O modelo semiparamétrico de Cox é frequentemente utilizado na modelagem de dados de sobrevivência, pois é um modelo muito flexível e permite avaliar o efeito das covariáveis sobre a taxa de falha. Uma das principais vantagens é a fácil interpretação, de modo que a razão de riscos de dois indivíduos não varia ao longo do tempo. No entanto, em algumas situações a proporcionalidade dos riscos para uma dada covariável pode não ser válida e, este caso, uma abordagem que não dependa de tal suposição é necessária. Nesta tese, propomos um modelo tipo Cox em que o efeito da covariável e a função de risco basal são representadas via bases de Fourier e ondaletas de Haar clássicas e deformadas. Propomos também um procedimento de predição da função de sobrevivência para um paciente específico. Estudos de simulações e aplicações a dados reais sugerem que nosso método pode ser uma ferramenta valiosa em situações práticas em que o efeito da covariável é dependente do tempo. Por meio destes estudos, fazemos comparações entre as duas abordagens propostas, e comparações com outra já conhecida na literatura, onde verificamos resultados satisfatórios. / The semiparametric Cox model is often considered when modeling survival data. It is very flexible, allowing for the evaluation of covariates effects. One of its main advantages is the easy of interpretation, as long as the rate of the hazards for two individuals does not vary over time. However, this proportionality of the hazards may not be true in some practical situations and, in this case, an approach not relying on such assumption is needed. In this thesis we propose a Cox-type model that allows for time-varying covariate effects, for which the baseline hazard is based on Fourier series and wavelets on a time-frequency representation. We derive a prediction method for the survival of future patients with any specific set of covariates. Simulations and an application to a real data set suggest that our method may be a valuable tool to model data in practical situations where covariate effects vary over time. Through these studies, we make comparisons between the two approaches proposed here and comparisons with other already known in the literature, where we verify satisfactory results.

A presente dissertação expõe um estudo analítico da Sequenza I, para flauta solo, escrita pelo compositor italiano Luciano Berio (1925-2003), com foco nas duas edições da obra. A primeira, de 1958, faz uso de notação proporcional e foi publicada pela Editora Suvini Zerboni. Já em 1992, surge uma edição revisada pelo compositor, fazendo uso de notação rítmica tradicional, e que foi publicada pela Universal Edition. Dentre as diversas motivações para a realização deste trabalho, podemos citar a peculiaridade da reescritura da obra pelo próprio compositor, 34 anos mais tarde, focando suas alterações substancialmente na notação rítmica; um levantamento de questões referentes às práticas interpretativas com foco na obra para flauta transversal; e a representatividade da Sequenza I como um cânone do repertório para flauta, cujo estudo é indispensável ao flautista do século XXI. Colocando-nos tanto no papel de intérprete quanto de analista, buscamos reflexões acerca das práticas interpretativas, visto que procuramos nos desenvolver no domínio de ambas as áreas. Na conclusão, observamos haver um relacionamento de colaboração mútua entre análise musical e performance que realmente esclarece aspectos estruturais, e uma influência da experiência de Berio junto à composição eletroacústica na escrita desta obra para instrumento acústico. / This thesis presents an analytical study of Sequenza I for solo flute, by the Italian composer Luciano Berio (1925-2003), focusing on two editions of the work. The first one, from 1958, uses proportional notation and was published by Suvini Zerboni Editions. The second one, published by Universal Edition in 1992, was reviewed by the composer and uses traditional rhythmic notation. Among various motivations for carrying out this work, I mention the peculiarity of a composer rewriting his own work 34 years later, centering his changes mainly in the rhythmic notation; a survey of issues regarding interpretative practices and focusing on works for flute; and the representativity of Sequenza I as a canon of the flute repertoire, which study is indispensable to the Twentieth Century flautist. Placing myself both in the role of performer and analyst, I look for reflections concerning performance practices, as I seek to develop myself in both fields. In conclusion, I found a relationship of mutual collaboration between musical analysis and performance, which really clarifies structural aspects; and an influence of Berio\'s experience within electroacoustic composition in writing this piece for an acoustic instrument

Made available in DSpace on 2016-04-27T16:58:56Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Marcia Regiane Miranda.pdf: 8663809 bytes, checksum: db65a0e8bef94d2cc5fa9a3b0bfd9e23 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2009-10-14 / Secretaria da Educação do Estado de São Paulo / The goal of this work is to make a synthesis of investigations focused on the mathematical expressions generated (or reflected) from manifestation and development of the proportional thinking. Our study object are activities set out in thesis produced in the State of São Paulo aimed at improving the teaching and learning proportional thinking aspects. Our research methodology is characterized as a documentary denominated qualitative metanalysis study which seeks to make a systematic review of a set of surveys that produce new results or synthesis. In order to transcend the results obtained by investigations, we used in analysis, elements which we believe are essentials of theoretical, historical and curricular references. We conduct our studies based on procedures of content analysis of Bardin (2008), in a qualitative approach, leading our research according to the following phases: 1) The preparation of the documentary corpus and register selection models. 2) The first analysis of documents. 3) Second analysis. 4) The final synthesis. As a result, we verified that the activities proposed in two dissertations of the State of São Paulo have fostered expression and the development of our students proportional thinking, and privileged aspects were those that had intended to represent proportional situations through charts, tables, symbols, drawings or diagrams; using central ideas associated with directions from rational numbers, or relations and operations between them, besides their representations, to solve problems involving functions or ideas associated with the functions and their representations and using multiplication and division to solve problems involving ratio or proportional ideas / O objetivo deste trabalho é fazer uma síntese de investigações, que focalizam as expressões matemáticas, geradas na (ou reflexos da) manifestação e desenvolvimento do pensamento proporcional. Nosso objeto de estudo são as atividades realizadas e explicitadas em dissertações de mestrado produzidas no Estado de São Paulo que visam melhorar o ensino e aprendizagem de aspectos do pensamento proporcional. Metodologicamente nossa pesquisa se caracteriza como um estudo documental denominado metanálise qualitativa na qual se procura fazer uma revisão sistemática de um conjunto de pesquisas, visando à produção de novos resultados, ou sínteses. Na intenção de transcender os resultados obtidos pelas investigações estudadas, utilizamos nas análises elementos que julgamos essenciais dos referenciais teórico, histórico e curricular. Baseamo-nos em procedimentos de análise de conteúdo de Bardin (2008), em uma abordagem qualitativa, conduzindo a nossa pesquisa conforme as seguintes fases: 1) Elaboração do corpus documental e seleção dos modelos de fichamento. 2) Primeira análise dos documentos. 3) Segunda análise. 4) Síntese final. Como resultado de nossa pesquisa, verificamos que a realização de atividades propostas em duas dissertações do Estado de São Paulo favoreceu a expressão e o desenvolvimento do pensamento proporcional em estudantes, e os aspectos privilegiados foram os que tiveram como objetivo representar situações proporcionais por meio de gráficos, tabelas, símbolos, desenhos ou diagramas; utilizar idéias centrais associadas aos sentidos do número racional, ou de relações e operações entre eles, além de suas representações, para resolver problemas envolvendo funções ou idéias associadas às funções e suas representações e utilizar multiplicação ou divisão para resolver problemas envolvendo idéias de razão ou proporção

Introdução: O câncer de orofaringe representa 10 a 12 % entre todos os tumores malignos do trato aero digestivo superior com incidência crescente nos Estados Unidos e Europa. O Papillomavírus humano (HPV) está associado aos tumores de orofaringe em até 63%, promovendo uma evolução e prognóstico melhor. Objetivo: Descrever a prevalência do HPV em carcinomas de células escamosas de orofaringe tratados por cirurgia. Analisar a associação entre a presença do HPV e as características demográficas, clínicas, patológicas e terapêuticas. Avaliar a importância da presença do HPV na sobrevida livre de doença e sobrevida global. Método: Pesquisamos a presença do Papillomavirus humano, por PCR, no anátomo patológico. A descrição da amostra foi realizada através de média, frequência absoluta e relativa. Foi estimada a prevalência do HPV e seu respectivo intervalo de 95% de confiança. A análise da associação entre a presença de HPV e as características demográficas, clínicas e patológicas, foi feita pelo teste de associação pelo quiquadrado. A análise da sobrevida livre de doença e sobrevida global foi feita pelo estimador produto limite de Kaplan-Meier e modelos de risco proporcionais de Cox. Resultados: Os pacientes apresentavam idade variando de 34 a 78 anos, com uma média de 56,9 anos. Apenas 10 mulheres no estudo, totalizando com 76 homens. A maioria dos pacientes eram brancos (83,7%). Até 6 meses foi o tempo que a maioria dos pacientes apresentaram como início dos sintomas (69,0%). O sintoma mais comum foi a odinofagia (38,4%). A amígadala foi a localização mais frequente (69,8%). Quanto ao estádio clínico, o III e o IV apresentavam a maior frequência (71,4%). Forma realizadas cirurgias amplas como as bucofaringectomias em 76 pacientes (88,4%). O esvaziamento cervical ipsilateral foi realizado em 81 pacientes (94,2%) e no contralateral em apenas 21 (24,4%). A prevalência do HPV foi de 57%, e o tipo mais comum foi o 16, em 83,6%. A única associação estatisticamente significativa entre as variáveis do estudo com o HPV, foi o tabagismo, onde todos os não fumantes apresentavam HPV. As taxas de sobrevida livre de doença foram 73,9%, 65,9 e 57,9% respectivamente para 12, 24 e 60 meses. Houve diferença estatisticamente significativa com piores taxas, para idade menor que 55 anos e margens comprometidas. A presença do HPV não influenciou a sobrevida livre de doença, nem a sobrevida global. As taxas de sobrevida global foram 75,6%, 54,7% e 43,0%, respectivamente aos 12, 24 e 60 meses. Houveram piores taxas para o paciente etilista e com recidiva.Conclusão:A presença do HPV não se mostrou importante, como fator prognóstico, nessa série cirúrgica se o paciente for etilista e ou tabagista / Introduction:Oropharynx cancer is considered to enact approximately 10 to 12% of the cases among all malignant tumors from the upper aero digestive tract showing significant growth in its frequency rate in The United States and Europe. Human papillomavirus (HPV) is associated to oropharynx cancer in up to 63% of the cases, promoting better evolution and prognostic.Objective:Describe the prevalence of the HPV in oropharynx squamous cells carcinoma submitted to surgery. Investigate the association between HPV presence and the demographic, clinical, pathologic and therapeutic features. Estimate the importance of the HPV existence on the diseasefree survival and overall survival. Material andMethods: The existence of Human papillomavirus was studied through the use of PCR. The sample account was conducted through average, absolute and relative frequency. It has been estimated the prevalence of HPV and its corresponding 95% confidence interval. The association analysis between the presence of HPV and the demographic, clinical and pathological features was completed by the Qui-square association test. The disease-free survival timeline and the overall survival were estimated using the product limit estimator Kaplan-Meier and Cox proportional hazards model. Results: The studied patients were aged between 34 and 78, showing an average of 56.9 years of age. There were only 10 women in the study, thus presenting 76 men. Most of the patients were white (83.7%). It has been ascertained that 69.0% of the patients presented the symptoms onset up to the sixth month of the disease. The most common symptom among 38.4% of the cases was odinophagy. In regards to the tumor location 69.8% were found in the amygdala.Clinical stagings III and IV were found to be the ones with greater representation among patients (71.4%). Extensive surgeries such as bucopharyngectomy were performed in 76 patients (88.4%). In order to treat ipsilateral neck 81 patients underwent neck dissection (94.2%). Contralateral neck dissection was applied in 21 patients (24.4%). The prevalence of HPV was of 57%, and the most common type was 16, present in 83.6% of the cases. It was possible to notice smoking as the only statistically significant association, which showed all nonsmoking having HPV. The disease-free survival rates were of 73.9%, 65.9% and 57.9% to 12, 24 and 60 months respectively. The study has shown significant statistical difference with worse rates, to the ones under 55 years of age and presenting compromised margins. HPV presence did not influence the disease-free survival timeline, or the overall survival. The overall survival rates were of 75.6%, 54.7% and 43.0% to 12, 24 and 60 months respectively. Worse rates were found in alcoholic patients as well as in relapse cases. Conclusion: In these surgical series, HPV existence was not identified as an important prognosis factor when considering smokers and/or alcoholic patients

No tratamento das maloclusões muitas vezes se impõe a necessidade de extrações dentárias para cumprir as metas do tratamento ortodôntico em busca da oclusão normal. Um dos recursos para o fechamento de espaços após exodontias é a utilização de arcos de retração com alças. Atualmente existe, no mercado, uma grande disponibilidade de arcos pré-fabricados, fornecidos por diversos fabricantes, que apresentam variações na forma e número de alças, espessura dos fios e ligas metálicas diferentes. O conhecimento das propriedades mecânicas e das forças liberadas por estes arcos é de extrema importância para que se obtenha uma resposta biológica adequada durante a movimentação dentária. O presente estudo procurou avaliar, experimentalmente, as forças liberadas por alguns tipos mais utilizados de arcos com alças produzidos com fios de secção retangular com variações de geometria (espessura, número e forma das alças), liga metálica e fabricante, impondo-lhes diferentes ativações. Buscou-se ainda determinar a quantidade de ativação onde ocorre o limite de proporcionalidade e, finalmente, fazer comparações entre os arcos com o intuito de fornecer ao ortodontista subsídios para a escolha do arco adequado. Para tal foram utilizados 19 tipos diferentes de arcos submetidos a testes de tração. Foram registradas as forças continuamente até uma deformação das alças de 4 mm. As comparações foram realizadas por meio de testes estatísticos isolando-se apenas uma característica de variação permitindo uma melhor compreensão do fator preponderante na alteração da força. Os resultados revelaram variações importantes nas forças a cada 0,5 mm de ativação, sendo de forma geral, ativações de 0,5 e 1,0 mm as que liberam forças mais adequadas. Os limites de proporcionalidade ocorreram na sua maioria acima de 1,5 mm de ativação até 2,5 mm, podendo em arcos mais flexíveis ocorrer acima de 4,0 mm. As comparações estatísticas demonstraram diferenças significativas entre todos os grupos avaliados, revelando que todas as variações (geometria, espessura, material e fabricante) exercem influência sobre a força gerada, sendo que a liga metálica parece ser preponderante. / In malocclusion treatments, dental extractions become necessary, in some cases, in order to achieve orthodontic goals of normal occlusion. One of the devices employed to close spaces after dental extraction is the use of retraction arches with loops. Nowadays, there is a wide range of pre-manufactured arches in the market, which present variations in shape, number of loops, thickness of the wire and metallic alloys. It is extremely important to understand mechanical properties as well as the forces delivered by these arches in order to achieve proper biological response during tooth movement. The present study tried to evaluate, experimentally, forces delivered by some of the most frequently employed arches made of rectangular wires with different geometrical characteristics (thickness, number and shape of loops), metallic alloys and made by different manufacturers, when submitted to different levels of activation. It was tried to determine the activation level at proportional limit and compare these values for different arches, in order to provide the orthodontists with accurate data which may help them to choose the proper arches. Nineteen different types of arches were submitted to tension tests. Forces were continuously measured up to 4 mm level of loop deformation. Statistical tests were employed to make comparisons, with only one type of variation for each test, which allowed a better comprehension of the main factor in force change. Results revealed important variations in forces at 0.5 mm intervals, and generally, 0.5 mm and 1.0 mm levels of activation delivered the most proper forces. Proportional limit occurred, mostly, over 1.5 mm and up to 2.5 mm levels of activation, except for more flexible arches, when it occurred above 4.0 mm. Statistical comparisons showed significant differences between all groups studied, demonstrating that all variations (geometry, thickness, material and manufacturer) can influence the delivered force. In spite of this, metallic alloys seemed to be the most important factor determining force deliverance variation.

A presente dissertação expõe um estudo analítico da Sequenza I, para flauta solo, escrita pelo compositor italiano Luciano Berio (1925-2003), com foco nas duas edições da obra. A primeira, de 1958, faz uso de notação proporcional e foi publicada pela Editora Suvini Zerboni. Já em 1992, surge uma edição revisada pelo compositor, fazendo uso de notação rítmica tradicional, e que foi publicada pela Universal Edition. Dentre as diversas motivações para a realização deste trabalho, podemos citar a peculiaridade da reescritura da obra pelo próprio compositor, 34 anos mais tarde, focando suas alterações substancialmente na notação rítmica; um levantamento de questões referentes às práticas interpretativas com foco na obra para flauta transversal; e a representatividade da Sequenza I como um cânone do repertório para flauta, cujo estudo é indispensável ao flautista do século XXI. Colocando-nos tanto no papel de intérprete quanto de analista, buscamos reflexões acerca das práticas interpretativas, visto que procuramos nos desenvolver no domínio de ambas as áreas. Na conclusão, observamos haver um relacionamento de colaboração mútua entre análise musical e performance que realmente esclarece aspectos estruturais, e uma influência da experiência de Berio junto à composição eletroacústica na escrita desta obra para instrumento acústico. / This thesis presents an analytical study of Sequenza I for solo flute, by the Italian composer Luciano Berio (1925-2003), focusing on two editions of the work. The first one, from 1958, uses proportional notation and was published by Suvini Zerboni Editions. The second one, published by Universal Edition in 1992, was reviewed by the composer and uses traditional rhythmic notation. Among various motivations for carrying out this work, I mention the peculiarity of a composer rewriting his own work 34 years later, centering his changes mainly in the rhythmic notation; a survey of issues regarding interpretative practices and focusing on works for flute; and the representativity of Sequenza I as a canon of the flute repertoire, which study is indispensable to the Twentieth Century flautist. Placing myself both in the role of performer and analyst, I look for reflections concerning performance practices, as I seek to develop myself in both fields. In conclusion, I found a relationship of mutual collaboration between musical analysis and performance, which really clarifies structural aspects; and an influence of Berio\'s experience within electroacoustic composition in writing this piece for an acoustic instrument

Instructional coaching has been a professional learning opportunity that many school districts have employed to support teacher practice. Pairing instructional coaching with on-going workshops is a relatively new approach to professional development. Participants for this study include fourteen middle school teachers that teach either mathematics or collaborate with special needs students. This study examines the effect that pairing instructional coaching with on-going workshops (with a primary focus on proportional reasoning) has on participants’ content knowledge and their perceptions of coaching. Drawing on Wenger’s community of practice theory and post-modern theory of power, this study employs mixed-methods design. Pre- and post-tests for proportional reasoning were administered to analyze the extent to which content knowledge changed over the course of the study. Pre- and post-interviews were conducted with each participant to determine any misconceptions each had on proportional reasoning and their perceptions of coaching (before and after the study’s instructional coaching). Grounded theory and thematic analysis was employed on the pre-and post-interviews to examine the role that power played in the participants’ perceptions of effective coaching attributes. Results suggest that (a) instructional coaching coupled with on-going professional workshops can change content knowledge in participants; (b) perceptions of coaching can change as the result of experiencing a coaching relationship and (c) power dynamics in the coaching experience determine the extent to which participants see the effectiveness of coaching as a professional development activity.

Many breast cancer diagnoses and second cancers are associated with BRCA gene mutations. Early detection of cancer is necessary to improve health outcomes, particularly with second cancers. Little is known about the influence of risk factors on time to diagnosis of second primary cancers after diagnosis with BRCA-related breast cancer. The purpose of this cohort study was to examine the risk of diagnosis of second primary cancers among women diagnosed with breast cancer after adjusting for BRCA status, age, and ethnicity. The study was guided by the empirical evidence supporting the mechanism of action in the mutation of BRCA leading to the development of cancer. Composite endpoint was used to define second primary cancer occurrences, and Kaplan-Meier survival curves were used to compare the median time-to-event among comparison groups and BRCA gene mutation status. Cox proportional hazards was used to examine the relationships between age at diagnosis, ethnicity, BRCA gene mutation status, and diagnosis of a second primary cancer. The overall median time to event for diagnosis of second primary cancers was 14 years. The hazard ratios for BRCA2 = 1.47, 95% CI [1.03 - 2.11], White = 1.511, 95% CI [1.18 - 1.94], and American Indian/Hawaiian = 1.424, 95% CI [1.12 -1.81] showing positive significant associations between BRCA2 mutation status and risk of diagnosis of second primary colorectal, endometrial, cervical, kidney, thyroid, and bladder cancers. Data on risk factors for development of second cancers would allow for identification of appropriate and timely screening procedures, determining the best course of action for prevention and treatment, and improving quality of life among breast cancer survivors.

成比例危險迴歸模式常被用於分析存活資料，Weibull模式更是其中惟一兼具加速失敗特性者。本論文將利用兩種分析方法，以研究任意設限及截斷資料的Weibull迴歸模式。第一種方法是利用最大概似估計法求算設限及截斷資料下的參數估計值（MLE），第二種方法則是對左設限及區間設限分別以所在區間之中點代入，稱其為中點估計法，再求算模式中的參數估計值（MDE）。並對此兩種估計方法進行比較。模擬結果顯示，相當地大樣本之下，最大概似估計法在許多情況均優於中點估計法；而在樣本少、危險率為平穩或接近平穩且區間設限比率約為0.5時，中點估計法是可被推薦的。而且，本論文亦提出對設限及截斷資料的Weibull模式之適合度檢驗程序。 / The proportional hazards regression model is most commonly used model for lifetime data. The Weibull model is the only parametric model which has both a proportional hazards representation and an accelerated failure-time representation. This paper studies the use of a Weibull-based proportional hazards regression model when any censored and truncated data are observed. Two alternative methods of analysis are considered. First, the maximum likelihood estimates（MLEs） of parameters are computed for the observed censoring and truncation pattern. Second, the estimates where midpoints are substituted for left- and interval-censored data（midpoint estimation, MDE）are computed. Then, MLEs are compared with MDEs. Simulation studies indicate that for relative large samples there are many instances when the MLE is superior to the MDE. For small samples where the hazard rate is flat or nearly so, and the percentage of interval-censored data is nearly half of samples, the MDE is adequate. Also, an evaluation of the adequacy of the Weibull model for any censored and truncated data is proposed.

Selection of signi?cant genes via expression patterns is important in a microarray problem. Owing to small sample size and large number of variables (genes), the selection process can be unstable. This research proposes a hierarchical Bayesian model for gene (variable) selection. We employ latent variables in a regression setting and use a Bayesian mixture prior to perform the variable selection. Due to the binary nature of the data, the posterior distributions of the parameters are not in explicit form, and we need to use a combination of truncated sampling and Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) based computation techniques to simulate the posterior distributions. The Bayesian model is ?exible enough to identify the signi?cant genes as well as to perform future predictions. The method is applied to cancer classi?cation via cDNA microarrays. In particular, the genes BRCA1 and BRCA2 are associated with a hereditary disposition to breast cancer, and the method is used to identify the set of signi?cant genes to classify BRCA1 and others. Microarray data can also be applied to survival models. We address the issue of how to reduce the dimension in building model by selecting signi?cant genes as well as assessing the estimated survival curves. Additionally, we consider the wellknown Weibull regression and semiparametric proportional hazards (PH) models for survival analysis. With microarray data, we need to consider the case where the number of covariates p exceeds the number of samples n. Speci?cally, for a given vector of response values, which are times to event (death or censored times) and p gene expressions (covariates), we address the issue of how to reduce the dimension by selecting the responsible genes, which are controlling the survival time. This approach enables us to estimate the survival curve when n << p. In our approach, rather than ?xing the number of selected genes, we will assign a prior distribution to this number. The approach creates additional ?exibility by allowing the imposition of constraints, such as bounding the dimension via a prior, which in e?ect works as a penalty. To implement our methodology, we use a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method. We demonstrate the use of the methodology with (a) di?use large B??cell lymphoma (DLBCL) complementary DNA (cDNA) data and (b) Breast Carcinoma data. Lastly, we propose a mixture of Dirichlet process models using discrete wavelet transform for a curve clustering. In order to characterize these time??course gene expresssions, we consider them as trajectory functions of time and gene??speci?c parameters and obtain their wavelet coe?cients by a discrete wavelet transform. We then build cluster curves using a mixture of Dirichlet process priors.