Thesis (Ph. D.)--University of California, San Diego, 2004. / Vita. Includes bibliographical references (leaves 229-243).

This thesis addresses the omission in the literature of how political context influences the performance of informational shortcuts. In line with this research gap, the first article suggests that parliamentarian and party-oriented systems encourage the performance of ideology, party identification and leadership, as their use increases the probability to participate in elections, while the effective number of parties has no impact. The second article focus on Spain and two contextual shortcuts - incumbency and electoral polls-. The findings indicate that peripheral voters has the highest propensity to vote for left wing parties when the polls show that the left party is going to win the elections and it is the challenger in salient elections or the incumbent in a nonsalient election. The third article analyses the Spanish case and the impact of leader evaluations and ideology on vote choice over time. The findings manifest that while ideology becomes more important, the utility of leader evaluation is reduced once the informational context becomes more fruitful and stable. / Esta tesis aborda la omisión en la literatura de cómo el contexto político influye en el funcionamiento de los atajos informativos. En línea con esta limitación en la literatura, el primer artículo examina qué instituciones promueven un mejor funcionamiento de la ideología, la identificación partidista y el liderazgo, midiendo los efectos de su uso en la probabilidad de participar en las elecciones. La evidencia muestra como los sistemas parlamentarios y los sistemas orientados a partidos promueven un mejor funcionamiento de los tres atajos, mientras que el número efectivo de partidos no tiene impacto. El segundo artículo se basa en España y dos atajos contextuales –estar en el gobierno y los sondeos electorales- para explorar el saber convencional de que un mayor porcentaje de voto beneficia a los partidos de izquierdas. La evidencia indica que los votantes periféricos tienen la mayor probabilidad de votar a partidos de izquierdas cuando en elecciones relevantes los sondeos muestran que el partido de izquierdas va a ganar las elecciones y está en la oposición o cuando está en el gobierno en elecciones no importantes. El tercer artículo analiza el caso español y el impacto de las evaluaciones de los líderes y la ideología en el voto a través del tiempo. Los resultados manifiestan que, si bien la ideología se vuelve más importante, la utilidad de la evaluación el líder se reduce una vez que el contexto informativo se vuelve más rico y estable.

Thesis (Ph. D.)--University of California, San Diego, 2004. / Vita. Includes bibliographical references.

Submitted by Nathan Canen (njcanen@hotmail.com) on 2013-06-24T15:19:50Z No. of bitstreams: 1 canen bibdigital.pdf: 1062902 bytes, checksum: fa161af0125b4866558e27daf2adf766 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Marcia Bacha (marcia.bacha@fgv.br) on 2013-06-27T11:38:59Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 canen bibdigital.pdf: 1062902 bytes, checksum: fa161af0125b4866558e27daf2adf766 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2013-06-27T11:39:18Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 canen bibdigital.pdf: 1062902 bytes, checksum: fa161af0125b4866558e27daf2adf766 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2013-06-05 / How do economic shocks affect the behaviour of elections in democracies? Using U.S. Congress electoral data, I test whether sudden shocks affect unequally incumbent par- ties and opponents. This is identified through, among other procedures, a regression discontinuity design. I consider possible theoretical channels for this effect, where cit- izens cannot perfectly observe whether their lack of public goods is due to an adverse shock, or due to private consumption by a politician. I find that, with observable shocks close to the election, there is no effect. Empirical evidence is consistent with the theory. / Como choques econômicos afetam eleições em democracias? Usando dados eleitorais do Congresso dos Estados Unidos, eu testo se choques adversos podem afetar desigualmente partidos incumbentes e oponentes. Esse efeito é identificado, entre vários procedimentos, por uma regressão em descontinuidade. Eu considero possibilidades teóricas para esse efeito, quando cidadãos não conseguem observar perfeitamente se a falta de bens públicos é devido a um choque adverso, ou a consumo privado do político. Quando o choque é observável, não há efeito; enquanto se não fosse, haveria. As evidências empíricas são consistentes com a teoria.

In developed democracies, incumbents are consistently found to have an electoral advantage over their challengers. The normative implications of this phenomenon depend on its sources. Despite a large existing literature, there is little consensus on what the sources are. In this three-paper dissertation, I find that both electoral institutions and the parties behind the incumbents appear to have a larger role than the literature has given them credit for, and that in the U.S. context, between 30 and 40 percent of the incumbents' advantage is driven by their "scaring off" serious opposition. / Government

The influence of corporate money in politics is one of the most studied topics in political science in the U.S., although not so much so in recent democracies. Using new and public data from Brazilian elections, this dissertation investigates the process of institutional change that culminated in a 2015 decision by the Brazilian Supreme Court to ban corporate donations as a legal source of financing to politicians and parties. The episode exemplifies the worldwide tendency of judicialization of politics and fits the pattern of change identified by the literature as a critical juncture, understood as a relatively short period of time in which there is a heightened probability that agents' choices will affect the outcome of interest. Under exceptional circumstances of political and economic crisis, actors not institutionally in charge of law making set in motion a process of legislative change whose final outcome was not a faithful reflection of their preferences, but was deeply influenced by contingent elements. Public support in a context of severe revelations of corruption schemes explain how the Supreme Court was able to rule against the immediate interest of politicians and how the latter, having adjusted to find additional sources of money, were unwilling to reinstate corporate donation as a legal means of campaign financing. Having confirmed in Chapter two that incumbency is associated in Brazil with a negative effect on the electoral performance of office holders while the use of corporate money by candidates is legal, the dissertation examines the effects of the Supreme Court decision on municipal elections held after it came into effect. We investigate whether removing this important source of funding for both incumbents and challengers swings the balance in favor of office holders in both majority and proportional elections held in 2016. We find evidence that the ban on corporate donations favored incumbent mayors, suggesting that the historic decision, instead of levelling the playing field between incumbents and challengers, in reality helped office holders to win an additional term. It was not immediately visible due to the particular conditions in which the 2016 elections took place, when voters were particularly angry at incumbents due to the widespread news of corruption involving party officials. These findings indicate that, despite its intention to make Brazilian elections more competitive and open, the historic Supreme Court decision might have had the exact opposite effect, helping perpetuate in power politicians already in office.

The object of the research is to reveal the management of a consultative health care centre in regard to the assessment of the staff working there. The main objectives are as follows: 1) to compare the differencKlaida! Nerastas sąrašas.es in the assessment in regard to the incumbency of those assessing the executive; 2) to frame the program of means to improve the management efficiency. Research methods. In one of the health care centres, a onetime anonymous opinion poll was performed in March, 2006 and staff of various incumbencies questioned, including doctors, nurses, administrative staff and many others. 18 doctors, 34 nurses, 3 people working in an administrative office and 22 employees of other incumbency were asked to fill in a questionnaire of 21 questions. The research data was processed through the program of SPSS data analysis. Results. The respondents were to score the influence that the head of the health care centre had on the results of their work. The average score was 3,6. Moderate impact of the executive person upon their work was the most common assessment: 4 points - 55% and 3 points – 27%; 1% scored their executive with lower points thus regarding them as low-powered institution whereas 8% of the respondents assessed the head of the centre as highly influential and scored them with 5 points. 18% of the doctors, 54% of the nurses and 50% of the others asserted that essential decisions regarding the functioning of the health care centre are made by the... [to full text]

The thesis deals with the personal stability of the Czech Parliament in the period after 1993 when the Czech Republic was founded. The author assumes a better orientation in both organizational and procedural issues of reelected representatives. The aim of this thesis is to explore what factors have influenced the rate of reelection of MPs and Senators and how these are subsequently reflected in the personal structure of both Chambers. Using a quantitative analysis, the author tests the hypothesis that the rate of reelection will be higher in the Senate due to the majority voting system which is more personalized than the proportional one used in the Chamber of Deputies. The hypothesis was tested in the Committees analogically. Furthermore, the author tests if the current level of voter turnout influences the final election results and the rate of reelection, respectively. The text is divided into three chapters. The thesis is composed of a common structure heading from a theoretical background towards empirical analysis.

The peruvian political system is characterized by incumbent’s low reelection rates at sub-national level, in that sense, incumbency has been qualified as a disadvantage to politicians in search of reelection. Owing to that, the existence of some cases of mayors that have managed to stay in office for multiple periods of government is surprising; Magdalena del Mar is an exam- ple of it. In this district, Francis Allison has attained reelection in three consecutive elections, obtaining high percentages of vote. For that reason, the present article seeks to explain Allison’s trajectory in the office of district mayor, through political strategies analysis used to manage continuity in office and citizens’ perceptions of themselves. The importance of attributes linked to incumbency are stressed; in that sense, Allison’s success comes from his capacity to satisfy ci- tizens’ needs (using formal and informal governance mechanisms) and from his political ability. To succeeding its aim, the investigation has recourse to data compilation about the municipality; semi-structured interviews to government employees and key actors in civil society; and stratified multistage surveys in the district. / El sistema político peruano se caracteriza por las bajas tasas de reelección del incumbente a nivel subnacional; en ese sentido, la incumbencia ha sido calificada como una desventaja para los políticos en búsqueda de la reelección. Debido a ello, sorprende que, a nivel distrital, existan algunos casos de alcaldes que han logrado mantenerse en el cargo por múltiples periodos de go- bierno. Magdalena del Mar es un ejemplo de ello. En este distrito, Francis Allison ha logrado la reelección en tres períodos consecutivos, con altos porcentajes de votación. Por eso, el presente artículo busca explicar la trayectoria de Allison en el cargo de alcalde distrital a través del análisis de las estrategias políticas empleadas para lograr la continuidad en el cargo y de las percepciones ciudadanas sobre las mismas. Se destaca la importancia de atributos ligados a la incumbencia. De esta manera, el éxito de Allison proviene de su capacidad de satisfacer las necesidades de los ciu- dadanos (a través del uso de mecanismos formales e informales de la gestión gubernamental) y de su habilidad política. Para cumplir su objetivo, la investigación recurre a la recopilación de datos sobre la municipalidad; la realización de entrevistas semi-estructuradas a funcionarios públicos y a actores claves de la sociedad civil; y la aplicación de encuestas estratificadas polietápicas en el distrito.

This dissertation is comprised of six standalone articles that provide insights on what type of candidate voters prefer with a particular focus on gender, age affinity, occupation, and political experience (i.e., incumbency). The question of who is elected is one of the most fundamental questions in political science as it pertains to the issue of descriptive representation. The first article presents two novel datasets that I collected. These datasets include information on all candidates in Canadian federal and Ontario provincial elections from 1867 to 2019, and they are the basis for four of the remaining articles in this dissertation. The second article examines whether women get fewer votes in Canadian federal elections. Using the novel data I collected, with over 21,000 unique candidates since 1921 (when the first women were allowed to run for seats in Parliament), we are able to compute precise estimates of the difference in the electoral fortunes of men and women candidates. We demonstrate that while there was a gender gap in the past, the difference between male and female candidates’ vote shares is now statistically indistinguishable from zero. The third article investigates whether women get fewer votes in the Ontario provincial elections. We again estimate the effects longitudinally, using the novel data I collected, from 1902 onwards. The results are very similar to those found for Canadian federal elections. This is important because it shows that our estimates are robust: regardless of the level of government, female candidates are not being discriminated against by voters. While these results might rely on Canadian data, finding similar results at different levels of government enhances the generalizability of my conclusions. The fourth article uses cross-national data from the Comparative Study of Electoral Systems project, covering 853,414 individual voters, 51 countries, 126 elections, and 639 unique leaders. Using this dataset, I test the hypotheses that a leader is more popular among voters closer to them in age and that such voters are more likely to vote for them. I find some support for both hypotheses though the effects are substantively very small. The fifth article asks if candidates who are lawyers get more votes compared to non-lawyers. This paper also leverages the novel data that I collected at the federal level, which includes the occupation and electoral performance of every candidate who ran for office between 1921 and 2015. Our analysis shows that lawyers get more votes than non-lawyers, but that their electoral advantage is very small. The sixth article asks whether incumbents have an electoral advantage and if such an advantage differs across gender. This paper once again uses the novel data that I collected to estimate the electoral advantage enjoyed by incumbents during 9 Canadian federal elections, in 2,739 ridings, from 1990 to 2019. Using a regression discontinuity (RD) design, I compare men and women who have very narrowly won or lost elections on their probability of running again, vote share and probability of winning in the next election. I find that there is an electoral advantage of being an incumbent but that the differences across gender are, with the exception of vote share, not significant. Incumbents are more likely to run again in the next election than their non-incumbent counterparts. Furthermore, women do not suffer an electoral penalty across the three different outcome variables, suggesting that voters are not discriminating against women once they run for office. / Cette thèse est constituée de six articles qui apportent un éclairage nouveau sur les préférences des électeurs à l’égard des candidats et de leurs profils sociodémographiques, avec une attention particulière portée au genre, à l’affinité d’âge, à l’occupation professionnelle et à l’expérience politique. La question cherchant à savoir qui se fait élire est l’une des plus fondamentales en science politique, car elle se rapporte à l’enjeu de la représentation descriptive. Le premier article présente deux bases de données originales que j’ai moi-même assemblées. Ces bases de données comportent de l’information sur l’ensemble des candidats aux élections fédérales canadiennes ainsi qu’aux élections provinciales ontariennes entre 1867 et 2019; elles posent les bases pour les autres articles de cette thèse. Le deuxième article examine si les femmes obtiennent moins de votes aux élections fédérales cana-diennes. En utilisant ma base de données inédite, comprenant plus de 21 000 candidat(e)s uniques depuis l’élection de 1921 (la première au cours de laquelle les femmes ont pu se porter candidates pour des sièges au Parlement), nous sommes en mesure d’estimer avec précision les différences qui existent dans la performance électorale des hommes et des femmes. Je démontre que, bien qu’il y ait eu un fossé entre les hommes les femmes qui ont cherché à se faire élire dans le passé, il ne semble pas y avoir aujourd’hui de réelle différence dans le pourcentage des voix récoltées par les candidats en fonction de leur sexe. Le troisième article se demande si les femmes obtiennent moins de votes dans les élections provin-ciales ontariennes. Les effets sont à nouveau estimés de manière longitudinale, en utilisant les don-nées qui ont été récoltées pour tous les candidats et toutes les candidates depuis 1902. Les résultats sont très similaires à ceux trouvés pour les élections fédérales canadiennes, ce qui démontre la ro-bustesse de mes conclusions. Peu importe le palier de gouvernement, il semble que l’électorat ne fasse pas de discrimination en fonction du sexe des candidats. Bien que ces résultats puissent être spécifiques au Canada, le fait que les résultats soient similaires aux niveaux fédéral et provincial accroît le caractère généralisable de mes conclusions. Le quatrième article utilise des données transnationales du projet Comparative Study of Electoral Sys-tems, couvrant plus de 850 000 individus et 639 leaders politiques dans 51 pays et 126 élections. Je teste les hypothèses voulant que les leaders soient plus populaires auprès d’électeurs du même groupe d’âge, et que ces derniers aient une plus forte propension à voter pour de tels leaders. J’obtiens des résultats qui semblent appuyer ces hypothèses, mais les effets associés à l’âge sont sub-stantivement très petits. Le cinquième article tâche de déterminer si les candidats qui pratiquent le métier d’avocats obtiennent plus de votes que les autres. Les analyses dans cette étude tirent parti de ma base de don-nées inédite sur les candidats lors des élections fédérales canadiennes, laquelle inclut l’occupation et la performance électorale de chaque candidat ayant brigué un siège au Parlement entre 1921 et 2015. Nos résultats démontrent que les avocats obtiennent plus de votes que les non-avocats, mais que leur avantage électoral est très limité. Le sixième article se demande si les candidats sortants bénéficient d’un avantage électoral et si cet avantage varie en fonction du genre. Cette étude tire parti de ma base de données originale pour estimer l’avantage électoral des candidats sortants lors de 9 élections fédérales canadiennes, dans 2 739 circonscriptions, entre 1990 et 2019. En déployant une analyse de discontinuité, je compare les hommes et les femmes qui ont de justesse gagné ou perdu des élections en fonction de trois critères : la probabilité de se porter candidat à nouveau, la part du vote obtenue et la probabilité de remporter la prochaine élection. Je trouve que le statut de sortant offre un avantage électoral, mais que les différences entre les hommes et les femmes sont, sauf pour ce qui est de la part du vote, non significatives. Les candidats sortants ont une plus grande probabilité de se représenter à la prochaine élection que les candidats non sortants. Qui plus est, les femmes ne souffrent de pénalité électorale pour aucune des trois variables dépendantes, ce qui suggère que les électeurs ne discriminent pas les candidats en fonction du genre.