This article explores the shifting relationship between the state and the rural elites in Sichuan during the last decades of the Qing dynasty through the lens of taxation and public debt by using a creditor-debtor model as a theoretical framework. Sichuan’s unique rewarded land tax surcharge, called the “Contribution” and levied since 1864, established a relationship of symbolic and economic indebtedness of the imperial and local state to the taxpayer. Western-inspired reforms after 1898 directly attacked the symbolic and economic bonds established by the Contribution. The Railway Rent Share tax shifted the creditor-debtor relationship from the state to the public Sichuan-Hankou Railway Company by making individual taxpayers into shareholders. When Beijing eventually banned what it saw as a privatization of taxation and decided to nationalize the railway company, this ignited the Railway Protection Movement, which precipitated the 1911 Revolution in Sichuan.

Submitted by Edson Gonçalves (edson@fgvmail.br) on 2010-05-10T13:51:10Z No. of bitstreams: 1 tese_Edson_Goncalves.pdf: 1334018 bytes, checksum: d7eb1a61391b756633a44e15e6a641e2 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Daniella Santos(daniella.santos@fgv.br) on 2010-05-10T14:08:24Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 tese_Edson_Goncalves.pdf: 1334018 bytes, checksum: d7eb1a61391b756633a44e15e6a641e2 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2010-05-10T17:13:05Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 tese_Edson_Goncalves.pdf: 1334018 bytes, checksum: d7eb1a61391b756633a44e15e6a641e2 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2009-12-07 / The three essays in this thesis develop extensions and applications of Real Options Theory, related to very important policy issues in Brazil. The first one presents a pioneering analysis of bioprospecting, or the exploitation of biodiversity, driven by economic goals. Two alternative structures for the contractual arrangements between government and private sector, within the purpose of a sustainable economic use of the Brazilian biodiversity, are designed: (i) a R&D Project model, with uncertain maturity, in which the intensity of the Poisson process driving the maturity time is explicitly dependent on the biodiversity level at the granted location; (ii) a principal agent model, in which the State grants the exercise of an investment option to the biotech research firm. The second essay moves forward the analogy between put options and import quotas. The relevant parameters for pricing quota licenses are now endogenously obtained, via the interaction between an importing firm and domestic producers. Finally, the third paper makes an original analysis of the unofficial market for 'precatórios' a class of government bonds in Brazil, tied to specific federal, state or municipal debts. A model for pricing these securities, taking into account the current institutional environment affecting them at all three levels, is presented and calibrated. / Esta tese é composta por três artigos, nos quais são apresentadas extensões e aplicações da Teoria das Opções Reais, todas de interesse para formuladores de política econômica no Brasil. O primeiro faz uma análise original da questão da bioprospecção, ou a exploração da diversidade biológica para fins econômicos. Duas estruturas alternativas para o desenho do mecanismo de concessão, visando o uso sustentável da biodiversidade brasileira, são sugeridas: (i) um modelo de projetos de P&D com maturidade incerta, no qual a intensidade do processo de Poisson que governa o tempo de maturação é explicitamente dependente do nível da biodiversidade no local concedido; (ii) um modelo de Agente-Principal, onde o Estado delega o exercício da opção de investimento à empresa de pesquisa biotecnológica. O segundo artigo avança a analogia entre opções de venda ('put options') e cotas de importação. Os parâmetros relevantes para apreçar as licenças são agora obtidos endogenamente, a partir da interação entre a firma importadora e os produtores domésticos. Por fim, no terceiro, é feita análise pioneira do mercado paralelo de títulos precatórios no Brasil. Um modelo para a valoração de tais títulos é construído e proposto, tendo por base o arcabouço institucional existente sobre o assunto, tanto no governo central, como nos estados e municípios.

This thesis investigates the use of realized volatility features from high frequency data in com- bination with neural networks to improve forecasts of the yield curve of government bonds. I use high frequency data on futures of four U.S. Treasury securities to estimate the Nelson-Siegel yield curve and realized variance of its parameters over the period of 25 years. The estimated parameters are used in prediction of the level, slope and curvature of the yield curve using an LSTM neural network and compared to the Dynamic Nelson-Siegel model. Results show that the use of realized variance and neural network outperforms autoregressive methods in prediction of the level and curvature in daily and monthly forecasts. The yield curve of government bonds itself has a predictive power on multiple macroeconomic variables, therefore improvements in its forecastability may have broader implications on forecasting the overall state of the economy.

This diploma thesis surveys debt instruments used in OECD and European Union member countries for financing central government deficits and the techniques of selling government bonds. The volume and structure of the central government deficit and debt in the Czech Republic as well as organization of debt management office are subjected to a detailed analysis. Debt management accomplishments are confronted with the set out strategy and its objectives. The thesis also consists of the characteristics of securities in use (treasury bills, medium-term and long-term government bonds) as well as of legal regulations of auctions by which the securities are placed on the domestic market. An independent subchapter is dedicated to foreign issues of bonds.

Thesis deals with the attraction of Czech government bonds from the perspective of foreign investors in relation with the current economic development in CEE region, and further in the rest of the world. Analysis is targeted to issue of the Czech government bonds in turn of 2009 and 2010. After the analysis and description of foreign investors representing huge part of the entire demand for the Czech government bonds on the domestic and foreign markets the paper further covers individual pros and cons of the instrument. The empirical analysis is conducted as the comparison of the yields and risk of Czech goventment bonds with the similar instruments issued by Hungarian and Slovakian governments. Separate part of the thesis covers the characteristics of used instruments (Czech T-Notes and T-Bills) and legal adjustments of the auctions through which these instruments are placed on the domestic market. Thesis also contains a separate chapters covering the results of former issues of the Czech government bonds abroad and the analysis of tax consequences resulting from holding and selling the Czech government bonds by foreign investors.

Volatility is an important variable in financial markets, risk management and making investment decisions. Different volatility models are beneficial tools to use when predicting future volatility. The purpose of this study is to compare the accuracy of various volatility models, including ARCH, GARCH and extensions of the GARCH framework. The study applies these volatility models to the Swedish and American Fixed Income Market for government bonds. The performance of these models is based on out-of-sample forecasting using different loss functions such as RMSE, MAE and MSE, specifically investigating their ability to forecast future volatility. Daily volatility forecasts from daily bid prices from Swedish and American 2, 5- and 10-year governments bonds will be compared against realized volatility which will act as the proxy for volatility. The result show US government bonds, excluding the US 2 YTM, did not show any significant negative volatility, volatility asymmetry or leverage effects. In overall, the ARCH and GARCH models outperformed E-GARCH and GJR-GARCH except the US 2-year YTM showing negative volatility, asymmetry, and leverage effects and the GJR-GARCH model outperforming the ARCH and GARCH models. / Volatilitet är en viktig variabel på finansmarknaden när det kommer till både riskhantering samt investeringsbeslut. Olika volatilitets modeller är fördelaktiga verktyg när det kommer till att göra prognoser av framtida volatilitet. Syftet med denna studie är att jämföra det olika volatilitetsmodellerna ARCH, GARCH och förlängningar av GARCH-ramverket för att ta reda på vilken av modellerna är den bästa att prognosera framtida volatilitet. Studien kommer tillämpa dessa modeller på den svenska och amerikanska marknaden för statsskuldväxlar. Prestandan för modellerna kommer baseras på out-of-sample prognoser med hjälp av det olika förlustfunktionerna RMSE, MAE och MSE. Förlustfunktionernas används endast till att undersöka deras förmåga till att prognostisera framtida volatilitet. Dagliga volatilitetsprognoser baseras på dagliga budpriser för amerikanska och svenska statsobligationer med 2, 5 och 10 års löptid. Dessa kommer jämföras med verklig volatilitet som agerar som Proxy för volatiliteten. Resultatet tyder på att amerikanska statsobligationer förutom den tvååriga, inte visar signifikant negativ volatilitet, asymmetri i volatilitet samt hävstångseffekt. De tvååriga amerikanska statsobligationerna visar bevis för negativ volatilitet, hävstångseffekt samt asymmetri i volatiliteten. ARCH och GARCH modellerna presterade övergripande sett bäst för både svenska och amerikanska statsobligationer förutom den tvååriga där GJR-GARCH modellen presterade bäst.

Bond markets are crucial for the stability and efficiency of the national financial system. Low liquidity prevents market developments and makes investors reluctant to trade actively. It is therefore crucial to maintain liquidity in bond markets. This thesis aims to investigate investor activity and liquidity in the Swedish government and mortgage bond markets. By creating indices using a combination of public trading data (actual trades) and private trading data (potential trades) to measure investor activity, a new liquidity proxy is created. The indices capture two aspects of investor activity, both the quantity of the bonds as well as the trading frequency. High levels of activity imply a liquid market and low levels of activity imply a lack of liquidity. Since Swedish and international investors are exposed to different risks even when investing in the same market, this thesis has segmented investors into four groups: Swedish investors in the government bond market, Swedish investors in the mortgage bond market, foreign investors in the government bond market and foreign investors in the mortgage bond market. To further understand the driving factors of market activity, regression analysis is conducted. From the existing literature a total of 11 potential explanatory variables have been identified. Due to the various market conditions in each investor group, it is no surprise that the variables influence the groups differently. Bond market return, short term interest rate and term risk structure are found to be highly significant for all investor groups. Moreover, stock market return and macroeconomic news are identified to be relevant variables when explaining shifts in investor behaviour. Positive developments in bond and stock market returns boost investor activity, while negative developments halt activity. Short term interest rate and the term risk spread are found to have similar effects, positive influence in the government bond market and negative influence in the mortgage bond market. For international investors, two spreads reflecting Swedish market conditions in relation to international benchmarks are included in the analysis. Both spreads are found to be highly significant, indicating that foreign investors choose to trade in the bond markets with the most desirable conditions. / En välfungerande obligationsmarknad är avgörande för ett lands finansiella stabilitet. Brist på likviditet hindrar marknadsutveckling och medför att investerare blir ovilliga att handla aktivt. Det är därför viktigt att behålla likviditeten i obligationsmarknader. Den här uppsatsen undersöker aktiviteten och likviditeten i de svenska marknaderna för statsobligationer och bostadsobligationer. För att mäta aktiviteten har en kombination av offentlig handelsdata (utförda transaktioner) och privat handelsdata (potentiella transaktioner) använts. Den uppmätta aktiviteten avspeglar storleken på transaktionerna såväl som frekvensen av transaktionerna. Hög aktivitet i marknaden indikerar att likviditeten på marknaden är hög, låg aktivitet indikerar att det råder brist på likviditet i marknaden. Svenska och internationella investerare kan uppleva olika marknadsförhållanden och utsättas för olika risker även när man handlar i samma marknad. Därför har den här studien valt att dela upp investerarna i fyra olika grupper; svenska investerare av statsobligationer, svenska investerare av bostadsobligationer, utländska investerare av statsobligationer och utländska investerare av bostadsobligationer. För att förstå de underliggande faktorerna som driver dessa investerargruppen att vara aktiva på marknaden har regressionsanalys med 11 förklarande variabler använts. På grund av de olika marknadsförhållandena för svenska och utländska investerare, skiljer sig även de drivande faktorerna. Avkastning på obligationsmarknaderna, kortfristiga räntesatsen samt löptidsstrukturen för obligationer visar sig vara signifikanta för alla investerargrupper. Dessutom tyder resultaten på att avkastningen på aktiemarknaden och makroekonomiska nyheter också har betydande inflytande på aktivitet. Positiv utveckling i obligationsmarknaden och aktiemarknaden stimulerar marknadsaktivitet. Den kortfristiga räntan och löptidsstrukturen visar sig ha liknande effekter, positivt inflytande på marknaden för statsobligationer och negativt inflytande på marknaden för bostadsobligationer. För internationella investerare har även två spreadar som återspeglar svenska marknadsförhållanden i relation med utländska marknadsförhållanden inkluderats i regressionsanalysen. Båda spreadarna visar sig vara betydande för utländska investerare. Detta tyder på att utländska investerare väljer att vara aktiva i den marknaderna som de anser ha de mest önskvärda handelsförhållandena.

La mise en finance de la dette d'Etat, et les crises auxquelles elle donne lieu, font de l'instauration d'un cadre juridique régissant la restructuration et le défaut des dettes d'Etat, un enjeu majeur pour l'Europe. En l'absence d'un droit européen de la « faillite » d'Etat, un régime de défaut a émergé sur le terrain de la pratique, dans les contrats d'emprunt d'Etat obligataires. Les Etats européens ont en effet privilégié une approche décentralisée et volontaire de la restructuration des dettes d'Etat : le contrat d'emprunt d'Etat établit les règles qui organisent les relations de dette entre les Etats débiteurs et leurs créanciers privés. Sous l'effet de l'intégration financière européenne, ce régime de défaut revêt des formes de plus en plus standardisées. Le présent travail consiste à identifier les éléments constitutifs du régime contractuel de défaut des Etats européens, à en apprécier le caractère idoine à l'aune des besoins de l'Etat et à en évaluer la portée. Il adopte pour ce faire une méthode pragmatique, basée sur une analyse empirique des contrats et une étude de cas.Il ressort de celles-ci que le régime de défaut contractuel des Etats européens conduit à l'abandon, l'érosion voire la suppression des prérogatives exorbitantes de droit commun qui étaient traditionnellement attachées à la qualité de souverain des Etats emprunteurs. D'une part, les Etats consentent, pour assurer l'attractivité de leurs titres de créance sur le marché européen très concurrentiel des dettes d'Etat, à adopter des dispositions attentatoires à leur souveraineté, qui les privent de la marge de manœuvre nécessaire à l'adoption de mesures de sauvegarde adaptées en cas de crise de la dette. D'autre part, les deux principaux fors compétents - les juridictions anglaises et new-yorkaises - ont consacré la force obligatoire des contrats d'emprunt d'Etat, lesquels priment les considérations d'intérêt général qui jadis fondaient le défaut souverain. En effet, la jurisprudence libérale de ces fors, favorables aux créanciers de l'Etat, ont encouragé la professionnalisation des requérants et le développement d'une industrie contentieuse du défaut d'Etat, communément désignée comme l'industrie des « fonds vautours». Les stratégies contentieuses agressives déployées par ces nouveaux acteurs ont permis d'obtenir la condamnation des Etats défaillants et des mesures de contrainte sur le terrain encore très préservé par l'immunité d'exécution des Etats. Cette thèse a ainsi pour enjeu, et s'inscrit, dans le débat contemporain relatif à la transformation de l'Etat européen sous le poids de son endettement. / Sovereign debts’ financiarization is a global phenomenon affecting a very substantial number of States in Europe. Nevertheless, European State insolvency has not been implemented. This legal loophole didn't lead to legal uncertainty : a State default's European regime has emerged from practical experience in sovereign debt contracts. Those contracts include harmonised standards : States adopted boilerplates with the aim of contributing to effective debt market and providing liquidity. Promotion and circulation of boilerplates have been made easier by the fact that many States turn to lawyers for their financial affairs. In fact, sovereign consultancy market remains concentrated among a few major law firms. Given the spread of sovereign debt crisis, which also affected developed economies, contract « as statute » has become a major issue for all democracies. The first part intends to identify and map European boilerplates, reflecting regional particularities ; to analyse them and assess their effectiveness and efficiency in crisis conditions. The second analyses the case law that has developed over the years regarding sovereign debt contract. The European States' default contractual regime had led to the dismissal of prerogatives derogating from the generally applicable rules of law, which States used to enjoy within their financing operations. This research has both practical and prospective dimensions, aiming at putting forward proposals to deal with sovereign debt crisis.

The work deals with the theoretical basis and the practical approach for determining the risk-free rate of return. The aim of the work is to form recommendations which should analysts follow in determining the risk-free rate of return in the Czech Republic. The first part focuses on theoretical basis of risk-free rate of return and market interest rates. Further, the criteria of risk-free investments are defined in this chapter. The second and third part focuses on determination of the risk-free rate of return using yield to maturity of government bond and yield curve which was derived with using the Nelson-Siegel model. The table of forward rates at the end of each month from January 1999 to April 2010 is attached.