Le ruissellement pluvial est à l’origine de phénomènes violents tels que des inondations, de l’érosion ou des coulées de boue. Les voies ferrées interceptent les écoulements de surface, ce qui peut engendrer une dégradation précoce de l’infrastructure ou la destruction d’éléments, tels que la plateforme ou les talus. La méthode IRIP, « Indicateur de Ruissellement Intense Pluviale », permet de représenter le ruissellement en trois cartes, la production, le transfert et l’accumulation. La méthode IRIP se veut simple et robuste, pour un usage sur tous types de territoires et sans calage. Comme tout modèle de ruissellement, l’évaluation de la méthode IRIP se heurte au manque de données. Pourtant, l’évaluation est une étape cruciale dans le développement de modèles. Pour un usage opérationnel ou pour poursuivre les développements, il est nécessaire d’estimer la valeur et la fiabilité des informations produites. L’objectif de la thèse est donc de proposer une méthode d’évaluation de la méthode IRIP par comparaison à des données d’impacts sur les voies ferrées. La difficulté réside dans la différence de fond et de forme des données à comparer et dans la nécessité de prendre en compte la vulnérabilité de l’infrastructure. La méthode d’évaluation proposée est basée sur le calcul de tableaux de contingence et d’indicateurs de performance, couplé à des analyses détaillées d’incidents. Après une estimation de la performance de la méthode IRIP, des développements sont testés et évalués grâce à la méthode d’évaluation élaborée. La lisibilité des cartes est finalement améliorée, tout en gardant de bons scores de performance. En appliquant la méthode IRIP à des contextes opérationnels, il est montré en quoi IRIP peut être considéré comme un outil d’aide à l’expertise. Différentes tâches du processus de gestion des risques sont testées, telles que les diagnostics de risques sur les voies ferrées, les retours d’expérience post-évènement ou encore la réalisation de zonage règlementaire. De manière générale, cette thèse contribue à l’amélioration des connaissances sur le phénomène du ruissellement et propose des méthodes pour améliorer la gestion des risques liés au ruissellement. / Surface runoff is the source of severe hazards such as floods, erosion or mudflows. Railways can disturb natural surface water flow path, which can generate accelerated deterioration of the infrastructure, or the destruction of railway elements, such as the roadbed or the embankments. The IRIP method ‘Indicator of Intense Pluvial Runoff’ (French acronym) allows mapping surface runoff through three maps, generation, transfer and accumulation. The IRIP method aims to be simple and reliable, in order to be used on all types of lands, without calibration stage. As for others surface runoff models, the IRIP method evaluation faces the lack of data. However, evaluation is a crucial stage for the development of models. In the perspective of an operational use, or simply for the model development, it is essential to estimate the value and the reliability of the model outputs. The thesis objective is to provide an evaluation method using surface runoff impacts on railways. Difficulties lie in the fact that data to be compared differ in terms of form and content. Moreover, the infrastructure vulnerability must be characterized. The proposed evaluation method is based on the computation of contingency tables and of verification indicators, together with detailed analysis of specific impacts. After an estimation of the IRIP method performance, further developments can be tested and evaluated thanks to the proposed evaluation method. Finally, maps comprehensibility is enhanced, while preserving satisfying performance scores. By applying the IRIP method to operational contexts, it has been shown how the IRIP method can be used as a tool in expert appraisals. Different tasks of the risk management process have been studied such as risk analysis on railways, post-event investigation or the realisation of regulatory zonings. More generally, this thesis contributes to improve knowledge about surface runoff and provide methods for improving the risk management.

Les méga événements peuvent jouer un rôle important dans le développement régional et la compétitivité des pays/villes d'accueil. Cet avantage est une fonction de l'effet de levier des investissements dans les infrastructures, le tourisme, et dans le développement du bien-être des habitants. Toutefois, les méga événements ont aussi des désavantages potentiels. Afin de vérifier le rapport coût-bénéfice des méga événements, la plupart des chercheurs mesurent les résultats et les impacts socio-économiques tangibles de ces projets. Néanmoins, des études plus récentes indiquent que les impacts immatériels constituent potentiellement les principaux bénéfices économiques des méga événements. Les capitaux immatériels sont devenus des facteurs stratégiques pour la création de valeur future et sont désormais considérés comme les facteurs clés de la croissance économique et de la compétitivité. Cependant, l'existence de méthodes opérationnelles fiables pour évaluer les aspects immatériels de méga événements est encore rare. Ainsi, l'objectif de la recherche est de développer un modèle pour mesurer et évaluer la performance des impacts des projets de méga événements, en tenant compte des actifs immatériels. À cette fin, nous avons appliqué le paradigme de recherche connu sous le nom de design science research (DSR). Le DSR est basé sur le fait de créer une solution pratique, le plus souvent un artefact, pour résoudre les problèmes pertinents et complexes, en tenant compte du contexte dans lequel ses résultats seront appliqués, dans un processus de recherche qui puise dans les théories existantes pour arriver à une solution. De manière à prévenir l'absence d'un contexte réel, et d´un objectif bien défini pour analyser les impacts, le modèle a été développé en se focalisant sur les interventions de la Coupe du Monde de la FIFA 2014 dans l'industrie du tourisme et au sein dela région de la ville du Rio de Janeiro. Sur la base des approches de mesure du capital immatériel disponibles, nous avons développé un cadre théorique et un modèle opérationnel pour rassembler les facteurs de succès immatériels pertinents. Un modèle a été développé, appelé le modèle des impacts immatériels de méga événements (ME-I2). Il est composé de cinq dimensions du capital immatériel, chacune incorporant un groupe d'actifs, 15 dans l’ensemble, et 42 indicateurs pour mesurer la performance des interventions du projet dans le développement de ces actifs. L'application du modèle permet trois résultats. La détermination du degré d'importance (valeur relative) de chaque dimension du capital immatériel, l’ évaluation des performance des interventions du projet, d'une manière générale et en ce qui concerne chaque dimension du capital immatériel, et la détermination de la valeur dynamique du capital immatériel. Le modèle a été testé dans une étude de cas et a démontré son adéquation et pertinence. Il émerge comme un outil potentiel pour fournir des informations pour la gestion et la prise de décision stratégique en vue du développement de la valeur pour les le pays/villes d'accueil. Il traduit par ailleurs les perceptions et les attentes des parties prenantes et pourrait être une source précieuse d'informations en ce qui concerne les facteurs de succès immatériels qui pourraient améliorer la performance des méga événements et soutenir la compétitivité et le développement régional. / According some evidences, mega events can play a significant role in local development and competitiveness. This benefit is generally due to the catalyst effect of a series of factors related to infrastructure, tourism and local population welfare/quality of life. However, mega events also have potential downsides. In order to assess the cost-benefit of hosting them, we usually measure its socio-economic outcomes and impacts. Nevertheless, recent studies indicate positive intangible impacts as potentially important benefits. The intangible assets have become strategic factors for value creation, and are considered central factors to economies’ growth and competitiveness. However, the existence of reliable operational methods to assess and evaluate the mega events intangible aspects is still unclear. Thus, the present study objective is to develop a performance model for measure and evaluate the mega event projects impacts, taking into account the intangible assets. To perform it, we applied the design science research (DSR) paradigm. The DSR is based on the act of creating an applicable solution, typically an artifact, to solve a relevant complex problem that taking into consideration the context in which their results will be applied, in a search process that draws from existing theories to come up with a solution. To prevent the lack of a real-life event context and a well-defined objective to the impact analysis we developed the model focusing on the 2014 FIFA World Cup interventions in the Tourism industry at the Rio de Janeiro region. Based on the traditional intangible measurement theory, we developed a theoretical framework and an operational model to gather the relevant intangible success factors. We named it the Mega Event Intangibles Impacts (ME-I2) Model. It consists of five dimensions of the intangible capital, each one incorporating a group of assets, 15 as a whole, and 42 indicators to measure the performance of the interventions in developing such assets. The ME-I2 model returns three different outcomes. The degree of importance (relative value) for each dimension of intangible capital, performance ratings for the mega event interventions in an overall fashion and concerning each capital dimension, and the dynamic value of the intangible capital. We tested the ME-I2 model in a pilot-study and the model showed its adequacy and appropriateness, seeming to us an interesting tool to provide information for effective strategic management and decision-making focused on contribute to translate more effectively the intangible impacts into tangible improved value creation (legacies) for the host city/country. It maps the perceptions and expectations of the mega event stakeholders and could be a valuable font of information in regard of some intangible success factors that could improve the mega event performance.

At present, an important task for Chinese governments at all levels is to save energy and reduce pollutant emissions. The task of buildings energy efficiency accounts for 21% in the 12th Five Year Plan which from 2011 to 2015. With the development of social economy，the energy shortage is serious day by day．The energy-conservation of buildings is a high relevant issue in China．There are a large capacity and a wide range of existing buildings in Qingdao among which the overwhelming majority is the non-energy-efficient buildings and the operate energy consumption are enormous．At Present, according to the related statistic，the energy efficient building area only accounts for 3% to 5% of the total building area newly increased in our country every year, while in such existing buildings in Qingdao ，most of them are highly energy-consuming, the energy consumption in buildings is about 100-350 kWh for each floor area of the whole year，which is 2 to 3 times of the energy consumption of the same area of energy efficient buildings．So we can say that whether could we promote the effective use of resources and energy in buildings is very important，which will finally determine whether could we and take the road to sustainable development． In respect of the application of the complicated systematic scientific conclusions，the thesis carries out the analysis of geographic and climate characteristics in Qingdao area and the research of current energy consumption． Based on the quantitative model analysis of environmental and economic benefits of implementation of energy efficient buildings in Qingdao in scenario k, promotion and implementation of energy efficient buildings can substantially reduce the current high environmental cost associated with energy consumption for heating and cooling in buildings in Qingdao. Emission including carbon dioxides, sulfur oxide, nitrogen oxides and ash can be reduced, it means that under the scenario k energy efficient buildings has an idea performance on reducing pollutant gas. At the same time, companied by the great environmental benefits, there are also substantial economic benefits. Barriers to energy efficiency in buildings in Qingdao, including political, economic, social and technological barriers are discussed in this thesis. According to the investigation and analysis about the present situation and factors affecting the implementation of energy efficient buildings in Qingdao, this thesis put forward recommendations from the aspects of environment, politics, economy, society and technology to improving energy efficient buildings in Qingdao.

A common concern about volcanic unrest is that the communication of information about increasing volcanic alert levels (VALs) to the public could cause serious social and economic impacts even if an eruption does not occur. To test this statement, this study examined housing prices and business patterns from 1974–2016 in volcanic regions with “very-high” threat designations from the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS)—Long Valley Caldera (LVC), CA (caldera); Mount St. Helens (MSH), Washington (stratovolcano); and Kīlauea, Hawaiʻi (shield volcano). To compare economic trends in nonvolcanic regions that are economically dependent on tourism, Steamboat Springs, CO, served as a control as it is a ski-tourism community much like Mammoth Lakes in LVC. Autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) models predicted that housing prices were negatively affected by VALs at LVC from 1982–1983 and 1991–1997. While VALs associated with unrest and eruptions included in this study both had short-term indirect effects on housing prices and business indicators (e.g., number of establishments, employment, and salary), these notifications were not strong predictors of long-term economic trends. Our findings suggest that these indirect effects result from both eruptions with higher level VALs and from unrest involving lower-level VAL notifications that communicate a change in volcanic activity but do not indicate that an eruption is imminent or underway. This provides evidence concerning a systemic issue in disaster resilience. While disaster relief is provided by the U.S. federal government for direct impacts associated with disaster events that result in presidential major disaster declarations, there is limited or no assistance for indirect effects to businesses and homeowners that may follow volcanic unrest with no resulting direct physical losses. The fact that periods of volcanic unrest preceding eruption are often protracted in comparison to precursory periods for other hazardous events (e.g., earthquakes, hurricanes, flooding) makes the issue of indirect effects particularly important in regions susceptible to volcanic activity.

Au cours de ces dernières années les processeurs sont devenus de plus en plus complexes (plusieurs niveaux de cache, vectorisation,...), l’augmentation de la complexité fait que l’étude des performances et les optimisations sont eux aussi devenus de plus en plus complexes et difficiles à comprendre. Donc développer un outil de caractérisation simple et facile d’utilisation des performances d’applications, serait de grande valeur. Le Modèle Roofline [17] promet un début de réponse à ces critères, mais reste insuffisant pour une caractérisation robuste et détaillée. Dans la première partie de cette thèse, Nous allons développer plusieurs versions améliorées du Roofline, robustes et précises, en passant par une version du Roofline en fonction du temps, des blocs et enfin la nouvelle version du Roofline introduite dans la suite de caractérisation Vtune d’Intel. Pour valider ces modèles, nous utilisons le benchmark LINPACK, STREAM ainsi qu’une mini-application développée au cours de cette thèse, qui résout l’équation de l’advection et qui servira de prototype pour l’évaluation de codes hydrodynamiques explicites. Nous portons aussi cette mini-application sur les co-processeurs d’Intel Xeon Phi KNL et KNC. Dans la deuxième partie de cette thèse nous nous intéressons à la simulation d’impact de vagues, à l’aide de codes industriels compressibles et incompressibles. Nous rajoutons plusieurs fonctionnalités dans le code compressible FluxIC, nous effectuons un chaînage de codes incompressible et compressible et enfin nous introduisons un nouveau schéma numérique appelé liquide incompressible et gaz quasi-compressible, qui permet de réaliser une simulation d’impact d’une vague via un code incompressible avec une correction compressible dans les zones où la compressibilité du gaz est importante. / During recent years computer processors have become increasingly complex (multiple levels of cache, vectorization, etc), meaning that the study of performance and optimization is also becoming more complex and difficult to understand. So a simple and easy-to-use model aimed at studying the performance of applications would be of great value. The Roofline model [17] promises to meet this criteria, but it is insufficient for robust and detailed characterization.In the first part of this thesis, several improved versions of the Roofline model, that are more robust and accurate, are developed by going through theRoofline version as a function of time and block, and finally a new Rooflinemodel is implemented in the Intel Vtune characterization suite. To validate thenew models, the LINPACK andtextitSTREAM benchmarks are used, as wellas, a mini-application developed during this thesis that solves the advectionequation and serves as a prototype for the evaluation of explicit hydrodynamicsimulation codes. This mini-application is also ported to the new Intel XeonPhi KNL and KNC co-processors.Simulation of wave impact using compressible and incompressible industrialcodes is the focus of the second part of this thesis. Several functionalities are added to the compressible FluxIC code, and a chaining of compressible andincompressible codes is carried out. Finally, a new numerical scheme called"incompressible liquid and quasi-compressible gas" is introduced, which allowsthe simulation of wave impact using an incompressible code with a compressiblecorrection in areas where gas compressibility is significant.

A finite element model was developed for a range of human head-sUAS impacts to provide multiple case scenarios of impact severity at two response regions of interest: global and local. The hypothesis was that for certain impact scenarios, local response injuries of the brain (frontal, parietal, occipital, temporal lobes, and cerebellum) have a higher severity level compared to global response injury, the response at the Center of Gravity (CG) of the head. This study is the first one to predict and quantify the influence of impact parameters such as impact velocity, location, offset, and angle of impact to severity of injury. The findings show that an sUAS has the potential of causing minimal harm under certain impact scenarios, while other scenarios cause fatal injuries. Additionally, results indicate that the human head’s global response as a less viable response region of interest when measuring injury severity for clinical diagnosis. It is hoped that the results from this research can be useful to assist decision making for treatments and may offer different perspectives in sUAS designs or operation environments.

One of the most visible impacts of climate change in Arctic environments is declining sea ice. Due to an absence of spatially coarse quantitative data, there is a lack of understanding on declining sea ice on a community scale. This study seeks to document historical trends in air temperature, sea ice thickness (SIT), break-up dates (BUDs) and freeze-up dates (FUDs), correlate sea ice behaviour to air temperatures, and document the socio-economic impacts of sea ice change in Resolute Bay Nunavut, using traditional Inuit knowledge (TIK) and scientific methods. During the scientific portion of this study linear regression, statistical significance, anomaly analysis, and change point detection were used on time series of sea ice concentration (SIC), SIT, and air temperature. Two SIC datasets were accessed to characterize BUDs and FUDs, Canadian Ice Services archived sea ice charts from 1982-2022 and Copernicus Climate Change Services (C3S) gridded satellite derived SIC from 1979-2015. The BUD was defined when SIC fell and stayed below 20%, and the FUD was when SIC returned and stayed above 50%. By applying a statistically significant linear regression to both datasets, the BUD was shown to occur 37.5 days earlier and the FUD occurred 23.4 days later in 2022 than in 1979. This study accessed two SIT datasets, Environment and Climate Change Canada fast ice measurements from 1947-2022 and C3S satellite derived sea ice freeboard measurements from 2002-2020 at four locations in the Barrow Strait. After applying change point detection algorithms, this study found annual maximum fast ice thicknesses increased 32.5 cm from 1948-1981 and decreased 33.2 cm from 1981-2021. Fast ice decreased most substantially in the months of April and May. Sea ice freeboard decreased by 260.8 cm on average from 2002-2020 in the Barrow Strait. Freezing degree days (FDDs) were used to correlate sea ice behaviour to air temperature. As FDDs decrease, sea ice freeboard was the most rapidly changing sea ice parameter and fast ice thickness was most strongly correlated to FDDs. Both these results indicate that air temperature has a greater effect on SIT than the BUD and FUD. During the TIK investigation of this study, seventeen community members from Resolute Bay, Nunavut, ranging from age 19-81 were interviewed about their perception of changes in SIT, BUD, FUD, and seasonal weather patterns. Participants were interviewed about the socio-economic impacts of sea ice change, traditional Inuit methods of determining thickness, and asked to indicate typical areas of thin and thick ice, areas that break-up and freeze-up first, and hunting and travel routes on printed maps. The interviewees described a decline in sea ice thickness, areas of thin ice in the Barrow Strait, north of Cornwallis Island, and between Bathurst and Devon Island, less frequent use of the sea ice, less traditional food available in the community, increased vessel traffic, a decrease in seal population, new species and birds in the area, and detailed traditional methods of determining ice thickness through observation of color and use of the harpoon. Agreement between traditional knowledge and the scientific data was present in typical break-up and freeze-up patterns, and annual maximum thickness decreasing over time. While most respondents indicated FUD was later and BUD earlier, more participants responded there have been changes to the FUD than the BUD, whereas the scientific data showed more severe changes to the BUD than FUD. During interviews, there was consensus that summer temperatures are getting warmer but there was variability in responses when asked about winter temperatures. The scientific results showed less warming in the summer (Jun-Aug) than winter months (Jan-Mar) with the most warming in the fall (Sept-Nov). The lack of agreement between these results could be attributed to local perceived changes to winter weather referring to storminess rather than strictly temperature. TIK provided small scale information about the sea ice that the current state of scientific observation can not. In conclusion, a more holistic understanding of sea ice behaviour can be achieved by including Inuit traditional knowledge in partnership with scientific methods.

Les services basés sur les technologies de l’information dans les secteurs publics et privés sont en pleine croissance. Par conséquent, la demande énergétique est de plus en plus importante pour alimenter les équipements informatiques au sein des établissements utilisateurs et dans les data-centres. A cette phase de consommation, facilement identifiable par les utilisateurs, s’ajoute la phase de production des équipements dont les conséquences sur l’environnement sont difficilement perceptibles par les utilisateurs. Ainsi, les impacts environnementaux des TIC paraissent principalement « délocalisés » et « invisibles » par rapport à l’utilisateur final.Progressivement, l’enjeu environnemental prend sa place dans la logique du secteur des technologies de l’information, aboutissant au concept de « Green IT ». Concepteurs et utilisateurs cherchent désormais à évaluer les impacts environnementaux des technologies de l’information. Dans un contexte d’évaluation environnementale pour l’aide à la décision, l’objectif de cette thèse est d’évaluer les impacts environnementaux des équipements informatiques d’une organisation. Pour cela, nous envisageons une démarche qui vise à enrichir l’approche produit de type ACV par l’ajout de données spécifiques à l’organisation étudiée.Les recherches bibliographiques ont permis de dégager les spécificités et les besoins méthodologiques en termes d’évaluation des impacts. Ainsi, une méthodologie permettant l’expression des impacts environnementaux locaux et planétaires liés à la fabrication et à l’utilisation des technologies de l’information au sein d’une organisation est proposée. Appliquée lors d’un partenariat avec une entreprise multinationale de la grande distribution et validée par son application dans un centre de recherche, cette méthodologie centralise à la fois des données génériques disponibles dans des bases de données et des données spécifiques recueillies auprès des utilisateurs de l’organisation étudiée. Cette étape de terrain, point central de la méthodologie, permet dans un premier temps d’obtenir l’inventaire des équipements présents et dans un second temps de connaître et de comprendre le comportement réel des utilisateurs via une enquête et des mesures de puissances et de consommations électriques des équipements représentatifs du panel inventorié (utilisation de boitiers d’acquisition de valeurs dits « économètre »).L’approche d’évaluation environnementale des systèmes informatiques développée au cours de ce travail a pour objectif de mettre en exergue les répercussions sur l’environnement que peuvent avoir les technologies de l’information au sein d’une organisation. Un des résultats principaux montre que la majorité des impacts environnementaux sont plus liés à la phase de production qu’à la phase d’utilisation. De plus, cette méthode aide à l’identification des pistes d’améliorations : choix et gestion des équipements, comportement individuel, charte d’utilisation, choix d’une politique éco-responsable… Ainsi, par un calcul d’éco-efficience mettant en jeu les gains environnementaux et économiques, les solutions répondant à la stratégie de développement de l’organisation étudiée peuvent être sélectionnées. / Services based on information technology in public and private sectors are growing. Therefore, the energy demand is more and more important to supply computer equipments within organizations and data-centers. So, environmental impacts of ICT are mostly “delocalised" and "invisible" from the end user.Gradually, the environmental issue takes place in the sector of information technology resulting in the new concept of the "Green IT". Nowadays, designers and users are seeking to assess the environmental impacts of information technology. In a context of environmental assessment for decision-making, the objective of this thesis is to assess the environmental impacts of devices of an organization. For this, we consider an approach to combine a product LCA approach with an inventory of data specific to a site.Literature searches have highlighted the specific and methodological needs in terms of impact assessment. Thus, a methodology for the expression of local and global environmental impacts associated with the production and use stages of information technology present within an organization is proposed. Applied in a partnership with a multinational society and validated by its application in a research laboratory, this methodology centralizes both generic data available in databases and specific data collected from users of the organization studied. This phase, key point of the methodology, provides firstly an inventory of present equipments and secondly the knowledge and comprehension of the actual behavior of users by the way of both a survey plus power and electric consumption measurements of representative equipments of the panel inventoried (use of acquisition boxes of values known as "energy meter").The environmental assessment approach developed in this work aims to highlight the environmental impact of the information technology’s equipments within an organization. One of the main results shows that the most environmental impacts are due to the production phase than the use phase. Moreover, the method helps to identify areas for improvement: selection and equipment management, individual behavior, usage policy, choice of an eco-friendly policy... So, by a calculation of eco-efficiency involving environmental and economic gains, solutions responding to the development strategy of the organization studied can be selected.

Submitted by Silvana Teresinha Dornelles Studzinski (sstudzinski) on 2016-08-24T13:05:59Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Jaime do Espírito Santo Vieira Júnior_.pdf: 1262907 bytes, checksum: 5b0e860885baf3f15b288d7feea6cf29 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2016-08-24T13:05:59Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Jaime do Espírito Santo Vieira Júnior_.pdf: 1262907 bytes, checksum: 5b0e860885baf3f15b288d7feea6cf29 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2014-06-29 / IFTO - Instituto Federal de Educação, Ciência e Tecnologia do Tocantins / A agropecuária do Tocantins vem sofrendo significativas transformações. Essas transformações estão ligadas às políticas federal e estadual de apoio à fronteira agrícola (MATOPIBA), ao aquecido mercado de exportação de commodities (grãos/carne), a programas de financiamentos agrícolas públicos e privados, à ocupação de terras em pastagens por atividades agrícolas e à migração. Em geral, os impactos destes incentivos que geram transformações econômicas não recebem a mesma importância dos seus idealizadores. Dessa forma, o objetivo deste trabalho é avaliar as implicações da redução da atividade pecuária e aumento da atividade graneleira no estado do Tocantins, nos últimos 15 anos. Para alcançar os objetivos, foi realizada uma descrição conjuntural dos programas e intervenções estatais para promoção da agropecuária no Tocantins, onde se analisou a dinâmica e os efeitos econômicos causados. A importância desse estudo está no entendimento dos efeitos da redução da tradicional pecuária extensiva conjuntamente com o aumento da moderna agricultura tecnificada. Esse estudo viabiliza um melhor planejamento do futuro do Agronegócio tocantinense, apontando tendências que podem gerar efeitos inesperados. Nessa investigação foram usados dados secundários governamentais e não governamentais, entrevistas semiestruturadas e visitas a duas propriedades rurais. Nesse sentido, verificou-se que o projeto de Campos Lindos (berço do MATOPIBA-TO), apesar da truculência na implantação e dos impactos gerados, foi o que colocou o Estado no patamar de maior produtor de soja da região Norte do Brasil, sendo esse incremento, junto com os preços baixos das terras tocantinenses os motivadores do processo migratório de produtores e empresas de originação de grãos para áreas tradicionais de pecuária nas regiões Centrais e a Oeste do Estado. A partir do ano 2000 verificou-se uma intensa modernização agrícola no Tocantins, principalmente no município de Porto Nacional. Nesse período, os dados econômicos do Tocantins sofreram alterações positivas, uma vez que houve significativos aumentos do PIB, PIB per capita, renda e IDHM conforme os dados levantados. / Farming of Tocantins has suffered significant transformations. These changes are linked to federal and state policies to support agricultural frontier (MATOPIBA), to the popular market of commodities export (grains/meat), to public and private agricultural financial programs, to occupation of land in pasture for agricultural activities and migration. In general, the economic impacts of these incentives that generates economic transformations don’t receive the same importance of its creators. Thus, the objective of this study is to evaluate the implications of reducing livestock activity and increased graneleira activity in the state of Tocantins, the last 15 years. To achieve the objectives, a cyclical description of the programs was realized and State interventions to promote agribusiness in Tocantins, where farming dynamics and socioeconomic effects caused were analyzed. The importance of this study is in the understanding of the effects of changes in traditional extensive livestock modifications for the technical modern farming. This study enables a better future planning of Tocantins Agribusiness, mitigating unexpected effects. Governmental and non-governmental secondary data were used for this investigation, semi-structured interviews and visits into rural properties. In this sense, it was established that the Campos Lindos project (Cradle of MATOPIBA-TO), despite the implementation truculence and the economic impacts generated, that put the State in a high level as the biggest soybean producer of the northern region, being this increase, the motivator of the migration process of producers and grain origination companies to traditional areas of livestock in the Central regions and at West of the State. From 2000, a real agricultural modernization occurred in Tocantins, mainly in the municipality of Porto Nacional. During this period, the socioeconomic data of Tocantins suffered positive changes, once there were significant increases of the GDP, GDP per capita, income and HDI, according to the data collected.

Research indicates children's exposure to family violence results in long-term negative consequences, hindering social skill development and impacting on the ability to function as healthy, productive adults. Also, there exists a widely accepted theory, called the 'cycle of violence', which hypothesises that children who have experienced violence at the hands of their parents tend to grow up to become violent parents themselves. Some evidence for this theory has been found following research with groups of abusive parents and people who have committed crimes, This study explores the specific impacts of childhood exposure to family violence on the subsequent mothering of a group of women drawn from the general population. A qualitative approach using a methodology that combined feminist and narrative approaches was used. Nine women who have been exposed to family violence in childhood including physical, emotional/psychological, sexual abuse and witness to violence between parents participated in interviews which explored their experiences of mothering Each woman was interviewed twice to collect stories of childhood and of mothering experiences. These were analysed revealing that the women's mothering was affected by their childhood exposure to family violence in several ways, ranging from direct emotional impacts to indirect impacts of conceptualisations formed in the light of childhood experiences. This study adds to the existing knowledge of the long-term impacts of childhood exposure to family violence by focussing specifically on subsequent mothering. The findings encourage social work and health care personnel to appreciate that women exposed to family violence in childhood have specific issues with their mothering and there is a need to address these issues. It also challenges the weight given to the cycle of violence theory in intervention and prevention strategies in child abuse and family violence sectors