Geothermal energy is an important source of clean and renewable energy. This project deals with the study of deep geothermal power plants for the generation of electricity. The design involves the extraction of heat from the Earth and its conversion into electricity. This is performed by allowing fluid deep into the Earth where it gets heated due to the surrounding rock. The fluid gets vaporized and returns to the surface in a heat pipe. Finally, the energy of the fluid is converted into electricity using turbine or organic rankine cycle (ORC). The main feature of the system is the employment of side channels to increase the amount of thermal energy extracted. A finite difference computer model is developed to solve the heat transport equation. The numerical model was employed to evaluate the performance of the design. The major goal was to optimize the output power as a function of parameters such as thermal diffusivity of the rock, depth of the main well, number and length of lateral channels. The sustainable lifetime of the system for a target output power of 2 MW has been calculated for deep geothermal systems with drilling depths of 8000 and 10000 meters, and a financial analysis has been performed to evaluate the economic feasibility of the system for a practical range of geothermal parameters. Results show promising an outlook for deep geothermal systems for practical applications.

Att utforma interaktiva TV-tjänster skiljer sig på flera sätt från att designa för webb eller för vanliga PC-tillämpningar. Faktorer som lägre bildupplösning, längre avstånd mellan användare och skärm, och inte minst användandet av fjärrkontroll istället för tangentbord och mus gör att villkoren ser annorlunda ut än för PC-tillämpningar. I detta arbete beskrivs hur en videobutik för en set-top-box för digital-TV utformas via iterativ hifi-prototypning och utvärdering. Lärdomarna är tillämpbara på andra interaktiva TV-tillämpningar. / Designing interactive TV applications is in many ways different than designing for the web for for PC applications. Lower screen resolution, longer distance between user and screen, and not least the use of a remote control as input device instead of keyboard and mouse make for different conditions than when designing PC applications. In this thesis the design of a video store for a digital TV set-top-box is being outlined. The design is made through interative hifi-prototyping and evaluation. The learnings from this work are applicable on other interactive TV-applications.

Maximum interstory drift and the distribution of this drift along the height of the structure are the main causes of structural and nonstructural damage in frame type buildings subjected to earthquake ground motions. Estimation of maximum interstory drift ratio is a good measure of the local response of buildings. Recent earthquakes have revealed the susceptibility of the existing building stock to near-fault ground motions characterized by a large, long-duration velocity pulse. In order to find rational solutions for the destructive effects of near fault ground motions, it is necessary to determine drift demands of buildings. Practical, applicable and accurate methods that define the system behavior by means of some key parameters are needed to assess the building performances quickly instead of detailed modeling and calculations. In this study, simple equations are proposed in order for the determination of the elastic interstory drift demand produced by near fault ground motions on regular and irregular steel frame structures. The proposed equations enable the prediction of maximum elastic ground story drift ratio of shear frames and the maximum elastic ground story drift ratio and maximum elastic interstory drift ratio of steel moment resisting frames. In addition, the effects of beam to column stiffness ratio, soft story factor, stiffness distribution coefficient, beam-to-column capacity ratio, seismic force reduction factor, ratio of pulse period to fundamental period, regular story height and number of stories on elastic and inelastic interstory drift demands are investigated in detail. An equation for the ratio of maximum inelastic interstory drift ratio to maximum elastic interstory drift ratio developed for a representative case is also presented.

Electricity is the most preferred source of energy, because of its quality and convenience of usage. It is probably one of the most vital infrastructural inputs for economic development of a country. Indeed it is the fulcrum which can leverage the future pace of growth and development. These reasons have made the electric power industry one of the fastest growing sectors in most developing countries and particularly in India. Therefore it is not surprising to observe the economic growth of a country being related to the increase in electricity consumption. In India, the growth rate of demand for power is generally higher than that of Gross Domestic Product (GDP). However, to achieve this kind of growth in electricity supply, the capital investments required are very huge. Even though the electricity sector generally gels a major share in the budgetary allocations in India, this is inadequate to add the required quantum of new generation capacity to keep pace with the increase in demand for electricity. Additional constraints like capital scarcity in the public sector, lack of enthusiasm among the private and foreign investors, and strong opposition from the environmentalists have further contributed to this slow pace of new generating capacity addition. This has resulted in severely constrained systems in India. The main focus of the present research work is on the development of an integrated approach for electricity planning using a mathematical modeling framework in (he context of resource constrained systems. There are very few attempts in the literature to integrate short, medium and long term issues in electricity planning. This is understandable from the point of view of unconstrained electricity systems where this type of integration is unnecessary since such systems have a luxury of surplus capacity to meet the current demand and capacity additions are required only for meeting predicted future increase in demand. However, in the case of constrained electricity systems, which are characterized by shortages, this kind of integration is very essential. These systems have to manage with inadequate capacity in the present, plan capacity additions to bridge the existing gap and to meet future increase in demand, and always explore the possibility of adding capacity with short gestation period. The integrated approach is expected to achieve effective supply-demand matching on a continuous basis encompassing both the short term and long term horizons. To achieve this, we have considered three alternatives- existing supply, new supply and non-supply (rationing) of electricity. The electricity system of the state of Karnataka, which is severely constrained by both limited capital and energy resources, has been selected for this purpose. As a first step, the supply and demand situation has been studied in the context of resource constraints. In terms of supply, both existing and future additions are studied in detail with respect to the potential created, generation types, import potential, technical constraints, energy and power shortages, planned and proposed capacity additions by both public and private sectors, etc. The demand patterns have been studied by introducing a new concept of "Representative Load Curves (RLCs)". These RLCs are used to model the temporal and structural variations in demand for electricity. Also, appropriate non-supply options (rationing measures) for effective management of shortages are identified. Incorporating this information, an integrated mathematical model, which is expected to generate a target plan for a detailed generation scheduling exercises and a requirement plan for a regular generation expansion planning, has been developed. The other important alternative "Demand-Side-Management (DSM)", which could be considered as an effective option to achieve efficient supply-demand matching has not been included in the present research work. The major reason for not including the DSM alternatives is due to the difficulty in integrating these in the modelling approach adopted here. In the present approach we have used typical daily load curves (RLCs) to represent the demand for electricity. These are aggregate load curves and do not contain any sector-wise or end-use-wisc details. On the other hand, DSM alternatives are end-use focused. To incorporate DSM alternatives, we should have information on end-usc-wisc power demand (kW or MW), savings potential, time-of-use, etc. For this purpose it may be required to have end-use-wisc daily load curves. This information is not available and a separate detailed survey may be required to generate these load curves. This, we felt, is out of the scope of this present research work and a separate study may be required to do this. Therefore, we restricted our focus to supply planning alone. A detailed literature review is conducted to understand different types of modeling approaches to electricity planning. For the present study, however, the review of literature has been restricted to the methods of generation expansion planning and scheduling. In doing so, we attempted to bring out the differences in various approaches in terms of solution methods adopted, alternatives included and modifications suggested. Also, we briefly reviewed the literature on models for power and energy rationing, because management of shortages is an important aspect of the present study. Subsequently, a separate section is devoted to present an overview of the non-supply of electricity and its economic impacts on the consumers. We found that the low reliability of the electrical system is an indicator of the existence of severe shortages of power and energy, which cause non-supply of electricity to the consumers. The overview also presented a discussion on reasons for non-supply of electricity, and the types of non-supply options the utilities adopt to over come these shortages. We also attempted to explain what we mean by non-supply of electricity, what are its cost implications, and the methods available in the literature to estimate these costs. The first objective of the research pertains to the development of a new approach to model the varying demand for electricity. Using the concept of Representative Load Curves (RLCs) we model the hourly demand for a period of four years, 1993-94, 1994-95, 1995-96 and 1996-97, to understand the demand patterns of both unconstrained and constrained years. Multiple discriminant analysis has been used to cluster the 365 load curves into nine RLCs for each of the four years. The results show that these RLCs adequately model the variations in demand and bring out the distinctions in the demand patterns existed during the unconstrained and constrained years. The demand analysis using RLCs helped to study the differences in demand patterns with and without constraints, impacts of constraints on preferred pattern of electricity consumption, success of non-supply options in both reducing the demand levels and greatly disturbing the electricity usage patterns. Multifactor ANOVA analyses are performed to quantify the statistical significance of the ability of the logically obtained factors in explaining the overall variations in demand. The results of the ANOVA analysis clearly showed that the considered factors accounted for maximum variations in demand at very high significance levels. It also brought out the significant influence of rationing measures in explaining the variations in demand during the constrained years. Concerning the second objective, we explained in detail, the development of an integrated mixed integer-programming model, which we felt is appropriate for planning in the case of resource constrained electricity systems. Two types of integrations are attempted (i) existing supply, non-supply and new supply options for dynamically matching supply and demand, (ii) operational and strategic planning in terms of providing target plans for the former and requirement plans for the latter. Broadly, the approach addresses the effective management of existing capacity, optimal rationing plan to effectively manage shortages and rationally decide on the new capacity additions both to bridge the existing gap between supply and demand, and to meet the future increases in demand. There is also an attempt to arrive at an optimal mix of public and private capacity additions for a given situation. Finally, it has been attempted to verify the possibility of integration of captive generation capacity with the grid. Further, we discussed in detail about the data required for the model implementation. The model is validated through the development of a number of scenarios for the state of Karnataka. The base case scenario analyses are carried out for both the unconstrained and constrained years to compare the optimal allocations with actual allocations that were observed, and to find out how sensitive are the results for any change in the values of various parameters. For the constrained years, a few more scenarios are used to compare the optimal practice of managing shortages with to what has been actually followed by the utility. The optimal allocations of the predicted demand to various existing supply and non-supply options clearly showed that the actual practice, reflected by the actual RLCs, are highly ad hoc and sub-optimal. The unit cost comparisons among different scenarios show that the least cost choice of options by the utility does not necessarily lead to good choices from the consumers’ perspective. Further, a number of future scenarios are developed to verify the ability of the model to achieve the overall objective of supply-demand matching both in the short and long term. For this purpose both the short horizon annual scenarios (1997-98 to 2000-01) and long horizon terminal year scenarios (2005-06 and 2010-11) are developed assuming capacity additions from only public sector. Overall, the results indicated that with marginal contributions from non-supply options and if the public sector generates enough resources to add the required capacity, optimal matching of supply and demand could be achieved. The scenario analyses also showed that it is more economical to have some level of planned rationing compared to having a more reliable system. The quantum of new capacity additions required and the level of investments associated with it clearly indicated the urgent need of private sector participation in capacity additions. Finally, we made an attempt to verify the applicability of the integrated model to analyse the implications of private sector participation in capacity additions. First, a number of scenarios are developed to study the optimal allocations of predicted hourly demand to private capacity under different situations. Secondly, the impacts of privatisation on the public utility and consumers are analysed. Both short term and long term scenarios are developed for this purpose. The results showed the advantage of marginal non-supply of electricity both in terms of achieving overall effective supply-demand matching and economic benefits that could be generated through cost savings. The results also showed the negative impacts of high guarantees offered to the private sector in terms of the opportunity costs of reduced utilization of both the existing and new public capacity. The estimates of unit cost of supply and effective cost of supply facilitated the relative comparison among various scenarios as well as finding out the merits and demerits of guarantees to private sector and non-supply of electricity. The unit cost estimates are also found to be useful in studying the relative increase in electricity prices for consumers on account of privatization, guarantees and reliable supply of electricity. Using the results of scenario analyses, likely generation expansion plans till the year 2010-11 are generated. The analyses have been useful in providing insights into fixing the availability and plant load factors for the private sector capacity. Based on the analysis, the recommended range for plant utilization factor is 72.88 - 80.57%. The estimated generation losses and the associated economic impacts of backing down of existing and new public capacity on account of guarantees offered to private sector are found to be significantly high. The analyses also showed that the backing down might take place mainly during nights and low demand periods of monsoon and winter seasons. Other impacts of privatization that studied are in terms of increased number of alternatives for the utility to buy electricity for distribution and the associated increase in its cost of purchase. Regarding the consumers, the major impact could be in terms of significant increase in expected tariffs. The major contributions of this thesis are summarized as follows: i. An integrated approach to electricity planning that is reported here, is unique in the sense that it considers options available under various alternatives, namely, existing supply, non-supply and new supply. This approach is most suited for severely constrained systems having to manage with both energy and capital resource shortages. ii. The integration of operational and strategic planning with coherent target plans for the former and requirement plans for the latter bridges the prevailing gap in electricity planning approaches. iii. The concept of Representative Load Curves (RLCs), which is introduced here, captures the hourly, daily and seasonal variations in demand. Together, all the RLCs developed for a given year are expected to model the hourly demand patterns of that year. These RLCs are useful for planning in resource constrained electricity systems and in situations where it is required to know the time variations in demand (e.g. supply-demand matching, seasonal scheduling of hydro plants and maintenance scheduling). RLCs are also useful in identifying the factors influencing variations in demand. This approach will overcome the limitations of current method of representation in the form of static and aggregate annual load duration curves. iv. A new term, "non-supply of electricity" has been introduced in this thesis. A brief overview of non-supply presented here includes reasons for non-supply, type of non-supply, methods to estimate cost of non-supply and factors influencing these estimates. v. The integrated mixed integer programming model developed in the study has been demonstrated as a planning tool for- • Optimal hourly and seasonal scheduling of various existing supply, non-supply and new supply options • Estimation of supply shortages on a representative hourly basis using the information on resource constraints • Effectively planning non-supply of electricity through appropriate power/energy rationing methods • Estimation of the need for the new capacity additions both to bridge the existing gap and to take care of increase in future demand levels • Optimal filling of gaps between demand and supply on a representative hourly basis through new supply of electricity • Optimally arriving at the judicious mix of public and private capacity additions • Studying the impacts of private capacity on the existing and new public sector capacity, and on the consumers • Optimally verifying the feasibility of integrating the captive generation with the total system vi. The demand analysis using RLCs helped to bring out the differences in demand patterns with and without constraints, impacts of constraints on preferred pattern of electricity consumption, success of non-supply options in both reducing the demand levels and greatly disturbing the electricity usage patterns. Multifactor ANOVA analyses results showed that the logically obtained factors accounted for maximum variations in demand at very high significance levels. vii. A comparison of optimal (represented by optimal predicted RLCs) and actual (reflected by actual RLCs) practices facilitated by the model showed that the actual practice during constrained years is highly ad hoc and sub-optimal. viii. The results of the scenario analyses showed that it is more economical to have some amount of planned rationing compared to having a more reliable system, which does not allow non-supply of electricity. ix. The scenarios, which analysed the impacts of high guarantees offered to the private sector, showed the negative impacts of these in terms of reduced utilization of both the existing and new public capacity. x. Generation expansion plans till the year 2010-11 are developed using the results of various kinds of scenario analyses. Two groups of year-wise generation expansion plans are generated, one with only public sector capacity additions and the other with private sector participation. xi. The impacts of privatization of capacity additions are studied from the point of view of the utility and consumers in terms of expected increase in cost of purchase of electricity and tariffs. xii. The analyses are also made for developing some insights into fixing the availability and plant load factors for the private capacity. Based on the analysis, the recommended range for plant utilization factor is 72.88 - 80.57%. We believe that the integrated approach presented and the results obtained in this thesis would help utilities (both suppliers and distributors of electricity) and governments in making rational choices in the context of resource constrained systems. The results reported here may also be used towards rationalization of Government policies vis-a-vis tariff structures in the supply of electricity, planning new generation capacity additions and effective rationing of electricity. It is also hoped that the fresh approach adopted in this thesis would attract further investigations in future research on resource constrained systems.

Accurate demand forecasting is a key capability for a manufacturing organization, more so, a semiconductor manufacturer. Many crucial decisions are based on demand forecasts. The semiconductor industry is characterized by very short product lifecycles (10 to 24 months) and extremely uncertain demand. The pace at which both the manufacturing technology and the product design changes, induce change in manufacturing throughput and potential demand. Well known methods like exponential smoothing, moving average, weighted moving average, ARMA, ARIMA, econometric methods and neural networks have been used in industry with varying degrees of success. We propose a novel forecasting technique which is based on Support Vector Regression (SVR). Specifically, we formulate ν-SVR models for semiconductor product demand data. We propose a 3-phased input vector modeling approach to comprehend demand characteristics learnt while building a standard ARIMA model on the data. Forecasting Experimentations are done for different semiconductor product demand data like 32 & 64 bit CPU products, 32bit Micro controller units, DSP for cellular products, NAND and NOR Flash Products. Demand data was provided by SRC(Semiconductor Research Consortium) Member Companies. Demand data was actual sales recorded at every month. Model performance is judged based on different performance metrics used in extant literature. Results of experimentation show that compared to other demand forecasting techniques ν-SVR can significantly reduce both mean absolute percentage errors and normalized mean-squared errors of forecasts. ν-SVR with our 3-phased input vector modeling approach performs better than standard ARIMA and simple ν-SVR models in most of the cases.

<p>Denna uppsats undersöker hur efterfrågan av Chilenskt vin påverkas av importländernas inkomst, relativpriset på Chilenskt vin i förhållande till genomsnittspriset på den totala importen av vin, avståndet mellan handelsparterna och inhemsk vinproduktion i importlandet. Studien innefattar 15 OECD länder mellan åren 1998 och 2002.</p><p>En utökad exportefterfrågefunktion ligger till grund för den empiriska undersökningen och resultaten visar signifikanta variabler med förväntade tecken. Vidare utvidgas ekvationen för att beakta tidseffekter, nämligen genom att inkludera genomsnittsvärdet på den beroende variabeln och dummy variabler för treårsperioder. Genom detta stiger förklaringsgraden i regressionen från 27,8 till 58,1 procent. De estimerade långsiktiga effekterna i efterfrågan för Chilenskt vin visar att en ökning med en procent av importörernas inkomst också ökar efterfrågan på Chilenskt vin med ungefär 0,8 procent. En lika stor ökning i relativpriset minskar efterfrågan med ungefär 0,3 procent. Ökat avstånd mellan handelsparterna med 1000 kilometer minskar efterfrågan med 16,6 procent. Om importören är ett vinproducerande land är efterfrågan 85 procent lägre än om landet inte producerar vin.</p><p>Resultaten stämmer överens med teorierna om exportefterfrågan men skillnader mellan vinproducerande länder är i vissa fall stora. En anledning för detta kan vara skillnader i produktionsvolym av vin mellan länder, en annan att det finns starka kulturella associationer till inhemska produkter som gör att konsumenter föredrar inhemska produkter framför utländska.</p> / <p>This thesis examines how the export demand for Chilean wine is affected by importers income, relative prices, distance between trading partners and do-mestic wine production between 1988 and 2002 in 15 OECD countries.</p><p>The empirical test is based on an extended export demand function, and the results show significant estimates with expected signs. Adjusting for time pe-riod specific effects by including dummy variables for three year periods and running the regression on the average values of Chilean export of wine in-creased the coefficient of determination from 27.8 to 58.1 percent. The long run effect on demand for Chilean wine indicates that a one percent increase in importers’ income raises demand for Chilean wine with about 0.8 percent. A similar increase in the relative price of Chilean wine to the world price of wine decreases demand with about 0.3 percent. Increasing distance with 1000 kilo-metres decreases demand for exports with approximately 16.6 percent. If the country is a wine producer demand is about 85 percent lower compared to non producing countries.</p><p>The results are in line with the theories on export demand, however among the wine producing countries there are large differences among countries in their demand for Chilean wine. One reason could be different volume of own pro-duction, another cultural associations to domestic products making preferences biased towards the domestic variety.</p>

A detailed english description (three pages) is enclosed in the publication. / Die heutige Menge an textuellen Informationen erfordert vom Interessenten eine adäquate Selektion und Rezeption. Als printmedientechnischer Beitrag zur Lösung dieser Problematik wird das Book-on-Demand- (BoD) Verfahren in Verbindung mit einer individuellen Auswahl von Buchinhalten genutzt. Dazu wird in der vorliegenden Arbeit ein Formalismus entwickelt, der im Rahmen eines BoD-Workflows die kontextspezifische logische Neustrukturierung von Einheiten eines bestehenden elektronischen Buches automatisiert. Als Grundlage dient das aus der Graphentheorie bekannte Modell des minimalen Spannbaums (MSB). Bei der Bildung des MSB werden vor allem die primäre, vom Autor des bestehenden Buches vorgegebene, logische Struktur und eine dem Buch zu Grunde liegende Taxonomie ausgewertet. Für eine prototypische Implementierung des formalen Modells wird eine geeignete Softwarearchitektur für XML-kodierte Bücher entwickelt. Die Bewertung der resultierenden Buchgliederungen wird durch neuartige Metriken für logische Strukturen unterstützt.

This study contributes to the literature on national long-distance travel demand modeling by providing an analysis of households' annual destination choices and time allocation patterns for long-distance leisure travel purposes. An annual vacation destination choice and time allocation model is formulated to simultaneously predict the different destinations that a household visits and the time it spends on each of these visited destinations, in a year. The model takes the form of a Multiple Discrete-Continuous Extreme Value (MDCEV) structure (Bhat, 2005; Bhat, 2008). The model assumes that households allocate their annual vacation time to visit one or more destinations in a year to maximize the utility derived from their choices. The model framework accommodates variety-seeking in households' vacation destination choices in that households can potentially visit a variety of destinations rather than spending all of their annual vacation time for visiting a single destination. At the same time, the model accommodates corner solutions to recognize that households may not necessarily visit all available destinations. An annual vacation time budget is also considered to recognize that households may operate under time budget constraints. Further, the paper proposes a variant of the MDCEV model that avoids the prediction of unrealistically small amounts of time allocation to the chosen alternatives. To do so, the continuously non-linear utility functional form in the MDCEV framework is replaced with a combination of a linear and non-linear form. The empirical data for this analysis comes from the 1995 American Travel Survey Data, with the U.S. divided into 210 alternative destinations. The empirical analysis provides important insights into the determinants of households' leisure destination choice and time allocation patterns. An appealing feature of the proposed model is its applicability in a national, long-distance leisure travel demand model system. The annual destination choices and time allocations predicted by this model can be used for subsequent analysis of the number of trips made (in a year) to each destination and the travel choices for each trip. The outputs from such a national travel modeling framework can be used to obtain national-level Origin-Destination demand tables for long-distance leisure travel.

The implicit assumption in conventional inventory models is that the stored products maintain the same utility forever, i.e., they can be stored for an infinite period of time without losing their value or characteristics. However, generally speaking, almost all products experience some sort of deterioration over time. Some products have very small deterioration rates, and henceforth the effect of such deterioration can be neglected. Some products may be subject to significant rates of deterioration. Fruits, vegetables, drugs, alcohol and radioactive materials are examples that can experience significant deterioration during storage. Therefore the effect of deterioration must be explicitly taken into account in developing inventory models for such products. In most existing deteriorating inventory models, time is treated as a continuous variable, which is not exactly the case in practice. In real-life problems time factor is always measured on a discrete scale only, i.e. in terms of complete units of days, weeks, etc. In this research, we present several discrete-in-time inventory models and identify optimal ordering policies for a single deteriorating product by minimizing the expected overall costs over the planning horizon. The various conditions have been considered, e.g. periodic review, time-varying deterioration rate, waiting-time-dependent partial backlogging, time-dependent demand, stochastic demand etc. The objective of our research is two-fold: (a) To obtain optimal order quantity and useful insights for the inventory control of a single deteriorating product over a discrete time horizon with deterministic demand, variable deterioration rates and waiting-time-dependent partial backlogging ratios; (b) To identify optimal ordering policy for a single deteriorating product over a finite horizon with stochastic demand and partial backlogging. The explicit ordering policy will be developed for some special cases. Through computational experiments and sensitivity analysis, a thorough and insightful understanding of deteriorating inventory management will be achieved.

published_or_final_version / Education / Master / Master of Education