Universidade Federal do Cearà / Desde o ano de 2000 que as cooperativas de crÃdito brasileiras tÃm experimentado um crescimento contÃnuo no nÃmero de novas unidades. De outro modo os bancos brasileiros tem diminuÃdo em quantidade pelo processo de aquisiÃÃo e concentraÃÃo. Este crescimento das cooperativas pode estar associado com um maior risco para os associados. Este trabalho investiga as causas de falÃncias das cooperativas de crÃdito dos profissionais de saÃde no Brasil. Para tanto busca fornecer um modelo de alerta precoce que informe aos gestores e supervisores do risco de insolvÃncia, fazendo uso de uma anÃlise de regressÃo logÃstica de Ãndices financeiros. Foi estimado um modelo de prediÃÃo de insolvÃncia que fosse parcimonioso e acurado. Este trabalho provà informaÃÃes adicionais a outros estudos brasileiros sobre falÃncia em cooperativas de crÃdito, de trÃs modos: à um estudo de abrangÃncia nacional, trata com cooperativa de crÃdito mÃtuo urbano, usa uma moderna tÃcnica estatÃstica com dados em painel, o que permite capturar as diferenÃas entre as cooperativas. O presente estudo tambÃm fornece uma maneira racional para a escolha do cut-off. Os resultados sugerem que provisÃo para emprÃstimo em atraso para total do ativo, Total de emprÃstimo para Total de ativo, Total de emprÃstimo para Total de depÃsitos e PatrimÃnio LÃquido Passivo total, sÃo os preditores mais significativos da insolvÃncias das cooperativas. De modo contrÃrio as Despesas Operacionais para Receitas Operacionais e Despesas Operacionais para ativo total nÃo indicam ser significativas em prever a insolvÃncia. / Since the year of 2000 Brazilians credit cooperatives has experienced a increasing growth in number of units. On the other hand Brazilians banks decreased their number, by the process of acquisition and concentration. This growth may imply increasing risk for the associates. This paper empirically investigates the causes of failures of credit cooperatives of heath professionals in Brazil. A goal of this paper is provide a early warning model that inform managers and supervisors of a risks of default, by using logistic regression analysis of financial ratios. It was estimate a default prediction model that was parsimonious and accurate. This work provided additional information over other Brazilian studies of credit cooperatives failure by three ways: it is a national wide study, deals with urban mutual credit cooperative, uses modern statistic technique panel data which can capture the differences across cooperatives. It also provided a reasonable for the choosing of cut-off. The results suggest that provision for bad debts over total assets, total loans over total assets, total loans over total deposits are the most significant predictors of credit cooperative failure. Operational expenses over operational incomes and operational expenses over total assets, contrary, do not seem to be significant indicators of failure

The assumption in economics of a representative agent is often made. However, it is a very rigid assumption. Hall and Jones (2004b) presented an economic model that essentially provided for a representative agent for each age group in determining the group's health level function. Our work seeks to extend their theoretical version of the model by allowing for two representative agents for each age—one for each of “Healthy” and “Sick” risk-factor groups—to allow for additional heterogeneity in the populace. The approach to include even more risk-factor groups is also briefly discussed. While our “extended” theoretical model is not applied directly to relevant data, several techniques that could be applicable were the relevant data to be obtained are demonstrated on other data sets. This includes examples of using linear classification, fitting baseline-category logit models, and running the genetic algorithm.

Background: As rural hospitals in Kentucky face insolvency, stakeholders must assess the value of rural hospitals as well as alternatives such as rural clinics and private physician offices. Objective: To identify the value of attributes of healthcare facilities based on Kentucky’s rural residents’ willingness-to-pay (WTP). Methods: A survey instrument was created and distributed to ten counties in rural Kentucky. A conditional logit model was used to obtain baseline values and then a mixed logit model was used to address heterogeneity among consumers in estimating WTP. WTP values incorporated respondents’ demographic characteristics and their health status from self-reported frequency of use of medical services and distance from these services. Results: The results indicate that on average respondents were willing to pay $69.90 each year for the attribute of a facility that treats patients whether they have health insurance or not, compared to a facility that only accepts patients with private health insurance. Uninsured residents were willing to pay $81.15 for this attribute level. Conclusion: The study suggests that uninsured residents value this attribute level of a facility that grants them access to care. Stakeholders may justify such welfare benefit amounts in support of the establishment or maintenance of such a facility.

This thesis compares different approaches to estimating budgets for Kuhn-Tucker (KT) demand systems, more specifically for the multiple discrete-continuous extreme value (MDCEV) model. The approaches tested include: (1) The log-linear regression approach (2) The stochastic frontier regression approach, and (3) arbitrarily assumed budgets that are not necessarily modeled as a function of decision maker characteristics and choice-environment characteristics. The log-linear regression approach has been used in the literature to model the observed total expenditure as way of estimating budgets for the MDCEV models. This approach allows the total expenditure to depend on the characteristics of the choice-maker and the choice environment. However, this approach does not offer an easy way to allow the total expenditure to change due to changes in choice alternative-specific attributes, but only allows a reallocation of the observed total expenditure among the different choice alternatives. To address this issue, we propose the stochastic frontier regression approach. The approach is useful when the underlying budgets driving a choice situation are unobserved, but only the expenditures on the choice alternatives of interest are observed. The approach is based on the notion that consumers operate under latent budgets that can be conceived (and modeled using stochastic frontier regression) as the maximum possible expenditure they are willing to incur. To compare the efficacy of the above-mentioned approaches, we performed two empirical assessments: (1) The analysis of out-of-home activity participation and time-use (with a budget on the total time available for out-of-home activities) for a sample of non-working adults in Florida, and (2) The analysis of household vehicle type/vintage holdings and usage (with a budget on the total annual mileage) for a sample of households in Florida. A comparison of the MDCEV model predictions (based on budgets from the above mentioned approaches) demonstrates that the log-linear regression approach and the stochastic frontier approach performed better than arbitrarily assumed budgets approaches. This is because both approaches consider heterogeneity in budgets due to socio-demographics and other explanatory factors rather than arbitrarily imposing uniform budgets on all consumers. Between the log-linear regression and the stochastic frontier regression approaches, the log-linear regression approach resulted in better predictions (vis-à-vis the observed distributions of the discrete-continuous choices) from the MDCEV model. However, policy simulations suggest that the stochastic frontier approach allows the total expenditures to either increase or decrease as a result of changes in alternative-specific attributes. While the log-linear regression approach allows the total expenditures to change as a result of changes in relevant socio-demographic and choice-environment characteristics, it does not allow the total expenditures to change as a result of changes in alternative-specific attributes.

自民國87年起，台灣發生了一連串本土性金融風暴，許多上市公司發生財務危機，而民國89年至90年間，台灣整體經濟不景氣，許多傳統產業公司經營不善，而造成公司財務危機。本研究希望藉由財務性變數建立財務危機預警模式，建立傳統產業的財務危機預測模型。同時，更嘗試進一步透過個案資料的整理，以對於財務危機防治方式做一初步的瞭解及建議。 在文獻探討中，本研究首先就財務危機定義探討，並探討財務危機發生因素及財務危機發生之因應策略，接著將國內外學者對於財務危機所做的相關實證研究加以整理論述。 本研究以Logit分析法建立財務危機預測模型，實證結果發現在危機發生前一年預測率較佳，達到81.48％，但於危機發生前二年及前三年預測率較差，僅達到72.22％及68.52％。顯示越接近財務危機發生時點，以Logit分析法所建立之財務危機預測模型預測正確率將較為理想。 本研究對於財務危機個案防治方式分析，得到以下幾點結論：(1)公司財務危機診斷及防治時，必須考量產業特性與危機發生因素；(2)公司負責人與領導團隊的更換，在財務危機防治成效並無導致顯著的差異；(3)在財務危機防治時，聘請外部企管顧問公司監控公司內部營運流程及財務狀況，較能取得債權銀行及投資人的信任，以獲取較佳的談判條件；(4)公司法重整制度的設計並不符合危機公司的需求，應做進一步修法改進。

我國廠商自1980年代中期以後，由於台幣升值、工資上漲、環保意識抬頭以及土地取得不易等因素導致競爭力下降，紛紛至國外投資設廠生產，此時台商對外投資的區域大都集中於東南亞和美國。1987年政府開放民眾赴大陸探親，使香港亦成為台商投資大陸的中繼站，1991年政府更直接開放廠商前往大陸直接投資；而日本的投資案件也伴隨市場開放逐漸增加。隨著歐洲聯盟的經濟暨貨幣聯盟Economic and Monetary Union（EMU）的醞釀與開始運作，以及中、東歐的共產封閉經濟體系逐漸向外開放，自1990年起台商也逐漸增加對歐洲的投資。因此，瞭解影響台商對外直接投資區位選擇的因素，是值得研究的課題。 本研究以1988-1997年經濟部投審會所核准的對外投資廠商作為實證研究對象，投資區位則依地主國地緣位置及經濟發展程度劃分為北美洲、歐洲、亞洲已開發國家或新興工業化國家以及大陸與東南亞國家等四大區位。並以McFadden（1974）的Conditional Logit Model作為實證模型，探討勞動成本、資金成本、市場大小、基礎建設、及群聚效果在台商對外直接投資區位的選擇決策中所扮演的角色。 本研究結果發現，在勞動成本方面，低廉的工資對赴大陸與東南亞國家以及歐洲投資的台商有吸引力。在資金成本方面，除了租稅競爭的亞洲國家之外，低稅率是吸引台商前往海外投資的一大因素。在市場要素方面，龐大消費市場的潛在商機不容許台商忽視其存在。基礎建設的良窳僅影響台商對北美洲投資的意願；對其他區域而言，中央政府經濟事務性支出愈高或許代表著當地基礎建設的不足而阻礙了台商的投資意願。至於群聚效果則是影響台商對外投資區位選擇的要素之一，但對於至亞洲已開發或新興工業化國家投資的台商而言，群聚負效果是他們望而卻步的。

全球經濟生產及市場組織產生重大轉變，製造業廠商從過去設計、生產、行銷一貫作業的大量生產模式，轉向消費者導向生產模式的同時，需要大量策略性服務的投入，尤其是生產性服務業的使用。從彈性生產理論觀念說明專業化分工的有利發展，但事實上製造業廠商對於生產性服務並非皆如其所言皆轉包委外至專業化獨立的公司，生產性服務的使用也存在於製造業廠商的內部。 　　本文探討台北都會區製造業與生產性服務業二者關係與製造業廠商區位選擇得到以下結論： 　　一、從總體資料分析： 　　　（一）台北都會區製造業場所單位家數、員工數以都會區外圍比重較高，但員工數有向都會中心集中的現象。 　　　（二）生產性服務業場所單位家數、員工數以都會中心比重較高，但有向都會中心外圍分散的現象。 　　二、從個體廠商調查發現： 　　　（一）製造業廠商對生產性服務使用受廠商屬性及生產性服務業別有不同程度的影響，一般而言，製造業對生產性服務的使用委外生產比例較高，服務來源區域以台北市居多，但生產性服務以傳統生產所需服務投入為多，除資訊服務外，近三年來未能在其他迂迴投入有所增強。 　　　（二）生產性服務的輸出以製造業與服務業為主，並以都會區本身為主要輸出地。透過製造業總管理單位及服務業本身的分化，使二者生產流程的串聯更為緊密。 　　　（三）以羅吉特模型實證發現製造業廠商選擇接近生產性服務業區位之機率，受地方市場及土地持有方式影響較為顯著。 / The structure of global production and market has changed overwhelmingly. The old-fashioned mass production mode on design, manufacture, and selling has been turning into the consumer-oriented production mode. At this turning point, lots of strategic service, especially producer service, is needed. The idea of flexible production explains the beneficial development of specialized division of labor. However, in practical application, the manufacturers do not contract out all their needs for the producer service to the specialized independent companies according to the flexible production theory. The departments inside the manufacturers also supply a certain part of the producer service for their relative departments. 　　I hereby explore the relationship between the manufacture and producer service inside the Taipei Metropolis, and the location choosing of the manufacturers. My conclusions are: 　　I. Analyzed from the overall data: 　　　　A. In the Taipei Metropolis, the percentage of the number of establishment units and persons engaged of manufacturing is higher in the suburbs than in the downtown area. Yet, there is a tendency for the persons engaged to be gathering toward the downtown area. 　　　　B. The percentage of the number of establishment units and persons engaged of producer service is higher in the downtown than in the suburbs. Yet, there is a tendency for them to be gathering toward the suburbs. 　　II. Found from the survey on individual manufacturers: 　　　　A. The manufacturers have various influences on the use of producer service, according to the manufacturers' natures and the kinds of producer service. In general, more manufacturers prefer to contract out their needs on producer service, which are mainly supplied from the downtown of Taipei City. Yet, the producer service has devoted more into the traditional manufacture. Except for the information service, the other indirect devotion has not been increased in the latest three years. 　　　　B. The output of the producer service is mainly on manufacturers and service industry with the metropolis as its main target. Through the division between the manufacturers' general managing departments and the service industry, the series connection between their productive procedures is reinforced further. 　　　　C. Proved by the Logit Model experiment, manufacturers are found more vividly influenced by the local market and land possession styles when they are choosing if they want to be close to their producer service suppliers.

Degree awarded (2004): PhDEc, Economics, George Washington University / This research introduces a new theoretical framework for the analysis of access pricing (the prices that networks charge each other for the completion of calls) and the modeling of network interconnection competition. Prior work on two-way access by Armstrong (1998), Laffont, Rey and Tirole (1998), and Carter and Wright (1999), et al has been built on a two-network Hotelling (1929) differentiated competition model applied to network interconnection. The current research develops an alternative approach that is based on a cross-nested logit (CNL) discrete/continuous consumer choice model with a constant elasticity of substitution (CES) calling utility specification. A principal contribution of the new modeling framework is that in addition to being able to analyze interconnection competition among multiple networks, it is designed to incorporate the element of multiple network subscription where consumers may simultaneously subscribed to more than one type of access network. By introducing multiple-network subscription and usage substitution for users subscribed to multiple networks, the analysis allows more general assessments to be made of the impact of access pricing schemes on the degree of competition between interconnected networks. The model is also not restricted to assumptions of homogeneity in calling on the differentiated networks but can incorporate call differentiation according to network type. The model is applied to evaluate the effects of dual network subscription and asymmetric network competition and to assess multi-network competition in an environment served by two mobile networks and a fixed, wireline network. While confirming the results of prior single network subscription analysis, a central finding of the research based on the developed model is that while network competition is intensified when dual network subscription occurs, negotiated access charges between connected networks continue to serve as an instrument of collusion even in cases of non-linear (two-part) consumer tariffs. / Advisory Committee: John Kwoka, Christopher Snyder (Chair), Sumit Joshi

<p>Given the question of how to further decrease childhood mortality and attain the fourth MDG in Bangladesh, the determinants of childhood mortality and successful health intervention programmes in a rural area of Bangladesh are examined in this paper. The binominal logit regression analysis, on Matlab HDSS data from 2001 to 2005, indicates that the child’s birth order, outcome of mother’s previous pregnancy, mother’s age, mother’s education, economic condition of the household, immunization, and place of delivery are important determining factors of childhood mortality. Interview discussions show that the delivery of health services is a determining factor for successful health intervention programmes. It is worth to note that childhood mortality levels are no longer significantly lower in the treatment area of Matlab. Furthermore, the intervention programmes in the area require continuous reform, especially in the fields of birth assistance and injury prevention.</p>

In recent years, the issues of energy dependency and renewable energy options have gained recognition with not only policy-makers but also mainstream consumers. Understanding consumer beliefs and preferences related to these issues is therefore relevant as innovative renewable energy markets have the potential to change conventional consumer purchasing decisions. This paper investigates the beliefs and behaviors of U.S. consumers related to E85 ethanol from corn and cellulosic feedstocks. Four distinct market segments are created so that the ethanol market can be investigated more in-depth. Overall familiarity with ethanol as an alternative fuel is high; however, individual segments vary on beliefs related to corn and cellulosic ethanol, purchasing Flex-Fuel Vehicles, general concern for the environment, and many other factors. In order to successfully market ethanol to a diverse market, the preferences, beliefs and behaviors of these four distinct segments should be taken into account. While environmental concern has waxed and waned over time, issues like as climate change have come to the forefront of both domestic and international discussion and policy. The role of greenhouse gas emissions in contributing to climate change has been acknowledged. As a major source of emissions, transportation fuels are an obvious source of potential reductions in greenhouse gas emissions. This study segments consumers into four distinct market segments and uses a contingent choice method to determine willingness to pay for reductions in greenhouse gas emissions through purchases of E85 ethanol blends. Overall, willingness to pay is estimated at about 0.18 cents per gallon for each percentage in emissions reductions when compared with gasoline containing no ethanol (E0). Willingness to pay for emissions reductions varies in significance and degree across the four market segments. The diversity between the four segments implies that marketing plans should take into account the heterogeneity of consumers and make efforts to account for their varied needs and preferences.