The current global economic crisis has put into question the elucidating ability of many economic approaches, in particular those based on neoclassical assumptions, marked roughly by the tendency to equilibrium (self-tuning) as well as the treatment of superficial functions of money in the capitalist system. Similarly, the work of some authors from the heterodox line has gained more space in discussions precisely because give special attention to the role of money in the functioning of the capitalist economic dynamics, and also observe the system on the prism of inherent instability. Regarding the crisis, the mainstream has pointed to possible failures of economic policies of the U.S. government, in turn, heterodox analyzes have indicated, generally, the lack of regulation of financial markets. Beyond these interpretations, however, one of the most striking elements of this process - from the formation of the bubble subprime crisis - were financial innovations that led to the emergence of a period of global economic prosperity. Thus it broadens the perception of innovation as an important element in the formation of economic cycles, encouraging discussion and research on both topics. In order to further explore the relationship between theories that treat innovation as a key driver of the business cycle, we propose an analysis of rapprochement between the views of business cycles from Schumpeter and Minsky. The differences between the heuristic models used in their analysis are considerable, but it is precisely here that lies the challenge and the goal of this dissertation: trying to establish a complementarity between the views of cycle from the two economists, despite the differences in their models. Thus, the hypothesis holds that innovation is central in explaining business cycles in the theoretical approaches of Schumpeter and Minsky, which makes their visions of the dynamics of a market economy complementary. There is, therefore, the question: Is it possible to explain the centrality that has innovations in explaining business cycles from the complementarity of the views of Schumpeter and Minsky cycle? In making this dissertation it was applied the methodology of assessment literature. We exposed the differences between the theories of the business cycle of Minsky and Schumpeter, but also identified traits in common in the views of the two. Above all, despite the differences between the theoretical legacies and heuristic models, it was observed that the visions of cycle from the two economists have considerable approaches together. It was observed that, in fact, the views of Schumpeter and Minsky cycles are complementary. According to Vercelli assumption there is a relation of complementarity among the cycles of the two economists. However, the main question of this dissertation concerns the complementary of cycle visions from Schumpeter and Minsky. However, it is not entirely abandoned the Vercelli assumption since, based on what has been discussed, it can be stated that financial innovations possibly arising on market conditions similar to that tend to arise technological innovations (relative stability, for example). Although, not necessarily, the two cycles has to occur simultaneously and dependent. In short, we can say that a reconciliation between the vision of technological cycle of Schumpeter and vision of Minsky's financial cycle is able to make more explicit the cyclical dynamics of the capitalist system and the role of innovation in this process. Thus we conclude that innovation is central in explaining business cycles in the theoretical approaches of Schumpeter and Minsky, which makes their visions of the dynamics of a market economy complementary. / A atual crise econômica mundial tem posto em cheque a capacidade elucidativa de muitas abordagens da teoria econômica, em especial as que possuem base nos pressupostos neoclássicos, marcados, grosso modo, pela tendência ao equilíbrio (auto-ajuste), bem como o tratamento superficial das funções da moeda no sistema capitalista. No mesmo sentido, a obra de alguns autores de linha heterodoxa tem ganhado maior espaço nas discussões justamente por dispensarem atenção especial ao papel da moeda no funcionamento da dinâmica econômica capitalista, além de também observarem o sistema sobre o prisma da instabilidade inerente. No tocante à crise, o mainstream tem apontado para possíveis equívocos de políticas governamentais americanas, por sua vez, as análises heterodoxas têm indicado, grosso modo, a insuficiência de regulamentação dos mercados financeiros. Para além dessas interpretações, contudo, um dos elementos mais marcantes desse processo – desde a formação da bolha do subprime à crise − foram as inovações financeiras, que propiciaram o surgimento de um período de prosperidade econômica mundial. Desse modo amplia-se a percepção da inovação como um elemento importante na formação dos ciclos econômicos, motivando a discussão e investigação sobre ambos os temas. Com o intuito de explorar melhor a relação entre as teorias que tratam a inovação como principal propulsor dos ciclos econômicos, propomos uma análise de aproximação entre as visões de ciclos econômicos de Schumpeter e de Minsky. As diferenças entre os modelos heurísticos empregados em suas respectivas análises são consideráveis; mas, é justamente nesse ponto que reside o desafio e o objetivo dessa dissertação: tentar estabelecer uma complementariedade entre as visões de ciclo dos dois economistas, a despeito das diferenças de seus modelos. Assim, sustenta-se a hipótese de que a inovação é central na explicação dos ciclos econômicos nas abordagens teóricas de Schumpeter e Minsky, o que torna suas visões da dinâmica de uma economia de mercado complementares. Coloca-se, portanto, a seguinte questão: É possível explicitar a centralidade que tem as inovações na explicação dos ciclos econômicos a partir da complementariedade das visões de ciclo de Schumpeter e Minsky? Na confecção dessa dissertação aplicou-se a metodologia de apreciação bibliográfica. Foram expostas as diferenças que existem entre as teorias de ciclo econômico de Minsky e Schumpeter, mas também foram identificados traços que aproximam as visões dos dois. Sobretudo, a despeito das divergências entre as heranças teóricas e os modelos heurísticos, observou-se que as visões de ciclo dos dois economistas apresentam aproximações consideráveis entre si. Observou-se que, na realidade, as visões dos ciclos de Schumpeter e Minsky se complementam. Segundo a suposição de Vercelli há uma relação de complementariedade entre os próprios ciclos dos dois economistas. Entretanto, a questão principal dessa dissertação diz respeito à complementariedade das visões de ciclo de Schumpeter e Minsky. Contudo, não se abandonou inteiramente a suposição de Vercelli uma vez que, com base no que foi discutido, pode-se afirmar que as inovações financeiras surgem, possivelmente, diante de condições de mercado semelhantes em que tendem a surgir as inovações tecnológicas (relativa estabilidade, por exemplo). Embora não necessariamente os ciclos tenham que ocorrer de forma simultânea e dependente. Em suma, pode-se dizer que uma conciliação entre a visão de ciclo tecnológico de Schumpeter e a visão de ciclo financeiro de Minsky é capaz de tornar mais explícita a dinâmica cíclica do sistema capitalista, bem como o protagonismo da inovação nesse processo. Conclue-se assim que a inovação é central na explicação dos ciclos econômicos nas abordagens teóricas de Schumpeter e Minsky, o que torna suas visões da dinâmica de uma economia de mercado complementares.

CAPES - Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior / Esta dissertação é um esforço de ampliação da Hipótese de Instabilidade Financeira de Minsky (1986) para economias abertas, a fim de investigar o grau de fragilidade financeira externa a que o Brasil esteve submetido no período pós-1995. Para tanto, foi construído o Indicador de fragilidade financeira externa (IFFE) com base nos fluxos financeiros e reais do balanço de pagamentos, para que fosse possível averiguar a composição – e, com isso, a estabilidade – dos fluxos de divisas que fluem e refluem para o País (e para os países em geral, pois ao ser baseado no BPM6 do Fundo Monetário Internacional, o IFFE tem aplicação ampla). Subsidiariamente, ao permitir inferir a postura dos fluxos internacionais reais e financeiros, o IFFE permite concluir qual a sustentabilidade (ou seja, a maior ou menor fragilidade financeira) da disponibilidade de divisas do País para cumprir com os compromissos em moeda estrangeira, o que é feito com a classificação do comportamento do setor externo em relação às posturas financeiras apontadas na teoria minskyana, com a utilização de parâmetros elaborados nessa dissertação. Os resultados da aplicação do IFFE para o Brasil no período analisado apontaram que o estoque de reservas internacionais do País, que foi crescente no período investigado, foi composto majoritariamente por divisas advindas da Conta financeira, uma vez que os déficits em Transações correntes também tiveram tendência de crescimento no período (só houve superávits no período de 2003 a 2007), tornando imperativo o financiamento externo das transações com o resto do mundo. Além disso, a predominância da postura Especulativa nos trimestres analisados demonstrou que o estoque de reservas é composto de forma expressiva com recursos mais voláteis, o que imprime maior nível de fragilidade financeira externa e dependência em relação a esses capitais, visto que eventuais movimentos bruscos deles, em reflexo a episódios de instabilidade nos mercados financeiros, podem consumir rapidamente esse estoque. / This dissertation is an effort to expand Minsky's Financial Instability Hypothesis (1986) for open economies in order to investigate the external financial fragility which Brazil was subjected in the post-1995 period. For that, the External Financial Fragility Indicator (IFFE) was constructed based on the balance of payments’ financial and real flows, with the object analyze the composition – and hence the stability – of the flows of foreign exchange entering and leaving the country (and for the countries in general, since it is based on BPM6 of the International Monetary Fund, the IFFE has wide application). Alternatively, by making it possible to infer the position of the international real and financial flows, the IFFE allows us to conclude the sustainability (that is, the greater or lesser financial fragility, of the country's foreign exchange availability) to comply with foreign currency commitments, with the classification of the behavior of the external sector in relation to the financial postures pointed out in the Minsky’s theory, using the parameters elaborated in this dissertation. The results of the application of the IFFE to Brazil in the analyzed period indicated that the country's stock of international reserves, which was increasing in the investigated period was composed mainly by currencies from the financial account, considering current account deficits also showed a growth trend in the period (there were only surpluses in the period from 2003 to 2007), making external financing of transactions with the rest of the world imperative. Besides the predominance of the Speculative posture in the analyzed quarters showed that the stock of reserves relies in an expressive way with more volatile resources, which implies a greater level of external financial fragility and dependence in relation to these capitals, seeing that eventual sudden movement s of them, in response to episodes of instability in the financial markets, can quickly consume this stock. / Dissertação (Mestrado)

Submitted by Dante Ferreira (dantelowenthal@gmail.com) on 2014-09-29T17:02:01Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissertação Dante 22.09.doc: 22429696 bytes, checksum: 2b915fe5d81e660cee160e07d11539d6 (MD5) / Rejected by Vania Magalhaes (magal@ufba.br), reason: on 2014-09-29T17:27:32Z (GMT) / Submitted by Dante Ferreira (dantelowenthal@gmail.com) on 2014-09-29T17:41:54Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissertação Dante 22.09.doc: 22429696 bytes, checksum: 2b915fe5d81e660cee160e07d11539d6 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Vania Magalhaes (magal@ufba.br) on 2014-09-30T12:44:34Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissertação Dante 22.09.doc: 22429696 bytes, checksum: 2b915fe5d81e660cee160e07d11539d6 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2014-09-30T12:44:34Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissertação Dante 22.09.doc: 22429696 bytes, checksum: 2b915fe5d81e660cee160e07d11539d6 (MD5) / Capes / A crise econômica pela qual o mundo está passando, mesmo tendo tido seu epicentro na economia norte-americana, não demorou muito para ter seus efeitos manifestados em economias de diversos pontos do mundo. Apesar disso, nem todos os países foram afetados da mesma maneira por estes efeitos. Um dos países que se destacou na maneira como lidou com o problema da crise foi a China. Outro bom exemplo é o Brasil, que apesar de não ter tido um desempenho tão impressionante quanto o da China, também passou relativamente bem pela explosão da crise nos anos de 2008, 2009 e 2010 e mostrou-se razoavelmente eficiente nas medidas de combate aos efeitos da crise. O presente trabalho teve como objetivo examinar a maneira como esta crise incidiu sobre estes dois países e as medidas que foram tomadas por suas autoridades para evitar consequências que comprometessem a saúde de suas economias. Para iniciar a discussão, foi feita primeiramente uma análise da crise, suas características e hipóteses para suas origens, utilizando-se as ideias de autores como Marx, Keynes e Misnky, em seguida teve-se início a análise específica dos casos chinês e brasileiro. Verificou-se que a China resistiu bem à crise basicamente por ter feito de forma antecipada medidas de regulamentação do sistema financeiro que evitaram a infestação de endividamentos, viu-se também que este país possui ainda muitos recursos macroeconômicos para evitar o avanço da crise em sua economia. Quanto ao Brasil, observou-se que apesar de o país ter sido menos afetado pela crise do que as nações centrais, ainda assim foi mais afetado do que a China, por exemplo. Além disso, há grande preocupação com o futuro econômico brasileiro, visto que a ascenção chinesa, a despeito de ser um ponto favorável ao Brasil como origem de mais investimentos externos e parcerias comerciais e políticas, pode representar uma ameaça ao setor industrial do país. / The financial crisis which the world is passing is a very interesting phenomenon in the analytically point, despite its epicenter be originated in the U.S. economy some time later its effects soon emerged in economies worldwide. Nevertheless, not all countries have been affected in the same way by the wave of indebtedness. One of the countries that stood in the way that dealt with the problem of the crisis was China. Other good example is Brazil, that despite having not performed as impressive as China also went relatively well by the explosion of the crisis in 2008, 2009 and 2010 and presented an effective performance in measures to combat the effects of the crisis. This article aims to examine how this crisis focused on these two countries and the measures that were taken by their authorities to avoid consequences that could compromise the health of their economies. To start the discussion an analysis of the crisis was primarily done, its characteristics and hypotheses for their origins were observed, using the ideas of authors such as Marx, Keynes and Misnky. Thereafter a specific analysis of the Chinese and Brazilian cases was presented. From this work it was possible to verify that China strongly resisted to the crisis because basically took in advance measures to regulate the financial system that avoided the diffusion of indebtedness, it was also possible to note that this country still has several macroeconomic resources to prevent the advance of the crisis in its economy. As for Brazil, it was observed that although the country has been less affected by the crisis than the highlighted nations, even so it was less affected than china, for example. Furthermore, there is great concern about Brazil's economic future as the Chinese ascent, despite being a favorable point to Brazil as a source of more foreign investment and trade policies and partnerships, may represent a threat to the country's industrial sector.

Submitted by Maykon Nascimento (maykon.albani@hotmail.com) on 2014-09-29T18:22:11Z No. of bitstreams: 2 license_rdf: 23148 bytes, checksum: 9da0b6dfac957114c6a7714714b86306 (MD5) Dissertacao.Alysson.texto.pdf: 2231272 bytes, checksum: e5edb7bcb5adb822f037f33c3fef9aab (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Elizabete Silva (elizabete.silva@ufes.br) on 2014-11-17T18:51:57Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 2 license_rdf: 23148 bytes, checksum: 9da0b6dfac957114c6a7714714b86306 (MD5) Dissertacao.Alysson.texto.pdf: 2231272 bytes, checksum: e5edb7bcb5adb822f037f33c3fef9aab (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2014-11-17T18:51:57Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 2 license_rdf: 23148 bytes, checksum: 9da0b6dfac957114c6a7714714b86306 (MD5) Dissertacao.Alysson.texto.pdf: 2231272 bytes, checksum: e5edb7bcb5adb822f037f33c3fef9aab (MD5) Previous issue date: 2014 / Diante do colapso financeiro de 2008, este trabalho retoma a teoria econômica proposta por Hyman P. Minsky com o objetivo de esclarecer as circunstâncias que propiciaram uma crise financeira tão profunda. A estrutura analítica de Minsky é marcada pela Hipótese da Instabilidade Financeira, a qual aponta para fatores endógenos ao próprio sistema capitalista como o principal causador de instabilidades financeiras. Este processo, caracterizado principalmente por um avanço desfavorável no nível de endividamento dos agentes, constrói um ciclo de estágios que pode se desenvolver para uma crise financeira ou um colapso sistêmico, definidos como “Momento Minsky” e “Colapso Minsky”. Este cenário descrito por Minsky, também analisado à luz de teorias mais recentes como as de Gary A. Dymski e Alessandro Vercelli, é conhecido por “ciclo minskyano”. Ao adotar estes preceitos da análise teórica de Minsky, é possível visualizar como o processo de desregulamentação e fragilização financeira dos Estados Unidos nas décadas de 1980 e 1990 proveram condições para a crise do subprime e, posteriormente, o colapso financeiro de 2008. De maneira similar, é possível observar que a análise teórica de Minsky também é aplicável à crise que afeta a economia brasileira no final de 2008. A fragilização financeira que se inicia no Brasil poucos anos antes da crise, acentuada no setor exportador de commodities, cria a condição para o “momento Minsky brasileiro”, demonstrando que apesar das falhas da análise teórica de Minsky, que supõe uma economia fechada com características da economia estadunidense, é possível visualizar uma relação de causa e efeito da recente crise financeira com a teoria minskyana. / Having in sight the world's financial collapse of 2008, this dissertation takes up the economic theory proposed by Hyman P. Minsky aiming to clarify the circumstances that led to so deep financial crisis. Minsky’s analytical framework was built on the Financial Instability Hypothesis, which identifies in the internal dynamics of the capitalistic system as the main cause of its financial upswings and downturns. This process, characterized by the progressive indebtedness of economic agents, builds itself in a cycle of predefined stages that often reach the apex of a financial crisis or a systemic collapse, best known in the literature, respectively, as “Minsky Moment” and “Minsky Collapse”. Minsky's overall approach to the financial modus operandi of modern economies was complemented by the more recent contributions of Gary A. Dymski and Alessandro Vercelli, who explored the idea of a Miskian cycle. By reviewing these theories in some detail, it is possible to see how the process of the deregulation and financial weakness of the United States in the 1980s and 1990s paved the way to the subprime crisis and, later, of the 2008 financial collapse. Similarly, is possible to observe that Minsky’s theory is also applicable to the Brazilian financial crisis in 2008. The financial fragility that began to develop in Brazil some years prior to the crisis, mainly in the commodities export sector, created the conditions for the “Brazilian Minsky’s moment”, demonstrating that despite some limitations of Minsky's analysis, such as the assumption of a closed economy, his theory offers important insights not only into the operation of financial markets in fully advanced economies but also in the emerging ones as well.

Orientadores: Daniela Magalhães Prates, Rogério Pereira de Andrade / Dissertação (mestrado) - Universidade Estadual de Campinas, Instituto de Economia / Made available in DSpace on 2018-08-25T08:01:59Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Hatto_Bruno_M.pdf: 2532131 bytes, checksum: 7a4520719a17340411607fc2243a07f2 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2014 / Resumo: A crise econômica que atingiu o Japão durante os anos 1990 interrompeu uma trajetória de quarenta anos de forte crescimento, que conduziu o país de um cenário destruído pela guerra à posição de segunda maior economia do mundo nos anos 1960. O objetivo desta dissertação é analisar os determinantes e consequências dessa crise, utilizando-se como referencial teórico a Hipótese da Instabilidade Financeira desenvolvida por Hyman Minsky. Procura-se argumentar que a forma de atuação dos principais agentes econômicos japoneses (empresas, bancos e famílias) após as mudanças verificadas nos contextos doméstico e externo nos anos 1970 e 1980, cuja interação culminou na crise, pode ser compreendida a partir da teoria minskyana, embora sejam necessárias algumas adaptações para sua aplicação a este caso específico Os argumentos estão organizados da seguinte forma. No primeiro capítulo, apresenta-se a perspectiva teórica utilizada, com base na contribuição original de Minsky e nas análises dessa contribuição realizadas por outros autores pós-keynesianos. No segundo capítulo, descreve-se as principais características do arranjo institucional liderado pelo Estado japonês para estimular o investimento e recuperar a economia do país após a segunda guerra mundial, implantado entre 1950 e o primeiro choque do petróleo em 1973. No terceiro capítulo, analisa-se a desestruturação desse arranjo durante os anos 1970 e 1980, mostrando seus reflexos sobre o comportamento dos agentes e o processo de formação da bolha especulativa no final da década de 1980. Apresenta-se ainda os impactos da desaceleração dos preços dos principais ativos no desempenho da economia japonesa ao longo dos anos 1990, bem como as medidas implementadas pelas autoridades econômicas com o intuito de estimular sua recuperação / Abstract: The economic crisis that stroke Japan during the 1990s broke the growth trajectory that had started forty years earlier and transformed a country destroyed by the Second World War into the second biggest economy in the planet in the 1960s. This paper analyses the causes and consequences of this crisis, using Hyman Minsky's Financial Instability Hypothesis. It argues that the behavior of the main economic agents (enterprises, banks and families) after the changes in the world and domestic economies occurred in the 1970s and 1980s, whose interaction led to the crisis, can be understood under the Minskyan theory, with a few adaptations to this specific case. The paper is separated into three chapters: in the first chapter, it presents the main aspects of Minsky's theory used in the analysis with the contributions of other post-Keynesian authors. In the second chapter, it describes the institutional arrangement commanded by the Japan State that stimulated the economy's recovery between the 1950s and the first oil shock in 1973. In the third chapter, it analyzes how this arrangement was broken during the 1970s and the 1980s, showing the reflexes of this process in the agents' behavior and the formation of the economic bubble in the end of the decade. It also presents the impacts of the deceleration of the asset's prices in the Japanese economy in the 1990s and the actions taken by the economic authorities looking to stimulate the recovery / Mestrado / Teoria Economica / Mestre em Ciências Econômicas

Hyman Minsky’s Financial Instability Hypothesis is used to construct two different indices for financial instability: a long-term index (Long Term Financial Instability) and a short-term index (Short Term Financial Instability). The former focuses on the underlying fragility of financial structures of units in the economy while the latter focuses on more immediate developments and manages to follow turmoil – “a financial crisis” – in the economy. The interplay of the indices with each other, with economic growth and with Foreign Direct Investment, both in general and in the financial industry, is probed. In short, we find that long term financial stability, i.e. secure financial structures in the economy or a low level of Long Term Financial Instability, is sacrificed for maintaining short term financial stability. However, more Long Term Financial Instability is associated, as Minsky expected, with more fluctuations in Short Term Financial Instability: market turmoil is more common the more fragile underlying financial structures of units in the economy are. This signals that markets are ruled by short-termism. Economic growth is harmed by Short Term Financial Instability but the effects of Long Term Financial Instability are weaker. The common expectation that FDI activities strengthen financial stability is not confirmed. The relationship found hints rather in the opposite direction: FDI activities seem to cause financial instability. Based on the those investigations and a further empirical work using data from Iceland, Leigh Harkness’s Optimum Exchange Rate System (OERS) is developed further with the intention of solving “The Policy Problem” as described by Minsky. Insights from control theory are used. The OERS, along with public debt management as carried out by Keynes, is argued to have the ability to keep economic activity in the state of a permanent “quasi-boom”. The policy implications are that the OERS should be considered as a monetary policy as it permits a free flow of capital, thereby allowing economies to reap the possible positive benefits of foreign direct investment, while still conserving financial stability.

The purpose of this thesis is to construct an endogenous macroeconomic model explaining the cause of financial cycles and systemic instability based on the financial instability hypothesis (FIH) published by Hyman Minsky (1982). FIH maintains that capitalist financial systems have an inherent disposition to fi- nancial instability because periods of economic prosperity encourage borrowers and lenders to be increasingly reckless which in turn lead to the formation of financial bubbles. The problem is approached by employing an adaptive ex- pectations model based on stylized facts from Kaldor's and Kalecki's models with addition of behavioral equations implemented in an attempt to simulate market expectations. JEL Classification E02, E11, E32 Keywords Instability, Macromodel, Cycles Author's e-mail ales.z@hotmail.com Supervisor's e-mail jaromir.baxa@fsv.cuni.cz

The phenomenal financial expansion of the last decades has been characterised by an exacerbation of systemic instability and an increase in the frequency of financial crises, culminating in the recent meltdown in the US financial sector. The literature on financial crises has developed concomitantly, but despite a large number of papers written on this subject, economists are still struggling to understand the underlying determinants of these phenomena. In this dissertation, I argue that one of the reasons for this apparent failure is the way agents, as well as the environment in which they evolve, are modelled in this literature. After reviewing the existing literature on international financial crises, I outline an alternative framework, drawing from Post-Keynesian and Behavioural insights. In this framework, international financial crises are seen as being a direct consequence of the way agents formulate expectations in an environment of fundamental uncertainty and the investment and financial decisions they subsequently take. I argue that the psychological heuristics agents use in formulating expectations under fundamental uncertainty can lead to decisions which fragilise the economy and can thus be conducive to financial crises. I then apply this framework to the study of the 2000-2001 financial crisis in Turkey, which is notorious for not lending itself easily to explanations based on the existing theoretical literature on international financial crises. After outlining the crisis and reviewing the main existing accounts, I identify two moments prior to the crisis: A phase of increasing financial fragility, lasting from a previous crisis in 1994 to 1999, and a financial bubble in 2000 during the implementation of an IMF stabilisation program, partly predicated on the previous increase in financial fragility. My framework can account for both periods; it fits particularly well the first one and enhances the explanatory content of existing stories about the events that took place in 2000.

CCette thèse étudie les impacts de la financiarisation sur le taux de change des paysémergents. La financiarisation entraine la finance vers une logique patrimoniale et plusspéculative au niveau international comme l'indique l'utilisation de produits et pratiquesinnovantes par les gestionnaires de portefeuille internationaux. Parallèlement, on constateune volatilité élevée des taux de change dans certains pays émergents, notamment lors deturbulences sur les marchés financiers internationaux. La thèse analyse la relation entre la financiarisation et cette dynamique du taux de change et pourquoi le taux de change est plus volatile dans certains pays. La thèse émet l'hypothèse que l'inclusion d'actifs des pays émergents et de leur monnaie dans les stratégies innovantes de gestion de portefeuille soumet leurs taux de change aux décisions des money managers et les rend dépendant aux variations des marchés financiers mondiaux. Pour tester cette hypothèse, la thèse propose l'utilisation d'un indicateur d'intégration financiarisée et le compare aux caractéristiques de chaque taux de change. Les résultats démontrent une forte relation entre le niveau de financiarisation de l'intégration d'un pays et la volatilité de son taux de change, la fréquence des dépréciations extrêmes, la corrélation avec les conditions financières internationales ainsi qu'avec d'autres monnaies émergentes. La thèse propose une analyse dans une approche Minskyenne d'économie ouverte qui détaille les mécanismes sous-jacents à ces résultats et des modélisations des éléments importants pour la détermination du taux de change dans un cadre SFC. / This thesis investigates the impacts of financialization on exchange rates of emerging marketeconomies (EMEs). With financialization, finance follows a patrimonial and increasinglyspeculative logic at the international level, reflecting innovations of products and practicessuch as FX derivatives and carry trading by money managers. Through their portfolioallocation decisions, these portfolio investors bridge markets and currencies across the globe, their decisions being key to exchange rate determination. Simultaneously, some EMEs have been facing high exchange rate volatility, especially in moments of turbulence in international financial markets. The thesis seeks to answer whether these dynamics are associated with financialization and why they are stronger in some EMEs. Specifically, it raises the hypothesis that the use of an EME's assets and currency in those innovative strategies increases emerging currencies' fragility to money managers' decisions, thus to conditions of financial markets worldwide. To test this hypothesis an indicator of financialized integration is suggested and compared to countries' exchange-rate features. Results demonstrate a strong association of financialization with higher exchange rate volatility, more frequent extreme depreciations, closer association with international financial conditions, and high correlation with other emerging currencies. Apart from scrutinizing emerging currencies' special dynamics and their reasons, the thesis suggests a Minskyan open-economy framework that details the underlying mechanisms and forms of modeling keyelements to explain exchange rate dynamics in the SFC framework.

本文以Minsky金融不穩定假說 (Financial Instability Hypothesis) 為基礎，闡述Minsky對於資本經濟不穩定現象的理論，並且對於Minsky強調不穩定情況下的大政府 (Big Government) 做一更詳細的說明。 金融不穩定假說反應著資本經濟體系的不穩定是一種內生、而且是常態的現象，透過制度結構的改變、法令與經濟單位的外生性反應將經濟維持在穩定的狀況。不穩定的情況始於對經濟前景的過份樂觀態度，隨著危機記憶的過去，風險趨避的態度也逐漸消逝，融通態度變得更為投機，因此提升經濟發生不穩定的機率。 在不穩定一蹴可幾的情形下，Minsky認為，唯有大政府的存在，適當的介入不穩定危機中，不穩定情況才能逐漸趨緩。大政府的存在是透過政府赤字的利潤效果、政府公債的資產負債效果，以及移轉性支付的所得效果來穩定金融、經濟的不穩定。因此，本文以台灣在民國87~88年間發生的金融危機為例，為Minsky的假說做一驗證。實證結果顯示，支持Minsky的假說，並且政府在驗證期間內，的確發揮上述的三效果。