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Les répercussions de la hausse mondiale des prix du logement à partir des années 1980 sur l’économie ont attiré un intérêt croissant pour la recherche. Le logement représentant une part importante des dépenses des ménages ainsi que de la richesse totale, il est important de comprendre le rôle du logement dans l’inégalité des richesses. Cependant, en raison de la disponibilité des données, peu de choses ont été faites pour comprendre ce problème. La richesse des ménages s’accumulant à partir de deux sources principales : l’épargne et les transferts de capital, il est important de comprendre le lien qui existe entre ces sources et le marché du logement lorsque les prix de l’habitation changent. Ainsi, les deux premiers chapitres de cette thèse visent à mieux comprendre l’importance de la filière logement pour l’économie. Plus précisément, le premier chapitre attire l’attention sur la corrélation entre les prix du logement et la production. En introduisant différents chocs dans l’économie, nous pouvons analyser leurs effets sur les prix du logement et l’accumulation de capital, ainsi que sur le mécanisme de transmission de ces chocs. D’autre part, le deuxième chapitre porte sur la manière dont le transfert intergénérationnel rend l’inégalité persistante via le marché du logement. En considérant une économie avec deux actifs d’investissement différents : le logement et le capital, nous montrons qu’il existe un équilibre dans lequel le logement est plus rentable que le capital. En tant que famille riche, c’est-à-dire celle qui a hérité d’une richesse relativement plus grande, peut accéder au marché du logement alors que la famille pauvre ne le peut pas en raison de la contrainte d’emprunt, l’inégalité persiste à long terme. En outre, le patrimoine et les transferts entre ménages sont les deux canaux de transmission essentiels qui relient la richesse de manière différente. Bien que l’on pense que les transferts entre ménages contribuent au développement du capital humain et donc des revenus du travail, l’héritage joue un rôle décisif dans l’accumulation de capital et de richesse. Les données du compte de transfert national en France nous ont montré qu’au cours des dernières décennies, la composition des transferts privés a sensiblement évolué : d’une part plus dominante des transferts entre ménages à une part plus dominante en matière de succession. Ce changement entraînant deux effets négatifs, il est donc intéressant de comprendre pourquoi et comment cela se produit, ainsi que son lien avec l’inégalité de la richesse. Ces questions sont abordées dans le troisième chapitre de ma thèse. / Impacts of the global rise of housing price from 1980s on the economy has attracted a surging research interest. As housing represent a major share of household expenditure as well as total wealth, it’s important to understand the role of housing on wealth inequality. Yet, due to data availability, little has been done to understand this issue. As wealth of households is accumulated from two main sources: capital savings and transfers, it’s important to understand how these sources are linked to housing market when there’s a shift in housing prices. Thus, the first two chapters of this thesis aim to a better understanding on the importance of housing channel on the economy. More specifically, the first chapter draws attention on the co-movement between housing prices and production output. By introducing different shocks to the economy, we can analyse their impacts on housing prices and capital accumulation as well as the mechanism in which these shocks are transmitted. On the other hand, the second chapter focuses on how intergenerational transfer makes inequality persistent via the housing market. By considering an economy with two different investment assets: housing and capital, we show that that there exists an equilibrium in which housing is more profitable than capital. As the rich family, i.e. the one who inherited relatively higher wealth, can access the housing market while the poor one can’t due to the borrowing constraint, inequality maintains in the long run. Furthermore, bequest and intrahousehold transfer are the two essential transmission channels that link to wealth in different way. While intrahousehold transfer is believed to contribute to the development of individual’s human capital and hence labour incomes, inheritance plays a decisive role in one’s accumulation of capital and wealth. Data from the national transfer account in France showed us that over the last decades, there has been a notable change in a composition of private transfers: from a more dominant share of intrahousehold transfers to a more dominant inheritance one. As this shift triggers two adverse effects, it’s therefore interesting to understand why and how it happens as well as how it is related to wealth inequality. These questions are addressed in the third chapter of my thesis.

This paper evaluates the monetary and macroprudential policies that mitigate the procyclicality arising from the interlinkages between current account deficits and financial vulnerabilities. We develop a two-country dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model with heterogeneous households and collateralised debt. The model predicts that external shocks are important in driving current account deficits that are coupled with run-ups in house prices and household debt. In this context, optimal policy features an interest-rate response to credit and a LTV ratio that countercyclically responds to house price dynamics. By allowing an interest-rate response to changes in financial variables, the monetary policy authority improves social welfare, because of the large welfare gains accrued to the Savers. The additional use of a countercyclical LTV ratio that responds to house prices, increases the ability of borrowers to smooth consumption over the cycle and is Pareto improving. Domestic and foreign shocks account for a similar fraction of the welfare gains delivered by such a policy. (authors' abstract)

My research seeks to understand the behaviour of workers and firms and how their decisions affect labour market outcomes. My PhD dissertation consists of three separate Chapters that use detailed historical, census and administrative data to gain insights into the mechanisms at play when incentives for production and location decisions change. Chapter 1 asks whether financial incentives can induce inventors to innovate more. I exploit a large reduction in the patent fee in the United Kingdom in 1884 to distinguish between its effect on increased efforts to invent, and a decrease in patent quality due to a lower quality threshold. For this analysis I create a detailed new dataset of 54,000 British inventors with renewal information for each patent. In the longer run high-quality patenting increases by over 100 percent, and the share of new patents due to greater effort accounts for three quarters of the pre-reform share of high-quality patents. To test for the presence of credit constraints I generate two wealth proxies from inventor names and addresses, and find a larger innovation response for inventors with lower wealth. These results indicate efficiency gains from decreasing the cost of inventing and in addition, from relaxing credit constraints. In Chapter 2 we assess the effects of changes in ethnic neighbourhood composition in England and Wales. A change in social housing allocations in the 1990s serves as instrument for changes in the local ethnic composition. For the analysis we create a dataset of highly disaggregated census geographies for 1991-2011. The results imply that an exogenous increase in social housing minority share by 10 percentage points raises the minority share in private housing by 1.2 percentage points initially. This sorting effect is larger for privately rented than for privately owned housing. We further show that an increase in the minority share leads to higher local population growth and a small decrease in house prices in the longer run. Chapter 3 proposes a new approach for analysing responses to comprehensive labour market reforms. Using detailed micro data we evaluate the German Hartz reforms that aimed at reducing unemployment. The timing of the reforms affects the model parameters, which are estimated using matched data on 430,000 workers in 340,000 firms. Contrary to previous findings, our analysis shows that the reforms marginally reduced unemployment at the cost of a pronounced decline in wages. Low-skilled workers suffered the largest wage losses. Furthermore, we decompose the contribution of each reform wave on employment and wages, and document a structural shift in the factors that govern overall wage dispersion.

Purpose of the research: The purpose is to forecast the future trend of housing prices in Stockholm County 2011-2014 based on estimated slope coefficients of selected explanatory variables 1993-2010. Thereafter, the obtained forecast will be discussed with respect to other non-quantifiable concepts within behavioral economics. Method: Multiple regression technique with a deductive and explorative approach. Empirical data: Quantitative. Conclusion: The future trend of housing prices in Stockholm County has been forecasted to be positively sloped throughout all the years 2011-2014, but in 2011, the forecast reveals that the increase of house prices will taper off. Nevertheless, behavioral economics reveals some insights about the trend on the housing market and that the house prices might include a portion of abnormal returns. / Syfte: Syftet är att förutse den framtida utvecklingen av bostadspriserna i Stockholms län 2011-2014 baserade på beräknade lutningskoefficienter av valda förklaringsvariabler 1993-2010. Därefter kommer den erhållna prognosen att diskuteras i förhållande till andra icke-kvantifierbara begrepp inom beteendeekonomi. Metod: Multipel regressionsteknik med en deduktiv och explorativ strategi. Empirisk data: Kvantitativ. Slutsats: Den framtida utvecklingen av bostadspriserna i Stockholms län har beräknats ha en positiv lutning inom samtliga år 2011-2014, men under 2011 visar också prognosen att ökningen av huspriserna kommer att avta successivt. Icke desto mindre avslöjar beteendeekonomi vissa insikter om utvecklingen på bostadsmarknaden och att huspriserna kan innehålla en andel abnorm avkastning.

The Swedish housing market has been subject to extensive attention in the media recently, and the existence of a housing bubble has been questioned. The purpose of this thesis is to analyse the Swedish housing market to investigate if there are reasons to believe that the market is overvalued. The current situation in the housing market will be compared to the United States market prior to the crash of 2007. The models that are used in the paper is the house price-to-income, price-to-rent and imputed rent-to-rent. Other fundamental factors such as rent control, household debt, interest rates, and other policies effecting the housing market will be discussed. The main findings indicate that the Swedish housing market in 2010 is overvalued, however one has to consider that there are limitations to these models such as the extra benefits of owning a house compared to renting.

The Swedish housing market has been subject to extensive attention in the media recently, and the existence of a housing bubble has been questioned. The purpose of this thesis is to analyse the Swedish housing market to investigate if there are reasons to believe that the market is overvalued. The current situation in the housing market will be compared to the United States market prior to the crash of 2007. The models that are used in the paper is the house price-to-income, price-to-rent and imputed rent-to-rent. Other fundamental factors such as rent control, household debt, interest rates, and other policies effecting the housing market will be discussed. The main findings indicate that the Swedish housing market in 2010 is overvalued, however one has to consider that there are limitations to these models such as the extra benefits of owning a house compared to renting.

Uppsatsens titel: Penningmängd och huspriser - Finns det något samband? Ämne: Företagsekonomi, Kandidatuppsats, 15 hp Inlämningsdatum: 2009 – 05 – 29 Författare: Gunnar Levin, Viktor Sundling Handledare: Sven-Ola Carlsson Nyckelord: Penningmängd, Huspriser, Kointegration, M3, Fastigheter, FASTPI, Kvantitetsteorin Syfte: Syftet med uppsatsen är att genom statistiska tester beskriva sambandet mellan penningmängdens utveckling och småhusfastigheters prisutveckling. Vi vill även försöka förklara ett eventuellt samband med kvantitetsteorin. Tillvägagångssätt: I denna uppsats har vi genom att fastställa ett kointegrationssamband mellan tidsserievariabler kunnat genomföra en regressionsanalys mellan penningmängdsutvecklingen och prisutvecklingen för småhus avsedda för permanent boende. Slutsatser: Vi har funnit ett långsiktigt samband mellan utvecklingen i penningmängden uttryckt som M3 och prisutvecklingen för småhus avsedda för permanent boende. Sambandet mellan M3 och fastighetsprisindex för småhus kan förklaras med kvantitetsteorin. / Thesis title: Money supply and house prices - Is there any connection? Course: Business administration, Bachelor’s Essay, 15 credits Date of handing: 2009 – 05 – 29 Authors: Gunnar Levin, Viktor Sundling Advisor: Sven-Ola Carlsson Keywords: Money supply, House prices, Cointegration, M3, Real estate, FASTPI, Quantity Theory of Money Purpose of study: The purpose of this study is through statistical tests describe the relation between development in money supply and development in owner-occupied one- or two-dwelling buildings. We also want to describe a possible relation between the variables with the quantity theory. Method: In this essay, we have been able to perform a regression analysis between money supply and owner-occupied one- or two-dwelling buildings, by establishing cointegration between time variables. Conclusion: We have discovered a long term relation between the development in money supply defined as M3 and the development in prices for owner-occupied one- or two-dwelling buildings. The relation between M3 and real estate index can be explained with the quantity theory of money.

This thesis consists of four self-contained essays. Essay 1 (with Olof Åslund and Matz Dahlberg): In this essay we investigate the impact of commuter train access on individual labor market outcomes. Our study considers the exogenous introduction of a commuter train linking locations in the northern part of Uppsala County (Sweden) to the regional employment center, considerably decreasing commuting times by public transit to the center for those living close to the pre-existing railroad. Using difference-in-differences matching techniques on comprehensive individual panel data spanning over a decade, our intention-to-treat estimates show that the reform had mainly no impact on the earnings and employment development among the affected individuals. Essay 2: In this essay I look into the role of public transit for residential sorting by studying how the introduction of a commuter train linking locations in the northern part of Uppsala County (Sweden) to the regional employment center affected migration patterns in the areas served. Using a difference-in-difference(-in-difference) approach and comprehensive individual level data, I find that the commuter train had a positive effect on overall in-migration to the areas served and no effect on the average out-migration rate from these areas. With regards to sorting based on labor market status, I find no evidence of sorting based on employment status but some evidence that the train introduction increased the probability of moving out of the areas served for individuals with high labor incomes relative to the probability for individuals with lower income. Considering sorting along other lines than labor market status, the analysis suggests that people born in non-western countries came to be particularly attracted towards the areas served by the commuter train as compared to other similar areas. Essay 3: In this essay I look into the relation between housing mix and social mix in metropolitan Stockholm (Sweden) over the period 1990-2008. Using entropy measures, I find that although the distribution of tenure types over metropolitan Stockholm became somewhat more even over the studied period, people living in different tenure types still to a large extent tended to live in different parts of the city in 2008. The degree of residential segregation was much lower between different population groups. I further find that the mix of family types, and over time also of birth region groups and income groups, was rather different between different tenure types in the same municipality. The mix of different groups however tended to be similar within different tenure types in the same neighborhood. While the entropy measures provide a purely descriptive picture, the findings thus suggest that tenure type mix could be more useful for creating social mix at the municipal level than for creating social mix at the neighborhood level. Essay 4 (with Matz Dahlberg): The last decade’s immigration to western European countries has resulted in a culturally and religiously more diverse population in these countries. This diversification manifests itself in several ways, where one is through new features in the cityscape. Using a quasi-experimental approach, essay 4 examines how one such new feature, public calls to prayer, affects neighborhood dynamics (house prices and migration). The quasi-experiment is based on an unexpected political process that lead way to the first public call to prayer from a mosque in Sweden combined with rich (daily) information on housing sales. While our results indicate that the public calls to prayer increased house prices closer to the mosque, we find no evidence that the public calls to prayer served as a driver of residential segregation between natives and people born abroad around the mosque in question (no significant effects on migration behavior). Our findings are consistent with a story where some people have a willingness to pay for the possibility to more fully exert their religion which puts an upward pressure on housing in the vicinity of a mosque with public calls to prayer.

This paper evaluates the monetary and macroprudential policies that mitigate the procyclicality arising from the interlinkages between current account deficits and financial vulnerabilities. We develop a two-country dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model with heterogeneous households and collateralised debt. The model predicts that external shocks are important in driving current account deficits that are coupled with run-ups in house prices and household debt. In this context, optimal policy features an interest-rate response to credit and a LTV ratio that countercyclically responds to house price dynamics. By allowing an interest-rate response to changes in financial variables, the monetary policy authority improves social welfare, because of the large welfare gains accrued to the savers. The additional use of a countercyclical LTV ratio that responds to house prices, increases the ability of borrowers to smooth consumption over the cycle and is Pareto improving. Domestic and foreign shocks account for a similar fraction of the welfare gains delivered by such a policy. (authors' abstract) / Series: Department of Economics Working Paper Series