Doctor of Philosophy / Department of Personal Financial Planning / Sonya L. Britt / This dissertation explores the personal financial planning risk-assessment process. Specifically, the study has five main purposes: 1. Explore the associations among independent risk-assessment variables. 2. Explore the concept that prudent financial risk-assessment goes beyond estimating an individual’s risk tolerance. 3. Explore the impact that each risk variable has on an individual’s overall Comprehensive Risk Profile (CRP). 4. Construct a comprehensive method of risk-assessment to estimate an individual’s overall risk profile. 5. Develop a weighted risk profile score and assign it to a target asset allocation model. Risk-assessment is one of the most instrumental components of the financial planning process. Financial planners and advisors have a fiduciary, as well as a suitability, responsibility to assess the level of risk individuals should bear with respect to their financial plan (Morse, 1998). Because of this, the evaluation of one’s risk profile impacts the success of an individual’s financial plan. If the risk-assessment is accurate, financial goals will have a higher likelihood of being met. To date, little research in the personal financial planning field has attempted to model financial risk-taking behavior in a way that is useful for practitioners, academics, and policy makers. The literature has tended to focus on either models of risk-taking rooted in economic utility theory, or tests of hypotheses related to the association among demographic and socioeconomic factors and risk-taking (Grable & Lytton, 1998). Traditional economic models do not fully account for the role that personal, behavioral, and environmental factors play in influencing individuals’ behavior beyond maximizing their expected utility (Hanna & Chen, 1997). Researchers have yet to develop a risk-profiling system that uses these behavioral or personal factors, to describe an individual’s financial risk-taking framework. Ultimately, the results of this study will lead to a multidimensional, comprehensive, accurate method of risk-assessment for both academic researchers, as well as practitioners. The following will serve as the empirical model for the study.

Le domaine abordé dans notre travail se situe autour de l'aide à la décision multi-critère. Nous avons tout d'abord étudié les risques bancaires au travers d'une revue de la littérature très large. Nous avons ensuite élaboré un modèle théorique regroupant quatre catégories différentes composées de dix-neuf cas de risques financiers. Au travers de ce modèle théorique, nous avons mené une validation expérimentale avec un cas réel : La caisse d'épargne du Midi-Pyrénées. Cette validation expérimentale nous a permis un approfondissement des analyses des pratiques pour la gestion des risques financières. Dans cette thèse, nous cherchons à apporter une contribution à la gestion des risques dans le domaine du secteur financier et plus particulièrement pour la sécurité de système d'information et plus précisément au niveau de la caisse d'épargne. Ces analyses s'appuient donc sur des faits observés, recueillis et mesurés, des expérimentations réelles, résultant de la politique de sécurité des systèmes d'information et voulant offrir une approche pragmatique de la présentation de l'analyse de risques financiers grâce à des méthodes d'aide multicritère à la décision. L'élaboration de ce modèle permet de représenter certains aspects spécifiques des risques financiers. Nos recherches ont donné lieu à la réalisation d'un résultat concret : un système d'aide à la décision pour les besoins du responsable du système d'information de la caisse d'épargne. Il s'agit d'un système efficace présentant les résultats sous forme de figures relatives pour les valeurs des critères attribués par le responsable de système de sécurité d'informations (RSSI). / We are working on multicriteria decision analysis. We started with the study of risk typology through a huge review of literature. We have developed a theoretical model grouping four different categories of nineteen financial risk cases. Through this theoretical model, we have applied them to the "Caisse d'Epargne Midi-Pyrénées". In this thesis, we seek to make a contribution to the security management of information systems at the level of the savings bank. These analyzes are based on facts observed, collected and measured with real experiments resulting in its information system security policy and want to offer a pragmatic approach to the presentation of financial risk analysis through methods supporting. multicriteria decision analysis. The development of this model makes it possible to represent certain specific aspects of the financial risks that have often occurred in their activities. Our research led to the achievement of a concrete result in relation to the needs of the information system manager of the savings bank. It is an effective decision support system by constructing relative figures for the values of the criteria assigned by the RSSI.

Dentre as diversas ferramentas disponíveis para gestão de risco no mercado financeiro, este trabalho analisa estratégias de hedging para commodities agrícolas, utilizando o mercado futuro. Isto posto, efetua-se uma revisão das diferentes estratégias apresentadas pela literatura e analisa-se sua aplicação para o mercado brasileiro. Ao construir uma estratégia de hedging no mercado futuro, busca-se determinar o número de contratos a ser adquirido ou vendido, de forma a reduzir o risco financeiro, resultante de oscilações adversas no preço dos ativos. Ou seja, considerando-se um portfólio composto por dois ativos, um no mercado à vista e outro no futuro, as diferentes medidas de desempenho caracterizadas pelas diversas estratégias - conduzem a diferentes portfólios ótimos. Dessa forma, pretende-se analisar qual a melhor estratégia, determinando, implicitamente, qual a composição de portfolio mais adequada a um agente específico no mercado de commodities. São analisados o mercado do café, da soja, do açúcar e do álcool. Ativos financeiros, como o câmbio e o Ibovespa, também são considerados, a fim de averiguar eventuais diferenças de comportamento das estratégias, resultantes de peculiaridades do mercado de commodities. As estratégias estudadas foram: de mínima variância; de mínima variância condicionada ao período de carregamento, de maximização do índice de Sharpe; de maximização da utilidade esperada; de minimização do coeficiente de Gini estendido; de regressão linear; de regressão linear condicionada ao conjunto de informações e regressão linear condicinada ao conjunto de informações e ao período de carregamento. Apesar de o trabalho considerar somente estratégias estáticas, que se caracterizam por, uma vez determinado a quantidade de contratos a se posicionar no mercado futuro, não mais se alterar até o vencimento dos mesmos, adotou-se uma abordagem dinâmica para análise, presumindo que o portfólio pudesse ser reestruturado ao longo do tempo, de acordo com o comportamento do mercado, permitindo empregar uma abordagem mais próxima da realidade. Os resultados indicaram que as estratégias possuem diferenças, derivadas de sua estrutura, mas não variaram significativamente em função do tipo de commodity analisada. Não foi possível também identificar uma estratégia que fosse superior às demais, ou mais adequada, para uma commodity específica, do ponto de vista de resultado financeiro. Os resultados sugerem entretanto, que a seleção de uma estratégia por parte do investidor, deverá considerar as tendências de mercado, abrindo espaço para a incorporação desta informação nos modelos empregados. / Among the various tools available for managing risk in the financial market, this research analyzes hedging strategies for agricultural commodities, using the future market. It given makes up a review of different strategies presented by the literature and looks to its application to the Brazilian market. By constructing a strategy of hedging in the future market, seeks to determine the number of contracts to be purchased or sold, in order to reduce the financial risk, resulting from adverse fluctuations in the price of assets. In other words, considering a portfolio consisting of two assets, one in the spot market and one in the future, the various measures of performance - characterized by different strategies - leading to different portfolios optimum. Thus, it is intended to examine the best strategy, determining, implicitly, what the composition of portfolio best suited to a specific agent on the market of commodities. The markets analyzed were the coffee market, soybean market, sugar and alcohol market. Financial assets, such as exchange and the Ibovespa Index, are also considered in order to ascertain any differences in behavior of strategies, from peculiarities of the commodities market. The strategies studied were: the minimum- variance, the minimum-variance on the time lifted, the maximum Sharpe index; the maximum expected utility, the minimum extended Gini coefficient; the regression method; the regression method conditional on the set of information, and regression method conditional on the set of information and the time lifted. Although this research considered only static strategies which have since determined the amount of contracts to position itself in the future market, no more changes until the expiration of them, took up a dynamic approach for analysis, assuming that the portfolio could be restructured over time, according to the behavior of the market and will allow an approach closer to reality. The results indicated that strategies have differences, derived from its structure, but did not vary significantly depending on the type of commodity examined. Unable also identify a strategy with superiority than other, or more appropriately, for a specific commodity, from the viewpoint of financial results. The results suggest, however that the selection of a strategy by the investor should consider the trends of the market, opening up space to incorporate this information into the model employed.

For the last fifty years, the efficient market hypothesis has been the central pillar of economic thought and touted by all, despite Sanford Grossman’ and Nobel prize winner Joseph Stiglitz’ objection in 1980. Andrew Lo updated the efficient market hypothesis in 2004 to reconcile irrational human behavior and cold, calculating automatons. This thesis utilizes 33 years of oil futures, GARCH regressions, and the Jensen-Shannon informational criteria to provide extensive empirical objections to informational efficiency. The results demonstrate continuously inefficient oil future markets which exhibit decreased informational efficiency during recessionary periods, advocating the adaptive market hypothesis over the efficient market hypothesis. / Includes bibliography. / Thesis (M.S.)--Florida Atlantic University, 2016. / FAU Electronic Theses and Dissertations Collection

Few sectors of the economy are as influential to the environment and are as susceptible to the influence of environmental changes as agriculture. This dissertation contains three chapters that examine agriculture as the primary interface at which human and nature interact. Primarily, I explore how policy support for financial risk management tools can have substantial impact on agricultural production choices via moral hazard and selection problems. While mitigating agricultural production risk, these supports also impact the environment via induced change in production choices. This dissertation contributes to U.S. agriculture policy and pollution management literature and insurance literature on moral hazard and selection problems. By examining the case of Federal Crop Insurance Program in the United States, this dissertation explores input choice changes caused by changes in government support for crop insurance. I proposed theoretical mechanism through which increasing use of financial risk management strategy can influence input decisions with risk implications, and tested these theories empirically with county-level panel data. Empirical tests showed that there were substantial decreases in irrigation investment and fertilizer application due to crop insurance offering. Policy implications on water scarcity and non-point source pollution management and on federal support to crop insurance market are discussed.

Dentre as diversas ferramentas disponíveis para gestão de risco no mercado financeiro, este trabalho analisa estratégias de hedging para commodities agrícolas, utilizando o mercado futuro. Isto posto, efetua-se uma revisão das diferentes estratégias apresentadas pela literatura e analisa-se sua aplicação para o mercado brasileiro. Ao construir uma estratégia de hedging no mercado futuro, busca-se determinar o número de contratos a ser adquirido ou vendido, de forma a reduzir o risco financeiro, resultante de oscilações adversas no preço dos ativos. Ou seja, considerando-se um portfólio composto por dois ativos, um no mercado à vista e outro no futuro, as diferentes medidas de desempenho caracterizadas pelas diversas estratégias - conduzem a diferentes portfólios ótimos. Dessa forma, pretende-se analisar qual a melhor estratégia, determinando, implicitamente, qual a composição de portfolio mais adequada a um agente específico no mercado de commodities. São analisados o mercado do café, da soja, do açúcar e do álcool. Ativos financeiros, como o câmbio e o Ibovespa, também são considerados, a fim de averiguar eventuais diferenças de comportamento das estratégias, resultantes de peculiaridades do mercado de commodities. As estratégias estudadas foram: de mínima variância; de mínima variância condicionada ao período de carregamento, de maximização do índice de Sharpe; de maximização da utilidade esperada; de minimização do coeficiente de Gini estendido; de regressão linear; de regressão linear condicionada ao conjunto de informações e regressão linear condicinada ao conjunto de informações e ao período de carregamento. Apesar de o trabalho considerar somente estratégias estáticas, que se caracterizam por, uma vez determinado a quantidade de contratos a se posicionar no mercado futuro, não mais se alterar até o vencimento dos mesmos, adotou-se uma abordagem dinâmica para análise, presumindo que o portfólio pudesse ser reestruturado ao longo do tempo, de acordo com o comportamento do mercado, permitindo empregar uma abordagem mais próxima da realidade. Os resultados indicaram que as estratégias possuem diferenças, derivadas de sua estrutura, mas não variaram significativamente em função do tipo de commodity analisada. Não foi possível também identificar uma estratégia que fosse superior às demais, ou mais adequada, para uma commodity específica, do ponto de vista de resultado financeiro. Os resultados sugerem entretanto, que a seleção de uma estratégia por parte do investidor, deverá considerar as tendências de mercado, abrindo espaço para a incorporação desta informação nos modelos empregados. / Among the various tools available for managing risk in the financial market, this research analyzes hedging strategies for agricultural commodities, using the future market. It given makes up a review of different strategies presented by the literature and looks to its application to the Brazilian market. By constructing a strategy of hedging in the future market, seeks to determine the number of contracts to be purchased or sold, in order to reduce the financial risk, resulting from adverse fluctuations in the price of assets. In other words, considering a portfolio consisting of two assets, one in the spot market and one in the future, the various measures of performance - characterized by different strategies - leading to different portfolios optimum. Thus, it is intended to examine the best strategy, determining, implicitly, what the composition of portfolio best suited to a specific agent on the market of commodities. The markets analyzed were the coffee market, soybean market, sugar and alcohol market. Financial assets, such as exchange and the Ibovespa Index, are also considered in order to ascertain any differences in behavior of strategies, from peculiarities of the commodities market. The strategies studied were: the minimum- variance, the minimum-variance on the time lifted, the maximum Sharpe index; the maximum expected utility, the minimum extended Gini coefficient; the regression method; the regression method conditional on the set of information, and regression method conditional on the set of information and the time lifted. Although this research considered only static strategies which have since determined the amount of contracts to position itself in the future market, no more changes until the expiration of them, took up a dynamic approach for analysis, assuming that the portfolio could be restructured over time, according to the behavior of the market and will allow an approach closer to reality. The results indicated that strategies have differences, derived from its structure, but did not vary significantly depending on the type of commodity examined. Unable also identify a strategy with superiority than other, or more appropriately, for a specific commodity, from the viewpoint of financial results. The results suggest, however that the selection of a strategy by the investor should consider the trends of the market, opening up space to incorporate this information into the model employed.

University of Macau / Institute of Chinese Medical Sciences

University of Macau / Faculty of Science and Technology / Department of Mathematics

Thesis (MSc (Mathematics))--Stellenbosch University, 2008. / The computation of the greeks of an option is an important aspect of financial mathematics. The information gained from knowing the value of a greek of an option can help investors decide whether or not to hold on to or to sell their options to avoid losses or gain a profit. However, there are technical difficulties that arise from having to do this. Among them is the fact that the mathematical formula for the value some options is complex in nature and evaluating their greeks may be cumber- some. On the other hand the greek might have to be numerically estimated if the option does not posses an explicit evaluation formula. This could be a computationally expensive undertaking. Malliavin calculus offers us a solution to these problems. We can find formula that can be used in combination with Monte Carlo simulations to give results quickly and which are not computationally expensive to obtain and hence give us an degree of accuracy higher that non Malliavin calculus techniques. This thesis will develop the Malliavin calculus tools that will enable us to develop the tools which we will then use to compute the greeks of some known options.

Submitted by Edypo Soares de Oliveira (edyposoares@gmail.com) on 2016-12-21T17:03:50Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Tese FGV MPFE - Edypo Soares eng - 21dec16.pdf: 751881 bytes, checksum: 503843ddee636b0d04d0195201a33270 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Renata de Souza Nascimento (renata.souza@fgv.br) on 2016-12-21T17:08:37Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 Tese FGV MPFE - Edypo Soares eng - 21dec16.pdf: 751881 bytes, checksum: 503843ddee636b0d04d0195201a33270 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2016-12-22T13:14:53Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Tese FGV MPFE - Edypo Soares eng - 21dec16.pdf: 751881 bytes, checksum: 503843ddee636b0d04d0195201a33270 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2016-12-14 / Literature has often examined how hedging affects firm value and cost of capital, but its relation with cost of debt is less studied, especially for Latin American firms. This dissertation examined the impact of derivatives usage over credit spread of the bonds issued by 66 non-financial companies from Brazil, Chile and Mexico, based on the secondary market transactions from 2005 to 2015. To test the hypothesis that hedging reduces credit spread, we performed different regressions based on Chen and King (2014) study. We only found a significant coefficient for hedging and leverage interaction for the post-2008 period, supporting Coutinho, Sheng and Lora (2012) findings that companies were not using derivatives for hedging purpose before the financial crisis and also corroborates Chen and King (2014) hypothesis that more leveraged firms obtain higher benefits from hedging. / Há uma extensa literatura examinando como o uso de derivativos afeta o valor e o custo de capital da firma, porém sua relação com o custo da dívida (spread de crédito) é menos estudada, especialmente para os países da América Latina. Esta dissertação, a partir dos dados do mercado secundário dos títulos (bonds) emitidos por 66 empresas não financeiras de Brasil, Chile e México no período entre 2005 e 2015, analisa o impacto do uso de derivativos sobre o spread de crédito. Para testar a hipótese de que hedging reduz o spread de crédito pago pelas companhias, rodamos diferentes regressões baseadas no estudo de Cheng e King (2014). Encontramos resultados significativos apenas para a interação entre hedging e alavancagem no período posterior a 2008, em linha com o que foi reportado por Coutinho, Sheng e Lora (2012), que investigam a relação entre hedging e custo de capital. Resultado corrobora as hipóteses de que (1) empresas estariam utilizando derivativos para especular antes da Crise Financeira e (2) conforme Chen e King (2014), as empresas mais alavancadas (maior stress financeiro) são as que mais se beneficiam do uso de derivativos.