This study investigates the role played by corporate governance in the firm's decision to disclose forward-looking information in financial reports, as well as the quality of such reports. More effective corporate governance has often been linked to voluntary disclosure within the annual report (Karamanou and Vafeas 2005). Similarly, recent studies document a positive association between reporting quality and the standard of corporate governance (Wright 2001). This study proposes that stronger corporate governance will be associated with increased forward-looking disclosures in financial reports and higher financial reporting quality. The results indicate that audit quality, the presence and quality of board committees and the overall efficacy of corporate governance are positively associated with forward-looking disclosures in 2000. However, corporate governance does not have a positive association with such disclosures in 2002. Regarding the relationship between financial reporting quality and corporate governance, audit quality is the only governance variable that yields a significant result and is only associated with higher reporting quality in 2002.

The relevance and reliability of annual financial reports as a basis for making decisions about an organisation came in dispute after a series of corporate collapses. Sustainability reports have similarly suffered weaknesses and stakeholders are unable to form a comprehensive picture of an organisation’s performance and its ability to create and sustain value. Integrated reporting incorporates concise and material information from financial statements and the sustainability report and other sources to enable stakeholders to evaluate the organisation’s performance and to make an informed assessment about its ability to create and sustain value. The focus of this study was to investigate the opinion of employees as stakeholders of a South African bank and their perception of the relevance of the elements in an integrated report, if they had to assess the ability of an organisation to sustain value in the future. A literature study was conducted to address the concept of integrated reporting and the integrated report as well as relevant aspects. Based on the literature study, integrated reporting should enable stakeholders to assess the ability of the organisation to create and sustain value over the short-, medium- and long-term. Special attention has been given to the elements to be included in an integrated report as suggested by the IRC SA’s framework and employees as stakeholders of organisations. The latter has been used as basis of the empirical study that was conducted. The empirical study focused on the opinion of employees regarding the relevance of the eight elements in an integrated report as stakeholders of a South African bank and it was conducted by means of a self-completion questionnaire. The internal consistency and reliability of the questionnaire was assessed by calculating Cronbach alpha coefficients and it had acceptable reliability. Frequency distributions, mean values and standard deviations were calculated as well as independent t-tests and Anovas to determine the differences between the means of different groups within the selected demographic variables and the constructs. Furthermore, effect size values (d-values) were used to indicate if there were practical significant differences between any demographical variables regarding the constructs and individual questions. In the final chapter, conclusions were drawn based on the literature and empirical study. It was evident from the empirical study that most of the respondents found the elements to be either moderately or totally relevant to be included in a report, if the ability of an organisation has to be assessed to sustain value in the future. Recommendations were provided on three elements (business model, remuneration policies and analytical commentary) and the report was concluded by recommending possible future research that could be conducted based on this study. / Thesis (MBA)--North-West University, Potchefstroom Campus, 2013

The relevance and reliability of annual financial reports as a basis for making decisions about an organisation came in dispute after a series of corporate collapses. Sustainability reports have similarly suffered weaknesses and stakeholders are unable to form a comprehensive picture of an organisation’s performance and its ability to create and sustain value. Integrated reporting incorporates concise and material information from financial statements and the sustainability report and other sources to enable stakeholders to evaluate the organisation’s performance and to make an informed assessment about its ability to create and sustain value. The focus of this study was to investigate the opinion of employees as stakeholders of a South African bank and their perception of the relevance of the elements in an integrated report, if they had to assess the ability of an organisation to sustain value in the future. A literature study was conducted to address the concept of integrated reporting and the integrated report as well as relevant aspects. Based on the literature study, integrated reporting should enable stakeholders to assess the ability of the organisation to create and sustain value over the short-, medium- and long-term. Special attention has been given to the elements to be included in an integrated report as suggested by the IRC SA’s framework and employees as stakeholders of organisations. The latter has been used as basis of the empirical study that was conducted. The empirical study focused on the opinion of employees regarding the relevance of the eight elements in an integrated report as stakeholders of a South African bank and it was conducted by means of a self-completion questionnaire. The internal consistency and reliability of the questionnaire was assessed by calculating Cronbach alpha coefficients and it had acceptable reliability. Frequency distributions, mean values and standard deviations were calculated as well as independent t-tests and Anovas to determine the differences between the means of different groups within the selected demographic variables and the constructs. Furthermore, effect size values (d-values) were used to indicate if there were practical significant differences between any demographical variables regarding the constructs and individual questions. In the final chapter, conclusions were drawn based on the literature and empirical study. It was evident from the empirical study that most of the respondents found the elements to be either moderately or totally relevant to be included in a report, if the ability of an organisation has to be assessed to sustain value in the future. Recommendations were provided on three elements (business model, remuneration policies and analytical commentary) and the report was concluded by recommending possible future research that could be conducted based on this study. / Thesis (MBA)--North-West University, Potchefstroom Campus, 2013

Este trabalho tem por objetivo discutir as metodologias de estimação da PD utilizadas na indústria financeira. Além disso, contextualizar a aplicação do trabalho ao IFRS9 e seu direcionamento para o tema de Risco de Crédito. Historicamente os grandes bancos múltiplos utilizam variadas metodologias econométricas para modelar a Probabilidade de Descumprimento (PD),um dos métodos mais tradicionais é a regressão logística, entretanto com a necessidade do cálculo da Perda Esperada de Crédito através do IFRS9, se torna necessário mudar o paradigma de estimação para uma abordagem forward-looking, isto está sendo interpretado por muitas instituições e consultorias como a inclusão de fatores e variáveis projetadas dentro do processo de estimação, ou seja, não serão utilizados apenas os dados históricos para prever o descumprimento ou inadimplência. Dentro deste contexto será proposto uma abordagem que une a estimação da Probabilidade de Descumprimento com a inclusão de um fator foward-looking. / This paper aims to discuss the methodologies used to estimate the Probability Of Default used in the financial industry. In addition, contextualize the application of the work to IFRS9 requirements and its targeting to the Credit Risk theme. Historically large multi-banks use a variety of econometric methodologies to model the Probability of Default, one of the more traditional methods is logistic regression. However, with the need to calculate the expected credit loss through IFRS9, it becomes necessary to change the estimation paradigm to a forwardlooking approach, this is being interpreted by many institutions and consultancies companies as the inclusion of factors and variables projected within the estimation process, that is, not only historical data are used to predict the default. Within this context will be proposed an approach that joins the estimation of Probability of Default with the inclusion of a forward-looking factor.

Made available in DSpace on 2015-05-08T14:44:50Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Arquivototal.pdf: 0 bytes, checksum: d41d8cd98f00b204e9800998ecf8427e (MD5) Previous issue date: 2012-08-13 / Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior / This paper estimates a reaction function with forward-looking time-varying parameters for changes in the Brazilian monetary policy under inflation targeting regime. As the policy rule has endogenous regressors, the conventional Kalman filter can t be applied. Thus, a two-step procedure of the type Heckman (1976) is used to estimate the hyperparameters consistent model. The results show that: i) there is strong empirical evidence of endogeneity of the regressors of monetary policy rule, ii) the expected interest rate was above 10% throughout the analysis period to an average of 11%; iii) response the Selic rate to inflation varies considerably throughout the period and has shown a declining trend, iv) the response of interest rates relative to inflation deviation from the target with the principle of Taylor; v) the coefficient of smoothing rate interest has been constant throughout the period; vi) that the BCB had in much of the period analyzed an aversion recession by allowing inflation above target. / Este trabalho estima uma função de reação forward-looking com parâmetros variando no tempo para verificar mudanças na condução da política monetária brasileira sob o regime de metas de inflação. Como a regra de política apresenta regressores endógenos, o filtro de Kalman convencional não pode ser aplicado. Diante disso, um procedimento em dois passos do tipo de Heckman (1976) é utilizado para estimação consistente dos hiperparâmetros do modelo. Os resultados mostram que: i) há forte evidência empírica de endogeneidade dos regressores da regra de política monetária; ii) que a taxa de juros esperada esteve acima de 10% durante todo o período analisado, tendo uma média de 11%; iii) a resposta da taxa Selic à inflação varia consideravelmente ao longo do período e tem mostrado uma tendência decrescente; iv) a resposta da taxa de juros em relação ao desvio da inflação a meta respeita o princípio de Taylor; v) o coeficiente de suavização da taxa de juros foi constante durante todo o período analisado; vi) que o BCB teve em boa parte do período analisado uma aversão recessão, permitindo uma inflação acima da meta.

Este trabalho tem por objetivo discutir as metodologias de estimação da PD utilizadas na indústria financeira. Além disso, contextualizar a aplicação do trabalho ao IFRS9 e seu direcionamento para o tema de Risco de Crédito. Historicamente os grandes bancos múltiplos utilizam variadas metodologias econométricas para modelar a Probabilidade de Descumprimento (PD),um dos métodos mais tradicionais é a regressão logística, entretanto com a necessidade do cálculo da Perda Esperada de Crédito através do IFRS9, se torna necessário mudar o paradigma de estimação para uma abordagem forward-looking, isto está sendo interpretado por muitas instituições e consultorias como a inclusão de fatores e variáveis projetadas dentro do processo de estimação, ou seja, não serão utilizados apenas os dados históricos para prever o descumprimento ou inadimplência. Dentro deste contexto será proposto uma abordagem que une a estimação da Probabilidade de Descumprimento com a inclusão de um fator foward-looking. / This paper aims to discuss the methodologies used to estimate the Probability Of Default used in the financial industry. In addition, contextualize the application of the work to IFRS9 requirements and its targeting to the Credit Risk theme. Historically large multi-banks use a variety of econometric methodologies to model the Probability of Default, one of the more traditional methods is logistic regression. However, with the need to calculate the expected credit loss through IFRS9, it becomes necessary to change the estimation paradigm to a forwardlooking approach, this is being interpreted by many institutions and consultancies companies as the inclusion of factors and variables projected within the estimation process, that is, not only historical data are used to predict the default. Within this context will be proposed an approach that joins the estimation of Probability of Default with the inclusion of a forward-looking factor.

The aim of this study is to investigate how teachers say they give and perceive forward-looking feedback (feedforward) on pupils’ texts in grades three and four. To collect material for this purpose, semi-structured interviews were conducted with six teachers in the early years of compulsory school. The material from the interviews was analysed with the help of the mid-range coding method. The analysis was based on the two theoretical premises for the study, the sociocultural perspective and the formative attitude. The result shows that the teachers use several methods and devices for forward-looking feedback on the pupils’ process and on their first draft. These included questioning, assignment, checklist and digital tools. The study also revealed three central aspects of the teachers’ perceptions of their forward-looking feedback: shortage of time, organizational conditions and the pupils’ maturity. In view of the current lacuna in research on forward-looking feedback in the early years of compulsory school, the results of the study can contribute to inspiring, in-depth and effective knowledge and tools for practising forward-looking feedback.

Estimation of the covariance matrix of asset returns is a key component of portfolio optimization. Inherent in any estimation technique is the capacity to inaccurately reflect current market conditions. Typical of Markowitz portfolio optimization theory, which we use as the basis for our analysis, is to assume that asset returns are stationary. This assumption inevitably causes an optimized portfolio to fail during a market crash since estimates of covariance matrices of asset returns no longer re ect current conditions. We use the market crash of 2008 to exemplify this fact. A current industry standard benchmark for estimation is the Ledoit covariance matrix, which attempts to adjust a portfolio's aggressiveness during varying market conditions. We test this technique against the CALM (Covariance Adjustment for Liability Management Method), which incorporates forward-looking signals for market volatility to reduce portfolio variance, and assess under certain criteria how well each model performs during recent market crash. We show that CALM should be preferred against the sample convariance matrix and Ledoit covariance matrix under some reasonable weight constraints.

A presente tese, a partir de três ensaios, faz uso de diferentes especificações da curva de Phillips, para discutir distintos objetivos embasados em assuntos relevantes como o processo de determinação de preços e seus custos sociais para a economia brasileira. Neste sentido, o primeiro ensaio utiliza de uma equação de transferência para a especificação da curva de Phillips, a partir do método das variáveis instrumentais, para alcançar a taxa de desemprego não aceleradora da inflação (NAIRU). Este método, para dados trimestrais de 2000 a 2013, possibilitou identificar uma mudança no coeficiente de correlação entre a taxa de desemprego e a taxa de inflação, que passou de um trade-off (negativo) para uma relação positiva, além da permanência da taxa NAIRU acima da taxa de desemprego no período em questão. Preocupando-se com este resultado expressivo, o segundo ensaio se comprometeu em analisar se esse adveio de possíveis não linearidades presentes na curva, preocupação que já havia sido retratada pelo trabalho seminal de Phillips (1958), indicando que a relação da taxa de variação dos salários nominais e a taxa de desemprego seria altamente não linear. Nesse contexto, utilizando o modelo de vetores autorregressivos que considera a não-linearidade dos parâmetros (quebras estruturais), variáveis exógenas de controle (para contornar o problema de omissão de variáveis) para o período de 1995 a 2014, estimou-se a Curva de Phillips Novo-Keynesiana Hibrida (CPNKH) para identificar possíveis quebras estruturais para dados da economia brasileira. O modelo estimado foi caracterizado por um MSIH(2)VAR(1) e foi possível confirmar a não linearidade a partir do teste da razão de verossimilhança, com a identificação de dois períodos bem distintos ao longo da amostra. Além disso, foi verificada uma representatividade maior para o termo inercial (Backward Looking) indicando que as expectativas de inflação contribuem menos para a explicação do processo inflacionário recente da economia brasileira. Uma vez que um dos principais objetivos do Regime de Metas de Inflação (RMI) é ancorar a formação de preços a partir das expectativas futuras dos agentes econômicos, além disso, dada a não linearidade encontrada para dados da economia brasileira no segundo ensaio, e dada as diferentes significâncias, importâncias e patamares para os componentes da curva que representam as expectativas (futuras e passadas), o terceiro ensaio se comprometeu em, ao invés de confiar exclusivamente em uma única medida de tendência central, analisar os quantis de toda a distribuição condicional da variável resposta (taxa de inflação). Utilizando do método da regressão quantílica inversa, que utiliza os blocos em movimento bootstrap de Fitzenberger (1997), descrito por Chernozhukov e Hansen (2005), para o período de maio de 2001 a agosto de 2016, foi possível identificar a importância adquirida pelas expectativas futuras ao longo dos períodos analisados. Quando se faz estimações considerando somente a média condicional, o termo inercial é maior e significativo para praticamente todas as especificações e modelos apresentados. Utilizando do modelo da regressão quantílica inversa, por outro lado, é possível verificar que o termo Forward Looking ganha força e domina o Backward Looking nos três períodos analisados, em diferentes níveis de inflação, demonstrando, assim, o comportamento assimétrico (não linear) do processo inflacionário. Desta forma, foi possível mostrar o amadurecimento do objetivo do RMI e averiguar que os componentes expectacionais da CPNKH, para dados da economia brasileira, foram capazes de manter sua importância e significância em toda distribuição condicional no processo de determinação de preços recente. / The present dissertation, based on three essays, makes use of different specifications for the Phillips curve, to discuss different objectives based on relevant issues such as the process of price determination and its social costs for the Brazilian economy. In this sense, the first assay uses a transfer equation for the specification of the Phillips curve, using the instrumental variables method, to reach the non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment (NAIRU). This method, for quarterly data from 2000 to 2013, enable the identification of a change in the coefficient of correlation between the unemployment rate and the inflation rate, which transitioned from a trade-off to a positive relation, in addition to the permanence of the NAIRU above the unemployment rate in the period in question. Concerning with this expressive result, the second essay undertook to analyze whether this resulted from possible non-linearities present in the curve, a concern that had already been portrayed by the seminal work of Phillips (1958), indicating that the relation of the rate of change of wages and the unemployment rate would be highly non-linear. In this context, using the autoregressive vector model that considers the non-linearity of the parameters (structural breaks), exogenous variables of control (to circumvent the problem of omission of variables) for the period from 1995 to 2014, it was estimated the Phillips New-Keynesian Hybrid (CPNKH) to identify possible structural breaks for Brazilian economy data. The estimated model was characterized by a MSIH (2) VAR (1) and it was possible to confirm the nonlinearity from the likelihood ratio test, with the identification of two distinct periods throughout the sample. In addition, it was verified a greater representativeness for the inertial term (Backward Looking), indicating that the expectations of inflation contributed less to the explanation of the recent inflationary process of the Brazilian economy. Since one of the main objectives of the Inflation Targeting Regime (ITR) is to anchor the formation of prices based on the future expectations of the economic agents, in addition, given the non-linearity found for the data of the Brazilian economy in the second essay, and considering the different significance, importance and thresholds for the components of the curve that represent (future and past) expectations, the third assay committed to, instead of relying solely on a single measure of central tendency, analyze the quantiles of the entire conditional distribution of the response variable (inflation rate). Using the reverse quantum regression method, which uses the Fitzenberger (1997) bootstrap blocks, described by Chernozhukov and Hansen (2005), for the period from May 2001 to August 2016, it was possible to identify the importance acquired by the expectations over the periods analyzed. When estimating only the conditional average, the inertial term is larger and significant for practically all the specifications and models presented. On the other hand, it is possible to verify the Forward Looking term gaining importance and dominating the Backward Looking in the three analyzed periods, at different levels of inflation, thus, demonstrating the asymmetric (non-linear) behavior of the inflationary process. In this way, it was possible to show the maturity of the objective of the ITR as to verify that the expected components of the CPNKH for the Brazilian economy data were able to maintain its importance and significance in all conditional distribution in the recent pricing process.

The purpose of this study is to investigate how different incentive contracts that include forward-looking and contemporaneous goals motivate managers to make decisions consistent with the organization’s long-term objectives, in tasks of varying complexity. Two research questions are addressed. First, in a long-term horizon setting, how do incentive contracts based on various combinations of forward-looking and contemporaneous measures influence decisions? Second, how does task complexity influence the expected effect of various incentive contracts on management decisions? I address my research questions using a multi-period experiment where I compare the effects of three different incentive structure types and two different levels of task complexity. Results show that in a low complexity task, individuals perform better when only contemporaneous goal attainment is rewarded in the incentive contract than when both forward-looking and contemporaneous goal attainment is rewarded. In a high complexity task, individuals perform better when both contemporaneous and forward-looking goal attainment is rewarded, but only when the contemporaneous goal attainment is weighted more heavily in the incentive contract. My research contributes to the existing literature in two ways. First, this is the first study of which I am aware that compares the performance effects of long-term incentive contracts that reward forward-looking and contemporaneous goal attainment. Second, this study is the first of which I am aware to experimentally test incentive contracts, for employees with a long-term horizon, that incorporate various weightings of forward-looking measures in the contract. In addition, this study will be amongst the first to examine the impact of task complexity on incentive contract effectiveness.