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<p>Hourly archived rainfall records are separated into individual rainfall events with</p> <p>an Inter-Event Time Denition. Individual storms are characterized by their depth,</p> <p>duration, and peak intensity. Severe events are selected from among the events for</p> <p>a given station. A lower limit, or threshold depth is used to make this selection,</p> <p>and an upper duration limit is established. A small number of events per year are</p> <p>left, which have relatively high depth and average intensity appropriate to small</p> <p>to medium catchment responses. The Generalized Pareto Distributions are tted</p> <p>to the storm depth data, and a bounded probability distribution is tted to storm</p> <p>duration. Peak storm intensity is bounded by continuity imposed by storm depth</p> <p>and duration. These physical limits are used to develop an index measure of peak</p> <p>storm intensity, called intensity peak factor, bounded on (0; 1), and tted to the Beta</p> <p>distribution. The joint probability relationship among storm variables is established,</p> <p>combining increasing storm depth, increasing intensity peak factor, with decreasing</p> <p>storm duration as being the best description of increasing rainstorm severity. The</p> <p>joint probability of all three variables can be modelled with a bivariate copula of</p> <p>the marginal distributions of duration and intensity peak factor, combined simply</p> <p>with the marginal distribution of storm depth. The parameters of the marginal</p> <p>distributions of storm variables, and the frequency of occurrence of threshold-excess</p> <p>events are used to assess possible shifts in their values as a function of time and</p> <p>temperature, in order to evaluate potential climate change eects for several stations.</p> <p>Example applications of the joint probability of storm variables are provided that</p> <p>illustrate the need to apply the methods developed.</p> <p>The overall contributions of this research combine applications of existing probabilistic</p> <p>tools, with unique characterizations of rainstorm variables. Relationships</p> <p>between these variables are examined to produce a new description of storm severity,</p> <p>and to begin the assessment of the eects of climate change upon severe rainstorm</p> <p>events.</p> <p>i</p> / Doctor of Philosophy (PhD)

This study investigated the attitudes and perceptions of nurse managers regarding cost containment issues in selected public hospitals in the Port Elizabeth metropole of the Eastern Cape. Four hospitals participated in the study, and 211 nurse managers completed questionnaires. The results obtained from the participants&#8217; responses indicated that: &#10022; Nurse managers are ill-prepared for many responsibilities regarding cost containment, and need appropriate orientation and preparation both during their initial formal, and during their nurse management and in service training in order to fulfil their &#8220;financial&#8221; or cost containment role more effectively. &#10022; Nurse managers perceived the relationship between the productivity of staff and cost containment positively, but were reportedly unable to &#8226; prevent nurses from leaving their points of duty &#8226; curb the rate of absenteeism among nurses &#8226; reduce the number of resignations &#10022; Nurse managers suggested that more effective hospital cost containment efforts should ensure that &#8226; effective security checks are performed to curb losses of stock and equipment &#8226; more public telephones are installed in hospitals &#8226; stricter controls regarding wheelchairs are implemented The rationalisation of staff and services, as well as specialised equipment among the four public hospitals could enhance these hospitals&#8217; cost containment results. However, this would necessitate reorganising these hospitals&#8217; services at provincial level. The nurse managers required more knowledge about hospitals&#8217; financial management and cost containment issues. Guidelines for such a course were developed addressing: analysis of monthly variance reports; budgeting for manpower; balance statement; calculations for the supplies and expenses budget; income statements; the hospital&#8217;s budgetary cycle; break-even analysis; analysis of cost-effectiveness and cost-benefit analysis. / ADVANCED NURSING SCIENCES / D.Litt. et Phil.

因有眾多實證研究支持若隨持有期不同，而能適時調整投資策略，便可獲取超額報酬，且月營收資訊具有相當程度的資訊內涵。因此，本研究延伸傳統動能策略的概念，而改以三種當月營收成長率做為篩選投資組合的條件，進而形成營收動能策略(sales momentum strategy)，研究主要目的為欲確認此策略於台灣股市之有效性，並同時印證『強者恆強』與『漲時重勢、跌時重質』觀念是否適用。再者，亦提供利用市場公開訊息建構投資組合之選擇，以協助彌補一般投資者無法與專業機構法人同步取得領先資訊之劣勢，進而改善投資績效。 本研究投資組合建構之方式為，於每月11日，上市公司月營收全數公布，並可自TEJ資料庫取得完整資料時，依照當月營收月增率、當月營收年增率及當月累計營收年增率等三項篩選條件，分別將所有上市公司進行排序，排序方式則區分為十等分(10%)及五等分(20%)兩種。其中，成長率排名前10%或20%的群體稱為贏家組合，排名後10%或20%的群體則稱為輸家組合。當贏、輸家組合篩選完成後，買入贏家組合，同時賣出輸家組合，即可產生一零成本營收動能策略投資組合。 綜合本研究各項實證分析的結果推斷，營收動能策略於台灣股市確實具有其效果，亦即台灣股市的投資人對於營收成長率訊息普遍存在反應不足現象，且印證營收宣告存在資訊內涵，惟各種投資組合績效將因篩選條件與持有期不同而產生差異。其中，尤以當月營收年增率為篩選條件，所建構之營收動能策略投資組合可獲得最佳的績效表現，且獲利並非來自於承擔市場系統性風險。此外，營收動能策略投資組合之元月效應並不明顯，而『強者恆強』與『漲時重勢、跌時重質』的觀念，則的確存在一定的參考價值。

本論文由作者／編輯群、文本、文化三大脈絡切入，以此觀察晚清四大小說之一的《月月小說》。藉由此環環相扣三者，以考察《月月小說》作為一本小說、文學刊物之主體性，及其在文學史、小說發展史上的意義。 第一章緒論，說明本論文之研究動機、相關文獻回顧，以及研究方法與步驟，以此作為本論文之基礎；第二章討論《月月小說》聚合的作者／編輯群體，探討其小說觀、知識狀態及編輯行為，我們可從中了解，《月月小說》除了「啟蒙」的重責大任外，更具備了小說休閒、趣味、通俗的本色。而小說家們選擇了融合新舊的文化道路，以此回應當時社會的諸多問題。 第三章討論小說敘事的轉變，透過對傳統小說技巧挪用的考察，以及對「譯」、「述」的梳理，可知《月月小說》對於「小說」文類具有高度的自覺與嘗試；第四章為小說題材類型論，將《月月小說》的小說文本分為趣味、道德、啟蒙三大部分考察，即便就表面看來十分不精準且雜亂的分類，仔細探究後，仍可見其中各自的特性與相互對話之處；第五章討論小說的時事與社會關注，以文本世界為中心，考察小說如何重寫時事。可以發現，《月月小說》雖揭露、陳列許多問題，但卻用小說的幽默、趣味筆調消解了當中的重量，用笑聲翻轉了政令、美德的價值。 第六章著眼於《月月小說》其他文類的作品，由此我們發現，《月月小說》透過多種文類去支撐、呼應其刊物主旨，但在隨筆、燈謎等文字背後，卻折射出了知識遊戲的光芒，凸顯了對啟蒙的質疑，以及其中休閒的可能。 第七章為結論，總述先前論點，並提出本論文之觀察：《月月小說》在近、現代小說史上，正巧連接了「新小說」（文學啟蒙）和「禮拜六」（文學休閒）兩者，並為充滿啟蒙、現代性智識體驗的晚清小說，開啟了其他面向的風景。 / I attempt to analyze The All-Story Monthly(《月月小說》) which is one of the 4 modern times novel magazines in 3 ways that are authors-editors, text and culture. I attempt to derive the subjectivity of The All-Story Monthly from these 3 ways, and elucidate its meaning of literary history and the development of fiction history. The first chapter is an introduction of this essay. In second chapter, I discuss the authors-editors. I conclude that in addition to enlightment, there is an interesting gist of The All-Story Monthly . In third chapter, I discuss the transition of narrative skills. To study the using of traditional narrative skills and analyze the texts of translations, we could comprehend that the authors tried various methods to vary narrative skills with highly conscientious of “novel”. In forth chapter, I discuss the classified catalogues of The All-Story Monthly. In my opinion, there is a distinct theme of each catalogue and they all rely on the gist of the magazine. In fifth chapter, I study the difference between novels and essays which using same social materials. It is clear to perceive that authors using an interesting way to “rewrite” news or histories. In sixth chapter, I deliberate about the texts of other literary genres. There is a leisure literary phenomenon in these texts. In seventh chapter, the conclusion, I present that The All-Story Monthly is a significant magazine of Chinese modern times literary history. It is a transition stage between Xin Xiao Shou(新小說) (literary enlightment) and Li Bai Liu(禮拜六) (leisure literature).

Uma versão do POM - Princeton Ocean Model foi implementada no litoral norte do Estado de São Paulo, região compreendida entre as longitudes 46o e 44o30\'W e latitudes 24o30\' e 23o18\'S, abrangendo as cidades de Bertioga, São Sebastião, Caraguatatuba e Ubatuba, da linha da costa até aproximadamente a isóbata de 100 m, para estudos da resposta do mar ao vento. Para tanto foram realizados diferentes experimentos numéricos, combinando diferentes períodos e forçantes (de maré, vento e campos médios mensais de temperatura e salinidade). As respostas das simulações foram comparadas entre si, com estudos anteriores e a dados reais de diferentes fontes (marégrafo, correntômetro e altímetro). As simulações reproduziram razoavelmente os dados medidos, demostrando uma boa calibração do modelo. Foi observado o padrão de correntes predominantes para sudoeste, infuenciado pela Alta Subtropical do Atlântico Sul e seus ventos de nordeste, bem como eventuais efeitos de frentes frias com ventos de sudoeste e correntes para nordeste.Também se observou que as frentes frias mais intensas não ocorreram nos meses de inverno para os processamentos do ano de 2005, que apresentou várias situações anômalas, como por exemplo: um mês de Fevereiro com excepcional persistência de ventos do quadrante sul; ventos muito fracos em Março; Junho também com ventos fracos e praticamente ausência de frentes frias; e Setembro e Outubro com incursões muito freqüentes de frentes. Apesar das anomalias dos ventos e correspondentes campos de correntes, variações dos valores médios mensais de elevação da superfície do mar foram mais regulares, reproduzindo inclusive os valores medidos por altimetria, com um ciclo sazonal bem definido, o que provavelmente se deve ao fato das elevações da superfície do mar serem mais dependentes da circulação geral no Atlântico Sul e menos dependentes de ventos locais. Também foram analisados através da modelagem, os campos hidrodinâmicos causados por diversas combinações de condições de maré (típicas e extremas) e de efeitos meteorológicos (predominantes e extremos). O processamento final do modelo indicou que a circulação de maré é uma boa aproximação da circulação total, com exceção de períodos em que ocorrem eventos meteorológicos extremos. / A version of POM - Princeton Ocean Model was used in the northern coastal area of São Paulo State, longitudes 46o ? 44o30\'W and latitudes 24o30\' ? 23o18\'S, with the cities of Bertioga, São Sebastião, Caraguatatuba e Ubatuba in the domain, from the coast to the 100m isobath, to study the sea response to the wind forcing. For this purpose, several numerical experiment were performed, involving different periods and forcings (including tides, winds and monthly means fields of temperature and salinity). The simulations results were compared to other studies, with real observations from several sources methods (tide gauge, current meter and altimeter). The simulations reproduced reasonably the real datas, showing a good model calibration. Standard currents to the southeast, were observed, due to the South Atlantic Subtropical High influence and its northeast winds, as well as eventual northeast currents generated by cold fronts with southeast winds. It was also observed that the strongest cold fronts did not occur in winter\'s months in the model runs of the year of 2005, which presented several anomalies, as for example: February exceptional southern winds persistence; very weak winds in March; June practically without colds fronts and weak winds too; and September and October with frequent cold fronts incursions. Despite the wind anomalies and correspondent currents fields, the monthly means elevations of sea surface has regular pattern, reproducing the altimeter data, with clear seasonal cycle, probably because the sea surface elevations depend more on the general circulation in the South Atlantic and not on the local winds. Through the modeling hydrodynamical fields generated by differents tidal conditions (typical and extremes) and by several meteorological effect (standard and extremes) were analyzed. The last model processement indicate that tidal circulation is a god approximation of the total circulation, except when extreme meteorological events occur.

Uma versão do POM - Princeton Ocean Model foi implementada no litoral norte do Estado de São Paulo, região compreendida entre as longitudes 46o e 44o30\'W e latitudes 24o30\' e 23o18\'S, abrangendo as cidades de Bertioga, São Sebastião, Caraguatatuba e Ubatuba, da linha da costa até aproximadamente a isóbata de 100 m, para estudos da resposta do mar ao vento. Para tanto foram realizados diferentes experimentos numéricos, combinando diferentes períodos e forçantes (de maré, vento e campos médios mensais de temperatura e salinidade). As respostas das simulações foram comparadas entre si, com estudos anteriores e a dados reais de diferentes fontes (marégrafo, correntômetro e altímetro). As simulações reproduziram razoavelmente os dados medidos, demostrando uma boa calibração do modelo. Foi observado o padrão de correntes predominantes para sudoeste, infuenciado pela Alta Subtropical do Atlântico Sul e seus ventos de nordeste, bem como eventuais efeitos de frentes frias com ventos de sudoeste e correntes para nordeste.Também se observou que as frentes frias mais intensas não ocorreram nos meses de inverno para os processamentos do ano de 2005, que apresentou várias situações anômalas, como por exemplo: um mês de Fevereiro com excepcional persistência de ventos do quadrante sul; ventos muito fracos em Março; Junho também com ventos fracos e praticamente ausência de frentes frias; e Setembro e Outubro com incursões muito freqüentes de frentes. Apesar das anomalias dos ventos e correspondentes campos de correntes, variações dos valores médios mensais de elevação da superfície do mar foram mais regulares, reproduzindo inclusive os valores medidos por altimetria, com um ciclo sazonal bem definido, o que provavelmente se deve ao fato das elevações da superfície do mar serem mais dependentes da circulação geral no Atlântico Sul e menos dependentes de ventos locais. Também foram analisados através da modelagem, os campos hidrodinâmicos causados por diversas combinações de condições de maré (típicas e extremas) e de efeitos meteorológicos (predominantes e extremos). O processamento final do modelo indicou que a circulação de maré é uma boa aproximação da circulação total, com exceção de períodos em que ocorrem eventos meteorológicos extremos. / A version of POM - Princeton Ocean Model was used in the northern coastal area of São Paulo State, longitudes 46o ? 44o30\'W and latitudes 24o30\' ? 23o18\'S, with the cities of Bertioga, São Sebastião, Caraguatatuba e Ubatuba in the domain, from the coast to the 100m isobath, to study the sea response to the wind forcing. For this purpose, several numerical experiment were performed, involving different periods and forcings (including tides, winds and monthly means fields of temperature and salinity). The simulations results were compared to other studies, with real observations from several sources methods (tide gauge, current meter and altimeter). The simulations reproduced reasonably the real datas, showing a good model calibration. Standard currents to the southeast, were observed, due to the South Atlantic Subtropical High influence and its northeast winds, as well as eventual northeast currents generated by cold fronts with southeast winds. It was also observed that the strongest cold fronts did not occur in winter\'s months in the model runs of the year of 2005, which presented several anomalies, as for example: February exceptional southern winds persistence; very weak winds in March; June practically without colds fronts and weak winds too; and September and October with frequent cold fronts incursions. Despite the wind anomalies and correspondent currents fields, the monthly means elevations of sea surface has regular pattern, reproducing the altimeter data, with clear seasonal cycle, probably because the sea surface elevations depend more on the general circulation in the South Atlantic and not on the local winds. Through the modeling hydrodynamical fields generated by differents tidal conditions (typical and extremes) and by several meteorological effect (standard and extremes) were analyzed. The last model processement indicate that tidal circulation is a god approximation of the total circulation, except when extreme meteorological events occur.

From the Proceedings of the 1972 Meetings of the Arizona Section - American Water Resources Assn. and the Hydrology Section - Arizona Academy of Science - May 5-6, 1972, Prescott, Arizona / A critique of statistical properties of monthly flows on an ephemeral stream in Arizona is given. A subjective procedure, justified for managerial purposes not concerned with the variability of flow within the month, is proposed for sequential generation of monthly flow data. Ephemeral flows should be modeled by starting with at least historical daily flows for more meaningful monthly flow models. Stochastic properties of monthly streamflows and state transition probabilities are reviewed with regard to ephemeral streams. A flow chart for a streamflow model geared to digital computers, with a simulation of streamflow subroutine, is developed. Meaningful monthly flow models could serve as a check on alternative models (subjective matrix, lag-one auto regressive, harmonic, bivariate normal, bivariate log-normal models). Rules and guidelines are presented in developing meaningful probability matrices.