A citricultura brasileira é vista como atividade razoavelmente rentável no longo prazo, mas caracterizada por preocupante nível de risco. Este trabalho buscou avaliar a rentabilidade e o risco da atividade, sugerindo como forma de melhor gerenciá-los a provisão de recursos. A análise que confronta risco e retorno da atividade utiliza o método do Valor Presente Líquido - VPL. A identificação dos principais fatores (fontes de risco) responsáveis pela variabilidade do fluxo de caixa foi feita através da análise das contas do fluxo de caixa da atividade e pela estimação do modelo de auto- regressão vetorial de previsão para definir as distribuições conjuntas desses preços. As distribuições de probabilidade para a produtividade nos 19 anos de vida útil do pomar foram definidas através do teste de ajustamento de Kolmogorov-Smirnov. Utilizando o modelo do VPL foram simulados 10.000 possíveis valores para os fatores de risco que substituídos nas contas do fluxo de caixa geraram 10.000 possíveis valores de rentabilidade para a atividade. A análise do investimento no pomar de laranja mostrou que os principais fatores de risco para a citricultura são os preços recebidos pela fruta, os preços pagos pelos insumos e a produtividade das plantas. O investimento se apresentou viável economicamente para uma taxa real de desconto de 4% ao ano, com 0,01% de chances de se obter VPL<0; já, para uma taxa de desconto de 6% ao ano há 16% de chances de se obter VPL<0; e, para uma taxa de desconto de 8% ao ano, o investimento passa a ser inviável economicamente apresentando apenas 3% de chances de se obter VPL>0. Embora a rentabilidade média esperada tenha se apresentado remuneradora (6,6% ao ano), o produtor poderá necessitar de recursos para suportar os anos que apresentarem fluxo de caixa negativo. Para gerenciar os riscos do projeto, foram sugeridos dois procedimentos para o cálculo da provisão, um baseado no risco de VPL<0 e outro na distribuição das receitas líquidas acumuladas capitalizadas negativas. O valor a ser provisionado para que o produtor fique protegido contra 95% dos possíveis déficits de caixa representa 17% do montante a ser aplicado nos 3 primeiros anos do projeto. Porém, o montante a provisionar depende dos recursos que o investidor disponha-se a aplicar a mais no projeto ou qual o limite de crédito com que ele pode contar para cobrir suas deficiências de caixa. / The brazilian citrus industry has seen as a reasonably profitable business in the long term, but characterized by worrying level of risk. This study below aimed to evaluate the profitability and risk of this business, suggesting that the best to manage them is the provision of resources. Net Present Value - NPV was the method used to confront risk and return of citrus industry. Identification of the main factors (sources of risk) that may cause the variability of cash flows was made by examining accounts of cash flow activity and estimating vector autoregression forecast prediction to define joint distributions. Productivity distributions in 19-year life of orchad were adjusted by Kolmogorov-Smirvov test. Using NPV model were simulated 10,000 possible values for risk factors which replaced in accounts of the cash flow generates 10,000 possible values to business return. Orange orchard investment analysis showed that the major risk factors for citrus are: prices received by fruit, prices paid for inputs and productivity of plants. The investment has been shown economically feasible based on a discount rate of 4% per year, with chance of 0.01% to get NPV <0, 16% chance of getting NPV <0 using a discount rate of 6% per year and using a discount rate of 8% per year the investment becomes economically unfeasible, it means only 3% chance of getting NPV> 0. Although the expected average return has been shown profitable (6.6% per year), producers may need resources to support negative cash flow years. In order to manage project risks, we suggest two procedures to calculate the provision: a risk-based on NPV <0 and distribution of accumulated capitalized and negative net income values. Provision value to protect the producer against 95% of possible annual deficits represents 17% of first 3 years investment value. However, the total amount to be provisioned will depend on investors further resources available to apply in the project or based on credit limit available to cover cash deficits.

Orientador: Rubens Monti / Resumo: ---- / Mestre

The study presented here consists in an original piece of work to better understand complex food packaging interactions. The majority of investigations on food polymer interactions related to orange juice and this provided a good base to our study (Literature reviews: cf. Chapters 1a and b). Additionally a rather remarkable finding in 1994 was that limonin, a trace bitter material found in some varieties of orange juice was rapidly absorbed by highly plasticised polyvinyl chloride (PVC plastisol) (Chapter 2). Several commercial absorbants are available for debittering, relying on limonin absorption on the large surface area of the highly porous absorbant pellets. However, the absorptive properties of the smooth plastisols apparently relied on a different mechanism. Limonin is a very large (470.5 g/mol) compound, but some preliminary experiments with another much smaller orange juice constituent d- of absorbates in plastisols, methods used earlier (Moisan 1980, Holland and Santangelo 1988) to measure solubilities and diffusion constants in packaging films could be advantageously used to survey these properties in a wide range of materials, including model compounds of various types, and a number of compounds which may be found in citrus juices (Chapters 3, 4 and 5). Experimentally, the method found most suitable was to use a ‘test film’ of pure plastisol which was wrapped tightly on both sides by a similar ‘supply film’ blended with 1 Molar test material (also called ‘absorbate’), setting up a concentration gradient. The inner test film was removed at regular intervals (minutes to hours) to measure (mainly by weighing) the uptake of the test reagent with time. Rather unexpectedly, it was found in a number of cases that the test film lost weight, either from the beginning, or after a period of time. Three main types of behaviour were identified: Type A lost weight from the beginning and over a long period of time, Type B gained weight initially and then lost weight, and Type C gained weight until a steady state was reached. Often the maximum, or near maximum, mass increase occurred within around 100 minutes, indicating a very rapid, liquid-like diffusion mechanism, in harmony with the rapid uptake of d-limonene and limonin. The major parameters of interest with these compounds are their diffusion rates and their solubilities, and in the presence of aqueous media (orange juice and other foodstuffs) the partition coefficient between the plastisol and water, which is related to the hydrophobicity function LogP for the compound. The major complicating factor in these measurements is the observation that the plasticiser materials themselves also migrate, in the reverse direction, because of the lower effective concentration in the supply film. This effect tends to be small, but is one explanation for the mass loss observed above, and cannot be ignored over the long term, nor in its practical applications to contamination in foods. There are many possible applications for the techniques described above. The removal or addition of compounds in food packaging itself is one. Upgrading foods, such as orange juice, commercially, is another. In many cases ‘scalping’ off-flavours or other minor components takes place exclusively through solid or liquid contact with the packaging. The removal from the headspace measured by the current gas permeation methods is irrelevant for the vast numbers of involatile, but easily diffusable compounds. For such compounds these novel applications are simple and rapid, require little specialised equipment, and fill a niche in the armoury of food and packaging chemists. / Doctor of Philosophy (PhD)

Groupers are an important mariculture fish in Taiwan and Southeast Asian countries. The rapidly growing orange spotted grouper (Epinephelus coioides) has experienced relatively severe bacterial disease problems. The proliferation of pathogens in fish can be suppressed by commensal microbiota. In this context, probiotic seem to offer an attractive alternative. Bacillus subtilisis a probiotic bacteriumthat is administered in diet to suppress proliferation of pathogens. In the present study, E.coioideswere fed for 6 months with diets containing B.subtilis at 0 (control), 0.1 % and 1 %. Percent weight gain and feed efficiency of the 0.1 and 1 % groups were significantlybetter than the control group. The innate cellular response, respiratory burst of the fish fed the 1 % and 0.1 % diet was significantly higher compared to the control group on 10 or 20 days after feeding, and even moresignificanton 30 days.ProbioticBacillus subtilis increased the fish¡¦s intestinal microbial diversity as measured by visible band number and Shannon diversity indexin DGGE analysis. Probiotic Bacillus subtilis also stimulated the population of bacterial species likePaenibacillussp,Lactobacillus oenistrain 59 b, and Methilacidophiluminfernorumstrain V4 that beneficial for Epinephelus coioides. The best dose of probiotic Bacillus subtilis based on growth performances, innate cellular responses and profile of microbiota in fish intestines is 0.1 %, which showed equal efficacy as the 1% diet.

Project (D. Min.)--Trinity Evangelical Divinity School, 1982. / Abstract. Includes bibliographical references (leaves 157-161).

Ovarian cancer is the fifth leading cause of cancer related deaths among women. Early detection improves the chances of survival following diagnosis, and new imaging modalities have the potential to reduce deaths due to this disease. The confocal microendoscope (CME) is a non-destructive in-vivo imaging device for visualization of the ovaries that operates in real-time. Two components of the CME system are evaluated in this paper, and initial results from an ongoing clinical trial are presented.Fiber-optic imaging bundles are used in the CME imaging catheter to relay images over distances of up to 20 feet. When detecting fluorescent signals from investigated tissue, any fluorescence in the system can potentially reduce contrast in images. The emission and transmission properties of three commercially available fiber optic imaging bundles were evaluated. Emission maps of fluorescence from bundles were generated at multiple excitation wavelengths to determine the profile and amount of fluorescence present in bundles manufactured by Sumitomo, Fujikura, and Schott. Results are also presented that show the variation of transmittance as a function of illumination angle in these bundles. Users of high-resolution fiber-optic imaging bundles should be aware of these properties and take them into account during system design.Contrast is improved in images obtained with the CME through the application of topical dyes. Acridine orange (AO) and SYTO 16 are two fluorescent stains that are used to show the size, shape, and distribution of cell nuclei. Unfortunately, little is known about the effects of these dyes on living tissues. This study was undertaken to evaluate the effects of dye treatment on peritoneal tissues in mice. Seventy-five Balb/c mice were split into five groups of fifteen and given peritoneal injections of dye or saline. The proportions of negative outcomes for the control and test groups were compared using confidence intervals and the Fisher's exact test. No significant difference was determined between the groups. These data provide preliminary results on determining the effect of these dyes on living tissues.Preliminary results of a clinical trial are presented showing in-vivo use of the CME for imaging of the ovaries. This is the first portion of a two part study to demonstrate the clinical diagnosis potential of the CME system. A mobile version of the bench-top CME was modified to be used in the clinic. Fluorescein sodium is used as an initial contrast agent in these studies to demonstrate fluorescence imaging. Twenty patients were successfully imaged, and results of this study have allowed progression to a clinical validation study showing the diagnostic capabilities of the CME.

Vitamin C is an essential water soluble vitamin found mainly in fruits, vegetables and their derivatives. Orange juice is a popular thirst quencher and a convenient way to reach the daily recommended intake of vitamin C. The aim of this thesis was to determine how the vitamin C content in orange juice is affected by storage temperature and oxygen content in the product. Bottles of orange juice were stored at different temperatures. Regular orange juice was compared to juice where dissolved oxygen in product water had been decreased before mixing the juice. One other aim was to determine the efficiency of a stress test room where a higher temperature was supposed to simulate longer storage time. The study showed a larger non-linear loss of vitamin C over time in the bottles stored at the higher temperatures. The samples with less dissolved oxygen showed a higher vitamin C content after five and six months of storage in room temperature. For a storage time up to one week the loss of vitamin C in the stress test does not appear to be equal to the corresponding storage time in room temperature.KeywordsOrange juice, / Vitamin C är en livsnödvändig vattenlöslig vitamin som främst förekommer i grönsaker, frukter och produkter framställda från dessa. Apelsinjuice är en populär törstsläckare och ett enkelt sätt att få i sig sin dagliga dos C-vitamin. Syftet med denna rapport är att undersöka hur halten C-vitamin i apelsinjuice från Kiviks Musteri ändras beroende på lagringstemperatur och syrehalt i produktvatten. Apelsinjuice tillverkad från kranvatten jämfördes med juice tillverkad med vatten där syrehalten minskats genom kokning. Ett annat syfte var att fastställa effektiviteten för ett lagringsrum som simulerade en längre lagringsperiod genom att höja temperaturen. Resultaten visade att det var en större ickelinjär förlust av C-vitamin i flaskor som lagras vid en högre temperatur. Juiceflaskor med mindre mängd löst syre visade en lägre förlust av C-vitamin efter fem respektive sex månaders lagring i rumstemperatur. Förlusten av C-vitamin i juice lagrad en vecka i rummet med högre temperatur var ej den mängd som förutspåddes enligt företagets modell.

This thesis examines Canada West’s colonial perceptions and reactions towards the Fenian Brotherhood in the Confederation era. Its focus is on the impact of the Fenians on the contemporary public mind, beginning in the fall of 1864 and culminating with the Fenian Raid on the Niagara frontier in June 1866. Newspapers, sermons, first-hand accounts, and popular poems and books from the time suggest the Fenians had a significant impact on the public mind by nurturing and reflecting the province’s social and defensive concerns, and the Raid on Canada West was used by contemporaries after the fact to promote Confederation and support a young Canadian identity. / Thesis (Master, History) -- Queen's University, 2009-09-24 00:17:49.563

This work studied the effects of step size, angle, spindle speed, and feed rate on the external surface roughening, orange peel effect, observed in single point incremental forming (SPIF). Experimental results were used to estimate models to categorize the extent of orange peel roughening based on visual inspection and on surface roughness measurements. Tests were performed at very high rotational speeds and feed rates and showed various influences on surface roughness, thickness distribution, and grain size. Friction at the tool-sheet interface was also studied with a completely instrumented tool that measured and recorded torsion and forming forces through deformation strains. Coefficients of friction for each part were determined and through statistical analysis, the influence of each of the following forming parameters was established: material thickness, formed shape, tool size, step size, forming speeds (feed rate and rotational speed), and forming angle. Multidimensional response surfaces were generated to show when and under what condition friction was minimized. A new contact zone representation for SPIF was also established. This formulation used common forming parameters and geometric considerations to determine the contacting zone between the sheet and the tool. Area models were proposed for both the tangential and torsional component of friction in SPIF. / Thesis (Master, Mechanical and Materials Engineering) -- Queen's University, 2010-02-01 16:47:17.249

The taxonomic status, distribution and ecology of the herpetofauna of the Orange Free State are discussed, based on the examination of 10 096 specimens housed in various southern African museums. The majority of specimens were collected during the years 1972 - 1978 and 1983 - 1992, and are housed at the National Museum, Bloemfontein. A total of 25 amphibian and 95 reptilian (one translocated species) forms have been determined as occurring in the Orange Free State, 12 (three amphibians, nine reptiles) of which are new (or recently published) records for the province. An additional 10 amphibian and 28 reptilian forms have been determined as occurring nearby but extralimitally to the O.F.S., and several of these forms are expected to occur in the province. New distributional records have resulted in the amendment of the ranges of several species. Detailed taxonomic data on new material, including rare species, have been given. Some problem areas in the taxonomy of O.F.S. taxa have been higlighted. An analysis of habit utilization indicated that 84,0% of amphibians and 61,1% of reptiles are terricolous, whereas up to 21,5% of reptiles are rupicolous. The majority of snakes (72,2%) are terrestrial in habits, but 13,9% are fossorial. More than half of all lizards (52,8%) are terrestrial, although 34,6% are rupicolous. A total of six amphibian and 27 reptile forms utilize inactive termitaria as a microhabitat, including several basically terrestrial forms. Snake forms were particularly well represented in termitaria, 60,6% of all forms known from the O.F.S. having been recorded from inactive termitaria. General features of the ecology of O.F.S. amphibians and reptiles have also been discussed. The biogeographical analysis indicated that O.F.S. amphibian forms can be classified into one of nine range clusters (common patterns of distribution), and reptiles into 13 such cluster groups. By testing these classifications by means of a transect through the northern O.F.S. (from eastern to western borders), it was determined that a fairly distinct east-west subtraction of amphibian and reptilian species and subspecies occurs in the O.F.S. Clustering of range boundaries and high species and subspecies diversity at the western and eastern ends of the transect zone suggest dynamic biogeographical situations occurring in those areas - the western group being associated with the transition from grassland to bushveld, and the eastern group associated with the transition from Highveld Grassland to Drakensberg Mountains. The general eastern and western groupings of taxa appear to be associated with the cooler, wetter and mountainous east vs the warmer, drier and lower-lying west, respectively. Despite a great deal of collecting having been conducted in the O.F.S. from 1972 to 1992, an analysis of the number of taxa collected in each quarter-degree unit in the O.F.S. indicated that additional collecting would be required in order to conduct effectively a mathematically-based biogeographical analysis. / Thesis (M.Sc.)-University of Natal, 1992.