Despite the voluminous literature on North-South macroeconomic interactions and the key role of terms of trade variations in growth transmission from one region to another, a significant research gap persists for two reasons. First, there has been very little empirical work on testing of the relationships between growth patterns and terms of trade movements. Second, the empirical studies dedicated to testing the Prebisch-Singer Thesis (PST) focused on testing the long-run tendency for the terms of trade of primary commodities to deteriorate and neglected the joint nature of the predictions arising out of a complete formulation of PST. This dissertation seeks to properly specify the PST, provide a generalization of it to the case of imbalanced trade, and extend it to a three-region framework through a structuralist North-South model. Multiple paths of growth divergence/convergence and terms of trade deterioration/improvement emerge depending on the structural changes influencing the income-elasticity differentials. I carry out two sets of empirical analyses. First, I use aggregate data on North-South terms of trade indices to test the presence and significance of a downward trend. Second, I use panel data analysis and rolling regressions to show the evolution of income-elasticity differentials. The results suggest that the growth rates of developing countries during the 1980s declined in both absolute and relative terms partly as a result of the downward trend in terms of trade and partly as a result of income elasticity differentials reflecting the productive and technological asymmetries between the developed and developing economies. However, these structural asymmetries have not remained constant: the results show that they changed both over time and over cross-sections of different groups of countries. In general the countries that diversified towards manufactured exports had better chances of eliminating the elasticity differentials, and thus attaining relatively higher rates of growth. The cross-country study is complemented by a comparative case study of Turkey and Malaysia. The results show that industrial and trade policies, if carefully designed and effectively implemented, can counter potential costs of external market dynamics while taking advantage of the opportunities for advancing dynamic comparative advantages.

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La modélisation de la croissance des plantes a vu le jour à la fin du XXème siècle, à l’intersection de trois disciplines : l’agronomie, la botanique et l’informatique. Après un premier élan qui a donné naissance à un grand nombre de modèles, un deuxième courant a vu le jour au cours de la dernière décennie pour donner à ces modèles un formalisme mathématique et statistique rigoureux. Les travaux développés dans cette thèse s’inscrivent dans cette démarche et proposent deux axes de développement, l’un autour de l’évaluation et de la comparaison de modèles, et l’autre autour de l’étude de la variabilité inter-plantes.Dans un premier temps, nous nous sommes intéressés à la capacité prédictive des modèles de croissance de plantes, en appliquant une méthodologie permettant de construire et d’évaluer des modèles qui seront utilisés comme outils prédictifs. Une première étape d’analyse de sensibilité permet d’identifier les paramètres les plus influents afin d’élaborer une version plus robuste de chaque modèle, puis les capacités prédictives des modèles sont comparées à l’aide de critères appropriés. Cette étude a été appliquée au cas de la betterave sucrière mais peut se généraliser à d’autres plantes.La deuxième partie de la thèse concerne la prise en compte de la variabilité inter-individuelle dans les populations de plantes. Il existe en effet une forte variabilité entre plantes, d’origine génétique ou environnementale, dont il est nécessaire de tenir compte. Nous proposons dans cette thèse une approche basée sur l’utilisation de modèles (non linéaires) à effets mixtes pour caractériser la variabilité inter- individuelle. L’estimation paramétrique par maximum de vraisemblance nécessite l’utilisation de versions stochastiques de l’algorithme d’Espérance Maximisation basées sur des simulations de type Monte Carlo par Chaîne de Markov. Après une première application au cas de l’organogenèse chez la betterave sucrière, nous proposons une extension du modèle structure-fonction Greenlab à l’échelle de la population, appliqué aux cas de la betterave sucrière et du colza. / The modelling of plant growth and development was born at the end of the XXth century at the intersection of three disciplines: agronomy, botany and computer science. After a first period corresponding to the emergence of a lot of different models, a new trend has been initiated in the last decade to give these models a rigorous mathematical and statistical formalism. This thesis focuses on two main areas of development: (i) models evaluation and comparison, and (ii) inter-individual variability in plant populations.In the first part of the thesis, we study the predictive capacity of plant growth models, and we apply a two-step methodology to build and evaluate different models in a predictive perspective. In a first step, a sensitivity analysis is conducted to identify the most influential parameters and elaborate a more robust version of each model, and in a second step the predictive capacities of the models are compared using appropriate criteria. This study is carried out on sugar beet crops but can be easily generalized to other species.The second part of this thesis concerns the inter-individual variability in plant populations, which can be very high due to genetics or environmental varying conditions. This variability is rarely accounted for despite the major impact it can have at the agrosystem level. We proposed to take it into account using (nonlinear) mixed models, for which parameter estimation using maximum likelihood method relies on the use of stochastic variants of the Expectation-Maximization algorithm, based on Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulation techniques. We first apply this approach to the case of organogenesis in sugar beet populations, and secondly, we develop an extension of the functional-structural plant growth model Greenlab, from the individual to the population scale.

O Ipê Felpudo (Zehyera tuberculosa (Vell) Bur) é uma espécie nativa, pioneira que possui um alto potencial silvicultural. Essa está ameaçada de extinção devido ao caráter extrativista e predatório da exploração florestal brasileira. A eliminação de complexos ecossistemas florestais por atividades agrícolas, agropecuárias, madeireiras e industriais tem levado a drásticas reduções da base genética dessa essência. O espaçamento é de grande importância para o desenvolvimento das árvores sob aspectos tecnológicos, silviculturais e econômicos. Esse influencia na morfologia e crescimento das árvores. O espaçamento ótimo é aquele que concorrerá para o maior volume do produto e a qualidade almejada. A modelagem florestal inicia-se no inventário de parcelas permanentes que sofrem remedições, pois as florestas são um sistema biológico que está sempre em mudanças e, necessita-se da projeção destas mudanças para que se possa tomar decisões necessárias a fim de ser executado um manejo adequado nesse ecossistema. As decisões de manejo são baseadas em informações sobre as situações atuais e futuras dos povoamentos.Os objetivos desse trabalho são: analisar um experimento com 6 diferentes espaçamentos; definir um modelo de crescimento para a espécie, em função de variáveis do povoamento e climáticas coletadas na Estação Experimental de Linhares, Espírito Santo. / The Ipê Felpudo (Zeyhera tuberculosa (Vell) Bur) is a native and pioneer species, which possesses a high silvicultural potencial. It has been threatened of extinguishing due the intense predatory exraction of the Brazilian forestry exploitation. The elimination of the complex forestry ecosystem for agricultural, farming, lumber and industrial activities has induced to the drastic redutions of it’s genetic base. Plantation density is one of the most important factor or is the most important factor has a great importance for the development of the trees under technological, sivicultural and economic aspects. It influences in the morphological and trees growth. The excellent plantation density is the one that will concur for the biggest volume of the product and it’s quality. Forest modeling initiates through the inventory of permanent plots that suffer remeasures, therefore, forests are biological systems that are always changing and requires a projection of theese changes, in order to permit executinge management adjustments in this ecosystem. This decisions are based on information of the current and future situations of the stand. The purposes of this work are: to analyze an experiment with 6 different plantation densities; to define a growth model for this species, with stand and climatic variables, collected in the Experimental Station of Linhares, Espírito Santo.

Os controladores eletrônicos de pulverização visam minimizar a variação das taxas de insumos aplicadas no campo. Eles fazem parte de um sistema de controle, e permitem a compensação da variação de velocidade de deslocamento do pulverizador durante a operação. Há vários tipos de controladores eletrônicos de pulverização disponíveis no mercado e uma das formas de selecionar qual o mais eficiente nas mesmas condições, ou seja, em um mesmo sistema de controle, é quantificar o tempo de resposta do sistema para cada controlador específico. O objetivo desse trabalho foi estimar os tempos de resposta para mudanças de velocidade de um sistema eletrônico de pulverização via modelos de regressão não lineares, estes, resultantes da soma de regressões lineares ponderadas por funções distribuição acumulada. Os dados foram obtidos no Laboratório de Tecnologia de Aplicação, localizado no Departamento de Engenharia de Biossistemas da Escola Superior de Agricultura \"Luiz de Queiroz\", Universidade de São Paulo, no município de Piracicaba, São Paulo, Brasil. Os modelos utilizados foram o logístico e de Gompertz, que resultam de uma soma ponderada de duas regressões lineares constantes com peso dado pela função distribuição acumulada logística e Gumbell, respectivamente. Reparametrizações foram propostas para inclusão do tempo de resposta do sistema de controle nos modelos, com o objetivo de melhorar a interpretação e inferência estatística dos mesmos. Foi proposto também um modelo de regressão não linear difásico que resulta da soma ponderada de regressões lineares constantes com peso dado pela função distribuição acumulada Cauchy seno hiperbólico exponencial. Um estudo de simulação foi feito, utilizando a metodologia de Monte Carlo, para avaliar as estimativas de máxima verossimilhança dos parâmetros do modelo. / The electronic controllers spray aimed at minimizing the variation of inputs rates applied in the field. They are part of a control system, and allow for compensation for variation spray travel speed during operation. There are several types of electronic spray controllers on the market and one way to select which more efficient under the same conditions, ie in the same system of control, is to quantify the system response time for each specific driver. The objective of this study was to estimate the response times for changes in speed of an electronic spraying system via nonlinear regression models, these resulting from the sum of weighted linear regressions for cumulative distribution functions. Data were obtained on the Application Technology Laboratory, located in the Department of Biosystems Engineering from College of Agriculture \"Luiz de Queiroz\", University of Sao Paulo, in Piracicaba, Sao Paulo, Brazil. The models used were the logistic and Gompertz, resulting from a weighted sum of two constant linear regressions with weight given by the cumulative distribution function logistics and Gumbell respectively. Reparametrization been proposed for inclusion in the control system response time models, in order to improve the statistical interpretation and inference of the same. It has also been proposed a non-linear regression model two-phase which is the weighted sum of constant linear regressions weight given by a cumulative distribution function exponential hyperbolic sine Cauchy in which a simulation study was conducted using the methodology of Monte Carlo to evaluating the maximum likelihood estimates of the model parameters.

The central research question is the extent to which gifted programming affects student academic outcomes of gifted as compared to not-gifted students and how this differs by race/ethnicity and/or poverty status. Since the identification of elementary school students as gifted is not random, propensity score matching is used to remove this bias in the estimates of the effects. A matched sample of North Carolina middle school students based on individual level data of both gifted and not-gifted students of varied racial/ethnic groups and income levels is used for this analysis. This enables a comparison of sixth, seventh, and eighth grade student achievement to determine the extent to which participating in gifted programming differentiates effects by race/ethnicity and poverty status. I show the additional test score gain, if any, from being in gifted programming compared to students not participating in gifted programs. Variations in gifted program effects across race/ethnicity and income are assessed. This research adds empirical evidence to the more qualitatively focused gifted debate by analyzing differences in student outcomes between gifted and not-gifted students in North Carolina. Since black and lower income students are less likely to participate in gifted programs, they disproportionately encounter less experienced teachers, lower expectations, and fewer resources. The extent to which these additional learning supports translate to differences in student outcomes are analyzed.

This study examined the growth patterns of action teams over time. Cognitive and non-cognitive (i.e., motivational) team composition variables were hypothesized to differentially predict initial levels of and changes over time in team performance. In order to test the hypotheses 78 two-person teams flew three equivalent missions on a low-fidelity computer-based Apache helicopter simulator. Random Coefficient Modeling analyses indicated that, as expected, team composition of general cognitive ability positively predicted initial team performance, whereas team composition of motivational traits did not. However, none of the team composition variables predicted team performance change. Implications, limitations and directions for future research are discussed.

The central research question is the extent to which gifted programming effects student academic outcomes of gifted as compared to not-gifted students and how this differs by race/ethnicity and/or poverty status. Since the identification of elementary school students as gifted is not random, propensity score matching is used to remove this bias in the estimates of the effects. A matched sample of North Carolina middle school students based on individual level data of both gifted and not-gifted students of varied racial/ethnic groups and income levels is used for this analysis. This enables a comparison of sixth, seventh, and eighth grade student achievement to determine the extent to which participating in gifted programming differentiates effects by race/ethnicity and poverty status. I show the additional test score gain, if any, from being in gifted programming compared to students not participating in gifted programs. Variations in gifted program effects across race/ethnicity and income are assessed. This research adds empirical evidence to the more qualitatively focused gifted debate by analyzing differences in student outcomes between gifted and not-gifted students in North Carolina. Since black and lower income students are less likely to participate in gifted programs, they disproportionately encounter less experienced teachers, lower expectations, and fewer resources. The extent to which these additional learning supports translate to differences in student outcomes are analyzed.

Veterinarians often perform controlled experiments in which they inoculate animals with infectious diseases. They then monitor the transmission process in infected animals. The aim of such experiments can be to assess vaccine effects. The fitting of individual-level models (ILMs) to the infectious disease data, typically achieved by means of Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods, can be computationally burdensome. Here, we want to see if a vaccination effect can be identified using simpler regression-type models rather than the complex infectious disease models. We examine the use of various logistic growth curve models, via a series of simulated experiments in which the underlying true model is a mechanistic model of infectious disease spread. We want to investigate whether a vaccination effect can be identified when only partial epidemic curves are observed, and to assess the performance of these models when experiments are run with various sets of observational times.

This thesis is about the demography of the tunicate Styela clava, a species of some notoriety because of its invasiveness and impacts in many parts of the world. Species assemblages have continuously changed throughout evolutionary history, but the rate of today’s anthropogenically facilitated dispersal is unparalleled in history. Non-indigenous species (NIS) are now considered one of the most important risks to native biodiversity. NIS become invasive by becoming both widespread and locally dominant. This requires that a species becomes established, spreads locally, and increases in abundance. In the early stages of invasion, its demography and life history characteristics are of crucial importance. In New Zealand, Styela has established populations in several places, but none of these populations has yet reached the high densities found in other countries. In Lyttelton Port, where this study was located, Styela was first noticed in 2005. It therefore presented an ideal situation to study an invasive species in its early stages of establishment and provided a potentially good model for understanding how invasive species get local traction and spread from initial infestation points. Therefore, I set out to determine demographic features of Styela to understand the numbers game of population dynamics. This study used empirical data on growth rates, size-frequencies through time, and size and age to maturity to test several models, including von Bertalanffy, Logistic dose-response, Ricker and power models of individual growth. The most useful proved to be the von Bertalanffy model. Styela individuals shrink frequently, so average growth rates were often quite low, even though some individuals reached 160 mm or more in total length. Mortality was greatest in summer, presumably after reproduction, and lowest in winter. Fewer than 5% of individuals survived 12 months, and most or all of these died soon afterwards. Populations were, therefore, essentially annual. Recruitment was difficult to determine because of the cryptic nature of small juveniles. However, size-frequency, abundance and mortality data indicated that recruitment most likely occurred in early spring (late-October), and then again in late summer, with growth to maturity (at c. 50 mm total length) within < 5 months. Several manipulative experiments showed that Styela did not readily capitalise on provision of free space but the other non-native ascidian, Ciona intestinalis, rapidly recruited. Transplants of Styela were greatly affected by C. intestinalis, which overgrew them, similar to a localised replacement of Styela by Ciona seen overseas. Lefkovitch modelling was used to test whether Styela had an “Achilles heel” in its life history, whereby managed removal could impact future populations. This showed that under several scenarios intervention would most likely be ineffectual. Overall, this study showed that the original populations in Lyttelton Port are either static or in decline, somewhat contrary to original expectations. Nevertheless, it appears that these small populations may be acting as stepping stones for spread of this species outside of the port.