As climate change continues, climactic extremes are predicted to become more frequent and intense, in some cases resulting in dramatic changes to ecosystems. The effects of climate change on ecosystems will be mediated, in part, by biotic interactions in those ecosystems. However, there is still considerable uncertainty about where and how such biotic interactions will be important in the context of ecosystem disturbance and climactic extremes. Here, I review the role of consumers in seagrass ecosystems and investigate the ecological impacts of an extreme climactic event (marine heat wave) and subsequent widespread seagrass die-off in Shark Bay, Western Australia. Specifically, I compare seagrass cover, shark catch rates, and encounter rates of air breathing fauna in multiple habitat types before and after the seagrass die-off to describe post-disturbance dynamics of the seagrass community, shifts in consumer abundances, and changes in risk-sensitive habitat use patterns by a variety of mesoconsumers at risk of predation from tiger sharks (Galeocerdo cuvier). Finally, I conducted a 16 month field experiment to assess whether xi loss of top predators, and predicted shifts in dugong foraging, could destabilize remaining seagrass. I found that the previously dominant temperate seagrass Amphibolis antarctica is stable, but not increasing. Conversely, an early-successional tropical seagrass, Halodule uninervis, is expanding. Following the die-off, the densities of several consumer species (cormorants, green turtles, sea snakes, and dugongs) declined, while others (Indo-Pacific bottlenose dolphins, loggerhead sea turtles, tiger sharks) remained stable. Stable tiger shark abundances following the seagrass die-off suggest that the seascape of fear remains intact in this system. However, several consumers (dolphins, cormorants) began to use dangerous but profitable seagrass banks more often following seagrass decline, suggesting a relaxation of anti-predator behavior. Experimental results suggest that a loss of tiger sharks would result in a behaviorally mediated trophic cascade (BMTC) in degraded seagrass beds, further destabilizing them and potentially resulting in a phase shift. My work shows that climactic extremes can have strong but variable impacts on ecosystems mediated in part by species identity, and that maintenance of top predator populations may by important to ecological resilience in the face of climate change.

<div><br></div><div>Extreme heat is one of the deadliest health hazards that is projected to increase in intensity and persistence in the near future. Temperatures are further exacerbated in the urban areas due to the Urban Heat Island (UHI) effect resulting in increased heat-related mortality and morbidity. However, the spatial distribution of urban temperatures is highly heterogeneous. As a result, metrics such as UHI Intensity that quantify the difference between the average urban and non-urban air temperatures, often fail to characterize this spatial and temporal heterogeneity. My objective in this thesis is to understand and characterize the spatio-temporal dynamics of UHI for cities across the world. This has several applications, such as targeted heat mitigation, energy load estimation, and neighborhood-level vulnerability estimation.</div><div><br></div><div>Towards this end, I have developed a novel multi-scale framework of identifying emerging heat clusters at various percentile-based thermal thresholds T_thr and refer to them collectively as <i>intra-Urban Heat Islets</i>. Using the Land Surface Temperatures from Landsat for 78 cities representative of the global diversity, I have showed that the heat islets have a fractal spatial structure. They display properties analogous to that of a percolating system as T_thr varies. At the percolation threshold, the size distribution of these islets in all cities follows a power-law, with a scaling exponent = 1.88 and an aggregated Area-Perimeter Fractal Dimension =1.33. This commonality indicates that despite the diversity in urban form and function across the world, the urban temperature patterns are different realizations with the same aggregated statistical properties. In addition, analogous to the UHI Intensity, the mean islet intensity, i.e., the difference between mean islet temperature and thermal threshold, is estimated for each islet, and their distribution follows an exponential curve. This allows for a single metric (exponential rate parameter) to serve as a comprehensive measure of thermal heterogeneity and improve upon the traditional UHI Intensity as a bulk metric.</div><div><br></div><div><br></div><div>To study the impact of urban form on the heat islet characteristics, I have introduced a novel lacunarity-based metric, which quantifies the degree of compactness of the heat islets. I have shown that while the UHIs have similar fractal structure at their respective percolation threshold, differences across cities emerge when we shift the focus to the hottest islets (T_thr = 90^th percentile). Analysis of heat islets' size distribution demonstrates the emergence of two classes where the dense cities maintain a power law, whereas the sprawling cities show an exponential deviation at higher thresholds. This indicates a significantly reduced probability of encountering large heat islets for sprawling cities. In contrast, analysis of heat islet intensity distributions indicates that while a sprawling configuration is favorable for reducing the mean Surface UHI Intensity of a city, for the same mean, it also results in higher local thermal extremes. </div><div><br></div><div>Lastly, I have examined the impact of external forcings such as heatwaves (HW) on the heat islet characteristics. As a case study, the European heatwave of 2018 is simulated using the Weather Research Forecast model with a focus on Paris. My results indicate that the UHI Intensity under this HW reduces during night time by 1^oC on average. A surface energy budget analysis reveals that this is due to drier and hotter rural background temperatures during the HW period.</div><div>To analyze the response of heat islets at every spatial scale, power spectral density analysis is done. The results show that large contiguous heat islets (city-scale) persist throughout the day during a HW, whereas the smaller islets (neighborhood-scale) display a diurnal variability that is the same as non-HW conditions. </div><div><br></div><div>In conclusion, I have presented a new viewpoint of the UHI as an archipelago of intra-urban heat islets. Along the way, I have introduced several properties that enable a seamless comparison of thermal heterogeneity across diverse cities as well as under diverse climatic conditions. This thesis is a step towards a comprehensive characterization of heat from the spatial scales of an urban block to a megalopolis.</div><div><br></div>

Indiana University-Purdue University Indianapolis (IUPUI) / During a 2011 summer dominated by headlines about an earthquake and a hurricane along the East Coast, extreme heat that silently killed scores of Americans largely went unnoticed by the media and public. However, despite a violent spasm of tornadic activity that claimed over 500 lives during the spring of the same year, heat-related mortality annually ranks as the top cause of death incident to weather. Two major data groups used in researching vulnerability to extreme heat events (EHE) include socioeconomic indicators of risk and factors incident to urban living environments. Socioeconomic determinants such as household income levels, age, race, and others can be analyzed in a geographic information system (GIS) when formatted as vector data, while environmental factors such as land surface temperature are often measured via raster data retrieved from satellite sensors. The current research sought to combine the insights of both types of data in a comprehensive examination of heat susceptibility using knowledge-based classification. The use of knowledge classifiers is a non-parametric approach to research involving the creation of decision trees that seek to classify units of analysis by whether they meet specific rules defining the phenomenon being studied. In this extreme heat vulnerability study, data relevant to the deadly July 1995 heat wave in Chicago’s Cook County was incorporated into decision trees for 13 different experimental conditions. Populations vulnerable to heat were identified in five of the 13 conditions, with predominantly low-income African-American communities being particularly at-risk. Implications for the results of this study are given, along with direction for future research in the area of extreme heat event vulnerability.

En Europe, les prairies permanentes représentent l’une des principales formes d’utilisation des terres. La durabilité des services rendus par ces écosystèmes est étroitement liée à la structure et au fonctionnement des communautés végétales qui les composent. La stabilité des processus écosystémiques, sous l’impact des fluctuations environnementales, va alors dépendre des mécanismes de résistance et de récupération propres à ces communautés. Les risques d’apparition d’extrêmes climatiques liés à l’évolution du climat, rendent nécessaire une adaptation des agro-écosystèmes à cette fluctuation climatique accrue. Cela implique de mieux comprendre les mécanismes par lesquels la variabilité du climat influe sur le fonctionnement et la structure des communautés végétales, et comment les pratiques agricoles impactent ces réponses. Cette thèse à pour objectif d’évaluer la vulnérabilité des prairies permanentes à un extrême climatique combinant une canicule et une sécheresse, dans un contexte de changement climatique. Afin d’identifier et de caractériser les mécanismes intrinsèques de la résistance à la sécheresse des communautés végétales, une démarche expérimentale mobilisant les concepts de l’écologie fonctionnelle a été développée. Les effets de la variabilité climatique sur la structure (diversité, composition) et le fonctionnement des communautés végétales ont d’abord été analysés in situ pendant 3 ans, après simulation d’une canicule-sécheresse dans les conditions climatiques actuelles et sous climat modifié (réchauffement et réduction des précipitations). Pour évaluer l’influence de la gestion sur la réponse des communautés végétales aux perturbations climatiques, deux fréquences de fauches ont été appliquées. Ce travail présente l’originalité d’avoir étudié conjointement le fonctionnement aérien et souterrain de la végétation. Sont considérées la production de biomasse, la démographie et la durée de vie des racines, afin de déterminer le rôle du système racinaire dans la résistance et la récupération des communautés végétales après une canicule sécheresse. Nous montrons un effet direct de l’extrême climatique sur la sénescence aérienne et la croissance racinaire dans les deux régimes de fauches. En réponse à un déficit hydrique modéré, la stratégie d’évitement au stress par le maintien de la croissance racinaire a été favorisée par des fauches non fréquentes. A l’automne suivant, les précipitations ont permis un reverdissement rapide de la couverture végétale et la production de nouvelles racines. Une baisse significative de la production de biomasse aérienne annuelle sous climat modifié, et suite à l’application de l’extrême climatique, a été observée pendant les 3 années d’expérimentation. En revanche, la production racinaire n’a pas été significativement affectée. Néanmoins une acclimatation de la croissance racinaire a été mise en évidence un an après l’extrême, en particulier dans les communautés de fauches non fréquemment. Ces changements de fonctionnement aériens et souterrains peuvent s’expliquer en partie par des modifications de la composition botanique. De plus, en réponse aux perturbations climatiques, la mortalité racinaire a été interrompue. Ces résultats inattendus ont donc entrainé une augmentation de la durée de vie des racines et suggèrent un effet négatif sur le turnover racinaire et les cycles biogéochimiques. Une expérimentation complémentaire à l’étude in situ a été menée en conditions semicontrôlées pour déterminer les mécanismes intrinsèques de la résistance à la sécheresse de la prairie permanente. Des traits morphologiques et physiologiques, aériens et souterrains, ont été mesurés sur des monocultures de sept populations prairiales en conditions optimales, puis en conditions de sécheresse afin de caractériser leurs stratégies de survie. Les résultats ont mis en évidence le rôle du système racinaire dans la survie des plantes. (...) / In Europe, grassland is one of the dominant forms of land use. The sustainability of their environmental and ecological services is linked to plant community structure and functioning. Under climatic constraints, the stability of community functioning will depend on plant resistance and recovery mechanisms. Actually, increase in climate variability linked to climate change, is expected to lead to more frequent and more intense climate extremes.Therefore, it is necessary to adapt ecosystem management to climate variability increase. This imply to improve our knowledge on mechanisms by which climate drivers modify the structure and the functioning of plant community, and to determine how the agricultural practices affect these responses. Therefore, this study aimed to characterise vulnerability of perennial grassland to combined heat wave and severe drought and to determine mechanisms of plant community resistance to drought. For this, an experimental approach was developed based on the functional ecology concepts. The effect of climate variability on the structure (diversity and composition) and the functioning of plant community were first analyzed in situ during three years. Microclimate of the vegetation was manipulated to simulate warming, precipitation reduction, heat wave combined to severe drought. To analyse the role of grassland management in plant community responses to climate disturbances, two contrasted cutting frequencies were applied. This work has the originality to analyse both above- and below-ground processes of plant community. Thus, above- and below-ground biomass production, root demography and longevity were considered to determine the role of root system in resistance and recovery of plant community after a severe drought. In both cutting frequencies, our results showed direct effects of climate extreme on leaf senescence and root growth. However, in response to moderate water deficit, drought avoidance through maintenance of root growth was favoured by infrequent cutting frequency. After rehydration in the following autumn, canopy greenness and root growth rapidly recovered. Annual above-ground production was significantly decreased by climate change and climate extreme during the three years of the experiment. However no effect was observed on root production but acclimation of root growth was observed one year after the climate extreme, particularly under infrequent cuts. Plant community structure was significantly modified be climate disturbance and could explain change in community functioning. In addition, root mortality was surprisingly decreased in response to climate disturbance that consequently increases root longevity. These results suggest negative effects of climate disturbances on root turnover with lasting effects on nutrient cycles.To determine intrinsic mechanisms of plant community for drought resistance and recovery, an additional experiment was carried out in semi-controlled conditions. Therefore, morphological and physiological leaf and root traits were measured under full irrigation, moderate and severe drought on monocultures of seven perennial grassland populations to study plant functional strategies of drought survival. Roots were implicated in drought avoidance by maintaining water uptake and drought tolerance by accumulating sucrose and/or fructans. Morphological and physiological root traits were thus correlated to plant survivalafter drought. (...)

Prévoir et estimer le risque de canicule est un enjeu politique majeur. Évaluer la probabilité d'apparition des canicules et leurs sévérités serait possible en connaissant la température en temps continu. Cependant, les extrêmes journaliers (maxima et minima) sont parfois les seules données disponibles. Pour modéliser la dynamique des températures, il est courant d'utiliser un processus d'Ornstein-Uhlenbeck. Une estimation des paramètres de ce processus n'utilisant que les suprema journaliers observés est proposée. Cette nouvelle approche se base sur une minimisation des moindres carrés faisant intervenir la fonction de répartition du supremum. Les mesures de risque liées aux canicules sont ensuite obtenues numériquement. Pour exprimer explicitement ces mesures de risque, il peut être utile d'avoir la loi jointe du processus d'Ornstein-Uhlenbeck et de son supremum. L'étude se limite tout d'abord à la fonction de répartition / densité jointe du point final du processus et de son supremum. Cette probabilité admet une densité, solution de l'équation de Fokker-Planck, obtenue explicitement et utilisant les fonctions spéciales paraboliques cylindriques. La preuve de l'expression de la densité repose sur une décomposition sur une base hilbertienne de l'espace via une méthode spectrale. On étudie également le processus d'Ornstein-Uhlenbeck oscillant, dont le paramètre de drift est constant par morceaux selon le signe du processus. La transformée de Laplace du temps d'atteinte de ce processus est déterminée et la probabilité que le processus soit positif en un temps donné est calculée. / Forecasting and assessing the risk of heat waves is a crucial public policy stake. Evaluate the probability of heat waves and their severity can be possible by knowing the temperature in continuous time. However, daily extremes (maxima and minima) might be the only available data. The Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process is commonly used to model temperature dynamic. An estimation of the process parameters using only daily observed suprema of temperatures is proposed here. This new approach is based on a least square minimization using the cumulative distribution function of the supremum. Risk measures related to heat waves are then obtained numerically. In order to calculate explicitly those risk measures, it can be useful to have the joint law of the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process and its supremum. The study is _rst limited to the joint density / distribution of the endpoint and supremum of the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process. This probability admits a density, solution of the Fokker-Planck equation and explicitly obtained as an expansion involving parabolic cylinder functions. The proof of the density expression relies on a decomposition on a Hilbert basis of the space via a spectral method. We also study the oscillating Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process, which drift parameter is piecewise constant depending on the sign of the process. The Laplace transform of this process hitting time is determined and we also calculate the probability for the process to be positive on a fixed time.

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