Cette thèse entend revisiter la question des interactions entre les dimensions commerciale et monétaire desprocessus d’intégration régionale à travers l’étude du cas océanien. Habituellement en retrait du champ d’étude del’économie internationale, le continent océanien se trouve pourtant au coeur de la problématique de l’inscription despetites économies insulaires dans l’économie mondiale via des processus régionaux et constitue un terrain d’étudesprivilégié sur la question du séquençage entre intégration monétaire et intégration commerciale. La démarche envisagéedans cette thèse procède de l’économie appliquée et mobilise différentes méthodologies (économétrie de panel, modèlesqualitatifs multinomiaux, équations gravitaires) pour apporter un éclairage original sur les différentes dimensions duprocessus d’intégration dans la zone et sur l’articulation entre ses versants monétaire et réel. Trois résultats principauxse dégagent de ce travail. Tout d’abord, l’évaluation de la dynamique d’intégration réelle à l’oeuvre met en évidencel’impact positif des accords commerciaux intra-régionaux sur les flux d’échange entre les pays membres et sur lesexportations à destination des pays non membres. À travers l’établissement d’une cartographie originale des relationscambiaires dans la zone, l’analyse met ensuite à jour l’influence d’une dépendance au sentier sur les choix d’ancrage et laprépondérance des déterminants historiques. Troisièmement, le croisement de ces résultats invite à relativiser l’impactd’une modification de l’architecture cambiaire sur les flux commerciaux intra-zone. Le poids de l’histoire se dégage toutd’abord des équations gravitaires à travers des effets d’interaction entre influence de l’ascendance coloniale communeet impact de la fixité des taux de change bilatéraux ; une analyse prospective conduit enfin à privilégier un scénariod’ancrage des monnaies océaniennes vis-à-vis du dollar australien, tout en soulignant les effets asymétriques d’un telschéma d’intégration monétaire sur les flux commerciaux intra-zone. / The purpose of this dissertation is to shed new light on the interactions between trade integration andmonetary integration, using the Oceanian region as a case study. The Oceanian continent has not enjoyed excessiveattention amongst researchers in international economics. And yet, the region offers a striking illustration of themechanisms through which small island economies interact with the global economy, via complex regional processes.As such, it constitutes an excellent research field for the question of the sequencing between monetary integration andtrade integration. The approach adopted in this thesis is steeped in applied economics, and uses various methodologies(panel econometrics, multinomial discrete choice models, gravity equations) to bring a fresh perspective on the variousdimensions of the regional integration process, and on the interactions between the monetary and trade components ofthat process. The study yields three key conclusions. Firstly, the study assesses the actual integration dynamics at work,and concludes that there is a positive impact of intra-regional trade agreements, both on trade flows between membercountries and on exports to non-member countries. Secondly, the study creates a new mapping of exchange rate regimesin the region, and uses it to identify a path dependency between anchoring choices and historical determinations. Thirdly,the models analyzed suggest that the impact of common currency arrangements on intra-regional trade flows should notbe over-estimated. Rather, a closer look at the gravity equations describing the interaction between common colonialascendency and common currency arrangements suggests that history is the over-riding factor. Finally, a prospectiveanalysis leads to consider anchoring to the australian dollar as a possible option, while noting the asymmetrical impactof such an integration scheme on intra-regional trade flows.

Many regions of the world would like to replicate the financial and monetary integration of the European Monetary Union (EMU). Member countries of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) have shown an interest in such an arrangement. ASEAN is a political, cultural, and economic association that includes Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, and Vietnam. Many of these nations are experiencing rapid economic development while others are still relatively poor and under developed. As such, they appear to be an unlikely group for currency unification. Older studies suggest that multiple currency union groupings may be possible in the short run that could be unified into a whole at an unspecified time in the future. The issue has been studied for some time and appeared defunct with the onset of the Asian Financial Crisis. More than a decade has passed and another more global financial crisis has ensued leaving many Asian countries in better shape than their highly developed trading partners in the west. This leads to the need for further examination of the possible unification of some or all ASEAN members into a Regional Currency Arrangement. This dissertation evaluates the readiness of the ASEAN nations for monetary union using data from the post Asian Financial Crisis period. Results of a formal G-PPP test show the area is an optimum currency area. Analysis of other criteria shows incredible diversity across the countries in the region that would make unification a challenge. Coordination of monetary policy would be most difficult given the variety of inflation rates and differences in depth of financial system development as explored in chapter 2. Trade has increased in the region leading to better linkages among economies but the data shows that reaching full integration of all countries by the 2020 deadline without disruptions in some economies may still be difficult.

A ideia da criação de uma moeda única remonta às origens do Mercosul e perpassa, ainda hoje, o imaginário de diversas lideranças políticas de países da América do Sul (UNCTAD, 2007; BICHARA, CUNHA e LÉLIS, 2008; DEOS, MENDONÇA e WEGNER, 2010). A despeito da distância entre as intenções e a prática, o período recente está repleto de novidades. A crise financeira global testou os limites da liderança estadunidense e do modelo neoliberal. Em seu rastro cresceu o poder das nações emergentes. O G8 perdeu prestígio para o G20. Antes da crise, o forte crescimento da economia mundial, sob a liderança chinesa, propiciou a elevação no preço das commodities, favorecendo a emergência de um ciclo de crescimento com melhoria na situação financeira externa e interna da maioria das economias sul-americanas. Se, depois da crise da dívida externa dos anos 1980, a instabilidade e a divergência cíclica marcaram a interação entre os países sul-americanos, a primeira década do século XXI testemunhou uma convergência mais virtuosa. Neste contexto, foram ganhando força novas iniciativas de cooperação monetária e financeira, com destaque para a proposta do Banco do Sul, a criação do Fundo para Convergência Estrutural do Mercosul e do Sistema de Pagamentos em Moedas Locais, dentre outras iniciativas. Portanto, parece estar se criando um espaço de inovação em meio a um cenário internacional marcado pela “ascensão do resto” e pela decadência relativa dos Estados Unidos. Considerando-se o caso sul-americano, a partir da ótica brasileira, esta pesquisa pretende analisar a possibilidade, os custos e as vantagens de se aprofundar a cooperação monetária e financeira em nível regional. Assumindo que não há horizonte de reformas substanciais no sistema monetário internacional no curto prazo (UNCTAD, 2007; OCAMPO, 2006) e observando-se uma tendência de emersão de um sistema multimonetário (EICHENGREEN, 2011), o objetivo geral é o de responder as seguintes perguntas: (i) seria viável o surgimento de um subsistema monetário sul-americano centrado na economia brasileira? (ii) dadas as assimetrias regionais, como se pode avançar na integração sem comprometer o desenvolvimento nacional? e (iii) os mecanismos de cooperação monetária e financeira hoje existentes podem garantir o avanço na integração regional? / The idea of creating a single currency dates back to the origins of Mercosur and still pervades the imagery of various political leaders in South America (UNCTAD, 2007; BICHARA, CUNHA and LÉLIS, 2008; DEOS, MENDONÇA and WEGNER, 2010). Despite the distance between intentions and practice, the recent period is packed with new features. The global financial crisis has tested the limits of American leadership and the neoliberal model. In its wake the power of emerging nations has grown. The G8 lost prestige to the G20. Before the crisis, the strong global economic growth, under the Chinese leadership, led to the rise in commodity prices, favoring the emergence of a growth cycle combined with a better internal and external financial situation of most South American economies. If after the debt crisis in the 1980s instability and cyclical divergence marked the interaction between the South American countries, the first decade of the 21st century witnessed a convergence more virtuous. In this context, new initiatives of monetary and financial cooperation are gaining strength, especially the proposal of the Bank of the South, the creation of the Structural Convergence Fund for Mercosur and the Local Currency Payment System, among other initiatives. Therefore, it seems to be surging a space for innovation in the midst of an international scenario marked by the "rise of the rest" and the relative decline of the United States. Considering the case of South America, from the Brazilian perspective, this research aims to study the possibility, costs and benefits of further monetary and financial cooperation at the regional level. Assuming that short-term substantial reforms are not expected for the international monetary system (UNCTAD, 2007; OCAMPO, 2006) and observing a trend of emergence of a multimonetary system (EICHENGREEN, 2011), the main goal is to answer the following questions: (i) would be viable the emergence of a South American monetary subsystem focused on the Brazilian economy? (ii) given the regional differences, how integration can progress without compromising national development? and (iii) the mechanisms of monetary and financial cooperation that exist today can ensure progress in regional integration?

A ideia da criação de uma moeda única remonta às origens do Mercosul e perpassa, ainda hoje, o imaginário de diversas lideranças políticas de países da América do Sul (UNCTAD, 2007; BICHARA, CUNHA e LÉLIS, 2008; DEOS, MENDONÇA e WEGNER, 2010). A despeito da distância entre as intenções e a prática, o período recente está repleto de novidades. A crise financeira global testou os limites da liderança estadunidense e do modelo neoliberal. Em seu rastro cresceu o poder das nações emergentes. O G8 perdeu prestígio para o G20. Antes da crise, o forte crescimento da economia mundial, sob a liderança chinesa, propiciou a elevação no preço das commodities, favorecendo a emergência de um ciclo de crescimento com melhoria na situação financeira externa e interna da maioria das economias sul-americanas. Se, depois da crise da dívida externa dos anos 1980, a instabilidade e a divergência cíclica marcaram a interação entre os países sul-americanos, a primeira década do século XXI testemunhou uma convergência mais virtuosa. Neste contexto, foram ganhando força novas iniciativas de cooperação monetária e financeira, com destaque para a proposta do Banco do Sul, a criação do Fundo para Convergência Estrutural do Mercosul e do Sistema de Pagamentos em Moedas Locais, dentre outras iniciativas. Portanto, parece estar se criando um espaço de inovação em meio a um cenário internacional marcado pela “ascensão do resto” e pela decadência relativa dos Estados Unidos. Considerando-se o caso sul-americano, a partir da ótica brasileira, esta pesquisa pretende analisar a possibilidade, os custos e as vantagens de se aprofundar a cooperação monetária e financeira em nível regional. Assumindo que não há horizonte de reformas substanciais no sistema monetário internacional no curto prazo (UNCTAD, 2007; OCAMPO, 2006) e observando-se uma tendência de emersão de um sistema multimonetário (EICHENGREEN, 2011), o objetivo geral é o de responder as seguintes perguntas: (i) seria viável o surgimento de um subsistema monetário sul-americano centrado na economia brasileira? (ii) dadas as assimetrias regionais, como se pode avançar na integração sem comprometer o desenvolvimento nacional? e (iii) os mecanismos de cooperação monetária e financeira hoje existentes podem garantir o avanço na integração regional? / The idea of creating a single currency dates back to the origins of Mercosur and still pervades the imagery of various political leaders in South America (UNCTAD, 2007; BICHARA, CUNHA and LÉLIS, 2008; DEOS, MENDONÇA and WEGNER, 2010). Despite the distance between intentions and practice, the recent period is packed with new features. The global financial crisis has tested the limits of American leadership and the neoliberal model. In its wake the power of emerging nations has grown. The G8 lost prestige to the G20. Before the crisis, the strong global economic growth, under the Chinese leadership, led to the rise in commodity prices, favoring the emergence of a growth cycle combined with a better internal and external financial situation of most South American economies. If after the debt crisis in the 1980s instability and cyclical divergence marked the interaction between the South American countries, the first decade of the 21st century witnessed a convergence more virtuous. In this context, new initiatives of monetary and financial cooperation are gaining strength, especially the proposal of the Bank of the South, the creation of the Structural Convergence Fund for Mercosur and the Local Currency Payment System, among other initiatives. Therefore, it seems to be surging a space for innovation in the midst of an international scenario marked by the "rise of the rest" and the relative decline of the United States. Considering the case of South America, from the Brazilian perspective, this research aims to study the possibility, costs and benefits of further monetary and financial cooperation at the regional level. Assuming that short-term substantial reforms are not expected for the international monetary system (UNCTAD, 2007; OCAMPO, 2006) and observing a trend of emergence of a multimonetary system (EICHENGREEN, 2011), the main goal is to answer the following questions: (i) would be viable the emergence of a South American monetary subsystem focused on the Brazilian economy? (ii) given the regional differences, how integration can progress without compromising national development? and (iii) the mechanisms of monetary and financial cooperation that exist today can ensure progress in regional integration?

A ideia da criação de uma moeda única remonta às origens do Mercosul e perpassa, ainda hoje, o imaginário de diversas lideranças políticas de países da América do Sul (UNCTAD, 2007; BICHARA, CUNHA e LÉLIS, 2008; DEOS, MENDONÇA e WEGNER, 2010). A despeito da distância entre as intenções e a prática, o período recente está repleto de novidades. A crise financeira global testou os limites da liderança estadunidense e do modelo neoliberal. Em seu rastro cresceu o poder das nações emergentes. O G8 perdeu prestígio para o G20. Antes da crise, o forte crescimento da economia mundial, sob a liderança chinesa, propiciou a elevação no preço das commodities, favorecendo a emergência de um ciclo de crescimento com melhoria na situação financeira externa e interna da maioria das economias sul-americanas. Se, depois da crise da dívida externa dos anos 1980, a instabilidade e a divergência cíclica marcaram a interação entre os países sul-americanos, a primeira década do século XXI testemunhou uma convergência mais virtuosa. Neste contexto, foram ganhando força novas iniciativas de cooperação monetária e financeira, com destaque para a proposta do Banco do Sul, a criação do Fundo para Convergência Estrutural do Mercosul e do Sistema de Pagamentos em Moedas Locais, dentre outras iniciativas. Portanto, parece estar se criando um espaço de inovação em meio a um cenário internacional marcado pela “ascensão do resto” e pela decadência relativa dos Estados Unidos. Considerando-se o caso sul-americano, a partir da ótica brasileira, esta pesquisa pretende analisar a possibilidade, os custos e as vantagens de se aprofundar a cooperação monetária e financeira em nível regional. Assumindo que não há horizonte de reformas substanciais no sistema monetário internacional no curto prazo (UNCTAD, 2007; OCAMPO, 2006) e observando-se uma tendência de emersão de um sistema multimonetário (EICHENGREEN, 2011), o objetivo geral é o de responder as seguintes perguntas: (i) seria viável o surgimento de um subsistema monetário sul-americano centrado na economia brasileira? (ii) dadas as assimetrias regionais, como se pode avançar na integração sem comprometer o desenvolvimento nacional? e (iii) os mecanismos de cooperação monetária e financeira hoje existentes podem garantir o avanço na integração regional? / The idea of creating a single currency dates back to the origins of Mercosur and still pervades the imagery of various political leaders in South America (UNCTAD, 2007; BICHARA, CUNHA and LÉLIS, 2008; DEOS, MENDONÇA and WEGNER, 2010). Despite the distance between intentions and practice, the recent period is packed with new features. The global financial crisis has tested the limits of American leadership and the neoliberal model. In its wake the power of emerging nations has grown. The G8 lost prestige to the G20. Before the crisis, the strong global economic growth, under the Chinese leadership, led to the rise in commodity prices, favoring the emergence of a growth cycle combined with a better internal and external financial situation of most South American economies. If after the debt crisis in the 1980s instability and cyclical divergence marked the interaction between the South American countries, the first decade of the 21st century witnessed a convergence more virtuous. In this context, new initiatives of monetary and financial cooperation are gaining strength, especially the proposal of the Bank of the South, the creation of the Structural Convergence Fund for Mercosur and the Local Currency Payment System, among other initiatives. Therefore, it seems to be surging a space for innovation in the midst of an international scenario marked by the "rise of the rest" and the relative decline of the United States. Considering the case of South America, from the Brazilian perspective, this research aims to study the possibility, costs and benefits of further monetary and financial cooperation at the regional level. Assuming that short-term substantial reforms are not expected for the international monetary system (UNCTAD, 2007; OCAMPO, 2006) and observing a trend of emergence of a multimonetary system (EICHENGREEN, 2011), the main goal is to answer the following questions: (i) would be viable the emergence of a South American monetary subsystem focused on the Brazilian economy? (ii) given the regional differences, how integration can progress without compromising national development? and (iii) the mechanisms of monetary and financial cooperation that exist today can ensure progress in regional integration?

The aim of this thesis is to analyze and assess the benefits and cosi resulting from the implementation of common currency in a small open economy in specific cases in chosen countries. The theoretical part is devoted to the monetary integration itself, its historical development in Europe anf the theory of optimum currency area. Attention will be focused also on the entry criteria of monetary union and the specifics of small open economies within the frame of monetary union. The analytical part evaluates and compares the readiness of chosen economies. Subsequently, the thesis deals with benefits and costs of monetary integration and their significance in a particular situation on the example of chosen countries. Individual benefits and costs will also be put into context with the crisis of monetary union. The results are discussed in conclusion.

The purpose of the dissertation is to establish a framework with which to assess the prospective gains from regional monetary integration among five neighboring countries in East Africa: Burundi, Kenya, Rwanda, Tanzania, and Uganda. The neo-classical theory assumes that economic and monetary union would stimulate additional growth in such a union as a whole, with the trickle-down effects of overall development, and would enhance factor mobility, solving the problem of regional disparity automatically. Past experiences of African regionalism have shown that countries that participated in a monetary union were able to pursue credible monetary policies. This economic performance has been credited to their monetary policy discipline. Since countries in East Africa are small both in terms of their individual populations and the respective sizes of their economies, the study concludes that regional integration is a useful way of increasing their economic clout and bargaining power on the global scene. / Economics / Thesis (M. Comm.)

The purpose of the dissertation is to establish a framework with which to assess the prospective gains from regional monetary integration among five neighboring countries in East Africa: Burundi, Kenya, Rwanda, Tanzania, and Uganda. The neo-classical theory assumes that economic and monetary union would stimulate additional growth in such a union as a whole, with the trickle-down effects of overall development, and would enhance factor mobility, solving the problem of regional disparity automatically. Past experiences of African regionalism have shown that countries that participated in a monetary union were able to pursue credible monetary policies. This economic performance has been credited to their monetary policy discipline. Since countries in East Africa are small both in terms of their individual populations and the respective sizes of their economies, the study concludes that regional integration is a useful way of increasing their economic clout and bargaining power on the global scene. / Economics / Thesis (M. Comm.)

The objective of the study is to establish how original financial integration could be attained in southern Africa in order to attract more foreign investment and develop a financially robust and stable region in the southern part of Africa; also to deal with the challenges, risks and remedies of prospective future financial crises. Financial markets are rapidly integrating into a single global market. Developing countries of various regions are drawn into the process with little choice, and without having sound financial infrastructure and policies in place. It is against this background that countries and regions of global integration choose policies that would benefit their regional economy and avert potential economic shock. The challenges posed to countries and regions by the progressive global integration of financial markets are becoming more urgent by the day. These challenges need to be addressed more effectively, either nationally or regionally, as demonstrated by the 1998 financial turmoil in Asia. Private capital flows are becoming intra regionally concentrated, particularly in the USA, Europe, Asia and Latin America. Be that as it may, failure in one market is likely to have immediate and large regional repercussions. Globalisation also marginalises Africa and other Least Developed Countries (LDC), leaving them more impoverished and with greater disparities in terms of income, GDP and FDI. Regional financial integration has to be efficient and sound in order to prevent or contain currency and capital market crises in the southern African region. This study identifies macro economic challenges and risks associated with financial integration. Recommendations are made about methodologies of addressing these issues in order to realise the benefits of regional financial integration in southern Africa, which could be a building block in realising the dream of an African Monetary Union. The study contributes greatly to the debate around the most appropriate criteria that are to be met by the SADC countries, before monetary integration can become a reality. A comparison of the benchmark macro economic convergence criteria of the EU and of the African Monetary Union is done and the performance of SADC countries is assessed in terms of both sets of benchmarks. Southern African states are found to not even be at a comparable level with regard to the EU targets of 1997. The thesis is also critical to the impact of the political instability in the SADC region on prospective monetary integration. Most importantly, SADC would be at a permanent disadvantage and face a long-run depreciation of its common currency, should it continue to integrate financially at macro economic benchmark levels inferior to those of its major trading partner, the EU. / Thesis (PhD)--University of Pretoria, 2009. / Economics / unrestricted

This diploma thesis - The evolution of Great Britain's, Germany's and the Czech Republic's stance on the European monetary integration - analyses the development of approaches of the states mentioned above. It assesses the pros and cons of this process. The research is carried out in such a manner that after analyzing a rather pro-European and one rather anti-European stance a synthesis of approaches is done. As a result, a recommendation to join the euro is given to the Czech Republic.