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Soils are a critical resource for supporting ecosystems, agricultural systems, and human wellbeing. However, these same soils have been degraded by human activities throughout human history. Despite the rapid development of global models that include dynamic changes in land use and land cover (LULC) and biogeochemical processes to assess climate and hydrological impacts, soil properties are often assumed to be spatially or temporally constant. These assumptions can affect the results of model projections, impact assessments and underestimate the human impact on Earth systems. This study reveals the physical impacts of human-altered soil conditions on the global water balance through a meta-analysis study and soil degradation modeling. We link major global LULCs to four hydrologic soil groups: sandy (sand, sandy loam, and loamy sand), loamy (loam, silty loam, and silt)), clayey soils (clay, sandy clay, clay loam, silty clay, and silty clay loam), and sandy clay loam) from 850 to 2015 AD, and identified loamy and clayey soils as the preferred soils for most human land uses. Humans selectively use those soils for intensive agriculture and pasture activities, while grazing occurs on sandier soils. To simulate the impact of human activities on soils, several soil change models were built for soil organic carbon (SOC) content, soil texture (sand, silt, and clay), and soil bulk density from meta-analyses of site observations. The models were applied globally based on the LULC and soil relations, global environmental and soil conditions, and LULC distributions. Pedotransfer functions were applied to estimate soil water-holding capacity using those soil properties, then a Thornthwaite-type water balance model was used to assess the impacts of soil degradation on the global water balance. Results show that under a high-intensity LULC scenario (conventional tillage on croplands and heavy grazing), SOC decreases by 363 Pg and water deficit increases 78 km3 globally. The impacts on SOC and deficit are reduced to 213 Pg and 51 km3, respectively, when reducing land-use intensity by substituting animal ploughing/no-till and light grazing for conventional tillage and heavy grazing. Impacts from other LULC types are identical for these two LULC scenarios. Development of this history between LULC and soil properties allows for improved simulation of human impacts on global water, energy, and biogeochemical cycles. The results of the water balance simulations demonstrate how different soils representations in models can significantly alter the estimates of global evapotranspiration, water deficit, and surplus. This study contributes to developing a better understanding of the processes by which human-induced soil degradation impacts climate/hydrological models and providing a mechanism to better assess the impacts of humans on the Earth system. The outcome will also complement numerous ongoing global studies that evaluate the impacts of climate change on water resources and society. / Graduate / 2023-08-09

Forecasted changes to climate and land use were used to model variations in the streamflow characteristics of Occoquan watershed and water quality in the Occoquan reservoir. The combination of these two driving forces has created four themes and an integrated complexly-linked watershed-reservoir model was used to run the simulations. Two emission scenarios from the fourth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), along with four General Circulation Models (GCMs) by using two statistical downscaling methods, were applied to drive the Hydrological Simulation Program - Fortran (HSPF) and CE-QUAL-W2 (W2) in two future time periods (2046-2065 and 2081-2100). Incorporation of these factors yielded 68 simulation models which were compared with historical streamflow and water quality data from the late 20th century. Climate change is projected to increase surface air temperature and precipitation depth in the study area in the future. Using climate change only, an increase in high and median flows and decrease in low flows are projected. Changes in flow characteristics are more pronounced when only future land use changes are considered, with increases in high, median and low flows. Under the joint examination of the driving forces, an amplifying effect on the high flows and median flows observed. In contrast, climate change is projected to dampen the extreme increases in the low flows created by the land use change. Surface water temperatures are projected to increase as a result of climate change in the Occoquan reservoir, while these changes are not very noticeable under the effect of land use change only. It is expected that higher water temperatures will promote decreased oxygen solubility and greater heterotrophy. Moreover, longer anoxic conditions are projected at the bottom of the reservoir. Results indicate that higher water temperature will increase the denitrifying capacity of the reservoir, especially during summer months, further reducing the nitrate concentration in the reservoir. / PHD / Water resources managers are facing a new set of challenges of developing strategies to address the regional impacts of climate change and land use change, especially in metropolitan areas. Simulating climate change and land use change scenarios can shed light on mitigation and adaption approaches for water resources management as well as future designs (for example, infrastructure, agriculture, irrigation, etc. among other sectors). The focus of this study is the Occoquan watershed with an area of 1530 km² (590 square miles) which includes the 1700-acre Occoquan reservoir that yields about 40% of the drinking water supply of near 2.0 million residents in northern Virginia. The Occoquan watershed located approximately 40 km to the southwest of Washington, D.C. and is situated in the Mid-Atlantic region of the United Sates with four distinct seasons and is part of a bigger watershed known as the Potomac River Watershed. The primary aim of this research is to provide an improved, quantitative understanding of the potential impacts of climate change and land use change on the Occoquan watershed. The findings of this research can benefit future water supply reliability and mitigation strategies in the study area considering this watershed’s essential role as a water supplier in northern Virginia.

Societal developments are associated with land use change, and with urbanization in particular. Urbanization can influence hydrological processes by decreasing evapotranspiration and infiltration as well as by increasing streamflow, peak flow and overland flow. This causes higher risks of flooding. Although several studies have investigated the impacts of urbanization on streamflow over the last decades, less is known about how urbanization affects the hydrological processes in peri-urban areas characterized by a complex mosaic of different land uses. This study aimed to model the impact of land use change, or more specifically urbanization, on the hydrological responses of the small peri-urban Ribeira dos Covões catchment (6.2 km2) located in central Portugal. The catchment has undergone rapid land use change since the mid- 1950s associated with conversion of agricultural fields (decreased from 48 to 4%) into woodland and urban areas, which increased from 44 to 56% and from 8 to 40%, respectively. For the study, the hydrological modelling system MIKE SHE was used. Parameters and data of climate, vegetation and soil types were used as input. There were also land use maps and daily streamflow values available for the hydrological years 2008/09 to 2012/13, which were used to calibrate and validate the model. The statistics from the calibration and validation both indicated that the model simulated the streamflow well. The model was designed to examine both how past land use change might have affected the streamflow, and to investigate the impacts on hydrology if the urban area was to be increased to cover 50% of the catchment. It was not only the importance of the urban cover’s size that was tested, but also the placement of additional urban areas. Three future scenarios were run, all with a 50% urban cover, but distributed differently within the catchment. The study did not indicate that an increase in urbanization leads to higher peak flow or streamflow. Neither could any decrease in infiltration be seen. All three scenarios however gave an increase in overland flow of approximately 10% and a decrease in evapotranspiration by 55%, regardless of where the urban areas were added. The reliability of the models can be enhanced by additional climate, soil and vegetation data. This would improve the results and make them more useful in decision making processes in the planning and management of new urban areas. / Samhällets ständiga utveckling medför förändringar i markanvändning. Utvecklingen och förändringarna är framför allt associerade med urbanisering som kan påverka ett avrinningsområdes hydrologiska processer genom att exempelvis reducera dess evapotranspiration och infiltration samt öka vattenföringen, högsta flödet och ytavrinningen. Det i sin tur ökar risken för översvämning. Trots att många studier har undersökt urbaniseringens inverkan på vattenföring de senaste decennierna saknas viss kunskap om dess påverkan på hydrologin i stadsnära avrinningsområden, kännetecknade av flera olika typer av markanvändning. Denna studie syftade till att modellera hur förändringar i markanvändning, eller mer specifikt urbanisering, påverkar hydrologin i det lilla stadsnära avrinningsområdet Ribeira dos Covões (6,2 km2) i centrala Portugal. Avrinningsområdet har genomgått snabba markanvändningsförändringar sedan mitten av 1950-talet i samband med en omvandling av åkrar (täckningsarean har minskat från 48 till 4 %) till skogsmark och urbaniserade områden, vilkas storlek har ökat från 44 till 56 % respektive 8 till 40 %. För att uppfylla syftet har den hydrologiska modellen MIKE SHE använts. Parametrar avseende klimat samt vegetations- och jordegenskaper användes som indata till modellen. Det fanns också tillgång till en markanvändningskarta över området samt dagliga flödesvärden mellan de hydrologiska åren 2008 och 2013. Dessa användes för att kalibrera och validera modellen. Statistiken för både kalibreringen och valideringen indikerade en fullt acceptabel modell. Modellen var avsedd att undersöka dels hur tidigare förändring i markanvändning kan ha påverkat vattenföringen, dels för att studera effekten på hydrologin om urbaniseringen fortgår tills dess täckning är 50 % av avrinningsområdet. Det var inte bara betydelsen av de urbana ytornas storlek som testades, utan även placeringen av dem. Tre framtidsscenarier togs fram, alla med en urban yta på 50 % fördelad olika inom avrinningsområdet. Studien indikerade inte att ytterligare urbanisering ökar vare sig flödet eller det högsta flödet. Inte heller gav de någon minskning av infiltration. Alla tre scenarierna gav emellertid en ökning av ytavrinningen med cirka 10 % och en minskning av evapotranspirationen med 55 %, oavsett placering av de urbana ytorna. Modellernas tillförlitlighet skulle kunna förbättras med hjälp av ytterligare klimat-, vegetations- och jordindata. Det skulle förbättra resultaten och göra dem användbara i beslutsfattanden vid planering och utveckling av nya urbana områden.

In den letzten zwei Jahrzehnten wurden in Sumatra (Indonesien) große Regenwaldflächen für den Anbau von Kautschuk- und Palmölplantagen zerstört. Dies zeigt sich in der Abnahme Waldfläche in dieser Region um 36% zwischen 1990-2010. Eine solch schnelle Landnutzungsänderung hat Auswirkungen auf die Umwelt: Es ist davon auszugehen, dass die Zerstörung von Regenwald und die Etablierung von Kautschuk- und Palmölplantagen aufgrund von Einflüssen auf die Bodenoberfläche, Veränderungen von Streufall, Nährstoffverfügbarkeit und Management in den Plantagen zu erhöhter Nährstoffauswaschung und einer verminderten Nährstoffretentionseffizienz führt. Diese Arbeit stellt zwei Studien vor, die sich mit den Auswirkungen der Regenwaldzerstörung - und der einhergehenden Kultivierung von Kautschuk und Ölpalmenbäumen - auf Nährstoffauswaschung und Nährstoffretentionseffizienz beschäftigt. Außerdem untersucht sie Unterschiede in der Nährstoffauswaschung zwischen gedüngten und mit Palmwedeln bedeckten Bereichen in Palmölplantagen. Beide Studien wurden in zwei Landschaften der Provinz Jambi (Sumatra, Indonesien) mit stark verwitterten Acrisol-Böden durchgeführt, die sich in der Bodenart unterscheiden (lehm- bzw. tonhaltiger Acrisol). Die Nährstoffauswaschung im Boden wurde mit Saugkerzen-Lysimetern gemessen, die in 1,5m Tiefe im Boden installiert wurden. Beprobt wurde von Februar bis Dezember 2013 zweiwöchentlich bis monatlich. Die erste Studie beschäftigt sich mit der Nährstoffauswaschung und Nährstoffretentionseffizienz im Boden vierer verschiedener Landnutzungsarten. Dabei handelt es sich um die zwei Referenznutzungsformen Tieflandregenwald sowie Sekundärwald durchsetzt mit Kautschukbäumen, als auch um die veränderten Landnutzungsformen kleinbäuerlicher Kautschuk- und Ölpalmplantagen. Jede Landnutzung, ausgenommen der Palmölplantagen mit drei Wiederholungen, wurde durch vier Wiederholungsflächen innerhalb jeder Landschaft repräsentiert. Somit wurde die Studie auf insgesamt 30 Flächen durchgeführt. Die Ergebnisse zeigen für den lehmigen Acrisol-Boden der Referenzflächen eine höhere Auswaschung und eine niedrigere N-Retentionseffizienz für Stickstoff (N) und basische Kationen, verglichen mit dem tonigen Acrisol-Boden bestanden. In den Palmölplantagen zeigte sich, dass Düngung und Kalkung zu erhöhter Auswaschung von gelöstem N, gelöstem organischen Kohlenstoff (DOC) und basischen Kationen führte, sowie zu einer geringeren Retentionseffizienz von N und basischen Kationen im Boden. In den ungedüngten Kautschukplantagen dagegen waren die Auswaschungsverluste von gelöstem N, DOC und basischen Kationen geringer als in den Palmölplantagen. Zusammenfassend zeigten die Ergebnisse, dass Nährstoffverluste und Nährstoffretentionseffizienz in Kautschuk- und Palmölplantagen auf stark verwitterten Acrisolen primär von Tongehalt und Management abhängen. In der zweiten Studie wurde die Nährstoffauswaschung in den gedüngten und mit Palmwedeln bedeckten Bereichen in Palmölplantagen von Kleinbauern in lehm- bzw. tonhaltigen Acrisolen gemessen. Die Ergebnisse zeigten höhere Auswaschverluste (d.h. N, basische Kationen, Gesamt-Aluminium, Gesamt-Mangan, Gesamt-Schwefel und Chlor) in den gedüngten Bereichen als in den mit Palmwedeln bedeckten Bereichen aufgrund der Frequenz des Mineraldünger- und Kalkeinsatzes. Auf Landschaftsebene wurden die höheren Bodennährstoffvorräte und eine niedrigere Nährstoffauswaschung im Ton-Acrisol im Vergleich zum Lehm-Acrisol sowohl in den gedüngten als auch in den mit Palmwedeln bedeckten Bereichen durch die höhere Nährstoffretention (als Ergebnis höheren Tongehaltes) verursacht. Die Kombination von Nährstoffauswaschung und Nährstoffeintrag (d.h. Gesamtniederschlag und Dünger) mit zusätzlichen Informationen über den Nährstoffaustrag durch die Ernte, geben uns umfassendere Informationen über die Veränderungen im partiellen Nährstoffhaushalt von N, Phosphor (P), und basischen Kationen bei Waldumwandlung zu Palmöl- und Kautschukplantagen. Gedüngte Palmölplantagen hatten aufgrund der hohen jährlichen Nährstoffauswaschung und des Ernteexports das niedrigste jährliche Teilbudget an N, Kalzium (Ca) und Magnesium (Mg). Dennoch verringerten die hohen negativen Teilbudgets von N, Ca und Mg in den Palmölplantagen nicht deren Vorräte in 1m Bodentiefe verglichen mit den anderen Landnutzungsformen - außer für austauschbares Mg im Lehm-Acrisol. Obwohl ungedüngte Kautschukplantagen geringere Auswaschung zeigen als der Wald (z.B. für P), führte der Ernteexport zu einem geringeren jährlichen P-Teilbudget. Insgesamt implizieren die Ergebnisse der beiden Studien folgende verbesserte Managementverfahren für diese hochverwitterten Böden: eine Synchronisation der Düngermenge mit der Pflanzenaufnahme sowie eine Anpassung der Düngungshӓufigkeit.

The thesis was conducted to investigate soil fertility changes and assess the sustainability of agroecological management in different land-use systems of the southern Ecuadorian Andes using quantitative and qualitative methods. Ecuador still holds the highest deforestation rate of all Latin American countries which also has a large impact in the research area by forest conversion into agricultural land. Agricultural land-use systems in the research area are multifaceted due to heterogeneous biophysical and socio-economic conditions. To map this diversity, land-use systems were investigated in Yantzaza (low-external-input), El Tambo (irrigated cash crops) and San Lucas (integrated nutrient management). Yet, management effects on soil fertility have not been assessed systematically in Ecuadorian farming systems which hampers the evaluation whether agroecological management is sustainable. Therefore, the present study used a set of quantitative and qualitative approaches to assess soil fertility changes at plot and farm scale with a nutrient balance/chronosequence approach and local expert knowledge. Nutrient balances were modeled with Nutmon after adaptation of difficult-to-quantify flows to the local conditions facilitating area and land-use specific calculation. Soil nutrient balances in the research area were diverse and varied between −151 to 66 kg ha-1 a-1, −4 to 33 kg ha-1 a-1 and −346 to 39 kg ha-1 a-1 for NPK, respectively. The evaluation of socio-economic and soil fertility explanatory variables revealed that up to 70% of the balances’ variability could be explained. Land-uses with a strong market orientation such as annual crops in El Tambo received large amounts of external inputs which were often focused on mineral N fertilization causing strongly negative PK balances. In contrast, P balances were mainly positive after the application of organic fertilizers and nutrient recycling as was found in perennial crops of San Lucas. NP balances in annual crops of Yantzaza were most negative due to the low-external-input system with nonexistent fertilization as well as leaching and burning of crop residues. Highest soil nutrient stocks were found in land-uses benefiting from a surplus of within-farm flows. The quantification of soil nutrient stocks and their temporal changes were carried out with a chronosequence approach in Yantzaza. SOC stocks in annual/perennial crops and pastures decreased between 14% and 19% after forest conversion by slash-and-burn. Annual sites were abandoned not later than five years after forest conversion due to a shortage of available N and P closely linked to low-external-input management. Stocks for TN, TP, TS and exchangeable bases increased above forest level in perennial crops and pastures 6-20 years after forest conversion. Yet a strong decrease in SOC and soil nutrient stocks was found in oldest perennial and pasture sites compared to medium aged sites. This was traced back to adverse site processes such as the decay of clay humus complexes, leaching as well as poor pasture management. To assess sustainability of the agroecological management, a set of sustainability indicators was implemented including N balances, yearly N stock change and SOC stocks as well as total (TN) and available (PO4-P) soil nutrient stocks. Sustainability assessment took place based on individual land-uses and nutrients within each pilot study since soil fertility change did not show a consistent trend within one research area. Despite mainly negative soil nutrient balances, the impact on the yearly soil nutrient stock change was often negligible due to large soil nutrient pools. Annual and perennial crops of Yantzaza and pastures of San Lucas exceeded the threshold value of 1% for yearly TN stock losses. Yet, only annual crops in Yantzaza, having the highest yearly TN stock losses of 4.9%, also showed severe TN and SOC losses between 15-25% below those of the forest reference area. Therefore, the present agroecological management of annuals in Yantzaza is not sustainable which was also indicated by the abandonment of these sites not later than 5 years after forest conversion due to soil fertility decline. Hence, it is proposed to install an integrated agricultural management in annual crops of Yantzaza using nutrient recycling and fertilization for the replenishment of soil nutrient stocks. Nutrient balance studies indicated an average N-fertilizer application of more than 200 kg ha-1 a-1 for annual crops in El Tambo and low SOC stocks in soils of the colluvial foot slopes. Therefore, a laboratory incubation experiment was conducted to investigate fertilization effects of urea and newly introduced guinea pig manure on the microbial activity in colluvial and eroded soils of El Tambo. While urea fertilization induced an acceleration of SOM mineralization, a combined fertilization (urea + GPM) increased the amount of microbial biomass and provided mineral nitrogen for immediate plant uptake. SOM stocks in colluvial soils were 40% below those of eroded soils which was partly due to the positive priming effect after urea fertilization. A participatory appraisal with local farmers resulted in the adaptation of the present harvest residue management aiming at SOM maintenance in colluvial soils. Yet, the calculation of the potential for SOM replenishment indicated that only the maize residue biomass had the potential to compensate for SOM mineralization losses. Therefore, it is recommended to support SOM replenishment by additional organic inputs since SOM has to be maintained in the long-term to enable agricultural productivity.