In Multi-Agenten-Systemen (MAS) kooperieren und konkurrieren Agenten um ihre jeweiligen Ziele zu erreichen. Für optimierte Agenten-Interaktionen sind Kenntnisse über die aktuellen und zukünftigen Handlungen anderer Agenten (Interaktionsparter, IP) hilfreich. Bei der Ermittlung und Nutzung solcher Kenntnisse kommt dem automatischen Erkennen und Verstehen sowie der Vorhersage von Verhalten der IP auf Basis von Beobachtungen besondere Bedeutung zu. Die Dissertation beschäftigt sich mit der automatischen Bestimmung und Vorhersage von Verhalten der IP durch einen Modellierenden Agenten (MA). Der MA generiert fallbasierte, adaptive Verhaltens-Modelle seiner IP und verwendet diese zur Vorhersage ihrer Verhalten. Als Anwendungsszenario wird mit dem virtuellen Fußballspiel des RoboCup ein komplexes und populäres MAS betrachtet. Der Hauptbeitrag dieser Arbeit besteht in der Ausarbeitung, Realisierung und Evaluierung eines Ansatzes zur automatischen Verhaltens-Modellierung für ein komplexes Multi-Agenten-System. / In multi-agent-systems agents cooperate and compete to reach their personal goals. For optimized agent interactions it is helpful for an agent to have knowledge about the current and future behavior of other agents. Ideally the recognition and prediction of behavior should be done automatically. This work addresses a way of automatically classifying and an attempt at predicting the behavior of a team of agents, based on external observation only. A set of conditions is used to distinguish behaviors and to partition the resulting behavior space. From observed behavior, team specific behavior models are then generated using Case Based Reasoning. These models, which are derived from a number of virtual soccer games (RoboCup), are used to predict the behavior of a team during a new game. The main contribution of this work is the design, realization and evaluation of an automatic behavior modeling approach for complex multi-agent systems.

One of the main focus of research on multi-agent systems is that of coordination in a group of agents to solve problems that are beyond the capability of a single agent. Each agent in the multi-agent system has limited capacity and/or knowledge which makes coordination a challenging task. Applications of multi-agent systems in space and ocean exploration, military surveillance and rescue missions, require the agents to achieve some consensus in their motion. The consensus has to be achieved and maintained without a centralized controller. Multi-agent system research borrows ideas from the biological world where such motion consensus strategies can be found in the flocking of birds, schooling of fishes, and colony of ants. One such classes of strategies are the cyclic pursuit strategies which mimic the behavior of dogs, birds, ants, or beetles, where one agent pursues another in a cyclic manner, and are commonly referred to as the `bugs' problem, In the literature, cyclic pursuit laws have been applied to a swarm of homogenous agents, where there exists a predefined cyclic connection between agents and each agent follows its predecessor. At equilibrium, the agents reach consensus in relative positions. Equilibrium formation, convergence, rate of convergence, and stability are some of the aspects that have been studied under cyclic pursuit. In this thesis, the notion of cyclic pursuit has been generalized. In cyclic pursuit, usually agents are homogenous in the sense of having identical speeds and controller gains where an agent has an unique predecessor whom it follows. This is defined as the basic cyclic pursuit (BCP) and the sequence of connection among the agents is defined as the Pursuit sequence (PS). We first generalize this system by assuming heterogeneous speed and controller gains. Then, we consider a strategy where an agent can follow a weighted centroid of a group of other agents instead of a single agent. This is called centroidal cyclic pursuit (CCP). In CCP, the set of weights used by the agents are assumed to be the same. We generalize this further by considering the set of weights adopted by each agent to be different. This defines a generalized centroidal cyclic pursuit (GCCP). The behavior of the agents under BCP, CCP and GCCP are studied in this thesis. We show that a group of holonomic agents, under the cyclic pursuit laws ¡ BCP, CCP and GCCP ¡ can be represented as a linear system. The stability of this system is shown to depend on the gains of the agents. A stable system leads to a rendezvous of the agents. The point of rendezvous, also called the reachable point, is a function of the gains. In this thesis, the conditions for stability of the heterogeneous system of agents in cyclic pursuit are obtained. Also, the reachable point is obtained as a function of the controller gains. The reachable set, which is a region in space where rendezvous can occur, given the initial positions of the agents, are determined and a procedure is proposed for calculating the gains of the agents for rendezvous to occur at any desired point within the reachable set. Invariance properties of stability, reachable point and reachable set, with respect to the pursuit sequence and the weights are shown to exist for these linear cyclic pursuit laws. When the linear system is unstable, the agents are shown to exhibit directed motion. We obtain the conditions under which such directed motion is possible. The straight line asymptote to which the agents converge is characterized by the gains and the pursuit sequence of the agents. The straight lines asymptote always passes through a point, called the asymptote point, for given initial positions and gains of the agents. This invariance property of the asymptote point with respect to the pursuit sequence and the weights are proved. For non-homonymic agents, cyclic pursuit strategies give rise to a system of nonlinear state equations. It is shown that the system at equilibrium converges to a rigid polygonal formation that rotates in space. The agents move in concentric circles at equilibrium. The formation at equilibrium and the conditions for equilibrium are obtained for heterogeneous speeds and controller gains. The application of cyclic pursuit strategies to autonomous vehicles requires the satisfaction of some realistic restrictions like maximum speed limits, maximum latex limits, etc. The performances of the strategies with these limitations are discussed. It is also observed that the cyclic pursuit strategies can also be used to model some behavior of biological organisms such as schools of fishes.

過去多重代理人系統相關研究中，皆假設任務是預先知道而且確定的，這使得它們無法即時滿足使用者需求，因而在實務上受到限制。因此本研究期望能將多重代理人系統的工作向前延伸，引入人類社會中的價值觀，進而模擬出人類解決問題的思考模式，將能夠放寬任務給定的限制，幫助傳統多重代理人系統提昇彈性、適用於更為動態複雜的環境，即時地滿足使用者需求。任務發掘意指幫助多重代理人系統找出合適任務的過程，將任務發掘應用於多重代理人系統，最主要的挑戰在於－「什麼任務才能滿足需求」；換句話說，「找出需求」。價值(value)正是引起社會交換(social exchange)的元素，價值觀則是人類對於該價值之看法。重視該價值觀為希望於交換過程中獲得該價值，不重視該價值觀為願意於交換過程中犠牲該價值，然而重視有程度之分，即希望獲得/願意犠牲之優先順序。衝突即為依據該優先順序以重視之價值換取不重視之價值的交換行為；最低衝突則為以最不重視之價值換取最重視之價值的交換行為。若能以最低衝突進行交換即最能符合使用者價值觀；最符合使用者價值觀之決策則能滿足使用者之需求。透過本研究所發展之衝突解析演算法，將能夠找出與使用者價值觀最低衝突之代理人團隊，以使用者價值觀點出發，發掘出情境化任務，有效地滿足使用者需求。 / Most existing multi-agent systems (MAS) presume that the tasks to be resolved are given. However, this assumption sometimes renders the systems unrealistic. A sound mission discovery mechanism would exempt this assumption and offer flexibility and adaptation in resolving the user’s problem in dynamic complexity environments. The major challenge of mission discovery in MAS, in general, rests on how to associate missions to the user’s needs (i.e., the identification of the user’s needs). “Value” is anything that can give rise to exchange. For instance, if someone can help his friend no matter what the price he would pay for, then it means that the moral value surpasses the economics value for the case. Based on the theory of social exchange, this paper devises a Conflict Resolution Algorithm that aims to allocate an agent team of the members with the least value conflict so as to discover the contextualized missions that could fulfill the user’s needs.

L'experiència de l'autor en la temàtica d'agents intel·ligents i la seva aplicació als robots que emulen el joc de futbol han donat el bagatge suficient per poder encetar i proposar la temàtica plantejada en aquesta tesi: com fer que un complicat robot pugui treure el màxim suc de l'autoconeixement de l'estructura de control inclosa al seu propi cos físic, i així poder cooperar millor amb d'altres agents per optimitzar el rendiment a l'hora de resoldre problemes de cooperació. Per resoldre aquesta qüestió es proposa incorporar la dinàmica del cos físic en les decisions cooperatives dels agents físics unificant els móns de l'automàtica, la robòtica i la intel·ligència artificial a través de la noció de capacitat: la capacitat vista com a entitat on els enginyers de control dipositen el seu coneixement, i a la vegada la capacitat vista com la utilitat on un agent hi diposita el seu autoconeixement del seu cos físic que ha obtingut per introspecció. En aquesta tesi es presenta l'arquitectura DPAA que s'organitza seguint una jerarquia vertical en tres nivells d'abstracció o mòduls control, supervisor i agent, els quals presenten una estructura interna homogènia que facilita les tasques de disseny de l'agent. Aquests mòduls disposen d'un conjunt específic de capacitats que els permeten avaluar com seran les accions que s'executaran en un futur. En concret, al mòdul de control (baix nivell d'abstracció) les capacitats consisteixen en paràmetres que descriuen el comportament dinàmic i estàtic que resulta d'executar un controlador determinat, és a dir, encapsulen el coneixement de l'enginyer de control. Així, a través dels mecanismes de comunicació entre mòduls aquest coneixement pot anar introduint-se als mecanismes de decisió dels mòduls superiors (supervisor i agent) de forma que quan els paràmetres dinàmics i estàtics indiquin que pot haver-hi problemes a baix nivell, els mòduls superiors es poden responsabilitzar d'inhibir o no l'execució d'algunes accions. Aquest procés top-down intern d'avaluació de la viabilitat d'executar una acció determinada s'anomena procés d'introspecció. Es presenten diversos exemples per tal d'il·lustrar com es pot dissenyar un agent físic amb dinàmica pròpia utilitzant l'arquitectura DPAA com a referent. En concret, es mostra tot el procés a seguir per dissenyar un sistema real format per dos robots en formació de comboi, i es mostra com es pot resoldre el problema de la col·lisió utilitzant les capacitats a partir de les especificacions de disseny de l'arquitectura DPAA. Al cinquè capítol s'hi exposa el procés d'anàlisi i disseny en un domini més complex: un grup de robots que emulen el joc del futbol. Els resultats que s'hi mostren fan referència a l'avaluació de la validesa de l'arquitectura per resoldre el problema de la passada de la pilota. S'hi mostren diversos resultats on es veu que és possible avaluar si una passada de pilota és viable o no. Encara que aquesta possibilitat ja ha estat demostrada en altres treballs, l'aportació d'aquesta tesi està en el fet que és possible avaluar la viabilitat a partir de l'encapsulament de la dinàmica en unes capacitats específiques, és a dir, és possible saber quines seran les característiques de la passada: el temps del xut, la precisió o inclòs la geometria del moviment del robot xutador. Els resultats mostren que la negociació de les condicions de la passada de la pilota és possible a partir de capacitats atòmiques, les quals inclouen informació sobre les característiques de la dinàmica dels controladors. La complexitat del domini proposat fa difícil comparar els resultats amb els altres treballs. Cal tenir present que els resultats mostrats s'han obtingut utilitzant un simulador fet a mida que incorpora les dinàmiques dels motors dels robots i de la pilota. En aquest sentit cal comentar que no existeixen treballs publicats sobre el problema de la passada en què es tingui en compte la dinàmica dels robots.El present treball permet assegurar que la inclusió de paràmetres dinàmics en el conjunt de les capacitats de l'agent físic permet obtenir un millor comportament col·lectiu dels robots, i que aquesta millora es deu al fet que en les etapes de decisió els agents utilitzen informació relativa a la viabilitat sobre les seves accions: aquesta viabilitat es pot calcular a partir del comportament dinàmic dels controladors. De fet, la definició de capacitats a partir de paràmetres dinàmics permet treballar fàcilment amb sistemes autònoms heterogenis: l'agent físic pot ser conscient de les seves capacitats d'actuació a través de mecanismes interns d'introspecció, i això permet que pugui prendre compromisos amb altres agents físics.

Safety of the airborne platforms rests heavily on the way they are maintained. This maintenance includes repairs and testing, to reduce platform down time. Maintenance is performed using generic and specific test equipment within the existing maintenance management system (MMS). This thesis reports the work undertaken to improve maintainability and availability of avionics systems using an intelligent decision support system (IDSS). In order to understand the shortcomings of the existing system, the prevalent practices and methodologies are researched. This research thesis reports the development and implementation of an IDSS and the significant improvements made by this IDSS by integrating autonomous and independent information sources by employing a multi-agent system (MAS). Data mining techniques and intelligence agents (IA) are employed to create an expert system. The developed IDSS successfully demonstrates its ability to integrate and collate the available information and convert into valuable knowledge. Using this knowledge, the IDSS is able to generate interpreted alerts, warnings and recommendations thereby reasonably improving platform maintainability and availability. All facets of integrated logistics support (ILS) are considered to create a holistic picture. As the system ages, the IDSS also matures to assist managers and maintainers in making informed decisions about the platform, the unit under test (UUT) and even the environment that supports the platform.

Dans le but de remédier aux problèmes aujourd’hui omniprésents dans le secteur du transport, qu’ils soient financiers, environnementaux ou autres, nous nous intéressons à l’établissement d’un système de covoiturage dynamique optimisé. La voiture partagée est venue subvenir à des besoins restés insatisfaits en matière de déplacement (flexibilité spatiotemporelle…) encourageant l’émergence d’un mode de transport révolutionnaire qu’est la comodalité. Le focus est alors mis sur la complémentarité entre les modes collectifs et individuels et vient considérer la voiture partagée et plus particulièrement le covoiturage comme des modes de transport à part entière. Placés dans ce cadre, nous nous intéressons à l’aspect temps réel dans les systèmes de covoiturage et développons nos travaux dans ce sens. Ce problème ayant une complexité qui n’est pas des moindres, tous nos efforts sont dirigés dans le but de contrecarrer cet obstacle et mettre en œuvre une application logicielle compétitive à grande échelle offrant satisfaction et qualité de service. Pour ce faire, nous considérons une alliance des systèmes multi-agents et des techniques d’optimisation donnant lieu à des agents optimisateurs répartis selon une modélisation de graphe dynamique distribué. Celui-ci est établi sur la base d’un principe de décomposition du réseau géographique desservi inspiré des techniques de classification pour la mise en exergue des zones de concentration des abonnés. Cette modélisation favorise le traitement parallèle des requêtes de par la décentralisation et décomposition du processus initial sur une multitude d’agents optimisateurs chargés chacun d’une ou plusieurs tâches de moindre complexité / In an attempt to address the transportation problems now ubiquitous, may them be financial, environmental or any, we are mainly involved with the establishment of a dynamic optimized carpooling service. Shared cars came to remedy these problems and meet the longtime remained unsatisfied needs (spatiotemporal flexibility…) and so promote the comodal practice. The stress is then put on the complementarity between collective and individual means of transportation and comes to confirm the shared car and more particularly the carpooling as a transport mode as a whole. Based on this, we are mainly interested in setting up a real time ridesharing service providing the needed efficiency in such a context. In fact, the problem we tackle has a complexity of exponential order which must be wiped out preventing from adverse impacts. Blending the agent paradigm with the optimization technics helped reach our goals of implementing a large-scale competitive and fully automated support and providing the necessary efficiency and quality of service. The proposed alliance is realized through communicating optimizing agents spread according to a distributed dynamic graph modeling. The latter is established through a subdivision process of the served geographic network and has been inspired from clustering technics to put the stress on limited and intersecting areas of high density. This helps to promote the parallel requests treatment over a decentralized process. Thus, each optimizing agent firstly manage the requests parts included within the zone it is responsible for and then recompose global responses in coalition with concerned agents in a distributed artificial intelligence context

Made available in DSpace on 2014-12-17T15:47:58Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 DanielleGFM_DISSERT.pdf: 2687890 bytes, checksum: b53115296e0be43418332dfb089a931a (MD5) Previous issue date: 2011-05-13 / Coordena??o de Aperfei?oamento de Pessoal de N?vel Superior / The World Wide Web has been consolidated over the last years as a standard platform to provide software systems in the Internet. Nowadays, a great variety of user applications are available on the Web, varying from corporate applications to the banking domain, or from electronic commerce to the governmental domain. Given the quantity of information available and the quantity of users dealing with their services, many Web systems have sought to present recommendations of use as part of their functionalities, in order to let the users to have a better usage of the services available, based on their profile, history navigation and system use. In this context, this dissertation proposes the development of an agent-based framework that offers recommendations for users of Web systems. It involves the conception, design and implementation of an object-oriented framework. The framework agents can be plugged or unplugged in a non-invasive way in existing Web applications using aspect-oriented techniques. The framework is evaluated through its instantiation to three different Web systems / A World Wide Web, ou simplesmente Web, se consolidou ao longo dos ?ltimos anos como uma plataforma padr?o para disponibilizar sistemas de software de diferentes naturezas na Internet. Atualmente, uma grande variedade de aplica??es est? dispon?vel na plataforma Web, variando desde aplica??es corporativas do dom?nio banc?rio, governamental e at? com?rcio eletr?nico. Dada a quantidade de informa??o disponibilizada e de usu?rios usando seus servi?os, muitos sistemas Web tem buscado apresentar recomenda??es como parte de suas funcionalidades, com o objetivo de permitir ao usu?rio um melhor uso dos servi?os dispon?veis, baseado no perfil do usu?rio e no seu hist?rico de navega??o e uso do sistema. Neste contexto, este trabalho de disserta??o prop?e o desenvolvimento de um framework de agentes de usu?rio que ofere?am recomenda??es para usu?rios de sistemas Web. Este trabalho envolve a concep??o, projeto e implementa??o de um framework orientado a objetos que permite o desenvolvimento de agentes de usu?rio de recomenda??o para sistemas Web. Os agentes do framework podem ser plugados ou desplugados de forma n?o invasiva em aplica??es Web existentes, atrav?s de uma implementa??o orientada a aspectos. O framework foi avaliado atrav?s da sua instancia??o para tr?s sistemas Web de naturezas distinta

[pt] Uma Linha de Produtos de Sistemas Multi-agentes (LP-SMA) define uma arquitetura de linha de produto de software (LPS) cujo projeto e implementação são realizados usando agentes de software para compreender features comuns e variáveis. O desenvolvimento de LP-SMA pode ser feito através de plataformas específicas de SMA e técnicas de implementação. Exemplos de tais técnicas são: frameworks orientados a objetos, compilação condicional, arquivos de configuração e programação orientada a aspectos (POA). Todavia, os estudos empíricos existentes não focam na abordagem de LP-SMA, considerando diferentes técnicas de implementação e plataformas específicas de desenvolvimento de SMA. Nesse contexto, este trabalho apresenta uma comparação sistemática de diferentes técnicas de implementação de variabilidades de features de agentes no domínio de LP-SMA. Esta comparação sistemática envolveu o uso de duas plataformas de desenvolvimento de SMA (JADE e Jadex) e das técnicas de implementação: compilação condicional, arquivos de configuração e POA. Neste estudo, um conjunto de métricas de software foram utilizadas para avaliar atributos de qualidade, tais como modularidade e estabilidade. Para a realização deste estudo, duas LP-SMAs foram desenvolvidas. A primeira foi a LP-SMA do Expert Committee, uma linha de produto de sistemas de gerenciamento de conferências. A segunda foi a LP-SMA OLIS, que provê diversos serviços pessoais para os usuários. Os dados coletados durante a realização dos estudos empíricos permitiram o relato de um conjunto de lições aprendidas. / [en] A Multi-agent System Product Line (MAS-PL) defines a Software Product Line (SPL) architecture whose design and implementation are accomplished using software agents to address its common and variable features. The MAS-PL development can be performed through MAS specific platforms and implementation techniques. Examples of such techniques are: object-oriented frameworks, conditional compilation, configuration files and aspect-oriented programming (AOP). However, the existing empirical studies do not focus on MAS-PL approach, considering different implementation techniques and MAS specific platforms. In this context, this work presents a systematic comparison of different variability implementation techniques of agent features in the MAS-PL domain. This systematic comparison involved the use of two platforms of MAS development (JADE and Jadex) and implementation techniques conditional compilation, configuration files and AOP. In this study, a suite of software metries were used to evaluate quality attributes, such as modularity and stability. In order to perform this study, two MAS-PLs were developed. The first one was the Expert Commitee MAS-PL, a product line of conference management systems. The second one as the OLIS MAS-PL, which provides several personal services to the users. The collected data during the accomplished empirical studies allowed to report a set of lessons learned.

Zum Verständnis menschlichen sozialen, administrativen und wirtschaftlichen Verhaltens, das als Spiel bzw. strategische Interaktion aufgefasst werden kann, reichen die rein analytischen Methoden nicht aus. Es ist nötig, Daten menschlichen strategischen Verhaltens zu sammeln. Basierend auf Daten lässt sich solches Verhalten modellieren, simulieren bzw. vorhersagen. Der theoretische Teil der Zielsetzung wird über praxisorientierte Konzeptualisierung strategischer Interaktion realer Agenten - Menschen und Maschinen - und gegenseitige Integration der Konzepte aus Spieltheorie und Multiagentensysteme erreicht, die über die bisherigen Ansätze hinausgehen. Der praktische Teil besteht darin, ein allgemein verwendbares System zu entwerfen, das strategische Interaktionen zwischen realen Agenten mit maximalen wissenschaftlichen Nutzen durchführen kann. Die tatsächliche Implementation ist eines der Ergebnisse der Arbeit. Ähnliche vorhandene Systeme sind GDL-Server (für Maschinen) [Genesereth u.a., 2005] und z-Tree (für Menschen) [Fischbacher, 2007]. Die Arbeit ist in drei Bereiche unterteilt - (1) Entwicklung von Sprachen für die Beschreibung eines Spiels, (2) ein auf diesen Sprachen basierendes Softwaresystem und (3) eine Offline-Analyse der u.a. mit dem System bereits gesammelten Daten als Beitrag zur Möglichkeiten der Verhaltensbeschreibung. Die Innovation dieser Arbeit besteht nicht nur darin ,einzelne Bereiche mit einander zu kombinieren, sondern auch Fortschritte auf jedem Bereich für sich allein zu erreichen. Im Bereich der Spielbeschreibungssprachen, werden zwei Sprachen - PNSI und SIDL - vorgeschlagen, die beide Spiele bei imperfekter Information in diskreter Zeit definieren können. Dies ist ein Fortschritt gegenüber der bisherigen Sprachen wie Gala und GDL. Speziell die auf Petrinetzen basierende Sprache PNSI kann gleichermaßen für Gameserver und für spieltheoretische Algorithmen von z.B. GAMBIT verwendet werden. Das entwickelte System FRAMASI basiert auf JADE [Bellifemine u.a., 2001] und ist den bisherigen Client-Server-Lösungen durch Vorteile der Multiagentensysteme voraus. Mit dem entstandenen System wurde bereits ein Experiment entsprechend den Standards der experimentellen Spieltheorie durchgeführt und somit die Praxistauglichkeit nachgewiesen. Das Experiment hatte als Ziel, Daten zur menschlichen Unvorhersagbarkeit und zur Vorhersagefähigkeit anderer zu liefen. Dafür wurden Varianten von \"Knobeln\" verwendet. Die Daten dieses Experiments sowie eines Experiments einer externen Arbeitsgruppe mit ähnlicher Motivation wurden mit Hilfe von Datamining analysiert. Dabei wurden die in der Literatur berichteten Gesetzmäßigkeiten des Verhaltens nachgewiesen und weitere Gesetzmäßigkeiten entdeckt. / To understand human social, administrative and economic behavior, which can be considered as a game or strategic interaction, the purely analytical methods do not suffice. It is necessary to gather data of human strategic behavior. Based on data, one can model, simulate and predict such behavior. The theoretical part of the objective is achieved using a practice oriented conceptualization of the real agents\' - humans and machines - strategic interaction and mutual integration of the concepts from game theory and multi-agent systems, which go beyond the related work. The practical part is the design of an universally usable system that can perform the strategic interactions between real agents with maximum scientific benefit. The current implementation is one of the results of the work. Similar existing systems are GDL-server (for machines) [Genesereth et al., 2005] and z-Tree (for humans) [Fischbacher, 2007]. The work is divided in three fields - (1) development of languages for the description of a game, (2) a software system based on these languages and (3) an offline analysis of the data already gathered among other things using the system as a contribution to behavior definition facilities. The innovation of this work does not consist only in combining of the several fields to each other, but also in achieving of improvements in every field on its own. In the field of game definition languages, two languages are proposed - PNSI and SIDL, which both can define games of imperfect information in discrete time. It is an improvement comparing with hitherto languages as Gala and GDL. Especially, the Petri net based language PNSI can likewise be used for game servers and game theoretic algorithms like GAMBIT. The developed system FRAMASI is based on JADE [Bellifemine et al., 2001] and is ahead of the hitherto client-server solutions through the advantages of the multi-agent systems. Using the originated system, an experiment has been conducted according to the standards from the experimental game theory, and thus demonstrated the practicability. The experiment had the objective to provide data on the human unpredictability and the ability to predict others. Therefore, variants of Roshambo were used. The data from this experiment and from an experiment of an external workgroup with a similar motivation were analyzed using data mining. As results, the regularities of the behavior reported in literature have been demonstrated and further regularities have been discovered.

Dans la recherche de performance de chaînes logistiques, la modélisation et la simulation de ces chaînes prenant en compte des aspects organisationnels s‘avèrent nécessaire. Dans cette perspective, nous proposons tout d‘abord un nouveau cadre méthodologique de modélisation et simulation orienté agents de chaînes logistiques, prenant en compte explicitement les aspects organisationnels, tant structurels que dynamiques, ainsi que des observables et indicateurs dans la modélisation de ces chaînes. Ce cadre méthodologique est structuré selon deux niveaux d'abstraction principale qui sont : un niveau conceptuel et un niveau opérationnel. Pour chacun de ces niveaux nous avons différents modèles qui sont proposés et décrit en détail. Ensuite, afin de simuler les modèles de simulation de ces chaines logistiques obtenus par ce cadre méthodologique, nous proposons une architecture logicielle multi-paradigmes spécifique. Cette architecture qui supporte l‘intégration de différentes plates-formes de simulation, est basée sur un médiateur, constituant un système multi-agents, et assurant l‘interaction entre les simulateurs. Les agents de ce médiateur sont chargés de collecter les informations permettant de produire les observables, maintenir la structure organisationnelle lorsque des entités organisationnelles (groupes) sont distribués sur différents simulateurs, l‘interopérabilité entre ces simulateurs, et enfin garantir la validité de la simulation d‘un point de vue temporel. Enfin, la mise en œuvre du cadre méthodologique et de l‘architecture logicielle proposés sont illustrées sur un cas industriel réaliste de chaîne logistique. La présentation des phases de conception est détaillée ainsi que la spécification et l‘implémentation du cas industriel au sein de l‘environnement de modélisation et de simulation proposé. / In the search for performance of supply chains, modeling and simulation of these chains, taking into account the organizational aspects are needed. In this perspective, firstly we propose a new methodology for modeling and simulation of supply chains oriented agents, taking into account explicitly the organizational aspects, both structural and dynamic as well as observable indicators in the modeling of these chains. This methodological framework is structured along two main levels of abstraction, conceptual and operational levels. For each level we have models that are proposed and described in details. Then, to simulate the simulation models of supply chains obtained by this methodological framework, we propose a multi-paradigm software architecture specific. This architecture supports the integration of different platforms simulation is based on a mediator, providing a multi-agent system, and ensuring the interaction between the simulators. The agents of this mediator is responsible for collecting required information to produce observables and maintaining the organizational structure while the organizational entities (groups) are distributed over different simulators and interoperability between these simulators, and finally ensuring the validity of the simulation for a temporal point of view. Finally, the implementation of the methodological framework and the proposed software architecture are shown in a realistic industrial case supply chain. The presentation of the design phase is detailed and the specification and implementation of industrial case in environmental modeling and simulation proposed.