Thesis (MTech (Internal Auditing))--Cape Peninsula University of Technology, 2015. / Approximately 57% of the total population in South Africa lives under the poverty line. In this regard, Small, Medium and Micro Enterprises (SMMEs) which provide microfinance play a vital role to provide access for poor households to banking-related financial services. This service can only be delivered sustainably through means of deploying effective management practices, especially in terms of risk management. The purpose of this research is to identify risks faced by microfinance SMMEs and to establish the effectiveness of the current risk management practices deployed by them. This study aims at increasing the knowledge base and understanding of risk management practices by conducting a comprehensive literature review and field research. In order to establish a theoretical basis, a comprehensive literature review was performed and prior studies on various aspects relating to microfinance risk management were investigated. This was followed by a field research which studied the risk management of microfinance providers in the Cape Metropole; large financial service providers like commercials banks were excluded. Data were collected by means of a questionnaire from microfinance providers in the Cape Metropole. These microfinance providers were drawn from a list of credit providers that was obtained from the National Credit Regulator (NCR) public domain. A purposive sampling method was used to select the participants for this study. The information provided by participants is kept strictly confidential and anonymity of all respondents was guaranteed. This research noted that collaterals are absent in microfinance and instead, a close connection between microfinance SMMEs and their clients come into place. Risk management frameworks which provide an all-inclusive approach to risk management are largely absent in microfinance SMMEs. Much fewer microfinance SMMEs actively identify risks, categorise, prioritise and document them appropriately. The research further showed that the views on risk management depend on whether the respondent is an owner or a manager of the enterprise.

This thesis explains how China’s banking system has evolved since the establishment of the socialist market economy in 1993, when the state began to develop a more standardised and robust system of banking regulation and commercialise China’s state-owned banks. China’s large state-owned banks, which were technically insolvent in the 1990s, are now some of the biggest commercial banks in the world. There has been a remarkable transformation of systems of governance and risk management across all types of banking institutions. China has developed a system of financial regulation characterised by close supervision and strong regulation of financial institutions to mitigate risk and ensure the banking system serves the real economy. This thesis has relied on qualitative research to understand this change. Interviews of a number of past and present stakeholders in China’s banking system were undertaken, including officials from the China Banking Regulatory Commission, the agency responsible for the regulation and supervision of China’s banking system since 2003. The thesis also makes use of Chinese language texts which provide the views of Chinese political leaders and banking officials with respect to reform of the banking sector. The principal conclusion of the thesis is that the development of China’s banking system can best be understood as an evolution of institutions which reflect historical patterns of political and economic organisation in China. This finding is in contrast with the main body of academic literature which evaluates the development of China’s banking system according to its degree of conformance with a neoliberal economic system. The thesis argues that policy for China’s banking sector was conceived and implemented by officials through a politically united, centrally controlled bureaucracy reflective of China’s bureaucratic tradition. China’s leaders applied the concept of ‘Chinese studies at the base, Western studies for practical use’ (中體西用zhongti xiyong), when adapting Western ideas and technology within China’s traditional political and economic system to modernise the banking sector. The deep concern of officials for financial stability caused them to gradually and pragmatically adopt international standards of financial regulation and resist policies of financial liberalisation and deregulation which were advocated by self-interested Western-educated bankers and government officials.

The volatility of stock markets has important implications for investment decision making, financial stability and overall macroeconomic stability. This study examines the risk-return relationship as well as the behaviour of volatility of the South African equity markets using both aggregate, industrial level and sector level data. The study is divided into three parts. The first part investigates the behaviour of volatility in each of the industries, sectors and the benchmark series focussing on whether volatility is symmetric or asymmetric. Subsequently we investigate which, among the GARCH family of models appropriately captured the riskreturn relationship under which distributional assumption. The second part examines the riskreturn relationship on the SA stock market. The third part examines the long term trend of volatility and whether volatility significantly increases during financial crises and during major global shocks. The GARCH-M, EGARCH-M and TARCH-M models under the Gaussian, Student –t and the GED are used. The findings this study makes are as follows: firstly, there is no clear relationship between risk and return. Secondly, volatility is asymmetrical, implying that bad news has a greater effect on volatility than good news in the South African equity market. Thirdly, the TARCH-M model under the GED was found to be the most appropriate model. Fourthly, volatility increases during financial crises and major global shocks. Overall, volatility is generally not priced on the South African equity markets. Thus, both local and international investors need to consider other factors that influence returns such as skewness. The general increase in volatility during financial crises and major global shocks poses a major concern for policy makers as this may cause financial instability. Thus policy makers need to be mindful of the behaviour of volatility in the South African equity market in response to external shocks.

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The world has become one small global village. This is a result of globalisation, the advancement in technology and many other contributing factors. Economic incidents and outlook in Europe, Asia and America have a direct and immediate impact on the developing countries and Africa in particular. Positive economic growth in Africa’s major trading partners has direct positive implications on Africa’s economy. Negative economic growth in Africa’s major trading partners has undesirable consequences on Africa’s economy. As a developing country with a diversified economy which mainly relies on exports and imports, South Africa’s economy is at the forefront of this economic risk. Globalisation has effectively resulted in the Republic of South African’s (RSA) export driven tank container industry being at direct economic and financial risk from global financial melt downs, volatile exchange rates, fluctuating steel prices, souring labour costs, and more importantly competitiveness risk. In the history of the industrial era, never has it been more important to have and maintain a competitive advantage. This is achieved through, inter alia, the development and successful implementation of a competitive strategy. A competitive advantage assists an organisation to financially survive, expand its operations, grow market share and achieve set corporate objectives and goals. A successful organisation has a massive social impact and economic contribution in a country. It is therefore no surprise that the field of competitive strategy has received vast academic interest. Amidst the ever changing world and markets, a competitive strategy needs to be fine-tuned, revised and reinvented. What has worked in the past will not ensure tomorrow success. The purpose of this research treatise is to investigate the factors that led to a sustained competitive advantage for a tank container manufacturer. This was achieved by applying various scientific methodologies. A case study approach was used as the most appropriate research methodology for this study. This approach entailed the use of a phenomenological paradigm. An extensive literature review on competitiveness and of strategy formulation and implementation was conducted, which has led to the development of research propositions. The study entailed a case study of a single tank container manufacturer in the RSA. The study contributes positively to the academic field of competitiveness and to the existing academic body of knowledge. It also makes a positive contribution to tank container manufacturing academic literature on competitiveness and organisational strategy formulation and strategy implementation.

Purpose - The study sought to examine the liquidity linkages between the South African bond and equity markets before the global financial crisis in 2008. Design/methodology/approach: The window of observation covered the period January 2000 to September 2008. In order to ensure robustness in the estimation, the study used foreign participation in the various markets as an additional measure of liquidity. The other liquidity measures considered in the study were volume and value traded of the various securities respectively. Time series modeling techniques were used in the estimation. An unrestricted vector autoregressive (VAR) model was estimated following which the standard innovation accounting techniques, impulse response functions and forecast error variance decompositions were applied. In the empirical analysis, the Granger-causality between the two markets was also used. Findings - While all the liquidity measures suggest the existence of linkages between the bond and equity markets, the direction of causality was found to be unidirectional from equity to the bond market using the volume and value measures. On the other hand, the foreign participation measure of liquidity suggests bi-directional causality. The study also provides evidence of long run relationship between key macroeconomic variables such as inflation, exchange rate and interest rate on one hand and liquidity in the debt and equity markets on the other. As empirical findings indicates that the linkages in liquidity between these markets positive, this consistent with studies conducted by Chordia et al (2003 & 2005) and Engsted and Tanggaard (2000) who found the relationship was a positive one. When volumes of trade and trade values, the study find evidence on uni-directional causality and strong bi-directional causality is evidence when foreign investor participation is used as a liquidity measure. In summary, there is a strong evidence liquidity linkage between the bond and equity market from the empirical results.

This dissertation studies topics in financial economics. In the first chapter, The Corporate Supply of (Quasi) Safe Assets, I examine whether the demand for safe assets affects nonfinancial corporations in the US. Investors value safety services in financial assets, such as the ability to serve as a store of value, to serve as collateral, or to meet mandatory capital and liquidity requirements. I present a model in which investors value safety services not only in traditional safe assets such as US Treasuries, but also in corporate debt. Shareholders thus maximize the value of the firm by complementing standard business operations with safe asset creation. Based on this theoretical framework, I use the CDS-bond basis to derive a measurement of the safety premium of corporate bonds. I document substantial cross sectional variation in the safety premium of corporate bonds, which allows me to test the model’s predictions. I show that a high safety premium leads toa marked increase in debt issuance by relatively safer firms. These debt proceeds have a small impact on real investment and are largely used instead for equity payouts. This mechanism can explain why, in the aftermath of the financial crisis, non-financial investment grade companies significantly increased their debt issuance and equity payout while investment remained weak. The second chapter, The Cross-Section of Risk and Return, focuses on a common practice in the finance literature which is to create characteristic portfolios by sorting on characteristics associated with average returns. We show that the resultant portfolios are likely to capture not only the priced risk associated with the characteristic but also unpriced risk. We develop a procedure to remove this unpriced risk using covariance information estimated from past returns. We apply our methodology to the five Fama-French characteristic portfolios. The squared Sharpe ratio of the optimal combination of the resultant characteristic efficient portfolios is 2.13, compared with 1.17 for the original characteristic portfolios. In the third chapter, Should Information be Sold Separately? Evidence from MiFID II, we examine whether selling information separately improves its production. We use a recent regulation in Europe (MiFID II) that unbundles research from transactions to investigate this question. We show that unbundling causes fewer research analysts to cover a firm. This decrease does not come from small- or mid-cap firms but is concentrated in large firms. Contrary to conventional wisdom, the reduction in the coverage quantity is accompanied by an increase in the coverage quality. Further analyses suggest that the enhancement of analyst competition could drive the results: inaccurate analysts drop out (extensive margin) and analysts who stay produce better-quality research (intensive margin). Our findings suggest that selling information separately improves information quality at the cost of reducing information quantity.

The purpose of this study is to describe the financial risk tolerance of young swedish residents, which factors that affect their financial risk tolerance, and how their risk tolerance affects their investment behavior. Previous studies within the subject of financial risk tolerance have focused on a wider range of ages, and most of the studies have been made on an American population. This study also contributes with more factors in the same study than many previous studies. The factors included in this research are Gender, degree of education, relationship status, income, mood, birth order, future economic expectations, and financial knowledge. The research contains a quantitative study, where the data have been collected with a survey. The study has a deductive approach, which means that the study starts with theory and moves on with empiricism and hypotheses. The hypotheses have been developed from the results of earlier studies. The survey was dedicated to young Swedish residents in the ages of 18 to 30 years old. There were 123 respondents who answered the survey, which contained 24 questions. To measure the risk tolerance of young swedish residents, the Grable and Lytton’s Risk Tolerance Scale have been used. The result of the study tells us that the financial risk tolerance of young swedish residents are affected by the factors: Gender, future expectations on the stock market and financial knowledge. The study also tells us that there is a significant different in financial risk tolerance between young swedish residents who invest in stocks, compared to those who do not invest in stocks.

Value-at-Risk (VaR) model fails to predict financial risk accurately especially during financial crises. This is mainly due to the model’s inability to calibrate new market information and the fact that the risk measure is characterised by poor tail risk quantification. An alternative approach which comprises of the Expected Shortfall measure and the Lognormal Jump-Diffusion (LJD) model has been developed to address the aforementioned shortcomings of VaR. This model is called the Simulated-Expected-Shortfall (SES) model. The Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) approach is used in determining the parameters of the LJD model since it’s more reliable and authenticable when compared to other nonconventional parameters estimation approaches mentioned in other literature studies. These parameters are then plugged into the LJD model, which is simulated multiple times in generating the new loss dataset used in the developed model. This SES model is statistically conservative when compared to peers which means it’s more reliable in predicting financial risk especially during a financial crisis. / Statistics / M.Sc. (Statistics)

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