The objective of this diploma thesis is to describe and to complexly evaluate Chinas one child policy from its introduction in 1979 till its abandonment in 2015. Theoretical part of thesis offers a detailed description of the policy, its application in real life, circumstances and aims that led to the implementation of the policy. Applied part of thesis analyses its effect on the fertility rate, population growth and economic growth. According to the results of this analysis one child policy helped to decline Chinas fertility rate and population growth, however its impact is just partial. The decline of Chinese population growth then contributed to the economic growth; my estimate is that it composed 40 % of average annual growth of real GDP per capita. One child policy is also responsible for raising sex ratio and ageing of population in China. These demographic problems let to its replacement by two child policy that probably wont solve these problems.

京都大学 / 新制・課程博士 / 博士(経済学) / 甲第22949号 / 経博第624号 / 新制||経||294(附属図書館) / 京都大学大学院経済学研究科経済学専攻 / (主査)教授 柴田 章久, 准教授 安井 大真, 教授 照山 博司 / 学位規則第4条第1項該当 / Doctor of Economics / Kyoto University / DGAM

<p>Over the past three decades, the phenomenon of children's health in China has been marked by a co-existence of overweight and underweight. As the primary institution for a child, family is an opportune place for child malnutrition intervention. By advancing a framework that addresses the contextual factors which shape the heterogeneity of socioeconomic gradients of child overweight/obesity, this dissertation has sought to understand the channels through which access to family resources influences child overweight/obesity in China. Based on these developed understandings, I identified the mechanisms by which having any younger siblings and three generation living together or proximately affect child malnutrition in China. Using data drawn from China Health and Nutrition Survey, this dissertation uncovered remarkable differences in multiple levels of contextual factors that shape a child's risk of overweight/obesity and underweight in China as compared to Western society. China's stage of economic development together with the drastically increasing income inequality has created an ever-increasing socioeconomic gap in child overweight/obesity, especially after 1997. This finding confirmed the position of the Ecological System framework that access to obesogenic environment is much more important than willpower based on knowledge in shaping one's obesity-related risk behavior. Although the fertility level has been lowered by One Child Policy, resource dilution effect still affects girls' nutrition status, especially for those exposed to poverty and food insecurity. Children in the care of grandparents are healthier, probably due to the generally low degree of access to obesogenic foods and a closer intergenerational relationship that facilitates effective communication and promotes healthy lifestyle formation.</p> / Dissertation

作為世界上人口最多的國家，中國曾經是世界上人口增長速度最快的國家之一。為了減輕人口過快增長對經濟社會發展的不利影響，中國在20世紀70年代開始實施旨在減少人口數量增長和提高人口素質的人口和計劃生育政策，這項政策的實施以及經濟社會的快速發展，使得中國在短短20多年的時間內走過了發達國家幾百年才能完成的人口轉變歷程。 本研究評估過去中共人口政策的演變，以及對各方面的正負面影響。中國經濟改革開放以後，提倡一胎化政策的實施對中國的人口發展有著重大影響。其最直接的影響是加快了中國人口由高增長向低增長方式的轉變，促進了中國生育率的下降。隨著生育率的下降，給中國的經濟增長帶也來了很強的效應。另外，提高婦女地位、就業壓力的減緩、健康、教育方面也有一定程度的改善。本文透過對人口問題的深入探討，找出問題存在的癥結。對當前經濟和社會發展影響最大的人口問題主要包括幾個：一是人口性別比例失調問題；二是年齡結構變化相伴隨的人口老齡化問題：三是與前兩個問題有密切關係的獨生子女問題：四是四二一綜合症。 / Abstract China is not only the most populous nation in the world, the country was also among one of the fastest population growing countries. To reduce and minimize the negative impacts to economic and society from rapid population growth, China started implementing various population policies to elevate population superiority by decelerating population growth in the late1970’s, after 20 years such policies allowed China made swift and significant economic and society progresses, which is unprecedented among the developed nations, such changes and swiftness might take few hundred years to transform and accomplish. This research evaluates the evolution in China’s population policies, and focus on the positive and negative aspects from implementing such policies. After China opened its door to the world, the realization of “one-child” policy has affected China’s population growth drastically. The one-child policy has directly impacted on the transformation from previous high population growth, to current low growth rate, it also, deceased the birth rate in China. The result of the birth rate reduction also facilitated the current China’s robust economic growth. Furthermore, it elevated women’s social status and lightened the employment competitiveness, and there are significant improvement in health and education. This paper, thoroughly analyze the predicaments in population and attempt to seek the rationale for their existence. The current economic and society issues involved the following: 1. population unbalance in male and female proportions, 2. the change in age structures towards majority elderly population, 3. problems from one-child policy, 4. issues with “four-two-one” syndrome.

As a Chinese filmmaker, I feel obligated to reveal a true story about Chinese international students. Through my subjects and my stories, I am planning to express the messages that both adapting to a new culture and paying the financial cost of a foreign education have never been simple, but we will never give up our dreams.

一胎化政策起始於1978年，在改革開放政策的年代，作為一項跨時代的政策，它改變了中國人口、社會的發展，也撤徹底底的改變了中國婦女的生命面貌。政策的出發點是為了國家的需求，中共宣稱，一胎化政策不但可以解決中國社會沈重的人口壓力，也可以使婦女藉由降低再生產壓力而投入生產，從而提昇婦女地位。表面上看起來，國家發展需求與重視女性地位的性別意識型態需求在一胎化政策中得到很好的理論結合。 但是當我們進一步檢視這些政策時，卻發現有許多規定存在著矛盾之處，也許再生產和生產之間的關聯並不是這麼簡單的加減問題，政策中所呈現的婦女與國家關係也不如想見的客觀中立，在許多政策無法顧及或自圓其說之處，傳統的父權觀點隱隱然出現在政策的判準中發揮影響。本文企圖自女性主義立場論的觀點出發，以國家生物性發展需求、性別意識型態需求與文化上的父權需求這三股力量，討論一胎化政策中的矛盾與不協調性。發現在一胎化政策中存在著一個邏輯，它希望藉由婦女再生產的降低促進婦女進入公領域的生產，並進而提高婦女地位，如此一來，一胎化政策推行時所面臨到的性別選擇性問題也將因婦女地位提高而達到解決，即便是政策面臨到父權障礙時也是依循這樣的邏輯繼續進行。然而，這種以經濟角度出發的論述其實是一方面是以男性的標準判定性別的生育偏好來自於女性的生產力不足，另外一方面則窄化了再生產的意義，將再生產只等同於生育，忽略了婦女在私領域中所負擔的家務勞動以及人口撫養。國家自認為中立，藉由胎兒性別檢定的禁止將性別選擇性生育的責任移轉到個別的家庭，並且在生產力的論述上將偏好生育的問題本質化，而父權的壓力也至此被零碎化、個別化，成為個別婦女與家庭必須獨自面對的困境。這種過度將經濟與女性地位相聯繫的論述形成中共一胎化政策中一種自相矛盾的說法，無論中共多麼強調對於性別的重視與敏感，但這種矛盾若沒有進一步的解決與釐清，終將成為國家邁向性別主流化發展的障礙。 / One child policy have begin in 1978, in the era of reform and opening to the outside world, it have change the Chinese population, development of the society, and the life of Chinese women in the bottom completely. The starting point of the policy is for the demand of the country, the Communist Party of China declares, one child policy can solve Chinese society in population pressure ,also can make woman by is it produce and then pressure and put into production to reduce, thus promote the woman status . Seem on the surface, it have combined well in the One Child Policy and sex ideology demand that the country develops the demand and pays attention to women's status. But when we look over these policies further, it have a lot of regulation have contradictory place to find, perhaps it’s not such simple question of production and reproduction, the relationship between women and the state is not so good as the objective neutrality wanted to see in the policy, in the place where a lot of policies can't be taken into account or justified oneself, the traditional patriarchy view gives play to in the declaring accurate of the policy to influence indistinctly and rightly. This text attempts take the view of Standpoint Theory, discuss the contradiction and harmony in One Child Policy in three ways: country development, sex ideology and patriarchy in culture.There is a logic in the One Child Policy , it hopes to promote women to enter production of the public field with the reducing of the woman reproduction, improve woman status, thus,the sex selective birth would be solve by improving women status. However, this kind of argument is actually judging women’s production with the male standard , in the other hand, it is insufficient to explain the meaning of reproduction, only equates the reproduction with bearing, have neglected the house work and population that women bear in the private field.The country stand neutrality and transfer the responsibility that the sex selective birth to the specific family , and the pressure of the patriarchy is melted individually, become the predicament that specific woman and family must face alone.

L’objectif de cette recherche est d’explorer comment les solidarités familiales, en particulier autour des parents vieillissants, se concrétisent dans les familles immigrantes chinoises. Ces solidarités familiales renvoient à un double contexte dont il faut tenir compte et qui constitue la spécificité de notre objet de recherche, à savoir celui de la migration internationale d’une part et de la politique de l’enfant unique en Chine, d’autre part. La méthode qualitative est utilisée dans cette recherche. Un échantillon de 14 participants ont été recrutés et rencontrés pour des entrevues. Le statut d’être immigrant, la catégorie d’immigration, être enfant unique ou non, et le sexe sont choisis comme des critères de sélection. La grille d’entretien, de type semi-directif couvrait les thèmes suivants : la motivation à immigrer en considérant des parents âgés, l’installation à Montréal, et des pratiques de solidarité familiale dans la vie quotidienne. Le cadre théorique mobilisé est celui de la solidarité intergénérationnelle proposée par Bengtson et al.. Ce cadre distingue six dimensions dans ces solidarités, à savoir la solidarité normative, affective, consensuelle, associative, fonctionnelle et structurelle. Les résultats montrent que l’inégalité de développement entre la Chine et le Canada est le facteur le plus important qui encourage la migration entre ces deux pays, ceci au prix d’une dispersion du réseau potentiel de solidarité. La surpopulation, la relation complexe au marché du travail, et la pollution, sont tous considérés comme des « push » facteurs de la Chine qui poussent à l’émigration. Du côté du Canada, des « pull » facteurs sont l’éducation, les ouvertures du marché du travail, un bon environnement, et une politique d’immigration incitative. Les immigrants chinois recourent beaucoup aux solidarités associatives et fonctionnelles. La communication transnationale et des voyages de retour sont deux formes importantes de la solidarité associative. Néanmoins, le mode et la fréquence de communication diffèrent beaucoup d’une personne à l’autre, ce qui est révélateur des formes de solidarité normative et de solidarité affective avec des membres de famille en Chine. Quant à la solidarité fonctionnelle, elle prend la forme d’échanges financiers, de « grandparenting » et les soins donnés aux parents âgés. Néanmoins, les immigrants chinois sont souvent forcés de faire certains compromis dans la mise en œuvre des solidarités car ils sont tributaires des limites inhérentes au contexte de migration et de la politique de l’enfant unique. / This study aims to explore how family solidarity, especially pertaining to elderly parents, is materialized in Chinese immigrant families in Montreal. These solidarities are restricted to the dual-context of international migration and the one-child policy, which distinguishes this study from others. The qualitative research method is used in this study. Fourteen participants were recruited for the interviews based on criteria such as their residence status in Canada, their immigration category, their gender, and their family structure (whether have siblings or not). The semi-directed interview grid was designed with the following themes: motivation to immigrate in consideration of the need of care for elderly parents, establishment in Montreal, and daily activities of family solidarity. To design the study and to analyze the data, the intergenerational solidarity theory from Bengtson et al., which is composed of six dimensions (normative, affective, consensual, associative, functional, and structural solidarity), was used. The results show that the different level of development between China and Canada is the core-motivating factor of migration between these two countries. The over-sized population, the complicated relationship in the job market, and the high-level of pollution are considered as “push” factors that drive people to emigrate from China. As for Canada, its “pull” factors are education, relatively simple relationship in job market, good environment, and its relatively welcoming immigration policy. The results also show that Chinese immigrants depend a lot on associative and functional solidarity while enacting transnational solidarity. Transnational communication and return visits are two important dimensions of associative solidarity. However, the method and the frequency of such a communication varies from person to person, which is strongly related to normative solidarity and affective solidarity with non-migrant parents. As for functional solidarity, it is usually manifested by financial exchange, grandparenting, and elderly care. However, Chinese immigrants have to compromise somehow while enacting functional solidarity because of the limited capacity determined by the two context of this study, namely international migration and the one-child policy.

This dissertation explores the mechanisms of the increasing female crime in China from the effect of the one-child policy, which is treated herein as a natural experiment. Data reveal that the women’s share of documented crime dramatically increased after the mid-1990s when the first one-child generation reached the age of legal responsibility. This change reflects the interplay of the behavioral change and the net-widening effect. The increasing criminality of the one-child generation is attributable to the gap between the equal gender expectations of the individual, which has been reshaped by the unique socialization practices under the influence of the policy, and a stubbornly unequal gender hierarchy in the society. As a result, the one-child-generation women who disproportionately suffer the resulting strains are more likely to become involved in property and occupational crime as the alternative means to fulfill their aspirations for economic success. Additionally, the effect of the policy affects not only the individual gender roles of the only children but also their peers who have siblings through the intermediary of a culture shift. Therefore, the policy has changed the behavior of a whole new generation through the process of socialization and the lag in the structural change. The net-widening effect is another pathway of the unequal gender structure and ideologies to the increasing female crime. Moral panic associated with the emergence of diverse forms of female offenses lead to an inordinate degree of adverse attention focused upon the one-child-generation women by criminal justice professionals. The increased criminalization of sexuality brought an increasing number of the one-child-generation women into conflict with the law, usually for prostituting themselves for easy money to fulfill their material satisfaction. Consequently, the one-child-generation female offenders are perceived as “doubly deviant” from the law and from the socially prescribed ideology of gender and are, therefore, punished more harshly than before by the criminal justice system. This dissertation not only explores an understudied country in criminological research but also seeks to apply the findings to a broad sphere to explain the increasing female crime that has been observed worldwide. It disentangles the theoretical controversy in explaining the increase in the share of crime committed by women in general by embedding the argument in a multidimensional gender role repertoire.

中國是世界上人口最多的國家，公元2000年已達12.6億人，占全球的五分之一強，因此，中國的人口政策及其成敗受到全球普遍的關注。其人口政策50餘年來的發展，呈現著左右搖擺的反覆現象。 　　1971年~1998年實施計劃生育政策期間，人口效益共計少生了3.38億人；經濟效益則為國家和家庭節省了7.4萬億元；社會效益有：1.減緩社會的就業壓力；2.促進教育事業的發展；3.改善健康狀況；4.提高婦女地位，以及其他的資源效益和環境效益等等。 　　計劃生育的負面效應則有：1.「四．二．一」綜合症；2.人口高齡化；3.獨生子女教養問題；4.性別比失調；5.人口素質逆淘汰；6.徵兵困難；7.體壇後繼乏人；8.幹部與群眾之間矛盾日益尖銳。 　　對大陸未來人口政策可能走向的研析： 　　甲案為：全大陸普遍允許雙方為獨生子女的夫婦可以生育二孩，此方案影響最小。城鎮夫婦雙方為獨生子女的概率將從目前不到1％升至2020 年的40％，農村則一直為1％。據預測，2010年總人口為13.8億，2040年達到峰值15.5 億後進入負增長，2050年減至15.2億。 　　乙案為：全大陸城鄉只要一方是獨生子女的夫婦（包括雙方都是獨生子女）可以生育二孩。此方案影響較大，據估計，城鎮夫婦中一方為獨生子女從2000年的15％增至2020年的87％，農村則從1％增加到19％。2010年總人口為13.88億，峰值在2045年將接近15.9億。 　　丙為折衷方案，即在城鎮允許雙方是獨生子女的夫婦、在農村允許一方是獨生子女的夫婦可以生二孩，影響介於甲乙案。即2010年為13.77~13.88億，峰值在2040~2045年約為15.5~15.9億然後進入負增長。 / Presently, China is the most populated country in the world. Its population has reached 1.26 billion in 2000-more than one fifth of the worldwide population. As a result, the outcome of China’s population policy has become an issue of global concern. However, China has been swung back and forth on its "birth control" policy in the past fifty years. 　　During 1971~1998, when Chinese government enforced the "one child" policy, the birth rate has effectively reduced the population growth by 338 million, and a saving of a total of $74 zillion dollars for the government and the people. The society also benefits on: (1.) less pressure and competition on the employment ; (2.) more educational resources for the people ; (3.) more improvement on health condition ; ( 4.) a promotion of social status for women ; (5.) better distribution of other resource and preservation of the environment. 　　The downsides from the practice of the "one child" policy are: (1.) a syndrome from the [4-2-1] family structure ; (2.) aging of the population; (3.) difficulty in discipline the single child of the family; (4.) inappropriate gender ratio ; (5.) reverse selection of population quality ; (6.) difficulty in military draft ; (7) inferior outplays in athletic performance ; (8) confliction between birth control administration officers and the general public. 　　Based on the research, three population policies China may adapt in the future. To be qualified to have two children, 　　A) For families in both villages and cities, allow parent who were both from single child families to have a second child. However, this scheme has the least impact with a predict population of 1.38 billion in 2010. In the long term, the low rate of birth will create a peak population of 1.55 billion followed by a negative population growth after 2040. 　　B) For families in both villages and cities, parents who were either or both from single child family are allowed to have a second child. However, this scheme has most impact with a predict population of 1.388 billion in 2010. In the long term, the low rate of birth will create a peak population of 1.59 billion followed by a negative population growth after 2045. 　　C) For families in cities, parents who were both from single child families, and for families in villages, parents who are either or both from single child family, are allowed to have a second child. However, this scheme has the mediate impact with a predict population of 1.377~1.388 billion in 2010. In the long term, the low rate of birth will create a peak population of 1.55~1.59 billion followed by a negative population growth after 2040~2045.

Evaluation of China's population policy Abstract This thesis discusses China's population policy and its aim is to evaluate various programs and analyze their effectiveness. The methodological part describes the base of data and indicators by which the influence of population policy can be measured. The literary review is followed by an analytical part that deals with the development of fertility in the context of population policies, postponing marriage and changing reproductive plans, which are crucial for future policy development. The effectiveness of these programs in China is assessed by comparing the effectiveness of policies in Vietnam and Japan, as well as using selected indicators. An integral part of the thesis is an analysis of the consequences of policies and an outline of possible future development. Based on the results of the analysis, China's population policy has been effective as it has achieved its goal of reducing fertility. On the other hand, the one-child policy has caused many negative consequences, which the new universal two-child policy introduced in 2016 aims to reduce. Key words: population policy, one-child policy, universal two-child policy, reproduction plans, effectiveness of programs, negative consequences