This thesis explores whether scanner data can be used to inform Consumer Price Index (CPI) construction, with particular reference to the issues of substitution bias and choice of aggregation dimensions. The potential costs and benefits of using scanner data are reviewed. Existing estimates of substitution bias are found to show considerable variation. An Australian scanner data set is used to estimate substitution bias for six different aggregation methods and for fixed base and superlative indexes. Direct and chained indexes are also calculated. Estimates of substitution bias are found to be highly sensitive to both the method of aggregation used and whether direct or chained indexes were used. The ILO (2004) recommends the use of dissimilarity indexes to determine the issue of when to chain. This thesis provides the first empirical study of dissimilarity indexes in this context. The results indicate that dissimilarity indexes may not be sufficient to resolve the issue. A Constant Elasticity of Substitution (CES) index provides an approximate estimate of substitution-bias-free price change, without the need for current period expenditure weights. However, an elasticity parameter is needed. Two methods, referred to as the algebraic and econometric methods, were used to estimate the elasticity parameter. The econometric approach involved the estimation of a system of equations proposed by Diewert (2002a). This system has not been estimated previously. The results show a relatively high level of substitution at the elementary aggregate level, which supports the use a Jevons index, rather than Carli or Dutot indexes, at this level. Elasticity parameter estimates were found to vary considerably across time, and statistical testing showed that elasticity parameter estimates were significantly different across estimation methods. Aggregation is an extremely important issue in the compilation of the CPI. However, little information exists about 'appropriate' aggregation methods. Aggregation is typically recommended over 'homogenous' units. An hedonic framework is used to test for item homogeneity across four supermarket chains and across all stores within each chain. This is a novel approach. The results show that treating the same good as homogenous across stores which belong to the same chain may be recommended.

The growth of electricity markets around the world has introduced new challenges in which one of the challenges is the uncertainty that has become a structural element in this new environment. Market players have to deal with it to guarantee the appropriate power system planning and operation as well as its own economical liquidity. Under an open access environment in a deregulated power system, transmission management holds a vital role in supporting transactions between suppliers and customers. Nevertheless, a transmission network has some constraints that should be addressed in order to ensure sufficient control to maintain the security level of a power system while maximizing market efficiency. The most obvious drawback of transmission constraints is a congestion problem that becomes an obstacle of perfect competition among the market participants since it can influence spot market pricing. The system becomes congested when the supplier and customer agree to produce and consume a particular amount of electric power, but this can cause the transmission network to exceed its thermal limits. Congestion can cause the market players to exercise market power that can result in price volatility beyond the marginal costs. Thus, it is important to manage congestion efficiently in the design of a power market. One mechanism that has direct correlation with transmission management is market clearing price (MCP). Under an open access environment, energy prices throughout the network will be different and measured based on transmission constraint and network losses. When network losses are ignored and there is no congestion on the transmission lines, the power price will be the same at all nodes. This is known as uniform marginal pricing (UMP). However, as the power flow violates transmission constraints, redispatching generating units is required and this will cause the price at every node to vary. This phenomenon is defined as locational marginal pricing (LMP). Therefore, the market clearing price has a strong relationship with transmission management, which is needed to be assessed in order to obtain an efficient and transparent price but satisfying all market participants. This project investigates an alternative solution to the dispatch mechanism, and then formulates a new Locational Marginal Price scheme using optimization technique that may well control congestion as the main issue. The model will vary and be improved, to be distilled into energy price, congestion revenue, cost of losses, as well as transmission usage tariff. The objective of the project is to support developing standard market design (SMD) in managing transmission systems which promotes economic efficiency, lowers delivered energy costs, maintains power system reliability and mitigates exercising market power.

Syftet med studien har varit att undersöka om det är möjligt att tillämpa en beslutsmodell för att lösa ett problem avseende anbudsstrategi vid offentlig upphandling. När ett företag har en kund som omfattas av lagen om offentlig upphandling gäller särskilda regler vid upphandlingar. För ett företag är det viktigt att känna till dessa regler vid inlämning av anbud. Detta är dock oftast inte tillräckligt för att vinna en upphandling, eftersom det då också gäller att deras produkts jämförelsepris är lägre än konkurrenternas. En beslutsmodell, baserad på data från tidigare upphandlingar, har tagits fram för att kunna underbygga ett verktyg gällande anbudsstrategi. Beslutsmodellen är uppbyggd av diverse teorier som beslutsmatris, beslutsträd, lognormal fördelning och förväntat monetärt värde. Tillvägagångssättet har bestått av insamling av information och data via intervjuer, samt andra källor såsom litteratur, artiklar, uppsatser och upphandlingar, där metoden design science har använts. Utifrån en generell beslutsmatris och ett beslutsträd samt beräkningar har beslutsmodellen kunnat tas fram. Beslutsmodellen är i första hand avsedd för att underbygga ett verktyg för företag som är leverantör av eldrivna rullstolar men skulle även kunna appliceras i andra typer av upphandlingar. Beslutsmodellen kan ge stöd till ett verktyg som i sin tur skulle kunna användas av beslutsfattare. Beslutsfattarna får dock inte endast utgå från dess information, som är baserad på tidigare upphandlingar, utan bör också analysera konkurrenternas nutidssituation. Nyckelord: Beslutsmodell, offentlig upphandling, anbudspris, jämförelsepris, beslutsfattare, beslutsmatris, beslutsträd, lognormal fördelning, förväntat monetärt värde / The aim of the study has been to investigate if it is possible to apply a decision model when solving a problem with bidding strategies in public procurement. When a company has costumers comprehended by the laws in public procurement, there are certain rules involved. For a company it is important to be aware about these rules, when setting their bids. Though this is often not enough for a winning procurement, because of the fact that the products comparison prices need to be lower than the competitors'. A decision model, based on data from earlier procurements, has been developed to reinforce a tool with bidding strategies. The decision model is composed by various theories, like decision matrix, decision tree, lognormal distribution and expected monetary value. The procedure through the study has contained data and information acquisition via interviews and other references like literature, articles, thesis and procurements. Based on a general decision matrix and a decision tree, as with calculations, the decision model has been generated. The decision model is mainly designed to reinforce a tool for companies supplying electric wheelchairs to costumers but could also be applicable in other types of procurements. The decision model could be a support when constructing a tool, which consequently could be used by decision makers. The decision makers can however not only adopt the ideas based on earlier procurements. They also need to analyse the competitors’ situations in present time. Keywords: Decision model, public procurement, bidding prices, comparison prices, decision maker, decision matrix, decision tree, lognormal distribution, expected monetary value

Until the introduction of the trade liberalization initiatives of 1989, the wine producers of British Columbia appeared to have operated in an environment that fostered less than competitive behaviour. Two factors in particular may have been responsible for creating such an environment: (1) the structure of the industry was inherently oligopolistic; and (2) protection from foreign competition was afforded by the British Columbia government in the form of a wine policy that effectively created non-tariff trade barriers against foreign wine producers. This study econometrically tests the hypothesis that British Columbia wine producers behaved non-competitively during the years 1957 to 1986. A model of the British Columbia wine industry is developed and used to estimate the degree of non-competitive pricing behaviour in the industry, and tests are undertaken to determine whether the estimate of behaviour is consistent with competitive or with other well known behavioral specifications. the main structural components of the industry are described in a model of oligopolistic behaviour using a linear system of equations, in which both demand and pricing equations appear. The parameters which affect each of these equations are estimated using the appropriate estimation technique. The econometric results, and the subsequent statistical tests, support the hypothesis that the domestic wine industry in British Columbia operated in a non-competitive manner between 1957 and 1986. Specifically, the hypothesis of competitive behaviour is statistically rejected, whereas, the hypotheses of Cournot and collusive-type behaviour could not be rejected. These results suggest that British Columbia consumers may have been sacrificing to firms at least a portion of the surplus they would have obtained in a perfectly competitive industry. In addition, it appears that the wine policy of the provincial government helped create a non-competitive industry that will likely have difficulty competing in today's global market for wine.

Magistro baigiamajame darbe išanalizuotas pasaulinės gamtinių dujų rinkos veikimo modelis, suskystintų gamtinių dujų terminalų technologijos įtaka pasaulinei gamtinių dujų rinkai bei atskiriems pasaulio regionams priklausomai nuo išvystytos dujų transportavimo infrastruktūros, sukurtas ekonominis SGDT teikiamų valstybės reguliuojamų paslaugų kainų nustatymo modelis Lietuvoje, iškeltos SGDT funkcionavimo ekonominio poveikio gamtinių dujų kainų pokyčiams Lietuvoje (izoliuotoje rinkoje) problemos bei pagal atliktus empirinio tyrimo rezultatus pateikti siūlymai rinkos dalyviams bei kitiems suinteresuotiems asmenims dėl galimų veiksmų pradėjus veikti SGDT 2014 m. gruodžio mėn. Lietuvoje. Pirmajame skyriuje sudaromas pasaulinės gamtinių dujų rinkos veikimo modelis, nagrinėjami ryšiai tarp pagrindinių jo sudedamųjų dalių (gavyba, transportavimas, vartojimas vidaus rinkoje), naujai atrandamų technologijų įtaka kiekvienai iš jų. Antroje dalyje analizuojama Lietuvos gamtinių dujų rinka ir ją supanti teisinė, ekonominė bei politinė aplinkos, aptariamos SGD galimos perspektyvos Lietuvoje. Trečioje dalyje analizuojamas autoriaus kartu su Valstybinės kainų ir energetikos kontrolės komisijos specialistais parengtas ekonominis SGDT teikiamų paslaugų kainos skaičiavimo modelis, aptariama importo kainos prognozavimo metodika, įvertinami pasirinktos metodikos trūkumai ir privalumai, aprašomi kt. metodai, kuriais remiantis ketvirtoje dalyje atliekamas empirinis tyrimas šiame darbe iškeltai... [toliau žr. visą tekstą] / This Master thesis contains: presentation of global natural gas market functioning model and LNGT technology impact on this market, as well as regions according to their infrastructure of gas transportation; creation of economic model for calculating natural gas import prices forecasts and forecasts for prices of regulated LNGT services in Lithuania; presentation of economic problems of LNGT impact on natural gas prices in Lithuania (as an isolated market) and considering the results of empirical research, suggestions of possible actions for market players and third parties after Lithuanian LNGT begins its operations in December, 2014. The first part of the thesis includes examination of global natural gas market functioning, the relations between its main components (extraction, transportation, consumption in domestic markets) and influence of the new technologies for each of them. The second part analyses Lithuanian natural gas market: its legal, economic and political environment, as well as presents LNG perspectives in Lithuania. The third part consists of introducing the economic LNGT services’ price model which was created by author of this thesis in collaboration with specialists of National control commission for prices and energy, also the methodology of calculating forecasts for natural gas import prices, its advantages and disadvantages, as well as other methods which were employed to solve the main problem of the Master thesis in the last part of this work.

This dissertation contains three essays in international macroeconomics and financial time series forecasting. In the first essay, I show, numerically, that a two-country New-Keynesian Sticky Prices model, driven by monetary and productivity shocks, is capable of explaining the highly positive correlation across the industrialized countries' inflation even though their cross-country correlation in money growth rate is negligible. The structure of this model generates cross-country correlations of inflation, output and consumption that appear to closely correspond to the data. Additionally, this model can explain the internal correlation between inflation and output observed in the data. The second essay presents two important results. First, gains from monetary policy cooperation are different from zero when the elasticity of substitution between domestic and imported goods consumption is different from one. Second, when monetary policy is endogenous in a two-country model, the only Nash equilibria supported by this model are those that are symmetrical. That is, all exporting firms in both countries choose to price in their own currency, or all exporting firms in both countries choose to price in the importer's currency. The last essay provides both conditional and unconditional predictive ability evaluations of the aluminum futures contracts prices, by using five different econometric models, in forecasting the aluminum spot price monthly return 3, 15, and 27-months ahead for the sample period 1989.01-2010.10. From these evaluations, the best model in forecasting the aluminum spot price monthly return 3 and 15 months ahead is followed by a (VAR) model whose variables are aluminum futures contracts price, aluminum spot price and risk free interest rate, whereas for the aluminum spot price monthly return 27 months ahead is a single equation model in which the aluminum spot price today is explained by the aluminum futures price 27 months earlier. Finally, it shows that iterated multiperiod-ahead time series forecasts have a better conditional out-of-sample forecasting performance of the aluminum spot price monthly return when an estimated (VAR) model is used as a forecasting tool.

L'objectiu d'aquesta tesi és analitzar els preus hotelers, que inclouen tant el preu que cobra l'hoteler com el que paga el turista. Més en concret, aquesta tesi pretén entendre i explicar la política de preus del sector hoteler, utilitzant per aquest fi els conceptes, instruments i models de l'anàlisi econòmica. L'explotació exhaustiva dels catàlegs dels operadors turístics representa la principal aposta metodològica d'aquest treball. També s'han creat diferents bases de dades de preus hotelers, s'han explotat les dades i preus de guies hoteleres, i s'han fet enquestes als hotelers per conèixer el preu que paga un turista particular. Les aportacions més importants fan referència als preus del sector hoteler, que és el nucli principal del treball, i es podrien resumir de la manera següent:-Determinar com es determinen els preus en el sector hoteler-Conèixer el grau de competència entre operadors turístics-Disposar d'una evolució temporal i estacional dels preus dels hotels. En aquest sentit, la metodologia i les dades emprades podrien ser un punt de partida per elaborar una sèrie temporal de preus i d'aquesta manera corregir la mancança actual d'un índex de preus hoteler -Identificar els serveis i les característiques dels hotels que no tenen un preu explícit, però que resulten rellevants a l'hora de negociar uns preus superiors-Examinar les estratègies de preus d'alguns operadors turístics estrangers-I, en general, millorar el coneixement sobre els preus hotelers / The aim of this thesis is to analyse hotel prices, which include both the rate the hotel charges and what the tourist pays. More concretely, the thesis aims to understand and explain the charges policy of the hotel sector and uses to this end the concepts, tools and models of economic analysis.The exhaustive examination of tour operators' brochures is the main method used in this study. Various data bases of hotel charges were also created; the data and tariffs in hotel guides were used; and questionnaires were submitted to hoteliers on the tariffs a private tourist pays.The main contributions referred to the prices in the hotel sector, which is the central nucleus of the study, and can be summarised as follows:-To determine how tariffs are set in the hotel sector.-To find how much competition there is between tour operators.-To examine how hotel charges vary over time and seasonally. The methodology and data employed could be a starting-point for working out a series of charges over time, and so rectifying the current lack of an index of hotel prices.-To identify the services and characteristics of those hotels without an explicit charge, but which are relevant when the question of negotiating higher charges arises.-To examine the price strategies of some foreign tour operators.-And, in general, to extend knowledge of hotel tariffs.

This thesis explores whether scanner data can be used to inform Consumer Price Index (CPI) construction, with particular reference to the issues of substitution bias and choice of aggregation dimensions. The potential costs and benefits of using scanner data are reviewed. Existing estimates of substitution bias are found to show considerable variation. An Australian scanner data set is used to estimate substitution bias for six different aggregation methods and for fixed base and superlative indexes. Direct and chained indexes are also calculated. Estimates of substitution bias are found to be highly sensitive to both the method of aggregation used and whether direct or chained indexes were used. The ILO (2004) recommends the use of dissimilarity indexes to determine the issue of when to chain. This thesis provides the first empirical study of dissimilarity indexes in this context. The results indicate that dissimilarity indexes may not be sufficient to resolve the issue. A Constant Elasticity of Substitution (CES) index provides an approximate estimate of substitution-bias-free price change, without the need for current period expenditure weights. However, an elasticity parameter is needed. Two methods, referred to as the algebraic and econometric methods, were used to estimate the elasticity parameter. The econometric approach involved the estimation of a system of equations proposed by Diewert (2002a). This system has not been estimated previously. The results show a relatively high level of substitution at the elementary aggregate level, which supports the use a Jevons index, rather than Carli or Dutot indexes, at this level. Elasticity parameter estimates were found to vary considerably across time, and statistical testing showed that elasticity parameter estimates were significantly different across estimation methods. Aggregation is an extremely important issue in the compilation of the CPI. However, little information exists about 'appropriate' aggregation methods. Aggregation is typically recommended over 'homogenous' units. An hedonic framework is used to test for item homogeneity across four supermarket chains and across all stores within each chain. This is a novel approach. The results show that treating the same good as homogenous across stores which belong to the same chain may be recommended.

The growth of electricity markets around the world has introduced new challenges in which one of the challenges is the uncertainty that has become a structural element in this new environment. Market players have to deal with it to guarantee the appropriate power system planning and operation as well as its own economical liquidity. Under an open access environment in a deregulated power system, transmission management holds a vital role in supporting transactions between suppliers and customers. Nevertheless, a transmission network has some constraints that should be addressed in order to ensure sufficient control to maintain the security level of a power system while maximizing market efficiency. The most obvious drawback of transmission constraints is a congestion problem that becomes an obstacle of perfect competition among the market participants since it can influence spot market pricing. The system becomes congested when the supplier and customer agree to produce and consume a particular amount of electric power, but this can cause the transmission network to exceed its thermal limits. Congestion can cause the market players to exercise market power that can result in price volatility beyond the marginal costs. Thus, it is important to manage congestion efficiently in the design of a power market. One mechanism that has direct correlation with transmission management is market clearing price (MCP). Under an open access environment, energy prices throughout the network will be different and measured based on transmission constraint and network losses. When network losses are ignored and there is no congestion on the transmission lines, the power price will be the same at all nodes. This is known as uniform marginal pricing (UMP). However, as the power flow violates transmission constraints, redispatching generating units is required and this will cause the price at every node to vary. This phenomenon is defined as locational marginal pricing (LMP). Therefore, the market clearing price has a strong relationship with transmission management, which is needed to be assessed in order to obtain an efficient and transparent price but satisfying all market participants. This project investigates an alternative solution to the dispatch mechanism, and then formulates a new Locational Marginal Price scheme using optimization technique that may well control congestion as the main issue. The model will vary and be improved, to be distilled into energy price, congestion revenue, cost of losses, as well as transmission usage tariff. The objective of the project is to support developing standard market design (SMD) in managing transmission systems which promotes economic efficiency, lowers delivered energy costs, maintains power system reliability and mitigates exercising market power.

The growth of electricity markets around the world has introduced new challenges in which one of the challenges is the uncertainty that has become a structural element in this new environment. Market players have to deal with it to guarantee the appropriate power system planning and operation as well as its own economical liquidity. Under an open access environment in a deregulated power system, transmission management holds a vital role in supporting transactions between suppliers and customers. Nevertheless, a transmission network has some constraints that should be addressed in order to ensure sufficient control to maintain the security level of a power system while maximizing market efficiency. The most obvious drawback of transmission constraints is a congestion problem that becomes an obstacle of perfect competition among the market participants since it can influence spot market pricing. The system becomes congested when the supplier and customer agree to produce and consume a particular amount of electric power, but this can cause the transmission network to exceed its thermal limits. Congestion can cause the market players to exercise market power that can result in price volatility beyond the marginal costs. Thus, it is important to manage congestion efficiently in the design of a power market. One mechanism that has direct correlation with transmission management is market clearing price (MCP). Under an open access environment, energy prices throughout the network will be different and measured based on transmission constraint and network losses. When network losses are ignored and there is no congestion on the transmission lines, the power price will be the same at all nodes. This is known as uniform marginal pricing (UMP). However, as the power flow violates transmission constraints, redispatching generating units is required and this will cause the price at every node to vary. This phenomenon is defined as locational marginal pricing (LMP). Therefore, the market clearing price has a strong relationship with transmission management, which is needed to be assessed in order to obtain an efficient and transparent price but satisfying all market participants. This project investigates an alternative solution to the dispatch mechanism, and then formulates a new Locational Marginal Price scheme using optimization technique that may well control congestion as the main issue. The model will vary and be improved, to be distilled into energy price, congestion revenue, cost of losses, as well as transmission usage tariff. The objective of the project is to support developing standard market design (SMD) in managing transmission systems which promotes economic efficiency, lowers delivered energy costs, maintains power system reliability and mitigates exercising market power.