The vertical structure of the tangential wind field in tropical cyclones is investigated through observations, theory, and numerical simulations. First, a dataset of Doppler radar wind swaths obtained from NOAA/AOML/HRD is used to create azimuthal mean tangential wind fields for 7 storms on 17 different days. Three conventional wisdoms of vertical structure are reexamined: the outward slope of the Radius of Maximum Winds (RMW) decreases with increasing intensity, the slope increases with the size of the RMW, and the RMW is a surface of constant absolute angular momentum (M). The slopes of the RMW and of M surfaces are objectively determined. The slopes are found to increase linearly with the size of the low-level RMW, and to be independent of the intensity of the storm. While the RMW is approximately an M surface, M systematically decreases with height along the RMW. The steady-state analytical theory of Emanuel (1986) is shown to make specific predictions regarding the vertical structure of tropical cyclones. It is found that in this model, the slope of the RMW is a linear function of its size and is independent of intensity, and that the RMW is almost exactly an M surface. A simple time-dependent model which is governed by the same assumptions as the analytical theory yields the same results. Idealized hurricane simulations are conducted using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. The assumptions of Emanuel's theory, slantwise moist neutrality and thermal wind balance, are both found to be violated. Nevertheless, the vertical structure of the wind field itself is generally well predicted by the theory. The percentage rate at which the winds decay with height is found to be nearly independent of both size and intensity, in agreement with observations and theory. Deviations from this decay profile are shown to be due to gradient wind imbalance. The slope of the RMW increases linearly with its size, but is systematically too large compared to observations. Also in contrast to observations, M generally increases with height along the RMW.

Orientador: Abílio da Costa-Rosa / Banca: Maria da Graça Chamma Ferraz e Ferraz / Banca: Geraldo José de Paiva / Resumo: Nesta pesquisa realizamos uma análise institucional, cujo objetivo é problematizar as práticas formativas eclesiásticas católicas, tais como elas se apresentam nos modos de funcionamento institucional de um Seminário Católico - localizado no Estado de São Paulo - e no registro do saber eclesiástico, como produtoras de uma modalização específica da subjetividade (futuros padres). Através da observação do cotidiano do estabelecimento, de entrevistas semi-estruturadas com diferentes atores institucionais, da análise dos documentos oficiais do Magistério Católico e de uma revisão bibliográfica pertinente, buscamos compreender as relações de formação entre padres formadores e seminaristas como um dispositivo privilegiado de constituição do Seminário como agência de produção de subjetividade. Como mediação e pano de fundo para nossos objetivos examinamos o processo histórico que engendrou a atual sociedade disciplinar, enquanto um projeto do Estado de normalização social, e possibilitou o aparecimento das instituições de seqüestro, que se atualizam em estabelecimentos tais como o Seminário Católico. Concluímos que o Seminário investigado pode ser considerado como uma instituição tipicamente disciplinar cujo principal mecanismo e operador microfísico é o relatório (instrumento de exame, vigilância e sanção normalizadora). Sua origem pode ser encontrada no convento católico medieval, matriz de diversas instituições totais. Sua técnica básica é o confinamento e sua lógica é totalitária e "panóptica". O modo de funcionamento desse Seminário Católico se caracteriza pela contradição entre um discurso que privilegia a participação e práticas formativas disciplinares objetivantes e normalizadoras, produzindo uma modalidade de subjetividade de tonalidade perversa. / Abstract: We have done in this research an institutional analyses, which aims is to examine the Catholic ecclesiastical formation practices by means of institutional functioning from a Catholic Seminary - set in São Paulo State - and the register of the ecclesiastical knowledge, producer of a specific subjectivity pattern (future priests). By observing the everyday of that establishment, the semi-structured interviews with institution actors, the analyses of official documents of the Catholic Ministry and relevant literature, we looked for understanding the formation relationship between priests responsible for the formation and seminarians concerning to a privileged and constitutive device of the seminary as an agent producer of subjectivity. Historical process was the mediator and background for our purposes, which built up the nowadays disciplinary society, a State project for social normality, and opened the way to withdrawal institutions which are renewed at establishments such as the Catholic Seminary. Thus we come to the conclusion that the Seminary focused can be considered as a common disciplinary institution, which maintains the report as its main mechanism and microphysics device (exam tool, surveillance and normal process sanction). Its genesis can be found into the Catholic medieval convent, the matrix to the total institutions. It had used the confinement and a totalitarian and "panoptic" logic. That Catholic Seminary functionality is characterized by the contradiction between the speech guided to participation and an objectifying and normalizing disciplinary formation practices, producer of a modality of subjectivity with a perverse tonality. / Mestre

Os sistemas convectivos da região Amazônica possuem características microfísicas peculiares, que variam de um caráter convectivo marítimo (estação chuvosa) a continental (estação de transição seca-chuvosa). Essas características modulam a eletrificação desses sistemas, porém ainda não se sabe quais são os processos dominantes que intensificam o número de descargas elétricas de uma estação para outra: efeito dos aerossóis, termodinâmico, grande-escala ou topografia? Para responder à essa pergunta, o objetivo deste trabalho foi identificar e quantificar a importância de cada um desses efeitos na eletrificação dos sistemas convectivos da Amazônia. A metodologia foi baseada em análises de dados observacionais do experimento de campo DRYTOWET e em um modelo numérico com parametrizações de transferências de cargas e descargas elétricas. A análise do ciclo anual das descargas elétricas do tipo nuvem-solo (CGs) mostrou que a atividade elétrica dos sistemas precipitantes da região sudoeste da Amazônia aumenta durante a transição da estação seca para a estação chuvosa (Agosto a Setembro), associada aos sistemas convectivos com maior desenvolvimento vertical que acontecem nesse período. Com o estabelecimento da estação chuvosa (Novembro a Março), o número de CGs diminui porém a atividade elétrica ainda se mantêm. A porcentagem desses totais de CGs que tinham polaridade positiva (+CGs) tem média de 12% durante todo o ano, aumentando drasticamente para até 25% em Setembro, durante a transição entre as estações secas e chuvosa. Esse aumento da %+CGs ocorreu simultaneamente ao aumento da poluição atmosférica provocada pela queima de biomassa das pastagens realizada pelos fazendeiros locais, que as preparam para a agricultura e pecuária durante o início das primeiras chuvas. Por outro lado, o aumento da %+CGs das tempestades também ocorreu preferencialmente sobre a área de pastagem do estado de Rondônia. Através da análise de dados de radar dos sistemas precipitantes que ocorreram durante o experimento DRYTOWET, foi constatado que as tempestades positivas (tempestades que produzem mais de 50% de +CGs em 50% de seu tempo de vida) se formaram em ambientes mais secos e com alturas do nível de convecção por levantamento (NCL, altura da base da nuvem) maiores do que as demais tempestades (tempestades negativas), durante todo o experimento mas com maiores diferenças durante o final da estação seca (Setembro-Outubro). Com altura da base da nuvem mais elevada, a espessura da camada quente (ECQ - base da nuvem até a isoterma de 0oC) diminui, aumentando assim a velocidade das correntes ascendentes através de um melhor processamento da energia potencial disponível para convecção (CAPE) devido a um menor entranhamento. O aumento da velocidade das correntes ascendentes dentro da nuvem resulta em tempestades mais profundas e mais intensas. O efeito do aumento do NCL é uma característica das regiões com vegetação de pastagem, onde a razão entre o calor sensível e latente na superfície é maior do que as áreas florestadas, aumentando a altura da camada limite planetária. As diferenças de concentração total e distribuição de tamanho dos aerossóis devido ao aumento da poluição durante a transição entre as estações seca e chuvosa não foram conclusivas quanto a um possível efeito na distribuição de hidrometeoros das tempestade positivas e negativas, uma vez que o ciclo diurno da concentração dos aerossóis acompanha o ciclo diurno da camada limite planetária, que também regula o efeito da ECQ. Simulações numéricas com um modelo 1D de nuvem, acoplado à parametrizações de transferências de cargas elétricas entre hidrometeoros e raios, mostraram que a estrutura termodinâmica da atmosfera foi a maior responsável pela eletrificação das tempestades simuladas, aumentando a velocidade das correntes ascendentes. O efeito do aumento do número de aerossóis, que inibe da fase quente da nuvem e conseqüentemente fortalece a da fase fria da nuvem fornecendo mais vapor e gotículas de nuvem para essa região, provocou a diminuição da quantidade de granizo nas tempestades simuladas e o aumento de partículas agregadas menores, como os flocos de neve e graupel, diminuindo a freqüência de raios. / Amazonian convective systems have unique microphysical characteristics, varying from a maritime convective behavior (rainy season) to a continental behavior (wet-dry transition season). These characteristics modulate the electrification of these systems, however it is still not well understood which are the dominant processes that intensify the frequency of lightning from one season to another: aerosol effect, thermodynamics, large-scale variability, landscape or topography? To answer this question, the objective of this study was to identify and quantify the importance of each one of these effects on the electrification of convective systems over the Amazon. The methodology was based on the analysis of observational data from the field experiment DRYTOWET and a numerical model with charge transfer parameterizations and lightning discharges. The cloud-to-ground (CG) lightning discharges annual cycle presented that the electrical activity of the southwestern Amazonian precipitating systems increased during the transition between the dry and wet seasons (August to September), in association with the convective systems deepening. With the establishment of the wet season (November to March), the number of CGs decreased but the electrical activity continued. The mean annual percentage of cloud-to-ground lightning of positive polarity (+CGs) was 12%, increasing drastically to 25% in September during the transition between the dry and wet seasons. This percentage of +CGs raise happened simultaneously with the increase in the atmospheric pollution due to the pasture biomass burning, held by local farmers to prepare the soil for agriculture and livestock during the begging of first rains. On the other hand, the increase in %+CGs also occurred preferentially over pasture areas of Rondonia state. Through the analysis of radar precipitating systems that occurred during the field campaign DRYTOWET, it was noted that positive thunderstorms (storms that produced more than 50% of +CGs over 50% of their life time) were initiated in drier and higher lift condensation levels (cloud base height) environments than other storms (negative thunderstorms) during all the field experiment, especially in the end of the dry season (September-October). A higher cloud base height is associated with a shallower warm cloud depth (cloud base height to the 0oC isotherm) and consequently less entrainment, increasing the updrafts due to a more efficient processing of the convective available potential energy (CAPE). This increase in updrafts inside the clouds results in deeper and stronger thunderstorms. The higher cloud base heights is a characteristic from pasture regions, where the ratio between sensible and latent heats at surface is greater than forested areas, which increases the top of the planetary boundary layer. The differences in the aerosol total concentration and size distribution, due to the increase in the atmospheric pollution during the transition between the dry and wet seasons, were inconclusive in a possible aerosol effect in the strength of positive and negative thunderstorms, once the aerosol concentration diurnal cycle follows the cycle of the planetary boundary layer, that also regulates the warm cloud depth effect. Numerical simulation of an 1D cloud model, coupled with charge transfer between the hydrometeors, showed that the thermodynamic structure was the main responsible feature for cloud electrification, increasing the updraft velocities. The pollution effect was masked in simulations, which inhibit the warm precipitation and consequently strength the the mixed and cold regions of the cloud, was responsible for an increase in the number of smaller aggregated particles, like snow flakes and graupel, decreasing the electrification and lightning frequency.

Tempestades severas ocorrem na Região Metropolitana de São Paulo (RMSP) principalmente nos meses quentes e úmidos do ano. Nesta tese, os mecanismos de disparo da convecção profunda são estudados por meio de análises observacionais e simulações numéricas com o Advanced Regional Prediction System (ARPS). A metodologia proposta compreende o uso da parametrização microfísica fria na simulação dos processos físicos que levam à formação de nuvens cumulonimbus, sem o uso da parametrização de cúmulos nas grades de altíssima resolução espacial. Nos eventos estudados, as primeiras células de precipitação observadas e simuladas surgiram em razão da interação entre o escoamento atmosférico na camada limite planetária e a topografia local. As células secundárias foram geralmente mais intensas, uma vez que elas surgiram após o aquecimento diabático adicional. O mecanismo de disparo das células secundárias foi a corrente ascendente induzida pela propagação horizontal das frentes de rajada em baixos níveis da atmosfera das correntes descendentes das células primárias. As frentes de rajada tiveram velocidade de propagação horizontal típica de 6 m s-1. No evento de 02 de fevereiro de 2004, células convectivas profundas foram simuladas com alto grau de realismo no domínio da grade de 3 km de resolução espacial. Observou-se que, neste caso, a frente de brisa marítima pôde atuar como guia de ondas para a colisão entre duas frentes de rajada. A propagação da frente de brisa marítima para o interior do continente ocorreu em conjunção a um forte gradiente de vapor dágua nos níveis mais baixos da troposfera. As células convectivas profundas secundárias surgiram e se desenvolveram exatamente nesta zona de interface, a qual representa o contraste entre as diferentes massas de ar marítima e continental. No evento de 04 de fevereiro de 2004, na grade de 1 km de resolução, a análise objetiva com as medidas das estações de superfície na RMSP correspondente às 1800 UTC indicou a presença de uma ilha de calor urbana com até 4 oC de aquecimento diferencial entre a Capital e vizinhanças. O principal efeito da assimilação destas medidas foi a redução do NCL em até 80 hPa, o que favoreceu o disparo da convecção naquela área. / Severe thunderstorms occur in the Metropolitan Area of São Paulo (MASP) mainly in the warm and wet months of the year. In this work, the triggering mechanisms of deep convection are studied through observed data and numerical simulations with the Advanced Regional Prediction System (ARPS). The proposed methodology focuses in the use of microphysics parameterization of cold clouds to simulate physical process linked to the life cycle of thunderstorms. The cumulus cloud parameterization isnt used in high resolution numerical grids. In the real case studies, both observed and simulated, early convective cells developed as a consequence of the interaction between the planetary boundary layer atmospheric flow and the local topography. The secondary convective cells were generally strongest, once they developed after additional surface diabatic heating. The triggering mechanism of these secondary cells was the updraft induced by gust fronts generated by downdrafts of primary cells. The gust fronts had a typical horizontal propagation velocity of 6 m s-1. In the February 02 2004 event, deep convective cells were simulated with high degree of realism with a 3 km resolution grid. It was observed that, in this case, the sea-breeze front could act as a wave guide to the collision between two different gust fronts. In addition, the sea breeze front propagated to the continental area together with a strong low level water vapor gradient. The secondary deep convective cells arose and developed exactly on this interface zone, which represents the contrast between the oceanic and continental air masses. The interface zone was marked by a water vapor mixing rate of 14 g kg-1. In the February 04 2004 event, the objective analysis, made with some MASP´s surface stations measurements at 1800 UTC in the 1 km resolution grid, indicates the presence of an urban heat island with up to 4 oC of differential heating between São Paulo city and its neighboring area. The main effect in assimilating these surface measurements was the lowering of the lift condensation level up to 80 hPa, which favored the triggering of convection in that area.

Made available in DSpace on 2014-08-20T13:47:50Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Herberto Peil Mereb_Dissertacao.pdf: 3631795 bytes, checksum: 0ebb2d8eb674d9b6300c2a308a92eb72 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2011-06-21 / This study analyzes the practices of implementation of the Urban PRORENDA, in Dunas Allotment, and how this experience has interfered in the power relationships in that community, especially in the period between 1996 and 2001, and which its consequences and effects were. It also analyzes the ascension of Dunas Allotment from the perspective of the third sector: local autonomy and empowerment, as well as the disarticulation of the neighborhood association: struggle for housing. It also brings into discussion the issue of traditional projects which are thought and executed by technicians of government management (top-down perspective) and projects which promote local participation and empowerment, taking as reference the Urban PRORENDA. Finally, it presents a framework of Dunas Allotment, since its constitution, in four important moments which made it possible to move that community from a peripheric and subordinated position into a situation of empowerment in what concerns local and global power relationships. / Esta Dissertação analisa as práticas de implementação do PRORENDA Urbano no Loteamento Dunas e como esta experiência interferiu nas suas relações de poder, em especial no período de 1996 a 2001, e quais foram os seus desdobramentos e efeitos. Analisa a ascensão no Loteamento Dunas da perspectiva do terceiro setor: autonomia e empoderamento local, bem como a desarticulação do associativismo de moradores: luta por moradia. Também problematiza a perspectiva de projetos tradicionais pensados e executados por técnicos das gestões governamentais (de cima para baixo) e projetos que fomentam a participação e empoderamento local, tendo como referência o PRORENDA Urbano. Por fim, apresento uma moldura do Loteamento Dunas desde sua constituição em quatro grandes momentos que operacionalizaram o deslocamento do Loteamento Dunas de uma posição periférica e subordinada para uma situação de empoderamento nas relações de poder locais e globais.

La prévision quantitative des précipitations à l’aide des modèles météorologiques reste encore un grand défi posé à la communauté des sciences atmosphériques. En effet, deux problèmes majeurs sont généralement identifiés pour la prévision opérationnelle des précipitations et du climat : les interactions des systèmes précipitants avec le relief et avec la pollution. Cette thèse contribue à l’amélioration des prévisions de pluies. La stratégie adoptée est d’étudier des évènements précipitants en zones montagneuses en décrivant au mieux les interactions aérosol-nuage-précipitation à l’aide du modèle à microphysique mixte détaillée : DEtailed SCAvenging Model (DESCAM, Flossmann et Wobrock (2010)). Ce modèle utilise cinq distributions pour représenter les particules d’aérosol résiduelles et interstitielles ainsi que les gouttes et cristaux de glace. Le modèle a directement été comparé aux observations réalisées au cours de la campagne expérimentale COPS (Convective and Orographically induced Precipitation Study), qui a eu lieu pendant l’été 2007 à la frontière franco-allemande. En particulier, les simulations des pluies ont été comparées avec des observations de différents radars afin d’évaluer les performances du modèle mais aussi d’aider à l’interprétation des réflectivités de la bande brillante. La sensibilité par rapport à la pollution particulaire a été étudiée pour les propriétés des nuages et des précipitations. Pour les cas étudiés, plus le nombre des particules d’aérosol présentes dans l’atmosphère est important et plus leur solubilité est élevée, plus les précipitations au sol sont faibles. Ces comportements globaux peuvent toutefois être localement différents. Il existe donc des interactions plus complexes entre les particules d’aérosol, les nuages et les précipitations qui doivent être encore plus approfondies. / The quantitative precipitation forecast is still an important challenge for the atmospheric community. Indeed, two main problems are generally identified for weather and climate models : the interactions of the cloud systems with the topography and with pollution. This work contributes towards the improvement of the precipitation forecasts. The strategy used was to study the convective system over an area with a complex topography using the detailed microphysics scheme DEtailed SCAvenging Model (DESCAM, Flossmann and Wobrock (2010)) to better describe the aerosol-cloud-precipitation interactions. This microphysical scheme follows the evolution of the aerosol particle, drop and ice crystal distributions. Aerosol mass in drops and ice crystals is predicted by two distributions functions in order to close the aerosol budget. The model simulation results are compared with observations from COPS campaign (Convective and Orographically induced Precipitation Study), which took place at the French-German boarder during summer 2007. Rain simulations were compared with available radar data to evaluate the model’s performances and help the interpretation of the radar reflectivity in the bright band level. Sensitivity with respect to the particulate pollution was studied for in-cloud and precipitation properties. For the cases studied, the higher the aerosol particle number in the atmosphere or the higher the solubility of the aerosol particles, the weakest are the precipitation at the ground. These global behaviours of precipitation on the ground could be locally different. Consequently, the aerosol-cloud-precipitation interactions are complex and more in-depth studies are necessary.

Dans l’atmosphère, la matière organique est omniprésente et joue un rôle important par son action sur le bilan radiatif de la Terre et par son impact sur la santé publique notamment dans les zones fortement polluées. A ce jour plus de 10000 Composés Organiques Volatils différents ont été identifiés dans l’atmosphère. Leurs propriétés physico-chimiques (solubilité, volatilité, réactivité, …) sont variées et mal documentées. Leur distribution est perturbée par la présence de nuage qui représente un milieu réactif. L’objectif de cette thèse est d’évaluer la contribution des processus physico-chimiques sur la redistribution des COV à partir d'études numériques via le modèle de processus M2C2 (Model of Multiphase Cloud Chemistry). Les résultats sur les processus microphysiques en phase mixte ont montré que la rétention des composés chimiques dans les cristaux de glace qui grossissent principalement par givrage des gouttelettes de nuage, est un processus important dans la redistribution des espèces en phase gazeuse, comme la forme des cristaux (complexe ou sphérique). Par ailleurs, une intensité du givrage plus élevée entraîne un dégazage des composés chimiques dissous dans l’eau liquide nuageuse plus important et réparti sur une gamme de températures plus faibles dans le cas des cristaux complexes. La chimie en phase aqueuse du modèle M2C2 a été confrontée et calibrée avec des mesures effectuées lors d’expériences d’irradiations d’échantillons d’eau synthétique (i.e. de composition chimique connue). Ce travail a mis en évidence la complexité du système HxOy/fer et les incertitudes associées, notamment en présence de matière organique. Ces premières études ont montré la nécessité, dans le cas considéré, de prendre en compte la photolyse du complexe fer/oxalate à un seul ligand Fe(C2O4)+ et d'étudier expérimentalement la formation de complexes fer – acide formique en détail. Cette thèse aborde le développement de la chimie en phase aqueuse dans M2C2 en ajoutant les voies d’oxydation des composés organiques à deux atomes de carbone à partir de données expérimentales et d'analogie mécanistiques. Ce nouveau mécanisme a été testé sur un ensemble de scénarios académiques (urbain, rural et marin). Les résultats montrent, dans le cas d’un scénario urbain, que les COV influent sur l’évolution temporelle du radical hydroxyle en phase aqueuse à travers une modification importante de ses sources et de ses puits ; notamment par la présence de nouveaux complexes organiques avec le fer. Les alcools, transférés en phase aqueuse ne contribuent que très faiblement, par oxydation, aux aldéhydes dissous. Les aldéhydes sont issus principalement de la phase gazeuse. Enfin, les acides carboxyliques en phase aqueuse sont produits par oxydation des aldéhydes à un taux du même ordre de grandeur que celui de leur transfert de masse. / Organic matter is ubiquitous in the atmosphere and plays a key role on both Earth radiative budget and public health particularly in high pollution level areas. Up to now around 10000 different VOCs (Volatil Organic Compounds) were identified. Their physical and chemical properties (solubility, volatility, reactivity …) are highly variables and not fully documented. Their distribution is perturbed by cloud droplet which represents a reactive media. The aim of this thesis is to evaluate the physical and chemical processes contribution on VOCs distribution from numerical studies using the M2C2 (Model of Multiphase Cloud Chemistry) model. A detailed analysis of the microphysical rates and chemical rates linked to retention and burial effects show that for a moderate precipitating mixed-phase-cloud, the effect of the ice phase on gas phase composition is driven by riming of cloud droplets onto graupels, which leads to retention or not of soluble chemical species in the ice phase. Finally, the impact of crystal geometry on the efficiency of collection is studied together with its impact on the riming of cloud droplets on graupels and also on the retention of chemical species in ice phase. Numerical chemical outputs from M2C2 model were compared with experimental data that consisted of a time evolution of the concentrations of the target species. The chemical mechanism in the model describing the "oxidative engine" of the HxOy/iron chemical system was consistent with laboratory measurements. Thus, the degradation of the carboxylic acids evaluated was closely reproduced by the model. However, photolysis of the Fe(C2O4)+ complex needs to be considered in cloud chemistry models for polluted conditions (i.e., acidic pH) to correctly reproduce oxalic acid degradation. We also show that iron and formic acid lead to a stable complex whose photoreactivity has currently not been investigated. This thesis proposes the development of a new cloud chemical mechanism considering oxidative pathways of VOCs with 2-carbon atoms from experimental data and mechanism analogies. This new mechanism is tested using academic scenarios (urban, remote and marine). Results show that VOCs modify the sources and sinks of hydroxyl radical through the formation of new iron organic complexes in the case of urban scenario. In aqueous phase, alcohols concentrations are mainly drive by mass transfer and are not a significant source for aldehydes which are mostly produced in gaseous phase. Carboxylic acids are formed by aldehydes oxidation with a rate as a same order than their mass transfer.

La formation des systèmes convectifs est un processus complexe qui s'étend de l'échelle synoptique, avec la mise en place de circulations favorisant la convection, à la micro-échelle, avec les processus de formation et de croissance des hydrométéores. C'est aux échelles les plus fines que se concentre cette thèse dont l'objectif est d'étudier l'apport d'une microphysique complexe sur l'occurrence et la morphologie d'évènements fortement précipitants. La microphysique évaluée est celle du schéma LIMA, de type bulk à deux moments, capable de prendre en compte l'évolution d'une population d'aérosols multimodale et le traitement pronostique de son interaction avec les nuages et les précipitations. Dans un premier temps, l'apport de la microphysique de LIMA est évalué en comparaison à la microphysique bulk à un moment du schéma ICE3, moins sophistiqué et actuellement opérationnel à Météo-France dans le modèle AROME. Afin de mesurer l'apport de ce nouveau schéma sur la simulation de cas fortement précipitants tels que ceux qui touchent régulièrement le sud-est de la France à l'automne, deux cas d'étude de la campagne HyMeX ont été simulés avec Meso-NH et comparés aux nombreuses observations disponibles. Si l'évaluation des cumuls de précipitations montre un impact modéré de l'un ou l'autre des schémas microphysiques, l'écart est plus marqué en terme de composition et de structure des systèmes convectifs : la microphysique à 2 moments développe une structure verticale plus réaliste et introduit plus de variabilité sur les champs microphysiques. L'évaluation a aussi identifié des biais dans le schéma, notamment une surestimation des diamètres de gouttes de pluie. Des pistes d'amélioration de la microphysique de LIMA ont alors été proposées et évaluées sur les mêmes cas. Des tests de sensibilité à l'initialisation de la population d'aérosols ont ensuite été menés. Il s'avère que les aérosols n'affectent pas uniquement les hydrométéores primaires (gouttelettes d'eau nuageuse et cristaux de glace) mais aussi les autres hydrométéores, engendrant des impacts sur le développement des systèmes convectifs simulés, en termes de composition nuageuse et de précipitations. Les simulations avec une population d'aérosols réaliste initialisée à partir des analyses CAMS ont montré un impact modéré sur les cumuls de précipitations mais une amélioration plus significative de l'évolution temporelle du système (intensification, dissipation) et de la composition nuageuse, réduisant le diamètre des gouttes de pluie sur les cas d'étude. / The triggering and growth of Convective systems is a complex process that extends from the synoptic scale, with the establishment of atmospheric circulations promoting convection, to the microscale, with the formation and growth processes of hydrometeors. This PhD focuses on these finest scales and investigates the contribution of complex cloud-microphysics to the occurrence and morphology of heavy precipitation events. The two-moment microphysical scheme LIMA evaluated in this study takes into account the evolution of a multimodal aerosol population and the prognostic treatment of its interaction with liquid and ice clouds and precipitation. First, the contribution of LIMA is evaluated in comparison to the ICE3 one-moment bulk microphysical scheme, which is less sophisticated and currently operational in the AROME model at Météo-France. In order to measure the performance of this new scheme, two case studies of the HyMeX campaign were simulated with the Meso-NH model and compared to a wide variety of available measurements. The assessment of cumulative precipitation shows a moderate impact of each of these microphysical schemes, but the difference is more pronounced in terms of convective systems composition and structure: the two moment microphysics develops a more realistic vertical structure and introduces more microphysical variability. The evaluation also identified biases in the scheme (such as an overestimation of rain drop diameters). Some improvements to the implementation of LIMA were proposed and evaluated on the same cases. Then, the scheme is used to perform a sensitivity test to the aerosol population on the same case studies. Tests on the concentration of idealized populations have shown that aerosols do not only affect primary production of cloud droplets and ice crystals but also precipitating hydrometeors, causing impacts on the development of simulated convective systems in terms of cloud composition and generated precipitation. Simulations based on a realistic aerosol population initialized from CAMS analyses also showed a moderate impact on cumulative precipitation, but a more significant improvement on the temporal evolution of the system (intensification, dissipation) and cloud composition, leading to a reduction of rain drop diameters in the studied cases.

The use of numerical weather prediction (NWP) has brought significant improvements to severe weather outbreak forecasting; however, determination of the primary mode of severe weather (in particular tornadic and nontornadic outbreaks) continues to be a challenge. Uncertainty in model runs contributes to forecasting difficulty; therefore it is beneficial to a forecaster to understand the sources and magnitude of uncertainty in a severe weather forecast. This research examines the impact of data assimilation, microphysics parameterizations, and planetary boundary layer (PBL) physics parameterizations on severe weather forecast accuracy and model variability, both at a mesoscale and synoptic-scale level. NWP model simulations of twenty United States tornadic and twenty nontornadic outbreaks are generated. In the first research phase, each case is modeled with three different modes of data assimilation and a control. In the second phase, each event is modeled with 15 combinations of physics parameterizations: five microphysics and three PBL, all of which were designed to perform well in convective weather situations. A learning machine technique known as a support vector machine (SVM) is used to predict outbreak mode for each run for both the data assimilated model simulations and the different parameterization simulations. Parameters determined to be significant for outbreak discrimination are extracted from the model simulations and input to the SVM, which issues a diagnosis of outbreak type (tornadic or nontornadic) for each model run. In the third phase, standard synoptic parameters are extracted from the model simulations and a k-means cluster analysis is performed on tornadic and nontornadic outbreak data sets to generate synoptically distinct clusters representing atmospheric conditions found in each type of outbreak. Variations among the synoptic features in each cluster are examined across the varied physics parameterization and data assimilation runs. Phase I found that conventional and HIRS-4 radiance assimilation performs best of all examined assimilation variations by lowering false alarm ratios relative to other runs. Phase II found that the selection of PBL physics produces greater spread in the SVM classification ability. Phase III found that data assimilation generates greater model changes in the strength of synoptic-scale features than either microphysics or PBL physics parameterization.

Les particules d’aérosol sont une composante essentielle de l’atmosphère, et cette importance s’amplifie lors d’une éventuelle libération dans l’atmosphère de matières radioactives sous forme particulaire. En effet, pour améliorer la connaissance autour de la contamination des sols consécutive à une émission de particules, il est important d’étudier le rabattement des particules par la pluie sous le nuage. Dans ce but, des expériences sont menées à l’échelle microphysique (expérience BERGAME) pour quantifier l’efficacité des gouttes de pluie à collecter les particules. Ceci permet au final d’améliorer la modélisation du lessivage des aérosols atmosphériques par la pluie à méso-échelle. Le modèle utilisé est DESCAM qui décrit de manière détaillée les distributions granulométriques en masse et en nombre des particules pour chaque type d’aérosol et des hydrométéores et calcule leur évolution due aux processus microphysiques nuageux. L’expérience BERGAME a été dimensionnée et construite pour mesurer l’efficacité de collecte car les mesures de ce paramètre se sont avérées en désaccord avec les modèles classiques de la littérature pour les gouttes de pluie d’un diamètre supérieur au millimètre. Un montage optique a été imaginé pour tenter de comprendre quels mécanismes de collecte sont négligés dans les modèles standards. Un nouveau modèle d’efficacité de collecte pour les gouttes d’un diamètre de 2 mm est alors proposé prenant en compte pour les grosses gouttes une recirculation turbulente dans le sillage de la goutte capable d’augmenter de façon importante la capture des petites particules. Les nouvelles efficacités de collecte ainsi mesurées et paramétrées sont ajoutées au modèle de nuage DESCAM. Des modifications significatives sur la modélisation du lessivage par DESCAM sont observées, ouvrant ainsi la voie à une amélioration de la modélisation de la contamination des sols par les modèles de dispersion atmosphérique. / Aerosol particles are an important component of the atmosphere and are of great concern in the case of an accidental release of radioactive particles. To better understand ground contamination due to a particle release in the vicinity of an accident, it is important to study the particle scavenging associated with rain. To achieve this objective during this thesis, an experiment at the microphysical scale (BERGAME experiment) was developed and the modelling of the washout was improved at mesoscale. The model used was DESCAM : a microphysics model that describes the bin size distributions for aerosol particles and hydrometeors and calculates their evolution due to microphysical cloud processes. The BERGAME experiment was designed and built to measure the collection efficiencies which disagree with theoretical calculation. Using an optical method, it was shown that those discrepancies were due to rear capture. A new model of collection efficiencies for the 2 mm drops was proposed that takes into account for big raindrops the turbulent circulation occurring downstream increasing significantly the capture of small particles. The corrected collection efficiencies were implemented in the DESCAM model. By this way, significant modifications of the modelling were observed and studied. This is an important step toward an accurate modelling of the ground contamination in atmospheric dispersion models.