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The research work presented in this thesis describes the development and testing of a new data analysis methodology for the automated near real-time detection and approximate location of pipe bursts and other events which induce similar abnormal pressure/flow variations (e.g., unauthorised consumptions, equipment failures, etc.) in Water Distribution Systems (WDSs). This methodology makes synergistic use of several self-learning Artificial Intelligence (AI) and statistical/geostatistical techniques for the analysis of the stream of data (i.e., signals) collected and communicated on-line by the hydraulic sensors deployed in a WDS. These techniques include: (i) wavelets for the de-noising of the recorded pressure/flow signals, (ii) Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) for the short-term forecasting of future pressure/flow signal values, (iii) Evolutionary Algorithms (EAs) for the selection of optimal ANN input structure and parameters sets, (iv) Statistical Process Control (SPC) techniques for the short and long term analysis of the burst/other event-induced pressure/flow variations, (v) Bayesian Inference Systems (BISs) for inferring the probability of a burst/other event occurrence and raising the detection alarms, and (vi) geostatistical techniques for determining the approximate location of a detected burst/other event. The results of applying the new methodology to the pressure/flow data from several District Metered Areas (DMAs) in the United Kingdom (UK) with real-life bursts/other events and simulated (i.e., engineered) burst events are also reported in this thesis. The results obtained illustrate that the developed methodology allowed detecting the aforementioned events in a fast and reliable manner and also successfully determining their approximate location within a DMA. The results obtained additionally show the potential of the methodology presented here to yield substantial improvements to the state-of-the-art in near real-time WDS incident management by enabling the water companies to save water, energy, money, achieve higher levels of operational efficiency and improve their customer service. The new data analysis methodology developed and tested as part of the research work presented in this thesis has been patented (International Application Number: PCT/GB2010/000961).

This thesis estimates the spatial extent of chlorinated solvent contamination of the soil at the Naval Air Station, Dallas, then estimates the fate and transport of these contaminants, over time, using the Soil Transport and Fate database and the Vadose-Zone Interactive Processes (VIP) modeling software. Geostatistical analysis identifies two areas with serious chlorinated solvent contamination. Fate and transport modeling estimates that this contamination will degrade and disperse from the soil phase to below regulatory limits within one year, although there is a risk of groundwater contamination. Contaminants are estimated to persist in the water and air phases of the soil. Further sampling is recommended to confirm the results of this study.

L’objectif de ce travail est double : d’une part, il s’agit de développer une méthodologie intégrée pour la construction d’un modèle géomécanique ainsi que la représentation des incertitudes associées aux propriétés poro-élastiques des roches constitutives, en exploitant l’ensemble des données disponibles et en s’appuyant de façon cohérente sur les modèles de réservoir statique et dynamique classiquement utilisés par les géologues et les ingénieurs réservoir ; d’autre part, il s’agit d’analyser quel est l’impact des hétérogénéités géologiques, souvent négligées, dans la réponse mécanique du réservoir sollicité par son exploitation, et d’aboutir à des incertitudes sur les champs de contraintes et de déplacements, issues des incertitudes sur ces hétérogénéités et leurs paramètres mécaniques. Pour ce faire, une méthodologie intégrée s’appuyant sur des simulations géostatistiques a été développée. Après la construction du cadre géométrique 3D, le remplissage des propriétés au sein du réservoir suit une démarche de simulations géostatistiques 3D emboîtées, dans laquelle la représentation des hétérogénéités lithologiques conditionne la génération des propriétés poro-élastiques. La démarche consiste ensuite à représenter les incertitudes sur le modèle géomécanique par des ensembles de réalisations géostatistiques dont la réponse mécanique est alors calculée avec un simulateur mécanique aux éléments finis. Les incertitudes sur les champs de contraintes et de déformations sont déduites ensuite des différentes réponses mécaniques obtenues. La démarche a été mise en œuvre sur un réservoir réel, dans un environnement fluvio-deltaïque, produisant en Mer du Nord. Dans ce cadre, il a été démontré que les hétérogénéités du réservoir et leurs incertitudes influencent significativement les calculs des champs de contraintes et de déformations, ainsi que les risques mécaniques de rupture. Des incertitudes sur les quantités mécaniques analysées (premier invariant du tenseur des contraintes et subsidence) ont été aussi estimées / This work has two main objectives. The first one is to develop an integrated methodology allowing to build a 3D geomechanical model and also to image the uncertainties attached to the poro-mechanical properties of the constitutive rocks. This geomechanical model should be based on all related available data and should be consistent with the static and dynamic models, currently built by reservoir geologists and engineers. The second objective is to analyse the impact of geological heterogeneities, which are often neglected, in the mechanical response of the reservoir induced by its exploitation, and furthermore to derive uncertainties on the stress and deformation fields related to the uncertainties on the input properties of the geomechanical model. An integrated methodology based on geostatistical simulations is developed. First, the geometric frame is built; then an approach of embedded stochastic simulations is carried out to infill the different reservoir properties, the lithological description constraining the petrophysical and poro-elastic descriptions. The next step is to generate the mechanical responses of the stochastic realisations, using a finite-element mechanical simulator. The uncertainties on the resulting stress and displacement fields are then deduced from the multiple mechanical responses which are computed. This approach is demonstrated on a real field case, a fluvio-deltaic reservoir in North Sea. It is shown on this example that the reservoir heterogeneities and their uncertainties significantly influence the calculations of stress and strain fields, and also the risks of mechanical failure. Uncertainties on the mechanical quantities under analysis (first invariant of the stress tensor and subsidence) are also derived

Dans le cadre de la gestion de la ressource en eau, la connaissance des hétérogénéités des nappes alluviales représente un enjeu primordial. Ce travail de thèse, qui s’inscrit dans le programme du PIREN-Seine, s’est intéressé à la plaine alluviale de la Bassée, à l’amont de Paris, la plus large plaine alluviale de la Seine.Cette plaine alluviale joue le rôle d’une zone tampon contrôlant les flux entre le réseau de surface et un aquifère régional. Connaître les hétérogénéités sédimentaires est primordial pour la compréhension des écoulements et fait l’objet de ce travail.L’architecture à l’échelle kilométrique des dépôts alluviaux et la chronologie des nappes associées est établie. La géométrie du contact nappe-substrat, une vallée incisée, est estimée par krigeage. Une restitution paléo-hydrologique s’appuie sur les paléo-tracés préservés en surface des nappes alluviales. L’architecture fine des dépôts est restituée à partir de données de sondages converties en propriétés pétrophysiques et d’imagerie géoradar.La plaine de la Bassée correspond à deux terrasses étagées (Saalien terminal et Weichsélien) dans lesquelles sont emboîtées deux autres terrasses (Tardiglaciaire et Holocène).L’estimation de la géométrie du contact alluvions-substrat suggère la présence d’une rupture de pente liée à une érosion régressive durant le Weichsélien. Les faciès des différentes nappes sont assez semblables et dominés par des dépôts de forte perméabilité (sables et graviers). De faibles valeurs de perméabilités sont associées aux faciès de colmatage de chenaux et dépôts en masse.Les résultats obtenus sur la plaine de la Bassée méritent d’être confrontés et validés sur des affluents de la Seine (Marne, Yonne, Oise…) afin de proposer un modèle cohérent à l’échelle du bassin. / In the scope of water resource management, the characterization of alluvial plain architecture and heterogeneity represents a challenge. This PhD work which is part of the PIREN-SEINE program focuses on largest alluvial plain of the River Seine, “La Bassée”, located upstream of Paris.This alluvial plain can be considered as a buffer layer that controls the water fluxes between the fluvial system and the regional aquifers. Determining the sedimentary heterogeneities is essential for the comprehension of fluxes, this is the aim of this work.Kilometric scale architecture of the alluvial deposits and the associated alluvial sheets chronology are established. The geometry of the sheet-bedrock contact, an incised valley, is estimated by kriging interpolation. A paleohydrological restitution is based on the paleochannels preserved at the top of the alluvial sheets. The fine scale architecture of deposits is restored from sampling data converted into petrophysics properties and ground-penetrating radar acquisitions.The alluvial plain of La Bassée corresponds to two terraces (terminal Saalian and Weichselian) in which two other terraces are staircased (Late Glacial and Holocene).The estimated sheet-bedrock contact geometry suggests the presence of a knick-point related to a regressive erosion during the Weichselian. Sedimentary facies are very similar from one alluvial sheet to another, and are dominated by high permeability deposits (sand and gravel). Low permeability facies are associated to channel plugs and mass transport deposits.The infilling model of La Bassée region obtained in this study should be compared and validated on the River Seine tributaries (Marne river, Yonne river, Oise river…) to propose a coherent model at the basin scale.

Nas últimas três décadas, a bacia hidrográfica do rio Ji-Paraná, localizada no Estado de Rondônia, vem apresentando um cenário com altas taxas de desmatamento e intensificação do uso e manejo da terra, resultante dos projetos de colonização agrícola efetuados pelo Governo Federal. Nesse processo, as atividades agrícolas têm sido estabelecidas em ritmo muito acelerado e muitas vezes as características físicas da área são ignoradas como, por exemplo, o solo e a declividade do terreno, ocasionando o uso inadequado da terra e, consequentemente, a degradação dos recursos naturais. Este trabalho teve como objetivo geral identificar as relações entre o uso da terra e as características físicas da bacia do rio Ji-Paraná, tendo como foco a análise do uso sustentável do solo. Utilizou-se o sistema de classificação da capacidade de uso da terra com a entrada de dados referentes às características físicas e químicas dos solos e de declividade do terreno na bacia sob estudo e de quatro sub-regiões inseridas na mesma. Mapas de uso da terra foram utilizados, originados da classificação de imagens LANDSAT 7 ETM+ e CBERS-2, assim como outros mapas temáticos necessários para caracterização dos aspectos físicos. Além desses, mapas de distribuição espacial da capacidade de troca de cátions dos solos foram elaborados, através da interpolação de pontos de fertilidade do solo, os quais foram obtidos de levantamentos pedológicos realizados para o estado de Rondônia. Para o desenvolvimento da pesquisa foi empregado o Sistema de Informações Geográficas (SIG). Os principais programas utilizados para a conversão, edição, processamento e exposição dos planos de informação, bem como para o processamento de imagens, foram o SPRING 4.0, ERDAS 8.7 e ArcGIS 9.0. Para a análise geoestatística foi utilizado o programa GS+5.0. Os resultados indicam a predominância de baixos valores da capacidade de troca de cátions efetiva dos solos da bacia. Este fato é corroborado com a expressiva ocorrência de limitações ao uso da terra relacionadas à fertilidade do solo, conforme resultados gerados da classificação da capacidade de uso da terra. A análise integrada das classes de capacidade de uso com as classes de uso da terra permitiu realizar o diagnóstico de intensidade de uso das terras da bacia do rio Ji-Paraná e das sub-regiões. Os resultados mostram que as terras das áreas sob estudo estão, em sua maioria, sendo utilizadas abaixo da capacidade de suporte, ou seja, subutilizadas. Por outro lado, interferências da ação antrópica foram identificadas em áreas de preservação permanente, configurando cenário de uso inadequado, com maior ocorrência na região central da bacia. / In the last three decades, the Ji-Paraná river basin, located in the Rondônia State - Brazil experienced high deforestation rates and an intensification of the land use and management, as a result of the colonization projects from the Federal Government. Agricultural activities have been established rapidly, sometimes ignoring the physical characteristics of the land causing degradation of the natural resources. The objective of this research was to identify the relationships between land use and the physical characteristics of the Ji-Paraná river basin, focusing in the natural resources sustentability. The land use capacity classification system was used. Data about physical and chemical characteristics of the soil and land slope of the entire basin and four detailed sub-areas were used. Along with land use maps and other thematic maps necessary for the characterization of the physical aspects and the land use intensity. In addition, spatial distribution map of soil cation exchange capacity (CEC) were elaborated, through the interpolation of soil fertility sample points, obtained from soil maps of Rondônia state. The programs SPRING 4.0, ERDAS 8.7 and ArcGIS 9 were used for conversion, edition, processing and exhibition of thematic maps and image processing. The program GS+5.0 was used for the geostatistical analisys. Results indicate the prevalence of low CEC values in the basin. This fact is corroborated with the expressive occurrence of land use limitations due to low soil fertility, according to results obtained in the land use capacity classification. The integrated analysis of the land use capacity map with the current land use resulted in the evaluation of land use intensity of the Ji-Paraná river basin and sub-areas. Results show that the land of the study area, in its majority, are being used below the support capacity, i.e., sub-used. On the other hand, interferences of the antropic action were identified in areas of preservation, configuring scenery of inadequate use, with larger occurrence in the central area of the basin.

Nas últimas três décadas, a bacia hidrográfica do rio Ji-Paraná, localizada no Estado de Rondônia, vem apresentando um cenário com altas taxas de desmatamento e intensificação do uso e manejo da terra, resultante dos projetos de colonização agrícola efetuados pelo Governo Federal. Nesse processo, as atividades agrícolas têm sido estabelecidas em ritmo muito acelerado e muitas vezes as características físicas da área são ignoradas como, por exemplo, o solo e a declividade do terreno, ocasionando o uso inadequado da terra e, consequentemente, a degradação dos recursos naturais. Este trabalho teve como objetivo geral identificar as relações entre o uso da terra e as características físicas da bacia do rio Ji-Paraná, tendo como foco a análise do uso sustentável do solo. Utilizou-se o sistema de classificação da capacidade de uso da terra com a entrada de dados referentes às características físicas e químicas dos solos e de declividade do terreno na bacia sob estudo e de quatro sub-regiões inseridas na mesma. Mapas de uso da terra foram utilizados, originados da classificação de imagens LANDSAT 7 ETM+ e CBERS-2, assim como outros mapas temáticos necessários para caracterização dos aspectos físicos. Além desses, mapas de distribuição espacial da capacidade de troca de cátions dos solos foram elaborados, através da interpolação de pontos de fertilidade do solo, os quais foram obtidos de levantamentos pedológicos realizados para o estado de Rondônia. Para o desenvolvimento da pesquisa foi empregado o Sistema de Informações Geográficas (SIG). Os principais programas utilizados para a conversão, edição, processamento e exposição dos planos de informação, bem como para o processamento de imagens, foram o SPRING 4.0, ERDAS 8.7 e ArcGIS 9.0. Para a análise geoestatística foi utilizado o programa GS+5.0. Os resultados indicam a predominância de baixos valores da capacidade de troca de cátions efetiva dos solos da bacia. Este fato é corroborado com a expressiva ocorrência de limitações ao uso da terra relacionadas à fertilidade do solo, conforme resultados gerados da classificação da capacidade de uso da terra. A análise integrada das classes de capacidade de uso com as classes de uso da terra permitiu realizar o diagnóstico de intensidade de uso das terras da bacia do rio Ji-Paraná e das sub-regiões. Os resultados mostram que as terras das áreas sob estudo estão, em sua maioria, sendo utilizadas abaixo da capacidade de suporte, ou seja, subutilizadas. Por outro lado, interferências da ação antrópica foram identificadas em áreas de preservação permanente, configurando cenário de uso inadequado, com maior ocorrência na região central da bacia. / In the last three decades, the Ji-Paraná river basin, located in the Rondônia State - Brazil experienced high deforestation rates and an intensification of the land use and management, as a result of the colonization projects from the Federal Government. Agricultural activities have been established rapidly, sometimes ignoring the physical characteristics of the land causing degradation of the natural resources. The objective of this research was to identify the relationships between land use and the physical characteristics of the Ji-Paraná river basin, focusing in the natural resources sustentability. The land use capacity classification system was used. Data about physical and chemical characteristics of the soil and land slope of the entire basin and four detailed sub-areas were used. Along with land use maps and other thematic maps necessary for the characterization of the physical aspects and the land use intensity. In addition, spatial distribution map of soil cation exchange capacity (CEC) were elaborated, through the interpolation of soil fertility sample points, obtained from soil maps of Rondônia state. The programs SPRING 4.0, ERDAS 8.7 and ArcGIS 9 were used for conversion, edition, processing and exhibition of thematic maps and image processing. The program GS+5.0 was used for the geostatistical analisys. Results indicate the prevalence of low CEC values in the basin. This fact is corroborated with the expressive occurrence of land use limitations due to low soil fertility, according to results obtained in the land use capacity classification. The integrated analysis of the land use capacity map with the current land use resulted in the evaluation of land use intensity of the Ji-Paraná river basin and sub-areas. Results show that the land of the study area, in its majority, are being used below the support capacity, i.e., sub-used. On the other hand, interferences of the antropic action were identified in areas of preservation, configuring scenery of inadequate use, with larger occurrence in the central area of the basin.

Submitted by Rosivalda Pereira (mrs.pereira@ufma.br) on 2017-08-14T17:54:04Z No. of bitstreams: 1 JoaoDallysonAlmeida.pdf: 4607146 bytes, checksum: 8e76d2b2ba34e77fcc3d20c8cfa92e17 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2017-08-14T17:54:05Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 JoaoDallysonAlmeida.pdf: 4607146 bytes, checksum: 8e76d2b2ba34e77fcc3d20c8cfa92e17 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2010-02-12 / Strabismus is a pathology that affects about 4% of the population causing aesthetic problems, reversible at any age, and irreversible tensorial alterations, modifying the vision mechanism. Hirschberg's test is one of the available exams to detect such pathology. Computer Aided Diagnosis and Detection Systems have been used with relative success to help health professionals. Nevertheless, the increasingly application of high technology resources to help diagnosis and therapy in ophthalmology is not a reality in the Strabismus sub-specialty. This way, the present work has the objective of introduing a methodology for automatic detection Strabismus in digital images through Hirschberg's test. For such, it is organized in four stages: finding the region of the eyes, precise location of the eyes, limb and bright, and identi cation of Strabismus The methodology presents results of 100% of sensibility, 91,3% of specificity and 94% of match in the identification of Strabismus, comproving the eficiency of the geostatistical functions in the extraction of the texture of the eyes and of the calculations of the alignment between eyes in digital images acquired from Hirschberg's test. / O estrabismo é uma patologia que afeta cerca de 4% da população provocando problemas estéticos, reversíveis a qualquer idade, e alterações sensoriais irreversíveis, modificando o mecanismo da visão. O teste de Hirschberg é um dos tipos de exames existentes para detectar tal patologia. Sistemas de Detecção e Diagnóstico auxiliados por computador (Computer Aided Detection/Diagnosis) estão sendo usados com relativo sucesso no auxílio aos profissionais de saúde. No entanto, o emprego cada vez mais rotineiro de recursos de alta tecnologia, no auxílio diagnóstico e terapêutico em oftalmologia, não é uma realidade dentro da subespecialidade estrabismo. Sendo assim, o presente trabalho tem como objetivo apresentar uma metodologia para detectar automaticamente o estrabismo em imagens digitais através do teste de Hirschberg. Para tal, o estudo está organizado em quatro fases: localização da região dos olhos, localização precisa dos olhos, localização do limbo e do brilho, e identificação do estrabismo. A metodologia apresenta resultados de 100% de sensibilidade, 91,3% de especificidade e 94% de acerto na identificação do estrabismo comprovando a eficiência das funções geoestatísticas na extração de textura dos olhos e do cálculo da alinhamento entre os olhos em imagens digitais adquiridas a partir do teste de Hirschberg.

Os delineamentos sistemáticos são usados nas mais diversas áreas, como: florestal, horticultura, solos, etc. Na área florestal, os delineamentos sistemáticos são freqüentemente usados para estudos preliminares e têm o objetivo de testar o maior número de espaçamentos possíveis. No entanto, existem algumas limitações para a sua utilização. A primeira é o arranjo sistemático (não casualizado) das plantas, que não permite o uso das análises convencionais. A segunda é a alta sensibilidade para valores perdidos. Quando uma planta é perdida, o espaçamento das plantas vizinhas é alterado, assim esses valores não podem ser incluídos no conjunto de dados e informações consideráveis são excluídas das análises. O objetivo deste trabalho foi aplicar a metodologia geoestatística para identificação de dependência espacial em um experimento em delineamento sistemático tipo "leque", levando-se em consideração: a eliminação dos dados das plantas vizinhas aos valores perdidos e as informações de ocorrência de parcelas perdidas e o tempo que ocorreram. Os dados de volume sólido por planta utilizados neste trabalho são provenientes de um experimento de espaçamento de Eucalyptus dunnii em delineamento sistemático tipo "leque". Neste trabalho foram utilizados os dados referentes ao sexto ano, idade comercial de corte da espécie, com os seguintes procedimentos: eliminação dos dados das plantas vizinhas às plantas mortas (Modelo I); as informações de mortes das plantas foram consideradas como uma covariável no modelo (Modelo II) e além da covariável morte das plantas, também foi levado em consideração o tempo da ocorrência da morte (Modelo III). Os parâmetros do semivariograma foram estimados pelo método de máxima verossimilhança e para seleção de modelos, utilizou-se o Critério de Akaike (AIC). Os resultados obtidos permitem concluir que se identificou uma fraca dependência espacial, o que não justificaria considerá-la com a aplicação de um modelo geoestatístico. A função de correlação que apresentou melhor desempenho foi a Matérn com k = 2 para os três modelos considerados. Comparando-se esses modelos e seguindo o critério de Akaike, o modelo mais adequado foi o II, pois apresentou menor valor de AIC. / Systematic designs are utilized in many areas, such as: forestry, horticulture, soils, etc. In forestry, the systematic designs are frequently used for preliminary studies and they aim at evaluating the largest number of possible spacings. However, there are some limitations on their use. The first limitation is the systematic design (non-randomized) of plants, which does not allow the use of conventional analyses. The second is the high sensitivity to lost values. When a plant is lost, the neighboring plant spacings are altered, so these values cannot be added to the data collection, and a great sum of information is excluded from the analyses. This study aimed at applying geostatistical methods to identify the spatial dependence in the data analysis of a fan systematic design experiment, taking into account: the exclusion of neighboring plant data to the lost values and the information regarding the occurrence of lost parcels as well as the time of their occurrence. The plant solid volume data utilized in this study were taken from a fan systematic design Eucalyptus dunnii spacing study. The data utilized were referent to the sixth year, commercial age for cutting of the specie, with the following procedures exclusion of the data from a neighboring plant next to a dead tree (Model I); the information of tree mortality as covariable in the model (Model II); and the time of occurrence of tree mortality, besides the tree mortality covariable (Model III). The semivariogram parameters were estimated by the maximum likelihood method, and the model selection was done by the utilization of the Akaike's Information Criterion (AIC). It was possible to conclude from the result analyses that there is a weak spatial dependence, which does not justify neither taking it into account nor the utilization of a geostatistical model. The correlation function that showed the best performance was the Matérn, with kappa=2 for the three models considered. By the comparison of these three models and the utilization of the Akaike's Information Criterion, the most suitable model was Model II, as it showed lower AIC value.

This dissertation analyzes the spatial distribution and kinematics of the Late Cenozoic Basin and Range (BR) and cross normal fault (CF) systems and their related graben basins around the Snake River Plain (SRP), and investigates the spatio-temporal patterns of lavas that were erupted by the migrating Yellowstone hotspot along the SRP, applying a diverse set of GIS-based spatial statistical techniques. The spatial distribution patterns of the normal fault systems, revealed by the Ripley's K-function, display clustered patterns that correlate with a high linear density, maximum azimuthal variation, and high box-counting fractal dimensions of the fault traces. The extension direction for normal faulting is determined along the major axis of the fractal dimension anisotropy ellipse measured by the modified Cantor dust method and the minor axis of the autocorrelation anisotropy ellipse measured by Ordinary Kriging, and across the linear directional mean (LDM) of the fault traces. Trajectories of the LDMs for the cross faults around each caldera define asymmetric sub-parabolic patterns similar to the reported parabolic distribution of the epicenters, and indicate sub-elliptical extension about each caldera that may mark the shape of hotspot’s thermal doming that formed each generation of cross faults. The decrease in the spatial density of the CFs as a function of distance from the axis of the track of the hotspot (SRP) also suggests the role of the hotspot for the formation of the cross faults. The parallelism of the trend of the exposures of the graben filling Sixmile Creek Formation with the LDM of their bounding cross faults indicates that the grabens were filled during or after the CF event. The global and local Moran’s I analyses of Neogene lava in each caldera along the SRP reveal a higher spatial autocorrelation and clustering of rhyolitic lava than the coeval basaltic lava in the same caldera. The alignment of the major axis of the standard deviational ellipses of lavas with the trend of the eastern SRP, and the successive spatial overlap of older lavas by progressively younger mafic lava, indicate the migration of the centers of eruption as the hotspot moved to the northeast.