The general objective has been to empirically analyze how Hotelling’s rule has predicted the crude oil price development over the last 100 years and if the rule can work as a framework to predict future resource prices. Hotelling’s rule has been perceived as both outdated and relevant, during the last decades. A general conclusion from previous research is that resource price-developments are more complex than Hotelling assumed. The analysis has been conducted through tests of variables like interest rates, time spans and extraction costs. The assumption of exponentially increasing resource prices has also been tested. The results obtained show no general support for the Hotelling-rule’s ability to predict future prices. Our results suggest that Hotelling’s rule predicts price paths best when a short time-span is considered. The lack of predictability is due to high volatility in resource prices, something Hotelling’s rule does not account for. / Det övergripande syftet med denna studie har varit att empiriskt analysera hur väl Hotellings-regel har förutspått utvecklingen av oljepriset under de senaste hundra åren och om regeln fungerar som ett bra ramverk för att kunna förutspå framtida resurspriser. Hotellings-regel har uppfattats som både föråldrad samt relevant under de senaste årtiondena. En generell slutsats från tidigare forskning är dock att utvecklingen av icke-förnybara resursers priser är mer komplex än vad Hotelling antog. Analysen har utförts genom tester av olika variabler som räntor, tidsperioder och utvinningskostnader. Antagandet om exponentiellt ökande resurspriser har också testats. De erhållna resultaten ger inget generellt stöd för Hotelling regeln som ett bra ramverk till att förutspå framtida resurspriser. Resultaten tyder dock på att Hotellings-regel förutspår framtida priser bäst när en kortare tidsperiod antas. Modellens avsaknad av förutsägbarhet är sannolikt på grund av volatilitet i resurspriser, något som Hotellings-regel inte tar fullt hänsyn till.

Cada vez mais, a competividade fortalece a filosofia de administração empresarial baseada na orientação para o cliente e para o lucro. A busca de novas formas de relacionamento com os clientes requer instrumentos que possam personalizar inclusive os preços que compõem a equação de valor de cada um. O que temos visto, na prática, são ações que não consideram a dinâmica das forças do mercado, representada pelas curvas de oferta e demanda, e por isso expõem a organização ao risco de propor um processo de troca que não atenda ao preceito de que deve beneficiar tanto o vendedor quanto o comprador, como fator mais importante para a manutenção de um relacinamento de longo prazo. Os instrumentos apresentados como equações matemamáticas, pretendem viabilizar a adoção de forma monitorada com os objetos da gestão econômica. Como benefício complementar, os intrumentos por requererem regras claras, objetivas e bem delimitadas para os processos de negociação, permitem compartilhar de maneira justa, a responsabilidade sobre o atingimento dos resultados através de transações comerciais. / Competitiveness fortifies the entrepreneurial management philosophy that prioritizes more and more, customers and profit. The search for new relationship between companies and customers requires appropriate tools to even, embody the prices that composes the equation of value. We have noticed according to the procedures, actions disrespecting the dynamic of market forces, represented by supply and demand curves and, as a consequence, the companies can be involved in a trading process that can not serve neither the seller nor the buyer, damaging the relationship in the long run. The algorithms presented as mathematical equation aim at enabling the approval of the dynamic prices in trading processes to support their own flexibility in a controlled way that is connected to the goals of the economic management. As a complementary benefit, the algorithms require clear, delimitative and objective rules for the dealing processes and make possible sharing in a fair way, the responsability for the achievement of the results through the trading negotiations.

Lau, Chi Keung. / Thesis (M.Phil.)--Chinese University of Hong Kong, 2000. / Includes bibliographical references (leaves 187-188). / Abstracts in English and Chinese. / Abstract --- p.i / Acknowledgements --- p.iii / Table of Contents --- p.iv / List of Chosen Samples Results --- p.v / List of Tables --- p.vi / List of Figures --- p.vii / Chapter Chapter 1. --- Introduction --- p.1 / Chapter Chapter 2. --- Literature Review --- p.4 / Chapter 2.1 --- Real Estate Literature --- p.4 / Chapter 2.2 --- Financial Literature --- p.8 / Chapter Chapter 3. --- Methodology --- p.15 / Chapter 3.1 --- Augmented Dickey Fuller Test --- p.15 / Chapter 3.2 --- Band-Pass Filter --- p.18 / Chapter Chapter 4. --- Data Description --- p.20 / Chapter Chapter 5. --- Empirical Results --- p.23 / Chapter 5.1 --- Contemporaneous Correlation --- p.24 / Chapter 5.2 --- Results after Band-Pass Filtering --- p.26 / Chapter 5.3 --- Lead-lag Relationship Analysis --- p.30 / Chapter Chapter 6. --- Conclusion --- p.35 / Appendix 1. Variable Definition --- p.38 / Appendix 2. Limitation --- p.41 / Appendix 3. Results of Chosen Samples --- p.45 / Appendix 4. Tables --- p.54 / Appendix 5. Figures --- p.109 / Bibliography --- p.187

Choy Siu Kai. / Thesis (M.Phil.)--Chinese University of Hong Kong, 2005. / Includes bibliographical references (leaves 35-37). / Abstracts in English and Chinese. / Chapter Chapter 1 --- Introduction --- p.1-2 / Chapter Chapter 2 --- Literature Review --- p.3-9 / Chapter Chapter 3 --- An Overview of Hong Kong Security Market and Data Description --- p.10-18 / Chapter Chapter 4 --- Methodology --- p.19-24 / Chapter Chapter 5 --- Futures and Mini Futures Results --- p.25-28 / Chapter Chapter 6 --- Index and Futures Contracts Results --- p.29-32 / Chapter Chapter 7 --- Conclusion --- p.33-34 / References --- p.35-37 / Appendix --- p.38-40 / Tables --- p.41-52 / Graphs --- p.53-57

by Hu Wai Kwok, Li Siyi. / Thesis (M.B.A.)--Chinese University of Hong Kong, 1997. / Includes bibliographical references (leaves 85-87). / ABSTRACT --- p.ii / TABLE OF CONTENTS --- p.iii / LIST OF ILLUSTRATIONS --- p.v / LIST OF TABLES --- p.vi / ACKNOWLEDGEMENT --- p.vii / Chapter / Chapter I. --- INTRODUCTION --- p.1 / Overview Of Fundamental Analysis --- p.1 / Valuation Approaches --- p.2 / Information Sources --- p.2 / Methodology --- p.2 / Chapter II. --- ANALYTICAL FRAMEWORK FOR COMMON STOCKS --- p.4 / Chapter III. --- ECONOMIC ANALYSIS --- p.5 / International And Domestic Economic Environment --- p.5 / Economic Forecasting --- p.6 / Chapter IV. --- INDUSTRY ANALYSIS --- p.9 / Industry Classification And Industry Life Cycle --- p.9 / The Economy And Industry Analysis --- p.10 / Porter's Five Competitive Forces --- p.11 / Industry Analysis Techniques --- p.12 / Information Sources For Industry Analysis --- p.13 / Chapter V. --- COMPANY ANALYSIS: MEASURING AND FORECASTING EARNINGS --- p.14 / Understanding The Financial Statements --- p.14 / Ratio Analysis --- p.15 / Influence of Accounting Practices --- p.17 / Capital Structure And Dividend Policy --- p.18 / Forecasting Earnings --- p.19 / Evaluation of The Management Strategy --- p.21 / Chapter VI. --- APPLIED VALUATION --- p.23 / Intrinsic Value Versus Market Price --- p.23 / Determination Of Intrinsic Value --- p.23 / Dividend Discount Models (DDM) --- p.23 / Free Cashflows To Equity Discount Models (FCFE) --- p.28 / Chapter VII. --- CASE STUDY --- p.31 / Company Background --- p.31 / Birth of Cheung Kong Infrastructure --- p.31 / The Restructuring --- p.31 / Business of CKl --- p.33 / Economic Analysis --- p.33 / China's Macroeconomic Environment --- p.34 / Regional Economic Conditions --- p.35 / Economic Forecasting --- p.37 / Industry Analysis --- p.37 / Industry Classification --- p.37 / The Economy And Industry Analysis --- p.38 / Industry Overview And Historical Performance --- p.38 / Porter's Five Forces --- p.43 / Industry Life Cycle --- p.45 / Hong Kong Construction Materials Industry --- p.46 / Company Analysis --- p.47 / CKI's Businesses --- p.47 / Company Strategy Analysis --- p.48 / Risk Factors --- p.50 / Financial And Operation Analysis --- p.51 / Forecasting And Valuation --- p.52 / Intrinsic Value vs. Market Price --- p.57 / Chapter VIII. --- SUMMARY --- p.59 / APPENDIX --- p.61 / BIBLIOGRAPHY --- p.85

This thesis researches the world coffee and tea trade, especially their flows and trends in consumption and production and trade regulations that affect these flows. This paper is divided into three chapters. The first chapter focuses on the world coffee and tea production, the economic benefits of these commodities for producing countries and the outlook for these markets. Another chapter deals with the coffee and tea market, the development of demand, supply and price is examined. This chapter is also dedicated to the concept of Fair Trade and to the forms of trading on examined markets. It is explained how the commodity exchange, tea auctions and trading on the basis of financial derivatives work. The last chapter investigates the forms of international regulations that have been requested by the global coffee and tea trade.

Yao, Wang. / Thesis (M.Phil.)--Chinese University of Hong Kong, 2010. / Includes bibliographical references (leaves 38-39). / Abstracts in English and Chinese. / Abstract --- p.i / Acknowledgements --- p.ii / Contents --- p.iii / Chapter 1 --- Introduction --- p.1 / Chapter 2 --- A Case Study of the Land Market in Hong Kong --- p.7 / Chapter 2.1 --- Background --- p.7 / Chapter 2.2 --- Institutions related to the land market --- p.7 / Chapter 2.2.1 --- Land Disposals --- p.8 / Chapter 2.2.2 --- Public Housing --- p.9 / Chapter 2.3 --- Recent Land and Housing Market History --- p.10 / Chapter 2.3.1 --- Land Supply and Land Prices --- p.11 / Chapter 3 --- A Theory of Political Economy of Land Supply --- p.16 / Chapter 3.1 --- Model Setup --- p.16 / Chapter 3.2 --- Definition of Equilibrium --- p.19 / Chapter 3.3 --- Equilibrium Characterization --- p.20 / Chapter 3.4 --- Comparative Statics --- p.28 / Chapter 4 --- Conclusion --- p.31 / Appendix --- p.33 / Reference --- p.38

This thesis explores whether scanner data can be used to inform Consumer Price Index (CPI) construction, with particular reference to the issues of substitution bias and choice of aggregation dimensions. The potential costs and benefits of using scanner data are reviewed. Existing estimates of substitution bias are found to show considerable variation. An Australian scanner data set is used to estimate substitution bias for six different aggregation methods and for fixed base and superlative indexes. Direct and chained indexes are also calculated. Estimates of substitution bias are found to be highly sensitive to both the method of aggregation used and whether direct or chained indexes were used. The ILO (2004) recommends the use of dissimilarity indexes to determine the issue of when to chain. This thesis provides the first empirical study of dissimilarity indexes in this context. The results indicate that dissimilarity indexes may not be sufficient to resolve the issue. A Constant Elasticity of Substitution (CES) index provides an approximate estimate of substitution-bias-free price change, without the need for current period expenditure weights. However, an elasticity parameter is needed. Two methods, referred to as the algebraic and econometric methods, were used to estimate the elasticity parameter. The econometric approach involved the estimation of a system of equations proposed by Diewert (2002a). This system has not been estimated previously. The results show a relatively high level of substitution at the elementary aggregate level, which supports the use a Jevons index, rather than Carli or Dutot indexes, at this level. Elasticity parameter estimates were found to vary considerably across time, and statistical testing showed that elasticity parameter estimates were significantly different across estimation methods. Aggregation is an extremely important issue in the compilation of the CPI. However, little information exists about 'appropriate' aggregation methods. Aggregation is typically recommended over 'homogenous' units. An hedonic framework is used to test for item homogeneity across four supermarket chains and across all stores within each chain. This is a novel approach. The results show that treating the same good as homogenous across stores which belong to the same chain may be recommended.

The growth of electricity markets around the world has introduced new challenges in which one of the challenges is the uncertainty that has become a structural element in this new environment. Market players have to deal with it to guarantee the appropriate power system planning and operation as well as its own economical liquidity. Under an open access environment in a deregulated power system, transmission management holds a vital role in supporting transactions between suppliers and customers. Nevertheless, a transmission network has some constraints that should be addressed in order to ensure sufficient control to maintain the security level of a power system while maximizing market efficiency. The most obvious drawback of transmission constraints is a congestion problem that becomes an obstacle of perfect competition among the market participants since it can influence spot market pricing. The system becomes congested when the supplier and customer agree to produce and consume a particular amount of electric power, but this can cause the transmission network to exceed its thermal limits. Congestion can cause the market players to exercise market power that can result in price volatility beyond the marginal costs. Thus, it is important to manage congestion efficiently in the design of a power market. One mechanism that has direct correlation with transmission management is market clearing price (MCP). Under an open access environment, energy prices throughout the network will be different and measured based on transmission constraint and network losses. When network losses are ignored and there is no congestion on the transmission lines, the power price will be the same at all nodes. This is known as uniform marginal pricing (UMP). However, as the power flow violates transmission constraints, redispatching generating units is required and this will cause the price at every node to vary. This phenomenon is defined as locational marginal pricing (LMP). Therefore, the market clearing price has a strong relationship with transmission management, which is needed to be assessed in order to obtain an efficient and transparent price but satisfying all market participants. This project investigates an alternative solution to the dispatch mechanism, and then formulates a new Locational Marginal Price scheme using optimization technique that may well control congestion as the main issue. The model will vary and be improved, to be distilled into energy price, congestion revenue, cost of losses, as well as transmission usage tariff. The objective of the project is to support developing standard market design (SMD) in managing transmission systems which promotes economic efficiency, lowers delivered energy costs, maintains power system reliability and mitigates exercising market power.

Syftet med studien har varit att undersöka om det är möjligt att tillämpa en beslutsmodell för att lösa ett problem avseende anbudsstrategi vid offentlig upphandling. När ett företag har en kund som omfattas av lagen om offentlig upphandling gäller särskilda regler vid upphandlingar. För ett företag är det viktigt att känna till dessa regler vid inlämning av anbud. Detta är dock oftast inte tillräckligt för att vinna en upphandling, eftersom det då också gäller att deras produkts jämförelsepris är lägre än konkurrenternas. En beslutsmodell, baserad på data från tidigare upphandlingar, har tagits fram för att kunna underbygga ett verktyg gällande anbudsstrategi. Beslutsmodellen är uppbyggd av diverse teorier som beslutsmatris, beslutsträd, lognormal fördelning och förväntat monetärt värde. Tillvägagångssättet har bestått av insamling av information och data via intervjuer, samt andra källor såsom litteratur, artiklar, uppsatser och upphandlingar, där metoden design science har använts. Utifrån en generell beslutsmatris och ett beslutsträd samt beräkningar har beslutsmodellen kunnat tas fram. Beslutsmodellen är i första hand avsedd för att underbygga ett verktyg för företag som är leverantör av eldrivna rullstolar men skulle även kunna appliceras i andra typer av upphandlingar. Beslutsmodellen kan ge stöd till ett verktyg som i sin tur skulle kunna användas av beslutsfattare. Beslutsfattarna får dock inte endast utgå från dess information, som är baserad på tidigare upphandlingar, utan bör också analysera konkurrenternas nutidssituation. Nyckelord: Beslutsmodell, offentlig upphandling, anbudspris, jämförelsepris, beslutsfattare, beslutsmatris, beslutsträd, lognormal fördelning, förväntat monetärt värde / The aim of the study has been to investigate if it is possible to apply a decision model when solving a problem with bidding strategies in public procurement. When a company has costumers comprehended by the laws in public procurement, there are certain rules involved. For a company it is important to be aware about these rules, when setting their bids. Though this is often not enough for a winning procurement, because of the fact that the products comparison prices need to be lower than the competitors'. A decision model, based on data from earlier procurements, has been developed to reinforce a tool with bidding strategies. The decision model is composed by various theories, like decision matrix, decision tree, lognormal distribution and expected monetary value. The procedure through the study has contained data and information acquisition via interviews and other references like literature, articles, thesis and procurements. Based on a general decision matrix and a decision tree, as with calculations, the decision model has been generated. The decision model is mainly designed to reinforce a tool for companies supplying electric wheelchairs to costumers but could also be applicable in other types of procurements. The decision model could be a support when constructing a tool, which consequently could be used by decision makers. The decision makers can however not only adopt the ideas based on earlier procurements. They also need to analyse the competitors’ situations in present time. Keywords: Decision model, public procurement, bidding prices, comparison prices, decision maker, decision matrix, decision tree, lognormal distribution, expected monetary value