Les forages polaires profonds contiennent des enregistrements des conditions climatiques du passé et de l'air piégé qui témoignent des compositions atmosphériques du passé, notamment des gaz à effet de serre. Cette archive nous permet de décrypter le rôle des gaz à effet de serre dans les variations climatiques pendant huit cycles glaciaire-interglaciaires, soit l'équivalent de plus de 800 000 ans. Les carottes de glace, comme toute archive paléoclimatique, sont caractérisées par des incertitudes liées aux processus qui traduisent les variables climatiques en proxy, ainsi que par des incertitudes dues aux chronologies de la glace et des bulles d'air piégées. Nous développons un cadre méthodologique, basé sur la modélisation inverse dite Bayesienne et l'évaluation de fonctions complexes de densité de probabilité, pour traiter les incertitudes liées aux enregistrements paléoclimatiques des carottes de glace de manière précise. Nous proposons deux études dans ce cadre. Pour la première étude, nous identifions les probabilités de localisation des points de changement de pente de l'enregistrement du CO2 dans la carotte de WAIS Divide et d'un stack d'enregistrements de paléotempérature a partir de cinq carottes Antarctiques avec des fonctions linéaires par morceaux. Nous identifions aussi les probabilités pour chaque enregistrement individuel de température. Cela nous permet d'examiner les changements de pente à l'échelle millénaire dans chacune des séries, et de calculer les déphasages entre les changements cohérents. Nous trouvons que le déphasage entre la température en Antarctique et le CO2 à probablement varié (en restant inferieur, generalement, à 500 ans) lors de la déglaciation. L'âge des changements de temperature varie probablement entre les sites de carottage aussi. Ce résultat indique que les mécanismes qui reliaient la température en Antarctique et le CO2 lors de la déglaciation pouvaient être differents temporellement et spatialement. Dans la deuxième étude nous développons une méthode Bayesienne pour la synchronisation des carottes de glace dans le modèle inverse chronologique IceChrono. Nos simulations indiquent que cette méthode est capable de synchroniser des séries de CH4 avec précision, tout en prenant en compte des observations chronologiques externes et de l'information à priori sur les caractéristiques glaciologiques aux sites de forage. La méthode est continue et objective, apportant de la précision à la synchronisation des carottes de glace. / Deep polar ice cores contain records of both past climate and trapped air that reflects past atmospheric compositions, notably of greenhouse gases. This record allows us to investigate the role of greenhouse gases in climate variations over eight glacial-interglacial cycles. The ice core record, like all paleoclimate records, contains uncertainties associated both with the relationships between proxies and climate variables, and with the chronologies of the records contained in the ice and trapped air bubbles. In this thesis, we develop a framework, based on Bayesian inverse modeling and the evaluation of complex probability densities, to accurately treat uncertainty in the ice core paleoclimate record. Using this framework, we develop two studies, the first about Antarctic Temperature and CO2 during the last deglaciation, and the second developing a Bayesian synchronization method for ice cores. In the first study, we use inverse modeling to identify the probabilities of piecewise linear fits to CO2 and a stack of Antarctic Temperature records from five ice cores, along with the individual temperature records from each core, over the last deglacial warming, known as Termination 1. Using the nodes, or change points in the piecewise linear fits accepted during the stochastic sampling of the posterior probability density, we discuss the timings of millenial-scale changes in trend in the series, and calculate the phasings between coherent changes. We find that the phasing between Antarctic Temperature and CO2 likely varied, though the response times remain within a range of ~500 years from synchrony, both between events during the deglaciation and accross the individual ice core records. This result indicates both regional-scale complexity and modulations or variations in the mechanisms linking Antarctic temperature and CO2 accross the deglaciation. In the second study, we develop a Bayesian method to synchronize ice cores using corresponding time series in the IceChrono inverse chronological model. Tests show that this method is able to accurately synchronize CH4 series, and is capable of including external chronological observations and prior information about the glaciological characteristics at the coring site. The method is continuous and objective, bringing a new degree of accuracy and precision to the use of synchronization in ice core chronologies.

En réponse aux changements climatiques avérés et à une qualité de l'air qui se dégrade, la quantification des émissions de gaz à effet de serre et des polluants atmosphériques des régions urbanisées suscite un intérêt croissant. La meilleure description des émissions anthropiques actuellement disponible est proposée par les inventaires d'émission. Mais leurs estimations, fournies par secteur, reposent sur la combinaison de données d'activité et de facteurs d'émission déterminés sur bancs d'essai et qui ne représentent pas forcément bien les conditions réelles d'émission. Paris, en tant que 3e mégapole européenne, se place dans ce contexte et nous avons choisi d'utiliser des méthodes reposant sur l'acquisition de mesures in situ en région parisienne pour caractériser le signal urbain et vérifier les estimations de l'inventaire régional haute résolution d'Airparif. Les méthodes mises en place dans ce travail de thèse reposent sur l'utilisation conjointe de différents traceurs atmosphériques (CO, NOx, COV). En effet, ils sont co-émis au CO2 lors des processus de combustions incomplètes dans des proportions supposées caractéristiques du secteur d'émission. Les rapports de concentration entre les différentes espèces co-émises sont donc un outil de choix pour cette étude. Nous avons alors développé différentes méthodes d'évaluation de ces rapports pour caractériser les émissions pour l'une des sources prédominantes de CO2 à Paris (le trafic routier) ou dans le panache parisien. Les variabilités spatiale et saisonnière des rapports ont notamment pu être étudiées et les conclusions obtenues n'étaient pas forcément référencées dans les estimations des inventaires ou d'études antérieures. Nous avons comparé nos résultats aux estimations fournies par l'inventaire le plus récent d'Airparif qui apparait généralement surestimer ces rapports. Enfin, nous avons combiné les résultats de l'approche multi-espèces à ceux fournis par l'analyse des isotopes du carbone dans le CO2 (souvent utilisés comme référence pour l'étude des émissions anthropiques). D'après leur analyse, les émissions de CO2 à Paris sont majoritairement d'origine fossile (81 %) et l'utilisation des combustibles fossiles est répartie quasi équitablement. Finalement, l'accord satisfaisant trouvé entre les deux démarches (multi-espèces et isotopique) a permis d'affirmer leur pertinence pour l'étude des signaux urbains moyens. / In response to changing air quality and climate, there is a growing interest in quantifying emissions ofatmospheric pollutants and greenhouse gases from urban areas. Currently emission inventories provide the most detailed description of anthropogenic emissions. However, their estimates rely on the combination of activity proxies and emission factors for individual source sectors calibrated for benchmarck situations that may significantly differ from real conditions. Paris, the third largest megacity in Europe, can be considered in this context. We used methods based on in situ measurements in this region to characterise the urban signal and independently assess the latest estimates from the regional inventory. The methods we developed rely on the joint analysis of atmospheric tracers (CO, NOx, VOCs) which are co-emitted with CO2 during incomplete combustion processes in ratios that are characteristic of each emission sector. These ratios between co-emitted species are thus an appropriate tool to study the urban signal. During this PhD, we developed several methods to evaluate the ratios using measurements for a major CO2 emission source in Paris (road traffic) or for measurements acquired in the urban atmosphere. We revealed spatial and seasonal variabilities in these ratios and the main conclusions were not necessarily in complete accordance with the ones from inventories or previous studies. We also compared our results to the estimates provided by the latest regional inventory, which appears to overestimate them in most cases. Finally, we combined the results obtained with the multi-species analysis to the ones provided by isotopic analyses (which are often used as a reference to study anthropogenic emissions). According to the analyses of these measurements, CO2 emissions in Paris came mostly from combustion of fossil fuels (81 %) and the use of each fossil fuel is almost equally distributed. Finally, the satisfactory agreement found between the two approaches (multi-species and isotopic one) confirmed their relevancefor the analysis of mean urban signals.

A Nephelometry camera (NephCam) and Humidity Controlled Cavity Ring-Down Transmissometer (HC-CRDT) were developed for the determination of aerosol optical properties. The NephCams use a reciprocal geometry relative to an integrating nephelometer; a diode laser illuminates a scattering volume orthogonal to a charge coupled device (CCD). The use of a CCD allows for measurement of aerosol scattering in 2 dimensions; scattering coefficients and size information can be extracted. The NephCam's optics were characterized during a set of imaging experiments to optimize the images collected by the camera. An aperture setting of 1.6 was chosen because it allowed for the most light intensity to reach the CCD - albeit with significant vignetting - and also had a constant modular transfer function (MTF) across the image; approximately 0.3. While this MTF value is approaching the minimum usable MTF of 0.2, other aperture settings did not exhibit constant MTF. While the effects of vignetting can be corrected in image post processing, the effects of non-constant MTF cannot. An optical response model was constructed to simulate images collected by the NephCams as a function of particle type and size. Good agreement between modeled and measured images was observed after the effects of contrast on image shape were considered. The image shapes generated by the model also pointed towards the use of polynomial calibration for particle sizes less than 400 nm as a result of multiple charge-to-size effects present from the sizing mechanism of the differential mobility analyzer. Initial calibration of the NephCams using size-selected dry Ammonium sulfate (AS) showed that calibration slopes are a function of particle size which is also in agreement with the model. Calibration slopes decreased as particle size increased to 400 nm; after 400 nm calibration slope oscillated around a common value. This effect is directly related to the forward shift of scattered intensity as particles grow in size and the collection efficiency of the NephCam as particle size increases. The single scattering albedo (SSA) of Nigrosin was calculated using the NephCam; extinction was measured by the HC-CRDT. Good agreement between the SSA and size was noticed for larger particle sizes; particles smaller than 200 nm in diameter over-measured the SSA of Nigrosin because of the multiple charge-to-size effect. In this size regime, light scattering by particles increases much more quickly than absorption; the presence of larger particles causes scattering to be artificially high. The HC-CRDT is a 4 channel, 3 wavelength instrument capable of measuring the extinction coefficients of aerosols at high (> 80%), low (< 10%) and ambient relative humidity. Extinction coefficients as a function of RH were determined for AS, NaNO3, NaCl, and Nigrosin; these particles represent surrogates of the strongly scattering ionic salts and black carbon, respectively. A model was developed to calculate the changes in refractive index and extinction coefficients of these water soluble particles as a function of RH; these particle types were chosen because core-shell morphologies could be avoided. Volume mixing, Maxwell-Garnett and partial molar refraction mixing rules were used to calculate effective refractive indices as a function of water uptake. Particle growth was calculated based upon the Kelvin equation. Measured and modeled results of f(RH) - relative change in extinction between high or ambient RH and dry RH - agree well for all particle types except Nigrosin. This disagreement is thought to stem directly from an incomplete parameter set for Nigrosin; growth parameters were assumed to be identical to NaNO3, density assumed to be 1 g/mL and molecular weight 202 g/mole, which may not be true in reality (different suppliers of Nigrosin quote different molecular weights). The NephCam was not used during these experiments, so the addition of a scattering measurement to better characterize the growth by Nigrosin is necessary. The f(RH) data for NaNO3 showed excellent agreement between measured and modeled data; however particle size information collected by an SMPS does not agree with the theory. This stems from the fact that NaNO3 does not show prompt deliquescence upon drying; instead an amorphous solid forms which exhibits a kinetically limited loss of water.

Southeastern South America (SESA), a region encompassing Paraguay, Southern Brazil, Uruguay, and northern Argentina, experienced a 23% increase in austral summer precipitation from 1902-2022, one of the largest precipitation trends observed globally. There is little consensus on the drivers of the precipitation trend, but Atlantic multidecadal variability, stratospheric ozone depletion, and greenhouse gas emissions stand out as key contributing factors. The work presented in this dissertation addresses two main questions. First, what are the historical drivers of the SESA precipitation increase? To address this, I investigate simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) Phases 3, 5, and 6 and find that not only do fully-coupled climate models simulate positive SESA precipitation trends that are much weaker over the historical interval, but some models persistently simulate negative precipitation trends. The same is true of two atmospheric models forced with observed historical sea surface temperatures. While future 21st-century projections yield positive ensemble mean precipitation trends that grow with increasing greenhouse-gas emissions, the mean forced response never exceeds the observed historical trend. Finally, some pre-industrial control runs occasionally simulate centennial-scale trends that fall within the observational range, but most do not. The second question I address is why climate models struggle to simulate the observed SESA precipitation trend. In an attempt to understand the model bias, I investigate one driver of SESA precipitation variability: the South American low-level jet. By developing a jet index from low-level moisture fluxes into SESA, I find that increased moisture flux through the jet accounts for 20-45% of the observed SESA precipitation trend from 1951-2020 in two reanalysis datasets. While results vary among reanalyses, both point to increased humidity as a fundamental driver of increased moisture flux and precipitation. Increased humidity within the jet is consistent with warming sea surface temperatures driven by anthropogenic forcing, although additional natural climate variations also may have played a role. The jet’s velocity also increased, further enhancing precipitation, but without a clear connection to anthropogenic forcing. These findings indicate that the SESA precipitation trend is partly attributable to jet intensification arising from both natural variability and anthropogenic forcing. In my final research chapter, I explore whether CMIP6 models simulate a realistic relationship between SESA precipitation and the jet, as well as whether inaccuracies in the characterization of the jet could explain muted trends in simulated SESA precipitation. I find that the interannual variability in the simulated jet-precipitation relationship aligns well with results from observations from 1951-2014. Interannual precipitation variability across the models is primarily dominated by the jet’s velocity. The models simulate a forced increase in humidity within the jet, consistent with observations and theory, that contributes a positive trend to SESA precipitation. Given that the models generally simulate realistic jet-precipitation relationships, I conclude that model misrepresentation of the jet is not a likely explanation for the discrepancy between simulated and observed SESA precipitation trends. Despite remaining uncertainties, my work sheds new light on our understanding of SESA precipitation variability and trends. Future work is needed to better understand the large-scale drivers of SESA precipitation outside of the jet and why climate models largely underestimate or fail to reproduce the observed precipitation trend. While Atlantic multidecadal variability is often cited as an important contributor to the SESA precipitation trend, I find austral summer forcing from the Atlantic to be ambiguous with regard to SESA precipitation and requires further analysis. Additionally, I highlight the Pacific South American mode as another contributing factor that warrants further exploration.

No description available.

Ettsyfte med denna uppsats är jämförelsen mellan två behandlingsalternativ för matavfall, hemkompostering eller biogasproducering sett från klimatperspektivet. Koldioxidekvivalenter har beräknats för de två alternativen. Ett annat syfte har varit att studera den politiska processen för att förstå varför det först under 90-talet uppmuntras till att hushållen ska hemkompostera för att sen under början av 2000-talet förespråka rötning av matavfallet. Mina uträkningar och jämförelser visar att det är mer fördelaktigt för klimatet att röta matavfallet, koldioxidutsläppet blir mindre än vid hemkompostering. Mitt andra syfte visar att det kan finnas en klimatvinst genom att låta politiken fatta besluten men det kan även finnas en risk att det egentliga syftet med hemkompostering glöms bort och att hushållen måste betala för något som de egentligen inte behöver (matkärl) eller som inte kanske finns (tillsynen). / One purpose of this study is to compare two treatment options for food waste. Home composting or biofuel production, seen from the climate perspective. The carbon dioxide equivalent has been calculated for the two options. The second purpose was to study the political process with regard to food waste to understand why Swedish households were encouraged to home compost food waste during the nineties only to early twenties advocate biofuel production. My calculations and comparisons shows that it is more beneficial for the climate to digest the food waste then composting since the carbon dioxide emissions is less. My second analysis indicates that while the political reorientation has led to environmental improvements, the effect has also been that to gain control of the food waste stream, waste management organisations effectively provide customers with no choice and economically punish households that have no food waste to collect since they have effective home composting.

Throughout the past several years, a major push has been made for the automotive industry to provide vehicles with lower environmental impacts while maintaining safety, performance, and overall appeal. Various legislation has been put into place to establish guidelines for these improvements and serve as a challenge for automakers all over the world. In light of these changes, hybrid technologies have been growing immensely on the market today as customers are seeing the benefits with lower fuel consumption and higher efficiency vehicles. With the need for hybrids rising, it is vital for the engineers of this age to understand the importance of advanced vehicle technologies and learn how and why these vehicles can change the world as we know it. To help in the education process, this thesis seeks to define a powertrain model created and developed to help users understand the basics behind hybrid vehicles and the effects of these advanced technologies. One of the main goals of this research is to maintain a simplified approach to model development. There are very complex vehicle simulation models in the market today, however these can be hard to manipulate and even more difficult to understand. The 1 Hz model described within this work aims to allow energy to be simply and understandable traced through a hybrid powertrain. Through the use of a 'backwards' energy tracking method, demand for a drive cycle is found using a drive cycle and vehicle parameters. This demand is then used to determine what amount of energy would be required at each component within the powertrain all the way from the wheels to the fuel source, taking into account component losses and accessory loads on the vehicle. Various energy management strategies are developed and explained including controls for regenerative braking, Battery Electric Vehicles, and Thermostatic and Load-following Series Hybrid Electric Vehicles. These strategies can be easily compared and manipulated to understand the tradeoffs and limitations of each. After validating this model, several studies are completed. First, an example of using this model to design a hybrid powertrain is conducted. This study moves from defining system requirements to component selection, and then finding the best powertrain to accomplish the given constraints. Next, a parameter known as Power Split Fraction is studied to provide insight on how it affects overall powertrain efficiency. Since the goal with advanced vehicle powertrains is to increase overall system efficiency and reduce overall energy consumption, it is important to understand how all of the factors involved affect the system as a whole. After completing these studies, this thesis moves on to discussing future work which will continue refining this model and making it more applicable for design. Overall, this work seeks to provide an educational tool and aid in the development of the automotive engineers of tomorrow. / Master of Science

Cellulosic biomass-to-bioenergy systems can provide environmental and economic benefits to modern societies, reducing the dependence on fossil-fuels and greenhouse gas emissions while simultaneously improving rural economies. Corn (Zea mays L.) stover and wheat straw (Triticum aestivum L.) residues have particular promise given these crops are widely grown and their cellulosic fractions present a captured resource as a co-product of grain production. Annual systems also offer the ability to change crops rapidly in response to changing market demands. However, concerns exist about residue removal effects on soil health, greenhouse gases emissions and subsequent crop productivity. The carbon footprint and the crop yield productivity and soil health responses resulting from the removal of crop residues has been studied extensively over the last 20 years, but this research has been largely conducted in the Corn Belt. To investigate the impact of crop residue removal in the Mid-Atlantic USA, combinations of corn stover (0, 3.33, 6.66, 10 and 20 Mg ha-1) and wheat straw (0, 1.0, 2.0, and 3.0 Mgha-1) were soil applied in a corn-wheat/soybean (Glycine max L. Merr.) rotation in Virginia's Coastal Plain. Corn stover (0, 3.33, 6.66, 10 and 20 Mg ha-1) was applied in a continuous corn cropping system in the Ridge/Valley province. For each system, residues were applied following grain harvest over two production cycles. Each experiment was conducted as a randomized complete design with four replications. The highest rates of stover retention resulted in greater greenhouse gas emissions in year 1, but not year 2 of these studies and did not affect overall global warming potentials. Stover application also increased soil carbon but had little effect on other measures of soil quality. Stover K levels were greater with high rates of stover retention. Overall, these studies indicate little effect of residue removal or retention (above typical residue production rates) on subsequent crop production, greenhouse gas emissions, or soil health measures in the short term. This study is one of the first to assess residue removal in the Mid-Atlantic USA and is the first study to investigate the impacts that managing more than one crop residue in a multi-crop system. Longer-term research of this type may be warranted both to determine the consequences of residue management and to start building a regionally-specific body of knowledge about these practices. / Ph. D. / Over the last decade, strategic economic and environmental concerns have increased interest in the use of crop residues as sustainable, renewable sources for bioenergy and bio-products. Most of the work investigating the sustainability of residue removal has occurred in the US Corn Belt, where corn stover and wheat straw (the part of the plant that is not grain) supplies are abundant. Although the research data from the Corn Belt provide guarded optimism about residue harvest systems in the Midwest, it is not suitable to extrapolate these results to the South because of differences in soils, climate, and cropping systems. Cooler, humid conditions can sustain higher levels of soil organic matter, lessening but not eliminating concerns about stover removal. Current research from the Midwest region suggests routine stover harvest – within limits – can be sustainable. The development of new bioenergy and bioproduct industries in the Southeast region is leading to a growing expectation that regional cropping systems will supply the millions of tons of biomass needed for these new businesses. However, few data are available regarding sustainable crop residue harvest from the Southeast. Sustainable levels of residue removal may be quite low given regional soil and climatic conditions, and the effects of residue removal on soil health parameters and greenhouse gas emissions remain to be defined. The purpose of this project was to determine the amount of corn stover and wheat straw can sustainably be harvested from Virginia’s grain-based cropping systems without reducing plant productivity or soil quality or increasing GHG emissions. This research generated regionally relevant information on the impacts of crop residue removal to help determine whether harvesting wheat straw and corn stover can be a sustainable practice for the region’s cropping systems. In a first stage, short term impacts of residue removal on soil quality and greenhouse gases were measured in Blacksburg and New Kent, VA, over the period 2015-2017.

Defining key parameters for a charge sustaining supervisory (torque split) control strategy as well as an engine and catalyst warm-up strategy for a Split Parallel Architecture Extended-Range Electric Vehicle (SPA E-REV) is accomplished through empirically and experimentally measuring vehicle tailpipe emissions and energy consumption for two distinct control strategies. The results of the experimental testing and analysis define how the vehicle reduces fuel consumption, petroleum energy use and greenhouse gas emissions while maintaining low tailpipe emissions. For a SPA E-REV operating in charge sustaining mode with the engine providing net propulsive energy, simply operating the engine in regions of highest efficiency does not equate to the most efficient operation of the vehicle as a system and can have adverse effects on tailpipe emissions. Engine and catalyst warm-up during the transition from all-electric charge depleting to engine-dominant charge sustaining modes is experimentally analyzed to evaluate tailpipe emissions. The results presented are meant to define key parameters for a high-level torque-split strategy and to provide an understanding of the tradeoffs between low energy consumption and low tailpipe emissions. The literature review gives a background of hybrid and plug-in hybrid vehicle control publications including tailpipe emissions studies, but does not include experimental results and comparisons of supervisory strategies designed for low fuel consumption and low tailpipe emissions the SPA E-REV architecture. This paper details the high-level control strategy chosen for balancing low energy consumption and low tailpipe emissions while the engine is operating. Vehicle testing data from a chassis dynamometer is presented in support of the research. / Master of Science

La contaminación atmosférica originada por la producción animal intensiva afecta al medio ambiente global, a la salud de las personas y al bienestar de los animales de la propia granja. Se trata de una problemática de creciente interés en países en los que, como en el caso de España, se ha investigado poco hasta el momento. Esta tesis doctoral se centra en la medición experimental de concentraciones y emisiones de gases (amoniaco, metano, óxido nitroso y dióxido de carbono) y partículas (PM10) en granjas de pollos de cebo y de conejos, principalmente en clima mediterráneo, analizando los factores que afectan a dichas emisiones. Para ello, la tesis se compone de cinco trabajos de investigación diferenciados, aunque estrechamente relacionados entre sí. En primer lugar, se estudia en detalle la metodología empleada para medir las emisiones, basado en un balance en el que las variables son la concentración de gases y el flujo de ventilación; por otra parte, se desarrolla un procedimiento para el análisis de la incertidumbre cuyo objetivo es obtener indicadores de la calidad de los resultados. En segundo lugar, se aborda la medición del flujo de ventilación en granjas comerciales mediante el desarrollo de un circuito para la adquisición de información sobre el funcionamiento de los ventiladores. Posteriormente, y en aplicación de los dos anteriores estudios, se determinan las emisiones de gases en dos granjas comerciales de conejos y una de pollos en el litoral mediterráneo español, obteniendo resultados muy útiles para la mejora del inventario nacional de emisiones. Finalmente, se ha cuantificado la influencia de la actividad de los pollos de engorde en las emisiones de partículas y de gases, y se ha evaluado la aplicabilidad de un método para la determinación indirecta de la ventilación basado en el balance de dióxido de carbono. Los resultados obtenidos en estos experimentos y en los correspondientes análisis contribuyen al conocimiento general acerca de las emisiones / Calvet Sanz, S. (2008). Experimental studies on gas and dust emissions to the atmosphere in rabbit and broiler buildings [Tesis doctoral]. Universitat Politècnica de València. https://doi.org/10.4995/Thesis/10251/8304