Le premier chapitre consiste en une brève revue de littérature dont les éléments sont repris dans les différentes introductions des études empiriques proposées dans la suite de la thèse. L'objet de cet état des lieux est de fixer le cadre général des analyses macro-économétriques opérées dans la thèse. Ce cadre nous permet d'une part, d'envisager une adéquate intégration des anticipations des agents économiques dans le raisonnement ayant mené aux modèles keynésiens actuels et d'autre part, d'effectuer des estimations des principales versions de la courbe de Phillips introduites dans la littérature macro-économique post-seconde guerre mondiale. Dans cette optique, la thèse est constituée de trois études empiriques. Dans la première de ces études, nous nous plaçons au sein d'un cadre uni-varié et tentons de discriminer entre plusieurs spécifications, proposant différentes caractérisations économétriques de la dynamique du taux d'inflation U.S. Essentiellement, trois types de spécifications, théoriquement associés à trois évolutions possibles du taux d'inflation espéré (anticipé), sont mis à l'épreuve. Les résultats de cette première étude montrent que la dynamique du taux d'inflation peut être pertinemment décrite à l'aide d'un modèle à changements de (trois) régimes markoviens dans les dérives (Intercepts) d'un processus autorégressif (d'ordre deux), soit le modèle MSI(3)-AR(2). La deuxième étude s'opère dans le cadre multi-varié d'une Nouvelle Courbe de Phillips Keynésienne à Inflation tendancielle Positive (NKPC-PI). Au sein de ce cadre, la relation d'arbitrage Inflation/Activité réelle est estimée suivant une procédure en deux étapes. Dans la première, nous identifions des régimes distincts du taux d'inflation U.S. à l'aide d'un modèle à changements de (trois) régimes markoviens dans les dérives d'un processus vectoriel autorégressif (d'ordre deux), soit le modèle MSI(3)-VAR(2). Dans la seconde étape, nous estimons les paramètres structurels de cette économie keynésienne afin d'extraire la courbe de Phillips résultante des changements de régimes initialement identifiés. Les résultats de cette deuxième étude nous amènent à conclure à une non-négligeable instabilité de la courbe de Phillips au cours de la période post-seconde guerre mondiale. La troisième étude se présente comme un prolongement et/ou un approfondissement des deux premières. Aussi, dans sa première partie, nous revenons sur les dynamiques tendancielles individuelles des quatre variables intervenant dans le cadre de modélisation NKPC-PI. Les résultats issus de ces premières estimations en contextes uni-variés montrent que seule la dynamique du taux d'inflation et, dans une moindre mesure, celle du coût marginal réel semble obéir à des changements de régimes. La spécification retenue pour l'inflation est celle de la première étude (MSI(3)-AR(2)), tandis que la dynamique du coût marginal réel pourrait être approchée à l'aide d'un modèle à changements de (deux) régimes dans les dérives d'un processus autorégressif (d'ordre deux), soit le modèle MSI(2)-AR(2). Les dynamiques du taux d'actualisation nominal et du taux de croissance de l'output (les deux autres variables du modèle NKPC-PI) semblent, quant à elles, être assez bien caractérisées par des spécifications linéaires autorégressives à deux retards (AR(2)). Sur la base de ces premiers résultats, nous estimons, dans la deuxième partie de l'étude, la nouvelle courbe de Phillips keynésienne en considérant que les processus générateurs des quatre séries du modèle peuvent répondre à de possibles intégrations fractionnelles. Les résultats de ces dernières estimations montrent que la prise en compte simultanée des changements de régimes et de la longue mémoire dans les dynamiques des variables du modèle apporte certains éclairages sur l'évolution du débat mené autour de la relation d'arbitrage post-seconde guerre mondiale. / This PhD thesis proposes, through her three articles, a macro-econometric framework of integrating, in the most adequate way to our sense, the expectations of the economic agents in the reasoning having led to current New-Keynesian models. Upon this specified frame of analysis, we evaluate the effectiveness of various versions of the Phillips curve introduced into the macroeconomic literature. The first study of this thesis takes place in a univariate context and we seek to determine an econometric model leading to best characterize the U.S inflation rate dynamic. In order to achieve this, three types of specifications, associated with three possible evolutions of the expected rate are considered. The first allows an overall instability of the trend or the expected inflation rate. The second considers an alternative specification in which the expected inflation rate is unstable in periodic segments of the sample. Finally, the last specification allows instability of a "mixed type" in which the trend inflation rate is assumed to be random or subject to a probability schema. The results of our study indicate that this last specification is the one that gives the most adequate characterization of the inflation rate dynamic. The inflation rate then appears generated by a second order autoregressive process with, on the one hand, unchanging lag coefficients and, on the other, an unconditional mean which switch between three global regimes of different frequencies of accession. Based on these first results, we extend the analysis in a multivariate framework. The main topics of the second paper are to challenge the rational nature of the agents expectations and the structural effectiveness of the behaviorally micro-based New Keynesian Phillips Curve with a Positive steady state Inflation (NKPC-PI). We then model the trade-off between the U.S inflation rate and a Unit Labor Cost-based measure of the real activity through Markov Switching - Vectorial AutoRegressive (MS-VAR) specifications. These specifications allow to adequately capturing the rationality in the agents expectations process as they underlie a finite number of expected inflation rate regimes, which highlight the agents adaptive beliefs on the achievements of these regimes. Moreover, the results confirm the structural stability of the NKPC-PI over the inflation rate regimes as its deep parameters seem to be unaffected by the regimes switching (Cogley & Sbordone (2005) and Groen & Mumtaz (2008)). In the third study, we extend the analysis of the Phillips curve trade-off. First, we look at determining econometrics models leading to characterize the dynamics of all the variables underlying the trade-off in univariate contexts. As a result, it appears that an adequate way to characterize the agents expectations regarding the dynamics of these variables is to consider a combination of some fixed levels (regimes) in the variables evolutions with an agents adaptive beliefs notion. Finally, based on the implied expectations values of the variables, we show that the Phillips curve seems to disappear when the impact of the expected inflation rate on its current value converges to its long-term value.

New keynesian Phillips curve (NKPC) has become a central model to study the relation between inflation and real economic activity, notably in the framework of optimal monetary policy design. However, some recent evidence suggests that empirical data are usually at odds with the underlying theory. The model due to its inherent structure represents a statistical challenge in its own right. Since Galí and Gertler (1999) published their seminal paper introducing estimation via GMM techniques, they have triggered a heated debate on its empirical relevance. Their approach has been heavily criticised by later authors, mainly on the grounds of questionable behaviour of GMM estimator in the NKPC context and/or its small sample properties. The common criticism includes sensitivity to the choice of instrument set, weak identification and small sample bias. In this thesis I propose a new estimation strategy that provides a remedy to above mentioned shortcomings and allows to obtain reliable estimates. The procedure exploits recent advances in GMM theory as well as in other fields of statistics, in particular in the area of time series factor analysis and bootstrap. The proposed estimation strategy consists of several consecutive steps: first, to reduce a small sample bias resulting from excessive use of instruments I summarize all available information by employing factor analysis and include estimated factors into information set. In the second step I use statistical information criteria to select optimal instruments and eventually I obtain confidence intervals on parameters using bootstrap method. In NKPC context all these methods were used for the first time and can also be used independently. Their combination however provides synergistic effect that helps to improve the properties of estimates and to check the efficiency of given steps. Obtained results suggest that NKPC model can explain Czech inflation dynamics fairly well and provide some support for underlying theory. Among other things the results imply that the policy of disinflation may not be as costly with respect to a loss in aggregate product as earlier versions of Phillips curve would indicate. However, finding a good proxy for real economic activity has proved to be a difficult task. In particular we demonstrated that results are conditional on how the measure is calculated, some measures even showed countercyclical behaviour. This issue -- in the thesis discussed only in passing -- is a subject of future research. In addition to the proposed strategy and provided parameter estimates the thesis brings some partial simulation-based findings. Simulations elaborate on earlier literature on naive bootstrap in GMM context and study performance of bootstrap modifications of unit root and KPSS test.

En los últimos años se ha desarollado mucho la literatura que utiliza modelos estocásticos de equilibrio económico general en economía abierta. En esta clase de modelos el primer capítulo estudia si el banco central tiene que fijarse en al inflación medida mirando al los precios al consumo (CPI) o a los precios a la producción. Se demonstra como la introducción de competencia monopolística en el mercado del trabajo y rigidez de los salarios nominales justifica el utilizo de la inflación medida sobre CPI. En el segundo capítulo el enfoque es sobre las diferentes volatilidades de la inflación entre paísos de la unión monetaria y como esto se puede relacionar con diferentes estructuras del mercado del trabajo. En el último capítulo se utiliza un modelo a dos paísos para estudiar las consecuencias de una subida del precio del petróleo sobre la inflación, los salarios reales y el producto interno bruto. / In these last years there has been an increasing literature developing DSGE Open Economy Models with market imperfections and nominal rigidities. It is the so called "New Open Economy Macroeconomics". Within this class of models the first chapter analyses the issue of whether the monetary authority should target Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation or domestic inflation. It is shown that the introduction of monopolistic competition in the labour market and nominal wage rigidities rationalise CPI inflation targeting. In the second chapter we introduce matching and searching frictions in the labour market and relate different labour market structures across European countries with differences in the volatility of inflation across the same countries. In the last chapter we use a two-country model with oil in the production function and price and wage rigidities to relate movements in wage and price inflation, real wages and GDP growth rate to oil price changes.

El modelo Neo Keynesiano estándar ha sido una de las herramientas más influyentes en debates sobre dinámica macroeconómica, política monetaria y bienestar. Además, este modelo constituye una pieza fundamental en la elaboración de los modelos macroeconómicos que muchos bancos centrales utilizan para la simulación y predicción de variables económicas como la inflación y el crecimiento. El objetivo de esta tesis es evaluar la veracidad de las siguientes tres implicancias del modelo Neo Keynesiano estándar. Primero, con estabilidad de precios plena, las pérdidas de bienestar que se generan por las rigideces de precios deben ser cero. Segundo, la inflación es un fenómeno determinado por las expectativas. Tercero, el dinero no tiene un rol independiente en el mecanismo de transmisión de la política monetaria. / The standard New Keynesian (NK) model has become one of the most influential tools in discussions of macroeconomic dynamics, monetary policy and welfare. Moreover, it has emerged as the backbone of the medium scale macroeconomic models that several central banks use for simulation and forecasting purposes. This thesis evaluates the accuracy of the following three implications of the standard NK model. First, with full price stability the welfare losses resulting from price stickiness should be zero. Second, inflation is a forward-looking phenomenon. Third, money does not play an independent role in the monetary transmission mechanism.

My dissertation is a collection of three essays that study various aspects of non-price competition among firms using fully microfounded general equilibrium models. The first two chapters, both coauthored with Benedetto Molinari, introduce advertising expenditures by firms into a dynamic and stochastic general equilibrium model (DSGE), in order to address the question of whether and how aggregate advertising expenditures provide important effects upon the aggregate economy. In particular, the first chapter provides a short-run analysis, by focusing on the implications of aggregate adverting expenditure upon the business cycle. The second chapter, in turn, focuses on long-run effects of advertising, by analyzing the implications upon the steady-state equilibrium of aggregate advertising expenditures by firms. The last chapter, by using a modified version of the canonical New Keynesian model, investigates the effect upon inflation dynamics of non-price competition among firms. / Esta tesis contiene tres ensayos que estudian varios aspectos de la competencia no en precio entre las impresas, utilizando modelos de equilibrio general micro-fundados. En los primeros dos capítulos, ambos coautorados con Benedetto Molinari, se introducen gastos en publicidad de las empresas en un modelo dinámico y estocástico de equilibrio general, a través del cual, se estudian las implicaciones de la publicidad en la economía agregada. El primer capítulo se focaliza en los efectos de corto plazo de la publicidad, analizando las implicaciones con respecto al ciclo económico. El segundo capítulo, estudia los efectos de largo plazo de la publicidad, con el objetivo de analizar las implicaciones sobra el estado estacionario del economía. En el último capítulo se utiliza una versión modificada del modelo Neo-Keynesiano que estudia los efectos de la competencia no en precio en relación la dinámica de la inflación.

Esta tesis extiende el modelo estándar Neo Keynesiano con el propósito de contestar dos preguntas: ¿cómo debe ser diseñada la política monetaria en uniones monetarias heterogéneas? y ¿cuál es el efecto de presiones competitivas sobre la dinámica de la inflación? El primer capítulo analiza el diseño de política monetaria en uniones monetarias en las cuales los países miembros muestran diferentes grados de apertura externa. Esta heterogeneidad implica que el plan de la política óptimo muestra una inclinación muy fuerte por la estabilización del tipo de cambio, con el objetivo de disminuir los diferenciales de inflación. El segundo capítulo estudia el diseño de reglas de metas en una unión monetaria con choques idiosincráticos cost-push que tienen diferentes volatilidades. El tercer capítulo estima un curva de Phillips Neo Keynesiana derivada de un modelo con entrada endógena de firmas, en el cual el número de firmas activas está inversamente relacionado con el markup deseado. Se cuantifica el efecto de las fluctuaciones del markup deseado sobre los costes marginales reales. / This thesis extends the basic New Keynesian (NK) model to answer two questions. How should monetary policy be designed in heterogeneous currency areas? What is the effect of competitive pressures on the inflation dynamics? The first chapter analyzes the monetary policy design in currency areas in which countries display different degrees of external openness. Such heterogeneity implies that the optimal policy plan exhibits a stronger motive for the currency area exchange rate stabilization in order to dampen inflation differentials. The second chapter studies the design of targeting rules in currency areas with country-specific cost-push shocks that have different volatilities. The third chapter estimates a NK Phillips curve derived from a model with endogenous firm entry in which the number of active firms is inversely related to their desired markup. It quantifies the effect of the desired markup fluctuations on the pass-through of real marginal cost. .

This thesis is a collection of three essays on inflation expectations, forecasting uncertainty, and the role of uncertainty in sequential auctions, all using experimental approach. Chapter 1 studies how individuals forecast inflation in fictitious macroeconomic setup and analyzes the effect of monetary policy rules on their decisions. Results display heterogeneity in inflation forecasting rules and demonstrate the importance of adaptive learning forecasting if model switching is assumed. Chapter 2 extends the analysis from Chapter 1 by analyzing individual inflation forecasting uncertainty. Results show that confidence intervals depend on inflation variance and business cycle phase, have a strong inertia, and are often asymmetric. Finally, Chapter 3 analyzes the role of uncertainty about the number of bidders for the behavior of subjects in a sequential auction experiment. Uncertainty does not aggravate price decline, but it changes individual bidding strategies and auction efficiency. / Esta tesis consta de tres ensayos sobre las expectativas de inflación, la incertidumbre de la predicción, y la importancia de la incertidumbre en subastas secuenciales. Todos ellos utilizan un método experimental. El capítulo 1 estudia cómo los individuos predicen la inflación en la economía ficticia y analiza el efecto de las reglas de política monetaria en sus decisiones. Los resultados revelan la heterogeneidad en las reglas de predicción de la inflación y demuestran la importancia del mecanismo de aprendizaje adaptivo si el cambio entre los modelos se supone. Capítulo 2 continúa el análisis del capítulo 1, analiza la incertidumbre individual de las expectativas de inflación. Los resultados muestran que los intervalos de confianza dependen de varianza de la inflación y la fase del ciclo económico, tienen una fuerte inercia, y son frecuentemente asimétricos. Por último, el capítulo 3 analiza la influencia de la incertidumbre sobre el número de oferentes en el comportamiento de los individuos en un experimento de la subasta secuencial. La incertidumbre no agrava la caída de los precios, pero cambia las estrategias de los oferentes y la eficiencia de la subasta.

La thèse étudie les implications des anticipations des agents privés formées avec l’apprentissage adaptatif pour la politique monétaire optimale dans des modèles Nouveau Keynésien. Les résultats obtenus sont comparés avec la littérature adoptant l’hypothèse d’anticipations rationnelles. La banque centrale fait l’arbitrage intertemporel introduit par les anticipations à apprentissage adaptatif entre stabiliser l’inflation maintenant et dans le futur. La distorsion générée par ces anticipations rend la politique monétaire davantage agressive, même si la présence du marché financier diminue légèrement l’agressivité de la politique monétaire. Il est optimal pour le gouvernement de choisir un banquier central libéral, ce résultat peut être mitigé par un contrat d’inflation linéaire. Un autre résultat est qu’il est optimal pour la banque centrale d’être moins indépendante en termes d’instruments par rapport aux anticipations rationnelles. La possibilité de contrôle robuste de la politique monétaire est limitée par l’apprentissage adaptatif en économie fermée, et encore plus limitée en économie ouverte. Mes travaux de recherche donnent des recommandations nouvelles. / The dissertation studies the implications of private agents expectations formed with adaptive learning for the optimal monetary policy using New Keynesian models. The obtained results are compared with the literature adopting the hypothesis of rational expectations. The central bank makes the intertemporal trade-off between stabilizing current inflation or the future one that is introduced by adaptive learning expectations. The distortion which is introduced by this latter makes the monetary policy more aggressive, even if the presence of financial market slightly reduces the aggressiveness of the monetary policy. It is optimal for the government to choose a liberal central banker, but this result may be mitigated by adopting a linear inflation contract. Another result is that it is optimal for the central bank to be less instrument-independent compared to rational expectations. The possibility of robust control for monetary policy is limited by adaptive learning in a closed economy, and even more limited in an open economy. My research works give new recommendations for policy making.

Submitted by Felix Sebastian Neugebauer (fexgebauer@gmail.com) on 2012-01-20T06:47:16Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissertacao MPGI - Felix Neugebauer.pdf: 917872 bytes, checksum: 216f642b7bdd46aac088024cf0610158 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Suzinei Teles Garcia Garcia (suzinei.garcia@fgv.br) on 2012-01-20T10:27:30Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissertacao MPGI - Felix Neugebauer.pdf: 917872 bytes, checksum: 216f642b7bdd46aac088024cf0610158 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2012-01-20T11:15:05Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissertacao MPGI - Felix Neugebauer.pdf: 917872 bytes, checksum: 216f642b7bdd46aac088024cf0610158 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2011-12-20 / The thesis introduces a system dynamics Taylor rule model of new Keynesian nature for monetary policy feedback in Brazil. The nonlinear Taylor rule for interest rate changes con-siders gaps and dynamics of GDP growth and inflation. The model closely tracks the 2004 to 2011 business cycle and outlines the endogenous feedback between the real interest rate, GDP growth and inflation. The model identifies a high degree of endogenous feedback for monetary policy and inflation, while GDP growth remains highly exposed to exogenous eco-nomic conditions. The results also show that the majority of the monetary policy moves during the sample period was related to GDP growth, despite higher coefficients of inflation parameters in the Taylor rule. This observation challenges the intuition that inflation target-ing leads to a dominance of monetary policy moves with respect to inflation. Furthermore, the results suggest that backward looking price-setting with respect to GDP growth has been the dominant driver of inflation. Moreover, simulation exercises highlight the effects of the new BCB strategy initiated in August 2011 and also consider recession and inflation avoid-ance versions of the Taylor rule. In methodological terms, the Taylor rule model highlights the advantages of system dynamics with respect to nonlinear policies and to the stock-and-flow approach. In total, the strong historical fit and some counterintuitive observations of the Taylor rule model call for an application of the model to other economies.

Submitted by Juliane Andrade (juliane.a.andrade@gmail.com) on 2018-09-25T12:53:53Z No. of bitstreams: 1 DissertacaoFinalJulianeAndrade.pdf: 2648304 bytes, checksum: 0feea2eb88019ffdafb37180bd261f3b (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Joana Martorini (joana.martorini@fgv.br) on 2018-09-25T15:17:07Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 DissertacaoFinalJulianeAndrade.pdf: 2648304 bytes, checksum: 0feea2eb88019ffdafb37180bd261f3b (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Suzane Guimarães (suzane.guimaraes@fgv.br) on 2018-09-25T16:40:46Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 DissertacaoFinalJulianeAndrade.pdf: 2648304 bytes, checksum: 0feea2eb88019ffdafb37180bd261f3b (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2018-09-25T16:40:46Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 DissertacaoFinalJulianeAndrade.pdf: 2648304 bytes, checksum: 0feea2eb88019ffdafb37180bd261f3b (MD5) Previous issue date: 2018-08-16 / Esse trabalho apresenta análise combinada entre a macroeconomia e a estrutura a termo das taxas de juros, através de duas modelagens distintas. Primeiramente, utiliza-se o modelo Novo Keynesiano de pequeno porte, que é combinado com o modelo dinâmico de Nelson-Siegel. Em seguida estima-se o modelo dinâmico de Nelson-Siegel integrado com variáveis macroeconômicas. São empregados dados mensais referentes aos contratos futuros de DI, de Setembro de 2002 a Dezembro de 2017. A comparação das modelagens mostra que o modelo combinado apresenta resultados mais consistentes do que o modelo integrado. / This paper aims to present a combined analysis between macroeconomics and the term structure of interest rates, through two different models. Firstly, a small New Keynesian model is used, which is combined with the dynamic Nelson-Siegel model. Then the NelsonSiegel dynamic model integrated with macroeconomic variables is estimated. Monthly data on DI futures contracts are used from September 2002 to December 2017. Comparison of modeling shows that the combined model presents more consistent results than the integrated model.