[pt] Quais devem ser a características da política monetária ótima sob comprometimento em uma situação de armadilha da liquidez global quando os Bancos Centrais não coordenam suas ações? Fazendo o uso de um modelo de economia aberta com dois países, fizemos um exercício numérico para endereçar essa questão e estudar as diferenças entre este caso e uma situação cooperativa, na qual as autoridades monetárias não estão somente preocupadas com a utilidade da população nacional, mas em vez disso maximizam uma medida de bem-estar global. Nossas descobertas apontam para diferenças nas características de dependência histórica e internacional da prescrição monetária em cada um dos casos observados. Também é feita uma análise de bem-estar do nosso experimento que sugere que um Banco Central local prefere, não só permanecer restrito pelo limite inferior zero da taxa de juros nominal por um período maior, mas também que o país estrangeiro saia dessa situação o quanto antes. Por fim, fazemos uma análise de robustez dos nossos resultados variando o tamanho de cada nação e o grau de substituição dos produtos produzidos em cada localidade. / [en] What should be the characteristics of the optimal monetary policy under commitment in the situation of a global liquidity trap when Central Banks do not coordinate their actions? Using a two-country open economy model, we perform a numerical exercise in order to address this question and study the differences between this setting and a cooperative situation, when monetary authorities are not only worried with the national household utility, but instead maximize a measure of world welfare. Our findings points towards differences of history and international dependence features of optimal monetary prescriptions in each of the observed cases. We also execute a welfare analysis of our experiment that suggests that a local Central Bank prefers, not only to stay restrained by zero lower bound (ZLB) on nominal interest rates for a longer period, but also that the foreign country exists this situation as early as possible. Lastly, we make a robustness analysis of our results varying the size of each nation and the degree of substitution of the composite goods produced in each locality.

Submitted by Gabriel Perlott Miguens (gpmiguens@gmail.com) on 2017-03-29T02:52:07Z No. of bitstreams: 1 TESE_Cambio_Regra de Taylor.pdf: 908855 bytes, checksum: 1b33a5bdcea9f731382b0785af425c26 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Renata de Souza Nascimento (renata.souza@fgv.br) on 2017-03-29T17:06:37Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 TESE_Cambio_Regra de Taylor.pdf: 908855 bytes, checksum: 1b33a5bdcea9f731382b0785af425c26 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2017-03-29T17:13:21Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 TESE_Cambio_Regra de Taylor.pdf: 908855 bytes, checksum: 1b33a5bdcea9f731382b0785af425c26 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2017-02-17 / The objective of this paper is to analyze the relationship between the Brazilian nominal exchange rate and the economic fundamentals, defined according to the Taylor rule. The transitory and permanent decomposition method was applied in order to identify how the model variables respond to transitory and permanent shocks. The interest is to identify how this relationship occurred during the floating exchange period. In Brazil, this occurred in 1999. At the same time, we try to verify evidence to consider that the fluctuations of the Brazilian nominal exchange rate do not follow a random walk process in the modern era of floating exchange rate. The results showed that the variables of the model are cointegrated and the transitory shocks play an important role in the Brazilian nominal exchange rate fluctuations while the permanent shocks are quite present in the fluctuations of the economic fundamentals of the model. Moreover, the results suggest that there is evidence that the Brazilian nominal exchange rate behavior should not be considered a random walk process. / O objetivo deste trabalho é analisar a relação entre a taxa de câmbio nominal brasileira e os fundamentos econômicos, definidos de acordo com a regra de Taylor. Foi aplicado o método de decomposição transitória e permanente com objetivo de se identificar como as variáveis do modelo respondem à choques transitórios e permanentes ao longo do tempo. O interesse é identificar como se deu essa relação durante o período de câmbio flutuante no Brasil, que ocorreu a partir de 1999. Ao mesmo tempo, busca-se verificar a existência de evidências para considerarmos que as flutuações do câmbio nominal brasileiro não seguem um processo passeio aleatório na era moderna de câmbio flutuante. Os resultados demonstraram que as variáveis do modelo são co-integradas e que os choques transitórios possuem participação importante nas flutuações do câmbio nominal brasileiro enquanto os choques permanentes são bastante presentes nas flutuações dos fundamentos econômicos do modelo. Além disso, os resultados sugerem que há evidências de que o comportamento do câmbio nominal brasileiro não deve ser considerado um processo passeio aleatório.

La présente thèse tente de savoir s’il est opportun pour les pays en développement les moins avancés de s’engager davantage dans le processus de globalisation financière pour promouvoir leur croissance, et si ce processus influence les effets des instabilités, financière et monétaire, sur cette dernière. A cette fin, la thèse se déroule en trois parties. Avant d’examiner le cadre théorique de la globalisation financière, la première partie esquisse sa genèse avec en arrière-fond la recherche d’une réponse au problème de sa régulation. La deuxième partie s’intéresse à la littérature sur les effets de la globalisation financière sur la croissance, afin d’en tirer les enseignements pour une étude de 72 pays en développement à revenu bas de 1972 à 2011. La troisième partie se focalise sur les impacts de la globalisation financière et des deux instabilités considérées isolément, puis en interaction avec la globalisation sur la croissance à travers deux études empiriques basées sur le même cadre spatio-temporel que l’étude précédente. Ces dernières sont précédées par une revue des relations entre la globalisation financière, l’instabilité financière puis monétaire et la croissance, avec une analyse théorique de l’instabilité financière. Il en ressort que les instabilités, financière et monétaire, ont des effets négatifs sur la croissance, tandis que la globalisation financière, et en particulier la globalisation par l’investissement contrairement à celle par l’endettement, promeut les bienfaits des politiques économiques et du commerce extérieur, en plus de son effet positif direct sur la croissance même en présence des deux instabilités dont elle diminue les effets négatifs. / This thesis examines whether or not it is beneficial for least developed countries to engage more in the process of financial globalization in pursuit of their economic growth, and if this process influences the effects of financial and monetary instability on the latter. This thesis is divided into three parts. Before examining the theoretical framework of financial globalization, the first part sketches its genesis on a background of the research for an answer to the problem of its regulation. The second part focuses on the literature on the impact of financial globalization on growth. This is done in order to draw lessons for the establishment of a study covering 72 low-income developing countries over the period 1972-2011. The third part centers on the impact on economic growth of financial globalization and the two aforementioned types of instability, discussed both separately and in conjunction. Evidence is provided by two empirical studies based on the same spatio-temporal framework as the previous one. These studies are preceded by a review of the literature on the relationship between financial globalization, financial and then monetary instability and growth, in addition to a theoretical analysis of financial instability. This illustrates that financial and monetary instability have negative effects on growth, while financial globalization and in particular investment-globalization, unlike indebtedness-globalization, promotes the benefits of macroeconomic policies and international trade. This can be find in addition to its direct positive effect on growth, even in the presence of the two instabilities of which it reduces the negative effects.

Selon la théorie du syntagme nominal développée par Wilmet (2003), la notion de caractérisant est une notion fonctionnelle qui désigne tous les « accompagnateurs » du nom (ou déterminants) qui modifient l’extension du nom. Cette notion est indépendante des catégories morpho-syntaxique puisqu’on trouve parmi les caractérisants des adjectifs, des syntagmes prépositionnels, des noms, des adverbes, des propositions relatives voire des phrases entières.<p>Les linguistes du français se sont surtout intéressés à la position absolue de l’adjectif (antéposition ou postposition au nom), mais peu à leur ordre relatif. Il était intéressant d’étendre le point de vue à tous les caractérisants parce que le mélange de caractérisants de différentes natures, en particulier la séquence relative de l’adjectif et du complément du nom, pose d’intéressantes questions linguistiques. La notion fonctionnelle montre également sa valeur dans un cadre comparatiste, car différentes langues ne rendent pas le même concept avec la même catégorie morpho-syntaxique.<p>Notre théorie est que la séquence des caractérisants, tant en antéposition qu’en postposition, est régie par une hiérarchie de critères morpho-syntaxiques et sémantiques, en particulier par leur valeur classificatrice, descriptive ou spécificatrice. On a souvent classé les adjectifs en fonction de leur appartenance à une classe sémantique ontologique (couleur, forme, matière…). En réalité, de très nombreux adjectifs et caractérisants n’entrent pas dans ces catégories et ce type de classification n’est pas le premier critère à l’œuvre dans l’ordre des mots. <p>Le syntagme nominal apparaît dès lors comme structuré en différentes couches concentriques autour du nom ;il est délimité en antéposition par les quantifiants et en postposition par les caractérisants spécificateurs qui lui font en quelque sorte pendant. On observera dès lors d’intéressants phénomènes de sens et d’acceptabilité grammaticale dans le jeu des quantifiants et des caractérisants. Inversement, la position relative d’un caractérisant influe sur sa valeur. On pourrait résumer ces effets de sens par la formule :on dit d’abord ce que c’est, ensuite comment c’est, et enfin lequel c’est. De manière très générale donc, on observe que l’orientation des déterminants se fait selon un axe intrinsèque-extrinsèque ou objectif-subjectif.<p>L’étude d’expressions dans d’autres langues et dans des domaines spécialisés (cuisine, appellations officielles incluant des adjectifs géographiques, localisation de logiciels et chimie organique) permet de valider cette hypothèse tout en montrant que l’ordre des mots est un phénomène de génération, propre à chaque langue car la traduction modifie la nature morpho-syntaxique et peut modifier la valeur des caractérisants. <p>La partie technique de la thèse a exploité des techniques de traduction assistée par ordinateur, de traduction automatique et de traitement du langage, elle a fait appel aux langages de balisage standards de la famille XML pour la représentation des corpus et des règles ainsi que pour la réalisation des procédures. Les corpus spécialisés ont été constitués par alignement de corpus monolingues ou par traduction. Ils ont tous été mis au format XML ;les règles de traduction ont été formalisées dans le même format et elles ont été implémentées en XSLT. La formalisation des corpus en assure la portabilité et facilite les recherches de structures grammaticales sur un corpus catégorisé. Les corpus parallèles sont en outre d’une grande aide pour les traducteurs. Enfin, l’automatisation permet de valider les règles linguistiques proposées. / Doctorat en philosophie et lettres, Orientation langue et littérature / info:eu-repo/semantics/nonPublished

Under de senaste 14 åren har den svenska kronan genomgått en period av depreciering mot många andra valutor. Detta väcker frågan om vad som ligger till grund för växelkursens rörelser. Denna studie ämnar därför undersöka om det öppna ränteparitetsvillkoret kan förklara relationen mellan förändringar i växelkurser och räntedifferenser på kort sikt. För att undersöka frågan har två regressionsmodeller konstruerats med räntedifferenser som förklarande variabel och fluktuationer i växelkursen som beroende variabel. Studien begränsas till att undersöka förhållandet mellan Sverige som inhemskt land och Euroområdet samt USA som utländska områden/länder. Eftersom euron och den amerikanska dollarn kategoriseras som “safe haven” valutor inkluderas safe haven teorin som en sekundär aspekt i analysen. Studien använder månadsvis data över perioden 1999-2022. Regressionsmodellernas resultat visar en korrelation som är något avvikande från det öppna ränteparitetsvillkoret. Regressionsmodellerna presenterar icke-signifikanta resultat och studiens slutsats är därmed att undersökningen inte presenterar tillräckligt med bevis för att säkerställa att den sanna relationen mellan räntedifferenser och förändringar i växelkursen skiljer sig signifikant från ränteparitetsvillkoret. / Over the past fourteen years the Swedish krona has undergone a period of depreciation against many other currencies. This raises the question of what factors drive the movements of the exchange rate. This study intends to examine if the open interest parity condition can explain the relationship between fluctuations in the exchange rate and the interest rate differentials in the short term. To examine the subject two regression models have been constructed with the interest rate differentials as the explanatory variable and fluctuations in the exchange rate as the dependent variable. The research is narrowed down to examine the relationship between Sweden as the domestic country and the euro area and USA as foreign areas/countries. As the euro and the american dollar are categorized as “safe haven” currencies the safe haven theory is also included as a secondary aspect of the analysis. The study utilizes monthly data over the period 1999-2022. The results of the regression models show a correlation that deviates somewhat from the open interest parity condition. The regression models present non-significant results and the study's conclusion is thus that the study does not present enough evidence to ensure that the true relationship between interest rate differentials and changes in the exchange rate differs significantly from the interest parity condition.

In an effort to assess the predictive ability of exchange rate models when data on African countries is sampled, this paper studies nonlinear modelling and prediction of the nominal exchange rate series of the United States dollar to currencies of thirty-eight African states using the smooth transition autoregressive (STAR) model. A three step analysis is undertaken. One, it investigates nonlinearity in all nominal exchange rate series examined using a chain of credible statistical in-sample tests. Significantly, evidence of nonlinear exponential STAR (ESTAR) dynamics is detected across all series. Two, linear models are provided another chance to make it right by shuffling to data on African countries to investigate their predictive power against the tough random walk without drift model. Linear models again failed significantly. Lastly, the predictive ability of nonlinear models against both the random walk without drift and the corresponding linear models is investigated. Nonlinear models display useful forecasting gains over all contending models.

This diploma thesis deals with the nominal convergence and adoption of the single currency in Slovakia and Czech Republic. The first chapter briefly describes the formation of the Economic and Monetary Union. The second chapter concentrates on the Slovak and Czech Republic and their fulfilling of nominal convergent criteria. The third chapter describes and evaluates Slovak process of euro adoption. The forth chapter deals with the Czech Republic and euro and provides also opinion of various subjects on euro introduction.

This thesis concentrates on the new member states of the European Union and their convergent processes. It is particularly focused on five Central European countries -- the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Slovakia and Slovenia, which became the members of the European Union on 1st May 2004. The first chapter deals with the countries during their preparation process for the membership in the EU, the meeting the Copenhagen Criteria and their economic development. The second chapter is focused on the development of Central European countries in the EU. There is featured the development in the first years of their membership and during the economic crisis and the recovery. The third chapter concentrates on the processes of the real and nominal convergence in the Central Europe. Besides monitoring various stages of convergence over time there is documented the course of the convergence by the calculation of beta convergence in the European Union. At the end of the thesis there is outlined the relationship between the degree of nominal and real convergence in the concerned countries.

Made available in DSpace on 2016-07-27T14:21:38Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Reginaldo Pedroso.pdf: 430869 bytes, checksum: a8bf7234236f302fa236cff6c8e57ee5 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2008-02-01 / In most of the time, people tend to describe frequency or probability of events with words instead of numbers. The description of an event with words may lead to misunderstanding its actual probability. These descriptions have been used in several psychological instruments, but there are no systematic investigations on how different individuals may be affected by them. The aim of present work was to estimate equivalent numerical probabilities to the chances to receive a probable hypothetical amount of money presented with nominal descriptions for 33 undergraduate students. The task consisted in choices between a large amount of money and small amounts, which was adjusted up and down. The experiment was divided in two phases: in one the chances to receive the large amount was presented with percentage (10% to 90%), and in the other, the chances were presented with words. A power function showed to be a better description of individual indifference values than a hyperbolic one. The free parameters calculated from linear regression obtained with numerical probabilities were used to estimate the equivalent probabilities to nominal descriptions. The results showed that both estimated probabilities and indifference values were variable among participants. Some differences came from conditions as well as adjusting exposition order. These results reinforce the necessity to use quantitative measures in psychological evaluation instruments, so it can be more sensitive to these differences. / Na maioria das vezes as pessoas tendem a descrever a freqüência ou probabilidade dos eventos do cotidiano através de descrições nominais. Descrever a ocorrência de um dado fenômeno de forma nominal pode levar a má compreensão do mesmo. Descrições como estas têm sido utilizadas em diversos instrumentos psicológicos, mas não há investigações sistemáticas de como elas afetam diferentes indivíduos. O objetivo do presente estudo foi estimar as probabilidades equivalentes a cinco descrições nominais das chances de ganho de uma quantia hipotética provável, com 33 estudantes universitários. A tarefa consistiu em escolher entre uma quantia maior provável e outra quantia menor certa que era aumentada e diminuída. O experimento foi dividido em duas fases: em uma era apresentada quantia provável com a descrição das chances de ganho apresentada numericamente através de porcentagem (10% a 90%) e, na outra fase, a descrição das chances de ganho da quantia provável foi descrita nominalmente (pouquíssimas chances, poucas chances, chances médias, muitas chances e muitíssimas chances). A partir dos dados obtidos na fase com descrição numérica das probabilidades, uma função potência se demonstrou mais adequada que a hipérbole na descrição das curvas de desconto probabilístico. Os dados das constantes da função potência foram utilizados para estimar as probabilidades equivalentes às descrições nominais para cada participante separadamente. Os resultados demonstraram que tanto as probabilidades estimadas quanto os valores de indiferença apresentaram uma grande variabilidade entre participantes. Diferenças foram encontradas quando comparadas as ordens de exposição, tanto das condições (numérica e nominal) quanto dos ajustes (ascendente e descente). Os presentes resultados reforçam a necessidade de se utilizar medidas quantitativas em instrumentos de avaliação psicológica que permitem uma avaliação mais clara dessas diferenças individuais.

Esta dissertação investiga nomes nus e classificadores numerais do chinês mandarim, assim como a distinção lexical entre nomes contáveis e massivos do chinês. O objetivo deste trabalho é estudar e avaliar as possíveis denotações dos nominais do chinês mandarim. O texto é divido em três partes. Na primeira, investigam-se nomes nus do chinês mandarim, que manifestam número geral. Defende-se que o número geral não ocorre em sintagmas nominais em que existe numeral. No Chinês mandarim, nomes nus podem ser interpretados como indefinidos, definidos e genéricos de acordo com suas posições sintáticas e contextos em que ocorrem. A hipótese defendida na segunda parte da dissertação é a de que, no chinês mandarim, há distinção lexical entre nomes contáveis e massivos. Um fator importante na distinção contável-massivo do chinês mandarim é a presença de classificadores e suas relações com os nomes. Defende-se que a combinação entre os nomes e os classificadores é seletiva e, com base nisso, os nomes comuns do chinês podem ser divididos em nomes contáveis, nomes massivos, nomes coletivos, nomes abstratos e nomes próprios. Além de classificador, mais uma evidência para a contabilidade dos nomes do chinês é o morfema men. A terceira parte da dissertação avalia a presença de classificador nos sintagmas nominais com numerais. Defende-se que diferentes grupos de classificadores possuem diferentes funções: classificadores individuais são marcadores gramaticais de contabilidade e não têm a função individualizadora e, os outros grupos têm suas restrições na combinação com os nomes. A combinação entre numeral e classificador pode ser tratada como um núcleo complexo que ocorre morfologicamente como um item lexical, mas o numeral pode-se omitir dentro deste complexo e classificador não. Sendo assim, Os classificadores devem ser tratados como um sufixo na sua ocorrência dentro do complexo [Num-CL], mas como um clítico em outras ocorrências. / This dissertation investigates bare nouns and numeral classifiers in Mandarin Chinese, as well as the lexical distinction between count and mass nouns of Chinese. The goal of this work is to study and assess the possible denotations of nominals in Mandarin Chinese. The dissertation is divided in three parts. In the first part, the bare nominals in Mandarin Chinese will be investigated and they have general number. We argue that the general number can not happen in noun phrases when they contain numerals. In Mandarin Chinese, the bare nouns can be interpreted as indefinites, definites and generics, according to their syntactic positions and contexts in that they happen. The hypothesis presented in the second part of this dissertation is that in Mandarin Chinese, there is the lexical distinction between count and mass nouns. One important factor in this count-mass distinction of Mandarin Chinese is the presence of classifiers and their relationships with the nouns. We argue that, based on the selective combination between names and classifiers, the common nouns of Chinese can be divided in count nouns, mass nouns, collective nouns, abstract nouns and proper nouns. Besides the classifier, one more evidence for the accounting of Chinese\'s names is the morpheme men. The third part of the dissertation assesses the classifiers presence in the noun phrases with numerals. We argue that, different groups of classifiers have different functions: the individual classifiers are grammatical markers of accounting and they do not have the individualizing function, while the other groups have their restrictions in the combination with the nouns. The combination between the numeral and the classifier can be treated as a complex head that happens morphologically as a lexical item, but the numeral in which can be omitted in some contexts and the classifier can not. Thus, the classifiers should be treated as a suffix in his occurrence with the complex [Num-CL], but as a clitic in other occurrences.