Master of Science / Department of Agricultural Economics / Ted C. Schroeder / Considerable risk is present in today’s ranching world; especially price and production risk. A producer who can tolerate more risk, and is knowledgeable about how to effectively manage price and production risk, may have opportunity to increase profitability relative to a highly risk averse producer. The purpose of this study is to investigate perceptions and sources of risk, identify how risk management is conducted, assess price and production risks, and view differences between producers’ perceptions versus their attitudes towards risk and factors that affect risk. In order to investigate cow-calf producers’ perceptions of risk, an instrument was created to survey beef cow-calf producers in the Kansas Farm Management Association (KFMA). Respondents provided information on their production practices, marketing methods, operating decisions and risk related to their cow-calf operations. A risk preference score for individual producers was developed from specific survey questions to determine three objectives: to classify producers’ risk preferences related to their operating decisions; determine operating decisions that affect risk preferences; and identify what production and marketing practices in which producers were willing to risk for a chance to increase the net returns to their operations. A bi-directional causality between risk aversion and operation characteristics was illustrated between how operating decisions are related to risk aversion, and risk aversion is related to operating decisions. Factors that were found to influence risk aversion were socioeconomic factors such as age, off-farm income, debt-to-asset ratio, farm size, and number of cows owned, as well as comparative advantages of producer’s: use and analysis of new technology, business planning skills and marketing skills. Models showing how risk aversion was related to production management focused on producer’s financial soundness, production practices and marketing methods, specific to retained ownership. Producers who would participate in value-added programs to increase returns to their operation have a comparative advantage in marketing skills, own more cattle, and are less diversified in terms of their farm enterprise incomes.

Corporate governance models segregate the role of risk manager and risk taker to allow for independent challenge of risk-related decisions. Numerous studies have demonstrated that broad personality traits predict risk-related behaviour. While prospect theory revealed a natural preference towards risk-taking in a negative risk frame, studies have also shown the influence of personality traits on risk preference. We investigated the less reported subject of the potential influence of risk stakeholder personality on risk decision making in the corporate environment. We expected to observe that the personality traits of risk takers and risk managers will differ as a consequence of occupational self-selection. Further, we expected that such personality differences will produce disparate risk preferences between risk takers and risk managers, supporting the governance expectation of independent challenge of risk-related decisions. A sample of investment banking risk stakeholders (n = 100) completed the HEXACO–PI–R as well as a vignette-based risky choice questionnaire involving positively and negatively framed financial risk scenarios. We found homogeneity in personality traits between risk takers and risk managers but observed a noticeable bias toward risk-taking in the negative frame by risk managers. High Honesty–Humility and Conscientiousness scores in both groups may negate the risk of irresponsible risk-taking or undesirable risk behaviour. The results of this study confirm the importance of personality screening for job applicants and should also alert risk practitioners to potential weaknesses in the independent challenge of risk-related decisions as a result of personality homogeneity among risk stakeholders.

Corporate governance models segregate the role of risk manager and risk taker to allow for independent challenge of risk-related decisions. Numerous studies have demonstrated that broad personality traits predict risk-related behaviour. While prospect theory revealed a natural preference towards risk-taking in a negative risk frame, studies have also shown the influence of personality traits on risk preference. We investigated the less reported subject of the potential influence of risk stakeholder personality on risk decision making in the corporate environment. We expected to observe that the personality traits of risk takers and risk managers will differ as a consequence of occupational self-selection. Further, we expected that such personality differences will produce disparate risk preferences between risk takers and risk managers, supporting the governance expectation of independent challenge of risk-related decisions. A sample of investment banking risk stakeholders (n = 100) completed the HEXACO–PI–R as well as a vignette-based risky choice questionnaire involving positively and negatively framed financial risk scenarios. We found homogeneity in personality traits between risk takers and risk managers but observed a noticeable bias toward risk-taking in the negative frame by risk managers. High Honesty–Humility and Conscientiousness scores in both groups may negate the risk of irresponsible risk-taking or undesirable risk behaviour. The results of this study confirm the importance of personality screening for job applicants and should also alert risk practitioners to potential weaknesses in the independent challenge of risk-related decisions as a result of personality homogeneity among risk stakeholders.

<p>Companies need capital in order to run their business, do necessary investments and grow larger. These actions are combined with high costs where both internal and external financing might be appropriate. Capital structure is the relation between debt and equity.</p><p>In this thesis we have focused on the decision behind the capital structure. We have focused on the road freight industry and we have tried to find out how management reason about their decision. The purpose of this thesis is therefore to describe and analyze SMEs’ decision of capital structure within the road freight sector in the Jönköping region. Emphasise is put on the different aspects that influence the capital structure decision and to what extent this is a strategic issue coloured by personal beliefs.</p><p>To fulfill the purpose mainly a qualitative approach with primary data from structured interviews has been used. The interviews were conducted face-to-face with six owner and/or managers. Further on, secondary data from the firms’ annual reports were used and analyzed.</p><p>The pecking order theory explains that firms, especially SMEs, prefer to finance their businesses with internally generated funds. Focus of the theoretical part are on theories of what factors that affects the capital structure decision, how this can be argued to be a strategic question for SMEs, how risk affects the capital structure decision and how this decision is made in a family business. These theories are presented to shed light on the capital structure decision making process of SMEs.</p><p>From this study it is found that the majority of the companies’ prefer internal financing i.e. reinvested earnings, and as a second alternative to use debt in form of bank loans. The study also shows that the reasons behind this preferred order are the will of being independent, previous experience and managements’ risk-taking propensity. We believe that these factors combined with beliefs about debt and realized need for debt works as a base for how a capital structure strategy is discussed, formed and developed. From this study it can also be concluded that risk indirect affects the capital structure decision and that a restrictive view on debt leads to a restrictive desire to grow since a fast growth in most cases needs to be financed by debt. Last, the study concludes that even though the studied firms prefer to finance with retained earnings they all use debt more or less.</p>

Dans cette Thèse, trois cas pratiques sont étudiées dans le domaine de la gestion des fonds où les risques d’investissement semblent mal perçus du fait d’ambiguïtés dans la mesure de risque. Ces ambiguïtés sont analysées comme une erreur élémentaire où une trop forte simplification de la réalité qui peut aboutir à une approche confuse. Les trois études sont développées dans un contexte usuel d’investissement, et portent sur les actions pour la première, sur les obligations pour la seconde et sur les devises pour la troisième. Elles s’inscrivent dans les conventions traditionnelles de la théorie de la finance. Les trois études, qui font l’objet de chapitres distincts, montrent comment la perception de risque peut être troublée dès les premiers traitements des données financières et avant même une éventuelle évaluation des risques. Plusieurs mesures de risque, pourtant courantes dans la finance, apparaissent réductrices ou mal adaptées aux circonstances dans lesquelles elles sont utilisées. Nous décrivons comment, dans certains cas, des mauvaises décisions d’investissement peuvent être prises du fait d’erreur de mesure, ou comment dans d’autres cas le débat dans la littérature économique a été orienté vers de mauvaises directions. Les études soulignent que l’appréciation des risques financiers est loin d’être triviale, même dans les domaines habituellement considérés comme maîtrisés. Une approche systématique a été adoptée pour établir à quel moment précis les analyses intègrent une mauvaise perception du risque. / Three situations are studied in the field of fund management where investment risk may be misperceived due to an ambiguity in the way risk is being measured. The case studies involve equity, bonds and currencies respectively, and are inscribed in the traditional conventions of finance theory. It is shown how the perception of risk can fail immediately in the initial data processing stage even before a propoer analysis. Several risk measures that are frequently used in finance are shown to be defunct or badly adapted for the circumstances in which they tend to be used. We described how in certain cases sub-optimal investment decisions are taken based on an error in measurement, or how in certain cases the debate in the economic literature has been disorientated. The studies underline that the appreciation of financial risk is far from trivial, even in the realms that are generally considered as well-established.

This thesis focuses on applying order-statistics-based inferences on lifetime analysis and financial risk measurement. The first problem is raised from fitting the Weibull distribution to progressively censored and accelerated life-test data. A new orderstatistics- based inference is proposed for both parameter and con dence interval estimation. The second problem can be summarised as adopting the inference used in the first problem for fitting the generalised Pareto distribution, especially when sample size is small. With some modifications, the proposed inference is compared with classical methods and several relatively new methods emerged from recent literature. The third problem studies a distribution free approach for forecasting financial volatility, which is essentially the standard deviation of financial returns. Classical models of this approach use the interval between two symmetric extreme quantiles of the return distribution as a proxy of volatility. Two new models are proposed, which use intervals of expected shortfalls and expectiles, instead of interval of quantiles. Different models are compared with empirical stock indices data. Finally, attentions are drawn towards the heteroskedasticity quantile regression. The proposed joint modelling approach, which makes use of the parametric link between the quantile regression and the asymmetric Laplace distribution, can provide estimations of the regression quantile and of the log linear heteroskedastic scale simultaneously. Furthermore, the use of the expectation of the check function as a measure of quantile deviation is discussed.

The purpose is to investigate whether there are any significant differences in risk                                                             tolerance in equity investments between the genders. Further, the study intends to                                                        investigate wether independent factors such as age, income, education and                                                                  confidence effects the risk tolerance of an individual.Method: The study has adapted a combination of qualitative and quantitative methods. The                                                      primary data has been collected through surveys and semi-structured interviews.                                                           The adopted research approach  is deductive and the study population consists of                                                                men and women in Sweden, which are or have been active equity investors. Theory: Describes the concept of risk tolerance in financial decisions. The theory further                                                             explains an individual’s descisionprocess in relation to risk, with its overvaluation                                                         to a positive probability and its undervaluation to a negative risk. Further, a                                                     several factors are explained and discussed that influence an individual’s risk                                                        tolerance. Conclusion: Differences in risktolerance between the genders has been proved. Furthermore,                                                             the influence of the factors age, income and education are statistically proved.                                                                Finally the impact of self confidence were proven through qualitative data. / Syfte: Syftet är att undersöka om det finns några signifikanta skillnader i riskbenägenhet                                                        vid aktieplacering mellan könen. Vidare ämnar studien undersöka om oberoende                                                           faktorer som ålder, inkomst, utbildning och självförtroende påverkar                                                                        riskbenägenheten hos en individ. Metod: Studien har antagit en kombination av kvalitativ och kvantitativ metod.                                                                         Primärdata har således samlats in via enkätundersökningar samt delvis                                                                           strukturerade intervjuer. Studiens sekundärdata består av tidigare forskning.                                            Forskningsansatsen som antagits är deduktiv och studiens population utgörs av                                                  män och kvinnor i Sverige, vilka är eller någon gång har varit aktiva                                                                         aktieplacerare. Teori: Beskriver begreppet riskbenägenhet vid finansiella beslut. Även teori som                                                                         förklarar en individs beslutsprocess i förhållande till risk, med dess                                                                                   övervärderingar till en positiv sannolikhet och dess undervärdering till en negativ                                                          risk. Vidare förklaras och diskuteras ett flertal faktorer som påverkar en individs                                                           riskbenägenhet. Slutsats: Skillnad i riskbenägenhet mellan könen har påvisats. Vidare har påverkan från                                                                faktorerna ålder, inkomst och utbildning statistiskt bevisats. Avslutningsvis                                             bevisades självförtroendes påverkan genom kvalitativ data.

This thesis provides the empirical analysis of the second Basel regulatory framework implementation in Czech banks together with the economic performance inspection of the Czech banking sector. With Basel II, banks face the possibility to implement internal models to calculate capital adequacy related to bank's risk exposure. This possibility opens a discussion of its economic effect, transparency and potential misuse of the internal models. The empirical part of this thesis examines how the profitability and the reported riskiness change with internal models implementation. Furthermore, the role of cost efficiency to bank's profitability and risk adequacy ratio is evaluated. The panel data analysis of all Czech banks over a period 2006 to 2012 demonstrates that internal models for capital adequacy calculation increase bank's profitability together with a decrease of the reported riskiness measured by risk weighted assets. Moreover, the cost efficiency has proven to be a significant indicator of both profitability and capital adequacy ratio.

The issue of risk management in banks has become the centre of debate after the recent financial crises. Several efforts have been made to improve the risk management and performance of banks including introducing the Basel Accords as well as risk management guidelines by central banks. Consequently, the State Bank of Pakistan has issued risk management guidelines to strengthen the risk management system and to improve the performance of the local banks. However, the available literature in Pakistani context fails to explain the impact of these efforts on the performance of banks. The purpose of this study is to empirically examine the effectiveness of risk management processes and their relationship with the performance of banks. This study reviews the relevant literature on banking risk management from diverse methodological strands and synthesises its conclusions to make an addition to the available knowledge; particularly to address certain research gaps regarding risk management and performance of banks in developing countries, specifically in Pakistan. Owing to its empirical nature, the current research adopts a deductive reasoning approach in terms of theory testing. This study applies a mixed method research strategy by taking the quantitative method as the major component, while the qualitative method plays a supplementary role. The sample is composed of twenty banks in Pakistan and the stratification is performed according to the bank category (public, private and foreign) in respect of different strata. The study collects and analyses primary as well as secondary data. This research is carried out in three phases. In the first phase a qualitative system dynamics model (Causal Loop Diagram) is developed based upon interview data analysis to understand and document the behaviour of risk management systems of Pakistani banks. In the second phase, this research conducts questionnaire data analysis by using ordinary least-squares regression to assess the different aspects risk management practices of banks in Pakistan. Finally, two-stage data envelopment analysis technique has been adopted to examine the relationship between the risk management and performance of the selected banks. This study results reflect that it is very important for Pakistani banks to formulate an active risk management process to identify, measure, monitor and control different risks. These results further reveal that formation of a comprehensive risk management system is not only a useful practice to meet the regulatory requirements but an effective exercise to improve the performance of Pakistani banks also. By employing a pragmatic, embedded, mixed method research strategy, this study has created a new insight into risk management in local banks and extends the existing theoretical literature in the field of banking in various ways.

Submitted in fulfillment of the requirements of the degree of Doctor of Technology: Business Administration, Durban University of Technology, Durban, South Africa, 2014. / The performance of portfolios of a fixed-rate asset and a risky asset of major companies in a South African market index the FTSE/JSE with strategies which rebalances fixed proportions of wealth in every rebalancing period is analysed in a long term. Recent findings in portfolio management theory by Dempster, Evstigneev and Schenk-Hoppé (2010, 2008, 2007, 2003) and by Browne (1988) note optimality of fixed-mix portfolios which assert fast exponential growth in stationary markets. A quantitative analysis is performed to analyse quantifiable measures in order to optimize the application of self-financing constant rebalanced portfolio strategies that contribute to the financial engineered prospects suggested by Dempster et al. (2010) for fixed-mix portfolios. The comparative performance of fixed-mix portfolios with a proxy strategy and without proxy strategy relative to a buy and hold strategy shows the superiority of fixed-mix portfolios in generic market conditions. The research extends the utilization of constant rebalanced self-financing portfolio investment strategies by assessing the market price of risk under the mean-variance model of Markowitz (1952). Effective implementation tactics of the strategy are examined by focusing on the market risk and the financial risk. The frequent reversals and trending of stochastic asset prices in the financial market are analysed to adjust the market price of risk by considering tradable financial securities to determine the financial proxy of de-trending. The proxy hypothesis which evaluates the stationary financial condition in a fixed-mix portfolio is validated by an option-based myopic strategy using a lookback straddle option. A myopic strategy is a strategy which considers a single period ahead, Fabozzi, Forcardi and Kolm (2006). The realised growth under a financial proxy is found to have a linear strategic asset allocation with a low degree of concavity relative to a buy and hold performance in the market risk of self-financing portfolio strategies. / D