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通貨膨脹目標政策效果分析 / Empirical Analysis of the Effect of Inflation Targeting on Inflation余福燊, Yu, Fu Shen Unknown Date (has links)
本文使用分量處理效果方法,分析通貨膨脹目標政策對通貨膨脹的影響。
依據Svensson (1997)與Orphanides and Wilcox (2002)的理論可知,當通貨膨脹低於目標區間時,通貨膨脹目標政策對通貨膨脹具有正向的效果;當通貨膨脹高於目標區間時,具有負向的效果;而當通貨膨脹位於目標區間時,效果微弱。本文利用1980年--2010年17個國家的年資料作實證分析。實證結果發現,通貨膨脹目標政策在不同分量的通貨膨脹下對通貨膨脹的影響有所不同。當通貨膨脹低的時候,通貨膨脹目標政策對通貨膨脹具有正向效果;然而,當通貨膨脹高的時候,具有負向效果,且隨著通貨膨脹的上升,負向效果有增強的趨勢。此結果與前述理論一致。
即使考慮刪去高通貨膨脹國家、將不同開發程度的國家分開討論、不同的資料期間和不同的政策開始時間,均得到類似的結果。
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Inflation in South Africa : 1921 - 2006. History, measurement and credibilityRossouw, Jannie 13 August 2008 (has links)
Please note: This degree was awarded by the University of Kwazulu-Natal. Permission was granted to archive it in this database for teaching purposes.This study reports the development and use of an original methodology to measure inflation credibility, as well as the first results of such measurement in terms of an inflation credibility barometer. The barometer is an instrument measuring the degree of acceptance of the accuracy of historic inflation figures. Despite the lack of knowledge about inflation and the low inflation credibility recorded by this first calculation of an inflation credibility barometer for South Africa, valuable information about inflation is unveiled to the authorities. The research results serve as a benchmark, but cannot be compared to earlier research, as this study represents the first systematic measurement of inflation credibility in South Africa. The barometer yields better results than the limited current international measurement of perceptions of the accuracy of historic inflation figures. The barometer (i) reports the credibility of inflation figures as a figure between zero and 100; (ii) will highlight changes in credibility over time with repeated use; (iii) can be explained easily to the general public; (iv) provides for international comparison between countries; and (v) can be used by all countries. The use of inflation credibility barometers and changes in barometer readings over time can also serve as an early warning system for changes in inflation perceptions that might feed through to inflation expectations. Sampling results used to calculate a South African inflation credibility barometer show little public understanding of the rate of inflation. Owing to an increased focus on inflation figures in countries using an inflation-targeting monetary policy, central banks entrusted with such a policy should adopt a communication strategy highlighting the calculation and measurement of the rate of inflation. This study shows that no generally accepted international benchmarks for successful central-bank communication strategies have been developed, but the use of the methodology developed in this study will assist in the assessment of the effectiveness of communication strategies. This study makes three further contributions of significance to available literature on inflation in South Africa. The first is an analysis of prices increases and inflation over a period of 85 years (1921 to 2006) and a selected comparison of salaries and remuneration over a period of 78 years (1929 to 2006). To this end data sets were developed for comparative purposes, thereby distinguishing between perception and reality about the accuracy of inflation figures over time. As this comparison has not been done before, a methodology was developed that can be used in future research. Based on these comparisons an inflation accuracy indicator (IAI) is developed for the first time. The research showed no systematic over or under-reporting of price increases, therefore confirming the general accuracy of the consumer price index (CPI) over time. As with the inflation credibility barometer, this methodology can be used internationally to confirm the accuracy of countries’ inflation figures over time. This methodology can also be used by developing countries with capacity constraints in economic modelling and forecasting. The second contribution to available literature is the first analysis of South Africa’s experience with inflation over a period of 85 years from the perspective of the central bank. This analysis highlights not only the difficulties encountered by a central bank to contain inflation, but also focuses the attention on the policy errors of the authorities in their quest to contain rising prices. The third contribution is an analysis of international and domestic initiatives aimed at improving the accuracy and measurement of inflation. The implications of these initiatives for developing countries are considered in the interest of a level international playing field between developed and developing countries. eo / Thesis (PhD)--University of Pretoria, 2008. / Economics / PhD / Unrestricted
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Особенности денежно-кредитной политики Банка России на современном этапе : магистерская диссертация / Features of the monetary policy of the Bank of Russia at the present stageСутягина, Е. В., Sutyagina, E. V. January 2018 (has links)
Целью магистерской диссертации является выявление противоречивых особенностей монетарного регулирования Банка России на современном этапе развития экономики страны. Автором проведен анализ степени монетизации экономики в разных странах, сделан вывод о недостаточном уровне монетизации в России; выявлены противоречия между целями и результатом использования ряда инструментов денежно-кредитной политики Банка России; представлены пути совершенствования денежно-кредитного регулирования; выявлены проблемы в банковском секторе, возникающие в результате регулятивных действий Банка России. / The purpose of the master's thesis is to identify the contradictory features of monetary regulation of the Bank of Russia at the present stage of the country's economic development. The author analyzed the degree of monetization of the economy in different countries, concluded that there is insufficient monetization in Russia; were revealed the contradictions between the purposes and the result of using a number of monetary policy instruments of the Bank of Russia;
are presented the ways to improve monetary regulation;
were identified the problems in the banking sector arising from regulatory actions of the Bank of Russia.
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Theoretical and empirical essays on inflation targeting and central bank transparency / Essais théoriques et empiriques sur les régimes de ciblage d’inflation et les politiques de transparence des banques centralesM'Baye, Cheick Kader 28 June 2013 (has links)
Cette thèse contribue au débat sur les politiques de ciblage d’inflation et de transparence des banques centrales en présentant notamment trois essais théoriques et empiriques sur le sujet. Dans le premier essai, nous étudions théoriquement les conditions sous lesquelles il serait optimal pour une banque centrale d’adopter explicitement un régime de ciblage d’inflation. Nous proposons un nouveau cadre théorique qui combine les deux principales raisons avancées dans la littérature pour expliquer les effets réels à court terme de la politique monétaire et qui sont d’une part, la présence d’informations hétérogènes entre les agents économiques (Phelps, 1970 ; Lucas, 1972), et d’autre part, la rigidité des salaires ou des prix (Taylor, 1980 ; Calvo, 1983). Nous analysons ensuite notre problématique dans ce nouveau cadre en considérant l’interaction entre le degré de rigidité des prix, et le degré de complémentarités stratégiques dans la fixation de prix des firmes. Nos résultats montrent que l’adoption d’un régime de ciblage d’inflation dépend fortement de l’importance relative des paramètres du modèle. En particulier, nous montrons que le ciblage d’inflation devrait être toujours adopté lorsque les complémentarités stratégiques sont faibles, alors que dans le cas contraire, il est optimal uniquement lorsque les prix sont assez rigides et que la banque centrale détient des informations suffisamment précises sur les fondamentaux de l’économie. Dans le second essai, nous utilisons la macroéconomie expérimentale afin d’évaluer dans quelle mesure l’annonce de la cible d’inflation est pertinente dans un cadre de ciblage de l’inflation. Nos résultats montrent que lorsque la banque centrale ne se soucie que de la stabilisation de l’inflation, l’annonce de la cible d’inflation n’apporte pas de gain supplémentaire en termes de performances macro-économiques, par rapport à une politique monétaire active (type règle de Taylor). Cependant, si la banque centrale intègre également la stabilisation de l’activité économique dans ses objectifs, la communication de la cible contribue à réduire la volatilité de l’inflation, du taux d’intérêt, et de l’écart de production, bien que leurs niveaux moyens ne soient pas affectés. Ce résultat fournit ainsi une justification pour l’adoption d’un régime de ciblage flexible d’inflation par la majorité des pays ciblant l’inflation. Enfin dans le troisième essai, nous appliquons une analyse transversale ainsi que la technique des variables instrumentales, afin d’analyser les effets de la transparence des banques centrales sur les résultats macroéconomiques dans les pays émergents. Nous construisons un nouvel indice de transparence qui combine certains aspects de l’indice de transparence globale d’Eijffinger et Geraats (2006), avec ceux de l’indice de transparence sur le comité de politique monétaire de Hayo et Mazhar (2011). Nous analysons ensuite le rôle individuel de chaque composante du nouvel indice en termes de réduction du niveau de l’inflation et de sa volatilité, ainsi que de la volatilité du produit. Contrairement à la littérature antérieure, nous trouvons que le nouvel indice de transparence ainsi que ses aspects économique, politique, procédurale et de transparence sur la politique monétaire impactent négativement le niveau moyen de l’inflation, mais pas sa volatilité dans ces pays. L’unique composante du nouvel indice qui permet de réduire à la fois la volatilité de l’inflation et celle de la production est la transparence opérationnelle. Ces résultats s’avèrent robustes aux différentes spécifications de modèles économétriques utilisés dans cet essai. / This dissertation contributes to the debate on inflation targeting and central bantransparency by presenting three theoretical and empirical essays on the topic. In the first essay, we theoretically investigate the conditions under which it would be optimal for a central bank to explicitly adopt an inflation targeting regime. We propose a new theoretical framework that combines the two main frictions put forward in the literature to explain the real short run effects of monetary policy that is, heterogeneous information among agents (Phelps, 1970; Lucas, 1972), and wage or price rigidities (Taylor, 1980; Calvo, 1983). We then analyze our issue in this new framework by considering the interaction between the degree of price stickiness, and the degree of strategic complementarities in firms’ price setting. Our results show that adopting an inflation targeting regime crucially depends on the relative importance of the model’s parameters. In particular, we show that inflation targeting should always be adopted when strategic complementarities are low, while in the opposite case, it is optimal only if prices are sticky enough and the central bank holds sufficiently accurate information on the fundamentals of the economy. In the second essay, we use experimental macroeconomics to evaluate to what extent communication of the inflation target is relevant in an inflation targeting framework. Our results show that first, when the central bank only cares about inflation stabilization, announcing the inflation target does not make a difference in terms of macroeconomic performance compared to a standard active monetary policy. However, if the central bank also cares about the stabilization of the economic activity, communicating the target helps to reduce the volatility of inflation, interest rate, and output gap although their average levels are not affected. This finding provides a rationale for the adoption of flexible inflation targeting by the majority of inflation targeting countries. In the third essay, using a cross-sectional analysis and instrumental variables technique, we analyze the impact of central bank transparency on macroeconomic outcomes in emerging economies. We build a new index of transparency that combines some aspects of the overall Eijffinger and Geraats (2006) transparency index, with those of monetary policy committee transparency developed in Hayo and Mazhar (2011). We then analyze the individual role of each component of the new index in mitigating inflation and its volatility, as well as output volatility. By contrast to the previous literature, we interestingly find that the overall new index of transparency as well as its political, economic, procedural, and policy aspects negatively impact the average level of inflation, but not its volatility in these countries. The unique component of the new index that reduces the volatility of both inflation and output is operational transparency, and these results are robust to different econometric and instruments setting specifications.
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Essays on Inflation Dynamics and Monetary Policy in a Globalized World. / Essais sur la dynamique de l'inflation et la politique monétaire dans un monde globalisé.Tahir, Muhammad Naveed 20 December 2012 (has links)
L’objectif de cette thèse est d’analyser l’effet de la globalisation sur la dynamique de l’inflation et sur la politique monétaire dans un monde de globalisation. Cette thèse porte 3 chapitres :Dans le premier chapitre, nous nous intéressons à l’impact de la globalisation financière sur le comportement du ciblage d’inflation dans les pays émergents, avec une attention particulière portée au taux de change : la Banque centrale répond-elle aux mouvements du taux de change ? Nous nous sommes basés sur des données trimestrielles de six pays émergents qui pratiquent la politique de ciblage d’inflation, depuis la date de l’adoption de cette dernière, jusqu’au dernier trimestre 2009 (2009 Q4). L’étude se base sur un modèle de petite économie ouverte néo-Keynésien à la Gali et Monacelli (2005). Nous utilisons un estimateur GMM à équations multiples pour analyser la relation. Les résultats nous montrent que la réponse de la Banque Centrale au taux de change est statistiquement significatif dans le cas du Brésil, du Chili, du Mexique et de la Thaïlande. En revanche, elle ne l’est pas pour la Corée ni pour la République Tchèque. Théoriquement, le résultat ne devrait pas être significatif même avec un ciblage d’inflation flexible où la banque centrale répond aux écarts d’inflation et de production.Nous pensons que les caractéristiques particulières des pays émergents, telles que la peur du flottement “fear of floating”, le manque de développement du système financier ainsi qu’un manque de crédibilité de la banque centrale, expliquent cette préoccupation des banque centrales pour les variations de change. Dans le deuxième chapitre, nous étudions d’une façon empirique l’importance relative des canaux de transmission de la politique monétaire pour le Brésil, le Chili et la Corée. Cette partie se base sur des données mensuelles depuis l’adoption du ciblage d’inflation jusqu’à décembre 2009 (2009 M12). Nous utilisons un modèle SVAR, en incorporant les principaux canaux de transmission monétaire simultanément au lieu de les considérer séparément. Les résultats empiriques indiquent que le canal de taux de change ainsi que canal du prix des actifs ont une importance relativement plus élevée que le canal du taux d’intérêt traditionnel ou le canal du crédit pour la production industrielle. Les résultats sont très différents dans le cas de l’inflation, à l’exception de la Corée. Le classement élevé canal du taux de change et du canal du prix des actifs correspondent aux résultats de Gudmundsson (2007) : le canal du taux de change pourrait avoir pris une importance grandissante avec la développement de la globalisation financière.Dans le troisième chapitre, nous étudions empiriquement le rôle de l’ouverture - réelle et financière - sur la dynamique de l’inflation au Brésil, Chile en Corée du Sud. L’étude se base sur des données mensuelles, depuis l’adoption du ciblage d’inflation jusqu’à décembre 2009. Dans ce dernier chapitre, nous utilisons méthode de moments généralisée (GMM). Le ratio Importation sur PIB est considéré comme étant l’indicateur de l’ouverture réelle. En ce qui concerne l’ouverture financière, nous considérons alternativement l’indice de Chinn et Ito (KAOPEN) mesurant le degré de libéralisation des opérations sur le compte financier, et l’indicateur proposé per Lane et Milesi-Ferreti (2009).Nous concluons dans ce chapitre qu’il existe en général une relation positive entre l’ouverture réelle et l’inflation. En ce qui concerne l’ouverture financière, les résultats sont moins tranchés et dépendent largement de l’indicateur utilisé pour mesurer l’ouverture financière. / The aim of this thesis is to analyze the impact of globalization on the dynamics of inflation and monetary policy in a globalized world. It consists of three essays.In the first essay we investigate the impact of financial globalization on the behaviour of inflation targeting emerging market economies with respect to exchange rate – Do central banks respond to exchange rate movements or not? We use quarterly data for six emerging market inflation targeting economies from the date of their inflation targeting adoption to 2009 Q4. The chapter uses small open economy new Keynesian model à la Gali and Monacelli (2005), and employs multi-equation GMM technique to investigate the relationship. We find that the response of central bank to the exchange rate in case of Brazil, Chile, Mexico and Thailand is statistically significant while insignificant for Korea and Czech Republic. Theoretically, it should not be so as even under flexible inflation targeting central bank responds to inflation deviation and output gap; we think that the peculiar characteristics of emerging markets, like fear of floating, weak financial system and low level of central bank credibility make exchange rate important for these economies. In the second essay we investigate empirically the relative importance of monetary transmission channels for Brazil, Chile and Korea. This chapter uses monthly data from the inception of inflation targeting regime to 2009 M12. We use a SVAR model incorporating the main monetary transmission channels combined together instead of individual channels in isolation. The empirical results indicate that the exchange rate channel and the share price channel have higher relative importance than the traditional interest rate and credit channel for industrial production. The results are not much different in case of inflation, except for Korea. The high ranking of exchange rate and share price channel is in line with the results by Gudmundsson (2007), which finds that exchange rate channel might have overburdened in the wake of financial globalization.In the third chapter we investigate empirically the role of openness – real and financial – on the inflation dynamics of Brazil, Chile and Korea. The chapter uses monthly data from the inception of inflation targeting regime to the end month of 2009. In this chapter we employ the Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) technique. We use imports to GDP ratio as an indicator for real openness whereas Chinn and Ito index (KAOPEN) and total assets plus total liabilities to GDP ratio form the data set of Lane and Milesi-Ferretti are two proxies for financial openness. The chapter concludes that there exists, generally, a positive relationship between real openness and inflation. However, in case of financial globalization the results are inconclusive as they are sensitive to measurement method of financial globalization.
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Měnová politika ČNB a perspektivy přijetí eura / Monetary policy of ČNB and prospects of euro adoptionHojková, Tereza January 2009 (has links)
The thesis "Monetary policy of ČNB and prospects of euro adoption" focuses on assessment of current monetary policy of the Czech National Bank its role in the process of preparation for the adoption of the single European currency and the Czech Republic's preparations for joining the European Monetary Union. The second part deals with the monetary policy of the Czech National Bank in connection with the entry into the European Monetary Union and its alignment with the monetary policy of the European Central Bank. The third section examines the impact of financial crisis on the monetary policy of the Czech National Bank, and development of economy of the Czech Republic in comparison with the European Monetary Union.
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Owner Occupied Housing in the CPI and its Impact on Monetary Policy during Housing Booms and BustsHill, Robert J., Steurer, Miriam, Waltl, Sofie R. 07 1900 (has links) (PDF)
The treatment of owner-occupied housing (OOH) is probably the most important unresolved issue in inflation measurement. How -- and whether -- it is included in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) affects inflation expectations, the measured level of real interest rates, and the behavior of governments, central banks and market participants. We show that none of the existing treatments of OOH are fit for purpose. Hence we propose a new simplified user cost
method with better properties. Using a micro-level dataset, we then compare the empirical behavior of eight different treatments of OOH. Our preferred user cost approach pushes up the CPI during housing booms (by 2 percentage points or more). Our findings relate to the following important debates in macroeconomics: the behavior of the Phillips curve in the US during the global financial crisis, and the response of monetary policy to housing booms, secular
stagnation, and globalization. / Series: Department of Economics Working Paper Series
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Intervenção estatal na economia: o Banco Central e a execução das políticas monetária e creditícia / State intervencion: Central Bank and the monetary and credit policies execution.Ladeira, Florinda Figueiredo Borges 01 June 2010 (has links)
Este trabalho presta-se a analisar a adequação da execução da política monetária pelos Bancos Centrais, com enfoque especial dado ao Banco Central do Brasil e ao arcabouço normativo atualmente em vigor sobre a matéria. A necessidade de desenvolver este tema sobreveio da verificação, especialmente nas duas últimas décadas, de um distanciamento dos Bancos Centrais em relação às orientações do Poder Executivo. O regime de metas inflacionárias, tido como o ideal para orientar a atuação dos Bancos Centrais e assegurar a estabilidade da moeda foi assumido como o objetivo-fim da política monetária, em detrimento das previsões constitucionais acerca da promoção do desenvolvimento equilibrado do País, da busca do pleno emprego e da redução das desigualdades sociais. Para a análise desenvolvida, partiu-se do método histórico, por meio do qual foi possível verificar, a partir do Século XIX até o presente, de que forma os Bancos Centrais surgiram e galgaram posições de relevo enquanto agentes do Estado orientados a intervir na economia para fins de promoção social, especialmente a partir do surgimento e consolidação do Direito Econômico como ciência jurídica legitimadora da intervenção estatal. Em seguida, buscou-se explorar as funções dos Bancos Centrais, os instrumentos dos quais dispõem para o exercício da política monetária e a adequação dos objetivos dessa política no contexto da política econômica desenvolvida pelo Estado. Por fim, passou-se à análise do Banco Central do Brasil no que concerne a evolução da execução da política monetária, paralelamente às conquistas sociais e políticas do país, com especial destaque para as décadas de 1960 e 1990. / This work is to examine the appropriateness of implementing monetary policy by central banks, with particular emphasis given to the Central Bank of Brazil and the regulatory framework currently in force on the matter. The need to develop this theme came to check, especially in the last two decades, from a distance of central banks in relation to Executive guidelines. Inflation targeting system, seen as the ideal to drive central banks actions and ensure currency stability was adopted as the end goal of monetary policy at the expense of constitutional statements upon balanced development of the country, in pursuit of comprehensive employment and the reduction of social inequalities. For the developed analysis, historical method has been adopted which enabled the understanding from the nineteenth century until present days upon how Central Banks emerged and have risen to prominent positions as agents of the Stated driven to intervene in economy for social advancement, especially since the emergence and consolidation of Economic Law and legal science legitimating state intervention. Then Central Banks central banks functions were explored, theirs tools for monetary policy undertaking and the adequacy of such objectives in the context of economic policy developed by the state. Finally, we have assessed Brazil Central Bank in regards of monetary policy implementation development, along with social and political local achievements, with particular emphasis to the 60s and 90s.
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Atuação do Banco Central do Brasil na crise de 2008/2009 e o Regime de Metas de InflaçãoSilva, Glauco Freire da 21 May 2012 (has links)
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Previous issue date: 2012-05-21 / Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior / The purpose of this study is to analyze the actions of the Central Bank of Brazil in the financial crisis of 2008/2009, with reference to the Inflation Targeting Regime. Thus, the methodological procedure was the analysis and systematization of official documents. Is important to note that the Central Bank's actions in the crisis proved to be dubious, as it sought to free up liquidity with the compulsory reserves and, in parallel, withdrawing liquidity from the market to prevent the Selic rate to fall below target. On the other hand, the keeping of interest rates in 2008 showed that the Targeting Regime in Brazil proved to be hard in the period in which the variations in the Selic rate tended to be gradual and flagged. The analysis proposed in the work is presented in four chapters. Initially, the formation of a new consensus in macroeconomics which justifies the use of inflation targeting as a monetary policy framework since the mid 1990s. Then we describe the adoption of inflation targeting regime in Brazil in July 1999. Chapter two describes also the actions the Ministry of Finance with special attention to the role of public banks. Chapter three examines the policy measures of the Central Bank related to the provision of liquidity in domestic currency, especially the compulsory reserves, and liquidity in dollars in the foreign exchange market interventions. It is observed that at this moment the Central Bank maintained the Selic rate unchanged. Finally, we discuss the decision making of the Monetary Authority in relation to the interest rate, such as maintaining the rate in October and December 2008, the decrease between January and July 2009 and interrupted in September / O objetivo deste trabalho consiste em analisar a atuação do Banco Central do Brasil na crise financeira de 2008/2009, tendo como referência o Regime de Metas de Inflação. Para tanto, o procedimento metodológico foi à análise e sistematização de documentos oficiais. Destaca-se que a atuação do Banco Central na crise se mostrou dúbia, na medida em que procurou liberar liquidez com os encaixes compulsórios e, paralelamente, retirou liquidez do mercado para evitar que a taxa Selic caísse abaixo da meta. Por outro lado, a manutenção da taxa de juros em 2008 evidenciou que o Regime de Metas no Brasil se mostrou rígido no período, no qual as variações na taxa Selic tenderam a ser graduais e sinalizadas. A análise proposta no trabalho se apresenta em quatro capítulos. Inicialmente, a formação de um novo consenso na macroeconomia o qual fundamenta a utilização do regime de metas como arcabouço de política monetária desde meados dos anos 1990. Depois, descreve-se a adoção do regime de metas pelo Brasil em julho de 1999. O capítulo dois descreve, ainda, as medidas do Ministério da Fazenda com especial atenção para a atuação dos bancos públicos. O capítulo três analisa as medidas de política do Banco Central relacionadas à oferta de liquidez em moeda doméstica, com destaque para os encaixes compulsórios, e a liquidez em dólares com intervenções no mercado de câmbio. Observa-se que neste primeiro momento o Banco Central manteve a taxa Selic inalterada. Por fim, discute-se a tomada de decisão da Autoridade Monetária em relação à taxa de juros, tal como a manutenção da taxa em outubro e dezembro de 2008, a redução entre janeiro e julho de 2009 e a interrupção em setembro
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Financial Stability and Inflation Stabilization / Stabilité financière et stabilisation de l'inflationFouejieu Azangue, Armand 19 May 2015 (has links)
La crise financière de 2008-2009 a conduit à reconsidérer la relation entre politique monétaire et stabilité financière, soulignant la nécessité pour les banques centrales d’être plus attentives aux risques financiers. Cette crise a également mis en évidence les limites du cadre de régulation (micro)prudentielle existant, renforçant ainsi l’importance d’une approche macroprudentielle visant à contenir le risque systémique. La présente thèse s’articule autour de ces questions. L’objectif est d’analyser dans quelle mesure un cadre de politique monétaire avec pour objectif principal la stabilité des prix (tel le ciblage d’inflation), pourrait accentuer le risque d’instabilité financière. Il s’agit en outre de souligner et discuter le rôle que peuvent jouer les politiques monétaire et macroprudentielle pour assurer et renforcer la stabilité du secteur financier (Chapitre I). Les résultats de l’analyse suggèrent que les banques centrales cibleuses d’inflation ont été mieux à même de contenir les conséquences de la récente crise financière (Chapitre II). Cependant, il semble que le risque d’instabilité financière soit plus fort au sein des pays émergents cibleurs d’inflation (comparé aux non-cibleurs), malgré les réponses des banques centrales aux déséquilibres financiers (Chapitre III). Ceci remet en cause l’efficacité de la stratégie du leaning against the wind. Nos conclusions montrent que cette stratégie génère un conflit d’objectif entre stabilité macroéconomique et stabilité financière. La mise en place d’un cadre macroprudentiel efficace, associé à une politique monétaire plus sensible aux risques financiers, permettrait de garantir un environnement économique globalement plus stable (Chapitre IV). Par ailleurs, il apparait que les pays émergents cibleurs d’inflation s’appuient sur le contrôle du taux de change pour faire face à la forte vulnérabilité de leur système financier aux chocs externes; ceci en dépit de l’exigence de flexibilité du change que requiert cette stratégie de politique monétaire (Chapitre V). / The 2008/2009 global financial crisis has revived the debate on the concern for financial stability in themonetary policy-making, stressing the need to reconsider the role of central banks in ensuring financialstability. The crisis has also pointed some flaws in the existing (micro) prudential regulation and therelevance to move toward a broader regulatory framework aiming to prevent systemic risk. This thesis isbuilt upon these issues. It investigates the extent to which financial stability may be of particular concernin a context where the main monetary policy objective is inflation stabilization (typically, in an inflationtargeting regime –IT–). It further assesses how the macroprudential framework and monetary policy canbe articulated to ensure the best outcome in terms of macroeconomic and financial stability (Chapter I).The conclusions derived from this work suggest that, faced with the recent global financial turmoil,inflation targeting central banks have been more able to mitigate the shock, certainly thanks to higherpolicy credibility (Chapter II). However, we evidence that IT countries (especially in EMEs) are morefinancially vulnerable than their non-IT counterparts, despite central banks’ response to financial risks(Chapter III). Following the latter conclusion, we investigate more closely the effectiveness of the leaningagainst the wind strategy. We show that such a policy response generates trade-offs between thefinancial and macroeconomic stability objectives of the monetary authorities. The best stabilizationoutcome is achieved when an effective macroprudential framework is implemented, combined withhigher central bank’s concern with financial risks (Chapter IV). Furthermore, we show that in EMEsITers, foreign exchange interventions are used to mitigate their financial vulnerability to external shocks,although the IT regime requires a fully floating exchange rate regime (Chapter V).
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