In survival analysis interest often lies in the relationship between the survival function and a certain number of covariates. It usually happens that for some individuals we cannot observe the event of interest, due to the presence of right censoring and/or left truncation. A typical example is given by a retrospective medical study, in which one is interested in the time interval between birth and death due to a certain disease. Patients who die of the disease at early age will rarely have entered the study before death and are therefore left truncated. On the other hand, for patients who are alive at the end of the study, only a lower bound of the true survival time is known and these patients are hence right censored. In the case of censored and/or truncated responses, lots of models exist in the literature that describe the relationship between the survival function and the covariates (proportional hazards model or Cox model, log-logistic model, accelerated failure time model, additive risks model, etc.). In these models, the regression coefficients are usually supposed to be constant over time. In practice, the structure of the data might however be more complex, and it might therefore be better to consider coefficients that can vary over time. In the previous examples, certain covariates (e.g. age at diagnosis, type of surgery, extension of tumor, etc.) can have a relatively high impact on early age survival, but a lower influence at higher age. This motivated a number of authors to extend the Cox model to allow for time-dependent coefficients or consider other type of time-dependent coefficients models like the additive hazards model. In practice it is of great use to have at hand a method to check the validity of the above mentioned models. First we consider a very general model, which includes as special cases the above mentioned models (Cox model, additive model, log-logistic model, linear transformation models, etc.) with time-dependent coefficients and study the parameter estimation by means of a least squares approach. The response is allowed to be subject to right censoring and/or left truncation. Secondly we propose an omnibus goodness-of-fit test that will test if the general time-dependent model considered above fits the data. A bootstrap version, to approximate the critical values of the test is also proposed. In this dissertation, for each proposed method, the finite sample performance is evaluated in a simulation study and then applied to a real data set.

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<p>Nearly one-third of the world&rsquo / s tortoises live in South Africa, but little is known about their habitat requirements and feeding ecology. Chersina angulata, the angulate tortoise, is endemic to&nbsp / southern Africa, with a wide distribution along the western and southern coasts. Because this tortoise occupies a number of different habitat types, it has always been considered a generalist&nbsp / herbivore, although little is known about its&nbsp / diet and other needs. This study evaluates the habitat characteristics and feeding ecology of C. angulata at two study sites in the southwestern&nbsp / &nbsp / &nbsp / Cape, the West Coast National Park (WCNP) and Dassen Island (DI). The WCNP is a large conserved area in the Fynbos biome, along the southwestern coast of South Africa, whereas DI is a&nbsp / small offshore island with low floral and faunal diversity, just south of the WCNP. The efficacy of three methods used to study the feeding ecology of herbivores, focal observations, macroscopic faecal analysis and histological analysis of scats, was evaluated. Plant cover, species diversity, and the variety of growth forms were substantially larger at the WCNP than on DI.&nbsp / In the WCNP, shrubs and grasses were the dominant growth forms but the vegetation also included herbs, succulents, restios, sedges and parasitic plants. A few perennial species such as&nbsp / the grass Ehrharta villosa, shrubs such as Helichrysum niveum, Nylandtia spinosa and Rhus spp., and succulents such as Carpobrotus edulis and Ruschia spp., provided most of the plant&nbsp / cover. DI had a depauperate flora, consisting of succulents and herbs, and ephemeral plants contributed more than perennials did to plant cover throughout the year. The succulents Mesembryanthemum crystallinum and Tetragonia fruticosa provided most of the cover on DI. Angulate tortoises are herbivores and 72 diet plants in 32 plant families were identified to the&nbsp / species or genus level. Several diet species, however, could not be identified. In&nbsp / addition to angiosperms, the tortoises&rsquo / diet included mosses, mushrooms, insects,snails and animal faeces.&nbsp / The most important growth forms in the diet were herbs and grasses. The diet of the WCNP tortoises was more diverse than the diet of DI tortoises, but the number of principal food items in&nbsp / the diet did not differ between the two sites. Over an annual cycle, WCNP tortoises had four principal food plants while DI tortoises had five principal food plants. At both sites, principal food&nbsp / &nbsp / plants changed with the season and few plants remained principal food items in more than one season. Cynodon dactylon was a principal food item in three of the four seasons in the WCNP, whereas Trachyandra divaricata was a principal food plant each season on DI. Most principal food plants were grass or herb species but the sedge Ficinia nigrescens, and a succulent that&nbsp / could be identified only to the family level (Aizoaceae), featured strongly in the spring diets of DI and WCNP tortoises, respectively.&nbsp / The three study methods did not provide the same type or quality of information about the feeding ecology of angulate tortoises. The small size and wary nature of angulate tortoises compromised focal studies because it was often not possible to see&nbsp / what the tortoises ate. This method, however, provided the interesting observation that rabbit&nbsp / faecal pellets contributed nearly 30% to summer and autumn diets on DI when food was scarce.&nbsp / Rabbit faeces may not only provide a source of nutrients but may also supplement the microflora, required to digest cellulose, in the tortoises&rsquo / guts. Macroscopic evaluation of the tortoises&rsquo / &nbsp / scats appeared to be an ineffective method to identify diet plants, and the bulk of the scat mass could not be identified. This indicates&nbsp / that angulate tortoises either selected food low in fibrous&nbsp / content or that the digestive system of the tortoises dealt efficiently with tough plant material. The macroscopic method was the only method that highlighted the large contribution of&nbsp / fruits / seeds to the diet of angulate tortoises. Since the tortoises digested many seeds only partially, or not at all, C. angulata is potentially an important agent of seed dispersal in the southwestern Cape. The macroscopic study showed that on DI, sand made up 28% of the scat mass in spring, whereas sand never made a substantial contribution to the scat composition of WCNP tortoises. Lithophagy may be an important strategy in a depauperate habitat, such as DI, because the abrasive action of sand may help with the digestion of tough plants, or the sand may&nbsp / provide the tortoises with important minerals that are deficient in their food plants.The histological analysis of scats provided the most comprehensive diet list for C. angulata. Selection indices&nbsp / based on data from the histological analysis indicated that angulate tortoises were highly selective in their food choice. Most of the principal food items were selected out of proportion to their&nbsp / availability and the tortoises avoided the most abundant plants in their habitats. Several factors, such as palatability, accessibility and profitability, may have influenced their food choice. The proportional similarity indices for WCNP and DI tortoises, respectively, were 0.31 and 0.16, confirming that C. angulata is a food specialist and not a food generalist as was previously thought. This factor should be considered in the management of this species and in future conservation planning of its habitat.&nbsp / &nbsp / </p>

For decades, structural engineers have been using various conventional design approaches for assessing the strength and stability of framed structures for various loads. Today, engineers are still designing without some critical information to insure that their stability assessment yields a safe design for the life of the structure with consideration for extreme loads. Presented in this thesis is new critical information provided from the study of stability analysis and design of steel framed structures accounting for extreme loads associated to load patterns that may be experienced during their lifetime. It is conducted in five main parts. A literature survey is first carried out reviewing the previous research of analyzing frame stability including the consideration of initial geometric imperfections, and also evaluating research of the analysis and design of the increased usage of cold-formed steel (CFS) storage racks. Secondly, the elastic buckling loads for single-storey unbraced steel frames subjected to variable loading is extended to multi-storey unbraced steel frames. The formulations and procedures are developed for the multi-storey unbraced steel frames subjected to variable loading using the storey-based buckling method. Numerical examples are presented as comparisons to the conventional proportional loading approach and to demonstrate the effect of connection rigidity on the maximum and minimum frame-buckling loads. Thirdly, the lateral stiffness of axially loaded columns in unbraced frames accounting for initial geometric imperfections is derived based on the storey-based buckling. A practical method of evaluating column effective length factor with explicit accounting for the initial geometric imperfections is developed and examined using numerical examples. The fourth part is an investigation of the stability for multi-storey unbraced steel frames under variable loading with accounting for initial geometric imperfections. Finally, the stability of CFS storage racks is studied. The effective length factor of CFS storage racks with accounting for the semi-rigid nature of the beam-to-column connections of such structures are evaluated based on experimental data. A parametric study on maximum and minimum frame-buckling loads with or without accounting for initial geometric imperfections is conducted. The proposed stability analysis of multi-storey unbraced frames subjected to variable loading takes into consideration the volatility of live loads during the life span of structures and frame buckling characteristics of the frames under any possible load pattern. From the proposed method, the maximum and minimum frame-buckling loads together with their associated load patterns provides critical information to clearly define the stability capacities of frames under extreme loads. This critical information in concern for the stability of structures is generally not available through a conventional proportional loading analysis. This study of work ends with an appropriate set of conclusions.

This paper investigates the relationship between ethnic conflict, electoral systems, and power sharing in ethnically divided societies. The cases of Guyana, Fiji, Sri Lanka, Lebanon, Mauritius, and Trinidad and Tobago are considered. Electoral systems are denoted based on presidential versus parliamentary system, and on proportional representation versus majoritarian/plurality. The paper concludes that, while electoral systems are important, other factors like the power distribution between ethnic groups, and ensuring a non-zero-sum game may be as important.

For decades, structural engineers have been using various conventional design approaches for assessing the strength and stability of framed structures for various loads. Today, engineers are still designing without some critical information to insure that their stability assessment yields a safe design for the life of the structure with consideration for extreme loads. Presented in this thesis is new critical information provided from the study of stability analysis and design of steel framed structures accounting for extreme loads associated to load patterns that may be experienced during their lifetime. It is conducted in five main parts. A literature survey is first carried out reviewing the previous research of analyzing frame stability including the consideration of initial geometric imperfections, and also evaluating research of the analysis and design of the increased usage of cold-formed steel (CFS) storage racks. Secondly, the elastic buckling loads for single-storey unbraced steel frames subjected to variable loading is extended to multi-storey unbraced steel frames. The formulations and procedures are developed for the multi-storey unbraced steel frames subjected to variable loading using the storey-based buckling method. Numerical examples are presented as comparisons to the conventional proportional loading approach and to demonstrate the effect of connection rigidity on the maximum and minimum frame-buckling loads. Thirdly, the lateral stiffness of axially loaded columns in unbraced frames accounting for initial geometric imperfections is derived based on the storey-based buckling. A practical method of evaluating column effective length factor with explicit accounting for the initial geometric imperfections is developed and examined using numerical examples. The fourth part is an investigation of the stability for multi-storey unbraced steel frames under variable loading with accounting for initial geometric imperfections. Finally, the stability of CFS storage racks is studied. The effective length factor of CFS storage racks with accounting for the semi-rigid nature of the beam-to-column connections of such structures are evaluated based on experimental data. A parametric study on maximum and minimum frame-buckling loads with or without accounting for initial geometric imperfections is conducted. The proposed stability analysis of multi-storey unbraced frames subjected to variable loading takes into consideration the volatility of live loads during the life span of structures and frame buckling characteristics of the frames under any possible load pattern. From the proposed method, the maximum and minimum frame-buckling loads together with their associated load patterns provides critical information to clearly define the stability capacities of frames under extreme loads. This critical information in concern for the stability of structures is generally not available through a conventional proportional loading analysis. This study of work ends with an appropriate set of conclusions.

Active safety systems for road vehicles have been improved considerably in recent years along with technological advances and the increasing demand for road safety. In the development route of active safety systems which started with introduction of digital controlled ABS in the late seventies, vehicle stability control systems have been developed which today, with an integration approach, incorporate ABS and other previously developed active safety technologies. ABS, as a main part of this new structure, still maintains its importance. In this thesis, a design methodology of an antilock braking system controller for four wheeled road vehicles is presented with a detailed simulation work. In the study, it is intended to follow a flexible approach for integration with unified control structure of an integrated active safety system. The objective of the ABS controller, as in the previous designs in literature, is basically to provide retention of vehicle directional control capability and if possible shorter braking distances by controlling the wheel slip during braking. iv A hierarchical structure was adopted for the ABS controller design. A high-level controller, through vehicle longitudinal acceleration based estimation, determines reference slip values and a low-level controller attempts to track these reference slip signals by modulating braking torques. Two control alternatives were offered for the design of the low-level controller: Fuzzy Logic Control and PID Control. Performance of the ABS controller was analyzed through extensive simulations conducted in MATLAB/Simulink for different road conditions and steering maneuvers. For simulations, an 8 DOF vehicle model was constructed with nonlinear tires.

The main purpose of this study was to investigate the effect of creative drama based instruction on seventh grade students&rsquo / achievement in ratio and proportion concepts and their attitudes toward mathematics. Another purpose of this study was to investigate students&rsquo / self-reported views related to creative drama based instruction. The study was conducted in a public school in K&ouml / rfez-Kocaeli with a total of 58 seventh grade students, lasting 12 lesson hours (three weeks). Thirty of the participants received Creative Drama Based Instruction (CDBI), and twenty-eight received Traditional Instruction (TI). The data were collected through Ratio and Proportion Achievement Test (RPAT), Mathematics Attitude Scale (MAS), and interviews. The RPAT and MAS were administered as both pretest and posttest. In addition, interviews were conducted with the ten randomly selected students. The quantitative analyses were carried out by using One-Way Analysis of Covariance (ANCOVA) with covariate preRPAT and dependent variable postRPAT at the significance level 0.05. Moreover, independent samples t-test was performed on gain scores of MAS. The results of the study indicated that there was a statistically significant mean difference between the students who received creative drama based instruction and traditional instruction in terms of achievement in ratio and proportion concepts and in terms of gain scores of attitudes toward mathematics, in favor of CDBI. Furthermore, according to the interview responses of the experimental group students, significantly better performance of the experimental group students was attributable to the potential of the creative drama based instruction to provide actively involvement, work with friends and collaboratively and providing selfawareness.

Selection of signi?cant genes via expression patterns is important in a microarray problem. Owing to small sample size and large number of variables (genes), the selection process can be unstable. This research proposes a hierarchical Bayesian model for gene (variable) selection. We employ latent variables in a regression setting and use a Bayesian mixture prior to perform the variable selection. Due to the binary nature of the data, the posterior distributions of the parameters are not in explicit form, and we need to use a combination of truncated sampling and Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) based computation techniques to simulate the posterior distributions. The Bayesian model is ?exible enough to identify the signi?cant genes as well as to perform future predictions. The method is applied to cancer classi?cation via cDNA microarrays. In particular, the genes BRCA1 and BRCA2 are associated with a hereditary disposition to breast cancer, and the method is used to identify the set of signi?cant genes to classify BRCA1 and others. Microarray data can also be applied to survival models. We address the issue of how to reduce the dimension in building model by selecting signi?cant genes as well as assessing the estimated survival curves. Additionally, we consider the wellknown Weibull regression and semiparametric proportional hazards (PH) models for survival analysis. With microarray data, we need to consider the case where the number of covariates p exceeds the number of samples n. Speci?cally, for a given vector of response values, which are times to event (death or censored times) and p gene expressions (covariates), we address the issue of how to reduce the dimension by selecting the responsible genes, which are controlling the survival time. This approach enables us to estimate the survival curve when n << p. In our approach, rather than ?xing the number of selected genes, we will assign a prior distribution to this number. The approach creates additional ?exibility by allowing the imposition of constraints, such as bounding the dimension via a prior, which in e?ect works as a penalty. To implement our methodology, we use a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method. We demonstrate the use of the methodology with (a) di?use large B??cell lymphoma (DLBCL) complementary DNA (cDNA) data and (b) Breast Carcinoma data. Lastly, we propose a mixture of Dirichlet process models using discrete wavelet transform for a curve clustering. In order to characterize these time??course gene expresssions, we consider them as trajectory functions of time and gene??speci?c parameters and obtain their wavelet coe?cients by a discrete wavelet transform. We then build cluster curves using a mixture of Dirichlet process priors.

The focus of this thesis was the development of failure prognosis methods (prognostics) in rotating machinery with use of multiple sensors digital signal processing and machine learning techniques. The motivation stems from the void in literature concerning prognostics in meshing gearboxes. Moreover, there are several but inconclusive works regarding bearing prognosis. Few research groups have studied multi-hour fatigue gear experiments and this was one of the contributions of this thesis. Moreover, the study expanded beyond the sheer application of vibration monitoring with the addition of an Oil Debris Monitoring probe (ODM) as well as Acoustic emission (AE). The method of AE monitoring is, once again, proposed as a robust technique for failure prognosis being better correlated with gear pitting level compared to the classic vibration monitoring technique. Moreover, judging from ODM recordings the gear pitting comprises of two phases i) a linear phase, with an almost constant pitting rate and ii) a very short non linear phase where the pitting rate increases exponentially, an explicit indication of a critical failure. Multi-hour gear experiments that are close to real scale applications are very demanding in time as well as in invested capital. To bypass this shortfall a gear failure like simulation is proposed. The simulation framework is based on real life experiments and is applied to assess a number of data-driven Remaining Useful Life (RUL) estimation techniques namely i) Proportional Hazards Μodel (PHM), ii) ε- Support Vector Regression ε-SVR and iii) Exponential extrapolation based on bootstrap sampling. In the current thesis a feature extraction scheme for prognosis is proposed and assessed based on time domain, frequency domain statistical features and Wavelet Packet (WP) energy derived from AE and vibration recordings. ICA is proposed as a preferable fusion technique for gear failure prognostics. Application of ICA for feature fusion provided a clear improvement regarding the earlier presented bootstrap extrapolation technique. Bearings are also taken into account since they are closely connected to gearboxes. In the current thesis a wavelet denoising method is proposed for bearing vibration recordings aiming to the improvement of the diagnostic and prognostic potential of vibration. Finally the importance of data fusion is highlighted in the case of bearings. It is observed that a feature extraction scheme can generalize the application of prognostics, even in cases where RMS may yield no important degradation trend. / Η παρούσα εργασία εστιάζεται στην ανάπτυξη μεθοδολογιών πρόβλεψης τελικής αστοχίας σε περιστρεφόμενα συστήματα με χρήση πολλαπλών αισθητήρων και μεθόδων μηχανικής μάθησης και επεξεργασίας σήματος. Το κίνητρο προήλθε από το κενό που υπάρχει στη βιβλιογραφία όσον αφορά την προγνωστική σε κιβώτια ταχυτήτων. Η προγνωστική σε έδρανα έχει μεν μελετηθεί αλλά σε μικρό βαθμό και η παρούσα εργασία έρχεται να συμβάλλει και σε αυτό τον τομέα. Στα πλαίσια αυτής της εργασίας εκπονήθηκε ένας αριθμός πειραμάτων κόπωσης κιβωτίων ταχυτήτων. Η μελέτη επεκτάθηκε πέραν της παρακολούθησης κατάστασης με τη μέθοδο των κραδασμών και συγκεκριμένα μελετήθηκαν καταγραφές σωματιδίων σιδήρου στο λιπαντικό (ODM) καθώς και Ακουστική Εκπομπής (AE). Η μέθοδος ΑΕ ευρέθη πιο στενά συσχετισμένη με τη σταδιακή υποβάθμιση της ακεραιότητας του κιβωτίου ταχυτήτων σε σχέση με τις καταγραφές κραδασμών. Επίσης με βάση τις καταγραφές του αισθητήρα σωματιδίων σιδήρου διακρίθηκαν δύο στάδια  υποβάθμισης i) μια γραμμική περιοχή με σχεδόν σταθερό ρυθμό απελευθέρωσης υλικού από την επιφάνεια των δοντιών και ii) μια σύντομη αλλά έντονα μη γραμμική αύξηση στο ρυθμό αυτό πολύ κοντά στο τέλος της λειτουργίας του κιβωτίου. Tα πολύωρα πειράματα κόπωσης σε γρανάζια είναι πολύ απαιτητικά. Για να παρακαμφθεί αυτή η δυσκολία αναπτύχθηκε ένα φαινομενολογικό μοντέλο για αναπαραγωγή χρονοσειρών που ομοιάζουν σε καταγραφές γραναζιών σε κόπωση. Το μοντέλο αυτό στηρίχθηκε σε πραγματικά πειράματα κόπωσης. Έτσι έγινε δυνατό να εξεταστούν και να συγκριθούν ένας αριθμός μεθοδολογιών εκτίμησης εναπομένουσας ζωής και συγκεκριμένα i) Proportional Hazards Model (PHM), ii) ε- Support Vector Regression ε-SVR και iii) Exponential extrapolation βασισμένο σε μια διαδικασία bootstrap sampling. Στην παρούσα μελέτη προτείνεται ένα σύνολο παραμέτρων προερχόμενο από το πεδίο της συχνότητας, του χρόνου και κυματοπακέτων. Αυτό, συνδυαζόμενο με μια διαδικασία σύμπτυξης δεδομένων (ανάλυση σε πρωταρχικές και ανεξάρτητες συνιστώσες) αξιοποιείται για πρόγνωση σε γρανάζια σε κόπωση. Η τεχνική ανεξάρτητων συνιστωσών προτείνεται σαν προτιμότερη από τη σκοπιά της προγνωστικής καθώς βελτιώνει την εκτίμηση της εναπομένουσας ζωής. Η εργασία επεκτάθηκε και σε έδρανα κύλισης. Προτάθηκε μια διαδικασία wavelet denoising η οποία ενισχύει τόσο τη διαγνωστική όσο και την προγνωστική δυνατότητα του αισθητήρα κραδασμών. Τέλος, η σημασία της εξαγωγής παραμέτρων υπογραμμίζεται και στην περίπτωση της προγνωστικής σε έδρανα. Συνδυάζοντας πολλαπλές παραμέτρους και αισθητήρες κραδασμών μαζί με ένα μοντέλο ε-SVR παρέχεται ένα ολοκληρωμένο μοντέλο πιθανοτικής εκτίμησης εναπομένουσας ζωής σε έδρανα κύλισης ακόμα και σε περιπτώσεις που η τιμή RMS των κραδασμών δεν παρέχει πληροφορία.