<p>Diss. Stockholm : Handelshögskolan, 2007</p>

This dissertation consists of four self-contained studies concentrating on the productivity development following major technological breakthroughs. All four studies are concerned with measurement issues of productivity. Three of the papers use a comparative historical perspective and primarily focus on some of the differences and similarities in productivity growth following each technological breakthrough. A fourth paper solely focuses on the ICT revolution and the problems associated with measuring productivity in the Swedish Radio, television and communication equipment (RTC) industry. Paper 1, Technological Breakthroughs and Productivity Growth (with Magnus Henrekson), examines productivity growth following three major technological breakthroughs: the steam power revolution, electrification and the ICT revolution. The distinction between sectors producing and sectors using the new technology is emphasized. A major finding for all breakthroughs is that there is a long lag from the time of the original invention until a substantial increase in the rate of productivity growth can be observed. There is also strong evidence of rapid price decreases for steam engines, electricity, electric motors and ICT products. However, there is no persuasive direct evidence that the steam engine producing industry and electric machinery had particularly high productivity growth rates. For the ICT revolution, the highest productivity growth rates are found in ICT-producing industries. It is argued that one explanation might be that hedonic price indexes are not used for the steam engine and the electric motor. Still, it is likely that the rate of technological development has been much more rapid during the ICT revolution as compared to any of the previous breakthroughs. In paper 2, Do Hedonic Price Indexes Change History? The Case of Electrification, I investigate whether hedonic price indexing would also have large effects on measured price and productivity during electrification. The hedonic methodology is used on historical data for electric motors in Sweden in 1900–35. The results show that PPI-deflated prices for electric motors decreased by 4.8 percent per year based on hedonic price indexes. This indicates that prices decreased considerably more for electric motors compared to total manufacturing. Annual labor productivity growth in Swedish electric machinery in 1919–29 becomes 12.1 percent if the hedonic deflators are used. Thus, there is strong evidence that productivity growth in the electric motor producing industry was very high during the 1920s. In contrast to Sweden, US annual labor productivity growth was only, according to current best estimates, 4.1 percent in electric machinery compared to 5.3 percent in manufacturing in 1919–29. However, hedonic price indexes were not used to calculate US productivity. Finally, it is shown that the price decreases for electric motors in the 1920s were not on par with the price decreases for ICT-equipment in the 1990s, even if hedonic indexing is used in both cases. Paper 3, Parallel Development? Productivity Growth Following Electrification and the ICT revolution, compares labor productivity growth and the contribution to labor productivity growth in Swedish manufacturing during electrification and the ICT revolution. The paper distinguishes between technology-producing, intensive and less intensive technology-using industries during these two technological breakthroughs. The results show that labor productivity growth and the overall contribution to labor productivity growth were considerably higher in technology-producing industries during the ICT revolution compared to electrification. For example, the relative contribution to labor productivity growth in manufacturing from the technology-producing industry was 3.4 percent in 1920–30 compared to 34.4 percent in 1993–2003. On the other hand, the relative contribution to aggregate labor productivity growth was considerably higher in intensive technology-using manufacturing industries during electrification. These findings have an important policy implication, namely that it is much more important how productivity is measured for ICT products in the 1990s than for electric motors in the 1920s. Paper 4, The Swedish ICT Miracle: Myth or Reality?, investigates productivity development in Sweden in the 1990s. The results show that much of the recorded Swedish surge in labor productivity was due to the spectacular growth of the Radio, television and communication equipment (RTC) industry. However, the productivity growth of the RTC industry is very sensitive to value added price deflators. Unlike Sweden, the US uses hedonic price indexes for semiconductors and microprocessors which are important intermediate inputs in the RTC industry. Estimates based on the US intermediate input price deflators for semiconductors and microprocessors suggest that the productivity growth of the Swedish RTC industry during the 1990s can be questioned. This implies that the productivity growth of total manufacturing has also been overestimated. The results for Sweden are also interesting for other countries such as Finland, Ireland and South Korea, where ICT-producing industries have contributed substantially to labor productivity growth / Diss. Stockholm : Handelshögskolan, 2006 S. 1-21: introduction and summary, s. 23-194: 4 papers

Diss. Stockholm : Handelshögskolan, 2006 S. 5-11: introduction and summary, s. 15-99: 3 papers

The present study is an attempt to analyze the impact of changing policy regime during the liberalization era on the behaviour of 81 sample firms in Indian electronics industry in terms of factor productivities. We categorise a period of 12 years (1993-2004) as the two phases of liberalisation: - Period/ Phase 1: 1993-1998 and Period/ Phase 2: 1999-2004. The 81 sample firms are segregated into four primary sub-sectors of electronics industry based on their use pattern: communication equipments, computer hardware, consumer electronics and other electronics. The objective is to trace the growth of output in the four sub-sectors in Indian electronics industry over two phases of liberalisation and to determine the relative contributions of Input Growth (IG) and Total Factor Productivity Growth (TFPG) to Output Growth (OG). Further, the study focuses on determining the relative contributions of Technological Progress (TP) and Technical Efficiency Change (TEC) to TFPG and establishes the influence of firm specific managerial decision making and management efficiency variables on TEC and TP. The methodology follows a three-step approach in order to achieve the above objectives. The first step is to determine a potential stochastic production function using stochastic frontier production function model and measure firm-wise technical inefficiency levels. The second step is to measure the growth of TFP over two phases and to derive the components TEC and TP. The third step measures the influence of management decision variables on TEC and TP using a frontier approach model on a panel data. The contribution of labour to output was found to be higher than the contribution of capital in all four sub-sectors. However, capital contribution improved in phase 2 relative to phase 1 for computer hardware and other electronics sub-sectors. Computer hardware was the only sub-sector that experienced an improvement in returns to scale from constant returns to scale in phase 1 to increasing returns to scale in phase 2 of liberalisation. The Technological Progress (TP) and Technical Efficiency Change (TEC) that contributed to TFPG exhibited a contrasting relationship for all the four sub-sectors in the electronics industry: TEC declined when there was high TP while it improved when there was a decline in TP. This could be because Indian electronics firms generally focus on either technology imports/ develop indigenous technology to achieve TP or to assimilate the imported/ indigenous technology for better use. The lag in assimilation of imported/ developed technology could be a reason for the negative relation between TEC and TP. The communication equipment sub-sector had a balanced growth in terms of TEC and TP among the four sub-sectors. The computer hardware and the other electronics sub-sectors were worse performers in terms of TEC in period 2 relative to period 1 and so had been the electronics industry as a whole. The computer hardware sub-sector had the highest average OG in period 2 relative to period 1 among all the sub-sectors due to relatively high contribution of IG. Other electronics sub-sector had the highest average TP that compensated for the negative average TEC. On an average, percentage contribution of TP to TFPG was high for the electronics industry and its sub-sectors in period 2 relative to period 1. This is an indication that the sub-sectors of Indian electronics industry have strived and achieved steady technological progress in the period of economic liberalisation to cope with the intensifying competition internally as well as externally. The sample firms in the electronics industry were in favour of towards external acquisition of sophisticated technology, which explains the relatively high contribution of TP to the TFPG of the industry. However, this was not followed up with adequate in-house R&D in order to develop indigenous technology or to absorb imported technology as a result of which TEC for the sub-sectors and the whole industry suffered. Growth in Operating Margin (OMG) and Growth in Returns on Capital Employed (ROCEG) generate additional revenue that could be ploughed back into the firm for improvement of its existing indigenous technology or absorption of imported technology thereby leading to improvement in TE and TP. The positive influence of OMG as well as ROCEG on TEC and TP for all the sub-sectors is an indication of efficient management in these sub-sectors in utilizing assets and profits to generate earnings. However, the trend of operating margin and returns on capital employed had been declining for all the sub-sectors. Inventory management proved to be costly for TP as financial resources diverted to maintain inventory had an undesirable effect on their indigenious technology. Most of the sample firms in the electronics industry were found to have incurred R&D expenditure to derive tax incentives. As a result the resources got diverted away from other creative operational or skill improvement efforts to unproductive and wasteful R&D activities. Thus, R&D did not have the desirable influence on the components of TFPG. The present study showed that unplanned and ad hoc technology imports or even raw material imports was not conducive to the growth of both the components of TFPG. Older firms need to develop their technology or adequately import better and more sophisticated technology. This would enable older (more experienced) electronic firms to overcome the negative influence of age, reflected in our analysis. This is, however, applicable to only those segments of the electronics industry where firms preferred to serve lower end of the market as well as lower end of the technological spectrum (eg. Computer hardware and other electronics sub-sectors). Electronics industry like any other capital goods industry offers scope for vertical integration. Management of the firms in electronics industry should emphasize on vertical integration, expansion of scale of operations and should initiate R&D investments to build up R&D base, among others to improve TEC and TP. This would also help to check the decline in operating margin and returns from invested capital among the firms. Thus, improved managerial effectiveness and decision making do help in the form of generating thereby surpluses facilitating to achieve higher TP and even TEC. Regional and State governments should provide adequate policy support and appropriate industrial infrastructure to electronic firms which would in turn improve their managerial effectiveness and TFPG.

Aufbauend auf dem agrarökonomischen, dynamischen Optimierungsmodell MAgPIE, zeigen die hier vorgestellten Forschungsergebnisse, dass die Governance-Leistung einen bedeutenden Einfluss auf den technologischen Fortschritt und das Wachstum der Flächenproduktivität hat, insbesondere für in der Entwicklung begriffene Regionen wie Lateinamerika, Afrika südlich der Sahara, Südasien und Südostasien. Dies wirkt sich wiederum auf die Landnutzungsdynamik aus, einschließlich der Ausdehnung von Ackerflächen und der Entwaldung. Neben Umweltauswirkungen beeinflusst die Governance-Leistung auch Lebensmittelpreise und das Handelsverhalten, und damit die Existenzgrundlagen vieler Menschen. Darüber hinaus legt die Dissertation nahe, dass sich das globale Produktivitätswachstum trotz unterschiedlicher sozioökonomischer Bedingungen wahrscheinlich fortsetzen wird. Die Größenordnung der Wachstumsrate unter den jeweiligen Bedingungen variiert jedoch, je nach verwendeten Produktivitätsindizes. Unterschiede in den sozioökonomischen Gegebenheiten führen zu einer Zunahme des Produktivitätswachstums im Ackerbau, was tiefgreifende Auswirkungen auf die Anbaufläche und die Lebensmittelpreise hat. Nicht zuletzt zeigen die Ergebnisse der Dissertation, dass die Liberalisierung des Agrarhandels negative Auswirkungen des Klimawandels auf das landwirtschaftliche Angebot abfedern kann, den Anstieg der Lebensmittelpreise im Zuge von erheblichen klimabedingten Ertragseinbußen begrenzen und die Ausdehnung der Anbauflächen im globalen Maßstab verringern kann. In bestimmten Regionen kann es aufgrund von veränderten Handelsmustern zu einer Ausdehnung der Anbauflächen kommen. In Zusammenschau der Ergebnisse aus den Einzelstudien vertieft die vorliegende Dissertation das Verständnis für potenzielle Zielkonflikte und Synergien von wirtschaftspolitischen Optionen, die darauf abzielen, die Produktionskapazitäten im landwirtschaftlichen Sektor der steigenden Nachfrage entsprechend auszubauen. / Building upon an agro-economic dynamic optimization model known as MAgPIE, this dissertation fseeks to enhance representation of the economic factors in the model. The research findings reveal that governance performance has a significant impact on technological progress and land productivity growth, especially for developing regions, such as Latin America, Sub-Saharan Africa, South Asia, and Southeast Asia. This, in turn, exerts impacts on land dynamics, including cropland expansion and deforestation. Aside from environmental impacts, governance performance affects livelihoods, as it influences food prices and trade patterns. Moreover, the dissertation suggests that global productivity growth is likely to continue, despite differences in possible socioeconomic conditions. However, the magnitude of the growth rate under each set of conditions will vary, according to different productivity indices. Differences in socioeconomic conditions lead to a spread in productivity growth in the crop sector, which will have profound implications for cropland expansion and food prices. Last but not least, the dissertation argues that liberalizing agricultural trade can buffer negative impacts from climate change on agricultural supply, limit increasing food prices in a scenario of high-end climate impacts on crop yields, and reduce cropland expansion on the global scale, though it may induce cropland expansion in certain regions due to changes in trade patterns. Synthesizing the findings from the individuals studies of which it is comprised, the dissertation is intended to enhance understanding of the trade-offs and synergies of economic options for agricultural outputs to keep pace with increasing demand and, thereby, contribute to the core discussion among agricultural economists on food production and its economic and environmental impacts.

This thesis consists of four self-contained essays. The common theme of the essays is the behavior of multi-plant firms. An underlying idea in all four of them is that firms possess intangible assets such as management skills and organizational expertise, technological knowledge, marketing know-how and better access to finance capital or natural resources. These assets are typically specific to the respective firm. Due to market imperfections and failures, firms tend to internalize the advantages of firm-specific assets and exploit them themselves rather than sell or lease them to other firms. For instance, intangible assets are often joint inputs in the sense that knowledge developed by one unit can be transferred to another unit within the same firm at a low cost and without diminishing the amount of knowledge available to the first unit. Furthermore, the assets are typically only partly appropriable by their owner, and the market transactions of the assets are hampered due to information asymmetries between a potential buyer and seller. The literature on multinational firms emphasizes the role of intangible firm-specific assets in creating ownership advantages that, together with location and internalization advantages, explain the pattern of foreign direct investments. The essays in this thesis are based on the view that the ownership advantages created by firm-specific assets are the "raison d'etre" of large multi-plant firms. The existence of such assets is assumed to create multi-plant economies of scale and give incentives to make better use of capacity or overheads to gain advantage in size, economies of interdependent activities, integration and/or diversification. Rather than studying the international aspects of firms with intangible assets, the first three essays empirically explore different aspects of multi-plant firm behavior in domestic markets. This analysis has been made possible by the access to unique plant-level data on the thirty largest multinational manufacturing corporations in Sweden. The sample corporations play an important role in the Swedish economy. For instance, the thirty corporations account for about 70 percent of aggregate industrial R&amp;D in 1999. This should be compared with their share of total manufacturing employment, which was about 30 percent during the period of study. The first essay examines the sources of productivity growth within multi-plant firms and particularly emphasizes the role of external restructuring and ownership changes in explaining why multi-plant firms may sustain higher productivity growth as compared to single-plant firms. The second and the third essay explore the idea that large multi-plant corporations exploit their ownership advantages when acquiring partial- and full-firm assets. The second essay analyzes whether technological intangible assets may explain transfers of productive capacity from acquiring corporations to their target. The third essay explores the idea that multi-plant corporations search for targets matching their firm-specific organizational capabilities when acquiring corporate assets. Uncertainty about the matching outcome explains why some acquisitions end in divestitures. However, the likelihood of a "good" match is expected to increase in the buyer's organizational capabilities. The fourth essay, coauthored with Karolina Ekholm, extends the analysis to encompass the international aspects of multinational firms. In this essay, we develop a theoretical model analyzing the localization decisions of multi-plant firms beyond the national borders. More specifically, we develop a two-country model where firms can choose to separate their innovative activities generating an intangible asset from the production of the final good. In our model, there are two agglomeration forces: knowledge spillovers associated with R&amp;D and backward and forward linkages associated with high-tech production. We analyze how the interplay of these forces affects the localization decisions of the firms. / Diss. Stockholm : Handelshögsk., 2003

La mondialisation financière des dernières décennies témoigne du phénomène du déséquilibre mondial dans lequel les comptes déficitaires actuels de certaines grandes économies avancées sont continuellement financés par certains pays en développement avec des taux de croissance élevés et des stocks de capitaux rares. Sur le plan théorique, le modèle de croissance néoclassique implique qu’une économie avec une pénurie de capitaux aurait un produit marginal élevé de capital et un taux d’intérêt élevé d’autarcie. Par conséquent, lors de l’intégration avec la capitale mobile gratuite, ce pays éprouverait les entrées nettes de capitaux nets afin que le taux d’intérêt domestique soit égal au reste du taux mondial (Lucas 1990). De plus, une économie qui se développe plus rapidement que le reste du monde aurait également une demande d’investissement plus élevée et devrait connaître les entrées de capitaux totaux nets (Gourinchas and Jeanne 2013). Les déséquilibres mondiaux sont le résultat de l’hétérogénéité des tendances de l’épargne et des investissements dans tous les pays. En effet, un pays connaît un apport de capitaux si son économie est inférieure à son investissement : ce pays emprunte au reste du monde si sa sauvegarde est supérieure à son investissement. La thèse emploierait la croissance de la productivité pour afficher les sources de lumière sur cette hétérogénéité entre les pays. [...] / The financial globalization for the past decades witnesses the global imbalance phenomenon on which the deficit current accounts by some large advanced economics are continuously financed by some developing economies with the high output growth rates and the scarce capital stocks. On the theoretical ground, the Neo-Classical growth model implies that one economy with scarcity of capital would have a high marginal product of capital and a high autarky interest rate therefore, at the integration with the free mobile capital, that country would experience the net total capital inflows so that the domestic interest rate equals that to the rest of world’s rate (Lucas 1990). Furthermore, one economy growing faster than the rest of the world would also have a higher investment demand and should experience the inflows of net total capitals (Gourinchas and Jeanne 2015). The global imbalances are the result of the heterogeneity in the patterns of savings and investments across countries. Indeed, one country experiences an inflow of capital if its saving is less that its investment: that country borrows from the rest of the world to finance the excess investment demand. Similarly, one country would lend to the rest of the world if its saving is higher than its investment. The thesis would employ the productivity growth to shed the refresh lights on this heterogeneity across countries. [...]

Cette thèse étudie comment le taux de change effectif réel (TCER) et ses mesures associées (volatilité du TCER et désalignement du TCER) affectent la croissance de la productivité totale des facteurs (CPTF). Elle analyse également les canaux par lesquels le TCER et ses mesures associées agissent sur la productivité totale des facteurs (PTF). La première partie étudie comment le TCER lui-Même, d'une part, et la volatilité du TCER, d'autre part, influencent la productivité. Une analyse du lien entre le niveau du TCER et la PTF dans le chapitre 1 indique qu'une appréciation de taux de change cause une augmentation de la PTF. Mais cet impact est également non- inéaire: en-Dessous du seuil, le TCER influence négativement la productivité tandis qu'au-Dessus du seuil il agit positivement. Les résultats du chapitre 2 illustrent que la volatilité du TCER affecte négativement la CPTF. Nous avons également constaté que la volatilité du TCER agit sur PTF selon le niveau du développement financier. Pour les pays modérément financièrement développés, la volatilité du TCER réagit négativement sur la productivité et n'a aucun effet sur la productivité pour les niveaux très bas et très élevés du développement financier. La deuxième partie examine les canaux par lesquels le TCER et ses mesures associées influencent la productivité. Les résultats du chapitre 3 illustrent que la volatilité du TCER a un impact négatif élevé sur l'investissement. Ces résultats sont robustes dans les pays à faible revenu et les pays à revenu moyens, et en employant une mesure alternative de volatilité du TCER. Le chapitre 4 montre que le désalignement du taux de change réel et la volatilité du taux de change réel affectent négativement les exportations. Il démontre également que la volatilité du taux de change réel est plus nocive aux exportations que le désalignement. Ces résultats sont corroborés par des résultats sur des sous-Échantillons de pays à bas revenu et à revenu moyen. / This dissertation investigates how the real effective exchange rate (REER) and its associated asurements (REER volatility and REER misalignment) affect total factor productivity growth (TFPG). It also analyzes the channels through which the REER and its associated measurements act on total factor productivity (TFP). The first part studies how the REER itself, on the one hand, and the REER volatility, on the other hand, influence productivity. An analysis of the link between the level of REER and TFP in chapter 1 reveals that an exchange rate appreciation causes an increase of TFP. But this impact is also nonlinear: below the threshold, real exchange rate influences negatively productivity while above the threshold it acts positively. The results of chapter 2 illustrate that REER volatility affects negatively TFPG. We also found that REER volatility acts on TFP according to the level of financial development. For moderately financially developed countries, REER volatility reacts negatively on productivity and has no effect on productivity for very low and very high levels of financial development. The second part examines the channels through which the REER and its associated measurements influence productivity. The results of chapter 3 illustrate that the exchange rate volatility has a strong negative impact on investment. This outcome is robust in low income and middle income countries, and by using an alternative measurement of exchange rate volatility. Chapter 4 show that both real exchange rate misalignment and real exchange rate volatility affect negatively exports. It also demonstrates that real exchange rate volatility is more harmful to exports than misalignment. These outcomes are corroborated by estimations on subsamples of Low- ncome and Middle-Income countries

科学研究費補助金 研究種目:基盤研究(A)(1) 課題番号:07303015 研究代表者:山田 鋭夫 研究期間:1995-1997年度