This thesis presents a prism- and gap-based approach for modelling shopping destination choice in the Travel/Activity Scheduler for Household Agents (TASHA). The gap-location choice model improves upon TASHA’s existing destination choice model in 3 key ways: 1) Shifting from a zone-based to a disaggregate location choice model, 2) Categorizing shopping trips into meaningful types, and 3) Accounting for scheduling constraints in choice set generation and location choice. The model replicates gap and location choices reasonably well at an aggregate level and shows that a simple yet robust model can be developed with minimal changes to TASHA’s existing location choice model. The gap-based approach to destination choice is envisioned as a small but significant step towards a more comprehensive location choice model in a dynamic activity scheduling environment.

This thesis presents a prism- and gap-based approach for modelling shopping destination choice in the Travel/Activity Scheduler for Household Agents (TASHA). The gap-location choice model improves upon TASHA’s existing destination choice model in 3 key ways: 1) Shifting from a zone-based to a disaggregate location choice model, 2) Categorizing shopping trips into meaningful types, and 3) Accounting for scheduling constraints in choice set generation and location choice. The model replicates gap and location choices reasonably well at an aggregate level and shows that a simple yet robust model can be developed with minimal changes to TASHA’s existing location choice model. The gap-based approach to destination choice is envisioned as a small but significant step towards a more comprehensive location choice model in a dynamic activity scheduling environment.

Cette thèse est composée de trois essais, chacun contribuant à mieux comprendre la façon dont différents types de relations politiques affectent les stratégies d'expansion internationale et la performance des entreprises. Le premier essai examine le rôle des relations politiques comme modérateur de la relation entre les attributs du pays hôte et le choix d’investir dans ce pays par des entreprises. Nous examinons le cas des premiers investissements dans les pays concernés par des entreprises du secteur manufacturier au cours de la période 2003-2010. Les autres essais examinent le rôle des relations politiques comme antécédents directs des décisions et des performances des stratégies d'expansion internationale des entreprises. Le deuxième essai étudie l’influence des différents types de relations politiques dans l’ampleur et le profil de risque des investissements internationaux des entreprises. Enfin, le troisième essai analyse le rôle des connexions politiques en tant que facteur explicatif de la capacité des entreprises à accélérer le financement et le développement de leurs projets. Les deux derniers essais sont testés sur une base de données originale recensant les relations politiques dont bénéficient les plus grandes entreprises françaises au cours de la période 2003-2012. / This dissertation is composed of the three essays, each contributing to address part of the puzzle regarding how different types of political connections affect firms’ international expansion strategies and performance. The first essay examines how political connections moderate the relationship between host country attributes and international strategy in a sample of greenfield investments in manufacturing during the 2003-2010 period. The second and third essays examine how political connections directly impact a firm’s international expansion strategies and performance. The second essay investigates the role of different types of political connections on a firm’s international investments amount and risk profile. Finally, the third essay analyzes the role of political connections as an explanatory factor of firms’ ability to accelerate the provision of funding and development of their project finance-based investments. Both the latter two essays rely on an original dataset on various political connections enjoyed by the largest French firms during the 2003-2012 period.

Cette thèse se propose d’étudier le rôle de l’hétérogénéité des entreprises multinationales dans leurs stratégies d’investissements directs à l’étranger (IDE). Si de précédents travaux soulignent l’importance de la productivité individuelle des entreprises dans le fait de devenir une multinationale, peu évoquent l’hétérogénéité restante entre ces entreprises pour expliquer les différences de choix de mode d’entrée ou de motif d’implantation à l’étranger. A travers des approches théoriques et empiriques innovantes, basées sur l’utilisation de données confidentielles d’entreprises françaises, nous montrons que l’hétérogénéité des entreprises détermine chacun des trois aspects stratégiques détaillés dans cette thèse : Le taux de contrôle à l’étranger, le motif d’implantation et la structure du réseau de filiales. Plus précisément, la productivité et l'expérience de la firme favorisent un contrôle accru des filiales étrangères, leur importance relative dépendant du pays hôte. Ces caractéristiques sont également associées à une intégration plus profonde dans les chaînes de valeur mondiales, ainsi qu’à la constitution d'un réseau d’implantations plus original. Ces résultats permettent une meilleure compréhension des choix des multinationales, au-delà de l’apparente complexité des flux d’IDE. / This thesis examines the role of firms´ heterogeneity in the Foreign Direct Investments (FDIs) strategies. We already know firms’ heterogeneity to sharply distinguish between domestic firms, exporters and multinationals (MNEs). Yet, to what extent it impacts their foreign direct investments (FDIs) strategies among MNEs is rarely evoked, while several entry mode choices and FDI motives coexist. Mixing both theoretical and empirical innovating approaches using French firm-level data, the four chapters of this PhD dissertation reveal that the firm heterogeneity influences all of the three dimensions of strategies we review: foreign ownership mode, FDI motive and structure of the overall network of affiliates. Specifically, firm-level productivity and international experience foster deeper integration with a changing relative importance according to the host country. They are also associated with production motives and vertical integration into the global value chains. The more productive firms also display original affiliates’ network structure. These findings allow a better understanding of multinationals’ choices underneath the ``complex’’ global picture of FDI flows

In Germany, many universities have student tickets that are bargained for between student representatives and public transport companies, approved by referendum, and mandatory for all students. They allow the use of public transport at no additional cost. I analyze such a scenario in a theoretical model as an example of a flat-rate ticket for public transport which is implemented by majority decision. The mandatory character of the ticket reduces transaction costs like marketing and ticket inspection, reducing the ticket price and thus the students’ commuting expenses. However, there is a countervailing effect. Students face and rationally expect zero marginal monetary commuting costs, so that new students choose a place of residence which is relatively far from the university. This in turn raises the equilibrium ticket price. It may even be the case that students would be better off if such a ticket had never existed. Nonetheless, they always vote for it in referenda, because accepting the high price is optimal given their place of residence. After laying out the model, I analyze an optimal policy, which consists, for example, of subsidizing student dorms at an efficient distance to the city center.

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This dissertation consists of three empirical analyses examining the interactive and evolving nature of government regulations and how the regulated industries respond to the changes in the regulatory climate. Using the U.S. pulp and paper mills as an example, the three essays bring together a number of strands of literature in environmental economics and policy studies discussing how changes in the U.S. environmental policy are shaped by industry concerns and which strategies firms choose in order to adjust to the changes in policy. Essay 1 examines if, in addition to the standard input factors, indirect costs associated with tax and environmental policies affect papermakers’ ‘stay put’ investment decisions. The findings suggest that state environmental stringency has a negative impact on investments, but it is statistically insignificant and higher taxes do not deter investments. The Essay 2 studies whether voluntary abatement and prevention efforts at pulp and paper mills affects regulatory stringency they face. The analysis tests the hypotheses of ‘responsive regulation’ and whether regulators are driven by numerical pollution targets or budgetary constraints. The findings suggest that voluntary pollution abatement and prevention have greater impact on regulatory stringency than government budgets. Finally, Essay 3 analyzes the relationship between pollution prevention (P2) policy instruments and adoption of P2 modifications. The study tests the hypotheses of whether P2 policy instruments have positive impact on P2 adoptions. The results suggest that the policy instruments have different effects on different types of P2 modifications and that regulatory and political threat is a strong predictor of P2 adoptions.

本論文的研究主軸為本國市場效果的實證研究, 文章除驗證新貿易理論對創意商品的適用性, 並解析貿易成本與需求規模對本國市場效果的交互影響與其間的非線性關係。實證資料以經創意商品(creative goods)貿易為例。選擇創意商品,除因其具有文化創意特色,可歸為異質產品並且可凸顯無形貿易成本的影響, 且此類商品根據國際商品統一分類代碼(Harmonized system code ; HS code) 六位碼編組而成, 商品分類可謂細緻, 可避免如Schumacher and Siliverstovs (2006)以及Hallak (2010) 指出以總和商品可能相互抵消效果而致的合成謬誤。並且根據UNCTAD(2008) , 此類商品受景氣波動的干擾較少。由於全球創意商品貿易以經濟合作開發組織(The rganization for economic cooperation and development;OECD) 國家為主流, 且OECD 國家創意商品貿易具有產業內貿易特性, 故而樣本國家以OECD 國家為主, 並於林德效果檢測時擴及至全球創意商品貿易。 實證估計式以Hsu et al. (2012) 推導的引力模型結構式為理論基礎, 加入一個由貿易成本與相對需求組成的非線性本國市場效果設定項,驗證本國市場效果的相關假說。此一本國市場效果設定項除具有理論基礎之外, 並具有實證意涵與對應的假說檢定, 可為實證工作提供重要基石。 估計式中除加入例行的需求規模、貿易成本以及控制貿易成本對商品流動的多邊阻力(multilateral resistance; MR)外,並加入需求與貿易成本的非線性交互作用項。相較過去文獻如Feenstra et al. (1998, 2001) 或Hanson and Xiang (2004) 側重需求與貿易型態關係的確認, 加入此項不 但可以匡正實證估計是錯誤設定造成估計偏誤, 得以正確驗證本國市場效果, 並且能解析本國市場效果成因的作用機制與政策意涵。 實證過程圍繞兩個命題: 命題1 : 如果本國市場效果存在, 但引力模型忽略或未控制本國市場效果, 將使估計產生偏誤。 命題2 : 相對需求與貿易成本對本國市場效果具有非線性影響關係。相對需求增加, 本國市場效果將強化。相對需求對本國市場效果的邊際影響, 會隨相對需求上升及貿易成本下降而遞減。貿易成本增加, 本國市場效果將弱化。隨著貿易成本愈高其對本國市場效果的邊際影響力遞減。 根據2000年至2005年OECD創意商品貿易資料的實證結果,除確認本國市場效果顯著外,各項相關假說檢定並與Hsu et al. (2012) 的理論預期一致。包括實證估計式忽略本國市場效果設定項, 將使估計結果產生偏誤; 貿易成本、相對需求對本國市場效果以顯著的非線性方式交互影響本國市場效果。而由比較靜態分析的實務案例, 再次確認推論與實證結果的一致性。 為進一步檢測命題2 , 確認相對需求與貿易成本對本國市場效果的非線性影響關係。在此以貿易雙方的相對需求與相對貿易強度進行分量迴歸(quantile regression model ; QR) 估計, 捕捉不同貿易強度相對需求的非線性變化特徵, 並檢定相對需求的邊際影響是否隨不同分量而有顯著的差異。在此, 除創意商品貿易資料外, 並加入OECD 會員國的國際貿易商品統計(international trade by commodity Statistics;ITCS) 國際商品統一分類編碼(HS Code) 二位碼的製造業商品貿易資料為估計樣本。實證結果再次應證相對需求與貿易成本對本國市場效果的非線性影響關係, 並且不論是根據分量迴歸檢定結果, 或以估計係數的信賴區間圖示, 都顯示不同分量下, 相對需求對本國市場效果的邊際影響確實存在非線性影響關係, 並且貿易強度與相對需求間呈現正向的變化關係, 約有90% 以上的商品類別, 相對需求的邊際變動軌跡呈現遞增型式, 符合理論預期的顯著非線性變化關係。 最後以偏好相似理論Linder (1961) ,即林德假說(Linder hppothesis) ; 以需求結構因素解析國際產業內貿易之可能原因。林德假說提出重疊需求(overlapping demand) 的概念, 認為影響一國需求結構的主要因素是所得水準, 即一國的人均所得水準決定了該國特定的偏好模式, 若兩國之間收入水準相似, 則兩國偏好模式可能愈相似, 需求結構也將愈相近, 也就是說重疊需求的量愈大, 從而兩國間貿易量也就愈大。反之, 兩國所得水準相差越大, 需求結構差異也就越大, 從而相互間貿易強度也就越低。本文以Hallak (2010)之一般均衡理論與期建構的實證結構式為基礎, 以UNCTAD(2008) 全球及OECD 國家創意商品貿易資料配合分量迴歸估計, 結果顯示林德假說確實適用於解釋OECD 以及全球創意商品貿易現象, 並且根據貿易流量高低之不同分量係數檢定結果也顯示林德效果確實存有差異, 不同分量下林德效果的邊際效果確實有顯著差異。 / This thesis proposes and extends theory-based gravity equations to test the presence of the ‘home market effect’ in the global trade in creative goods. Traditional neoclassical models based on comparative advantage suggest that, all else equal, a country with idiosyncratically strong demand for a good will result in it being an importer of that good. Contrary to traditional trade theory, the home market effect emphasizes the advantages of a large home market as a foundation for exports of a good. The HME is the most obvious characteristic of new trade theory. The home market effect is caused by increasing returns to scale and trade costs. When it is more profitable for a firm to operate in a single country because of increasing returns to scale, the firm will base itself in the country where most of its products are consumed in order to minimize trade cost costs. The home market effect implies a link between market size and exports. Here, we imply the framework derived from Hsu’s (2012) model, in which an HME term is appended to the traditional gravity model to capture the home market effect. It is different from Feenstra (1998, 2001) and Hanson (2004) who focused on the linkage between the relative size and the direction of trade. The HME term consists of both the relative market size of the domestic market versus the relative proximity to foreign markets, trade costs and their interactions. It means that except for the traditional gravity equation that includes regular variables such as market size, trade cost and multilateral resistance, which are used to control the obstruction of trade costs on goods traded as the regressors, the extended gravity model appends an HME term which is based on a theoretical foundation that can guide the hypothesis testing and own its empirical content, and can provide a fundamental guideline for empirical study as well as quantitative scenarios. The extended model can reinvestigate the adaptations to the new trade theory for the trade in creative goods, and analyze and infer the intersection and non-linear relationship for the trade cost and relative market size. We apply the bilateral trade in creative goods in OECD countries as an empirical case study. The creative goods have certain characteristics. The first is that they contain creative and cultural features which can be treated as differentiated goods so that they can withstand the impact of the trade cost. They consist of an HS code of 6 digits, and the classification is sophisticated so that it can avert the fallacious synthesis of Schumacher (2006) and Hallak (2010). Besides, the creative goods fluctuate smoothly as the business cycle is depressed (UNCTAD, 2008). The empirical issues surround two hypotheses: Hypothesis One: There will be biased estimates if there exists an HME, but it has been ignored or has been not controlled well in empirical studies. Hypothesis Two: There exists a non-linear relationship between relative market size and trade costs with the HME. A rise in the relative market size will strengthen the HME and the marginal effect of the relative market size will decline if the relative market size increases or the trade cost decreases. Trade cost increases will weaken the HME and the marginal effect of the trade cost will go up if the trade cost falls. The estimation results of applying the data for the OECD trade in creative goods from 2000 to 2005 show that the HME exists and thus confirm the hypotheses mentioned above. In order to investigate Hypothesis Two more precisely, we apply quantile regression (QR) to re-examine and capture the non-linear relationship between the relative market size and trade intensity. Furthermore, we adopt bootstrapping, a non-parametric approach used to construct statistical inferences, to test whether the marginal effect of the relative market size on trade intensity will be significantly different for different percentiles. One advantage of QR, relative to OLS (ordinary least squares), is that the QR estimates are more robust against outliers in the response measurements. However, the main attraction of quantile regression goes beyond that. In practice, we often prefer using different measures of central tendency and statistical dispersion to obtain a more comprehensive analysis of the relationship between variables. QR has been attributed to the complexity of interactions between different factors leading to data with an unequal variation in one variable for different ranges of another variable. We employ UNCTAD (2008) trade in creative goods and ITCS databanks for the classification of manufacturing goods at the HS code 2-digit level for OECD countries. The results support the non-linear relationship between relative market size and trade intensity, and confirm that the marginal effects of relative market size on trade intensity are obviously different and show they are positively related, so that the higher the ratio of relative market size, the greater that the intensity of bilateral trade will be. Contrary to the HME focus on the supply approach, the Linder hypothesis is based on the demand approach used to examine the intra-industry trade. The Linder hypothesis is a conjecture based on trade patterns, that proposes that the more similar the demand structures of countries are, the more the countries will trade with each other. Furthermore, international trade will also be vigorous if there are similar demand structures between two countries, even if they possess similar factor endowments and technologies. We also apply the data for trade in creative goods but extend the sample from the OECD countries to the global countries. Based on the general equilibrium framework of Hallak (2010), we use Newey-West estimators and QR as empirical methodology. Examinations of the Linder hypothesis have led to the observation of a “Linder effect” that is consistent with the hypothesis. Econometric tests of the hypothesis usually serve as a proxy for the demand structure in a country based on its per capita income (per capita GDP which is denoted as yit, where i stands for the country index, and t is for time). It is convenient to assume that the closer are the levels of per capita GDP, the closer will be the consumer preferences. Here, we use the gaps in income between countries such as (ln yit-ln yjt), ln |yit-yjt| and product in income such as ln (yit*yjt) as Linder effects. Neither the results in the income gap or income product show that the Linder hypothesis explains the trade in creative goods for the OECD and Global countries well, and the marginal effects for the Linder effect for different levels of trade intensity are dissimilar. Thus the larger the income gap, the more sensitive is the trade intensity.

La présente thèse de doctorat a pour objectif d'examiner la place et l'importance de l'accessibilité dans les modèles de choix de localisation des ménages et des entreprises. Ces modèles sont deux éléments clés de la conception et la construction des modèles d'interaction transport – usages du sol. Il s’agit, plus précisément, d’analyser l’effet de divers choix méthodologiques d’un point de vue théorique et empirique afin de donner des réponses à des interrogations tout aussi théoriques, méthodologiques, empiriques et politiques. Pour y répondre, quatre articles de recherche constituent le travail principal de la thèse. Les quatre travaux produits ont pour objet l’étude de l’aire urbaine lyonnaise et utilisant des modèles de choix discrets pour expliquer les choix de localisation.Dans le premier article, l’objectif est d’analyser l’effet de la mesure d’accessibilité sur les résultats du modèle de choix de localisation résidentielle. Alors que l'accessibilité a toujours été importante au niveau théorique, certains travaux relativisent son importance au niveau empirique, considérant que d'autres attribues de localisation sont plus influentes. Cet article analyse si différentes méthodes de mesure de l'accessibilité peuvent conduire à des résultats divergents. La conclusion principale estque l'accessibilité est une variable indispensable pour les modèles de choix localisation résidentielle et ce quelle que soit la mesure. Sans la variable de l’accessibilité, le modèle donne des résultats incohérents.Dans le deuxième article, l’objectif est d’analyser les différences de préférences en matière d’accessibilité entre les entreprises nouvellement créées et les entreprises qui se relocalisent. L'accessibilité est l'un des facteurs les plus importants du choix de localisation d’une entreprise. Cependant, même si cela semble intuitif, les travaux analysant les différences entre les créations et les relocalisations sont peu nombreux. En utilisant des données pour huit secteurs d’activités économiques et en confrontant les créations aux relocalisations, les résultats démontrent que l’effet de l’accessibilité diffère d’un secteur économique à l’autre. Cette différence dépend du type d’activité économique du secteur mais aussi du type d’accessibilité.Dans le troisième article, l’objectif est d’évaluer la différence d’impact de l’accessibilité sur les choix de localisation des entreprises du secteur des services aux entreprises. En distinguant les services entre Front Office et Back Office selon leur fonction dans un modèle de choix de localisation, les résultats démontrent que l'effet de l'accessibilité diffère d'un sous-secteur économique à l'autre. Dans le quatrième papier, l'objectif est d'analyser l'évolution temporelle des préférences en matièred'accessibilité des choix résidentiels. De plus en plus de ménages choisissent d’acheter une résidence en banlieue, profitant ainsi de l’augmentation de l’accessibilité. En opposition, les jeunes ménages, appelés aussi «millennials», choisissent de louer dans les zones centrales. Distinguant les locataires des propriétaires, l'analyse des élasticités de périodes 1999, 2006 et 2013 confirme l'intuition initiale qui est que les locataires sont plus sensibles à l'accessibilité à l'emploi. Plus important encore, lapréférence des locataires évolue et croit au cours de la période analysée, alors que celle des propriétaires évolue de façon inverse. Nous suggérons aux planificateurs et aux concepteurs de modèles d’intégrer la dynamique temporelle dans leurs modèles afin d'anticiper au mieux les tendances futures. / This PhD thesis has as objective to examine the place and the importance of accessibility in location choice models of households and firms, two key construction elements of Land-Use Transport Interaction models. More specifically, the aim is to analyse the effect of various methodological choices from a theoretical and empirical point of view in order to give some answers to theoretical, methodological, empirical and policy issues. Having as a case study the urban area of Lyon and using discrete models to explain the location choices of households and firms, four research papers comprise the main work of this dissertation.In the first paper, the objective was to analyse the effect of the accessibility measure on the results of residential location choice model. While accessibility has always been important at theoretical level, at empirical level, some works questioned its importance, considering other location characteristics as more influential. This paper examines whether different accessibility measurement methods can lead to divergent results. The conclusion is that accessibility is an indispensable variable for residential location choice models and the conclusion remains the same whatever is the measure. Without accessibility, the model gives inconsistent results. Complex accessibility measures give better results, especially for predictions, but simple measures are also relevant for residential location choices modelling.In the second paper, the objective was to analyse the differences of accessibility preferences between new and relocating firms. Accessibility is one of the most important attributes of a location choice of an economic establishment. However, even if it seems intuitive, works analysing any differences between creations and relocations are scarce. Using data from eighteconomic sectors and comparing creations to relocations, the results demonstrate that the effect of accessibility differs between in the same economic sector.In the third paper, the objective was to evaluate the difference of the accessibility impact on the location choices of firms of the business services sector. Distinguishing between Front Office and Back Office business services in a location choice model, the results demonstrate that the effect of accessibility differs between economic subsectors.In the fourth paper, the objective was to analyse the temporal evolution of the preferences for accessibility for residential choices. More and more people choose to buy a residence at the suburbs taking advantage of the accessibility increase. At the same time, young households, the so called millennials, choose to rent in central areas. Distinguishing between renters andowners, the analysis of the elasticities for 1999, 2006 and 2013 confirm the initial intuition. Renters were always more sensitive to accessibility to employment. More importantly, renters show an increasing preference for accessibility during the analysis period, while the owners the opposite. We suggest that planners and model developers should integrate temporal dynamics into their models in order to anticipate better future tendencies.

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