Les systèmes méandriformes construisent, à long terme, des architectures sédimentaires composées de corps poreux disséminés dans un volume de sédiments peu perméables. Ces corps sont susceptibles de contenir des ressources naturelles. Afin d'optimiser leur exploitation, il importe d'estimer la répartition et la connectivité de ces corps. À cet effet, Mines-Paristech développe Flumy, un logiciel de modélisation par processus de ces architectures . Cette thèse vise à améliorer la simulation de la migration dans Flumy en introduisant une influence.Pour cela, trois différents modèles ont été reliés entre eux et comparés. Le premier (modèle à pente constante) est celui actuellement en place dans Flumy, héritier des travaux de [Ikeda 1981] et dans lequel la pente de la surface du cours d'eau est constante. Le deuxième (modèle à pente variable) fut proposé par [Lopez 2003]. Il attribue à la surface libre la pente locale de la topographie. Enfin, un dernier modèle (modèle Saint Venant) a été élaboré en modifiant le précédent. L'écoulement moyen, initialement calculé sous une surface libre connue, est désormais obtenu par résolution des équations de Saint Venant sur un fond connu. Ces trois modèles ont été appliqués à la migration à long terme de méandres libres. Les modèles à pente constante et à pente variable ont également été utilisés pour reproduire les méandres confinés de deux rivières canadiennes, la Beaver et la Red Deer.Les résultats montrent un développement plus réaliste des méandres simulés avec le modèle à pente variable que de ceux simulés avec le modèle à pente constante. Cette amélioration est observable dans les méandres isolés (ralentissement de la vitesse d'extension) et dans les trains de méandres (confinement en ceintures de méandres). Le modèle à pente variable permet également une meilleure reproduction de la morphologie des méandres confinés. L'utilisation du modèle Saint Venant apporte les mêmes améliorations dans la simulation des méandres libres, quoique moins prononcées. Il permet surtout de construire une surface libre physique sur une grande variété de fonds, résolvant ainsi une limite identifiée dans le modèle à pente variable. / Over a long time, Meandering systems build sedimentary architectures composed of porous bodies scattered inside a volume of low-permeability sediments. These bodies may contain natural resources. In order to optimize their mining, it is essential to estimate the distribution and connectivity of such bodies. To this end, Mines ParisTech develops Flumy, a process-based model simulating the formation of these architectures. This thesis aims to improve the simulation of the migration in Flumy by taking into consideration the influence of the local slope.For this purpose, three distinct models were considered in conjunction, and compared. The first one (constant slope model), which constitutes the basis of the current Flumy version, was originally developed by [Ikeda 1981]. The second model (variable slope model), developed by [Lopez 2003], assigns to the free surface the slope of the surrounding topography. Finally, the last model (Saint-Venant model) has been derived from the variable slope model. Initially calculated under a known free surface, the mean flow in each cross-section is now obtained by solving the Saint-Venant equations over a known river bed. Each of those three models has been applied to the simulation of free meanders. Moreover, the constant-slope and variable slope models have been used to reproduce the confined meanders of two Canadian streams.The results point to a more realistic meanders development using the variable slope model than with the constant slope model. This improvement can particularly be observed in individual meanders, whose rate of extension decreases with the age. It is also noticeable in the overall river behavior, which self-confines in a meander belt. The specific morphology of the confined meanders is also better reproduced using the variable slope model than with the constant slope model. Lastly, though a lesser extent, the Saint-Venant model shows the same advantages than the variable slope model. In addition, it allows the construction of a physically meaningful free surface over a wide range of beds and, in doing so, resolves a limit of the variable slope model.

<p> Since the classic study of migration and metropolitan growth by Lowry (1966), migration researchers have assumed a two-stage process wherein the decision to migrate is followed by the destination choice decision. Such an approach is employed here, to provide a characterization and explanation of the destination choice patterns of the male labour force entrants.</p> <p> Specifically, a nonlinear migration model, developed by Liaw and Bartels (1982), is applied to Canadian migration data for the 1971-76 period. The inter-metropolitan migration patterns of the male labour force entrants is found to be well explained by six explanatory variables: population size, logarithmic distance, housing growth, employment increase, cultural barriers and "strong ties". The last two variables are dummy variables derived from the characterization of the destination choice patterns through the application of entropies. The study examines factors involved in the destination choice decision and concludes with suggestions for future investigation.</p> / Thesis / Candidate in Philosophy

Spain has an intricate relationship with their previous colonies. Relationships built up through centuries of intermingling have resulted in favourable integration trajectories for migrants from previous colonies in comparison with migrants from other countries. First through explicit favourable legislation, however this changed when Spain entered the European Union, meaning that the legislation had to be in line with the idea of controlled migration followed by the European Union. However, through the culturization, laborization and the criminalization of migration, it could be argued that migrants from previous colonies are still more favoured in comparison with migrants from different regions, exemplified by riots fueled by racism against labour migrants from North Africa in El Ejido in 2000. Besides the relationship with their previous colonies, Spain also has a long history with Northern Africa in which Maurophobia has played a significant role. This comparative case study compares the integration trajectory of two different migrant groups from both Latin America and Africa within Spain, more specifically into the local context of La Coruña. Even though Spain, and in the broader perspective the EU, are the authorities which create the legislation regarding migration and integration, the local authorities are the ones responsible for the implementation of these legislations. This study aims to demonstrate the importance of the analysis of integration in the local context as these could vastly differ from place to place, even within the borders of a nation-state. This case study compares the integration trajectory of Senegalese and Peruvian migrants within the context of La Coruña regarding access to the welfare state and the labour market.

Cette thèse de doctorat part du constat qu'un portefeuille de crédit est soumis à plusieurs risques qui proviennent principalement de la qualité de crédit de l'emprunteur et de son comportement de tirage et de pré-paiement sur ses lignes de crédit. Il s'avère que les risques observés sont dynamiques et dépendent de facteurs divers, autant micro que macro-économiques.Nous avons eu la volonté de comprendre l'articulation de ces risques pour avoir une gestion efficace de ceux-ci dans le présent, mais aussi une vision prospective si les conditions économiques changent, cela pour une gestion pro-active. Pour traiter cette problématique, nous avons articulé nos recherches autour de trois axes qui ont abouti à trois chapitres sous forme d'articles.(i) Analyse des changements des notations de crédit en fonction des facteurs de risque.L'utilisation des modèles de migration multi-factoriels nous a permis de reproduire des faits stylisés cités dans la littérature et d'en identifier d'autres. Nous reconstituons aussi le cycle économique entre 2006 et 2014 qui réussit à capter les crises de 2008 et 2012.(ii) Conception d'un modèle de cash-flow qui tient compte de l'évolution des comportements des emprunteurs sous l'influence de leurs environnements micro et macro-économiques.Nous prouvons l'influence de la notation de crédit, du cycle économique, du taux de recouvrement estimé et du taux d'intérêt court terme sur les taux d'utilisation. Ce modèle permet aussi d'obtenir des mesures de risque comme le Cash Flow-at-Risk et le Stressed Cash Flow-at-Risk sur des portefeuilles de crédit grâce à des simulations de Monte Carlo.(iii) Réflexion sur la Disposition-à-Payer (DAP) d'un décideur neutre à l'ambiguïté pour réduire le risque en présence d'incertitude sur les probabilités. Nous montrons que la présence de plusieurs sources d'ambiguïté (possiblement corrélées) change le bien-être d'un décideur averse au risque bien que celui-ci soit neutre à l'ambigüité / This thesis starts from the observation that a credit portfolio is subject to several risks, mainly due to the credit quality of the borrower and his behavior toward his credit lines (drawdown or prepayment). It turns out that the observed risks are dynamic and depend on various factors, both micro and macroeconomic. Our goal in one hand is to understand the articulation of these risks in order to efficiently manage them in the current time, in the other hand, we want to have a forward looking vision of these risks with respect to the changes in the economic conditions in order to have a pro-active management. To address our objectives, we have articulated our research on three axes that have resulted in three chapters in the form of articles.(i) Analysis of changes in the credit ratings with respect to risk factors. The use of factor migration models allowed us to reproduce some stylized facts mentioned in academic literature and to identify some others. We have also estimated the business cycle between2006 and 2014, which manages to capture the crises of 2008 and 2012.(ii) Design of a cash-_ow model that considers the changes in borrowers' behavior under the influence of their micro and macroeconomic environments. We prove the influence of the credit ratings, business cycle, estimated recovery rates and short-term interest rates on the utilization rates of a credit line. This model also provides risk measures such as Cash Flow-at-Risk and Stressed Cash Flow-at-Risk on credit portfolio using Monte Carlo simulations.(iii) Discussion on the Willingness-to-Pay (WTP) of an ambiguity neutral decision maker (DM) in order to reduce the risk in presence of ambiguity over probabilities. We show that the introduction of ambiguity through several ambiguity sources modifies the welfare level of all ambiguity-neutral and risk-averse DM when ambiguity and risk interact

人口政策的制定需要人口推估作基礎。近年世界各國人口推估逐漸從專家意見推估走向機率推估，常見的機率推估分成三大類，隨機推估、模擬情境、推估誤差三種，本文所使用的人口推估方法為隨機推估法結合生育率之模擬情境方法，在人口變動要素組合法 (Cohort Component Method) 之下輔以電腦模擬的區塊拔靴法 (Block Bootstrap)，針對台灣地區與台灣北、中、南、東四地區進行人口推估。另外，本文試圖在隨機模型人口推估中加入遷移人口之考量，以期針對遷移人口在數量與其影響上都能有較深入的了解，比較區塊拔靴法與經建會推估之差異後發現遷移之考量確實會影響人口推估之結果。 / 針對與全區相符的小區域人口推估，本文亦提出可使得推估一致的方法，但其缺點為限制了生育、死亡人口要素之變動性。此推估在總數上與隨機推估方法差異不大，但在人口結構上則有明顯的差別，此差別可能是來自於死亡率在四區間差異造成。 / Population projection is important to policy making, and only with accurate population projection can the government achieve suitable policy planning and improve the welfare of the society. The most popular and well-known population projection method is the Cohort Component method, proposed since 1930’s. The trends of future fertility, mortality and migration are required, in order to apply the cohort component method. Currently in Taiwan, these trends are determined according to experts’ opinions (or scenario projection) and three future scenarios are assumed: high, median and low scenarios. One of the drawbacks in applying experts’ opinions is that the projection results of these three scenarios do not have the meaning in probability. / To modify the expert’ opinions and let the projection results carry the meaning in probability, many demographic researchers have developed stochastic projection methods. The proposed stochastic methods can be categorized into three groups: stochastic forecast, random scenario and ex post methods. In this study, we introduce these stochastic methods and evaluate the possibility of applying the methods in projecting the population in Taiwan. / In this study we use block bootstrap, a computer simulation and stochastic forecast method, to determine the trends of future fertility, mortality and migration in Taiwan, and combine it with the cohort component method for population projection in Taiwan. We compare the projection results with those from the Council for Economic Planning and Development (a scenario projection). We found that the block bootstrap is a possible alternative to the scenario projection in population projection, and the numbers of migration is small but have a non-ignorable influence on the future population. However, we also found that the block bootstrap alone might not be appropriate for population projection in small areas.

Over the past 30 years South Africa has lost valuable human capital due to high volumes of emigration. South Africa has also seen numerous changes in its political, economic and social structure specifically in these decades, but little investigation has been done into the possibility of an association between political, economic and social, as well as personal factors, and the decision to leave South Africa. This study refers to Lee’s Migration Model (1966) that was used as a broad theory for migration. The model involves four sets of factors: factors associated with the area of origin, factors associated with the area of destination, intervening obstacles and personal factors. Maslow’s Hierarchy of Needs Theory also explains the personal motivational theory for migration. Lee’s Model of Migration is used to investigate which political, economic, social and personal factors in the area of origin (South Africa) pushed South African emigrants to leave the country. It also investigates which political, economic, social and personal factors in the area of destination (Australia and New Zealand) pulled South African emigrants toward these countries. This study involved mixed-methods research (Creswell, 2009), thus the data collection methods were both qualitative and quantitative. The study followed a sequential exploratory strategy in two stages with the qualitative data collection occurring first, followed by a quantitative study – ‘QUALquan’ study. The data are mixed between analysis of the qualitative data and the quantitative data collection (Creswell, 2009:211). The qualitative data collection instruments used in the first stage of the study in 2009, were face-to-face interviews consisting of one focus group and six personal interviews in New Zealand, as well as twelve personal interviews in Australia. In the second stage of the study in 2015, namely the quantitative research, respondents were selected by contacting 17 closed (secured) Facebook groups that were formed for South Africans living either in Australia or New Zealand. There is no alternative sampling frame available since emigrants do not need to declare themselves as migrants on a work visa, furthermore, official documentation is not accessible to the public. A quantitative data collection instrument was administered with an online questionnaire. In the Australian Facebook groups, 137 respondents completed the questionnaire, and in New Zealand Facebook groups, 118 respondents, which adds up to a total of 255 respondents who completed the questionnaire. The results concluded that South Africa’s governance framework, its infrastructure and legislation acted as political push factors motivating South Africans to emigrate, while an uncertain economy contributed as an economic push factor. Socially, a perception of a limited future and a narcissistic society is what pushed South Africans to emigrate. Personal push factors that drove the emigration decision included, unmet physical, safety, belonging and esteem needs. The political factors that pulled South African emigrants to Australia and New Zealand involved effective government services and governmental aid. Economic pull factors included economic certainty and a lower cost of living. Social pull factors proved to be familiar circumstances and a better future. Personal pull factors were safety, belonging and self-actualisation needs. This mixed-method approach focussed on the gap to a followup study that was identified in previous individual qualitative and quantitative studies. These results may assist the South African government to take measures that ensures the retention of highly skilled citizens. / Business Management / M. Com. (Business Management)

The process of cell-sorting is essential for development and maintenance of tissues. With the Differential Adhesion Hypothesis, Steinberg proposed that cellsorting is determined by quantitative differences in cell-type-specific intercellular adhesion strengths. An implementation of the Differential Adhesion Hypothesis is the Differential Migration Model by Voss-Böhme and Deutsch. There, an effective adhesion parameter was derived analytically for systems with two cell types, which predicts the asymptotic sorting pattern. However, the existence and form of such a parameter for more than two cell types is unclear. Here, we generalize analytically the concept of an effective adhesion parameter to three and more cell types and demonstrate its existence numerically for three cell types based on in silico time-series data that is produced by a cellular-automaton implementation of the Differential Migration Model. Additionally, we classify the segregation behavior using statistical learning methods and show that the estimated effective adhesion parameter for three cell types matches our analytical prediction. Finally, we demonstrate that the effective adhesion parameter can resolve a recent dispute about the impact of interfacial adhesion, cortical tension and heterotypic repulsion on cell segregation. / Der Prozess der Zellsortierung ist für die Entwicklung und Erhaltung von Geweben unerlässlich. Mit der Differentiellen Adhäsionshypothese schlug Steinberg vor, dass die Zellsortierung durch quantitative Unterschiede in den zelltypspezifischen interzellulären Adhäsionsstärken bestimmt wird. Eine Umsetzung der Differentiellen Adhäsionshypothese ist das Differentielle Migrationsmodell von Voss-Böhme und Deutsch. In diesem wurde für Systeme mit zwei Zelltypen ein effektiver Adhäsionsparameter analytisch hergeleitet, der das asymptotische Sortiermuster vorhersagt. Die Existenz und Form eines solchen Parameters für mehr als zwei Zelltypen ist jedoch unklar. Hier verallgemeinern wir analytisch das Konzept eines effektiven Adhäsionsparameters für drei und mehr Zelltypen und zeigen numerisch seine Existenz für drei Zelltypen auf der Basis von in silico Zeitreihendaten, die von einem zellulären Automaten des Differentiellen Migrationsmodells erzeugt werden. Darüber hinaus klassifizieren wir das Segregationsverhalten mithilfe statistischer Lernverfahren und zeigen, dass der geschätzte effektive Adhäsionsparameter für drei Zelltypen mit unserer analytischen Vorhersage übereinstimmt. Schließlich zeigen wir, dass der effektive Adhäsionsparameter eine kürzlich aufgekommene Diskussion über den Einfluss von Grenzflächenadhäsion, Kortikalspannung und heterotypischer Abstoßung auf die Zellsegregation lösen kann.