Dans ce mémoire, nous proposons une méthodologie statistique permettant d’obtenir un estimateur de l’espérance de vie des clients en assurance. Les prédictions effectuées tiennent compte des caractéristiques individuelles des clients, notamment du fait qu’ils peuvent détenir différents types de produits d’assurance (automobile, résidentielle ou les deux). Trois approches sont comparées. La première approche est le modèle de Markov simple, qui suppose à la fois l’homogénéité et la stationnarité des probabilités de transition. L’autre modèle – qui a été implémenté par deux approches, soit une approche directe et une approche par simulations – tient compte de l’hétérogénéité des probabilités de transition, ce qui permet d’effectuer des prédictions qui évoluent avec les caractéristiques des individus dans le temps. Les probabilités de transition de ce modèle sont estimées par des régressions logistiques multinomiales. / In this master’s thesis, we develop a statistical method to estimate the lifetime expectancy of clients in the insurance domain. The forecasts are personnalized according to the clients’ own features, the most notable being the fact that they can have any combination of automobile and residential insurance products. Three approaches are compared. The first approach is the simple Markov model which assume homogeneity and stationnarity of the transition probabilities. The other model suggested – which is implemented both by direct computation and by simulation – allows for heterogeneity of the transition probabilities, thus providing forecasts which evolve in time along with the characteristics of the clients. The transitions probabilities are estimated using multinomial logistic regressions.

Nas últimas décadas inúmeros estudos foram produzidos acerca da influência do local de moradia sobre o bem-estar das pessoas, o chamado “efeito-bairro”. Este trabalho tem o objetivo de analisar os principais fatores que influenciam os jovens gaúchos de 15 a 24 anos a permanecerem apenas estudando, estudando e trabalhando, só trabalhando ou não estudando e nem trabalhando. Serão analisados fatores ligados ao local de moradia, características individuais dos jovens, tais como raça, sexo e idade, e familiares, tais como educação dos pais e renda familiar per capta e como cada uma dessas variáveis exerce influência sobre as escolhas dos jovens das aglomerações urbanas do Rio Grande do Sul. Para tanto, serão utilizados os microdados amostrais dos Censos Demográficos de 2000 e 2010 do IBGE, através dos quais serão construídas as variáveis dependente e independentes que constituirão a análise estatística via modelos de regressão logística multinomial. Os resultados das influências dos fatores ligados ao local de moradia apontaram que residir longe do centro, em 2000, dificultava o ingresso no mercado de trabalho para o jovem de Porto Alegre, enquanto em 2010 aumenta suas chances de estudar e de trabalhar e quanto mais elevado é o nível socioeconômico da vizinhança do jovem, maiores são suas chances de apenas estudar e menores suas chances de só trabalhar. O estudo também constatou que o jovem ser filho ou enteado do chefe domiciliar aumenta significativamente suas chances de estudar e reduz bastante suas chances de dedicarem-se exclusivamente ao trabalho; quanto mais elevada a idade do jovem, maiores suas chances de trabalhar e menores de só estudar, consequência da transição natural do jovem da escola para o mercado de trabalho; o jovem ser do sexo masculino aumenta suas chances de trabalhar; quanto mais elevada a renda domiciliar per capita do jovem, menores são suas chances de não estudar nem trabalhar; quanto mais anos de estudo o chefe domiciliar possuir, maiores as chances do jovem estudar; quanto mais crianças no domicílio do jovem, maiores são suas chances de não trabalhar nem estudar e quanto mais elevado o grupo de categoria sócio-ocupacional do chefe domiciliar, maiores são as chances do jovem estudar. / In recent decades numerous studies have been made about the influence of the place of residence on the well-being of people, the so-called "neighborhood effect." This work aims to analyze the main factors influencing the gauchos youth 15 to 24 years to stay just studying, studying and working, just working or no studying and neither working. We will analyze factors related to place of residence, individual characteristics of young people, such as race, gender and age, and family, such as parental education and family income per capita and how each of these variables influences the choices of young agglomerations urban of Rio Grande do Sul. Therefore, the sample microdata from Demographic Censuses of 2000 and 2010 IBGE will be used, through which the dependent and independent variables that constitute the statistical analysis via multinomial logistic regression models will be built. The results of the influence of factors related to place of residence indicated that reside far from the center, in 2000, made it difficult to enter the labor market for young Porto Alegre, while in 2010 increases your chances of study and work and the higher It is the socioeconomic status of the neighborhood of the young, the greater your chances of just studying and lower your chances of just work. The study also found that young to be a child or stepchild of the household head significantly increases your chances of study and greatly reduces your chances to devote themselves exclusively to the work; the higher the age of the young, the greater your chances of work and under only studying result of the natural transition of the young from school to the labor market; the young being male increases your chances of working; the higher the household income per capita of the young, the lower your chances of not study or work; the more years of schooling the household head has, the more likely the young study; the more children in the household of the young, the greater your chances of not working or studying and the higher the socio-occupational category group head home, the greater the chances of the young study.

Made available in DSpace on 2015-07-22T20:50:38Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 0 Previous issue date: 2009-03-25 / Por ser uma prática criminosa, o aborto provocado acaba sendo realizado clandestinamente tornando-se um grave problema de Saúde Pública. O objetivo deste estudo foi o de estimar a prevalência de mulheres em idade fértil com histórico de aborto. O estudo é transversal, resultante de uma amostra aleatória de mulheres 15 a 49 anos-, residentes no subdistrito da Vila Mariana, 2006. Os dados foram coletados mediante aplicação de questionários. Foi considerada como variável dependente classificação da mulher quanto ao aborto: sem aborto, aborto espontâneo e aborto provocado; e independentes: idade, defasagem do número ideal de filhos, atividade remunerada, escolaridade, estado civil, uso de contraceptivos e opinião sobre o aborto provocado. Para análises foram utilizados testes de qui-quadrado e modelos de regressão logística multinomial policotômica. Dentre o total de mulheres entrevistadas (n=1121), 84,4% (n=946) são de mulheres sem histórico de aborto; 11,2% (n=126) são de mulheres com histórico de aborto espontâneo e, 4,4% (n=49) são de mulheres com histórico de aborto provocado. A razão de chances de ter realizado aborto provocado sobre a sem aborto é 6,33 vezes maior (p0,001) entre mulheres que aceitam esta prática; 4,58 vezes maior (p=0,002) entre as mulheres que possuem menos de 4 anos de estudo e ainda, as chances da mulher declarar um aborto provocado comparado às sem aborto é 7% maior a cada ano em que a mulher envelhece. Dentre as 1121 mulheres, 49,5% (n=555) declararam ter tido alguma gravidez. Para que engravidaram a prevalência de mulheres com aborto espontâneo foi de 22,7% (n=126) de aborto provocado 8,85 (n=49). A razão de chances de ter realizado aborto provocado sobre a sem aborto é 28,34 vezes maior (p0,001) entre as que não possuem nenhum filho nascido vivo; 6,42 vezes maior (p0,001) entre as que aceitam esta prática; 4,96 vezes maior (p=0,002) entre as que possuem menos de 4 anos de estudo; e as chances de declarar um aborto provocado comparado as sem aborto é 8% maior a cada ano a mais de vida. Por outra parte, este estudo revela ainda que entre o total de mulheres a razão de chances de ter tido aborto espontâneo sobre a sem aborto é 0,34 (p0,001) entre as mulheres que não possuem nenhum filho nascido vivo; e, as chances da mulher declarar um aborto espontâneo comparado às sem aborto é 4% maior a cada ano de idade da mulher. O comportamento reprodutivo das mulheres deste estudo é equiparável ao das residentes em países desenvolvidos. Ao ter acesso a métodos contraceptivos considerados eficazes o aborto provocado legalizado, não seria utilizado de forma irresponsável. / Induced abortions are illegal in Brazil, leading many women to seek out clandestine clinics and practitioners, resulting in a serious public health problem. The purpose of this study was to estimate the number of women in the general population of fertile age with a history of abortion. This is a retrospective transversal study, based on a random sample of women – 15 to 49 years old –, residing at the Vila Mariana neighborhood of São Paulo in 2006. Data was collected through questionnaires. As the dependent variable we used different abortion categories, reflecting different types of experiences with abortion, which included: no abortion, spontaneous abortion and induced abortion. As independent variables we used: age, the difference between number of children and ideal number of children, employment and marital status, level of education, use of contraceptives, and personal opinion about induced abortion. Analyses were carried out using chi-square tests and polytomous multinomial logistic regressions. Furthermore, 84,4% (n=946) had no history of abortion; 11,2% (n=126) indicated having had a spontaneous abortion; and 4.4% (n=49) indicated having had an induced abortion. We found that it is 6,33 times more likely (p0,001) to have had an induced abortion versus no abortion among women who are pro-choice; 4,58 times more likely (p=0,002) among women who have less than 4 years of formal education; and the chances of a woman admitting an induced abortion compared to no abortion are 7% higher for each additional year of age. We surveyed a total of 1121 women, among which 49.5% (n=555) indicated that they had been pregnant at least once. Among the latter, 22,7% (n=126) indicated having at least one spontaneous abortion and 8,85% (n=49) indicated having at least one induced abortion. Our results show that among women with no live birth pregnancies it is 28,34 times more likely that they have undergone induced abortion versus no abortion (p0,005); among those that are pro-choice it is 6,42 times more likely (p0,001); among those who have less than 4 years of formal education it is 4,96 times more likely (p=0,002); and the chances of admitting to an induced abortion versus no abortion increases by 8% higher for each additional year of age. Finally, this study reveals that women with no live births are 0,34 more likely (p0,001) to have had an spontaneous abortion versus no abortion; and the chances of a woman admitting spontaneous abortion compared to no abortion is 4% higher for each additional year of age. In conclusion, the reproductive behavior of women in this study is comparable to the behavior of women who live in developed countries. With broad access to effective contraceptive methods, legalized induced abortion would not be carried out irresponsibly. / TEDE

Made available in DSpace on 2015-05-08T14:53:40Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 arquivototal.pdf: 767214 bytes, checksum: 35fd7bdf641e061fc79cec5e4e2752b7 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2009-11-17 / Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior / On analysis performed at experimental ergonomics, still is rare the use of Ordinal and Nominal Multinomial Logistic Regression, having been employed their simplification, Binary Logistic Regression, even on cases where Dependent Variable (DV) have more of two categories. To make the DV becomes binary leads to damages at data analysis, caused due lose of information by category agglutination and ordination disrespect. An analysis using Ordinal Multinomial Logistic Regression was performed on a data set containing a categorical DV, the Work Ability Index (WAI) of Nurses working on João Pessoa city Public Hospital Intensive Care Unit (ICU), and as Independent Variable (ID) thermal comfort variables, environmental variables, personal variables, and work organization variables. Through this analysis, was found out risk factors that lead to increase the probability of the WAI falls on an inferior category. The DV and used data set features allows to conclude that the Ordinal Multinomial Logistic Regression use made possible a more accurate result and analysis. / Nas análises realizadas em ergonomia experimental, ainda é raro o uso da regressão logística multinomial nominal e ordinal, tendo sido empregada frequentemente a simplificação dessas ferramentas, a regressão logística binária, mesmo onde a Variável Dependente possui mais de duas categorias. A binarização da Variável Dependente leva a prejuízos na análise de dados, pela perda de informação por aglutinação de categorias e desconsideração de ordenação entre as mesmas. Uma análise de dados usando a regressão logística multinomial ordinal foi realizada em um conjunto de dados contendo uma variável categórica, o Índice de Capacidade para o Trabalho (ICT) de enfermeiros de Unidade de Terapia Intensiva (UTI s) de hospitais públicos na cidade de João Pessoa PB como variável dependente e variáveis termo-ambientais pessoais, e de organização do trabalho como variáveis independentes. Através desta análise, chegou a fatores de risco que levam ao aumento da probabilidade de queda do ICT dos profissionais envolvidos na pesquisa. Características inerentes a VD bem como ao conjunto de dados utilizado levam a conclusão que o uso da Regressão Logística Multinomial Ordinal tornou possível uma análise mais precisa com resultados mais acurados.

Nas últimas décadas inúmeros estudos foram produzidos acerca da influência do local de moradia sobre o bem-estar das pessoas, o chamado “efeito-bairro”. Este trabalho tem o objetivo de analisar os principais fatores que influenciam os jovens gaúchos de 15 a 24 anos a permanecerem apenas estudando, estudando e trabalhando, só trabalhando ou não estudando e nem trabalhando. Serão analisados fatores ligados ao local de moradia, características individuais dos jovens, tais como raça, sexo e idade, e familiares, tais como educação dos pais e renda familiar per capta e como cada uma dessas variáveis exerce influência sobre as escolhas dos jovens das aglomerações urbanas do Rio Grande do Sul. Para tanto, serão utilizados os microdados amostrais dos Censos Demográficos de 2000 e 2010 do IBGE, através dos quais serão construídas as variáveis dependente e independentes que constituirão a análise estatística via modelos de regressão logística multinomial. Os resultados das influências dos fatores ligados ao local de moradia apontaram que residir longe do centro, em 2000, dificultava o ingresso no mercado de trabalho para o jovem de Porto Alegre, enquanto em 2010 aumenta suas chances de estudar e de trabalhar e quanto mais elevado é o nível socioeconômico da vizinhança do jovem, maiores são suas chances de apenas estudar e menores suas chances de só trabalhar. O estudo também constatou que o jovem ser filho ou enteado do chefe domiciliar aumenta significativamente suas chances de estudar e reduz bastante suas chances de dedicarem-se exclusivamente ao trabalho; quanto mais elevada a idade do jovem, maiores suas chances de trabalhar e menores de só estudar, consequência da transição natural do jovem da escola para o mercado de trabalho; o jovem ser do sexo masculino aumenta suas chances de trabalhar; quanto mais elevada a renda domiciliar per capita do jovem, menores são suas chances de não estudar nem trabalhar; quanto mais anos de estudo o chefe domiciliar possuir, maiores as chances do jovem estudar; quanto mais crianças no domicílio do jovem, maiores são suas chances de não trabalhar nem estudar e quanto mais elevado o grupo de categoria sócio-ocupacional do chefe domiciliar, maiores são as chances do jovem estudar. / In recent decades numerous studies have been made about the influence of the place of residence on the well-being of people, the so-called "neighborhood effect." This work aims to analyze the main factors influencing the gauchos youth 15 to 24 years to stay just studying, studying and working, just working or no studying and neither working. We will analyze factors related to place of residence, individual characteristics of young people, such as race, gender and age, and family, such as parental education and family income per capita and how each of these variables influences the choices of young agglomerations urban of Rio Grande do Sul. Therefore, the sample microdata from Demographic Censuses of 2000 and 2010 IBGE will be used, through which the dependent and independent variables that constitute the statistical analysis via multinomial logistic regression models will be built. The results of the influence of factors related to place of residence indicated that reside far from the center, in 2000, made it difficult to enter the labor market for young Porto Alegre, while in 2010 increases your chances of study and work and the higher It is the socioeconomic status of the neighborhood of the young, the greater your chances of just studying and lower your chances of just work. The study also found that young to be a child or stepchild of the household head significantly increases your chances of study and greatly reduces your chances to devote themselves exclusively to the work; the higher the age of the young, the greater your chances of work and under only studying result of the natural transition of the young from school to the labor market; the young being male increases your chances of working; the higher the household income per capita of the young, the lower your chances of not study or work; the more years of schooling the household head has, the more likely the young study; the more children in the household of the young, the greater your chances of not working or studying and the higher the socio-occupational category group head home, the greater the chances of the young study.

Nas últimas décadas inúmeros estudos foram produzidos acerca da influência do local de moradia sobre o bem-estar das pessoas, o chamado “efeito-bairro”. Este trabalho tem o objetivo de analisar os principais fatores que influenciam os jovens gaúchos de 15 a 24 anos a permanecerem apenas estudando, estudando e trabalhando, só trabalhando ou não estudando e nem trabalhando. Serão analisados fatores ligados ao local de moradia, características individuais dos jovens, tais como raça, sexo e idade, e familiares, tais como educação dos pais e renda familiar per capta e como cada uma dessas variáveis exerce influência sobre as escolhas dos jovens das aglomerações urbanas do Rio Grande do Sul. Para tanto, serão utilizados os microdados amostrais dos Censos Demográficos de 2000 e 2010 do IBGE, através dos quais serão construídas as variáveis dependente e independentes que constituirão a análise estatística via modelos de regressão logística multinomial. Os resultados das influências dos fatores ligados ao local de moradia apontaram que residir longe do centro, em 2000, dificultava o ingresso no mercado de trabalho para o jovem de Porto Alegre, enquanto em 2010 aumenta suas chances de estudar e de trabalhar e quanto mais elevado é o nível socioeconômico da vizinhança do jovem, maiores são suas chances de apenas estudar e menores suas chances de só trabalhar. O estudo também constatou que o jovem ser filho ou enteado do chefe domiciliar aumenta significativamente suas chances de estudar e reduz bastante suas chances de dedicarem-se exclusivamente ao trabalho; quanto mais elevada a idade do jovem, maiores suas chances de trabalhar e menores de só estudar, consequência da transição natural do jovem da escola para o mercado de trabalho; o jovem ser do sexo masculino aumenta suas chances de trabalhar; quanto mais elevada a renda domiciliar per capita do jovem, menores são suas chances de não estudar nem trabalhar; quanto mais anos de estudo o chefe domiciliar possuir, maiores as chances do jovem estudar; quanto mais crianças no domicílio do jovem, maiores são suas chances de não trabalhar nem estudar e quanto mais elevado o grupo de categoria sócio-ocupacional do chefe domiciliar, maiores são as chances do jovem estudar. / In recent decades numerous studies have been made about the influence of the place of residence on the well-being of people, the so-called "neighborhood effect." This work aims to analyze the main factors influencing the gauchos youth 15 to 24 years to stay just studying, studying and working, just working or no studying and neither working. We will analyze factors related to place of residence, individual characteristics of young people, such as race, gender and age, and family, such as parental education and family income per capita and how each of these variables influences the choices of young agglomerations urban of Rio Grande do Sul. Therefore, the sample microdata from Demographic Censuses of 2000 and 2010 IBGE will be used, through which the dependent and independent variables that constitute the statistical analysis via multinomial logistic regression models will be built. The results of the influence of factors related to place of residence indicated that reside far from the center, in 2000, made it difficult to enter the labor market for young Porto Alegre, while in 2010 increases your chances of study and work and the higher It is the socioeconomic status of the neighborhood of the young, the greater your chances of just studying and lower your chances of just work. The study also found that young to be a child or stepchild of the household head significantly increases your chances of study and greatly reduces your chances to devote themselves exclusively to the work; the higher the age of the young, the greater your chances of work and under only studying result of the natural transition of the young from school to the labor market; the young being male increases your chances of working; the higher the household income per capita of the young, the lower your chances of not study or work; the more years of schooling the household head has, the more likely the young study; the more children in the household of the young, the greater your chances of not working or studying and the higher the socio-occupational category group head home, the greater the chances of the young study.

L'objectif de la recherche est de questionner le comportement des firmes multinationales issues de pays émergent (FMNE) lors de leur première acquisition majoritaire à l'international. En effet, devenue un phénomène d'ampleur mondial, l'internationalisation de ces firmes du Sud représente une nouveauté, une menace, mais également une opportunité dans le paysage économique mondial. Notre étude teste empiriquement les théories classiques du management international pensées pour les firmes du Nord (FMN) selon des méthodes quantitatives appliquées à un échantillon unique de 504 FMNE issues de la base de données SDC Platinum. Les résultats montrent qu'il existe trois catégories de FMNE influencées par les attributs du pays cibles, leur expérience d'acquisition internationale et leur réseau d'affaires étendu. En revanche, ces mêmes entreprises ne sont influencées ni par les attributs de leur pays domestique ni par leur expérience d'acquisition domestique ni par leur réseau d'affaires proche. Ces résultats éclairent ainsi les connaissances du champ des FMNE en confirmant certaines études dans la littérature tout en en contredisant d'autres. Ce travail de recherche précise donc un ensemble de connaissances scientifiques relatives au phénomène des FMNE et cristallise les réponses aux questionnements du champ à travers l'étude empirique des acquisitions majoritaires à l'international. / The research aims to investigate the emerging multinationals' (EMNE) behaviour through their first international acquisition. Indeed, because of the scope and scale of this international phenomenon, the internationalization of these firms portrayed a novelty, a threat, and an opportunity in the worldwide landscape as well. Our study tests empirically the international management theories basically thought for firms from industrialized economies (MNE) according to quantitative methodologies applied on a unique sample of 504 EMNE from SDC platinum database. The results find three EMNE groups influenced by target-country characteristics, international acquisition experience and extensive network. However, these same firms are not influenced by domestic-country characteristics, their domestic acquisition experience and their close network. These results highlight the field both in corroborate some studies and refute others. This research finally clarifies a set of scientific knowledge related to the EMNE phenomenon through an empirical study of the international acquisitions.

Active learning methodologies (ALM) are associated with student success, but little research on this topic has been pursued at the community college level. At a local community college, students in science, technology, engineering, and math (STEM) courses exhibited lower than average grades. The purpose of this study was to examine whether the use of ALM predicted STEM course grades while controlling for academic discipline, course level, and class size. The theoretical framework was Vygotsky's social constructivism. Descriptive statistics and multinomial logistic regression were performed on data collected through an anonymous survey of 74 instructors of 272 courses during the 2016 fall semester. Results indicated that students were more likely to achieve passing grades when instructors employed in-class, highly structured activities, and writing-based ALM, and were less likely to achieve passing grades when instructors employed project-based or online ALM. The odds ratios indicated strong positive effects (greater likelihoods of receiving As, Bs, or Cs in comparison to the grade of F) for writing-based ALM (39.1-43.3%, 95% CI [10.7-80.3%]), highly structured activities (16.4-22.2%, 95% CI [1.8-33.7%]), and in-class ALM (5.0-9.0%, 95% CI [0.6-13.8%]). Project-based and online ALM showed negative effects (lower likelihoods of receiving As, Bs, or Cs in comparison to the grade of F) with odds ratios of 15.7-20.9%, 95% CI [9.7-30.6%] and 16.1-20.4%, 95% CI [5.9-25.2%] respectively. A white paper was developed with recommendations for faculty development, computer skills assessment and training, and active research on writing-based ALM. Improving student grades and STEM course completion rates could lead to higher graduation rates and lower college costs for at-risk students by reducing course repetition and time to degree completion.

This empirical exploratory study quantitatively analyzed content similarity indices (potential plagiarism) from a corpus consisting of 360 dissertations and 360 published articles. The population was defined using the filtering search criteria human resource development, training and development, organizational development, career development, or HRD. This study described in detail the process of collecting content similarity analysis (CSA) metadata using Turnitin software (www.turnitin.com). This researcher conducted robust descriptive statistics, a Wilcoxon signed-rank statistic between the similarity indices before and after false positives were excluded, and a multinomial logistic regression analysis to predict levels of plagiarism for the dissertations and the published articles. The corpus of dissertations had an adjusted rate of document similarity (potential plagiarism) of M = 9%, (SD = 6%) with 88.1% of the dissertations in the low level of plagiarism, 9.7% in the high and 2.2% in the excessive group. The corpus of published articles had an adjusted rate of document similarity (potential plagiarism) of M = 11%, (SD = 10%) with 79.2% of the published articles in the low level of plagiarism, 12.8% in the high and 8.1% in the excessive group. Most of the difference between the dissertations and published articles were attributed to plagiarism-of-self issues which were absent in the dissertations. Statistics were also conducted which returned a statistically significant justification for employing the investigative process of removing false positives, thereby adjusting the Turnitin results. This study also found two independent variables (reference and word counts) that predicted dissertation membership in the high (.15-.24) and excessive level (.25-1.00) of plagiarism and published article membership in the excessive level (.25-1.00) of plagiarism. I used multinomial logistic regression to establish the optimal prediction model. The multinomial logistic regression results for the dissertations returned a Nagelkerke pseudo R2 of .169 and for the published articles a Nagelkerke pseudo R2 .095.

No description available.