Thesis (MPA (School of Public Management and Planning))--University of Stellenbosch, 2009. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: Public sector reform has been around since the 1980s and was a result of criticism against traditional public administration for being too slow and inefficient to address public needs. Although Public sector reform is common in developed countries, evidence of public sector reform has rarely been seen in developing countries. The purpose of this investigation is to determine whether there is any evidence of public sector reform in a developing country such as South Africa. The author divides public sector reform into three categories, namely: new governance, regulatory governance and new public management (NPM). Based on the theoretical information analysed, a list of qualifying criteria for public sector reform is compiled. The author then focuses on the Perishable Products Export Control Board (PPECB), a statutory organisation acting as a service provider for the perishable products export industry and a regulator on behalf of the South African government. The author analyses the model on which South African perishable exports are based and studies the organisation‟s history, strategies, operational structure and its relationship with government. The information gathered is then compared to the list of qualifying criteria compiled for public sector reform. It was found that the model, and specifically service delivery strategies by the PPECB, provides conclusive evidence of new governance, regulatory governance and NPM. It was also found the model is a hybrid between traditional public administration and public sector reform, as it contains characteristics of both. The study takes the form of a literature review. Research was conducted through studying various literatures pertaining to new governance, regulatory governance and new public management. In addition, the author gathered relevant information from within the PPECB, the South African Department of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (DAFF) and the export industry. Further information was also collected by means of unstructured interviews with senior individuals employed by the PPECB. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Openbare hervorming bestaan sedert die jare tagtig en het basies ontstaan as gevolg van kritiek omdat tradisionele openbare administrasie te traag en onbevoeg was om openbare behoeftes aan te spreek. Hoewel openbare hervorming in ontwikkelde lande stewig gevestig is, is daar ook bewys daarvan in ontwikkelende lande. Die doel van hierdie ondersoek was om vas te stel of daar enige bewys van openbare hervorming in ‟n ontwikkelende land soos Suid-Afrika bestaan. Die outeur het openbare hervorming in drie kategorieë verdeel, te wete nuwe regeringsbestuur, regulatoriese regeringsbestuur en nuwe openbare bestuur. Op grond van ‟n analise van die teoretiese inligting, is ‟n lys van kwalifiserende kriteria – gerig op openbare hervorming – saamgestel. Die outeur het vervolgens op die Bederfbare Produkte Uitvoerbeheerraad (PPECB) gefokus – dit is ‟n statutêre liggaam wat as diensverskaffer vir die bederfbare produkte uitvoernywerheid en as ‟n reguleerder namens die Suid-Afrikaanse regering optree. Die outeur het ‟n analise gedoen van die model waarop Suid-Afrikaanse bederfbare uitvoere gebaseer is en voorts die organisasie se geskiedenis, strategie, operasionele struktuur en sy verhouding met die regering bestudeer. Die inligting wat ingewin is, is vervolgens met die lys van kwalifiserende kriteria – gerig op openbare hervorming – vergelyk. Daar is bevind dat die model – en spesifiek diensleweringstrategie by die PPECB – voldoende bewys lewer van nuwe regeringsbestuur, regulatoriese regeringsbestuur en nuwe openbare bestuur. Daar is ook bevind dat die model ‟n hibridisering is tussen tradisionele openbare administrasie en openbare hervorming aangesien dit karaktereienskappe van albei bevat. Die studie is in die vorm van ‟n literêre oorsig gedoen. Navorsing is uitgevoer deur die bestudering van verskeie geskrifte oor nuwe regeringsbestuur, regulatoriese regeringsbestuur en nuwe openbare bestuur. Daarbenewens het die outeur relevante inligting binne die PPECB, die Suid-Afrikaanse Departement van Landbou, Bosbou en Visserye en die uitvoernywerheid, ingesamel. Nog inligting is ook bekom deur ongestruktureerde onderhoude met senior werknemers van die PPECB te voer.

Ce travail porte sur la modélisation et la résolution de problèmes d’optimisation robuste et multi-objectifs du transport multimodal. Après une synthèse des travaux de la littérature et des concepts de base de l’optimisation robuste et l’optimisation multi-objectif, nous proposons un nouveau modèle d’optimisation multi-objectif du transport multimodal des produits agricoles marocains vers des clients européens. L’objectif est de déterminer la meilleure stratégie d’exportation qui minimise simultanément le coût total de transport multimodal et l’overtime maximal en prenant en considération des contraintes réalistes. Nous proposons également des nouvelles approches de résolution avec une application sur un réseau de transport multimodal réel.Nous avons étudié une autre problématique du transport multimodal avec localisation de terminaux intermodaux. Outre la version déterministe, une optimisation robuste qui tient compte des incertitudes sur les capacités, les coûts d’utilisation et les coûts de transport. Deux approches hybrides ont été proposées pour la résolution du problème.Dans ces contributions, des modèles et des méthodes sont présentés, des remarques et des interprétations sont tirées à propos de l’impact de la périssabilité des produits et de la robustesse sur les flux, le choix des ports, des trajets et des modes de transport. / Because of the importance of multimodal transport for goods importation and exportation from Morocco to international customers, our goals are modeling and solving multimodal freight transportation problems by more focusing on some issues confronted by our country. After presenting the required mathematical background on robust and multiobjective optimization and surveying the literature works on multimodal transport problems, its variants and solution approaches; and instead of testing them only on traditional benchmarks; we dealt with new variants and methods. A multi-objective mathematical model is proposed to optimize the multimodal transport of agricultural products from Morocco to Europe. To solve this model adapted to a real network, two multiobjective version algorithms are presented in order to optimize simultaneously the total transportation cost and the over-time.Given the complexity of the global logistics chain by various operations and several stakeholders, the data of the problem may sometimes be ignored or uncompleted. That’s why we have developed a mathematical model for multimodal terminal location problem by integrating uncertainties of the transportation costs, the capacities and the using costs of terminals. A population based simulated annealing and a hybrid method combining an exact and a metaheuristic approaches are proposed to effectively solving the problem. The test is then performed on a real intermodal network. These contributions are concluded by remarks and highlights about the impact of perishability and robustness on flows, location strategies of ports, the choice of paths and transportation modes.

Made available in DSpace on 2016-03-15T19:43:48Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Antonio Xavier de Queiroz.pdf: 3828598 bytes, checksum: b4a4f127dd9bee731ba2cf317c561311 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2010-03-18 / Fundo Mackenzie de Pesquisa / This research is an invitation to the act of looking, or, in other words, to an intimate "action" towards such a different organic element called Blood, which can be either represented, or materialistically presented as a significant vehicle in the artwork at different times of Art History. Such evolution of Blood as a sthetic material will be done by analyzing the works of different artists such as: Pietro Lorenzetti, Mathias Grünewald, Annibale Carracci, Caravaggio, Artemisia Gentileschi, Francisco Goya, Pedro Américo, Gustave Moreau Frida Kahlo and Candido Portinari. Hermann Nitsch, Ana Mendieta, Gina Pane, Chris Burden, Artur Barrio, Karin Lambrecht, Marc Quinn, Betina Sor, Vanessa Tiegs e Regina José Galindo are contemporary artists, most of them representative either of the so called Body Art or of other innovative styles born after the Second World War or of Vietnam War or after 1968 movements. Anyway, all of them have blood as a fundamental and meaningful element, and this is what will be focused in this work. / Esta pesquisa é um convite à ação , ao exercício do olhar, a um olhar atento, diferenciado sobre o elemento orgânico sangue , que ora é representado, ora é apresentado e materializado como veículo expressivo na obra de arte, em diferentes momentos da história da Arte. Serão analisadas obras de diferentes artistas, tais como Pietro Lorenzetti, Mathias Grünewald, Annibale Carracci, Michelangelo Merisi, Caravaggio, Artemisia Gentileschi, Francisco Goya, Pedro Américo, Gustave Moreau, Frida Kahlo, Hermann Nitsch, Ana Mendieta, Gina Pane, Chris Burden, Artur Barrio, Karin Lambrecht, Marc Quinn, Betina Sor, Vanessa Tiegs e Regina José Galindo, em trabalhos em que o sangue se faz presente.

Pour accompagner le développement des fermes urbaines professionnelles et des circuits courts et de proximité dans les grandes métropoles, nous proposons des outils à base de programmes mathématiques d'aide à la conception de fermes maraîchères diversifiées ciblant les demandes de différents types de clients en fruits et légumes frais locaux. Les solutions techniques de culture en ville se développent rapidement, mais compte-tenu des contraintes fortes de la production agricole urbaine (foncier limité, coûts opérationnels élevés), la définition de modèles économiques viables pour des fermes pérennes est un vrai défi pour les maraîchers urbains. Trois modèles en programmation linéaire mixte sont présentés et confrontés aux résultats du terrain : un modèle de dimensionnement stratégique annuel, un modèle de sélection de la meilleure combinaison de clients et un modèle de dimensionnement stratégique pluri-annuel des fermes maraîchères. Des résultats numériques et les performances des modèles sont présentés à partir de cas concrets multi-produits, multi-techniques et multi-périodes. Nos contributions résident dans la prise en compte de la périssabilité des produits frais dans le dimensionnement stratégique des systèmes de production, incluant le dimensionnement de la main d’œuvre agricole. / To support the urban farm emergence trend in large metropolises, we propose decision support tools based on mathematical programs to design market gardening farms targetting the demands of different categories of clients in local fresh fruits and vegetables. Technical solutions develop rapdily, but the strong constraints linked to urban farming, such as limited surface and high operating costs, make difficult to define viable and sustainable business models for urban market gardeners. Three mixed integer linear programming models are presented: An annual strategic sizing model, a client combination selection model and a plurennial strategic sizing model for diversified fruit and vegetable farms. Numerical results and model performances are presented, based on multi-products, multi-techniques and multi-periods real cases. Our main contributions are the consideration of the perishable nature of fruits and vegetables in strategic production systems sizing models, including notably the investments and workforce sizing.

This thesis presents a study of stochastic models of continuous review of inventory systems of perishable and non-perishable products, as well as inventory systems operating in random environment. It contains five chapters. The first chapter is introductory in nature, containing the motivation for the study and the techniques required for the analysis of respective models described in the remaining chapters. Chapter 2 provides a model of perishable product inventory system operating in a random environment. For the sake of simplicity, the stochastic environment is considered to alternate randomly over time between two states 0 and 1 according to an alternating renewal process. When the environment is in state k, the items in inventory have a perishable rate ìk, the demand rate is ëk and the replenishment cost is CRk. The performance of various measures of the system evolution are obtained, assuming instantaneous replenishment at the epoch of the first demand after the stock-out and associating a Markov renewal process with the inventory level. In Chapter 3, a continuous review single product perishable inventory model is considered. Items deteriorate in two phases and then perish. Independent demands occur at constant rates for items in phase I and in phase II. Demand that occurs for an item in phase I during its stock-out period is satisfied by an item in phase II with some probability. However a demand for an item in phase II occurring during its stock-out period is lost. The reordering policy is an adjustable (S,s) policy with the lead-time following an arbitrary distribution. Identifying the stochastic process as a renewal process, the probability distribution of the inventory level at any arbitrary instant of time is obtained. The expressions for the mean stationary rates of demands lost, demands substituted, perished units and scrapped units are also derived. A numerical example is considered to highlight the results obtained. Chapter 4 is a study of a two-commodity inventory system under continuous review. The maximum storage capacity for the i-th item is Si (i=1, 2). The demand points for each commodity are assumed to form an independent Poisson process, with unit demand for one item and bulk demand for the other. The order level is fixed as si for the i-th commodity (i=1, 2) and the ordering policy is to place an order for Qi (= Si – si , i = 1,2) items for the i-the commodity when both the inventory levels are less than or equal to their respective reorder levels. The lead-time is assumed to be exponential. The joint probability distribution for both commodities is obtained in both transient and steady state cases. Various measures of systems performance and the total expected cost rate in the steady state are derived. The results are illustrated with numerical examples. Chapter 5 provides an analysis of a continuous review of two-product system with two types of demands and with individual (S,s) ordering policy. The lead-time distribution of product 1 is arbitrary and that of product 2 exponential. Two types of demands occur at constant rates either for both products or for product 2 alone. Expressions for the stationary distribution of the inventory level are obtained by identifying the underlying stochastic processes as a semi-regenerative process. The mean stationary rates of the lost demands, the demands that are satisfied and the number of reorders are obtained and these measures are used to provide an expression for the cost rate. The main objective of this thesis is to improve the state of art of continuous review inventory systems. The salient features of the thesis are summarized below: <ul>(a) Consideration of</ul> <ul>(i) The impact of the stochastic environment on inventory systems;</ul> <ul>(ii) The interactions existing among the products in multi-product systems;</ul> <ul>(iii) Individual and joint-ordering policies;</ul> <ul>(b) Discussion of inventory systems with perishable products; </ul> <ul>(c) Effective use of the regeneration point technique to derive expressions for various system measures;</ul> <ul>(d) Illustration of the various results by extensive numerical work;</ul> <ul>(e) Relevant optimization problems</ul> / Thesis (PhD (Industrial Engineering))--University of Pretoria, 2006. / Industrial and Systems Engineering / unrestricted

[ES] Los productos perecederos representan un gran parte de los bienes que se comercializan en el mundo. Éstos productos empiezan a tener un papel más relevante dadas las condiciones de seguridad alimentaria que requiere la humanidad, en el año 2023 la población del planeta superó los 8 mil millones de habitantes, una cifra que presiona aún más el riesgo alimenticio del planeta. La gestión de éste tipo de cadenas de suministros es responsable en parte de la seguridad alimentaria de las personas, actualmente uno (1) de cada tres (3) kilos de comida que se producen en el mundo se pierde o desperdicia. Ésta situación merece un análisis más profundo, y por tanto se requiere dividir el problema en varias partes para saber la conexión del problema. Encontramos que el efecto látigo, un fenómeno que amplifica la demanda aguas arriba de la cadena de suministros, es responsable en cierto modo de ésta pérdida y desperdicio de alimento. Nuestra investigación encontró que existen varias causas que generan el efecto látigo, como la gestión de la demanda, el tiempo de entrega o de reabastecimiento, nivel de deterioro del producto, entre otros. Éstas causas del efecto látigo fueron simuladas en una cadena de 10 retailers, una central de abastos, tres intermediarios rurales y 6 agricultores; con el fin de evidenciar el impacto en el inventario, el desperdicio y el nivel de servicio de una cadena de suministros del banano. Para la simulación diseñamos un modelos de previsión de demanda Prophet, el cual tuvo en cuenta la tendencia y estacionalidad de la demanda del banano, y el tiempo de entrega y de reabastecimiento de los proveedores. Nuestro modelo logró disminuir el efecto látigo en casi una cuarta parte con respecto a un modelo de previsión básico (Naïve), también redujo el inventario en toda la cadena de suministros del banano en casi tres veces con relación al modelo Naïve. Éstos resultados fueron consistentes en todos los escenarios donde se tuvo en cuenta el nivel de desperdicio del banano, cambios en los tiempos de entrega y de reabastecimiento. Nuestro mayor aporte a la investigación fue diseñar un modelo de previsión basado en Prophet, que no se había usado para disminuir el efecto látigo en una cadena de perecederos, evidenciando que el nivel de deterioro del producto afecta en mayor medida el inventario en la cadena de suministros, en comparación con el tiempo de entrega y de reabastecimiento. Los aportes y hallazgos encontrados en la investigación, deben ser ampliados hacia nuevas líneas, que involucren el comportamiento humano como causa del efecto látigo, otro tipo de alimentos que tengan mayor nivel de vida útil, y estructuras de cadenas que tengan variaciones en sus pedidos, tiempos de producción y capacidades organizacionales / [CA] Els productes peribles representen una gran part dels productes venuts al món. Aquests productes comencen a tenir un paper més rellevant donades les condicions de seguretat alimentària que requereix la humanitat. El 2023, la població del planeta va superar els 8.000 milions d'habitants, una xifra que pressiona encara més el risc alimentari del planeta. La gestió d'aquest tipus de cadenes de subministrament és en part responsable de la seguretat alimentària de les persones; actualment es perd o es malgasta un (1) de cada tres (3) quilos d'aliments produïts al món. Aquesta situació mereix una anàlisi més profunda, i per tant cal dividir el problema en diverses parts per conèixer la connexió del problema. Hem trobat que l'efecte fuet, un fenomen que amplifica la demanda aigües amunt de la cadena de subministrament, és una mica responsable d'aquesta pèrdua i malbaratament d'aliments. La nostra investigació va trobar que hi ha diverses causes que generen l'efecte fuet, com ara la gestió de la demanda, el temps de lliurament o reposició, el nivell de deteriorament del producte, entre d'altres. Aquestes causes de l'efecte fuet es van simular en una cadena de 10 minoristes, un centre de subministrament, tres intermediaris rurals i 6 agricultors; per tal de demostrar l'impacte en l'inventari, els residus i el nivell de servei d'una cadena de subministrament de plàtan. Per a la simulació vam dissenyar un model de previsió de la demanda del Profeta, que tenia en compte la tendència i l'estacionalitat de la demanda de plàtan, i el temps de lliurament i reposició dels proveïdors. El nostre model va aconseguir reduir l'efecte fuet en gairebé una quarta part en comparació amb un model bàsic de previsió (Naïve), també va reduir l'inventari a tota la cadena de subministrament de plàtan gairebé tres vegades en comparació amb el model Naïve. Aquests resultats van ser coherents en tots els escenaris on es va tenir en compte el nivell de residus de plàtan, els canvis en els temps de lliurament i reposició. La nostra major contribució a la investigació va ser dissenyar un model de previsió basat en Prophet, que no s'havia utilitzat per reduir l'efecte fuet en una cadena perible, demostrant que el nivell de deteriorament del producte afecta en major mesura l'inventari de la cadena de subministrament. subministraments, en comparació amb el temps de lliurament i reposició. Les contribucions i troballes que es troben a la investigació s'han d'ampliar cap a noves línies, que impliquen el comportament humà com a causa de l'efecte fuet, altres tipus d'aliments que tenen un nivell més alt de vida útil i estructures de cadena que tenen variacions en els seus ordres, temps de producció i capacitats organitzatives / [EN] Perishable products represent a large part of the goods traded in the world. Given the food security conditions required by humanity, these products are beginning to play a more relevant role; in 2023, the world's population exceeded 8 billion inhabitants, putting even more pressure on the planet's food risk. This type of supply chain management is partly responsible for people's food security. One (1) of every three (3) kilos of food produced worldwide needs to be recovered or used. This situation deserves a more profound analysis; therefore, it is necessary to divide the problem into several parts to know the connection of the problem. We found that the bullwhip effect, a phenomenon that amplifies the demand upstream of the supply chain, is responsible in some way for this loss and waste of food. Our research found that several causes generate the bullwhip effect, such as demand management, delivery or replenishment time, and level of product deterioration. These causes of the bullwhip effect were simulated in a chain of 10 retailers, a supply center, three rural intermediaries, and six farmers to demonstrate the impact on a banana supply chain's inventory, waste, and service level. For the simulation, we designed a Prophet demand forecasting model, which considered the trend and seasonality of banana demand and suppliers' delivery and replenishment time. Our model managed to reduce the bullwhip effect by almost a quarter compared to a basic forecasting model (Naïve), and it also reduced inventory in the entire banana supply chain by almost three times compared to the Naïve model. These results were consistent in all scenarios where the level of banana waste, changes in delivery, and replenishment times were considered. Our most significant contribution to the research was to design a forecasting model based on Prophet, which had not been used to reduce the bullwhip effect in a perishable goods chain, showing that the level of product deterioration affects inventory in the supply chain to a greater extent, compared to delivery and replenishment time. The contributions and findings found in the research should be extended to new lines involving human behavior as a cause of the bullwhip effect, other types of foods with a longer shelf life, and chain structures with variations in their orders, production times, and organizational capacities. / Durán Peña, JA. (2024). Diseño de un modelo de previsión de demanda para reducir el efecto látigo en una cadena de suministros de perecederos [Tesis doctoral]. Universitat Politècnica de València. https://doi.org/10.4995/Thesis/10251/210911