This Ph.D. thesis comprises of two parts. Part I develops a framework to provide insights into the understanding of several political macro-economy issues related to fiscal policy making. This framework links the overall macroeconomic performance to the public spending and borrowing decisions. The key feature of this framework is that it makes a distinction between productive (e.g. public investment) and non-productive public spending (e.g. popular spending). It is shown that a high level of political instability may lead to myopic and populist policies and may be associated with less favorable macroeconomic performance in terms of not only future output and inflation but also future popular spending. Part I also suggests an alternative channel for expansionary or Non-Keynesian fiscal contractions based on the productivity enhancing role of productive public spending. It is shown that if the incumbent government reduces popular (productive) spending rather than productive (popular) spending, then Non-Keynesian (Keynesian) effects are achieved. Furthermore, it is shown that the favorable effects of public investment depends positively on its quality in this framework. Moreover, the net effect of productive spending financed by borrowing on the next period&#039 / s macroeconomic performance depends on the benefits of productive spending relative to the costs of borrowing. Even under a capital borrowing rule higher public investment may yield unfavorable effects and also it may not necessarily prevent the strategic use of public investment, even though it prevents strategic debt accumulation. Part II investigates the effects of macroeconomic instability on capital accumulation and economic growth in the Turkish economy over the 1963-1999 period. Descriptive and econometric (time series) analyses suggest that macroeconomic instability not only deters capital accumulation and economic growth but it may also reverse the complementarity between public and private investment in the long-run.

During the 90s, the Peruvian government implemented a series of economic and tax to promote investment in the country. This article, after almost two decades and with the assumption of the changes that have arisen, will make a brief review of the background to the enactment of Law No. 30230 with regard to new investments not provided for in the Legal Stability Contracts. From ment, will show how the Law N ° 30230 institutionalizes a misinterpretation of the rules governing legal stability contracts. Then, we will discuss the reasons why the current regulation is not an appropriate tool to promote investment.Finally, we introduce the synthesis of this article through the conclusions. / Durante los años 90, el gobierno peruano implementó una serie de medidas económicas y tributarias para promover la inversión en nuestro país. Este artículo, después de más de dos décadas y con las modificaciones propias de estas medidas, hará un breve repaso de los antecedentes a la promulgación de la Ley N°30230 en relación al tratamiento que se da a las nuevas inversiones no previstas en el Contrato de Estabilidad Tributaria. Luego, se mostrará cómo la Ley N° 30230 institucionaliza una errónea interpretación de las normas que regulan los Contratos de Estabilidad Tributaria. Asimismo, se expondrán los motivos por los que la regulación vigente no resulta ser una adecuada herramienta para promover la inversión. Finalmente, se realizará una síntesis del presente artículo a través de las conclusiones.

This paper discusses the basics and the ways that generally develops the «Public procurement system» between the government and private sector operators. If the material activity of the Public Administrations usually develops through its own means, economic, material and personal, it is also essential collaboration of the private sector through public procurement. The positive connection to the law is unavoidable in public contracts, but it is also very relevant public expenditure savings applying procurement rules to advertising, equal competition and competitiveness. It serves as a reference the substantive core of Spanish law which, as most of the states of Europe, faithfully follows the rules to compliance with the European Union, undoubtedly one of the forms of state integration policies with greater depth and success in the world. / En este trabajo se analizan los fundamentos y las formas en que se desenvuelve generalmente el «sistema de la contratación pública», una de las instituciones jurídicas en que se manifiesta más explícitamente la actuación colaborativa entre las Administraciones Públicas y los agentes económicos del sector privado. Si la actividad material de las Administraciones Públicas se desarrolla generalmente a través de sus propios medios, económicos, materiales y personales, también es fundamental la colaboración del sector privado a través de los contratos públicos.La vinculación positiva a la ley resulta ineludible en los contratos públicos, pero es muy relevante el ahorro de gasto público aplicando normas de contratación con publicidad, igualdad de concurrencia y competitividad. Sirve como referencia el núcleo sustancial del Derecho español que, como la mayor parte de los Estados de Europa, sigue fielmente las normas de obligado acatamiento de la Unión Europea, sin duda una de las fórmulas políticas de integración estatal con mayor calado y éxito en el mundo.

In this interview, the interlocutor analyzes, in general terms, which are the issues that the government reform involves, mainly in three important fields: civil service reform, public contracting system reform, and promotion of theprivate investment. Thus, the interlocutor criticizes the way the reforms in some areas have been executed; mentions which are, from his perspective, the successes of some reforms; and outlines proposed solutions for the road ahead for the government modernization. / En la presente entrevista, el interlocutor analiza, de forma general, cuáles son los problemas que supone la reforma del Estado, fundamentalmente en tres áreas importantes: reforma del servicio civil, del sistema de contrataciones del Estado, y promoción de la inversión privada. De esta manera, el interlocutor critica la manera en la que se han llevado a cabo reformas en ciertas áreas; señala cuáles son, según su consideración, los aciertos de algunas reformas; y esboza propuestas de solución para el camino que aún falta por recorrer para la modernización del Estado.

Economic and political reforms have been introduced in Ethiopia and these have boosted private investment over the last two decades. Reforms have brought about measurable improvements, but the progress of the status of private investment has remained slow. This study was conducted with the objective of investigating the microeconomic level determinants of private investment in the manufacturing sector. These micro-level determinants of private investment in the State of Tigray, Ethiopia, were analysed using both descriptive and econometric methods. Thus, an econometric method of data analysis using a duration model was applied to analyse the microeconomic data collected. In addition, descriptive analysis was employed to analyse the survey data. Here, a chi-square test and factor analysis were used to analyse the relationship between variables and their constraints on the operations of the manufacturing sector. The major microeconomic determinants of private investment status in the State of Tigray were found to be investment areas, access to credit, infrastructure facilities, the judicial system, corruption, investment incentives and bureaucratic red tape. The econometric result revealed that infrastructure facilities, the judicial system, and investment areas negatively and significantly delayed the entire private investment status. However, interest rates and investment location were positively and significantly supported to continue their status of the entire private investors in the manufacturing sector. Infrastructure facilities, investment incentives, and investment areas were negatively and significantly related to the started group of investors’ progress. However, investment location was related positively and significantly to the started group and the ability of the implementation and operation statuses of private investors to proceed to operation status. In the case of the non-started group, infrastructure facilities and investment areas are related significantly and negatively to investment status delay. By contrast, interest rates and investment location significantly and positively affect private investment status delay. According to the descriptive analysis, access to credit, bureaucratic red tape and corruption were the additional major factors that hinder private investment from progressing from one xii status to the next. The investor’s level of education, access to land and political instability risks in the survey were not determinants of private investment status. In addition, the survey of private investors for those who have already started production shows that infrastructural, technological, and economic and financial factors have the highest absolute value of the loading factors that hinders operations in the manufacturing sector. The results of this study revealed that most of the problems encountered in the manufacturing sector were institutional but some were related to the private investors themselves. Thus, the government should take measures to establish a true, independent and efficient institution so as to create access to credit and provide infrastructure facilities to the private sector. This could be done by minimising corruption and ensuring transparent investment regulations. Thus, the State of Tigray, Ethiopia, must attract and encourage private investors by applying and improving policies which promote private investment. In this way they will actively contribute to the overall development and growth of the Ethiopian economy. Finally, as this study is made on the causes of delay in each phases of investment, it contributes a new knowledge to all investment sectors in the developing countries as whole and particularly to all regions of Ethiopia for advanced polices and strategies development on investment decisions. Then, based on the results of the study and solving these identified problems of investment phases, all actors of investment can retain and encourage the existing and attract new private investors to enhance the economic development of the society. The findings from this study have important implications for prospective business owners, lenders, and policy makers on how to improve private investment and create conducive business environment. / Business Management / D.B.L.

Diversos autores tratam a necessidade das empresas gerenciarem seu processo de inovação para reforçar sua posição competitiva e de procurarem estratégias competitivas coerentes com as mudanças impostas pelo ambiente. O sucesso da inovação depende, além das fontes técnicas, de competências para gerenciá-las. Seguindo essa lógica, para cumprir com os objetivos dos programas de incentivos à inovação, é preciso, além de proporcionar recursos financeiros e humanos, assegurar que as empresas possuam competências para lidar com a gestão da inovação. Diante do exposto, este trabalho propõe um modelo para a análise da adicionalidade comportamental das empresas beneficiadas pelo programa de Subvenção Econômica da FINEP e o aplica com cinco microempresas de base tecnológica beneficiadas pelo programa. Sendo que o objetivo é de explorar de que maneira a participação no Programa de Subvenção Econômica pode modificar a estratégia e gestão de inovação dessas empresas. O modelo desenvolvido baseia-se no conceito de adicionalidade comportamental e nos modelos de avaliação de instrumentos de incentivos à inovação levantados na literatura. É pautado ainda nas teorias de gestão e estratégia de inovação como forma de captar as possíveis adicionalidades comportamentais no nível do projeto e da empresa. A aplicação do modelo às cinco microempresas de base tecnológica apoiadas pelo programa de subvenção econômica de 2006 mostrou a sua eficácia. Foi possível captar que as empresas apresentaram adicionalidade comportamental em intensidade distinta no nível do projeto e no nível da empresa e também para a dimensão da gestão da inovação e da estratégia da inovação. Essa abordagem não pretende substituir as avaliações já realizadas pela FINEP e sim ser de caráter complementar. Traz uma nova perspectiva para as avaliações de políticas públicas por considerar que a contribuição do instrumento de incentivo à inovação não deve trazer resultados pontuais ou ter caráter redistributivo de recursos, mas sim pode elevar a competência inovativa das empresas por eles beneficiadas, seja no aprimoramento de suas ferramentas ou processo de inovação ou por alterar de forma substancial e positiva a sua estratégia de inovação. / Several authors address the companies need for managing their innovation process in order to strength its competitive position and for seeking competitive strategies coherent with the changes imposed by the environment. Successful innovation depends, in addition to technical sources, of expertise to manage them. Following this logic, to meet the goals of the innovation incentives programs, we must ensure that companies have responsibilities to deal with the management of innovation, besides providing financial and human resources. Given the above, this paper proposes a behavioral additionality evaluation model of companies benefited by FINEP Economic Support Program and applies it to five technology based micro-enterprise. Since the goal is to explore how the participation in the Economic Support Program can modify the strategy and innovation management of these companies, the model is based on the concept of behavioral additionality and the evaluation models of technological innovation incentive raised in the literature. It is based on the theories of management and innovation strategy as a way to capture the possible behavioral additionality at the project and company level. The application of the model with the five technology based micro-enterprise benefited by FINEP Economic Support Program of 2006 showed its effectiveness. It was possible to capture that companies had different intensity of behavioral additionality at the project and the company level and also at the innovation management and innovation strategy dimension. This approach is not intended to replace the evaluation already carried out by FINEP, but to be used as complementary. It brings a new perspective for the public polices evaluation by considering that the contribution of the stimulate innovation instrument should not bring specific results or not have redistributive resources character, but can increase the innovation ability of the companies benefited by them, also in the improvement of your tools or innovation process or by changing substantially and positively its innovation strategy.

Submitted by Marilene Donadel (marilene.donadel@unioeste.br) on 2018-10-25T20:05:30Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Laudelina_Ribeiro_2018.pdf: 1327358 bytes, checksum: 607edeb8bb5b6744a60b848c643c8920 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2018-10-25T20:05:30Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Laudelina_Ribeiro_2018.pdf: 1327358 bytes, checksum: 607edeb8bb5b6744a60b848c643c8920 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2018-08-03 / Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior - CAPES / The study of the Rational Expectations Hypotesis (REH) had its beginning after the 1960’s, setting the economic agents’ rationality as the theoretical base. The economic agents settle their expectations according to the current economic outlook; therefore, the economic environment becomes an important factor in shaping the entrepreneurs’ expectations, since great part of the decisions which entrepreneurs take occur in an economic scenario more uncertain. This dissertation aims to analyse the influence of the brazilian entrepreneurs’ expectations index in the transformation industry sector over the private investment, as well as the employment level in this industry. The period taken to be analysed is 2003-2017, and the data is monthly. The econometric model used to calculate the influence was estimated by the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). The results show that the entrepreneurs’ expectations index in the processing industry sector had a considerable influence over the decisions of private investment and the level of employment in that sector in Brazil. Thus, a stable economic scenario leads to an increase in the level of confidence in the industry sector, which can stimulate the growth in the industrial sector output and in several other sectors throughout the country. / O estudo da Hipótese das Expectativas Racionais (HER) iniciou-se após os anos de 1960, tendo como princípio a racionalidade dos agentes. Os agentes econômicos formulam suas hipóteses e expectativas com base no contexto econômico atual; logo, o ambiente econômico torna-se um fator influente na formação das expectativas empresariais visto que, na maioria das vezes, a tomada de decisão dos empresários ocorre em um ambiente de incerteza. O presente estudo tem a finalidade de analisar a influência do índice de expectativas dos empresários brasileiros da indústria de transformação sobre o investimento privado e o emprego desta indústria. O período compreendido no estudo é de 2003 a 2017, com a base de dados mensal. Para avaliar os resultados, o método econométrico utilizado foi estimado pelo Modelo Vetor de Correção de Erros (VECM). Os resultados apontam que, no período estudado, o índice de expectativas dos empresários da indústria de transformação influenciou as decisões relacionadas com o investimento privado e com o emprego das indústrias de transformação do país. Sendo assim, um cenário econômico estável proporciona um aumento da confiança dos empresários industriais, fazendo crescer sua expectativa em relação a seus negócios futuros e à economia do país e proporcionando um aumento de seus investimentos industriais, que podem impulsionar o crescimento da atividade do setor industrial e das demais atividades econômicas do país.

Este estudio investiga acerca del efecto que la inversión pública genera en la inversión privada durante los años 2002 – 2020 en el Perú. Esta investigación emplea la prueba de límites en un modelo autorregresivo con retardos distribuidos (ARDL), un enfoque desarrollado recientemente y que ha logrado mejorar las técnicas tradicionales de cointegración. Los resultados encontrados en esta investigación evidencian que la inversión pública presenta un efecto crowding out en corto y largo plazo hacer ca de la inversión privada. Aunque se presenta un efecto crowding out de la inversión pública en la inversión privada, la inversión en infraestructura presenta un efecto de complementa a largo plazo. A través de las cifras resultantes se sugiere que la productividad de la inversión pública e inversión privada puede mejorarse mediante una disminución de la inversión pública en no infraestructura al nivel mínimo necesario y un mayor fortalecimiento a la inversión en infraestructura. / This research studies the effect that public investment generates on private investment during the 2002-2020 period. This study used the limits test in an autoregressive model with distributed lags (ARDL), a recently developed approach that has managed to improve the techniques traditional cointegration. The results show that public investment has a negative effect on private investment in the short and long term. Although there is a crowding out effect of public investment on private investment, investment in infrastructure has a crowding in effect in the long term. The results suggest that the productivity of public and private investment in Peru can be improved by reducing public investment in non-infrastructure to the minimum necessary level and by further strengthening public investment in infrastructure. / Trabajo de investigación

El presente trabajo tiene por finalidad identificar las causas que ralentizan las adjudicaciones de los proyectos del Sistema Garantizado de Transmisión del Plan de Transmisión cuya entrega en concesión al sector privado le es encargada a la Agencia de Promoción de la Inversión Privada (PROINVERSIÓN) por parte del Ministerio de Energía y Minas (MINEM). De la revisión de la normativa para el desarrollo de las Asociaciones Público Privadas (APP) que rige el actuar de PROINVERSIÓN, aunada a la investigación realizada respecto de los procesos de promoción de la inversión privada de los proyectos tramitados en el periodo comprendido de 2007 a 2020, se observa que, a medida que la mencionada regulación ha venido siendo modificada, se han incrementado los requerimientos y procedimientos de cada una de las fases de desarrollo de las APP aplicables a los proyectos. Resulta relevante que la normativa de APP tenga en consideración la regulación sectorial en materia de electricidad, a fin de evitar la duplicidad de esfuerzos y su tramitología asociada, lo cual redunda en el mayor tiempo que insumen los procesos de promoción de la inversión privada. Habiendo identificado las causas que generaron dicha situación, se presenta una propuesta modificatoria de la normativa de las APP, la cual coadyuvará a que los procesos de promoción de la inversión privada de los proyectos del Sistema Garantizado de Transmisión del Plan de Transmisión resulten ágiles para su oportuna implementación, cumpliendo con los objetivos de mantener o mejorar la calidad, fiabilidad y seguridad del sistema de transmisión. / The purpose of this work is to identify the causes that slow down the allocations of the projects of the Guaranteed Transmission System of the Transmission Plan, whose delivery in concession to the private sector is entrusted to the Agency for the Promotion of Private Investment – PROINVERSION- by the Ministry of Energy and Mines. According to the review of the regulations for the development of Private-Public Partnerships (PPP), which runs the actions of PROINVERSION, along with the research carried out regarding the processes of promotion of private investment of the projects processed from 2007 to 2020, it is observed that as the aforementioned regulations have been modified, the requirements and procedures of each of the development phases of the PPP applicable to the projects have increased. It is relevant that the PPP regulations take into account the sectorial policies in the matter of electricity, in order to avoid duplication of efforts and its associated paperwork, which result in increasing greatly the time the private investment promotion processes take. Having identified the causes that generated this situation, a proposal to modify the PPP regulations is presented, which will help the processes of promoting private investment in the projects of the Guaranteed Transmission System of the Transmission Plan to be more flexible for their timely implementation, meeting the objectives of maintaining or improving the quality, reliability and safety of the transmission system. / Trabajo de investigación

Por medio del Decreto Supremo Nº 410-2015-EF, el cual aprobó el Reglamento del Decreto Legislativo Nº 1224, Decreto Legislativo que regula la Promoción de la Inversión Privada mediante Asociaciones Público-Privadas (en adelante, las APP’s) y Proyectos en Activos (actualmente derogado) se incorporó a las optimizaciones en el marco normativo nacional referido a la ejecución de contrato de APP. El mencionado mecanismo ha vuelto a ser considerado dentro del Decreto Legislativo N° 1362 y su reglamento aprobado por Decreto Supremo N° 240-2018-EF. Así, las optimizaciones se incorporaron como un mecanismo para realizar cambios a determinadas obligaciones establecidas en los contratos de APP. No obstante, se ha apreciado que dichas optimizaciones presentan una regulación confusa, la cual ha generado confusiones y discordancias respecto de en su correcta ejecución y, por ende, el desarrollo de las obligaciones establecidas en los contratos; ello se aprecia por ejemplo en el caso específico del Contrato de Concesión de la Línea 2 del Metro de Lima. Por lo tanto, por medio del presente trabajo de investigación se planteará una propuesta de regulación de las optimizaciones, la cual tiene por finalidad que estas se vuelvan una herramienta que permita mejorar su aplicación en los contratos de APP. / Through the promulgation of Supreme Decree 410-2015-EF, which approved the Regulation of Legislative Decree No. 1224, Legislative Decree that regulates the Promotion of Private Investment through Public-Private Partnerships and Projects in Assets was incorporated into the optimizations in the national regulatory framework referred to the execution of the PPP contract. The mentioned mechanism has been considered again in Legislative Decree No. 1362 and its regulations approved through Supreme Decree No. 240-2018-EF. Thus, the optimizations were incorporated as a mechanism to make changes to certain obligations established in the PPP contracts. However, it has been appreciated that these present incoherent regulations, which damages their correct execution and, therefore, the development of the established obligations; This has been seen in the specific case of the Concession Contract for Line 2 of the Lima Metro. Therefore, by means of this research work, a proposal for the regulation of optimizations will be proposed, it is intended that they become a tool to improve their application in PPP contracts. / Tesis