Die vorliegende Arbeit besteht aus vier Aufsätzen, die sich mit der Modellierung von Markenwahlverhalten und Markentreue beschäftigen. Der erste Aufsatz gibt eine Einführung in das Nested Logit Modell und weist auf die Existenz von zwei unterschiedlichen Spezifikationen hin. Das utility maximization nested logit (UMNL) und das non-normalized nested logit (NNNL) Modell besitzen unterschiedliche Eigenschaften, die die Schätzergebnisse beeinflussen. Mit einer Simulationsstudie werden die Konsequenzen der Verwendung verschiedener Softwarepakete demonstriert. Außerdem wird gezeigt, dass nur die UMNL Spezifikation bei Auferlegung einer Parameterrestriktion mit der Zufallsnutzentheorie konform ist. Der zweite Aufsatz untersucht anhand von realen Haushaltspaneldaten den Erfolg einer Familienmarkenstrategie. Die Signaling Theorie liefert einen Rahmen für die dem Markenwahlverhalten zugrunde liegenden psychologischen Prozesse zur Entstehung und Erklärung von produktkategorieübergreifender Markentreue. In einer empirischen Studie wird untersucht, inwieweit in einer Kategorie markentreue Kunden dieser Marke auch in anderen Produktkategorien treu sind. Es wird ein Markentreue-Hebel-Index entwickelt. Im dritten Aufsatz stehen die psychologischen Determinanten von kategorieübergreifenden Zusammenhängen im Markenwahlverhalten im Mittelpunkt. In einer empirischen Studie wird die Risikoaversion als entscheidender Bestimmungsfaktor von kategorieübergreifender Markentreue untersucht. Die konsumentenspezifische Risikoaversion wird dabei über Innovativeness und Status Quo Bias erfasst. Im vierten Aufsatz wird das Hybride Wahlmodell einem breiten Marketingpublikum vorgestellt. Klassische Wahlmodelle gehen davon aus, dass das beobachtbare Verhalten das Resultat eines nicht spezifizierten Evaluationsprozesses des Individuums ist. Der kausalanalytische Ansatz hingegen erlaubt die Spezifikation nicht direkt messbarer Faktoren als latente Variablen und kann somit Wahlmodelle sinnvoll ergänzen. / This thesis is composed of four essays that pick up topics in brand choice and brand loyalty modeling. The first essay gives an introduction to the nested logit model and points attention to the existence of two different specifications. The utility maximization nested logit (UMNL) model and the non-normalized nested logit (NNNL) model have different properties which impact the estimation results. In a simulation study, the consequences of the usage of different software packages for model estimation on the estimation results is demonstrated. It is also shown that only the UMNL specification with an imposed parameter restriction is consistent with the underlying random utility theory. The second essay investigates the success of an umbrella branding strategy using household panel data. Signaling theory provides a framework for the underlying psychological processes in consumers'' brand choice behavior and can contribute in the formation and explanation of loyalty to the brand in multiple categories. An empirical study determines whether there is a tendency for loyal consumers from one product category to be loyal to the same brand in other product categories as well. Therefore, a cross-category brand loyalty leverage index is developed. In the third essay, consumer-specific psychological determinants of cross-category relations between brand loyal choice decisions are discussed. In an empirical study, the concept of risk aversion is considered as the key determinant of cross-category brand loyalty. Consumers'' risk aversion is derived from their innovativeness and status quo bias. In the fourth essay, the hybrid choice model is introduced to the broad marketing audience. Traditional choice models assume that observable behavior results from an unspecified evaluation process of the observed individual. The causal-analytic approach offers the possibility to specify not directly measurable factors as latent variables, and can thus reasonably supplement choice models.

Made available in DSpace on 2016-10-13T14:10:07Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Pedro Augusto Godeguez Silva.pdf: 629377 bytes, checksum: c755d498d29ea6605a9c285f4a0aa089 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2013-12-11 / Direct investment in the sanitation sector is a phenomenon that deserves attention due to these market failures, and therefore the regulation through public policies, among other variables of institutional character, in company decisions. This work aims to identify the determinants of the choice of destination countries among emerging countries, to direct investments in sanitation. Based on the theoretical framework that combines economic approaches to internationalization of companies with the microeconomics of industrial organization, also inserting elements of new institutional economics, specific hypotheses were generated regarding these determinants. Raise the hypotheses that foreign direct investment in sanitation in developing countries is related to the level of economic development, the existing infrastructure and institutional stability influences the choice of countries. To test the hypotheses, we propose an econometric approach, using a binary choice model (LOGIT) and to assess the dynamic effects, a model of LOGIT panel. Are used data from the PPI (Private Participation in Infrastructure), the World Bank and selected economic and institutional indicators, particularly on the institutional environment indices. As a result, in addition to confirming the proposed hypothesis, this study found a relationship of inverted "U" between per capita GDP and the likelihood of receiving direct investment in sanitation, suggesting a possible behavior of "crowding out" investment in some countries. / O investimento direto no setor de saneamento básico é um fenômeno que merece atenção devido às presentes falhas de mercado, e portanto, a regulação por meio das políticas públicas, entre outras variáveis de caráter institucional, nas decisões empresariais. Este trabalho tem como objetivo identificar os determinantes da escolha de países-destino, entre os países emergentes, para investimentos diretos em saneamento básico. Com base no referencial teórico que combina as abordagens econômicas da internacionalização de empresas com a microeconomia da organização industrial, inserindo também elementos da nova economia institucional, foram geradas hipóteses específicas quanto a esses determinantes. Levantam-se as hipóteses de que o investimento direto estrangeiro em saneamento nos países emergentes está relacionado ao nível de desenvolvimento econômico, à infraestrutura existente e a estabilidade institucional influencia na escolha dos países. Para testar as hipóteses, propõe-se uma abordagem econométrica, com a utilização de um modelo de escolha binária (LOGIT) e, para avaliar os efeitos dinâmicos, um modelo de LOGIT em painel. São utilizados dados da base PPI (Private Participation in Infrastructure), do Banco Mundial e indicadores econômicos e institucionais selecionados, particularmente índices sobre o ambiente institucional. Como resultado, além da confirmação das hipóteses propostas, este estudo encontrou uma relação de U invertido entre PIB per capita e a probabilidade de receber investimento direto em saneamento, sugerindo um possível comportamento de crowding out deste investimento em alguns países.

Neste trabalho foram revisados os principais modelos, para a avaliação do risco de crédito e para o provisionamento de perdas com clientes, concluindo-se com uma proposta de adoção de um modelo estatístico, com o objetivo de medir o risco associado ao financiamento e empréstimo a clientes, com o conseqüente impacto na mensuração dos ativos. Sem o objetivo de exaurir o assunto, foram adotados os passos relacionados a seguir para o desenvolvimento do tema até a proposição final. Na introdução, são feitas as justificativas sobre o tema, qual a questão problema associada ao tema e os desafios da contabilidade quanto à mensuração dos ativos. Em relação à gestão de riscos, são relacionados os tipos de riscos em geral, detalhado o risco de crédito em particular e avaliados os modelos de concessão de crédito. Sobre a constituição da Provisão para Devedores Duvidosos, foram pesquisados os principais autores de contabilidade e de finanças, onde se constatou proposições semelhantes, que podem ser resumidas em 4 modelos de provisionamento para Perdas com Devedores Duvidosos: 1. Baixa – "Write-off"; 2. Percentual sobre as vendas; 3. Percentual sobre o montante de contas a receber; 4. Idade da carteira – "aging". Em seguida são analisadas as correlações entre os modelos de previsão de insolvência e as perdas com crédito, onde é possível identificar que os modelos de insolvência são úteis para a concessão do crédito, mas pouco utilizados para a estimativa da perda provável com devedores duvidosos. Em 21 de dezembro de 1999, o Banco Central do Brasil, emitiu a Resolução 2.682, na qual recomenda às instituições financeiras que alterem suas metodologias de provisionamento para perdas com devedores duvidosos. O Banco Central, entretanto, não indica qual modelo utilizar, deixando a cargo de cada instituição o desenvolvimento dos modelos. Utilizando a norma do Banco Central como referência, e procurando um embasamento científico para a constituição da PDD, é proposto um modelo para a sua constituição, modelo esse testado e avaliado, tanto em conformidade às normas do Banco Central, como com orientação gerencial. Para tanto, foi desenvolvido um modelo estatístico, aplicando-se a técnica da regressão logística, a 202 clientes de uma instituição financeira, onde foi possível concluir-se que o uso do modelo, na constituição da Provisão para Devedores Duvidosos, poderá trazer benefícios na mensuração do real valor dos investimentos em contas a receber. / This project aims at evaluating the used models and proposing the adoption of new models, for the Allowance for Doubtful Accounts, with the objective of measuring the risk related to customers financing and loan activities, and the resulting impact in assets measurements. In order to achieve this goal and try not to over exploit the subject, the following steps related to the development of the theme were adopted. In the introduction the theme is explained; the main issue associated to the theme and the challenges the accounting has to face concerning the assets measurements. As for the risk management the general kinds of risks are described, particularly the credit risk and the credit concession models are evaluated. Referring to the Allowance for Doubtful Accounts constitution, most meaningful authors in the field of Accounting and Finance were researched and similar propositions underlined their writings; that can be summarized in 4 allowance models for Doubtful Accounts. 1. Write off; 2. Percentage over the sales; 3. Percentage over receivables; 4. Aging. Then the correlations between the models of insolvency prediction and the credit losses are analyzed where it is possible to verify that the insolvency models are useful for credit concession, though not very much used for estimating probable loss with Doubtful Accounts. The Central Bank of Brazil (Banco Central do Brasil) issued the act number 2682 on the 21st of December, 1999, that urges all financial institutions to change their methodologies of Allowance for Doubtful Accounts. The Central Bank, however, does not indicate the model to be used, leaving the task of developing the models to each institution. Based on the policy of Central Bank and keeping a scientific approach to the constitution of Allowance for Doubtful Accounts, a model for their constitution in the portfolio is proposed. Such model is tested and evaluated not only, according to the rules of Central Bank of Brazil, but also in terms of management orientation. Having this purpose in mind a statistic model was developed, using LOGIT Regression applied to 202 customers of a financial institution where it was possible to come to the conclusion that the use of the model in the constitution of the Allowance for Doubtful Accounts can bring benefits in measuring the real value of investments in Receivables.

Apresenta-se um procedimento para estimativa da matriz origem-destino (O/D) a partir de um modelo de escolha discreta em combinação com uma matriz O/D de transporte público, a qual pode ser estimada de maneira relativamente fácil e rápida. O modelo de escolha discreta utilizado para realizar a divisão modal é o modelo logit multinomial. A calibração do modelo logit é realizada com base em 505 observações e considerando três situações: a população de viajantes sem segmentação, com segmentação segundo posse de automóvel no domicílio, e com segmentação segundo a distância de viagem. Analisa-se a precisão da estimativa do número de viagens quando as zonas de controle que formam a área de estudo são divididas segundo o critério de distância de acesso às linhas de ônibus. Na verificação realizada são empregados dados obtidos da pesquisa domiciliar realizada na cidade de Bauru, SP. Os erros cometidos na estimativa são medidos e comparados com os resultados obtidos na pesquisa domiciliar sem expansão. O trabalho demostrou experimentalmente que o procedimento proposto é uma alternativa viável para se obter a distribuição de viagens e, portanto, para determinar a matriz O/D. / A procedure is presented for estimating an origin-destination (O/D) matrix using a discrete choice model jointly with a public transport O/D matrix; the latter being relatively easy and fast to obtain. A multinomial logit discrete choice model is used to determine the mode split of travelers among several available modes. The model is estimated using a sample of 505 observations chosen from a household 0/D survey in the city of Bauru, state of Sao Paulo. This survey is used throughout to verify the results of the proposed methodology. Three different models are considered: one without segmentation of the population, one with segmentation according to car ownership and one with segmentation according to travel distance. An examination is made of the changes on the level of precision of the number of trips estimated with the division of the control zones that conform the study area; the aforementioned division was carried out on the basis of an access distance to the bus network criterion. The estimation errors are measured and compared to the unexpanded O/D survey results. The research shows empirically that the proposed procedure can be used to obtain the distribution of trips and hence to determine an aggregate O/D matrix.

Submitted by PPG Ecologia e Evolu??o da Biodiversidade (eebpg.ciencias@pucrs.br) on 2018-10-16T17:56:11Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Tese - Pereira - Joana.pdf: 10961538 bytes, checksum: b96f5fee6d02e741124bc5a31abdb086 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Sheila Dias (sheila.dias@pucrs.br) on 2018-10-18T12:48:41Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 Tese - Pereira - Joana.pdf: 10961538 bytes, checksum: b96f5fee6d02e741124bc5a31abdb086 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2018-10-18T13:37:00Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Tese - Pereira - Joana.pdf: 10961538 bytes, checksum: b96f5fee6d02e741124bc5a31abdb086 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2018-09-24 / Coordena??o de Aperfei?oamento de Pessoal de N?vel Superior - CAPES / Distribution models are considered important tools in biogeography and ecology studies as they allow spatial and temporal extrapolation of species distribution from a set of occurrence data points as function of environmental predictors. In this study, we aimed to propose logistic distribution models for 50 fish species along the Sinos River Basin (Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil), by using altitude and basin area as geomorphological descriptors. Upstream-downstream richness model for entire basin by using multiple and logistic regression was also presented. The dataset derived from several sampling programs performed from 1998 to 2014, comprising 86 sampled locations with fish collections with gillnets, electric fishing or both. Two logistic models were constructed using environmental data of altitude and upstream basin area, testing linear (Model 1) and nonlinear (Model 2) factor responses for each species. Performance of the two models was evaluated using sensitivity, specificity, AUC (Area Under Curve) and TSS (True Skill Statistical). The adjusted models presented sensitivity values ranging from 47,1 to 99,8, specificity from 49,94 to 98,10, AUC from 0,75 to 0,99 and TSS from 0,26 to 0,98. The linear response model, although simpler, proved to be effective in predicting species distribution, as observed in previous studies. The basin area had a positive effect on the distribution of most species according to the linear model, although this was not verified for nonlinear models due to the interaction between variables. In general, the nonlinear model presented higher performance values for the evaluated metrics for the majority of species, but suffered from overfitting and a patchy distribution estimation. The species richness increased along a longitudinal gradient, presenting its maximum value downstream of the basin. Of the four estimated richness models, models with six variables were the ones with the lowest residual variation. / Modelos de distribui??o s?o considerados como ferramentas importantes em estudos de biogeografia e ecologia, pois permitem a extrapola??o espacial e temporal da distribui??o de esp?cies a partir de um conjunto de dados de ocorr?ncia em fun??o de preditores ambientais. Neste estudo, objetivamos propor modelos de distribui??o log?stica para 50 esp?cies de peixes ao longo da bacia do rio dos Sinos (Rio Grande do Sul, Brasil), utilizando altitude e ?rea da bacia como descritores geomorfol?gicos. Modelos de riqueza montante-jusante para toda a bacia usando regress?o m?ltipla e log?stica tamb?m foram propostos. O conjunto de dados derivou de v?rios programas de amostragem realizados de 1998 a 2014, compreendendo 86 locais amostrados com coleta de peixes com redes de emalhar, pesca el?trica ou ambos. Dois modelos log?sticos foram constru?dos utilizando dados ambientais de altitude e ?rea de bacia a montante, testando respostas lineares (Modelo 1) e n?o lineares (Modelo 2) para cada esp?cie. O desempenho dos modelos foi avaliado usando sensibilidade, especificidade, AUC (Area Under Curve) e TSS (True Skill Statistical). Os modelos ajustados apresentaram valores de sensibilidade variando de 47,1 a 99,8, especificidade de 49,94 a 98,10, AUC de 0,75 a 0,99 e TSS de 0,26 a 0,98. O modelo de resposta linear, embora mais simples, mostrou-se eficaz na predi??o da distribui??o de esp?cies, como observado em estudos anteriores. A ?rea da bacia teve um efeito positivo na distribui??o da maioria das esp?cies de acordo com o modelo linear, embora isso n?o tenha sido verificado para os modelos n?o lineares devido ? intera??o entre as vari?veis. Em geral, o modelo n?o linear apresentou valores de desempenho mais altos para as m?tricas avaliadas para a maioria das esp?cies, mas sofreu de hiperajuste e uma estimativa de distribui??o fragmentada. A riqueza de esp?cies aumentou ao longo de um gradiente longitudinal, apresentando seu valor m?ximo a jusante da bacia. Dos quatro modelos estimados de riqueza, os modelos com seis vari?veis foram os que apresentaram a menor amplitude de varia??o dos res?duos.

Travel demand Management (TDM) focuses on improving the efficiency of the transportation system through changing traveler's travel behavior rather than expanding the infrastructure. An employer based integrated TDM program generally includes strategies designed to change the commuter's travel behavior in terms of mode choice, time choice and travel frequency. Research on TDM has focused on the evaluation of the effectiveness of TDM program to report progress and find effective strategies. Another research area, identified as high-priority research need by TRB TDM innovation and research symposium 1994 [Transportation Research Circular, 1994], is to develop tools to predict the impact of TDM strategies in the future. These tools are necessary for integrating TDM into the transportation planning process and developing realistic expectations. Most previous research on TDM impact evaluation was worksite-based, retrospective, and focused on only one or more aspects of TDM strategies. That research is generally based on survey data with small sample size due to lack of detailed information on TDM programs and promotions and commuter travel behavior patterns, which cast doubts on its findings because of potential small sample bias and self-selection bias. Additionally, the worksite-based approach has several limitations that affect the accuracy and application of analysis results. Based on the Washington State Commute Trip Reduction (CTR) dataset, this dissertation focuses on analyzing the participation rates of compressed work week schedules and telecommuting for the CTR affected employees, modeling the determinants of commuter's compressed work week schedules and telecommuting choices, and analyzing the quantitative impacts of an integrated TDM program on individual commuter's mode choice. The major findings of this dissertation may have important policy implications and help TDM practitioners better understand the effectiveness of the TDM strategies in terms of person trip and vehicle trip reduction. The models developed in this dissertation may be used to evaluate the impacts of an existing TDM program. More importantly, they may be incorporated into the regional transportation model to reflect the TDM impacts in the transportation planning process.

The aim of this thesis is to provide an overview of methods used in cause-of-death mortality analysis and to demonstrate the application on real data. In Chapter 1 we present the continuous model based on the force of mortality and review the approach using copula functions. In Chapter 2 we focus on the multinomial logit model formulated for cause-specific mortality data, discuss life tables construction and derive life expectancy. In Chapter 3 we apply the multinomial logit model on the data from Czech Statistical Office. We identify the regression model, check its assumptions, present the outputs including the fitted life expectancy, and predicted mortality rates. Later in Chapter 3 we consider several stress scenarios in order to demonstrate the impact of shocked mortality rates on the life expectancy.

This study uses conjoint analysis to examine the preferences of buyers for Bureau of Land Management (BLM) wild horses based on physical attributes of wild horses and individual characteristics of the buyers. Generalized ordered logit models and multinomial logit models are used to study the impact of the buyers’ demographic characteristics such as age, gender, knowledge about wild horse care, and number of wild horses previously adopted on physical attributes of the horses such as color, age, height, training status, temperament, conformation, and unique markings. Using a choice experiment, taken together, these attributes determine buyer’s preferences for a wild horse. This study reveals that characteristics of buyers have significant effects on their preferences for wild horses. Their gender, age, knowledge about wild horse care, and the number of horses previously adopted influence the importance that buyers place on physical attributes of a wild horse in their decision to purchase a wild horse.

La naturaleza potencialmente anticompetitiva de las prácticas impartidas desde las organizaciones de profesionales ha sido racionalizada por la literatura económica y ha ocupado un lugar no menor en la agenda de los organismos de defensa de la competencia. Sin embargo, la economía empírica carece de estudios sobre el ejercicio profesional autorregulado. Este trabajo relaciona los mercados de servicios profesionales con los modelos de diferenciación vertical y emplea un modelo Logit Mixto para evaluar la conducta del desempeño médico en Argentina. La evidencia hallada sugiere la existencia de algún acuerdo de precios. / The potentially anticompetitive nature of some practices driven by professional organizations has been approached in economic literature and appears as an important issue in the antitrust organism's agenda. However, empirical economics lacks of a self-regulated professionals analysis. This work relates the market for professional services with vertical product differentiation models and uses a Mixed Logit model to assess the medical profession behavior in Argentina. The evidence suggests the existence of a price arrangement. / Tesis de la Maestría en Economía, bajo la dirección de Fernando Navajas, de la Facultad de Ciencias Económicas de la Universidad Nacional de La Plata.

New Zealand is internationally renowned for having some of the finest and most challenging trout fishing in the world. However, due to continuing development and angling pressure many fishing sites are showing signs of environmental degradation and over fishing. This trend is almost certain to continue into the future given continued population and economic growth. Understanding the determinants of site choice, preference heterogeneity and anglers’ substitution patterns is fundamentally important to fishery managers who have the difficult task of maintaining quality angling experiences on a number of fishing sites, managing angling pressure and maintaining license sales. Recent advances in simulation techniques and computational power have improved the capability of discrete choice models to reveal preference heterogeneity and complex substitution patterns among individuals. This thesis applies and evaluates a number of state-of-the-art discrete choice models to study angler site choice in New Zealand. Recreation specialisation theory is integrated into the analysis to enhance the behavioural representation of the statistical models. A suite of models is presented throughout the empirical portion of this thesis. These models demonstrate different ways and degrees of explaining preference heterogeneity as well as identifying anglers’ substitution patterns. The results show that North Canterbury anglers’ preferences vary considerably. Resource disturbances such as riparian margin erosion, reduced water visibility and declines in catch rates can cause significant declines in angler use of affected sites, and at the same time non-proportional increases in the use of unaffected sites. Recreation specialisation is found to be closely related to the types of fishing site conditions, experiences and regulations preferred by anglers. Anglers’ preference intensities for fishing site attributes, such as catch rates, vary across different types of fishing sites. This location specific preference heterogeneity is found to be related to specialisation. Overall, the empirical findings indicate that conventional approaches to modelling angler site choice which do not incorporate a strong understanding of angler preference heterogeneity can lead to poorly representative models and suboptimal management and policy outcomes.