Made available in DSpace on 2016-03-15T19:25:32Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Patricia Marilia Ricomini e Almeida.pdf: 585196 bytes, checksum: d95885c7a4db627bc6882b2064a1efeb (MD5) Previous issue date: 2006-03-09 / Fundo Mackenzie de Pesquisa / One of the most popular subjects in finance is about the search and the learning of the securities return generation process and originate with the publication of Bachelier s thesis, in 1900. In 1978, Jensen affirmed that, any strategy of business, that produces economic profits in a consistent way, discounted the risk, for a sufficient long period, observing the transaction costs, consist in evidence against market efficiency. However, occurs that empirical evidences, mainly as from 60 s decade, have verified a succession of events, that originate production of literary work in finance: conglomerate of volatility, no normality of returns, negative asymmetry, excess of kurtosis and stochastic volatility. As result of these verifications, theories arose, especially of economic nature, about the characteristic nonlinear of the data, as rational speculative bubble. This paper examines the performance of a general dynamic equity indexing strategy based on cointegration, from a market efficiency perspective, observing the different levels of risk and regimes. The identification of these regimes auto regressive in the process of generating returns in the Brazilian Market, especially in Bovespa, for the Plano Real period (January of 1995 to September of 2004), will be elaborated trough a Markov Switching Model. With this model, is possible to identify the nonlinear structure of the data and it is relation to the conditional mean and conditional variance. As result the dynamics of the data generation process, the returns can be described as function of the growth cycle ("bull markets") and decrease ("bear markets"). / Um dos mais populares assuntos em finanças trata da pesquisa e estudo do processo de geração de retornos de títulos, tendo sua origem com a publicação da tese de Bachelier, em 1900. Em 1978, Jensen afirmou que, qualquer estratégia de negócio, que produza de forma consistente ganho econômico, já descontado o risco, por um período suficientemente longo, considerando os custos de transação, constitui-se em uma evidência contra eficiência de mercado. A eficiência de mercado, portanto, pode ser traduzida para a hipótese de que o valor esperado do excesso da taxa de retorno é, na média, igual a zero, quando se leva em consideração uma medida de probabilidade que desconta o prêmio pelo risco, dado um conjunto de informações (históricas, públicas ou privadas). Todavia, ocorre que as evidências empíricas, principalmente a partir da década de sessenta, têm constatado uma série de fatos, que deram origem a uma vasta literatura em finanças: conglomerados de volatilidade, não normalidade dos retornos, assimetria negativa, excesso de curtose, volatilidade estocástica, auto- regressividade dos retornos e da volatilidade, anomalias de mercado relacionadas com a sazonalidade ou com o funcionamento dos mercados, anomalias de mercado relacionadas ao tamanho da empresa e a sua estrutura de capital, processo de reversão para o retorno médio e valores extremos. Em função dessas constatações, surgiram teorias, especialmente de natureza econômica, sobre a característica não linear dos dados, tais como: modismos, manias e pânicos e bolhas especulativas racionais. Um dos objetivos do presente estudo consiste em elaborar uma estratégia ativa baseada na construção de um Índice de Cointegração, considerando-se os diferentes níveis de riscos e de regimes auto regressivo. A identificação desses regimes no processo de geração de retornos no mercado brasileiro de ações na BOVESPA, para o período pós Plano Real (janeiro de 1995 a setembro de 2004) será elaborado através do Modelo de Regimes de Conversão de Markov. A utilização desse modelo de regimes permite identificar a estrutura não linear dos dados seja em relação à média condicional, seja em relação à variância condicional. Como resultado, a dinâmica do processo de geração poderá ser função de ciclos de crescimento persistente ( bull markets ) e de não crescimento ( bear markets ).

Most of the prior research in the area of monthly regularities has been based on the Gregorian calendar; by contrast, little attention has been given to other calendars based on different religions or cultures. This thesis examines monthly calendar anomalies in the Pakistani stock market for both the Gregorian calendar and its Islamic counterpart. This is one of the first studies to investigate both calendars for monthly seasonality in one investigation on the same dataset. Empirical studies of the Pakistani stock market that have examined monthly calendar anomalies are relatively sparse when compared with investigations from other emerging markets throughout the world. Even the findings from the small number of Pakistani investigations that have examined for the presence of monthly calendar anomalies have arrived at different conclusions about the predictability of equity returns at different times within a year. Since the conclusions of these findings have been mixed, the current study undertakes further work on this topic to offer some clarity in this area; this thesis arrives at a firm conclusion about the monthly calendar anomaly. For the purpose of this thesis, both qualitative and quantitative research methods were employed. Firstly, 19 face-to-face interviews were conducted with brokers, regulators and individual investors to ascertain their views about share price regularities with regards to monthly calendar anomalies and to gain some insights about the role of investor sentiment in the Pakistani stock markets. Secondly, share returns for a sample of 106 companies listed on the KSE over the 17 year period from 1995 to 2011 were analysed to determine whether Pakistani stock markets are weak-form efficient or whether security price changes can be predicted from knowledge of the month when the return is earned; it also investigates whether there is a change in the risk (volatility) of shares in different months which might explain any pattern in returns. To answer these questions various research methods were employed. The results of the interviews suggest that most respondents believed that share prices exhibit patterns in certain months of the year. The most common pattern highlighted by the interviewees related to the month of January for the Gregorian calendar and Ramadan for the Islamic calendar. Interviewees also argued that volatility declined during the religious month of Ramadan; they attributed these changes to investor sentiment and religious duties. Overall, the results suggested that monthly calendar anomalies may be present in the market and that these are studied by investors in an attempt to earn profit. The results from the quantitative analyses supported the findings from the interviews. Initial analyses suggested that returns varied significantly during certain months which indicate that the market might not be efficient. Further, investigations for seasonality in both the mean and volatility of returns offered conflicting evidence; very little statistical evidence of monthly seasonal anomalies was identified in average returns. However, monthly patterns were present in the variance of equity price changes in Pakistan. Overall, the results confirm that whatever monthly seasonality may be present in the equity prices of Pakistani companies, it is more pronounced in the volatility data than in the mean return numbers. These findings may have useful implications for trading strategies and investment decisions; investors may look to gain from managing the risk of their portfolios due to time varying volatility documented in the findings of this thesis. Further, the results of this thesis have interesting implications for our understanding of the dynamics of equity volatility in the Pakistani stock market.

<p>Problem:   What are the most useful techniques to indicate the stocks that will outperform the market 12 month post the recession period?  Purpose:  The purpose is to find out which method(s): P/B, EV/EBIT, level of debt and so on, will offer investors the highest returns on the investments post the recession period based on the example of the IT crisis of 2000/2001.  Method:  Quantitative study, covering the Swedish OMX Index from 2001 until December 2002.  Conclusions:  Three variables should be reconsidered when making an investment decision post the recession period. These variables were earlier 12 months returns, dividend yield and P/E ratios. However, it is crucial to understand that these three tools should not be viewed all together.</p><p> </p>

This dissertation is concerned with the relationship between accounting earnings and stock prices. It consists of three empirical papers, all using a sample of firms listed on the Stockholm Stock Exchange (1990-2008). The first paper documents the existence of a drift in stock prices subsequent to quarterly earnings announcements. Two interesting empirical observations are that the drift is only significant for longer holding periods and that the drift on the short position, i.e. after bad earnings news, is negligible. The lack of downward drift on the short position is interpreted as an indication of the post-earnings announcement drift, at least partly, being explained by investors demanding a compensation for a risk factor that is omitted in the test design. The second paper illustrates under what conditions information risk in the earnings signal might explain a low announcement reaction and a price drift in the post-announcement period. It is hypothesized that two earnings signals – based either on GAAP earnings or core earnings – have different levels of information uncertainty with respect to how they depict the value creation of the firm. In the empirical sections, it is concluded that the low immediate announcement reaction and high post-announcement drift for the GAAP earnings signal is due to this signal being perceived by investors as containing more uncertainty than the core earnings signal. It is argued that this uncertainty might be due to GAAP earnings encompassing items that prior research has shown more likely to be manipulated and/or to contain estimation error. The positive association between information risk and expected return is further investigated in the third paper, where information risk is measured by earnings quality metrics. Using a new approach to estimate the implied cost of capital, it is found that Swedish investors demand a higher expected return for firms with poor earnings quality, i.e. firms associated with higher information risk. / Diss. Stockholm : Handelshögskolan i Stockholm, 2011

På vilket sätt är redovisningsmått som publiceras i företagens årsredovisningar relevanta för att bestämma aktievärden? Kan redovisningsmått användas för att utforma lönsamma placeringsstrategier i aktier? Frågor som dessa är av intresse för såväl akademiker som professionellt verksamma placerare.  I denna avhandling utreds huruvida publicerade redovisningsmått är värderelevanta, i betydelsen att de kan användas för prognoser av företagens framtida räntabilitet på eget kapital. Statistiska modeller för prognos av räntabilitet på eget kapital med hjälp av redovisningsbaserade nyckeltal har estimerats och utvärderats. Det empiriska datamaterialet har utgjorts av årsredovisningar för svenska rörelsedrivande företag under perioden 1970-1985.  Vidare studeras om placeringsstrategier baserade på prognoser av framtida räntabilitet på eget kapital kan ge en aktieavkastning utöver vad som motiveras av placeringens risk. I denna del av studien prövas huruvida den svenska aktiemarknaden är informationseffektiv med avseende på offentligt tillgänglig årsredovisningsinformation. Placeringstrategier har utvärderats på aktier som fanns noterade på Stockholms fondbörs under perioden 1983-1994.  Den empiriska kartläggningen indikerar att redovisningsmått kan användas för att prognostisera framtida räntabilitet på eget kapital och att placeringsstrategier baserade på offentligt tillgänglig årsredovisningsinformation har genererat en avkastning utöver vad som motiveras av olika mått på placeringsrisk. I studien observeras dock betydande tidsmässiga instabiliteter beträffande såväl möjligheterna att prognostisera framtida räntabilitet på eget kapital, som förekomsten av avkastning utöver vad som motiveras av placeringsrisk. / <p>Diss. Stockholm : Handelshögskolan, 2002</p>

Problem:   What are the most useful techniques to indicate the stocks that will outperform the market 12 month post the recession period?  Purpose:  The purpose is to find out which method(s): P/B, EV/EBIT, level of debt and so on, will offer investors the highest returns on the investments post the recession period based on the example of the IT crisis of 2000/2001.  Method:  Quantitative study, covering the Swedish OMX Index from 2001 until December 2002.  Conclusions:  Three variables should be reconsidered when making an investment decision post the recession period. These variables were earlier 12 months returns, dividend yield and P/E ratios. However, it is crucial to understand that these three tools should not be viewed all together.

I denna uppsats undersöks om världshändelser skapar abnorma effekter hos oljebolags aktiekurser och om dessa effekter ter sig olika beroende på företagens olika storlek. Undersökningen utförs med hjälp av en eventstudie som genomförs på sex oljebolag med tre världshändelser som utgångspunkt. De valda världshändelserna bestod av två naturkatastrofer och en större ekonomisk händelse. Företagen som valdes delades in i två grupper om tre företag, där ena gruppen innehöll de större företagen och den andra gruppen de mindre. Slutsatserna som har kunnat dras av undersökningen är att händelserna i två av de tre undersökta fallen orsakade signifikanta abnorma under- eller överavkastningar hos oljebolagens aktier vilket bevisar en viss ineffektivitet hos marknaden. Det generella utfallet var att den ekonomiska händelsen visade sig ha en större påverkan på aktiekurserna än de två naturkatastroferna hade. Samtidigt kunde det påvisas en större skillnad mellan de större och de mindre företagens aktiekursers reaktioner gällande den ekonomiska händelsen. Resultaten visade att de mindre företagen drabbades hårdare. / This essay examines whether world events create abnormal effects of oil companies stock prices and whether these effects appear different depending on the companies’ different sizes. The analysis is performed using an event study conducted in six oil companies with three world events as a starting point. The selected world events consisted of two natural disasters and a greater economic event. The companies selected were divided into two groups of three companies, in which one group contained the larger companies and the second group the smaller ones. The conclusion that has been drawn from the study is that the events in two of the three cases studied caused significant abnormal deficit or excess returns of oil companies’ shares, which proves certain inefficiency of the market. The general outcome was that the economic event turned out to have a greater impact on the firms’ stock prices than the two natural disasters had. It was possible to distinguish a significant difference between the stock prices reactions of the larger and smaller firms regarding the economic event. The result showed that the smaller companies were affected to a larger extent.

This paper analyzes two main frameworks that challenge the “mainstream” finance theory and the random walk hypothesis. The first framework is based on investor irrationality and is called Behavioural Finance. The second framework views the financial market as a chaotic system and is called Fractal Theory of a financial market. Behavioural Finance attacks the assumption of investor rationality, thus challenging the conventional finance theories on the micro level. Fractal Theory challenges the EMH and the “macroeconomics” of finance. This paper presents a step towards unifying the frameworks of Behavioural Finance and Fractal Theory. After a review of the relevant literature, a model of the financial market is suggested that rests on the predictions of both Behavioural Finance and Fractal Theory. As a next step, a mathematical algorithm is described that allows to test the financial market for consistency with the presented model. The mathematical algorithm is applied to 10 years of daily S&amp;P500 price quotes, and consistent statistical evidence shows that the predicted fractal pattern reveals itself in the S&amp;P500 prices. The new model outperforms the random walk in out-of-sample forecasting.

Syfte: Syftet med denna studie är att undersöka om det finns ett samband mellan redovisad nedskrivning av goodwill och börsvärdet hos företag noterade vid London Stock Exchange mellan 2009 och 2012. Inledning: EU införde 2005 en ny standard för koncernredovisning. Syftet med den nya redovisningsstandarden, IFRS 3, är att öka relevansen, pålitligheten och jämförbarheten i den finansiella rapporteringen. Detta medförde bland annat att posten goodwill inte längre får skrivas av enligt plan, utan årligen ska testas för eventuell nedskrivning. Metod: För att fylla studiens syfte har vi använt oss av en kvantitativ undersökning, där relevant data har samlats in via marknadsdata och analysverktyget Bloomberg. Studien genomfördes på de största företagen registrerade på London Stock Exchange med undantag för de företag som inte hade den data som krävdes för att vara relevanta för studiens syfte. Svaren analyserades genom multipel regressionsanalys samt deskriptiv statistik framställda i statistikverktyget Minitab. Slutsats: Undersökningen visade att det finns ett statistiskt signifikant negativt samband mellan nedskrivning av goodwill och börsvärde. Detta tyder på att investerare anser att en nedskrivning av goodwill är ett tecken på att börsvärdet försämrats. Resultatet kan tolkas som att investerare litar på företagsledningens förmåga att värdera goodwillpostens storlek. / Purpose: The purpose of this study is to investigate if there is a correlation between reported goodwill impairment and market value for companies listed on the London Stock Exchange between the years 2009 and 2012. Introduction: A new accounting standard was introduced in the EU in 2005, which meant a new standard for mergers. The goal of the new accounting standard, IFRS 3, is to increase the relevance, reliability and comparability in financial reporting. This resulted in a change where goodwill no longer will be amortized, but tested annually for impairment. Method: To fulfil the purpose of this study, we used a quantitative method where secondary data was collected from the market data and analyst tool Bloomberg. The study was conducted on the largest companies listed on the London Stock Exchange, except for the firms that did not have the data relevant for the purpose of the study. The responses were analysed by multiple regression analysis and descriptive statistics analysis, both produced by the statistical software Minitab. Conclusion: The findings indicate a statistical significant correlation between the impairment of goodwill and decrease in share price. This suggests that investors believe that goodwill impairment is indicative of a decrease in expected present value of future returns, i.e. decrease in share price. The result can be interpreted as evidence that investors rely on the corporate management's ability to value the firm’s goodwill.

There are plenty of things said about the financial industry, an always ongoing debate, to say the least. We have identified a complex situation with three dimensions: Initial public offerings, Venture capital, and Lockup agreements. IPOs are generally difficult to put a price on because the market is not united yet, which creates uncertainties. Venture capital firms invest into startups, often with the incentive of bringing them to an IPO and then make a fast cash out exit. Lockup agreements are contracts that prevent insiders from dumping their shares during a set period in the beginning of the IPO. Additionally, based on the market efficiency theory, a market should always be efficient. But does it play out when these characteristics are affecting each other? The purpose of this research was to investigate whether there are abnormal returns in the financial performance for publicly listed companies on the London Stock Exchange at the end of their lockup period. We sorted on venture capital backed companies and sought to explore differences between VC backed, Non-VC backed firms, and the entire market. The research question for this study is: ‘Does The theoretical aspects of this research’s ontological and epistemological views were set in positivism and objectivism with a deductive approach. The financial performance was key in this research, and it was essential to get ample and appropriate data, therefore a quantitative research method was used with an archival research strategy and explanatory research design. We explored a big research gap in this area after the financial crisis 2008, which made us look at IPOs from 2009 to 2012 with an event window as our time horizon. To answer the research question and fulfill our purpose, four hypotheses were developed with focus on VC backed firms, Non-VC backed firms, the entire market, and one shorter event window. Our results prove that the market efficiency theory does not hold. To answer the research question, we found negative abnormal returns after the lockup expiration date for both Non- VC backed firms and the entire market. However, we were unable to provide a statistically significant result for VC backed firms. There was an extra clear trend during the middle 20 days, and we suggest and encourage to further research with a longer time horizon than [- 20, +20] days.