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Property Valuation by Machine Learning and Hedonic Pricing Models : A Case study on Swedish Residential Property / Fastighetsvärderingar efter maskininlärning och hedoniska prissättningsmodeller : En fallstudie om svensk bostadsfastigheterTeang, Kanha, Lu, Yiran January 2021 (has links)
Property valuation is a critical concept for a variety of applications in the real estate market such as transactions, taxes, investments, and mortgages. However, there is little consistency in which method is the best for estimating the property value. This paper aims at investigating and comparing the differences in the Stockholm residential property valuation results among parametric hedonic pricing models (HPM) including linear and log-linear regression models, and Random Forest (RF) as the machine learning algorithm. The data consists of 114,293 arm-length transactions of the tenant-owned apartment between January 2005 to December 2014. The same variables are applied on both the HPM regression models and RF. There are two adopted techniques for data splitting into training and testing datasets, randomly splits and splitting based on the transaction years. These datasets will be used to train and test all the models. The performance evaluation and measurement of each model will base on four performance indicators: R-squared, MSE, RMSE, and MAPE. The results from both data splitting circumstances have shown that the accuracy of random forest is the highest among the regression models. The discussions point out the causes of the models’ performance changes once applied on different datasets obtained from different data splitting techniques. Limitations are also pointed out at the end of the study for future improvements. / Fastighetsvärdering är ett kritiskt koncept för en mängd olika applikationer på fastighetsmarknaden som transaktioner, skatter, investeringar och inteckningar. Det finns dock liten konsekvens i vilken metod som är bäst för att uppskatta fastighetsvärdet. Denna uppsats syftar till att undersöka och jämföra skillnaderna i Stockholms fastighetsvärderingsresultat bland parametriska hedoniska prissättningsmodeller (HPM) inklusive linjära och log-linjära regressionsmodeller, och Random Forest (RF) som maskininlärningsalgoritm. Uppgifterna består av 114,293 armlängds-transaktioner för hyresgästen från januari 2005 till december 2014. Samma variabler tillämpas på både HPM-regressionsmodellerna och RF. Det finns två antagna tekniker för uppdelning av data i utbildning och testning av datamängder: slumpmässig uppdelning och uppdelning baserat på transaktionsåren. Dessa datamängder kommer att användas för att träna och testa alla modeller. Prestationsutvärderingen och mätningen av varje modell baseras på fyra resultatindikatorer: R-kvadrat, MSE, RMSE och MAPE. Resultaten från båda uppdelningsförhållandena har visat att noggrannheten hos slumpmässig skog är den högsta bland regressionsmodellerna. Diskussionerna pekar på orsakerna till modellernas prestandaförändringar när de tillämpats på olika datamängder erhållna från olika datasplittringstekniker. Begränsningar påpekas också i slutet av studien för framtida förbättringar.
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應用大量估價法進行公告土地現值評估之研究蘇文賢 Unknown Date (has links)
現行公告土地現值的評估,係採用人工的傳統方法,估價結果誤差甚大且過於主觀,無法達到大量估價客觀、快速、精確之目標。本文首先利用土地經濟理論的分析,探討土地市場價值、交易價格、評估價值之間的關係,釐清常見的混淆概念。並藉由估價比率研究,討論公告現值與市價差距的檢定模型,針對台南市的實際資料進行統計檢定,結果發現平均估價比率落於46.74﹪~48.52﹪之區間,並存在輕微的垂直不公平。
為改進現行公告現值不夠準確之缺失,本研究基於都市經濟理論與估價先驗訊息之基礎,利用特徵價格法與可加性模型建立大量估價模式。實證結果發現,影響台南市地價之因素,以區位、臨街關係、路寬、使用分區最為重要。在部份年度中,亦證實存在基地面積規模不經濟(plattage)現象。
傳統特徵價格法必須預設函數型態,若函數設定錯誤則將使參數估計產生偏誤。可加性模型結合無母數迴歸與母數迴歸之優點,不須預設函數型態、估計結果易於解釋且維持母數迴歸之收斂速度。其可經由修勻法配適出更客觀的函數關係,無論在樣本內與樣本外之估計均較特徵價格法為佳。
研究結果發現,本文所提出的二種估價模式確可達到快速精確的目標,使估價比率接近1,比目前評估效率提高一倍;在公平性方面雖無改善,但亦無嚴重之垂直不公平。其中可加性模型又較特徵價格法為佳,在電腦技術快速進步的今天,應用至大量估價的可行性大為提高,值得後續進一步深入研究。 / The present Announced Land Current Value (ALCV)was evaluated by traditional appraisal method that may result in large errors. Comparing to mass assessment approaches, it is hard to be objective, quick and precise. This research begins with the analysis based on land economic theory to discuss the relation among the market value, sale price and assessed value of land in order to clarify some confusing concepts. Through assessment-sale price ratio study, we analyze the difference between ALCV and sale price, and then use the actual data of Tainan City for empirical study. The results show that the average a-s ratio falls between 46.74%~48.52% with slight vertical inequity.
To improve the lack of preciseness and objectivity of the present ALCV, this research uses hedonic price theory and Generalized Additive Model(GAM)based on urban economic theory and appraisal priori information. The results show that location, relations with adjacent streets, road width and zoning are the most influencing factors of land price in Tainan City. During some years, the phenomenon of plattage effect also exits.
The function form must be set beforehand in the traditional hedonic pricing, meanwhile parameters bias will occur if the pre-determined function form were wrong. GAM has the advantages of nonparametric regression and parametric regression. The function form needs not to be pre-determined, the empirical results are easy to interpret, and the speed of variable convergence can be maintained. More precise functional relations can also be smoothed by GAM. It is superior to the traditional hedonic price in the sample and out of the sample prediction alike.
The results of empirical study show that both of two models can reach the goal of rapidity and preciseness and make the a-s ratio toward 1. As to the equity, although they are not improved very much, the models don't bring serious vertical inequity. However, GAM is better than hedonic pricing when compared to each other. Due to the great progress of computer technology, the application of GAM to mass assessment can be increased greatly and is worthy continuing further study.
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The Price of Fear : Estimating the economic effect of fear of crimeusing sold apartments in Stockholm, SwedenErik, Nytell January 2022 (has links)
Fear of crime may differ between areas, even if levels of crime do not differ. Policymakers and companies should be interested in how much economical values individuals put on their emotions. No previous paper has tried to estimate the economic consequences of the kind of fear of crime that does not stem from an increase in crime. Through a hedonic fixed effect-approach and a unique data set, I close this gap by estimating the willingness to pay to avoid that fear. As the outcome variable, I use sold apartments in Stockholm municipality in the years 2017 and 2020. I find suggestive evidence of small to moderate effect of fear of crime on housing prices, even after controlling for crime levels, with an elasticity of -2% to -6%. The results are robust throughout different robustness tests. These findings may help politicians in their cost-benefit analyses when planning safety-increasing projects.
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空地開發外部性對住宅土地價格影響之研究-台南市的實證分析 / Spatial Externalities Impact of development of vacant land on Residential Land Prices-Evidence from Tainan City曾菁敏, Tseng,Ching Min Unknown Date (has links)
人類的思考決策與行為結果,大多是依循一個明確的市場制度而為的,故市場經濟制度的重要性,就在於有利個人形成如何有效配置資源的合理預期,同時也富有約束及激勵個人行為的誘因,讓個人能在制度約束的條件下,追求自利動機的極大化。都市空地再利用及市地重劃的法令制度,就具有這樣的經濟效應,所以本研究主要在探討,在空地再利用及市地重劃制度的約束與激勵條件下,都市中的經濟人行為決策與個體互動所形成的空間外部性,其會如何反應在住宅土地價格的變動,以探討空地再利用及空地開發所產生的空間外部性對住宅土地價格之影響。本文主要包括(1)空地再利用對住宅土地價格之影響;(2)空地再利用及鄰里土地開發對新建住宅土地價格之影響;(3)空間外部性、交易成本與市地重劃對新建住宅土地價格之影響等。
首先,有關「空地再利用對住宅土地價格之影響」,本文以Geoghegan(2002)的理論模型為基礎,主要探討空地再利用所產生的開放空間效果,其對於住宅土地價格的影響分析。本文運用地理資訊系統及空間計量分析,並建立民國九十三年及九十四年住宅土地的特徵價格模型,研究對象以台南市為例。實證結果發現,公有空地再利用作為公園及臨時停車場使用,其對於住宅土地價格產生正的空間外溢效果,此表示空地再利用所產生的開放空間的外溢利益,其大於空地管理維護的外溢成本。私有空地再利用作為運動場使用,民國九十三年的外部成本大於外部利益,但於民國九十四年的外部利益大於外部成本,故就私有空地再利用的外溢效果而言,私有空地再利用作為運動場使用的外溢效果可由負向轉為正向。公有空地再利用的邊際價格較私有空地再利用的邊際價格為高,故政府應繼續推動公有空地再利用的政策,以彌補鄰里的開放空間不足。
其次,有關「空地再利用及鄰里土地開發對新建住宅土地價格之影響」,本文主要在探討空地再利用所產生的開放空間效果,及鄰里土地開發所產生的空間外溢效果,兩者對於新建住宅土地價格的影響分析,本研究範圍以台南市民國九十三年的新建住宅為對象。實證結果發現,公有空地再利用對於新建住宅土地價格具有正的空間外溢效果,此表示開放空間的外溢利益大於空地管理維護的外溢成本。鄰里土地開發作為住宅使用時,會對新建住宅土地價格形成正的空間外溢效果,但當鄰里土地開發作為工廠使用時,卻會對新建住宅土地價格形成負的空間外溢效果。最有價值的住宅土地為,開放空間數量最大化及土地開發數量的最小化,故當永久性的開放空間(如鄰里公園)、可開發性的開放空間(如公有空地再利用)數量增加,以及鄰里工廠土地開發數量減少等,其將有助提高新建住宅土地價格。
最後,有關「空間外部性、交易成本與市地重劃對新建住宅土地價格之影響」,本文主要從政府實施市地重劃有助於降低交易成本的觀點,探討政府實施市地重劃制度及建設商的土地開發行為所產生的空間外部性,其反應在新建住宅土地價格的影響。本文運用空間計量分析及地理資訊系統,並結合Box-Cox函數轉換,以建構具有空間外部性的特徵價格模型。本文研究範圍以台南市民國八十年、八十五年及九十年的新建住宅為對象。實證結果得知,空間誤差Box-Cox模型對於空間外部性提供良好的解釋力。政府實施市地重劃之後對住宅土地價格具有正向外部性,且有政府參與的重劃區所反應的住宅土地邊際價格為正向關係。而建設商個體互動關係則具有正向及負向外部性,並在長期下出現由正向轉為負向之情況,此證明空間外部性會呈現相互性的現象,進而反應在新建住宅土地價格上會有增減的作用。 / This study mainly assumes that development of vacant land give rise to spatial externalities from the reuse of vacant land and the institution of land readjustment. Finally, this effect will be reflected in the residential land prices. To test this hypothesis, this study applies spatial econometric and geographic information systems based on hedonic pricing model. This study mainly includes that (1) The Impact of Reusing Vacant Land on Residential Land Prices, ( 2) The Impact of Reusing Vacant Land and Neighboring Land Development on Newly-Built Residential Land Prices, ( 3) The Impact of Spatial Externalities, Transaction Costs and Land Readjustment on Newly-Built Residential Land Prices, and evidence from Tainan City in Taiwan.
First of all, about’ The Impact of Reusing Vacant Land on Residential Land Prices’, This study is based on Geoghegan’s theoretical model (2002) and focuses on open space effect of reusing vacant land on residential land prices. The data are selected from residential land prices in 2004, 2005. Empirically, I find that the reuse of publicly-owned vacant land used for green and park has positive spatial spillover effects. This means that spillover benefit of open space is more than spillover cost of vacant land management. The reuse of privately-owned vacant land used for sport has negative spatial spillover effects in 2004. The marginal price of publicly-owned vacant land is over than privately-owned vacant land. It is concluded that, the government should continue promoting the reuse of publicly-owned vacant land and used for open space of the neighborhood.
Secondly, about’ The Impact of Reusing Vacant Land and Neighboring Land Development on Newly-Built Residential Land Prices’, This study focuses on open space effect of reusing vacant land and spatial spillover effect of neighboring land development on newly-built residential land prices. The data are selected from newly-built residence in 2004. Empirically, I find that the reuse of publicly-owned vacant land has positive spatial spillover effects on newly-built residential land prices. This means that spillover benefit of open space is more than spillover cost of vacant land management. Land development used for residence has positive spatial spillover effects and used for factory has negative spatial spillover effects in a neighborhood. This means that more the reuse of publicly-owned vacant land will increase newly-built residential land prices, while more land development used for factory will decrease newly-built residential land prices in a neighborhood.
Finally, about’ The Impact of Spatial Externalities, Transaction Costs and Land Readjustment on Newly-Built Residential Land Prices’, This Study mainly assumes that land readjustment can reduce transaction costs in terms of the spatial externalities from developers’ behavior and the institution of land readjustment. This effect will be reflected in the newly-built residential land prices. To test this hypothesis, I apply spatial econometric analysis and geographic information systems based on the Box-Cox hedonic pricing model. The data are selected from newly-built residence from between 1991, 1996 and 2001. Empirically, I find that the spatial error Box-Cox model is appropriate for engaging in spatial externalities analysis. This is because the results show that land readjustment gives rise to positive spatial externalities on newly-built residential land prices and the marginal price of residential land in areas where land readjustment takes place is also positive. The effects of developers’ interactions give rise to positive spatial externalities but these change to negative spatial externalities in relation to newly-built residential land prices in the long term. It is concluded that, land readjustment as implemented by the government really does contribute to reducing uncertainty in the land development process, and also reduces transaction costs between construction practitioners and landlords.
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L'accès des ménages abidjanais aux services de collecte des déchets : 3 essais d'évaluation des bénéfices. / The households access to waste collection services in Abidjan : three attempts of evaluation of profitsKoné, Noukignon 21 November 2017 (has links)
L’augmentation de la quantité des déchets ménagers dans le District d’Abidjan constitue une pression énorme pour l’environement et la santé des populations. Les soutiens ponctuels des organismes internationaux tels que la Banque Mondiale et la présence de nombreux acteurs (Etat, institutions internationales, acteurs locaux) n’ont pas empêché la persistance de la problématique de la gestion des déchets dans l’agglomération abidjanaise. La faiblesse du rendement et du taux de recouvrement de la Taxe d’Enlèvement des Ordures Ménagères imputée aux ménages pour la gestion des ordures, ne permet pas de répondre aux besoins de financement de la filière. Ainsi, cette thèse analyse les conditions et effets de l’accès des ménages d’Abidjan à un service amélioré de collecte des déchets. Pour cela, nous avons mené une enquête d’évaluation contingente (consentement à payer). En recourant à un modèle de choix discret (probit), nous avons pu mettre en évidence le lien entre les caractéristiques des ménages et leur volonté à participer à une gestion améliorée de leurs ordures. Nous avons démontré l’existence d’un lien entre l’accès à des services de collecte des déchets et aux latrines améliorées. Ce résultat va dans le sens des ODD qui préconisent une gestion intégrée de l’assainissement. Le recours à une méthode d’appariement a permis d’évaluer, de manière originale, les bénéfices du recours à un service informel de pré-collecte des déchets pour les ménages enquêtés. Les déterminants de la demande avérée pour un service informel ont d’abord été identifiés. L’indice de richesse (richesse matérielle), le genre, la durée de stockage des ordures, le fait que le ménage considère les maladies comme étant le problème majeur lié aux déchets, sont les facteurs qui expliquent le recours à un service de pré-collecte de leurs ordures. Par ailleurs, ce recours génère, d’après les résultats de la modélisation, des bénéfices socio-économiques quantifiables en termes d’une part, de développement socio-économique et humain et d’autre part, en termes de solutions de financement de la filière par la mise en place d’une taxe incitative (au ramassage des ordures). Enfin, à l’aide de la méthode des prix hédonistes appliquée aux données de notre enquête, nous avons identifié une relation positive entre les équipements de base d’un logement tel que l’accès à l’eau, à l’électricité et aux latrines et le prix des loyers. En revanche, la faible qualité du service actuel de collecte des ordures ménagères dans les quartiers enquêtés ou le fait que la charge liée à la collecte soit récurrente, expliqueraient sa non influence sur le prix locatif des logements. / The increase in amount of household wastes in Abidjan is an enormous strain on the environment and on the health of local populations.Support from international institutions such as the World Bank and the presence of many actors (State, international institutions and local actors) have not prevented the persistence of the waste management problem in Abidjan. In this thesis, we analyse the conditions and implications of households for improved waste collection service in Abidjan. For this, we conducted a contingent valuation survey (willingness to pay). By using a discrete choice (probit) model, we were able to highlight the link between household characteristics and their willingness to participate in improved waste management. We have demonstrated a link between access to waste collection services and improved latrines. This result is in line with the SDGs, which advocate integrated sanitation management.At first, the determinants of the demand turned out for an informal service were identified. The wealth index, the gender, the duration of storage of the garbage, the fact that the household considers the diseases as being the major problem bound to waste, are the factors which explain the recourse to a service of pre-collection of their garbage. Besides, this recourse generates, according to the results of the modelling, quantifiable socioeconomic profits in terms of socioeconomic and human development in the first hand and on the other hand, in terms of solutions of financing of the sector by the implementation of an incentive tax. Finally, by using the hedonic price method, which applied to our survey data, we identified a positive relationship between the basic attachments of a dwelling such as access to water, electricity and latrines and the price of rents. On the other hand, the low quality of the current garbage collection service would explain its no-influence on the rental price of housing
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The Value of School Quality Under Free Choice : An Empirical Study of School Quality on Residential Prices in Västerås, Sweden / Värdet av utbildningskvalité givet ett fritt skolval : En empirisk studie av utbildningskvalité och bostadspriser i Västerås, SverigeDesai, Akarsh, Karlsson, Simon January 2022 (has links)
Education is one of the most important public goods that society can provide, and researchers have since long agreed that schools' performances are capitalized into residential property prices. However, all previous research is based on residential markets where school districts prevail. This study aims to investigate how the capitalization of residential properties are affected when pupils have free choice and how proximity to schools affect this relationship. The study covers the years 2011 to 2018 and is based in Västerås municipality, Sweden. Through a hedonic pricing model with a semi-logarithmic form, that includes both fixed effects through postal codes and yearly fixed effects, we can show that school quality is capitalized into residential property prices. The quality of schools is estimated through four types of school characteristics; pass rates in national tests, pupil-to-teacher ratio, pupil ethnicity and parental educational background which are combined into a single variable using Principal Component Analysis (PCA). Using geo-coordinates, school characteristics are assigned to properties in two different scenarios. In the first, only school characteristics of the closest school are assigned to properties. In the second, properties are assigned the average characteristics of all schools within a radius of 875 meters from the home i.e., walking distance for pupils in third grade. Our results show that quality of education is capitalized in property prices even if pupils are not limited by school districts. We find that if school quality is improved by one unit, the price of local apartments and houses increases by 2.13-3.06% and 2.07-2.19%, respectively. The results also indicate that capitalization is affected by how many schools are within walking distance. Residentials in close proximity of several schools have more options and thus experiences a stronger capitalization effect than properties close to only one school. / Utbildning är en av de viktigaste funktionerna som samhället kan tillhandahålla, och forskningen har sedan länge varit överens om att skolors prestationer kapitaliseras i bostadspriser. All tidigare forskning är dock baserad på bostadsmarknader strukturerade efter skoldistrikt. Denna studie syftar till att undersöka hur kapitaliseringen av bostäder påverkas av ett fritt skolval samt hur avstånd till skolor påverkar detta förhållande. Studien omfattar åren 2011 till 2018 och är baserad i Västerås kommun, Sverige. Genom en hedonisk prissmodell med semilogaritmisk form, som inkluderar både fixed effects genom postnummer och årliga fixed effects, kan vi visa att utbildningskvalité kapitaliseras i bostadspriserna. Utbildningskvalité uppskattas genom värdet av fyra typer av skolvariabler; andelen godkända elever i nationella prov, elever per lärare, elevens etnicitet och föräldrarnas utbildningsbakgrund som kombineras till en enskild variabel genom Principal Component Analysis (PCA). Med hjälp av geokoordinater tilldelas bostäderna skolors unika värden i två olika scenarier. I det första tilldelas bostäderna endast värdet för den närmsta skolan. I den andra tilldelas bostäderna ett genomsnittligt värde av alla skolor inom en radie av 875 meter från bostaden, dvs. gångavstånd för elever i tredje klass. Våra resultat visar att utbildningens kvalitet kapitaliseras i bostadspriserna även om eleverna inte begränsas av skoldistrikt. Vi finner att om utbildningskvalitén förbättras med en enhet så ökar priset på lägenheter och hus i området med 2.13-3.06% respektive 2.07-2.19%. Resultaten tyder också på att kapitaliseringen påverkas av hur många skolor som ligger inom gångavstånd. Bostäder i närheten av flera skolor har fler valmöjligheter och får därmed en starkare kapitaliseringseffekt än bostäder nära endast en skola.
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Odhalené preference pro rekreaci v přírodě - česká a evropská perspektiva / Revealed preferences for outdoor recreation in natural areas - Czech and European perspectiveKaprová, Kateřina January 2019 (has links)
K. Kaprová (2019): Revealed preferences for outdoor recreation in natural areas - Czech and European perspective Abstract of the Doctoral Dissertation The dissertation thesis focuses on the investigation and synthesis of recreation welfare benefits associated with natural areas in the Czech Republic and in Europe. The dissertation thesis consists of five case studies. These represent various geographic levels of analysis: the level of one single recreation locality, the national level that takes into account large natural recreation sites in the Czech Republic (including protected areas), and a synthesis of results of studies on the European level. The methodological approach is based on the theory of environmental economics and employs non-market valuation techniques based on methods of revealed preferences, namely the hedonic pricing method and two types of travel cost modelling. In Study I, we examine how the presence and characteristics of urban greenery affect property prices in Prague. The results confirm that proximity to greenery and its area are important determinants of housing prices in Prague, which means that residents realize the positive values provided by urban greenery, including recreational ecosystem service. Benefits to residents differ with the type of greenery. Urban forests have the...
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