[pt] A avaliação da propagação de trincas de fadiga inclui a identificação da direção da trinca, o conhecimento do Fator de Intensidade de Tensões (SIF) equivalente, a determinação de uma taxa de crescimento de comprimento de trinca por número de ciclos da/dN e o estabelecimento de uma regra de propagação de trinca conectando SIF e da/dN, como uma regra de tipo Paris. Quando ocorrem cargas mistas e não proporcionais, esses parâmetros ainda não são totalmente compreendidos. Esta tese trata de algumas das variáveis que influenciam a propagação de trincas sob carregamento no modo misto não proporcional. A técnica de Correlação de Imagens Digitais (DIC) foi utilizada para a aquisição de imagens de corpos de prova submetidos a carregamento proporcional e não proporcional cíclico. Dois tipos de corpos de prova foram utilizados. Primeiramente, dois corpos de prova planos foram testados; um disk compact tension (DCT, em inglês) e um compact tension modificado (C (T) em inglês). Eles foram submetidos a carregamento cíclico induzindo o modo I de abertura de trinca ou modos I e II de abertura de trinca proporcionais. Em segundo lugar, os dados DIC adquiridos anteriormente, e em outro lugar, para cinco tubos finos sujeitos a carregamento cíclico foram analisados. Os tubos finos tiveram entalhes usinados a partir dos quais as trincas por fadiga iniciaram e se propagaram. Esses cinco tubos finos foram submetidos a diferentes casos de carga proporcional e não proporcional. Um corpo de prova tipo tubo fino foi exposto a carga axial e apresentou modo de abertura de trinca tipo I. Os outros quatro foram submetidos a carregamento de torção ou carga axial-torcional mista e exibiram todos os três modos de abertura de trinca I, II e III. Os campos de deslocamento adquiridos experimentalmente com a técnica DIC foram processados para calcular independentemente o SIF para cada modo de abertura existente usando formulações de mecânica de fratura elástica linear (MFLE). Uma formulação delas utilizou dados de deslocamento de campo completos adquiridos em pequenas áreas que circundavam a ponta da trinca. Outra formulação usou dados adquiridos de um par de pontos localizados ao longo dos flancos opostos das faces da trinca. Os SIFs determinados foram usados para encontrar os SIFs equivalentes e faixas de SIF equivalentes usando o critério da tensão máxima de tração (para ambas as versões 2D e 3D de combinações dos modos I-II e modos I-II-III respectivamente) que implicitamente incluíram o ângulo de propagação de trinca. Verificou-se que a inclusão do SIF no modo III experimentalmente determinado efetivamente faz diferença nas faixas do SIF e dos SIF equivalentes estimados. A curva da/dN versus faixa do SIF equivalente foi elaborado com as taxas de crescimento de trinca medidas experimentalmente e as faixas de SIF que foram encontradas usando a suposição amplamente aceita de que as trincas cresceram na direção que maximiza a tensão de tração. Para isso, extensões do modelo de Schollmann et. al. e bem como o modelo de Erdogan-Sih, que são geralmente aplicados ao carregamento proporcional, foram usados para determinar os SIFs equivalentes e faixas de SIF equivalentes para os casos de carregamento proporcional e não proporcional. Finalmente, a segunda zona da regra de Paris (da/dN versus faixa do SIF equivalente) foi plotada para os cinco casos de carregamento nos tubos finos mostrando que eles caíram dentro de uma faixa razoavelmente fina e dispersa. / [en] Fatigue crack propagation assessment includes identifying the crack direction, knowing the equivalent Stress Intensity Factor (SIF) range, determining a crack length growth rate per number of cycles (da/dN), and establishing a crack propagation rule connecting the equivalent SIF and da/dN rate, such as a Paris type of rule. When mixed and non-proportional loading occur, those parameters are not fully understood yet. This thesis deals with some of the variables that influence crack propagation under non-proportional mixed mode loading. The Digital Image Correlation (DIC) technique was used to acquire images of test specimens subjected to cyclic proportional and non-proportional loading. Two types of specimen samples were used. Firstly, two different plate test specimens were tested; a disk compact tension (DCT), and a modified compact tension, C(T). They were subjected cyclic loading inducing crack opening mode I or proportional crack opening modes I and II. Secondly, the previously and elsewhere acquired DIC data for five thin tubes subject to cyclic loading were analyzed. The thin tubes had pre-fabricated slit-notches from which fatigue cracks initiated and propagated. Those five thin tubes were subjected to different cases of proportional and non- proportional loading. One tube specimen was exposed to axial loading and presented mode I crack opening. The other four were subjected to torsion loading or mixed axial-torsional loading and exhibited all three I, II and III crack-opening modes. The experimentally acquired DIC displacement fields were processed to independently calculate SIF for each existing opening mode using linear elastic fracture mechanics (LEFM) formulations. One formulation used full field displacement data acquired in small areas that surrounded the crack tip. Another formulation used data acquired from a pair of points located along the opposite crack flanks. The determined SIFs were used to find equivalent SIFs and equivalent SIF ranges using the maximum tensile stress criterion (for both 2D and 3D versions of combinations of modes I-II and modes I-II-III respectively) which implicitly included the crack propagation angle. It was found that the inclusion of the experimentally determined mode III SIF indeed makes a difference in the determined equivalent SIF and equivalent SIF ranges. A da/dN versus equivalent SIF ranges plot was drafted with the experimentally measured crack growth rates and the SIF ranges that were found by using the widely accepted assumption that the cracks grew in the direction that maximizes the tensile stress. For this, extensions of the Schollmann et. al. model as well as of the Erdogan-Sih model, which are generally applied to proportional loading, were used to determine equivalent SIFs and equivalent SIF ranges for the cases of proportional and non-proportional loading. Finally, the second stage of the Paris rule (da/dN versus SIF range) was plotted for the five thin tubes loading cases showing that they fell inside a reasonably thin scattered band.

The thesis informs a reader about problems of establishing new/small political parties and their activities in Czech Parliament during the period of 2002 -- 2010. The surprising and unexpected results of Chamber of Desputies election that took place in May 2010 and brought considerable transformation of contemporary political establishment in Czech republic, represented the main impulse for writing this thesis. The aim of the thesis was to find out the size of political market openness for new/small political parties during the period of 2002-2010 and simultaneously evaluate what kind of position and substance these new/small political subjects in the political market have. A content of thesis is divided into two main parts. The first part is focused on theoretical theme and includes four chapters. There are mentioned mainly the issues of new/small political parties' definitions, the role of relevant parties in proportional representation systems and also some of the most important attempts of electoral reforms. The second part includes the final chapter that is focused on analysis of the factors that had influence on increase or decrease in chances of new/small parties to be successful in Chamber of Desputies elections from 2002 and thus become the part of political establishment. The fundamental questions were: How have the new/small political parties built up in that period of 2002-2010 and under what circumstances have they become the part of political establishment.

Health technology assessment: case study on breast carcinoma treatment in the Czech Republic Bc. Lenka Šlegerová January 4, 2019 Abstract This thesis proposes an original method for assessing total costs of med- ical treatment. It defines the semi-Markov model with four states that are associated with specific costs of the treatment, and not with patients' health statuses. This method is applied to individuals' treatment data drawn from the Czech clinical practice in the treatment of the metastatic HER2+ breast cancer. The aim is to assess the cost-effectiveness of adding medication per- tuzumab to the combination of trastuzumab+docetaxel within first-line therapy and to examine whether using individual data on Czech patients and the economic conditions leads to different results from foreign stud- ies. Furthermore, employing censored data from the clinical practice in the thesis complicates the estimation of patients' overall survival in compari- son to clinical-trials data that form random samples. Therefore, survival functions were not only estimated by the Kaplan-Meier estimator but also using the Cox proportional hazard model and the Accelerated failure time model that both control for the effects of included covariates. The addition of pertuzumab does not result in significantly longer pa- tients'...

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The organic materials used for stator winding insulation are subject to deterioration from thermal, electrical, and mechanical stresses. Stator winding insulation breakdown due to excessive thermal stress is one of the major causes of electric machine failures; therefore, prevention of such a failure is crucial for increasing machine reliability and minimizing financial loss due to motor failure. This work focuses on the development of an efficient and reliable stator winding temperature estimation scheme for small to medium size mains-fed induction machines. The motivation for the stator winding temperature estimation is to develop a sensorless temperature monitoring scheme and provide an accurate temperature estimate that is capable of responding to the changes in the motors cooling capability. A discussion on the two major types of temperature estimation techniques, thermal model-based and parameter-based temperature techniques, reveals that neither method can protect motors without sacrificing the estimation accuracy or motor performance. Based on the evaluation of the advantages and disadvantages of these two types of temperature estimation techniques, a new online stator winding temperature estimation scheme for small to medium size mains-fed induction machines is proposed in this work. The new stator winding temperature estimation scheme is based on a hybrid thermal model. By correlating the rotor temperature with the stator temperature, the hybrid thermal model unifies the thermal model-based and the parameter-based temperature estimation techniques. Experimental results validate the proposed scheme for stator winding temperature monitoring. The entire algorithm is fast, efficient and reliable, making it suitable for implementation in real time stator winding temperature monitoring.

如何藉由DNA微陣列資料跟存活資料的資訊來找出基因表現定型一直是個重要的議題。這些研究的主要目標是從大量的基因中找出那些真正跟存活時間或其它重要的臨床結果有顯著關係的小部分。Threshold Gradient Directed Regularization (TGDR)是ㄧ種已經被應用在高維度迴歸問題中能同時處理變數選取以及模型配適的演算法。然而，TGDR採用一種梯度投影型態的演算法使得收斂速率緩慢。在本篇論文中，我們建議新的包含Newton-Raphson求解演算法類型的改良版TGDR方法。我們建議的方法有類似TGDR的特性但卻有比較快的收斂速率。文中並利用一筆附有設限存活時間的真實微陣列癌症資料來做示範。 本篇論文的第二部份是關於適用於區間設限存活資料的重複抽樣Peto-Peto檢定。這個重複抽樣Peto-Peto檢定能夠評估存活函數估計方法的檢定力，例如Turnbull的估計方法以及Kaplan-Meier的估計方法。這個檢定方法顯示出在區間設限資料時Kaplan-Meier的估計方法的檢定力要比Turnbull的估計方法的檢定力來得低。這個檢定方法將以模擬的區間設限資料以及一筆真實關於乳癌研究的區間設限資料來說明。 / Analyzing censored survival data with high-dimensional covariates arising from the microarray data has been an important issue. The main goal is to find genes that have pivotal influence with patient's survival time or other important clinical outcomes. Threshold Gradient Directed Regularization (TGDR) method has been used for simultaneous variable selection and model building in high-dimensional regression problems. However, the TGDR method adopts a gradient-projection type of method and would have slow convergence rate. In this thesis, we proposed Modified TGDR algorithms which incorporate Newton-Raphson type of search algorithm. Our proposed approaches have the similar characteristics with TGDR but faster convergence rates. A real cancer microarray data with censored survival times is used for demonstration. The second part of this thesis is about a proposed resampling based Peto-Peto test for survival functions on interval censored data. The proposed resampling based Peto-Peto test can evaluate the power of survival function estimation methods, such as Turnbull’s Procedure and Kaplan-Meier estimate. The test shows that the power based on Kaplan-Meier estimate is lower than that based on Turnbull’s estimation on interval censored data. This proposed test is demonstrated on simulated data and a real interval censored data from a breast cancer study.

Från 1900-talets början har banker och låneinstitut använt nyckeltal som hjälpmedel vid bedömning och kvantifiering av kreditrisk. För dagens investerare är den ekonomiska miljön mer komplicerad än för bara 40 år sedan då teknologin och datoriseringen öppnade upp världens marknader mot varandra. Bedömning av kreditrisk idag kräver effektiv analys av kvantitativa data och modeller som med god träffsäkerhet kan förutse risker. Under 1900-talets andra hälft skedde en snabb utveckling av de verktyg som används för konkursprediktion, från enkla univariata modeller till komplexa data mining-modeller med tusentals observationer. Denna studie undersöker om det är möjligt att prediktera att svenska företag kommer att gå i konkurs och vilka variabler som innehåller relevant information för detta. Metoderna som används är diskriminantanalys, logistisk regression och överlevnadsanalys på 50 aktiva och 50 företag försatta i konkurs. Resultaten visar på en träffsäkerhet mellan 67,5 % och 75 % beroende på vald statistisk metod. Oavsett vald statistisk metod är det möjligt att klassificera företag som konkursmässiga två år innan konkursens inträffande med hjälp av finansiella nyckeltal av typerna lönsamhetsmått och solvensmått. Samhällskostnader reduceras av bättre konkursprediktion med hjälp av finansiella nyckeltal vilka bidrar till ökad förmåga för företag att tillämpa ekonomistyrning med relevanta nyckeltal i form av lager, balanserad vinst, nettoresultat och rörelseresultat. / From the early 1900s, banks and lending institutions have used financial ratios as an aid in the assessment and quantification of credit risk. For today's investors the economic environment is far more complicated than 40 years ago when the technology and computerization opened up the world's markets. Credit risk assessment today requires effective analysis of quantitative data and models that can predict risks with good accuracy. During the second half of the 20th century there was a rapid development of the tools used for bankruptcy prediction. We moved from simple univariate models to complex data mining models with thousands of observations. This study investigates if it’s possible to predict bankruptcy in Swedish limited companies and which variables contain information relevant for this cause. The methods used in the study are discriminant analysis, logistic regression and survival analysis on 50 active and 50 failed companies. The results indicate accuracy between 67.5 % and 75 % depending on the choice of statistical method. Regardless of the selected statistical method used, it’s possible to classify companies as bankrupt two years before the bankruptcy occurs using financial ratios which measures profitability and solvency. Societal costs are reduced by better bankruptcy prediction using financial ratios which contribute to increasing the ability of companies to apply financial management with relevant key ratios in the form of stock , retained earnings , net income and operating income.

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Saskatchewan is the only province in Canada to have routinely tested the antimicrobial susceptibility of all provincially reported human cases of campylobacteriosis. From 1999 to 2006, 1378 human Campylobacter species infections were tested for susceptibility at the Saskatchewan Disease Control Laboratory using the Canadian Integrated Program for Antimicrobial Resistance Surveillance panel and minimum inhibitory concentration (MIC) breakpoints. Of these, 1200 were C. jejuni, 129 were C. coli, with the remaining made up of C. lari, C. laridis, C. upsaliensis and undifferentiated Campylobacter species. Campylobacter coli had significantly higher prevalences of ciprofloxacin resistance (CIPr), erythromycin resistance (ERYr), combined CIPr-ERYr resistance and multidrug resistance (to three or greater drug classes) than C. jejuni. Logistic regression models indicated that CIPr in C. jejuni decreased from 1999 to 2004 and subsequently increased in 2005 and 2006. The risk of CIPr was significantly increased in the winter months (January to March) compared to other seasons. A comparison of logistic regression and Cox proportional hazard survival models found that the latter were better able to detect significant temporal trends in CIPr and tetracycline resistance by directly modeling MICs, but that these trends were more difficult to interpret. Scan statistics detected significant spatial clusters of CIPr C. jejuni infections in urban centers (Saskatoon and Regina) and temporal clusters in the winter months; the space-time permutation model did not detect any space-time clusters. Bernoulli scan tests were computationally the fastest for cluster detection, compared to ordinal MIC and multinomial antibiogram models. eBURST analysis of antibiogram patterns showed a marked distinction between case and non-case isolates from the scan statistic clusters. Multilevel logistic regression models detected significant individual and regional contextual risk factors for infection with CIPr C. jejuni. Patients infected in the winter, that were between the ages of 40-45 years of age, that lived in urban regions and that lived in regions of moderately high poultry density had higher risks of a resistant infection. These results advance the epidemiologic knowledge of CIPr C. jejuni in Saskatchewan and provide novel analytical methods for antimicrobial resistance surveillance data in Canada. / Saskatchewan Disease Control Laboratory (Saskatchewan Ministry of Health); Laboratory for Foodborne Zoonoses (Public Health Agency of Canada); Centre for Foodborne, Environmental and Zoonotic Infectious Diseases (Public Health Agency of Canada); Ontario Veterinary College Blake Graham Fellowship

On s'intéresse à la construction et l'estimation - à partir d'observations incomplètes - de modèles de variables aléatoires à valeurs réelles sur un graphe. Ces modèles doivent être adaptés à un problème de régression non standard où l'identité des variables observées (et donc celle des variables à prédire) varie d'une instance à l'autre. La nature du problème et des données disponibles nous conduit à modéliser le réseau sous la forme d'un champ markovien aléatoire, choix justifié par le principe de maximisation d'entropie de Jaynes. L'outil de prédiction choisi dans ces travaux est l'algorithme Belief Propagation - dans sa version classique ou gaussienne - dont la simplicité et l'efficacité permettent son utilisation sur des réseaux de grande taille. Après avoir fourni un nouveau résultat sur la stabilité locale des points fixes de l'algorithme, on étudie une approche fondée sur un modèle d'Ising latent où les dépendances entre variables réelles sont encodées à travers un réseau de variables binaires. Pour cela, on propose une définition de ces variables basée sur les fonctions de répartition des variables réelles associées. Pour l'étape de prédiction, il est nécessaire de modifier l'algorithme Belief Propagation pour imposer des contraintes de type bayésiennes sur les distributions marginales des variables binaires. L'estimation des paramètres du modèle peut aisément se faire à partir d'observations de paires. Cette approche est en fait une manière de résoudre le problème de régression en travaillant sur les quantiles. D'autre part, on propose un algorithme glouton d'estimation de la structure et des paramètres d'un champ markovien gaussien, basé sur l'algorithme Iterative Proportional Scaling. Cet algorithme produit à chaque itération un nouveau modèle dont la vraisemblance, ou une approximation de celle-ci dans le cas d'observations incomplètes, est supérieure à celle du modèle précédent. Cet algorithme fonctionnant par perturbation locale, il est possible d'imposer des contraintes spectrales assurant une meilleure compatibilité des modèles obtenus avec la version gaussienne de Belief Propagation. Les performances des différentes approches sont illustrées par des expérimentations numériques sur des données synthétiques.