The Tropical Andes Biodiversity Hotspot holds a remarkable amount of species at risk of extinction due to climate change and human activities. One of these species, the Critically Endangered yellow-tailed woolly monkey (Lagothrix flavicauda), has experienced alterations in its known geographical range, along with a recent sighting in the region Junín, 206 kilometers south of previous observations, calling for a re-evaluation of potential suitable habitat. In this thesis, I fit, evaluate, and apply predictions of a habitat suitability model within the country of Peru. I used a generalized linear modeling approach across various range constraints, incorporating bioclimatic variables, forest cover, distance to cities and elevation as predictor variables. Precipitation features most strongly influencing observations of species presence in my model and evaluation measures showed the elevation-constrained model accuracy to be around 95%. Habitat suitability maps illustrate novel areas of potentially suitable habitat in central Huánuco, Pasco, and limited areas in Junín. The newly discovered population was found to be in an area of low suitability, calling for further investigation of the species in this area. Areas of suitable habitat should be surveyed to decrease bias in occurrence data, increasing the accuracy of habitat modeling for this species. Surveying these areas may also reveal corridors of gene flow between these populations, and could facilitate landscape genetics studies to characterize the viability of this taxon. Better characterization of the true distribution of the species will provide information to conservation stakeholders in priority areas, helping to protect this species and associated threatened wildlife.

Les scénarios hydrologiques requis pour les études d'impacts hydrologiques nécessitent de disposer de scénarios météorologiques non biaisés et qui soient de surcroît adaptés aux échelles spatiales et temporelles des hydro-systèmes considérés. Les scénarios météorologiques obtenus en sortie brute des modèles de climat et/ou des modèles de prévision numérique du temps sont de ce fait non appropriées. Les sorties de ces modèles sont par suite souvent adaptées à l'aide de Méthodes de Descente d'Echelle Statistique (MDES). Depuis les années 2000, les MDES ont beaucoup été utilisées pour la génération de scénarios météorologiques en un site. En revanche, la génération de scénarios spatiaux couvrant de larges territoires est une tâche plus difficile, en particulier lorsque l'on souhaite respecter la cohérence spatiale des précipitations à prédire. Parmi les MDES usuelles, les approches basées sur la recherche de situations analogues passées permettent de satisfaire cette contrainte. Dans cette thèse, nous évaluons la capacité d'un Modèle Analog (MA) – où l'analogie porte sur les géopotentiels 1 000 et 500 hPa – pour la génération de scénarios de précipitation spatialement cohérents pour le territoire Français métropolitain. Dans un premier temps, la transposition spatiale du modèle MA est évaluée : le modèle s'avère utilisable pour la génération de scénarios spatiaux cohérents sur des territoires couvrant plusieurs dizaines de milliers de kilomètres carrés dès lors qu'aucune barrière climatique n'est rencontrée. Dans un second temps, nous évaluons la sensibilité des performances de prédiction à l'agrégation spatiale de la variable à prédire. L'augmentation de performance avec l'agrégation s'explique alors par la diminution de la variabilité du prédictand, pour autant que les variables de grande échelle considérées soient de bons prédicteurs pour la région considérée. Dans une dernière étude, nous explorons la possibilité d'améliorer la performance locale du modèle analogue par l'ajout de prédicteurs locaux. Le modèle combiné qui en résulte permet d'accroître sensiblement les performances de prédiction par l'adaptation du lien d'échelle sur la base d'un jeu de prédicteurs additionnels. Il apparaît de plus que la pertinence de ces prédicteurs dépend de la situation de grande échelle rencontrée ainsi que de la région considérée. / Hydrological scenarios required for the impact studies need to have unbiased meteorological scenarios adapted to the space and time scales of the considered hydro-systems. Hence, meteorological scenarios obtained from global climate models and/or numerical weather prediction models are not really appropriated. Outputs of these models have to be post-processed, which is often carried out thanks to Statistical Downscaling Methods (SDMs). Since the 2000's, SDMs are widely used for the generation of scenarios at a single site. The generation of relevant precipitation fields over large regions or hydro-systems is conversely not straightforward, in particular when the spatial consistency has to be satisfied. One strategy to fulfill this constraint is to use a SDM based on the search of past analog situations. In this PhD, we evaluate the ability of an Analog Model (AM) – where the analogy is applied to the geopotential heights 1000 and 500 hPa – for the generation of spatially coherent precipitation scenarios over the French metropolitan territory. In a first part, the spatial transferability of an AM is evaluated: the model appears to be usable for the generation of spatial coherent scenarios over territories covering several tens of thousands squared kilometers if no climatological barrier is met in between. In a second part, we evaluate the sensitivity of the prediction performance to the spatial aggregation of the predictand. The performance increases with the aggregation level as long as the large scale variables are good predictors of precipitation for the region under consideration. This performance increase has to be related to the decrease of the predictand variability. We finally explore the possibility of improving the local performance of the AM using additional local scale predictors. For each prediction day, the prediction is obtained from a parametric regression model, for which predictors and parameters are estimated from the analog dates. The resulting combined model noticeably allows increasing the prediction performance by adapting the downscaling link for each prediction day. The selected predictors for a given prediction depend on the large scale situation and on the considered region.

The classical Poisson, geometric and negative binomial regression models for count data belong to the family of generalized linear models and are available at the core of the statistics toolbox in the R system for statistical computing. After reviewing the conceptual and computational features of these methods, a new implementation of zero-inflated and hurdle regression models in the functions zeroinfl() and hurdle() from the package pscl is introduced. It re-uses design and functionality of the basic R functions just as the underlying conceptual tools extend the classical models. Both model classes are able to incorporate over-dispersion and excess zeros - two problems that typically occur in count data sets in economics and the social and political sciences - better than their classical counterparts. Using cross-section data on the demand for medical care, it is illustrated how the classical as well as the zero-augmented models can be fitted, inspected and tested in practice. (author's abstract) / Series: Research Report Series / Department of Statistics and Mathematics

The classical Poisson, geometric and negative binomial regression models for count data belong to the family of generalized linear models and are available at the core of the statistics toolbox in the R system for statistical computing. After reviewing the conceptual and computational features of these methods, a new implementation of hurdle and zero-inflated regression models in the functions hurdle() and zeroinfl() from the package pscl is introduced. It re-uses design and functionality of the basic R functions just as the underlying conceptual tools extend the classical models. Both hurdle and zero-inflated model, are able to incorporate over-dispersion and excess zeros-two problems that typically occur in count data sets in economics and the social sciences-better than their classical counterparts. Using cross-section data on the demand for medical care, it is illustrated how the classical as well as the zero-augmented models can be fitted, inspected and tested in practice. (authors' abstract)

Studies of the occurrence of montane and boreomontane species in ravines of the sandstone landscape are scarce and the occurrence of these species are explained by the presence of temperature inversion. The question is, which factors limit the occurrence ofthese species in ravines with temperature inversion. The aim of this diploma thesis is to reveal factors that influence the occurrence of Huperzia selago in inverse ravines of sandstone landscape. This work uses a habitat variables recorded directly for populations of H. selago and variables derived from a digital elevation model. These derived variables are also used for creation of two predictive models of geographic distribution of H. selago in the National Park Bohemian Switzerland. When we summarize the most informative variables of predictive models and habitat conditions significantly different from control sites, we get the typical habitat of H. selago. Such sites will likely be found on the rock at the bottom of the valley. Factors that influence the suitability of habitat are: moisture, vegetation type, slope, and distance to the bottom of the valley.

O modelo de referência para dados de contagem é o modelo de Poisson. A principal característica do modelo de Poisson é a pressuposição de que a média e a variância são iguais. No entanto, essa relação de média-variância nem sempre ocorre em dados observacionais. Muitas vezes, a variância observada nos dados é maior do que a variância esperada, fenômeno este conhecido como superdispersão. O objetivo deste trabalho constitui-se na aplicação de modelos lineares generalizados, a fim de selecionar um modelo adequado para acomodar de forma satisfatória a superdispersão presente em dados de contagem. Os dados provêm de um experimento que objetivava avaliar e caracterizar os parâmetros envolvidos no florescimento de plantas adultas da laranjeira variedade \"x11\", enxertadas nos limoeiros das variedades \"Cravo\" e \"Swingle\". Primeiramente ajustou-se o modelo de Poisson com função de ligação canônica. Por meio da deviance, estatística X2 de Pearson e do gráfico half-normal plot observou-se forte evidência de superdispersão. Utilizou-se, então, como modelos alternativos ao Poisson, os modelos Binomial Negativo e Quase-Poisson. Verificou que o modelo Quase-Poisson foi o que melhor se ajustou aos dados, permitindo fazer inferências mais precisas e interpretações práticas para os parâmetros do modelo. / The reference model for count data is the Poisson model. The main feature of Poisson model is the assumption that mean and variance are equal. However, this mean-variance relationship rarely occurs in observational data. Often, the observed variance is greater than the expected variance, a phenomenon known as overdispersion. The aim of this work is the application of generalized linear models, in order to select an appropriated model to satisfactorily accommodate the overdispersion present in the data. The data come from an experiment that aimed to evaluate and characterize the parameters involved in the flowering of orange adult plants of the variety \"x11\" grafted on \"Cravo\" and \"Swingle\". First, the data were submitted to adjust by Poisson model with canonical link function. Using deviance, generalized Pearson chi-squared statistic and half-normal plots, it was possible to notice strong evidence of overdispersion. Thus, alternative models to Poisson were used such as the negative binomial and Quasi-Poisson models. The Quasi-Poisson model presented the best fit to the data, allowing more accurate inferences and practices interpretations for the parameters.

Thesis (M. Environmental Science)--North-West University, Potchefstroom Campus, 2008.

This thesis investigates the influence of predator movements upon habitat selection and foraging success. It deals with two very distinct datasets one from a marine system, the snow crab (Chionoecetes opilio) fishery, and the second from a freshwater system, an experimental rainbow trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss) aquaculture operation. Deriving a standardized measure of catch from logbook data is important because catch per unit effort (CPUE) is used in fisheries analysis to estimate abundance, but it some cases CPUE is a biased estimate. For the snow crab fishery, a relative abundance measure was developed using fisher movements and logbook data that reflected commercially available biomass and produced an improved relative abundance estimate. Results from the aquaculture dataset indicate that escaped farmed rainbow trout continue to use the cage site when waste feed is available, while native lake trout do not interact with the cage. Once access to waste feed is removed, both lake trout and escaped rainbow trout do not use the cage site. This thesis uses methods to identify patterns and behaviours using movement tracks to increase our understanding of predator habitat usage.

This thesis investigates the influence of predator movements upon habitat selection and foraging success. It deals with two very distinct datasets one from a marine system, the snow crab (Chionoecetes opilio) fishery, and the second from a freshwater system, an experimental rainbow trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss) aquaculture operation. Deriving a standardized measure of catch from logbook data is important because catch per unit effort (CPUE) is used in fisheries analysis to estimate abundance, but it some cases CPUE is a biased estimate. For the snow crab fishery, a relative abundance measure was developed using fisher movements and logbook data that reflected commercially available biomass and produced an improved relative abundance estimate. Results from the aquaculture dataset indicate that escaped farmed rainbow trout continue to use the cage site when waste feed is available, while native lake trout do not interact with the cage. Once access to waste feed is removed, both lake trout and escaped rainbow trout do not use the cage site. This thesis uses methods to identify patterns and behaviours using movement tracks to increase our understanding of predator habitat usage.

Thesis (M. Environmental Science)--North-West University, Potchefstroom Campus, 2008.