Mass gatherings stress local and global health care systems as they bring together individuals from all over the world that have very different health conditions. We firstly provide an overview of the concepts and results of mathematical epidemiology and public health. Secondly, we present an introduction to the mathematical modelling of measles using deterministic and stochastic approaches for both single and multiple populations. Lastly, we develop a model for mass gatherings and present an application to measles during the Hajj by studying an SIR deterministic metapopulation model with residency and its stochastic analogue. The models incorporate real world country data and time dependent movement and transmission rates, accounting for realistic volume of international travel and seasonality of measles activity. Numerical results for the deterministic system are presented. We conclude with a discussion on further work.

The thesis investigates how Agent-Based Modeling and Simulation (ABMS) and Queueing Theory (QT) techniques help manage mass gathering (MG) crowds. The techniques are applied to Hajj MG, which is one of the most complex annual MG, with a focus on its challenging Tawaf ritual. The objective is to develop a Tawaf Decision Support System (DSS) to better understand Tawaf crowd dynamics and discover decisions that lead to superior performance. TawafSIM is an ABMS model in the DSS, which simulates macro-level Tawaf crowd dynamics through micro-level pilgrim modeling to explore the impact of crowd characteristics, facility layout, and management preferences on emergent crowd behaviours with respect to throughput, satisfaction, health, and safety. Whereas, TawafQT is a QT model in the DSS to explore the impact of pilgrim arrival rate and Tawaf throughput on expected arrival, departure, and waiting times along with average queue length in the Tawaf waiting area. The thesis provides several contributions, including the following. First, it is the only Tawaf research to use a hybrid ABMS and QT approach. Second, TawafSIM is a comprehensive Tawaf simulator. It incorporates features for pilgrim characteristics, facility design, and management preferences. It calculates eight metrics for Tawaf performance, which includes one for throughput, three for satisfaction, one for health, and three for safety. It is the only Tawaf simulator to estimate satisfaction and spread of infectious disease. It conducts 42 simulation experiments in 12 categories. It generates observations for emergent, tipping point, expected, and counter intuitive behaviours. It recommends a default scenario as the best decision along with a small subset of alternative scenarios, which provide above average Tawaf performance. It generates a Tawaf Crowd Management Guide to better understand Tawaf crowd dynamics and how to pursue above average Tawaf performance under different conditions. Third, TawafQT is the only study of the Tawaf waiting area. It uses an accurate queueing model with finite source, single service, and PH type distribution, which is not only applicable to the Tawaf and other Hajj related queueing systems but also to any queueing system, which has finite population and single service characteristics.

Mass gatherings stress local and global health care systems as they bring together individuals from all over the world that have very different health conditions. We firstly provide an overview of the concepts and results of mathematical epidemiology and public health. Secondly, we present an introduction to the mathematical modelling of measles using deterministic and stochastic approaches for both single and multiple populations. Lastly, we develop a model for mass gatherings and present an application to measles during the Hajj by studying an SIR deterministic metapopulation model with residency and its stochastic analogue. The models incorporate real world country data and time dependent movement and transmission rates, accounting for realistic volume of international travel and seasonality of measles activity. Numerical results for the deterministic system are presented. We conclude with a discussion on further work.

The thesis investigates how Agent-Based Modeling and Simulation (ABMS) and Queueing Theory (QT) techniques help manage mass gathering (MG) crowds. The techniques are applied to Hajj MG, which is one of the most complex annual MG, with a focus on its challenging Tawaf ritual. The objective is to develop a Tawaf Decision Support System (DSS) to better understand Tawaf crowd dynamics and discover decisions that lead to superior performance. TawafSIM is an ABMS model in the DSS, which simulates macro-level Tawaf crowd dynamics through micro-level pilgrim modeling to explore the impact of crowd characteristics, facility layout, and management preferences on emergent crowd behaviours with respect to throughput, satisfaction, health, and safety. Whereas, TawafQT is a QT model in the DSS to explore the impact of pilgrim arrival rate and Tawaf throughput on expected arrival, departure, and waiting times along with average queue length in the Tawaf waiting area. The thesis provides several contributions, including the following. First, it is the only Tawaf research to use a hybrid ABMS and QT approach. Second, TawafSIM is a comprehensive Tawaf simulator. It incorporates features for pilgrim characteristics, facility design, and management preferences. It calculates eight metrics for Tawaf performance, which includes one for throughput, three for satisfaction, one for health, and three for safety. It is the only Tawaf simulator to estimate satisfaction and spread of infectious disease. It conducts 42 simulation experiments in 12 categories. It generates observations for emergent, tipping point, expected, and counter intuitive behaviours. It recommends a default scenario as the best decision along with a small subset of alternative scenarios, which provide above average Tawaf performance. It generates a Tawaf Crowd Management Guide to better understand Tawaf crowd dynamics and how to pursue above average Tawaf performance under different conditions. Third, TawafQT is the only study of the Tawaf waiting area. It uses an accurate queueing model with finite source, single service, and PH type distribution, which is not only applicable to the Tawaf and other Hajj related queueing systems but also to any queueing system, which has finite population and single service characteristics.

The Mīqāt of al-Juhfa is located in the west of Saudi Arabia about 187 km northwest of the Holy City of Mecca. Al-Juhfa is one of the five fixed places called Mawāqīt, or entry stations to the pilgrimage (Hajj). These Mawāqīt were designated during the early Islamic period for any pilgrim comes through them with the intention of Hajj. During the early Abbasid period, al-Juhfa was the largest occupied Mīqāt in the Islamic world. This study focuses primarily on historical and archaeological aspects of the Mīqāt of al-Juhfa during the early Islamic period. To illustrate these aspects, the study analyzed many primary sources that mention al-Juhfa in order to reconstruct the historical and cultural development of the site and to establish the extent to which it functions as an urban center. The study benefited from important information provided by these sources in this respect, such as the chronology of the site, its strategic location, topographical features, the nature of the landscape at different times, the function of specific objects, human activities that took place at the site, and factors that led to its prosperity and decline. The study also undertook a fieldwork at al-Juhfa site—primarily archaeological survey and excavation. This fieldwork enabled us to test the results of the textual analysis and to reveal other characteristics of the site (such as its cultural role, urban elements, planning and defences, architectural functions, building technique, building material, and other features). Moreover, the study analyzed both the formal and technical qualities of all archaeological discoveries on the site, comparing them with their analogues at other early Islamic sites in the Middle East. The study derived many results that clearly indicate the great importance of al-Juhfa as an urban center characterized by several urban functions during the early Abbasid period in the late of 8th century until its importance began to decline gradually between the second half of 11th century and the first half of 12th century. This chronology is supported by both written sources and the archaeological evidence. Several architectural elements and a collection of archaeological finds of different pieces of pottery, ceramic, glass, worked stone, and metal were discovered at al-Juhfa. These discoveries provide us with more information about the extent of mutual influence and active interaction between various cultures during pre-Islamic period as well as the high cultural and commercial level achieved by al-Juhfa and the relationship it had with other Islamic sites in the Middle East. / Graduate / 2019-06-26

Submitted by Luciana Ferreira (lucgeral@gmail.com) on 2018-05-07T13:39:49Z No. of bitstreams: 2 Dissertação - Thiago Damasceno Pinto Milhomem - 2018.pdf: 14290151 bytes, checksum: 86ef286d465a454e620f90c2592bfcb4 (MD5) license_rdf: 0 bytes, checksum: d41d8cd98f00b204e9800998ecf8427e (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Luciana Ferreira (lucgeral@gmail.com) on 2018-05-07T14:00:10Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 2 Dissertação - Thiago Damasceno Pinto Milhomem - 2018.pdf: 14290151 bytes, checksum: 86ef286d465a454e620f90c2592bfcb4 (MD5) license_rdf: 0 bytes, checksum: d41d8cd98f00b204e9800998ecf8427e (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2018-05-07T14:00:10Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 2 Dissertação - Thiago Damasceno Pinto Milhomem - 2018.pdf: 14290151 bytes, checksum: 86ef286d465a454e620f90c2592bfcb4 (MD5) license_rdf: 0 bytes, checksum: d41d8cd98f00b204e9800998ecf8427e (MD5) Previous issue date: 2018-02-27 / Pilgrimage to the holy city of Mecca (ḥajj) has been one of the pillars of Islam since the seventh century, the time of the advent of the religion in the Arabian Peninsula, as an ordering in the Holy Qur'an and in the sayings and deeds of Prophet Muḥammad. Being this pilgrimage mandatory for all faithful adults in good enough physical and material conditions, different personalities of the Islamic world have realized the sacred journey in different times. Many have left their written testimonies, as a legacy of their observations and impressions on societies and historical events of Islamic and non-Islamic domains, thus influencing the emergence of a specific literary genre of Arab-Islamic culture, the travel journal (rihla). One of the pioneers of this genre was Ibn Jubayr (1145-1217), a Muslim from the city of Valencia, writer of a journal of his travels to the region that today corresponds to the Middle East, between 1183 and 1185, a period between the Second and the Third Crusade. We use Ibn Jubayr's travel journal edited as “Through the East (Rihla)”, a version published by Alianza Literaria in 2007, and which consists of a translation from Arabic into Spanish by Felipe Maíllo Salgado. From this testimony, centered on the religious journey of the writer-traveler to Mecca, we analyze the possibilities and social conditions of ḥajj at the end of the twelfth century, in the context of the Crusades, a long-lasting historical phenomenon permeated by important religious, political, economic, military and cultural aspects / A peregrinação à cidade santa de Meca (ḥajj) é um dos pilares do Islã desde o século VII, época do advento da religião na Península Arábica, configurando como uma ordenação no Alcorão Sagrado e nos ditos e feitos do Profeta Muḥammad. Sendo essa peregrinação obrigatória para todo fiel adulto e são e em condições físicas e materiais para tal, diferentes personalidades do mundo islâmico realizaram a jornada sagrada em diversas épocas. Muitos deixaram seus testemunhos por escrito, legando à posteridade suas observações e impressões sobre sociedades e eventos históricos de domínios islâmicos e não islâmicos, influenciando assim no surgimento de um gênero literário específico da cultura árabe-islâmica, o relato de viagem (rihla). Um dos pioneiros do gênero foi Ibn Jubayr (1145-1217), muçulmano natural da cidade de Valência, escritor de um relato referente às suas viagens à região que hoje corresponde ao Oriente Médio, entre 1183 e 1185, período situado entre a Segunda e a Terceira Cruzada. Utilizamos o relato de viagens de Ibn Jubayr editado como A través del Oriente (Rihla), versão publicada pela editora Alianza Literaria em 2007 e que consiste em uma tradução do árabe para o espanhol feita por Felipe Maíllo Salgado. A partir desse testemunho, centrado no périplo religioso do viajante-escritor a Meca, analisaremos as possibilidades e condições sociais de realização do ḥajj em fins do século XII, contexto de Cruzadas, fenômeno histórico de longa duração permeado por importantes aspectos religiosos, políticos, econômicos, militares e culturais.

The global increase in the number of mass gatherings and crowded events has brought with it new emergencies and unintended consequences for public administrators and first responders. Crowd managers attempt to overcome these challenges by enhancing operations, alleviating financial losses, keeping event organizers safe from liability and, most importantly, keeping the attendees safe. Effective communication among and between officials and guests has been identified as a key element in this process. However, there is a lack of risk communication studies, especially about heterogeneous crowds that congregate at religious events. With this gap in mind, this research aims to investigate the use of major communication channels available and/or preferred by Muslim pilgrims in Makkah, Saudi Arabia during Hajj to gauge their effectiveness in communicating risk information. This annual religious pilgrimage was chosen because it attracts over 2 million pilgrims from more than 140 countries, most of whom speak different languages and belong to different cultures but perform the same rituals at the same time. This dissertation seeks to answer three broad research questions: “what are the most popular communication channels used by pilgrims,” “what are the weaknesses of the current communication strategies,” and “what can be done to improve risk communication among pilgrims, and between pilgrims and authorities to enhance crowd control and crowd management strategies.” The protective action decision model (PADM) is used as the theoretical framework to understand the influence of six factors (environmental cues, social cues, information sources, channel access and preferences, warning messages, and receiver characteristics) on risk communication. In collaboration with the Transportation and Crowd Management Center of Research Excellence (TCMCORE) of Saudi Arabia, a convenience sampling strategy was employed to interview 348 pilgrims in the Prophet’s Mosque area, during the Hajj of 2013. The surveys were conducted in Arabic and English and included pilgrims from different backgrounds and countries. Data analysis included an evaluation of the correlation between the use of risk communication channels and receiver characteristics, message content, and information sources. Findings highlight low percentages in the overall use of communication channels. It also demonstrated an over-dependence on channels that foster the passive top-down communication strategy (such as TV stations, messages at mosques, billboard, text messages, and pamphlets), while marginalizing channels that foster the horizontal and bottom-up strategies (such as bilingual staff outreach and social media). The findings also show the differences in risk communication channels used by pilgrims from different socio-demographic groups. The study concludes that adopting bottom-up and horizontal strategies is key to effective risk communication. Additionally, crowd managers must recognize the importance of social media and use this medium more proactively. They can also work towards increasing the overall effectiveness of risk communication channels by addressing the impact of information sources, channel access, and receiver characteristics to better suit the needs of pilgrims. Finally, the study states the limitations and future research directions.

This dissertation presents a data-driven computational epidemic framework to simulate disease epidemics at global mass gatherings. The annual Muslim pilgrimage to Makkah, Saudi Arabia is used to demonstrate the simulation and analysis of various disease transmission scenarios throughout the different stages of the event from the arrival to the departure of international participants. The proposed agent-based epidemic model efficiently captures the demographic, spatial, and temporal heterogeneity at each stage of the global event of Hajj. Experimental results indicate the substantial impact of the demographic and mobility patterns of the heterogeneous population of pilgrims on the progression of the disease spread in the different stages of Hajj. In addition, these simulations suggest that the differences in the spatial and temporal settings in each stage can significantly affect the dynamic of the disease. Finally, the epidemic simulations conducted at the different stages in this dissertation illustrate the impact of the differences between the duration of each stage in the event and the length of the infectious and latent periods. This research contributes to a better understanding of epidemic modeling in the context of global mass gatherings to predict the risk of disease pandemics caused by associated international travel. The computational modeling and disease spread simulations in global mass gatherings provide public health authorities with powerful tools to assess the implication of these events at a different scale and to evaluate the efficacy of control strategies to reduce their potential impacts.

Šarīf al-Raḍī, auteur incontournable pour qui souhaite étudier la poésie arabe à travers son histoire, peut difficilement être catalogué. En effet, bien qu’il ait profité des courant littéraire qui l’ont précédé, ce poète précoce, critique littéraire, juriste, linguiste et émir du hadj a petit à petit développé son propre genre poétique à travers les ḥiğāziyyāt, composant ainsi des poésies d’amour autour des lieux saints du pèlerinage. Cette étude visera donc dans un premier temps à comprendre ce qui fait l’originalité de ce genre en son temps pour enfin tenter de saisir la portée de l’influence des ḥiğāziyyāt sur la poésie arabe des siècles qui ont succédé à notre poète. / Šarīf al-Raḍī, major writer whose work has to be studied by anyone interested in Arabic poetry throughout time, can hardly be classified. While he took advantage from past literary movements, this poet, who started writing at an early age and became a literary critic as well as a linguist, a jurist and the emir of hajj, gradually developed a new poetical genre through his ḥiğāziyyāt. He thus composed love poems that revolve around the sacred places of pilgrimage. This study aims at understanding what made this genre unique in its time before trying to grasp the scope of the ḥiğāziyyāt’s influence on Arabic poetry in the following centuries.

Le califat de Hamdallahi a été gouverné successivement par trois dirigeants dont tous portaient le prénom « Amadou » pendant un demi-siècle de 1818 à 1862. La capitale du califat se trouvait dans la région du Macina au centre de l’actuel Mali en Afrique de l’Ouest. Cette région a connu de nombreuses mutations au XIXe siècle, particulièrement sur le plan intellectuel, politique et confrérique. Cette étude couvre uniquement la période de 1800 et 1866 dans la région du Macina. Ce travail s’est basé sur un texte polémique entre les Qādiris et les Tījānis ouest africains du XIXe siècle. Ce choix a pour but d’élargir davantage la documentation sur l’histoire du Macina et surtout faire connaître la littérature ouest africaine du XIXe siècle. L’historiographie de la région s’est jusqu’à présent fondée sur des jugements rapides ne reposant pas sur une étude approfondie des textes, l’intérêt de ce choix est justement de faire parler les textes autour de ces problématiques.Cette étude illustre en partie l’histoire intellectuelle et politique de l’Afrique de l’Ouest au XIXe siècle. Le texte a été composé après la victoire militaire d’al-Ḥājj Umar dans la région du Macina en 1862. Cette conquête a mis fin définitivement à l’existence d’un État théocratique connu sous le nom de califat de Hamdallahi, un des États les plus organisés politiquement en Afrique de l’ouest au XIXe siècle. Ce conflit politique s’est transformé en partie en un conflit d’ordre confrérique. Ibn Yerkoy Talfi disciple d’al-Ḥājj Umar et idéologue tījāni était dans le camp des vainqueurs et s’est retourné contre le plus haut responsable de la confrérie Qādiriyya subsaharienne Aḥmad al-Bakkay. Ce dernier était représentant de la confrérie Qādiriyya et se trouvait parmi les vaincus, Aḥmad al-Bakkay avaient longtemps critiqué al-Ḥājj Umar et sa confrérie.Une investigation beaucoup plus large et une analyse critique des textes nous ont permis de revenir sur certains sujets déjà étudiés auparavant par exemple : la surévaluation de la question confrérique en toile de fond, les enjeux des relations Kunta/Peuls dans la période étudiée. La manipulation des textes religieux pour des raisons politiques, historiques et sociales. / For half a century from 1818-1862, the Hamdallahi Caliphate was ruled by three successive leaders who each carried the name “Amadou.” The capital of the Caliphate was located in the Macina region which is in the center of modern-day Mali in West Africa. This region witnessed numerous changes over the course of the nineteenth century, especially in its intellectual, political and Sufi configurations. This study is focused exclusively on the period from 1800 to 1866 in the Macina region. The work is based on a polemical text about the differences between West African members of the Qādiriyya and Tījāniyya brotherhoods during the nineteenth century. This choice was made with the goal of expanding the documentary basis for the history of the Macina, and more than this, to make the West African literature of the nineteenth century better known. The historiography of the region has until now been based on quick analyses which are not based on deep study of texts and as such, the choice made here in this thesis is to concentrate on the contents of texts related to these problems. This study illustrates the intellectual and political history of West Africa in the nineteenth century. The text was written after the military victory of al-Ḥājj Umar in the Macina region in 1862. That conquest put a definitive end to the theocratic state known by the name of the Hamdallahi Caliphate, one of the best organized states in West Africa in the nineteenth century. The political conflict was transformed into a conflict between brotherhoods. Ibn Yerkoy Talfi was a disciple of al-Ḥājj Umar and a Tījāni ideologue who was part of the winning side, and it was directed against Aḥmad al-Bakkay, leader of the Qādiriyya brotherhood in sub-Saharan Africa. Aḥmad al-Bakkay was among those defeated in this conflict, and had been a longtime critic of al-Ḥājj Umar and his brotherhood.A much broader investigation and critical analysis of the texts allows us to return to certain topics which have already been studies such as the wider context of these events, the stakes in the relations between the Kunta and Fulɓe in the period studies, and the manipulation of religious texts for political, historical and social reasons.