Humans repeatedly commit the so called “conjunction fallacy”, erroneously judging the probability of two events occurring together as higher than the probability of one of the events. Certain hints have been shown to mitigate this tendency. The present thesis investigated the relations between three psychological factors and performance on conjunction tasks after reading such a hint. The factors represent the understanding of probability and statistics (statistical numeracy), the ability to resist intuitive but incorrect conclusions (cognitive reflection), and the willingness to engage in, and enjoyment of, analytical thinking (need-for-cognition). Participants (n = 50) answered 30 short conjunction tasks and three psychological scales. A bimodal response distribution motivated dichotomization of performance scores. Need-for-cognition was significantly, positively correlated with performance, while numeracy and cognitive reflection were not. The results suggest that the willingness to engage in, and enjoyment of, analytical thinking plays an important role for the capacity to avoid the conjunction fallacy after taking a hint. The hint further seems to neutralize differences in performance otherwise predicted by statistical numeracy and cognitive reflection. / Människor begår ofta det så kallade ”konjuktionsfelslutet”, genom att felaktigt bedöma sannolikheten för sammanträffandet av två händelser som större än sannolikheten för en av händelserna. Vissa typer av ledtrådar har visat sig mildra denna tendens. Denna uppsats undersökte relationerna mellan tre psykologiska faktorer och prestation på konjunktionsuppgifter efter att ha läst en sådan ledtråd. Faktorerna motsvarade förståelsen för sannolikhet och statistik (statistisk räknefärdighet, eng., statistical numeracy), förmågan att motstå intuitiva men felaktiga slutsatser, (kognitiv reflektion, eng., cognitive reflection), samt viljan och lusten till analytiskt tänkande (behov-av-tänkande, eng., need-for-cognition). Deltagare (n = 50) besvarade 30 korta konjunktionsuppgifter och tre psykologiska mätskalor. En bimodal svarsfördelning motiverade dikotomisering av resultaten. Behov-av-tänkande var signifikant, positivt korrelerat med prestation, vilket varken räknefärdighet eller kognitiv reflektion var. Resultaten tyder på att viljan och lusten till analytiskt tänkande spelar en viktig roll i förmågan att undvika konjunktionsfelslutet efter att ha fått en ledtråd. Ledtråden verkar också neutralisera skillnader i prestation som annars uppstår på grund av räknefärdighet och kognitiv reflektion.

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Previous research has shown that Need for Cognition (NFC), the individual tendency to engage in and enjoy cognitive endeavors, contributes to academic performance. Most studies on NFC and related constructs have thereby focused on grades to capture tertiary academic success. This study aimed at a more comprehensive approach on NFC’s meaning to success in university. We examined not only performance but also rather affective indicators of success. The current sample consisted of 396 students of different subjects with a mean age of 24 years (139 male). All participants took part in an online survey that assessed NFC together with school performance and further personality variables via self-report. Success in university was comprehensively operationalized including performance, satisfaction with one’s studies, and thoughts about quitting/changing one’s major as indicators. The value of NFC in predicting tertiary academic success was examined with correlation analyses and path analysis. NFC significantly correlated with all success variables with the highest correlation for study satisfaction. Path analysis confirmed the importance of NFC for study satisfaction showing that NFC had a significant direct effect on study satisfaction and via this variable also a significant indirect effect on termination thoughts. This study clearly indicates that NFC broadly contributes to the mastery of academic requirements and that it is worthwhile to intensify research on NFC in the context of tertiary education.

通路商在「供應鏈」的角色，除了必須發揮原廠與客戶端中間橋樑之基本功能以外，尚須面對外部競爭及內部營運績效提昇之考驗。在面臨內外在環境的衝擊及市場的激烈競爭，通路商如何發展其競爭策略來厚植其競爭力，謀求生存利基，是一值得探討的問題。 本研究主要目的是在探討台灣半導體通路商之發展策略，透過對於國內有效問卷之180家通路商作分析，經有系統的收集與整理資料後，利用隨機效果的橫斷時間序列資料迴歸模式分析，結果顯示： 一、組織績效正差會增加通路商對於新產品與新客戶開發的發展策略。 二、組織績效負差會增加通路商對於新產品開發的發展策略，但減少新客戶開發。。 三、領導者的認知度需求度對於新產品與新客戶開發的發展策略有負向影響。 四、領導者的冒險傾向對於新產品與新客戶開發的發展策略有正向影響。 五、領導者的認知需求度對於績效差與新產品開發有調節效果。 六、領導者的冒險傾向對於績效差與新產品開發有調節效果。 / The role of distributor, basically, not only supply chain management but also “bridge” between suppliers and customers, Meanwhile, they encounter external competition as well as challenge of internal performance improvement. Beset by difficulties both at home and abroad as well as fierce competition, distributors need to modify their competition strategies in order to enhance their competitiveness and chip in the niche category they can rely on. It is worthwhile to understand how the semiconductor distributors in Taiwan keep their competitive capability under the challengeable situations. The aim of this study is to investigate the development strategy of Taiwanese small and medium distributors who exclusively manage semiconductor products. After the collection of 180 leader-company dyadic data, this study utilized the random-effects panel regression models to examine the hypotheses. The results showed： 1. The positive difference between organizational performance and past performance increased distributors’ development strategies of new product and new customer exploration. 2. The negative difference between organizational performance and past performance increased distributors’ development strategies of new product exploration but decrease new customer exploration. 3. Top leaders’ need for cognition had negative effect on both of new product and new customer exploration of development strategy. 4. Top leaders’ risk-taking propensity had positive effect on both of new product and new customer exploration of development strategy. 5. The need for cognition of a top leader had moderating effects on the relationships between performance differences and new product development. 6. The risk-taking propensity of a top leader had moderating effects on the relationships between performance differences and new product development.

Word of mouth (WOM) communication has been a form of additional information for consumers wishing to make a purchase decision where there was uncertainty, lack of knowledge or just a general desire for more information. The increased access and use of social media as well as anonymous opportunities for consumers to provide their reviews on products or services is changing how WOM is used and sought. There is little research on the impact and use of WOM with respect to consumer decision making in a recreation and leisure context. Much research has been focussed on retail experiences and more tangible outcomes. The purpose of this study was to explore the process consumers undertake to seek out, listen and engage in WOM communication when making service purchase decisions. This study took place in a municipality in York Region that offered swimming lessons to the public. Participants were chosen using convenience sampling methodology. 500 surveys were distributed with 301 returned surveys completed to some degree. Study participants were recruited from observers watching a swim class offered by a municipal recreation provider. The survey instrument asked participants to describe themselves in terms of their experience level with municipal recreation programs. It also included three scales relating to susceptibility to influence, self confidence and need for cognition. Participants were exposed to one of five scenarios – one control message contained no treatment information and four scenarios with treatment messages relating to self-confidence and perceived risk. Treatment group members received information suggesting either high and low levels of perceived risk with purchase and high and low levels of self-confidence with knowledge (regarding the purchase decision). Respondents in this study possessed a very high level of self confidence in their program selections; they knew where to find the information and also how to explore program options. Overall this seemed a very well informed and confident group. Results suggest that susceptibility to influence (t = 5.889, p = .000) and self confidence (t = -2.174, p = .037) influenced their search for WOM communication. Need for cognition did not influence the likelihood they would seek WOM communication (t = -1.098, p = .280). Together all three variables explained 50% of the variance (adjusted R2 = .505) in the dependent variable (likelihood they would seek out WOM to make the purchase). These results indicate that participants were more likely to seek WOM when they were susceptible to influence and when their self confidence levels were low. Results also suggest that consumers were open to on line sources of word of mouth communication. More than that, study participants were generally willing to trust online reviews from people who were not necessarily known to them. As a result, online reviews could greatly influence the program registration numbers. A key question for future research could focus on the role shared experience plays in the evolution of trust between strangers. Many of these respondents would trust the advice of others simply because they reported having shared experience. How far does this trust go? How much risk must be present before they hesitate to take advice from unknown individuals? What are the characteristics or traits that consumers look for when assessing the validity of the reviews. Word of mouth seems a very pervasive and resilient concept. This may be particularly important in situations characterized by risk. Additional research could further explore the concept of word of finger and its influence on the traditional concept of WOM communication.

Word of mouth (WOM) communication has been a form of additional information for consumers wishing to make a purchase decision where there was uncertainty, lack of knowledge or just a general desire for more information. The increased access and use of social media as well as anonymous opportunities for consumers to provide their reviews on products or services is changing how WOM is used and sought. There is little research on the impact and use of WOM with respect to consumer decision making in a recreation and leisure context. Much research has been focussed on retail experiences and more tangible outcomes. The purpose of this study was to explore the process consumers undertake to seek out, listen and engage in WOM communication when making service purchase decisions. This study took place in a municipality in York Region that offered swimming lessons to the public. Participants were chosen using convenience sampling methodology. 500 surveys were distributed with 301 returned surveys completed to some degree. Study participants were recruited from observers watching a swim class offered by a municipal recreation provider. The survey instrument asked participants to describe themselves in terms of their experience level with municipal recreation programs. It also included three scales relating to susceptibility to influence, self confidence and need for cognition. Participants were exposed to one of five scenarios – one control message contained no treatment information and four scenarios with treatment messages relating to self-confidence and perceived risk. Treatment group members received information suggesting either high and low levels of perceived risk with purchase and high and low levels of self-confidence with knowledge (regarding the purchase decision). Respondents in this study possessed a very high level of self confidence in their program selections; they knew where to find the information and also how to explore program options. Overall this seemed a very well informed and confident group. Results suggest that susceptibility to influence (t = 5.889, p = .000) and self confidence (t = -2.174, p = .037) influenced their search for WOM communication. Need for cognition did not influence the likelihood they would seek WOM communication (t = -1.098, p = .280). Together all three variables explained 50% of the variance (adjusted R2 = .505) in the dependent variable (likelihood they would seek out WOM to make the purchase). These results indicate that participants were more likely to seek WOM when they were susceptible to influence and when their self confidence levels were low. Results also suggest that consumers were open to on line sources of word of mouth communication. More than that, study participants were generally willing to trust online reviews from people who were not necessarily known to them. As a result, online reviews could greatly influence the program registration numbers. A key question for future research could focus on the role shared experience plays in the evolution of trust between strangers. Many of these respondents would trust the advice of others simply because they reported having shared experience. How far does this trust go? How much risk must be present before they hesitate to take advice from unknown individuals? What are the characteristics or traits that consumers look for when assessing the validity of the reviews. Word of mouth seems a very pervasive and resilient concept. This may be particularly important in situations characterized by risk. Additional research could further explore the concept of word of finger and its influence on the traditional concept of WOM communication.

在各式各樣的銷售技巧中，誇張廠商建議價格是一種常見的手法，廠商漫天喊價誇大原始售價，無非是希望能讓消費覺得實際售價低廉且商品值得購買。但在廠商使用這樣的策略時，有些人會察覺到廠商操弄的意圖進而對廠商、商品產生負面的感覺。本研究認為消費者的認知需求程度是參考價格產生效果的重要調節變項，因此，本研究發展兩階段的實驗來探討消費者認知需求高低對其處理價格資訊的影響。研究方式與結果簡述如下： 在第一個階段中研究的是誇張的行銷訊息（誇張的廠商售價）對於認知需求程度不同的消費者的效果差異，以及廠商售價對於消費者的商品態度與購買意願的影響。研究結果發現，認知需求低者較易被廠商宣稱的誇張價格影響其對商品的推估價格，進而對商品產生較佳的態度與購買意願。 在第二個階段中，本研究設計讓已經受到廠商訂價影響的消費者接觸實際售價，探討消費者的認知需求程度對於其操弄意圖推論程度的影響及消費者操弄意圖推論程度對於其最終購買意願與商品態度產生的效果。結果發現，認知需求高的消費者其操弄意圖推論程度亦高，且消費者的操弄意圖推論程度愈高；對於消費者商品態度與購買意願負面的影響也愈大。 / One main concern regarding the use of reference prices in advertisements relates to the possibility of perceived deception due to consumers' reaction towards exaggerated or implausible price claims. This paper examines the moderating roles of an individual level variable-need for cognition (NFC), in influencing consumers’ evaluation of the reference prices in a two-stage experiment. The results support the hypothesized effects of need for cognition and demonstrate that, in the first stage, consumers with a high need for cognition assimilate a smaller portion of the external reference points (ERPs) into their existing internal reference point (IRPs). In addition, for consumers with a low need for cognition, the increasing level of reference price results in positive effects on value perception, brand attitudes and purchase intention. In the second stage, I introduced inferences of manipulative intent (IMI) as a dependant variable. The results suggest that for consumers with a high need for cognition, the greater the discrepancy between their estimated price and real price, the higher level of perceived manipulative intent of advertisers. This leads to negative attitudes toward the advertiser and results in negative effects on brand attitudes and purchase intention. Implications for research and practitioners are discussed.

本研究欲探討以個人認知需求為調節變項，考量框架效應和個人與工作適配度，是否對工作預期和求職吸引力產生影響。先前Buda和Charnov (2003)的研究僅闡釋低認知需求較易受框架效應影響，而本研究則欲進一步瞭解，是否高認知需求者在評估求職吸引力時，受個人與工作適配度影響較大。本研究採2x2 x2受試者間之實驗設計，所操弄獨變項為：框架效應（正負相框架訊息）。依變項為「求職吸引力」，「認知需求」為調節變項。 本研究之受試者為204位大學生，研究結果顯示個人與工作適配度與求職吸引力有正相關，當個人與工作適配度愈高，求職吸引力愈高。當應徵者為高認知需求者，個人與工作適配度與求職吸引力間的關係高於應徵者為低認知需求者。研究者分別就結果加以討論，提出可能的解釋，並檢討本研究之限制與貢獻。