Mass demographic changes in the ethnic and racial composition of the United States since the 1960s are commonly considered a force driving major transformations in contemporary American politics. In political science, there are longstanding research traditions that examine the political implications of demographic change: how demographic change leads to growing intergroup political contestation over political power and public policies; how demographic changes lead to shifts in the group bases of partisan support; how demographic changes are associated with changes in the demographic composition of politicians and elected officials; and how the changing face of America affects the political responsiveness of elected officials to historically underrepresented but increasingly prominent segments of the population. Despite the proliferation of empirical studies on these topics, numerous causal claims central to broader arguments about the political implications of demographic change deserve greater theoretical and empirical scrutiny. In this dissertation, I make use of novel datasets and methods for descriptive and causal inference to contribute more credible evidence that test these claims and develop new avenues of research.

Thesis (DPhil)--Stellenbosch University, 1981. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: The purpose of this dissertation is the development of an operational analytical model to illustrate the possibility of successfully resolving or managing conflict in plural societies by effectively accommodating different geographically dispersed ethnic groups as groups in democratic constitutional structures and processes in these societies. The few existing models or theories of this kind (i e pluralism, consociationalism, corporatism, personalism/integral federalism) are either too vague or too incomplete to operationalise effectively. The dynamic resurgence of ethnicity across the world stresses the need for such a workable model, especially in view of important prevailing misconceptions about the nature of the phenomenon of "ethnicity" and its implications for effective democratic conflict resolution in plural societies. / INLEIDING: Die effektiewe demokratiese akkommodasie van verskillende geografies verspreide etniese groepe in die staatkundige struktuur van 'n plurale samelewing is 'n politieke doelwit wat dusver nog selde in die wêreld verwesenlik kon word. Dit is dan ook die mees aktuele staatkundige probleem in Suid-Afrika en vorm die fokus van hierdie studie.

This dissertation contributes to understanding the political behavior of two underrepresented groups: women and ethnoracial minorities. It explores how these groups' political behavior and beliefs are associated with existent gaps in representation. Each chapter approaches a different aspect concerning this common problem. Chapter 1 inquires about the mechanisms assumed to link descriptive and substantive representation for women. By analyzing the combination of electoral data segregated by gender in Ecuador with census data and the results of an original candidates' survey, I confirm the existence of a `gender affinity vote' and the importance of the type of female candidate for understanding gender gaps in support for women candidates. Chapter 2 presents the results of two survey experiments that study how gender stereotypes affect political behavior at the mass level. It identifies a gendered `issue ownership' based on these stereotypes and tests if counterstereotypical exposures promote more engagement of those underrepresented. The findings suggest that counterstereotypical exposure is not equally effective in promoting participation for both genders. Women do not get more engaged in male-dominated issues when encouraged by other women. Men get more engaged on women's issues when other men encourage them and when the invitee is similar to them. However, the interaction between the two factors has a negative effect, suggesting that seeing someone identical to them creates a dissonance that hinders the direct effects of the two variables. Chapter 3 presents the results of an audit study of US state legislators that explores the existence of a cominority solidarity between Blacks and Latinos. The results show that Latinos are not only the most disadvantaged because White legislators are biased against them, but also because their cominority solidarity towards Blacks is not reciprocated.

With few exceptions, not enough attention has been paid to the phenomenon of ethnic minority rule over hostile majorities in the studies of ethnic conflict. This thesis attempts to account for the ability of ethnic minorities to rule over hostile majorities for continuous periods of time, and to devise a theory for the study of this phenomenon by comparing three cases: the Alawis in Syria, the Tutsis in Burundi and the Sunni Muslim minority in Iraq. The major argument of the thesis is that the phenomenon in question does not occur randomly. There are certain conditions that motivate an ethnic minority to seek political power, and to be able to attain it and maintain continuous rule despite the hostility of the majority. Naturally, each case has its particular characteristics, yet common patterns underlying minority rule over hostile majorities can be found, and an analytical framework can bJe devised. The examination of the three cases leads to the conclusion that minority rule has to be explained by examining how the identities of the minority and majority were formed, how they have been shaped throughout the history of interaction between the two groups, and how they have influenced the relationship between the groups. There is also a need to study how political entrepreneurs manipulate traditional markers and modern issues for instrumental gains. On this basis, it is possible to understand the political salience of the identities, the level of hostility and the reasons why the minorities seek political power. Attaining it or retaining it, and maintaining it for a continuous period of time is dependent on an authoritarian government structure, which includes, indispensably, considerable army involvement in politics. Persistent minority rule is also dependent on its ability to legitimize itself, primarily by creating a unified identity. Success in forming such a unified identity implies a decrease in the saliency of elements of identity that' distinguish between the groups, and ultimately a decrease in the level hostility. This allows the minority rule to persist. If, however, this "unified identity" does not have the desired outcome of mollifying the majority, the ruling minority can, and will, use its military monopoly of coercive power to subdue internal opposition.

With few exceptions, not enough attention has been paid to the phenomenon of ethnic minority rule over hostile majorities in the studies of ethnic conflict. This thesis attempts to account for the ability of ethnic minorities to rule over hostile majorities for continuous periods of time, and to devise a theory for the study of this phenomenon by comparing three cases: the Alawis in Syria, the Tutsis in Burundi and the Sunni Muslim minority in Iraq. The major argument of the thesis is that the phenomenon in question does not occur randomly. There are certain conditions that motivate an ethnic minority to seek political power, and to be able to attain it and maintain continuous rule despite the hostility of the majority. Naturally, each case has its particular characteristics, yet common patterns underlying minority rule over hostile majorities can be found, and an analytical framework can bJe devised. The examination of the three cases leads to the conclusion that minority rule has to be explained by examining how the identities of the minority and majority were formed, how they have been shaped throughout the history of interaction between the two groups, and how they have influenced the relationship between the groups. There is also a need to study how political entrepreneurs manipulate traditional markers and modern issues for instrumental gains. On this basis, it is possible to understand the political salience of the identities, the level of hostility and the reasons why the minorities seek political power. Attaining it or retaining it, and maintaining it for a continuous period of time is dependent on an authoritarian government structure, which includes, indispensably, considerable army involvement in politics. Persistent minority rule is also dependent on its ability to legitimize itself, primarily by creating a unified identity. Success in forming such a unified identity implies a decrease in the saliency of elements of identity that' distinguish between the groups, and ultimately a decrease in the level hostility. This allows the minority rule to persist. If, however, this "unified identity" does not have the desired outcome of mollifying the majority, the ruling minority can, and will, use its military monopoly of coercive power to subdue internal opposition. / Arts, Faculty of / Political Science, Department of / Graduate

Research on ethnicity and conflict treats the concept of ethnicity as defining the actors in these conflicts, whereas research on the construction and maintenance of ethnic identity explores why ethnicity unifies individuals into a single social group. What happens when this unifying concept is divided between two enemy countries? How does this situation influence peace settlements over territorial issues, armed conflict, and economic relations between these countries? To answer these questions, I create a continuous measure of ethnic similarity between rivals. I find that ethnic similarity can facilitate cooperation and exacerbate conflictual interactions between rivals, but governments will seek to limit interactions with their rival when the cross border ethnic groups are minorities. In addition, I create categorical predictors of ethnic similarity, which reveal nuances in these relationships. Specifically, rivalries sharing a pan-ethnic identity are more likely to engage in conflict regardless of actual ethnic similarity, and dyads with a majority in one country sharing ethnicity with a minority in another country are less likely to fight once in a state of rivalry. This is because a quid pro quo exists between these rivals where one rival can reduce oppression of the minority in exchange for the other rival not supporting secessions by their co-ethnics. These pairs of rivals also are more likely to attempt peace settlements. Contested nations, which are rivalry-dyads with similar ethnic majorities, are both the most likely of the ethnically similar rival categories to engage in militarized interstate disputes, but also engage in larger amounts of interstate trade.

This dissertation analyzes several topics related to political life in ethnically divided societies. In chapter 2, I study the relationship between ethnic social conflict, such as protests, riots, and armed inter-ethnic violence, and bloc partisan identification. I find that protests have no effect on bloc support for political parties, riots increase bloc partisan identification, and that armed violence reduces this phenomenon. In chapter 3, I analyze the factors that influence the targeting of ethnic groups by ethnic parties in social conflict. I find some empirical evidence that conditions favorable to vote pooling across ethnic lines reduce group targeting by ethnic parties. In chapter 4, I analyze the effects of ethnic demography on ethnic party behavior. Through a qualitative analysis of party behavior in local elections in Macedonia, I find that ethnic parties change their strategies in response to changes in ethnic demography. I find that co-ethnic parties are less likely to challenge each other for power under conditions of split demography. In fact, under conditions of split demography, I find that co-ethnic parties have political incentives to unite behind a single party because intra-group competition jeopardizes the group's hold on power.

Citizens' increased access to the internet is transforming political landscapes across the globe. The implications for civil society, culture, religion, governmental legitimacy and accountability are vast. In nations where one does not typically expect "modern" or egalitarian ideals to be prevalent among highly religious and conservative populations, those with motivations to unite around socially and culturally taboo causes are no longer forced to silently acquiesce and accept the status quo. The internet has proven to be an invaluable tool for those aiming to engage in social activism, as it allows citizens in highly oppressive authoritarian regimes to covertly mobilize and coordinate online protest events (such as hashtag campaigns, proclamations via social media, signing of petitions, and even DDoS attacks) without the fear of repression. What catalyzes lesbian, gay, bisexual, transgender, and queer/questioning (LGBTQ) equality movements in authoritarian regimes, specifically with respect to the Middle East and North African region? This thesis argues that gay rights movements are more likely to emerge in politically repressive, more conservative states when new political opportunities--namely access to the internet for purposes of political organization--become available. This master's thesis identifies why LGBTQ movements emerged in Morocco and Algeria, but not in Tunisia until after it underwent democratization. These states will be analyzed in order to gauge the strength of their LGBTQ rights movements and, most importantly, to identify which variables most cogently explain their existence altogether.

In the last forty years, U.S. national and statewide LGBT organizations, in pursuit of "equality" through a limited and focused agenda, have made remarkably swift progress moving that agenda forward. However, their agenda has been frequently criticized as prioritizing the interests of White, middle-class gay men and lesbians and ignoring the needs of other LGBT people. In their shadows have emerged numerous grassroots organizations led by queer people of color, transgender people, and low-income LGBT people. These "queer liberation" groups have often been viewed as the left wing of the GRM, but have not been extensively studied. My research investigated how these grassroots liberation organizations can be understood in relation to the equality movement, and whether they actually comprise a separate movement operating alongside, but in tension with, the mainstream gay rights movement. This research used a qualitative content analysis, grounded in black feminism's framework of intersectionality, queer theory, and social movement theories, to examine eight queer liberation organizations. Data streams included interviews with staff at each organization, organizational videos from each group, and the organizations' mission statements. The study used deductive content analysis, informed by a predetermined categorization matrix drawn from social movement theories, and also featured inductive analysis to expand those categories throughout the analysis. This study's findings indicate that a new social movement - distinct from the mainstream equality organizations - does exist. Using criteria informed by leading social movement theories, findings demonstrate that these organizations cannot be understood as part of the mainstream equality movement but must be considered a separate social movement. This "queer liberation movement" has constituents, goals, strategies, and structures that differ sharply from the mainstream equality organizations. This new movement prioritizes queer people in multiple subordinated identity categories, is concerned with rebuilding institutions and structures, rather than with achieving access to them, and is grounded more in "liberation" or "justice" frameworks than "equality." This new movement does not share the equality organizations' priorities (e.g., marriage) and, instead, pursues a different agenda, include challenging the criminal justice and immigration systems, and strengthening the social safety net. Additionally, the study found that this new movement complicates existing social movement theory. For decades, social movement scholars have documented how the redistributive agenda of the early 20th century class-based social movements has been replaced by the demands for access and recognition put forward by the identity-based movements of the 1960s New Left. While the mainstream equality movement can clearly be characterized as an identity-based social movement, the same is not true of the groups in this study. This queer liberation movement, although centered on identity claims, has goals that are redistributive as well as recognition-based. While the emergence of this distinct social movement is significant on its own, of equal significance is the fact that it represents a new post-structuralist model of social movement. This study presents a "four-domain" framework to explain how this movement exists simultaneously inside and outside of other social movements, as a bridge between them, and as its own movement. Implications for research, practice, and policy in social work and allied fields are presented.

Dans ma thèse j’analyse l’Alliance Démocrate Hongroise de Roumanie (RMDSZ, UDMR, DAHR), l’organisation qui a représenté la minorité hongroise de Roumanie dans le Parlement de la Roumanie entre 1990-2004. La troisième partie de la thèse qui contient l’analyse de l’Alliance Démocrate Hongroise de Roumanie se structure autour des sujets suivants :l’émergence de l’UDMR ;les résultats électoraux de l’UDMR; les relations qui se sont établies entre l’UDMR et les partis politiques roumaines, les partis politiques de Hongrie, les organisations internationales; les changements des programmes de l’UDMR; l’autonomie; la structure de l’UDMR; les initiatives législatives de l’UDMR; la vie interne de l’UDMR. <p>La thèse contient aussi une mis en perspective historique, le recensement et la brève analyse des organisations et des partis qui entre 1920-1989 ont voulu représenter la minorité hongroise de Roumanie. La thèse inclut également un chapitre qui analyse les revendications liées à l’enseignement en langue hongroise des partis/des organisations hongroise entre 1920-2004.<p><p>The thesis analyses UDMR (RMDSZ/DAHR), the organization that represented the Hungarian minority in the Romanian Parliament between 1990-2004. The third part consists of the analysis of the DAHR and it has as guidelines the following themes: the establishing of DAHR; the electoral results of DAHR; the relationship between DAHR and the Romanian political parties; the relationship between DAHR and the political parties from Hungary; DAHR and the international organizations; the changes of the DAHR’s program; autonomy; the structure of DAHR; the legislative drafts of DAHR; the internal life of DAHR. <p>The thesis speaks also about the organizations/parties that have been representing the Hungarians in the political life of Romania between 1920-1989. In the same time, the last chapter analyses the demands of the Hungarian organizations/parties regarding the education in the Hungarian language at all levels, demands from the period of 1920-2004. <p> / Doctorat en sciences politiques / info:eu-repo/semantics/nonPublished