1999年澳門回歸中國大陸後，博弈產業成為澳門經濟發展的龍頭。近十年來，伴隨著澳門人均GDP上升、博弈產業的豐厚利潤、政府稅收逐年提升等經濟急速發展的現象，使得澳門模式成為東亞國家競相模仿的對象，而博弈產業是否造成地方經濟產業單一化，或是帶動其他產業齊頭式發展，也是各界爭論的議題。特別在澳門與中國簽訂《內地與澳門關於建立更緊密經貿關係的安排》(CEPA)後，由於開放內地遊客「自由行」政策，使得博弈產業錦上添花。為了清楚瞭解博弈產業對澳門經濟發展到底造成何種影響，本文主要研究目的有以下兩點：一為探討博弈產業是否對澳門人均GDP是否造成影響，二為比較在「自由行」政策實施前後，博弈產業對澳門經濟的影響。 根據實證結果顯示，博彩消費、人口、公共支出、CEPA的簽訂，皆與澳門人均GDP呈現正向關係，證明了博弈產業的確影響澳門經濟發展甚大。但研究結果也顯示，博弈產業在「自由行」實施後，對澳門經濟影響力反而下降，因此本研究推論，在「自由行」實施前，澳門經濟大部分靠博彩業支撐，其他產業積弱不振；「自由行」實施後，其他產業得到發展機會，增長速度超越博彩業發展的速度，才會造成本研究實證結果。 總的來說，博彩業在澳門與中國簽訂CEPA後，反而減弱其影響力，表示在「自由行」實施後，其他產業並沒有隨著博彩業的壯大而消失，反而跟著博彩業一同成長，澳門產業結構並無朝向單一化，反而更加多元。帶動其他行業發展，有利建設先進、多元化的綜合城市。 / The gambling industry has become the leading industry in Macau since Macau return to China in 1999. This decade, accompanying with the rise of Macau’s GDP per capita, the huge profits the gambling industry, such as the phenomenon of rapid economic growth, making “Macau Pattern” become a model which East Asian countries compete to imitate. It is a controversial issue that if the gambling industry made the local industry more singlize or led other industry develop. Especially after Macao and China signed the "Mainland and Macao Closer Economic Partnership Arrangement" (CEPA), the opening up of the Mainland visitors as a result of "Free Trip" policy, helping the gambling industry develop rapidly. In order to clearly understand the game industry how to impact Macao's economic development, the purposes are to investigate the relationship between gambling industry and economic development of Macau. The empirical result shows: gambling consumption, population, public expenditure and CEPA signing have significant positive effects on economic development in Macau, Proving that the impact of the game industry is indeed a great economic development of Macau. The result also shows that after the signing of CEPA, gambling industry has fewer impact on economic development in Macau. Therefore, we infer that all industries except gambling industry were weak before “Free Trip”, and other industry got chance to develop after “Free Trip”. To sum up, the gambling industry is the main industry that affects the economic development in Macau. After “Free Trip”, other industries didn’t disappear or decline, all of them keep developing with gambling industry.

No description available.

L'acide ascorbique (AsA, vitamine C) est l'un des composés parmi les plus importants chez les eucaryotes. En raison de son potentiel antioxydant élevé, l'AsA représente un trait important de la qualité nutritionnelle des végétaux. Au-delà de sa valeur bénéfique pour la santé, une augmentation de la teneur en AsA des fruits bénéficierait probablement à la qualité post-récolte et à la résistance aux pathogènes. Pour mieux comprendre ces régulations chez les plantes et leurs impacts sur la qualité des fruits, une collection de tomates EMS hautement mutée (cv. Micro-Tom) a été criblée pour identifier des mutants dont les fruits sont enrichis en AsA. Cette stratégie de génétique directe associant le criblage à une approche de cartographie par séquençage devait permettre d’identifier de nouveaux gènes liés au caractère AsA+. L'un des mutants, noté P21H6, présentait un enrichissement en AsA de 2 à 4 fois supérieur à celui du WT, et fut le premier à être génétiquement caractérisé. Cette étude a permis de mettre en évidence une nouvelle classe de photorécepteurs impliqués dans la détection de la lumière bleue, appelée SlPLP, en tant que régulateur négatif de l'accumulation d'AsA dans la tomate. Le rôle de PLP dans le phénotype AsA+ du fruit a été confirmé par une stratégie de mutagenèse dirigée, avant d’entreprendre sa caractérisation fonctionnelle. Nous avons démontré que SlPLP interagit avec SlGGP (GDP-L-galactose phosphorylase), une enzyme clé de la voie du L-Galactose, sous contrôle de la lumière bleue et que cette interaction a lieu dans le cytoplasme et le noyau. Nos résultats renforcent le rôle central du GGP dans la biosynthèse de l'AsA et suggèrent un nouveau mécanisme de régulation par la lumière bleue de la fonction du GGP, en plus de son activité métabolique. Parallèlement, nous avons entrepris la caractérisation d’un autre mutant, le P17C5-3, qui présentait le plus fort taux d'AsA (jusqu'à 10 fois le WT). Outre le phénotype AsA+, le mutant P17C5 présentait de fortes altérations morphologiques, notamment l’absence de graines, rendant la mise en place de la stratégie de cartographie difficile. Grâce à un croisement avec la variété commerciale M82, la mutation causale pu être identifiée dans un ORF cis-régulateur en amont de GGP. Ce résultat confirme le rôle clé de GGP dans la voie L-Galactose. Des études préliminaires liées au phénotype parthénocarpique suggèrent un problème de stérilité mâle associé aux processus de développement du pollen. Enfin, dans l’étude de la qualité des fruits après la récolte, des expériences de stress froid effectuées avec les fruits P21H6 semblent démontrer que l’augmentation de la teneur en AsA améliore la durée de conservation et la capacité de maturation des fruits. Dans l'ensemble, nos résultats confirment la position clé de la protéine GGP dans la voie de biosynthèse de l'AsA, et fournissent des outils et du matériel végétal précieux pour décortiquer la régulation de l'AsA et son rôle physiologique dans la qualité des fruits et les caractères post-récolte. / Ascorbic acid (AsA, vitamin C) is one of the most important biochemical in living organisms. Due to its high antioxidant potential, AsA represents an important trait of nutritional quality in fruits and vegetables. In addition to its beneficial health value in fruit consumption, increasing fruit AsA content would likely affect postharvest quality and resistance to pathogens. Thus, understanding the regulation of AsA accumulation in order to improve crop species of agronomical interest is an important issue in plant breeding for many fleshy fruit species. To get a better understanding of the regulation of AsA level in plants and its impact on fruit quality, a highly mutagenized EMS tomato collection (cv. Micro-Tom) was screened for AsA+ fruit mutants. This forward genetic strategy combined with a mapping-by-sequencing approach, had allowed identifying new genes related to the AsA+ trait. One of the mutant line named P21H6, displayed an AsA-enrichment 2 to 4 fold that of the WT, and was the first to be genetically characterized. It allowed highlighting a new class of photoreceptor involved in blue light sensing named SlPLP as a negative regulator of AsA accumulation in tomato. We confirmed the role of the PLP in the fruit AsA+ phenotype using a directed mutagenesis strategy, undertaking its functional characterization. We demonstrate that PLP interacts with GGP (GDP-L-galactose phosphorylase), a key enzyme of the L-Galactose pathway, under blue light control and that this interaction takes place in the cytoplasm and the nucleus. Our results strengthen the central role of GGP in the AsA biosynthesis and suggest a new regulation mechanism by blue light of the GGP function in addition to its metabolic activity. Besides we started the characterization another mutant, the P17C5-3, which displayed the highest level of AsA (up to 10 times the WT). Beyond its AsA+ content, the P17C5 mutant showed strong morphological alterations including a seedless phenotype making the mapping difficult at first. Thanks to the crossing with the commercial M82 tomato cultivar, the causal mutation was identified in a cis-acting ORF, upstream of the GGP gene. This result confirmed the key role of GGP in the L-Galactose pathway. Preliminary studies related to the parthenocarpic phenotype suggest a problem of male sterility associated with pollen development processes. Finally, in the study of the post-harvest fruit quality, chilling stress experiments carried out with the P21H6 fruits seem to demonstrate that increasing AsA content improve the fruit shelf life and its maturation capacity. Taken as a whole, our results confirmed the key position of the GGP protein in the AsA biosynthesis pathway and they provided precious tools and plant material for deciphering the regulation of AsA and its physiological role in fruit quality and post-harvest traits.

Esta tese trata do desenvolvimento de métodos bioanalíticos, baseados na técnica de eletroforese capilar, para duas aplicações distintas: a análise de complexos formados pela ligação entre proteínas e DNA e detecção e monitoramento de hidrólise de GTP catalisada por enzimas. No primeiro capítulo descreve-se uma investigação sobre a viabilidade de ensaios tipo EMSA (?electrophoretic mobility shift assay?) em chips com microcanais para eletroforese. Os fatores de transcrição purificados c-Jun(AP1) e p-50(NFkB) foram usados nos estudos de ligação a sondas de DNA fita dupla contendo as seqüências consenso de ligação dos fatores AP1, NFkB e AP2. As sondas de DNA sintéticas continham como modificação a marcação com o corante fluorescente Cy5 ligado à extremidade 5?, sendo que as mesmas seqüências não marcadas foram usadas para experimentos de competição. Ensaios tipo EMSA em chip puderam ser realizados em cerca de 2 h com baixo consumo de amostra e sem a necessidade de usar marcação com material radioativo. A sondas de DNA e os complexos formados nas reações de ligação foram analisados no Bioanalyzer usando tanto o procedimento padrão para a análise de DNA quanto um protocolo modificado. Nesta modificação não foi usado corante de intercalação mas 4,9 nM de Cy5-dCTP que foi adicionado ao gel, permitindo apenas a detecção de DNA previamente marcado. Apesar da necessidade de ajustes no método para cada proteína testada, foi mostrado o potencial de se substituir o método de EMSA em gel por métodos baseados em eletroforese em chip. Um experimento de competição foi realizado com sucesso mostrando a ligação do fator de transcrição p-50 à sonda contendo a seqüência consenso NFkB. Este experimento foi considerado como prova de princípio para a hipótese estudada. No segundo capítulo relata-se o desenvolvimento de um método para a detecção e monitoramento in vitro de atividade nucleotídeo-trifosfatase. O método que se mostrou robusto e reprodutível foi aplicado para investigar a atividade GTPase de uma proteína recombinante contendo o domínio catalítico de uma septina humana SEPT4 / Bradeiona (GST-rDGTPase). O exemplo de aplicação demonstra que a técnica de eletroforese capilar pode substituir o método tradicionalmente usado com marcação radioativa para detecção de atividade GTPase inclusive em estudos de cinética enzimática. Os parâmetros cinéticos determinados para a GST-rDGTPase foram: vmax = 1.7 μ M min-1 ± 0.1 and Km = 1.0 mM ± 0.3; kcat = 9 x 10-3 SM-1. O efeito de co-fatores como Mg2+ and Mn2+ também foi estudado. O método analítico descrito também se mostrou útil para a análise de di- e trifosfatos de outros nucleotídeos. / This Thesis concerns on the development of capillary electrophoresis-based bioanalytical methods for two distinct applications: DNA-protein binding analysis and monitoring of enzyme-catalyzed GTP hydrolysis. In the first chapter, the feasibility of on-chip electrophoretic mobility-shift assays (EMSA) is investigated. Purified transcription factors c-Jun(AP1) and p-50(NFkB) were used for binding studies to dsDNA probes containing the consensus sequences from AP1, NFkB and AP2 regulatory sequences. DNA probes were modified at the 5?-end with the Cy5 and unlabeled oligos were used for competition experiments. On-chip-EMSA could be carried out within ca. 2 h with low sample consumption and no need to handle radioactive material. Both, the dsDNA probes and the shifted oligos from binding reactions were analyzed on the ?2100 Bioanalyzer? using either, the standard procedure for DNA analysis or a modified protocol, in which no intercalating dye was used. Instead, 4.9 nM Cy5-dCTP was added to the gel matrix allowing the detection of only Cy5-labeled DNA. Despite the need of specific adjustments for each protein, we have shown the potential for replacing slab gel-based EMSA for on-chip methods. A competition experiment to show sequence specific binding of the transcription factor p-50 to the consensus sequence NFkB is presented as a proof of principle. In chapter II, a capillary electrophoresis-based method for in vitro detection and monitoring of nucleotide-triphosphatase activity is described. This robust and reproducible method was used to investigate GTPase activity of a recombinant protein construct containing the catalytic domain of Human SEPT4 /Bradeion ? (GST-rDGTPase). The application example demonstrates that the capillary electrophoresis technique can replace classical radioactive methods for GTPase activity assays and may be used as a routine analytical tool. Enzyme kinetics of GST-rDGTPase was studied and yielded the following kinetic parameters: vmax = 1.7 μM min-1 ± 0.1 and Km = 1.0 mM ± 0.3; kcat = 9 x 10-3 s-1. In addition the effect of co-factors such as Mg2+ and Mn2+ in the catalytic activity was investigated. The described analytical method was also shown to be useful to analyze di- and triphosphated forms of other nucleotides.

Made available in DSpace on 2015-03-26T13:52:00Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 texto completo.pdf: 996773 bytes, checksum: 7322b4697c096a6f17a4388ca498fede (MD5) Previous issue date: 2014-02-17 / Fundação de Amparo a Pesquisa do Estado de Minas Gerais / The L-ascorbic acid (ALA) is produced naturally by plants from D-glucose. Yeasts synthesize a similar metabolite, D-eritroascorbic acid (ADEA). Although this compound does not show activity against scurvy, it contains an antioxidant function, but it is produced in low concentrations by the microorganism. Recently, in order to make yeasts are capable of converting D-galactose D-lactose from cheese whey into ALA, the wild strain Kluyveromyces lactis CBS2359 has been transformed with genes that integrate the L-galactose biosynthesis pathway, isolated from Arabidopsis thaliana. In the presence of intermediate L-galactose, ALA can be synthesized by yeast with enzymes responsible for ADEA production. It has been demonstrated that the engineered strain JVC 1-56 was able to synthesize ALA compared to the wild type, but the yield was still low. In this regard, studies to assist the increased of ALA production are relevant. Once the engineered ALA pathway and native cell wall formation pathway of K. lactis have a common intermediate, GDP-D-mannose, we need to evaluate the effect of uncoupling of vitamin C synthesis route of the growth that requires constant wall synthesis. Moreover, considering the antioxidant properties of ALA, the expectation is that the production of this metabolite increase when JVC 1-56 is exposed to a oxidative stress condition by menadione. In this context, this study investigated the both physiological conditions, using the media Yeast Galactose Base (YGB) and ultrafiltered cheese whey (SQU - byproduct of cheese industry that predominates lactose as carbon source). It was analyzed that Kluyveromyces lactis JVC 1-56 produces higher yields of ALA when it is grown for 96 hours in batch culture in the middle YPGal. Cultivation at low growth rates (0.04 h-1) predisposes the cells to synthesize more ALA per unit cell mass (0.80 mg/mg). However, the yield of continuous culture operated as quimostato, limiting the substrate nitrogen, still proved to be lower than expected in the batch (1.94 mg/mg). Oxidative stress by 12.5 mM menadione on K. lactis JVC1 -56, in the conditions applied, was not effective in the increasing the ALA production (1.47 mg/mg). Still, ADEA yield was higher than ALA in two strategies: 1.37 mg/mg at 0.21 h-1 in culture under steady state, 8.52 mg/mg in batch under oxidative stress and 10.33 mg/mg in the batch in the absence of oxidizing agent, indicating that ADEA may be in a more stable configuration than vitamin C. Finally, the permeate cheese whey remains a prospect for the conversion of lactose into a biotechnological product of higher value aggregate. / O ácido L-ascórbico (ALA) é produzido naturalmente por plantas a partir de D-glicose. Leveduras sintetizam um metabólito semelhante, o ácido D-eritroascórbico (ADEA). Embora este composto não mostre atividade contra o escorbuto, ele contém uma função antioxidante, mas é produzido pelo micro-organismo em baixas concentrações. Recentemente, com a finalidade de fazer as leveduras serem capazes de converter o componente D-galactose da D-lactose do soro de queijo em ALA, a linhagem selvagem de Kluyveromyces lactis CBS2359 foi transformada com genes, que integram a via de biossíntese de L-galactose, isolados de Arabidopsis thaliana. Na presença do intermediário L-galactose, ALA pode então ser sintetizado pela levedura com as enzimas responsáveis pela produção de ADEA. Foi demonstrado que a linhagem engenheirada JVC 1-56 foi capaz de sintetizar ALA em comparação com a selvagem, mas com baixo rendimento. Neste sentido, estudos que auxiliem o aumento da produção de ALA são relevantes. Uma vez que a via engenheirada da síntese de ALA e a via nativa da formação da parede celular de K. lactis possuem um intermediário comum, GDP-D-manose, faz-se necessário avaliar o efeito do desacoplamento da produção de ALA do crescimento que requer constante síntese da parede. Além disso, considerando a propriedade antioxidante do ALA, a expectativa é de que a produção deste metabólito aumentasse quando JVC 1-56 fosse exposta a uma condição de estresse oxidativo por menadiona. Neste contexto, este trabalho investigou as condições fisiológicas mencionadas utilizando os meios Yeast Galactose Base (YGB) e soro de queijo ultrafiltrado (SQU - subproduto de indústrias de queijo em que predomina lactose como fonte de carbono). Foi averiguado que Kluyveromyces lactis JVC 1-56 produz ALA com rendimentos maiores quando cultivada por 96 horas em batelada no meio YPGal. O cultivo em baixas velocidades de crescimento (0,04 h -1) predispõe as células a sintetizar mais ALA por unidade de massa celular (0,80 mg/mg). Entretanto, o rendimento da cultura contínua operada como quimostato, tendo nitrogênio como substrato limitante, ainda mostrou ser inferior ao previsto na batelada (1,94 mg/mg). Já o estresse oxidativo por 12,5 μM de menadiona sobre K. lactis JVC1- 56, nas condições aplicadas, não foi eficaz no aumento da produção de ALA (1,47 mg/mg). Ainda, o rendimento de ADEA foi superior ao de ALA nas duas estratégias: 1,37 mg/mg a 0,21 h-1 na cultura sob regime permanente, 8,52 mg/mg na batelada sob estresse oxidativo e 10,33 mg/mg na batelada na ausência do agente oxidante, indicando que ele pode estar em uma configuração mais estável do que a vitamina C. Finalmente, o permeado do soro de queijo continua sendo uma perspectiva para a conversão da lactose em um produto biotecnológico de maior valor agregado.

The main objective of this diploma thesis is to analyze the development of tax revenue as percentage of gross domestic product in the Czech Republic in years 1996 {--} 2007 and to assess the political and economic causes of this development. We use the macroeconomic indicator, so-called "Tax share" to compare the tax burden in time and area in individual countries. The Tax share is calculated as the ratio of tax revenue to GDP. We make a difference between tax revenue including social security contribution and tax revenue excluding social security contribution. This thesis is interested in tax revenue including social security. The first part of this thesis is focused on possibilities of comparing tax systems of individual countries, of their restrictions and confrontations. This part also explains what is the tax share exactly and the sorts of this macroeconomic indicator. The practical part of the thesis is dedicated to analysis of the development of tax revenue as percentage of GDP in the Czech Republic in years 1996 {--} 2007, according to methodology of Eurostat. There is comparation in time horizont. We also compare the tax burden of Czech repulic in the area, respectively in the European Union (in EU 15, EU 25 and in Slovakia {--} post communist country of EU) and in the states of OECD. The methodology of OECD is different from the methodology of Eurostat.

Esta tese trata do desenvolvimento de métodos bioanalíticos, baseados na técnica de eletroforese capilar, para duas aplicações distintas: a análise de complexos formados pela ligação entre proteínas e DNA e detecção e monitoramento de hidrólise de GTP catalisada por enzimas. No primeiro capítulo descreve-se uma investigação sobre a viabilidade de ensaios tipo EMSA (?electrophoretic mobility shift assay?) em chips com microcanais para eletroforese. Os fatores de transcrição purificados c-Jun(AP1) e p-50(NFkB) foram usados nos estudos de ligação a sondas de DNA fita dupla contendo as seqüências consenso de ligação dos fatores AP1, NFkB e AP2. As sondas de DNA sintéticas continham como modificação a marcação com o corante fluorescente Cy5 ligado à extremidade 5?, sendo que as mesmas seqüências não marcadas foram usadas para experimentos de competição. Ensaios tipo EMSA em chip puderam ser realizados em cerca de 2 h com baixo consumo de amostra e sem a necessidade de usar marcação com material radioativo. A sondas de DNA e os complexos formados nas reações de ligação foram analisados no Bioanalyzer usando tanto o procedimento padrão para a análise de DNA quanto um protocolo modificado. Nesta modificação não foi usado corante de intercalação mas 4,9 nM de Cy5-dCTP que foi adicionado ao gel, permitindo apenas a detecção de DNA previamente marcado. Apesar da necessidade de ajustes no método para cada proteína testada, foi mostrado o potencial de se substituir o método de EMSA em gel por métodos baseados em eletroforese em chip. Um experimento de competição foi realizado com sucesso mostrando a ligação do fator de transcrição p-50 à sonda contendo a seqüência consenso NFkB. Este experimento foi considerado como prova de princípio para a hipótese estudada. No segundo capítulo relata-se o desenvolvimento de um método para a detecção e monitoramento in vitro de atividade nucleotídeo-trifosfatase. O método que se mostrou robusto e reprodutível foi aplicado para investigar a atividade GTPase de uma proteína recombinante contendo o domínio catalítico de uma septina humana SEPT4 / Bradeiona (GST-rDGTPase). O exemplo de aplicação demonstra que a técnica de eletroforese capilar pode substituir o método tradicionalmente usado com marcação radioativa para detecção de atividade GTPase inclusive em estudos de cinética enzimática. Os parâmetros cinéticos determinados para a GST-rDGTPase foram: vmax = 1.7 μ M min-1 ± 0.1 and Km = 1.0 mM ± 0.3; kcat = 9 x 10-3 SM-1. O efeito de co-fatores como Mg2+ and Mn2+ também foi estudado. O método analítico descrito também se mostrou útil para a análise de di- e trifosfatos de outros nucleotídeos. / This Thesis concerns on the development of capillary electrophoresis-based bioanalytical methods for two distinct applications: DNA-protein binding analysis and monitoring of enzyme-catalyzed GTP hydrolysis. In the first chapter, the feasibility of on-chip electrophoretic mobility-shift assays (EMSA) is investigated. Purified transcription factors c-Jun(AP1) and p-50(NFkB) were used for binding studies to dsDNA probes containing the consensus sequences from AP1, NFkB and AP2 regulatory sequences. DNA probes were modified at the 5?-end with the Cy5 and unlabeled oligos were used for competition experiments. On-chip-EMSA could be carried out within ca. 2 h with low sample consumption and no need to handle radioactive material. Both, the dsDNA probes and the shifted oligos from binding reactions were analyzed on the ?2100 Bioanalyzer? using either, the standard procedure for DNA analysis or a modified protocol, in which no intercalating dye was used. Instead, 4.9 nM Cy5-dCTP was added to the gel matrix allowing the detection of only Cy5-labeled DNA. Despite the need of specific adjustments for each protein, we have shown the potential for replacing slab gel-based EMSA for on-chip methods. A competition experiment to show sequence specific binding of the transcription factor p-50 to the consensus sequence NFkB is presented as a proof of principle. In chapter II, a capillary electrophoresis-based method for in vitro detection and monitoring of nucleotide-triphosphatase activity is described. This robust and reproducible method was used to investigate GTPase activity of a recombinant protein construct containing the catalytic domain of Human SEPT4 /Bradeion ? (GST-rDGTPase). The application example demonstrates that the capillary electrophoresis technique can replace classical radioactive methods for GTPase activity assays and may be used as a routine analytical tool. Enzyme kinetics of GST-rDGTPase was studied and yielded the following kinetic parameters: vmax = 1.7 μM min-1 ± 0.1 and Km = 1.0 mM ± 0.3; kcat = 9 x 10-3 s-1. In addition the effect of co-factors such as Mg2+ and Mn2+ in the catalytic activity was investigated. The described analytical method was also shown to be useful to analyze di- and triphosphated forms of other nucleotides.

A history of statistical economic indicators in America, this dissertation uncovers the protracted struggle which took place in the nineteenth century over how economic life should be quantified, how social progress should be valued and how American prosperity should be measured. By revealing the historical origins of contemporary indicators such as Gross Domestic Product, and by uncovering the alternative measures that ended up on the losing side of history, this work denaturalizes the seemingly objective nature of modern economic indicators while offering a fresh take on the rise of American capitalism.

<p>The purpose of this thesis is to identify a general model to forecast GDP growth for the Baltic States, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania. If the model provides reliable results for these states, then the model should be able to forecast GDP growth for other countries of interest. Forecasts are made by using a reduced vector autoregressive (VAR) model. The VAR models make use of past values of Gross Domestic Product-Inflation-Unemployment as explanatory variables.</p><p>The performed forecasts have provided good results for horizons up to t+8. The forecasts for 2009 (t+12) are in line with those of several other actors. It is reasonable to assume that some of the forecasts for t+16 have reliable results. The Lithuanian forecast show a fall in GDP with 12.51 per cent in 2009 and a GDP growth of 4.23 per cent in 2010. The forecast for Estonia show that the GDP will decrease with 1.49 per cent in 2009 and 12.72 per cent in 2010. Finally the forecast for Latvia show a fall in GDP of 3.1 per cent in 2009 and 18 per cent in 2010. From the findings it is possible to conclude that the model provided reliable estimates of future levels of GDP for the Baltic States and the benchmark countries. This indicates that the model should be applicable on other countries of interest.</p>

The purpose of this bachelor thesis is to determine what type of causative relationship between FDI and GDP exists in Lithuania. The analysis includes assessment of the overall economic situation in the country, analysis of historical statistical data on FDI, overview of existing studies and regression analysis. The regression is performed in order to reveal the impact of various economic factors on GDP growth. The model in question includes such economic indicators as corruption perceptions level index, harmonized consumer price index, net export, foreign investments via liabilities and FDI. Firstly, Granger causality test is performed in order to see whether FDI Granger causes GDP. Then, after making corrections for sequences to be stationary, a regression is performed using ordinary least squares method. The results of the analysis show that there is no statistically significant impact of FDI on economic growth in Lithuania. Nevertheless, foreign investments of other type had a great influence on economic performance in the past several years. However, due to their nature economic growth could not be sustained. The reasons for FDI having no influence over the economic growth in Lithuania are seen in the fact of scarcity of the investments, country’s inability to attract foreign investors, corruption existence, and unstable taxing system. Recommendations are provided on the matter. / Darbo tikslas – nustatyti koks egzistuoja ryšys tarp tiesioginių užsienio investicijų (TUI) ir BVP augimo Lietuvoje. Darbe analizuojama dabartinė šalies ekonominė situacija, TUI statistiniai duomenys, apžvelgiama susijusi literatūra bei moksliniai straipsniai, atliekama regresinė analizė. Regresinės analizės tikslas – nustatyti kokią įtaką ekonominiam augimui daro į modelį įtraukti kintamieji. Į regresinį modelį įeina korupcijos lygio indeksas, suderintas vartotojų kainų indeksas, grynasis eksportas, kitos užsienio investicijos ir TUI. Pirmiausia atliekamas Grendžerio duomenų analizės testas, kuris nustato ar TUI gali dinamiškai paaiškinti BVP augimo tempus. Tuomet, atlikus laiko eilučių stacionarumo korekcijas, mažiausių kvadratų metodu įvertinama tiesinė regresija. Analizės rezultatai parodė, kad TUI neturi statistiškai reikšmingos įtakos ekonominiam augimui Lietuvoje. Tačiau kitos užsienio investicijos, pastaraisiais metais ekonominiam vystymuisi turėjo didelę įtaką, nors dėl jų pobūdžio, stabilus ekonomikos augimas nebuvo užtikrintas. Galima įvardinti pagrindines priežastis, dėl kurių TUI neturėjo įtakos ekonominiam augimui Lietuvoje – tai investicijų trūkumas, šalies nesugebėjimas pritraukti užsienio investuotojus, korupcija ir nestabili mokesčių sistema. Darbo pabaigoje pateikiamos rekomendacijos.