Planning for Ontario’s future energy supply mix is a very challenging undertaking which requires consideration of various drivers and decision criteria. From the literature review conducted, no published work has been found addressing the multi-period energy planning problem with CO2 emission constraints and the option of carbon capture and storage (CCS). The objective of this project was to develop a novel multi-period mixed-integer non-linear programming (MINLP) model that is able to realize the optimal mix of energy supply sources which will meet current and future electricity demand, CO2 emission targets, and lower the overall cost of electricity. This model was implemented in GAMS (General Algebraic Modeling System). The model was formulated using an objective function that minimizes the net present value of the cost of electricity (COE) over a time horizon of 14 years. The formulation incorporates several time dependent parameters such as forecasted energy demand, fuel price variability, construction lead time, conservation initiatives, and increase in fixed operational and maintenance costs over time. The model was applied to two case studies in order to examine the economical, structural, and environmental effects that would result if Ontario’s electricity sector was required to reduce its CO2 emissions to a specific limit. The first case study examined a base case scenario in which no CO2 limits were imposed. The second case study examined a scenario in which Ontario’s electricity sector must comply with CO2 emission limits similar to the Kyoto target of 6% below 1990 levels. The results indicate that in order to meet the CO2 targets of 6% below 1990 levels, Nanticoke, Atikokan, and Thunder Bay coal-fired power plants must be fuel-switched, and Lambton coal-fired power plant must be retrofitted with a CCS system. Furthermore, a total CO2 reduction of approximately 32% was achieved when compared to the base case. The total cost associated with reducing the CO2 emissions to 6% below 1990 levels, per ton of CO2, was $48.79 / ton CO2 reduced. The total expenditure for Case Study II (CO2 limit of 6% below 1990 levels) was approximately 10.1% higher than for the base case. This model offers many potential benefits to Ontario’s energy sector. In addition to providing an optimal solution for meeting future electricity demand, it can help Ontario meet its emissions targets while minimizing the overall cost of electricity. Furthermore, although this project was aimed at Ontario’s future energy supply mix, it could also be readily applied to other regions or even countries as a whole.

Planning for Ontario’s future energy supply mix is a very challenging undertaking which requires consideration of various drivers and decision criteria. From the literature review conducted, no published work has been found addressing the multi-period energy planning problem with CO2 emission constraints and the option of carbon capture and storage (CCS). The objective of this project was to develop a novel multi-period mixed-integer non-linear programming (MINLP) model that is able to realize the optimal mix of energy supply sources which will meet current and future electricity demand, CO2 emission targets, and lower the overall cost of electricity. This model was implemented in GAMS (General Algebraic Modeling System). The model was formulated using an objective function that minimizes the net present value of the cost of electricity (COE) over a time horizon of 14 years. The formulation incorporates several time dependent parameters such as forecasted energy demand, fuel price variability, construction lead time, conservation initiatives, and increase in fixed operational and maintenance costs over time. The model was applied to two case studies in order to examine the economical, structural, and environmental effects that would result if Ontario’s electricity sector was required to reduce its CO2 emissions to a specific limit. The first case study examined a base case scenario in which no CO2 limits were imposed. The second case study examined a scenario in which Ontario’s electricity sector must comply with CO2 emission limits similar to the Kyoto target of 6% below 1990 levels. The results indicate that in order to meet the CO2 targets of 6% below 1990 levels, Nanticoke, Atikokan, and Thunder Bay coal-fired power plants must be fuel-switched, and Lambton coal-fired power plant must be retrofitted with a CCS system. Furthermore, a total CO2 reduction of approximately 32% was achieved when compared to the base case. The total cost associated with reducing the CO2 emissions to 6% below 1990 levels, per ton of CO2, was $48.79 / ton CO2 reduced. The total expenditure for Case Study II (CO2 limit of 6% below 1990 levels) was approximately 10.1% higher than for the base case. This model offers many potential benefits to Ontario’s energy sector. In addition to providing an optimal solution for meeting future electricity demand, it can help Ontario meet its emissions targets while minimizing the overall cost of electricity. Furthermore, although this project was aimed at Ontario’s future energy supply mix, it could also be readily applied to other regions or even countries as a whole.

In recent decades, interest in placing renewable resources in conventional power systems has increased because of their ability to reduce fossil fuel consumption, which leads to the preservation of the environment. The rapid increase in employing these renewable resource-based DGs drives the system to be more dynamic, and causes many obstacles that need to be overcome. Power system planners and operators should look at the distribution system from another angle, taking into consideration the intermittent behavior of most renewable resources. Furthermore, solid models that are able to handle the uncertainty in generation levels are required. This thesis presents a comprehensive probabilistic model for representing renewable energy resources in long term planning problems. This model utilized large historical data sets, grouping technique, and statistical analysis in order to handle the fluctuations that are caused by the variations in wind speed or solar irradiance. In this research, renewable resources (wind and PV based DGs) ae well as dispatchable units are optimally allocated and sized using a probabilistic optimization model. This model incorporates the intermittent nature of wind speed and solar radiation into the deterministic optimal power flow equations. The variability from the load side and the uncertainty from the feeding side are considered. Genetic algorithm is used in order to minimize the annual energy losses of a distribution system. This thesis proposes a new iterative-based optimization algorithm is proposed in order to determine the minimum number of states that can precisely describe or represent the behavior of wind speed and solar irradiance in operational planning problems. This algorithm is evaluated using a power system planning problem. The proposed algorithm takes into account the annual energy losses and the total DG penetration level and considers them as an indication of how far the proposed method's outcomes are from the actual results. Three di fferent data groupings are applied (hourly, seasonally, and yearly) to investigate the variety of weather and electricity demands on the proposed method. The obtained results should be maintained within an acceptable limit of error which is in this thesis, 2:5%, and any violation of this limit will interrupt the algorithm sequences. The importance of this method actually lies in its ability to reduce the complexity in reliability analysis such that the number of overall system states will be minimized when the analytical evaluation methods are utilized.

abstract: The International Energy Agency (IEA) anticipates the global energy demand to grow by more than 25% by 2040, requiring more than $2 trillion a year of investment in new energy supply (IEA, 2018). With power needs increasing as populations grow and climate extremes become more routine, power companies seek to continually increase capacity, improve efficiency, and provide resilience to the power grid, such that they can meet the energy needs of the societies they serve, often while trying to minimize their carbon emissions. Despite significant research dedicated to planning for industrial projects, including power generation projects as well as the pipeline projects that enable power generation and distribute power, there are still endemic cost overruns and schedule delays in large scale power generation projects. This research explores root causes of these seemingly systemic project performance issues that plague power generation projects. Specifically, this work analyzes approximately 770 power and pipeline projects and identifies how project performance indicators (i.e., cost and schedule performance) as well as planning indicators, compare in two regulatory environments, namely nonregulated and regulated markets. This contributes explicit understanding of the relationship between project performance and regulatory environment, both quantitatively and qualitatively, to the pipeline and power project planning and construction bodies of knowledge. Following an understanding of nonregulated versus regulated markets, this research takes a deeper dive into one highly-regulated power sector, the nuclear power sector, and explores root causes for cost overruns and schedule delays. This work leverages gray literature (i.e., newspaper articles) as sources, in order to analyze projects individually (most academic literature presents data about an aggregated set of projects) and understand the public perception of risks associated with such projects. This work contributes an understanding of the risks associated with nuclear power plant construction to the nuclear power plant construction body of knowledge. Ultimately, the findings from this research support improved planning for power and pipeline projects, in turn leading to more predictable projects, in terms of cost and schedule performance, regardless of regulatory environment. This enables power providers to meet the capacity demands of a growing population within budget and schedule. / Dissertation/Thesis / Doctoral Dissertation Civil, Environmental and Sustainable Engineering 2020

Thesis (Ph. D.)--Oregon State University, 1995. / Typescript (photocopy). Includes bibliographical references (leaves 237-252). Also available online.

Hydro power producers are faced with the task of releasing water from the reservoirs in the right time. To do this there are tools using stochastic optimization that aims at maximizing the income of that producer. The existing methods have a high computing time and grow exponentially with the size of the problem. A new approach that uses linear decision rules is investigated in this thesis to see if it is possible to maintain the same quality of the solutions and in the same time decrease run times. With this method the hydro power producer receives policies as an affine function of the realization of the uncertainty variables in inflow and price. This thesis presents a deterministic model and then converts it into an linear decision rules, LDR, model. It also presents a way to model the uncertainty in both inflow to the reservoir and the spot price. The result is that the LDR approach generates reasonable policies with low run times but loses a lot of optimality compared to solutions that are used today. Therefore it is concluded that this approach needs further development before commercial use. The work described in this thesis has been done in cooperation with three master students at NTNU. The approach of using linear decision rules are the same in the two projects but the differences are the models evaluated.

Orientador: Rubén Augusto Romero Lázaro / Resumo: Os sistemas elétricos do futuro próximo terão um comportamento dinâmico porque grandes fontes renováveis de geração, principalmente geração eólica e solar, serão construídas nos sistemas de potência de vários países do mundo incluindo o Brasil. A incerteza introduzida pelas fontes renováveis de energia é um problema que deve ser solucionado. Para resolver o problema da incerteza é necessário criar uma rede mais flexível. A alocação de armazenadores de energia no sistema de potência será necessária para lidar com as novas incertezas e para manter o funcionamento adequado do sistema. Adicionalmente, o sistema de transmissão deve-se tornar muito mais ativo através do uso de novas tecnologias flexíveis que permitirão ter um controle ótimo do sistema. As novas tecnologias incluem Sistemas Flexíveis de Transmissão em Corrente Alternada (FACTS), sistemas de transmissão de corrente continua (HVDC) e outras tecnologias que permitirão controlar as direções dos fluxos de potência sem alterar a geração ou demanda do sistema. Portanto, nesta tese são estudadas diferentes representações matemáticas para os problemas de fluxo de potência ótimo (FPO), planejamento da transmissão de longo prazo (PERT) e alocação de fontes de reativos (AFR) usando as equações de fluxo de potência de corrente alternada (CA). Adicionalmente, são propostas novas formulações para representar os problemas de fluxo de potência ótimo multiperíodo para sistemas de transmissão ativos que incluem FACTS, sistemas HVDC e ... (Resumo completo, clicar acesso eletrônico abaixo) / Abstract: The future power systems will have a dynamic behaviour due to a significant amount of renewable generation, especially wind and solar generation, will be installed in the power systems of many countries in the world including Brazil.The uncertainty introduced by the renewable energy resources is a problem that has to be solved. The development of a flexible network is necessary to solve the aforementioned problem. The installation of energy storage in the power system will be necessary to manage the new uncertainties and to maintain the adequate system’s operation. Additionally, the transmission system will become more active though new flexible technologies, which allows having an optimal control of the power system. The new technologies include Flexible AC Transmission System (FACTS), High Voltage Direct current (HVDC) transmission systems and other technologies, which allow controlling the power flow direction without changing the power injections of generation or demand. Therefore, in this thesis are studied different mathematical formulations using the AC power flow equations for the optimal power flow (OPF) problem, the transmission expansion planning (TEP) problem and the reactive power planning (RPP) problem. Furthermore, two additional contributions have been made. The first contribution is the development of new mathematical formulations for the multiperiod optimal power flow for active transmission systems that includes FACTS, HVDC and batteries. The second contrib... (Complete abstract click electronic access below) / Doutor

In the light of the on-going climate emergency and energy crisis, wind power has been described as a rapid pathway towards increasing the share of renewable energy as well as electricity production. However, time consuming and complex permitting processes has been a central obstacle for the transition to take place. Municipalities have a strong influence over land use planning in Sweden and despite the urgent need to increase renewable energy production, few wind power projects are permitted.  Previous research has underlined capacity building between local and regional levels as a pathway to strengthen local institutions and stimulate wind power developments. Following Arts et al. definition of ‘tiering’ as the deliberate, organized transfer of information and issues from one level of planning to another, collaboration between different tiers is described as fundamental for successful projects. By analysing data from interviews, documents, and observations, this study has investigated what role collaboration between tiers plays in the Regional Wind Power Analysis in Värmland, and how the project could lead to more effective planning processes for wind power. The results indicate that the Regional Wind Power Analysis can strengthen the planning process for wind power by raising awareness and stimulating knowledge building between important stakeholders, which consequently can make it easier to understand how and potentially where to engage in wind power planning. In line with previous research, the study also illustrates the potential governing role the County Administration Board can play for coordinating projects and building institutional capacity for inter-municipal and inter-regional issues, including wind power. Even though the project has been appreciated, if financial incentives remain scarce, there will not be enough reason to engage in wind power planning locally. / I ljuset av den pågående klimat- och energikrisen har vindkraft lyfts fram som en möjlig väg framåt för att snabbt kunna öka elproduktionen och ställa om till en förnybar energisektor. Trots det så har osäkra tillståndsprocesser blivit ett allt större problem för vindkraftsaktörer, vilket utgör ett tydligt hinder för att bygga fler vindkraftsparker. Kommunerna har med sitt planeringsmonopol ett stort inflytande över markanvändningen i Sverige, och trots behovet av en snabb och grön energiomställning så säger kommunerna allt oftare nej till vindkraft. Tidigare forskning har pekat ut kapacitetsstödjande åtgärder mellan lokal och regional nivå som en möjlig lösning för att bistå kommunerna i vindkraftsärenden och således öka vindkraftsproduktionen.  Med avstamp i Arts et al. definition av tiering som en medveten, organiserad överföring av information och frågor från en planeringsnivå till en annan har samverkan mellan olika nivåer beskrivits som en stöttepelare för lyckade planeringsprojekt. Genom intervju-, dokument och observationsstudier har denna studie undersökt vilken roll samverkan mellan olika planeringsnivåer spelar i den regionala vindkraftsanalysen i Värmland och vidare hur projektet kan främja vindkraftsplanering. Resultatet visar att den regionala vindkraftsanalysen kan stärka planeringen för vindkraft genom att öka medvetenheten och bygga upp en förståelse hos olika aktörer, vilket kan göra det lättare att förstå hur och potentiellt var det är lämpligt att utveckla vindkraft. I linje med tidigare forskning pekar denna studie också ut Länsstyrelsen som en viktig aktör för att leda projekt och bygga institutionell kapacitet där olika aktörer kan samverka för att hantera mellankommunala och regionala frågor, så som vindkraftsärenden. Trots att vindkraftsanalysen kan leda till ökad samverkan och är ett uppskattat projekt, så visar studien att bristen på ekonomiska incitament lokalt leder till få anledningar för kommunerna att vilja engagera sig i vindkraftsutbyggnad.

In recent years, the electric power industry around the world is changing continuously due to transformation from regulated market structure to deregulated market structure. The main aim of the transformation of electric supply industry under open access environment is to overcome the some of the limitations faced by the vertically integrated system. It is believed that this transformation will bring in new technologies, integration of other sources of energy such as wind, solar, fuel cells, bio-gas, etc., which are self sustainable and competitive, and better choice for the consumers and so on. As a result, several new issues and challenges have emerged. One of the main issues in power systems is to support reactive power for maintaining the system voltage profile with an acceptable margin of security and reliability required for system operation. In this context, the thesis addresses some of the problems related to planning and operation of reactive power in power systems. Studies are mainly focused on steady state operation of grid systems, grid connected wind farms and distribution systems as well. The reactive power support and loss allocation using Y-bus approach is proposed. It computes the reactive power contribution from various reactive sources to meet the reactive load demand and losses. Further, the allocation of reactive power loss to load or sink buses is also computed. Detailed case studies are carried out on 11-bus equivalent system of Indian southern region power grid under different loading conditions and also tested on 259-bus equivalent system of Indian western region power grid. A comparative analysis is also carried out with the proportional sharing principle and one of the circuit based approach in the literature to highlight the features of the proposed approach. A new reactive power loss index is proposed for identification of weak buses in the system. The new index is computed from the proposed Y-bus approach for the system under intact condition as well as some severe contingencies cases. Fuzzy logic approach is used to select the important and severe line contingencies from the contingency list. The validation of weak load buses identification from the proposed reactive power loss index with that from other well known existing methods in the literature such as Q-V sensitivity based modal analysis and continuation power flow method is carried out to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed index. Then, a short-term reactive power procurement/optimal reactive power dispatch analysis is also carried out to determine the optimum size of the reactive compensation devices to be placed at the weak buses for reactive compensation performance analysis in the system. The proposed approach is illustrated on a sample 5-bus system, and tested on sample 10-bus equivalent system and 72-bus equivalent system of Indian southern region power grid. A comprehensive power flow analysis of PQ type models for wind turbine generating units is presented. The different PQ type models of fixed/semi-variable speed wind turbine generating units are considered for the studies. In addition, the variable speed wind turbine generating units are considered in fixed power factor mode of operation. Based on these models, a comparative analysis is carried out to assess the impact of wind generation on distribution and transmission systems. 27-bus equivalent distribution test system, 93-bus equivalent test system and SR 297-bus equivalent grid connected wind system are considered for the studies. Lastly, reactive power coordination for voltage stability improvement in grid connected wind farms with different types of wind turbine generating units based on fuzzy logic approach is presented. In the proposed approach, the load bus voltage deviation is minimized by changing the reactive power controllers according to their sensitivity using fuzzy set theory. The fixed/semi-variable speed wind turbine generating units are also considered in the studies because of its impact on overall system voltage performance even though they do not support the system for voltage unlike variable speed wind generators. 297-bus equivalent and 417-bus equivalent grid connected wind systems are considered to present the simulation results. A comparative analysis is also carried out with the conventional linear programming based reactive power optimization technique to highlight the features of the proposed approach.