Cette thèse étudie le choix de portefeuille et l'évaluation d'actifs avec des préférences qui vont au-Delà des préférences d'espérance d'utilité et de moyenne-Variance standard. La première partie de cette thèse porte sur un modèle de décision dans lequel le décideur forme des croyances endogènes compte tenu de son utilité d'anticipation et de sa déception à posteriori. Les implications du modèle en termes de choix de portefeuille et d'évaluation d'actifs sont dérivées et comparées aux implications du modèle d'espérance d'utilité standard. La deuxième partie de cette thèse porte sur des investisseurs qui dérivent l'utilité des trois premiers moments du rendement de leur portefeuille. Nous dérivons et testons les conditions sous lesquelles des actifs supplémentaires peuvent améliorer l'univers d'investissement des investisseurs avec des préférences moyenne-variance-skewness. Les implications de ces préférences pour les rendements d'actifs à l'équilibre sont ensuite analysées et testées avec des rendements boursiers. / This thesis studies portfolio choice and asset pricing with preferences which go beyond the standard expected utility and mean-Variance preferences. The first part of this thesis analyses a decision model in which the decision maker forms endogenous beliefs given his anticipation utility and his ex-Post disappointment. Portfolio choice and asset pricing implications of the model are derived and compared to the implications of the standard expected utility framework. The second part of this thesis analyses investors choice when preferences are derived from the first three moments of portfolio returns. We derive and test the conditions under which additional assets can improve the investment opportunity set of investors with mean-Variance-Skewness preferences. The implications of these preferences for the equilibrium cross-Section of asset returns are then analyzed and tested with stock returns.

Abstract This doctoral thesis aims to contribute to investment behavior research by giving new information on the causes which generate differences in investment behavior. As causes to differences in behavior we focus on the influence of investors’ self-perceived attitudes, evaluations and judgments. We refer to these investor characteristics as subjective attributes. We also test the power of demographic and socio-economic characteristics as causes of differences in investment behavior and refer to these as objective attributes. We approach investment behavior from three dimensions and construct empirical research around each dimension. We find the predictive power of subjective attributes to be strong, which makes it important to take them into account when modeling investment behavior. Our data is collected from two different databases in which subjective and objective attributes are connected with actual investment behavior, i.e. investors’ actual wealth levels and allocations. This is rare because only seldom can researchers link subjective attributes with actual behavior. Our main contributions are the following: 1) Investor-specific risk-standing ability and other subjective attributes have a tight link with investor’s actual risk-standing ability and portfolio choice. This confirms the meaning and importance of European Union regulations which require financial institutions to clarify these issues and in that way betters investor protection. 2) Subjective investor attributes as measures of financial sophistication can be visible as a propensity to withdraw from the stock market during severe market crises. We state that, in addition to its very positive effects, financial sophistication may induce the investor to make mistakes like total withdrawal from the stock market, realization of short- term losses, or exposure to timing problems of stock portfolio rebuilding. 3) Simple questions asked as claims work better as measures of overconfidence than more commonly used calibration-based techniques. Several measures of overconfidence explain trading activity. Trust in one’s own market timing abilities shows as narrower diversification. Our thesis has implications for regulation, financial institutions, financial literacy education and investors themselves. / Tiivistelmä Tämän tutkimuksen tavoitteena on antaa uutta tietoa syistä, jotka aiheuttavat eroja yksityishenkilöiden sijoituskäyttäytymisessä. Käyttäytymiserojen syissä keskitymme sijoittajien itse mieltämiin mielipiteisiin, arviointeihin ja käsityksiin. Nimeämme nämä tekijät sijoittajan subjektiivisiksi ominaisuuksiksi. Lisäksi testaamme demografisten ja sosioekonomisten ominaisuuksien vaikutusta sijoituskäyttäytymisen eroihin. Nimeämme nämä tekijät sijoittajan objektiivisiksi ominaisuuksiksi. Tarkastelemme sijoituskäyttäytymistä kolmesta lähestymiskulmasta rakentamalla empiirisen tutkimuksen jokaisen kulman ympärille. Tulostemme mukaan subjektiivisten ominaisuuksien vaikutus sijoituskäyttäytymiseen on merkittävä, joten ne on syytä ottaa huomioon käyttäytymisen mallintamisessa. Tutkimusaineistomme muodostuu kahdesta erillisestä aineistosta, joissa kummassakin subjektiiviset ja objektiiviset ominaisuudet yhdistyvät todelliseen sijoituskäyttäytymiseen, eli sijoittajien olemassa oleviin varallisuusmääriin ja -jakaumiin. Tämä on poikkeuksellista, sillä subjektiivisia ominaisuuksia harvoin pystytään yhdistämään todelliseen sijoituskäyttäytymiseen. Tutkimuksemme tärkeimmät kontribuutiot ovat seuraavat. 1) Sijoittajakohtaisella riskinsietokyvyllä ja muilla subjektiivisilla ominaisuuksilla on vahva yhteys sijoittajan todelliseen riskinsietokykyyn ja osakeriskin osuuteen. Tämä vahvistaa Euroopan Unionin määräysten merkityksellisyyttä: näiden asioiden selvittäminen on hyödyllistä sijoittajasuojan parantamiseksi. 2) Subjektiiviset ominaisuudet sijoittajien taloudellista oppineisuutta kuvaavina tekijöinä voivat näkyä taipumuksena vetäytyä osakemarkkinoilta voimakkaan kurssilaskun tilanteessa. Taloudellisen oppineisuuden yleisesti havaittujen positiivisten vaikutusten lisäksi oppineisuus voi myös johtaa sijoitusvirheisiin, kuten vetäytymiseen osakemarkkinoilta, lyhyen aikavälin tappioiden realisoimiseen ja salkun uudelleen rakentamisen mukanaan tuomaan ajoitusriskiin. 3) Yksinkertaiset väitemuodossa esitetyt kysymykset toimivat yliluottamuksen mittareina paremmin kuin enemmän käytetyt kalibrointipohjaiset mittarit. Useat yliluottamuksen mittarit selittävät kaupankäynnin aktiivisuutta. Luottamus omiin kykyihin ennustaa markkinaliikkeitä näkyy kapeampana salkun hajautuksena. Tutkimuksellamme on merkitystä lainsäätäjille, finanssialan yrityksille, tahoille, jotka vastaavat sijoittajatietämyksen kouluttamisesta, sekä sijoittajille itselleen.

Background: In today's society, there is more pressure to be sustainable and not least in the financial world. Several agreements, such as the Paris Agreement, have been created to steer countries towards more sustainability. When it comes to the economy, several SRI strategies have been developed to serve the same purpose. However, the problem that emerges is that investors who invest sustainably and use these strategies can lose returns and thus depart from their main goal of maximizing profits.   Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to examine how SRI strategies are used by investors when constructing their portfolios in terms of profit maximization. The paper will thus conclude if the underlying motivation behind the choice of strategy is affected by maximizing profit.   Method and implementation: By conducting a qualitative study and interviewing several fund managers at the largest banks and fund companies in Sweden, the authors aim to answer the research question. The answers provided by the respondents are presented and analyzed in the empirical section and linked to the study's theory.   Conclusion: In this study, there is clearly shown that by investing, according to SRI, a professional investor is still able to profit maximize. The authors, therefore, see that the new way of being rational as an investor is to include SRI strategies. The relationship with being both sustainable and profit-maximizing can be seen as a significant motivating factor. The same can be said about reduced ESG risk and creating legitimacy towards customers. Furthermore, a combination of strategies can be seen as a way to create an optimal portfolio by the investors. This further proves that sustainable investing is the most rational way of investing and a way to achieve an investors main goal to profit maximize.

[pt] Estudos empíricos de como ações respondem às expectativas são de crescente importância, pois fornecem informações essenciais sobre as escolhas dos agentes e contribuem para modelos teóricos. Nós construímos uma base de dados inédita combinando dados de previsões de investidores institucionais do valor mensal de variáveis macroeconômicas com suas escolhas de portfolio. Essa base nos permite investigar como esses dois aspectos estão correlacionados. Encontramos que um aumento de expectativa de inflação e da expectativa de câmbio estão correlacionados com uma redução na exposição a pré fixados. Também observamos uma correlação negativa entre as expectativas da taxa de juros e a exposição à inflação se controlamos para as expectativas das demais variáveis. / [en] Empirical studies of how actions respond to expectations are of increasing relevance, as they provide vital information on agents choices and contribute to theoretical models. We explore how this pass-through occurs in institutional investors in Brazil. We assemble a novel dataset by matching data on institutions forecasts of inflation, the exchange rate and the interest rate with their hedge funds portfolio holdings. This dataset allows us to investigate how institutional investors expectations are related to their portfolio choices. We document that increases in funds inflation and exchange rate expectations are correlated with decreases in their exposures to fixed rate bonds. We also observe a negative correlation between their expectation of the interest rate and their exposure to inflation bonds once we control for the other variables.

Le lien entre le choix d’allocation des fonds mutuels et l’information privée que possède leurs gérants sur des facteurs globaux de risque n’a pas été largement analysé. La littérature manque également d'études concernant l'impact de l’information privée globale sur la performance des fonds mutuels investis en actions. Notre travail vise à apporter de nouveaux éclairages sur ce sujet en montrant que l’information privée sur des facteurs globaux de risque est cruciale pour le choix d’investissements et pour la performance des fonds mutuels lorsqu’ils investissent à l’étranger.Dans le premier papier, nous étudions comment l’information privée sur les facteurs globaux, détenue par les gérants des fonds, impacte leurs performances. Après avoir utilisé plusieurs modèles de performances et plusieurs caractéristiques managériales, nous constatons un impact positif et significatif de l'information globale privée sur la performance des fonds mutuels globaux américains. Nous montrons que l’information globale qui permet de générer de la performance est celle qui concerne les secteurs industriels. Ceci est cohérent avec les résultats d'Albuquerque et al. (2009) et de Hiraki et al. (2015). Nous montrons également que l'utilisation du degré de concentration sectorielle (DSC) est un indicateur bruité de l’avantage informationnel possédé par les gérants. Le degré de concentration sectorielle affecte positivement la performance des fonds durant les périodes de stabilité financière. Cependant, cet impact positif n'est significatif que pour les fonds ayant un fort avantage informationnel sur les facteurs globaux.Dans le deuxième article de cette thèse, nous cherchons à éclaircir les choix d'allocation des fonds globaux et l’évaluation de leurs performances au cours de la récente crise des subprimes. Spécifiquement, nous examinons si c’est l’avantage informationnel de leurs gérants sur des facteurs globaux de risque ou leur familiarité avec certains marchés financiers étrangers qui a guidé leur choix d’investissement et leur a permis d’accroître leur performance durant cette crise. Nous contrôlons nos résultats pour le rôle du degré de transparence des marchés financiers ainsi que le degré de protection des investisseurs. Nous constatons que l’avantage informationnel sur les facteurs globaux (industriels) de risque contribue positivement à la création de la performance des fonds sur toute la période d’étude. La «fuite vers la familiarité» au cours de la période de la récente crise financière est nuisible pour la performance des fonds et peut être considérée comme étant un biais. Les gestionnaires de fonds qui recherchent à investir dans des titres familiers pendant la période de crise financière ne créent pas de valeur pour leurs clients.Dans notre troisième papier, nous examinons les déterminants de la stratégie de rotation des portefeuilles dans différentes industries et l’impact de cette stratégie sur la performance des fonds globaux américains. Nous constatons que les fonds mutuels qui s'engagent dans des stratégies de rotation sectorielle améliorent leur performance. Ce résultat est conforme aux résultats de la littérature qui suggèrent que les fonds gérés activement sont plus performants. De plus, nous constatons que la stratégie de rotation industrielle des fonds est influencée positivement et significativement par l’avantage informationnel des gérants sur les facteurs globaux de risque. Cette étude est en accord avec plusieurs articles de la littérature qui soulignent l'importance croissante de l’information sectorielle pour la gestion d’actifs (Hiraki et al., 2015; Schumacher, 2017). Ce papier confirme également différents arguments selon lesquels la rotation sectorielle pourrait être considérée comme une stratégie optimale pour le choix de portefeuille dans le contexte d’internationalisation des marchés financiers (Weiss, 1998, Cavaglia et al., 2004). / This dissertation responds to a lack within the literature about the impact of private global information on mutual funds portfolio holdings and performance. We conduct three essays that aim to explain different controversial topics about the global funds’ performance and investments choices.In the first paper we examine how the private information on global factors is affecting US global funds’ trading profits. After controlling for different performance benchmark models and for several managerial fund characteristics, we find a positive and significant impact of the private global information on mutual funds’ performance. The fund’s informational advantage on global factors is industry-specific rather than country-specific, consistent with the results of Albuquerque et al. (2009) and Hiraki et al. (2015). We also argue that the use of the degree of sector concentration (DSC) as a proxy for the manager’s informational advantage (as employed in some recent papers) is noisy. The performance of funds is mainly driven by the proxy of private information on industrial factors and not by its degree of sector concentration. DSC affects positively the trading profits of funds in periods of good financial stability. However, this positive impact is only significant for funds with a high informational advantage on global factors.In the second paper, we investigate whether this is the private global information or the familiarity with foreign markets which has driven the performance of global funds during the recent subprime crisis. In fact, it has been shown within the literature that fund managers tend to hold familiar stocks during periods of heightened markets. We find that the private information on global factors of risk is the main driver of funds’ performance for the 2005-2016 period including the subprime crisis period. This result holds when considering different familiarity, market transparency and investor’s protection proxies and when employing different performance benchmark models. On the opposite, the familiarity proxies reverse their effect during the financial crisis period. We show that the “flight to familiarity” within this period is detrimental for funds’ performance and rather can be assessed as a bias. Managers that seek familiarity during periods of financial crisis to be “on the safe side” do not create value for their investors. Our results also suggest that during periods of heightened market uncertainties, fund managers can benefit from processing information on industrial factors, consistent with the findings of Albuquerque et al. (2009) and Hiraki et al. (2015).In our third and last paper, we investigate the determinants of fund’s portfolio rebalancing decisions of foreign holdings that belong to different industries and their relative implication on US global funds’ performance. We find that mutual funds that engage in industrial sector rotation strategies enhance their performance. This result is consistent with the literature view that actively managed funds perform better. Moreover, we find that the fund’s industrial rebalancing activity is positively and significantly affected by its informational advantage on global factors. This study is in line with several papers that highlighted the increasing importance of global industry factors for asset allocation (Hiraki et al., 2015; Schumacher, 2017) and consistent with different arguments stating that industry sector rotation can be optimal for future global investing especially with the increasing integration of capital markets (Weiss, 1998; Cavaglia et al., 2004).

In the first essay, I decompose inflation risk into (i) a part that is correlated with real returns on the market portfolio and factors that determine investor’s preferences and investment opportunities and (ii) a residual part. I show that only the first part earns a risk premium. All nominal Treasury bonds, including the nominal money-market account, are equally exposed to the residual part except inflation-protected Treasury bonds, which provide a means to hedge it. Every investor should put 100% of his wealth in the market portfolio and inflation-protected Treasury bonds and hold a zero-investment portfolio of nominal Treasury bonds and the nominal money market account. In the second essay, I solve the dynamic asset allocation problem of finite lived, constant relative risk averse investors who face inflation risk and can invest in cash, nominal bonds, equity, and inflation-protected bonds when the investment opportunityset is determined by the expected inflation rate. I estimate the model with nominal bond, inflation, and stock market data and show that if expected inflation increases, then investors should substitute inflation-protected bonds for stocks and they should borrow cash to buy long-term nominal bonds. In the lastessay, I discuss how heterogeneity in preferences among investors withexternal non-addictive habit forming preferences affects the equilibrium nominal term structure of interest rates in a pure continuous time exchange economy and complete securities markets. Aggregate real consumption growth and inflation are exogenously specified and contain stochastic components thataffect their means andvolatilities. There are two classes of investors who have external habit forming preferences and different localcurvatures oftheir utility functions. The effects of time varying risk aversion and different inflation regimes on the nominal short rate and the nominal market price of risk are explored, and simple formulas for nominal bonds, real bonds, and inflation risk premia that can be numerically evaluated using Monte Carlo simulation techniques are provided.

我國在民國102年復徵證券交易所得稅，其本質屬於資本利得稅，本文欲探究資本利得稅對資產選擇之影響，再進一步將閉鎖效果納入資產選擇模型，討論課稅實現原則下，資本利得稅的稅率對資產選擇的影響。 本文假設兩項資產，分別為無風險性資產與風險性資產，發現在資本利得稅、資本損失可完全扣抵的情況下，政府擔任分散風險的角色，財富的風險性下跌，代表性個人增加風險性資產持有份額。納入閉鎖效果討論課徵資本利得稅下的資產選擇，設立兩期模型，代表性個人分配財富於無風險資產與風險性資產。若要代表性個人在第二期轉換投資組合，則代表性個人將要求新投資組合之報酬高於原資產之報酬加上處分原資產所產生之資本利得稅，而代表性個人可透過改變風險性資產持有比例調整新資產組合之報酬。研究發現，新投資組合的風險性資產持有比例受到原資產之資本利得稅率影響，原資產的稅率越高，則新投資組合的風險性資產持有比例越大，主因稅率越高，閉鎖效果的強度越強，因此若代表性個人要轉換資產的話，可透過增加風險性資產持有比例來增加新投資組合的預期報酬，亦表示代表性個人之風險承擔意願增加。

This thesis, “Empirical Asset Pricing and Investment Strategies”, examines a number of topics related to portfolio choice, asset pricing, and strategic and tactical asset allocation. The first two papers treat the predictability of asset returns. Since at least the mid-1980s until quite recently, the conventional wisdom has been that it is possible to predict the return on, for example, an index of stocks. However, a series of recent papers have challenged this conventional wisdom. I answer this challenge and show that it is possible to predict returns if structural changes in the underlying economy are taken into account. The third paper examines the comovement between stocks and bonds. I show how it is possible to improve the composition of a portfolio consisting of these two asset classes by taking into account how the comovement changes over time. All three papers are self-contained and can therefore be read in any order. The first paper is entitled “Structural Breaks in Asset Return Predictability: Can They Be Explained?” Here I investigate whether predictability has changed over time and, if so, whether it is possible to tie the change to any underlying economic variables. Dividend yield and the short interest rate are often used jointly as instruments to predict the return on stocks, but several researchers present evidence that the relation has undergone a structural break. I use a model that extends the conventional structural breaks models to allow both for smooth transitions from one state to another (with a break as a special case), and for transitions that depend on a state variable other than time. The latter allows me to directly test whether, for example, the business cycle influences how the instruments predict returns. The results suggest that this is not the case. However, I do find evidence of a structural change primarily in how the instruments predict returns for large firms. The change differs from a break in that it appears to be an extended non-linear transition during the period 1993—1997. After the change, the short rate does not predict returns at all. Dividend yield, on the other hand, is strongly significant, and the return has become more sensitive to it. In the second paper, “Restoring the Predictability of Equity Returns,” I take another perspective on predictability and structural shifts. Several recent papers have questioned the predictability of equity returns, potentially implying serious negative consequences for investment decision-making. With return data including the 1990s, variables that previously predicted returns, such as the dividend yield, are no longer significant and results of out-of-sample tests are often weak. A possible reason is that the underlying structure of the economy has changed. I use an econometric model that allows for regime shifts over time as well as due to changes in a state variable, in this case the price-earnings ratio. This makes it possible to separate influences from these two sources and to determine whether one or both sources have affected return predictability. The results indicate that, first, a structural change occurred during the 1990s, and, second, that the unusually high level of price earnings in the late 1990s and early 2000s temporarily affected predictability at the 12-month horizon. In the third paper, “Coupling and Decoupling: Changing Relations between Stock and Bond Market Returns,” I investigate stock-bond comovement. The correlation between stocks and bonds has changed dramatically over the last ten years, introducing a new type of risk for portfolio managers, namely, correlation risk. I use GARCH estimates of stock volatility, simple regressions, and regime-switching econometric models to assess whether level of volatility, or changes in volatility, can be used to explain some of the changes in comovement in seven different countries. As regards volatility level, strong support is found in almost all countries to suggest that high volatility predicts lower, or negative, comovement. I argue that this can be evidence of a market-timing type of behavior. As for changes in volatility, the results are more mixed. Only for the U.S. market do I find strong support to conclude that large changes tend to coincide with lower, or negative, comovement. This could be evidence of a flight-to-quality (or cross-market hedging) type of behavior. / <p>Diss. Stockholm : Handelshögskolan, 2007</p>

En el capítulo I, se examina el rendimiento de los activos &#64257;nancieros que representan las "mejores ideas" de los gestores de los fondos de inversión. Las inversiones para las que un gestor activo augura un buen rendimiento obtienen mejor retorno de mercado, asi como el resto de inversiones en sus carteras. En el capítulo II, se muestra explicitamente que los gestores que concentran sus carteras en un número reducido de activos, superan reiteradamente sus benchmarks y otros fondos más diversi&#64257;cados. Esta diferencia de rendimiento se puede explicar gracias a las diferencias en la exposición a factores de riesgo valorados por el mercado y al mayor talento de los gestores que se centran en invertir en activos de alta incertidumbre. En el capítulo III, se estudia la información contenida en las transacciones de activos y se muestra que las decisiones recientes de los gestores predicen el rendimiento futuro de las inversiones. Mientras que las compras llevadas a cabo por gestores con una habilidad superior se asocian a un rendimiento futuro anormalmente positivo, los gestores poco hábiles cometen errores de forma sistemática en la selección y en las transacciones de activos. / In Chapter I, we examine the performance of stocks that represent mutual fund managers' "best ideas". The stock that active managers display the most conviction towards ex-ante, signi&#64257;cantly outperforms the market, as well as the other stocks in those managers' portfolios. In Chapter II, I explicitly show that managers, who concentrate their portfolios into a small number of stocks, consistently beat their benchmarks and their more diversi&#64257;ed peers. This performance gap can be explained by differing portfolio exposures towards priced risk factors as well as stronger abilities of concentrated managers when investing in stocks with high uncertainty of information. In Chapter III, I study the information content of portfolio rebalances by mutual fund managers and show that their recent trading decisions predict future stock returns. While purchases by skilled managers are associated with positive future abnormal performance, unskilled managers systematically commit errors in the selection and trading of stocks.

[pt] Propomos uma nova solução para o paradoxo de Grossman Stiglitz [1980]. Trocando sua estrutura informacional por uma restrição de desatenção racional, nós mostramos que os preços podem refletir toda a informação disponível, sem quebrar os incentivos dos participantes do mercado em processar informação. Esse modelo reformula a hipótese dos mercados eficientes e concilia visões opostas: preços são completamente reveladores, mas apenas para aqueles que são suficientemente espertos. Finalmente, nós desenvolvemos um método para postular e resolver modelos de equilíbrio geral Walrasiano que circunscreve hipóteses simplificadoras anteriores. / [en] We propose a new solution for the Grossman and Stiglitz [1980] paradox. By substituting a rational inattention restriction for their information structure, we show that prices can reflect all the information available without breaking the incentives of market participants to gather information. This model reframes the efficient market hypothesis and reconciles opposing views: prices are fully revealing but only for those who are sufficiently smart. Finally, we develop a method for postulating and solving Walrasian general equilibrium models with rationally inattentive agents circumventing previous tractability assumptions.