Real-world problems especially the ones that involve natural systems are complex and they are composed of many non-deterministic components. Uncertainties associated with these non-deterministic components may originate from randomness or from imprecision due to lack of information. Until recently, uncertainty, regardless of its nature or source has been treated by probability concepts. However, uncertainties associated with real-world systems are not limited to randomness. Imprecise, vague or incomplete information may better be represented by other mathematical tools, such as fuzzy set theory, possibility theory, belief functions, etc. New approaches which allow utilization of probability theory in combination with these new mathematical tools found applications in various engineering fields. Uncertainty modeling in human health risk assessment and groundwater resources management areas are investigated in this thesis. In the first part of this thesis two new approaches which utilize both probability theory and fuzzy set theory concepts to treat parameter uncertainties in carcinogenic risk assessment are proposed. As a result of these approaches fuzzy health risks are generated. For the fuzzy risk to be useful for practical purposes its acceptability with respect to compliance guideline has to be evaluated. A new fuzzy measure, the risk tolerance measure, is proposed for this purpose. The risk tolerance measure is a weighed average of the possibility and the necessity measures which are currently used for decision making purposes. In the second part of this thesis two decision making frameworks are proposed to determine the best groundwater resources management strategy in the Savannah region, Georgia. Groundwater resources management problems, especially ones in the coastal areas are complex and require treatment of various uncertain inputs. The first decision making framework proposed in this study is composed of a coupled simulation-optimization model followed by a fuzzy multi-objective decision making approach while the second framework includes a groundwater flow model in which the parameters of the flow equation are characterized by fuzzy numbers and a decision making approach which utilizes the risk tolerance measure proposed in the first part of this thesis.

Texas water resources are under pressure due to population growth expected in the coming decades, increasing industrial demands, and frequent periods of drought. With this increasing demand for limited water resources it is important to explore alternative water sources within the State. One of those resources that can be developed is the many small aquifers which have never been well-characterized but could be an alternative source of fresh and brackish water for agriculture, municipal, and industrial applications. The natural gas industry’s demand for water is growing in Texas as new drilling techniques such a hydraulic fracturing have opened new reserves previously considered economically non-viable. The development of smaller aquifers containing brackish water is a viable alternative to the gas industry’s current reliance on fresh (potable) groundwater resources. The aquifer sections containing brackish water need to be mapped and characterized so they can be developed as an alternative water resource by the gas industry. The Barnett Shale in North-central Texas is one of the first major gas plays in the United States to use the technique of hydraulic fracturing in field development. This technique requires large quantities of water to create the required hydraulic pressure down the gas well to fracture the normally low permeability shale. A typical horizontal well completion consumes approximately 3.0 to 3.5 million gallons (11,400 to 13,200 m3) of fresh water. Projections of future groundwater demand for the Barnett Shale gas play total 417,000 AF (5.1x108 m3), an annual average of 22,000 AF (2.7x107 m3) over the expected 2007-2025 development phase. This level of water demand has the gas industry and groundwater managers exploring alternative sources of water for future development of the Barnett Shale. One alternative source of water for the expanding footprint of the Barnett Shale gas play are the smaller local Paleozoic aquifers on the western edge of the play. These small aquifers are underutilized and contain waters with higher levels of TDS. These levels are, however, acceptable to the drilling industry. In order to characterize theses aquifers, TWDB databases were utilized to analyze water chemistry and well productivity. / text

Disertacijos tyrimo objektu buvo Pietryčių Lietuvos kvartero komplekso daugiasluoksnės uolienų storymės požeminio vandens ištekliai (balansas, pasiskirstymas ir formavimas). Disertacinio darbo metu pagrįsti ir suformuluoti kvartero daugiasluoksnės uolienų storymės schematizavimo principai – patikslinta hidrogeodinaminės sistemos sandara remiantis litologiniais duomenimis ir vandeningų sluoksnių tarpusavio ryšio sąlygomis, naudojant hidrogeocheminius, izotopinius ir hidraulinius tyrimus. Išskirti vandeningieji ir pusiau laidūs sluoksniai bei sudarytas kvartero vandeningojo komplekso matematinis modelis. Atlikta ekspertinė modeliavimui naudotų hidrogeologinių parametrų analizė – jų patikimumas tikslintas kalibruojant modelį hidrogeologiniais, infiltracinės mitybos, požeminio nuotėkio balansiniais paskaičiavimais bei požeminio vandens cheminės sudėties ir izotopiniais tyrimais. Parinktame eksperimentiniame hidrogeologiniame pjūvyje – vandens filtracijos kelyje įvertinta požeminio vandens cheminės-izotopinės sudėties transformacija. Remiantis tričio tyrimo ir matematinio modelio duomenimis regioniniame pjūvyje atlikta filtracijos schemos bei filtracijos greičių korekcija. Pirmą kartą, naudojant matematinio modeliavimo metodus, įvertintos Pietryčių Lietuvos kvartero vandeningojo komplekso gamtinių ir eksploatacinių prognozinių gėlo požeminio vandens išteklių formavimosi sąlygos, nustatytas galimas požeminio vandens gavybos poveikis aplinkai. / The aim of the research was accomplish an assessment of the groundwater resources (budget, distribution and formation) and reveal their formation peculiarities in the Quaternary aquifer system of the southeaster part of Lithuania. Substantiation and formulation of schematization principles of the Quaternary multi-aquifer system for conceptualization of groundwater flow model based on the complex of lithologic, hydrogeochemistry, isotopic and hydraulic data have been developed by this dissertation. Performing data analysis of hydraulically tested aquifers, the hydrogeological parameters which have been used in simulation and their reliability have been adjusted during model calibration based on hydrogeological–hydrological water balance methods with coupled groundwater isotopic-chemistry investigations. Transformation of groundwater isotope-hydrogeochemical composition in the direction from the recharge area toward the discharge places have been estimated on a selected experimental hydrogeological cross–section. According to tritium and simulation modelling data, groundwater flow scheme and average velocity comparison have been made from the highland to lowland. The pre–development groundwater flow and prognostic assessment of groundwater exploitation resources of Quaternary aquifer system with extraction impact on the geoenvironment have been evaluated.

The aim of the research was accomplish an assessment of the groundwater resources (budget, distribution and formation) and reveal their formation peculiarities in the Quaternary aquifer system of the southeaster part of Lithuania. Substantiation and formulation of schematization principles of the Quaternary multi-aquifer system for conceptualization of groundwater flow model based on the complex of lithologic, hydrogeochemistry, isotopic and hydraulic data have been developed by this dissertation. Performing data analysis of hydraulically tested aquifers, the hydrogeological parameters which have been used in simulation and their reliability have been adjusted during model calibration based on hydrogeological–hydrological water balance methods with coupled groundwater isotopic-chemistry investigations. Transformation of groundwater isotope-hydrogeochemical composition in the direction from the recharge area toward the discharge places have been estimated on a selected experimental hydrogeological cross–section. According to tritium and simulation modelling data, groundwater flow scheme and average velocity comparison have been made from the highland to lowland. The pre–development groundwater flow and prognostic assessment of groundwater exploitation resources of Quaternary aquifer system with extraction impact on the geoenvironment have been evaluated. / Disertacijos tyrimo objektu buvo Pietryčių Lietuvos kvartero komplekso daugiasluoksnės uolienų storymės požeminio vandens ištekliai (balansas, pasiskirstymas ir formavimas). Disertacinio darbo metu pagrįsti ir suformuluoti kvartero daugiasluoksnės uolienų storymės schematizavimo principai – patikslinta hidrogeodinaminės sistemos sandara remiantis litologiniais duomenimis ir vandeningų sluoksnių tarpusavio ryšio sąlygomis, naudojant hidrogeocheminius, izotopinius ir hidraulinius tyrimus. Išskirti vandeningieji ir pusiau laidūs sluoksniai bei sudarytas kvartero vandeningojo komplekso matematinis modelis. Atlikta ekspertinė modeliavimui naudotų hidrogeologinių parametrų analizė – jų patikimumas tikslintas kalibruojant modelį hidrogeologiniais, infiltracinės mitybos, požeminio nuotėkio balansiniais paskaičiavimais bei požeminio vandens cheminės sudėties ir izotopiniais tyrimais. Parinktame eksperimentiniame hidrogeologiniame pjūvyje – vandens filtracijos kelyje įvertinta požeminio vandens cheminės-izotopinės sudėties transformacija. Remiantis tričio tyrimo ir matematinio modelio duomenimis regioniniame pjūvyje atlikta filtracijos schemos bei filtracijos greičių korekcija. Pirmą kartą, naudojant matematinio modeliavimo metodus, įvertintos Pietryčių Lietuvos kvartero vandeningojo komplekso gamtinių ir eksploatacinių prognozinių gėlo požeminio vandens išteklių formavimosi sąlygos, nustatytas galimas požeminio vandens gavybos poveikis aplinkai.

L’usage des eaux souterraines est à l’origine de l’expansion de l’économie agricole du Saïss, une région située au Nord du Maroc. Bien que cachées dans les sous-sols, les eaux souterraines de l’aquifère du même nom sont mises en visibilité par les objets techniques, intermédiaires indispensables à leur exploitation. D’une grande diversité, ces objets incluent les ouvrages d’exhaure (puits, forages, puits-forés) et leurs équipements (moteurs et pompes). D’un objet technique à l’autre, les transitions techniques qui traversent la région marquent le basculement des usages sur la nappe, des eaux souterraines superficielles aux eaux profondes. Au-delà des conditions hydrologiques et des pratiques de pompage qui changent, ce basculement témoigne du passage entre deux mondes sociaux spécifiques : un « monde de la pénurie » qui repose sur l’usage des puits et des eaux de la nappe phréatique ; et un « monde de l’abondance » où les forages permettent d’atteindre les ressources en eau de la nappe profonde, plus facilement exploitables, avec des débits plus importants et plus constants. L’évolution entre les deux mondes n’est pas linéaire, apparentée à une forme d’hybridité plutôt qu’à une rupture car leurs frontières sont rendues à la fois mouvantes et poreuses par les agriculteurs et des artisans innovants. En se constituant en objets de réseaux qui mettent en contact et créent des interdépendances entre les acteurs, les objets techniques dessinent un tissu réticulaire dont la maille ne relève pas de façon immédiate d’un lien territorial. La thèse explore ce que construit socialement la dynamique d’exploitation des ressources en eau souterraine, en caractérisant le type d’assemblages du social qui est généré - tout en y contribuant- par l’usage d’une ressource individualisée. L’analyse des mécanismes de récupération et la transformation des moteurs d’extraction révèle une société en émergence dont les systèmes d’échanges et de communication sont basés sur l’institution sociale du « bazar ». Structure sociale et culturelle traditionnelle dans les sociétés marocaines et orientales en général, le « bazar » offre des propriétés qui sont réinvesties de nos jours pour façonner les interrelations autour d’objets techniques nouveaux. En périphérie de ces processus, les acteurs publics contribuent à la réification des mondes sociaux, en disqualifiant le monde des puits pour encourager le monde « plus rationnel et mieux maîtrisé » des forages. L’approche de cette société des eaux cachées par l’intermédiaire de la technique et du rapport à l’eau souterraine se révèle d’une grande richesse, et capable de rendre visibles et explicites des dynamiques sociopolitiques caractéristiques du Maghreb contemporain. On voit alors se dessiner dans la relation ressources naturelles-objets techniques-acteurs des lignes de fracture sociologique entre monde de la ruralité souvent perçu par les acteurs publics comme « en retard » sur le développement et monde de la modernité qui encourage la course aux nouvelles technologies et à la technicité. / Groundwater-based irrigation enabled the development of a dynamic agricultural economy in the Saïss plain, located in the north of Morocco. Hidden in the aquifer system, the groundwater resources are made visible by technical objects used for their extraction. These techniques are multiple, including dug wells, tube-wells, and their equipment: motors and pumps. The shift from one technique to the other brought about major agrarian transitions in the region accompanied by a change of groundwater uses by switching from the shallow phreatic aquifer to the deep Liassic aquifer. Beyond changes over the hydrological context and practices of pumping, the change in the uses of the aquifer also shows the shift between two specific social worlds around groundwater exploitation. A “world of scarcity” based on the use of dug wells and the shallow aquifer; and a “world of abundance” where tube-wells can easily pump in the deep Liassic aquifer with its large and more regular flow rate. From one social world to another, the shift is neither a one-way process nor a rupture. On the contrary, their frontiers and limits remain flexible and porous due to the movements of farmers and artisans. By becoming objects within networks that create links and interdependences between actors, techniques are constitutive of a socio-technical network regardless of any direct territorial link with the aquifer. The thesis explores what is socially constructed through the dynamics of groundwater exploitation, by characterizing types of social assemblages generated by the uses of an individualized resource. The analysis of mechanisms around the recycling and transformation of extractive motors reveals an emerging society where relationships between actors of the market are based on a “bazaar economy”. Used to describe and analyse the social, economic and cultural structure in traditional Moroccan societies and oriental societies in general, the properties of the bazaar economy have been reorganised nowadays to organize interrelations between new technical objects. In this system, public actors contribute to the differentiation between the two social worlds around groundwater exploitation, trying to marginalize the social world of wells and supporting the “more rational and tamed” social world of tube wells. Understanding the society of hidden waters by the mediation of techniques and through the relationships of actors to groundwater makes visible the socio-political dynamics in contemporary North Africa. The relation between natural resources-techniques-actors also reveal sociological frontiers between the world of rurality considered by public actors as being “behind” in the economic development of the Nation; and the world of modernity or new technologies which is ahead in this development.

Les eaux souterraines représentent environ 98% des eaux douces potentiellement disponibles pour l'homme sur notre planète, en faisant donc une ressource fondamentale de nos sociétés. Du fait du changement climatique et du fort lien existant entre le climat et le cycle de l'eau, une préoccupation légitime est née concernant l'impact potentiel de ce changement climatique sur les ressources en eau. À ce jour, des évidences de plus en plus nombreuses appuient le fait que les modifications des conditions climatiques se répercutent sur le cycle hydrologique. L'identification de la sensibilité des eaux souterraines aux variations climatiques est donc devenue indispensable. Or, le climat est un système hautement complexe dont les variations, contrôlées par de nombreux facteurs à la fois naturels et anthropiques s'effectuent sur toutes les échelles de temps. Les modifications climatiques ne sont donc pas un phénomène nouveau, les eaux souterraines ont par conséquent subi dans le passé les effets de ces variations climatiques, elles en subissent actuellement les changements et subiront celles à venir. Les travaux développés dans cette thèse ont abordé cette problématique visant à caractériser la sensibilité de la ressource en souterraine face aux variations climatiques. À l'aide de l'analyse de traceurs environnementaux à l'échelle régionale, les impacts d'évènements climatiques majeurs intervenus sur les derniers millions d'années (transgression marine et période glaciaire) sont mis en évidence au sein du système hydrogéologique actuel. Puis, à l'aide de modélisation hydrogéologique, l'impact du changement climatique est étudié à travers les relations particulières existantes entre l'eau souterraine et les compartiments de surface et l'océan. Toutes ces études mettent en avant la sensibilité de la ressource en eau souterraine aux variations climatiques en termes de qualité (salinisation) et de quantité (baisse des niveaux d'eau). Les ressources hydrogéologiques sont particulièrement sensibles aux variations climatiques et hydrologiques (modifications de recharge, intrusions eau de mer…) ainsi qu'aux facteurs non climatiques (activités humaines). La gestion de cette ressource nécessite donc de considérer à la fois les risques climatiques et non climatiques ainsi que de prendre en compte l'adaptation à long terme de ces systèmes. / Groundwater resources represent approximately 98% of global freshwater resources available for humans on our planet; therefore groundwater is fundamental resource of our societies. Due to climate change and strong link between climate and the cycle of water, an understandable concern is appeared about the potential impacts of climate change on water resources. Nowadays, growing body of evidence supports the fact that changes in climatic conditions (temperature, precipitation, evaporation…) impact the hydrologic cycle and consequently groundwater resources. The identification of groundwater sensibility to climate variations has become essential. The climate is a highly complex system where its variations drive by many factors both natural and human occurs on all time scales. Climatic changes are not a new phenomenon, groundwater resources have already been impacted by effects of climatic variations, are impacting presently and will be in the future. The work carried out under this thesis covered this problematic to characterize the groundwater resources sensibility to climate variations. With the help of environmental tracers analyzed at the regional scale, impacts of major climate events occurred since the last millions years (marine transgression and glacial period) have been identified in the current hydrogeologic system. Then, support by hydrogeological modeling the impact of climate change has been studied through the specific relationships between groundwater and surface water bodies and ocean. All these studies highlight the important sensibility of groundwater resources to climate variations in terms of quality (salinization) and quantity (lower water levels). Hydrogeological resources are particularly sensitive to climate and hydrological variations (recharge changes, seawater intrusion…), as well as to non-climatic factors (human activities). Thus groundwater resources management needs to consider both climatic and non-climatic risks and the long-term adaptation of these systems.

Le bassin endoréique du lac Tchad (BLT) couvre 2,5 millions de km2 au centre de la zone sahélienne. Le lac Tchad agit comme un amplificateur des variations climatiques sur le BLT tandis que le système aquifère multicouche contient d'importantes ressources en eau. La réponse hydro(géo)logique du BLT aux variations du climat est étudiée par un couplage entre traceurs géochimiques et modélisation. Un bilan hydrologique, chimique et isotopique permet de distinguer les flux d'évaporation, de transpiration et d'infiltration à la surface du lac. La transpiration, jusqu'alors négligée, contribue à environ 15% de l'ET. La dynamique du chlore dans le BLT suggère un temps de transfert dans le bassin amont autour de 10 ans, un renouvellement rapide des eaux du lac et une infiltration de 200 mm an-1. Le couplage d'un modèle pluie-débit (GR2M) et du modèle de lac, forcé par des simulations paléoclimatiques de GCM sur le dernier millénaire, montre la difficulté de la comparaison modèle-données dans les reconstitutions paléohydrologiques. La cartographie de la recharge moderne de l'aquifère quaternaire est obtenue par l'interprétation des teneurs en 36Cl thermonucléaire dans les eaux. Une recharge récente, proche des eaux de surface, est mise en évidence dans 60% de l'aquifère quaternaire et la reprise évaporatoire actuelle en bord du lac Tchad est évaluée entre 85 et 98%. Les eaux géochimiquement contrastées des dépressions piézométriques ne signent pas de recharge actuelle. La composition géochimique propre aux eaux du CT suggère un temps de résidence supérieur à 300 000 ans. Ces données originales pourraient servir à mieux contraindre la paléorecharge en zone sahélienne. / Lake Chad Basin (LCB) is a 2.5 billion km2 closed drainage basin, in the center of Africa. Lake Chad enhances the climatic variations over the LCB while the multi-layers aquifer system contains large water resources. The hydro(geo)logical response of the LCB to climatic variability is studied by combining geochemical and modeling approaches. The lake Chad levels modeling, calibrated from hydrological, chemical and isotopic data, allows to disentangle evaporation from transpiration and from infiltration. Transpiration, neglected in previous studies, accounts for 15% of the total ET. From the chlorine dynamic in the LCB, a transit time of 10 yr in the upper basin, a short renewal rate of lake waters and their infiltration toward the aquifer are estimated. GCM paleoclimatic simulations over the last millennium were introduced into a rainfall-runoff model (GR2M) and the lake level model. It shows the difficulty to reconcile lake level records from paleohydrological modeling. The detection of thermonuclear 36Cl together with stable isotopic composition of groundwaters allow to draw the present-day recharge distribution in the Quaternary aquifer. Present-day recharge occurs close to surface waters in 60% of the groundwater sampled and an evaporation between 85 and 98% of waters in the surrounding of Lake Chad is estimated. Groundwaters with a contrasted geochemical signature are stored in the center of the piezometric depressions, suggesting no present-day recharge. The deep waters of the CT, with water ages of 300 000 yr, show geochemical patterns indicative of an old and humid recharge period. These original data give new insights into paleorecharge in the Sahelian band.

From the Proceedings of the 1972 Meetings of the Arizona Section - American Water Resources Assn. and the Hydrology Section - Arizona Academy of Science - May 5-6, 1972, Prescott, Arizona / The concept of collective utility is applied to a case study of alternative water resource utilization by providing a basis for comparing alternative uses of resources from the viewpoint of aggregate welfare. The exchange of sewage effluent for groundwater used by irrigation farmers, and the exchange of sewage effluent for groundwater used by processing and milling miners in Tucson, Arizona, are given as examples. Reviewed are collective utility concepts, case problems, definitions of problems, formulation of the model, and marginal change of collective utility. The first case has a collective utility of $800,500-g, where g represents unquantifiable factors, such as the reduction in quality of living due to the odor if solid waste exchanges. The second case has a collective utility of $175,000. Since it is likely that g will be on the order of $1 million per year, the first exchange is preferable to the second.

From the Proceedings of the 1975 Meetings of the Arizona Section - American Water Resources Assn. and the Hydrology Section - Arizona Academy of Science - April 11-12, 1975, Tempe, Arizona / Pinal County is one of Arizona's largest farm and highest farm income areas. Agriculture there is completely dependent upon irrigation systems, with nearly all of the water supply pumped from underlying groundwater reservoirs. Delivery of central Arizona project water will not assure groundwater conservation at a one to one trade-off ratio. Most of the monetary benefits to agriculture derived from the project will be realized by Indian farmers. Cotton acreage will not be affected, but the acreage of small grains and alfalfa will increase. The increasing salinity of cap water should be of no concern to Pinal County farmers.

Made available in DSpace on 2014-06-11T19:32:18Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 0 Previous issue date: 2009-10-20Bitstream added on 2014-06-13T21:03:55Z : No. of bitstreams: 1 santos_mm_dr_rcla.pdf: 4660699 bytes, checksum: 1e1fd8359d9badea1885e0b19149653d (MD5) / Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES) / A gestão dos recursos hídricos, com vistas a garantir o suprimento de água em quantidade e qualidade suficientes para atender às necessidades da sociedade, da mesma forma que as questões ambientais em geral, deve ser sempre conduzida sob um enfoque sistêmico, considerando uma grande diversidade de parâmetros. Nesse sentido, com vistas à avaliação do uso atual e potencial das águas subterrâneas do Sistema Aquífero Guarani (SAG) no Estado de São Paulo, buscou-se levantar uma larga gama de informações sobre sua utilização e ocorrência. Assim, foram utilizados dados coletados em 1.389 poços que explotam o SAG, para os mais diversos tipos de usos, bem como informações constantes de relatórios oficiais sobre o sistema de abastecimento público nos municípios distribuídos no Estado de São Paulo. Para armazenagem, manipulação, visualização e análise de dados espaciais, utilizou-se o sistema de informações geográficas (SIG). Cerca de 65% dos poços cadastrados são utilizados para o consumo humano (público e doméstico). Em termos volumétricos, o consumo público representa 67% do total extraído, seguido pelos usos industrial, doméstico, rural e recreacional, com 21,7%, 6,1%, 2,8% e 0,6%, respectivamente. Em 2007, havia um total de 5.058.041 habitantes consumidores efetivos do SAG, que explotavam um volume anual estimado de aproximadamente 563 milhões de m3. Para a análise potencial do uso do SAG, foram simulados dois cenários. No primeiro, as projeções indicam que em 2020 os consumidores do sistema aquífero serão cerca de 5.830.011 habitantes, e sua explotação se dará a um volume aproximado de 6,4 x 108 m3/ano, ou 45% acima da reserva subterrânea ativa. No segundo cenário, simulado para as zonas ZA (zona de afloramentos) e ZC (zona de confinamento próxima à área aflorante), as projeções indicam uma população de 2.506.905 habitantes... / The management of groundwater resources needs a systemic analysis of variables to succeed. In this way, the evaluation of the current and potential usages of waters from Guarani Aquifer System (SAG) in São Paulo State, was based on a large amount of data from drilling wells and official reports.. The analysis was accomplished using information collected from a survey of 1.389 wells including the different types of water usages and from municipal records of groundwater production. The geographic information system (GIS) was used for storage, manipulation, visualization and analysis of georeferenced data. About 65% of water wells is presently used for human consumption (public and domestic usages); Volumetrically, public consumption peaks to 67%, remaining 21.7%, 6.1%, 2.8% and 0.6% for industrial, domestic, rural and recreational usages, respectively. About 5058041 inhabitants directly makes use of water produced from GAS with a consumption of approximately 563 million m3 of water/year. For the analysis of the potential use of waters from GAS two scenarios were simulated. In one, the projections indicate that by 2020 consumers of the aquifer will be 5830011, and the aquifer system will be exploited to a volume of about 6.4 x 108 m3/year, or 45% above its groundwater active reserve. The other scenario was simulated for the zones ZA (outcrop zone) and ZC (confinement zone close to ZA): the results indicate a population of 2506905 that will consume a volume of 4.1 x 108 m3 by 2020 or nearly 95% of all estimated active reserve of the aquifer.