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Stochastic Optimization of Asset Management Project Portfolios: A Risk-Informed Approach / Stokastisk optimering av projektportföljer för tillgångsförvaltning: en riskinformerad metodPersson, Sebastian, Hansson, Niklas January 2023 (has links)
Asset management within the nuclear industry has become an increasingly relevant topic as safety requirements have tightened and energy security has become more important. Asset management ensures performance and reliability in a nuclear facility by balancing costs, opportunities, and risks to get the most out of assets. Asset management processes can often be modeled as capital budgeting problems, where investments are evaluated based on costs and benefits, which establishes a link to mathematical optimization. This study addresses asset management at the Swedish nuclear power plant, Forsmark, and aims to implement an optimization model to improve the project selection related to maintenance and replacement of assets at the plant. First, the most relevant areas of nuclear asset management are identified through a comprehensive literature review. The most relevant method, identified as a mix between risk-informed asset management and capital budgeting, is then implemented to fit the prerequisites at Forsmark. Several models of different complexity are developed and the resulting stochastic model incorporates uncertainty of input variables by assuming underlying distributions. Finally, a methodology to incorporate a quantitative risk measure in the optimization is suggested through the use of conditional value at risk. Results are generated based on simulated data and illustrate the potential of implementing the method at Forsmark. / Tillgångsförvaltning inom kärnkraftsindustrin har blivit alltmer aktuellt i takt med att säkerhetskraven har skärpts och tillförlitlighet i energiproduktionen blivit viktigare. Effektiv tillgångshantering säkerställer prestanda och reliabilitet i ett kärnkraftverk genom att hitta en balans mellan kostnader, möjligheter och risker för att maximera nyttan av tillgångar. Projekturval i tillgångsförvaltningen kan ofta modelleras som ett kapitalbudgeteringsproblem, där investeringar utvärderas utifrån kostnader och uppsida, vilket påvisar en koppling till matematisk optimering. Denna studie behandlar tillgångshantering vid det svenska kärnkraftverket Forsmark och syftar till att implementera en optimeringsmodell för att förbättra projekturvalet relaterat till underhåll av tillgångar vid anläggningen. Det första steget i studien bearbetar den befintliga litteraturen inom området för att få en uppfattning av relevanta metoder. Den mest relevanta metoden identifierades som en mix mellan riskinformerad tillgångsförvaltning och kapitalbudgetering. En metod baserad på de generella principerna för dessa områden utvecklades och anpassades för de specifika förutsättningarna på Forsmark. Flera modeller av olika komplexitet utvecklades och den slutgiltiga stokastiska modellen inkorporerar osäkerhet i de mest relevanta ingångsvariablerna genom att anta sannolikhetsfördelningar. Slutligen föreslås en metod för att implementera ett kvantitativt riskmått i optimeringen genom att använda CVaR. Resultaten genereras utifrån simulerade data och illustrerar potentialen i att implementera metoden på Forsmark.
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Implementing Strategy through PPM in an Internal Development DepartmentMillard, Simon January 2023 (has links)
The focus of strategy research has long revolved around strategy formulation rather thanstrategy implementation, despite the evidence indicating that intended strategies are rarelyachieved. Project portfolio management, PPM, assumes a crucial role in enabling strategyimplementation and can be regarded as a representation of the organization's actual pursuedstrategy. Existing research on PPM has predominantly centered around portfolios in the contextof new product development, NPD, and research and development, R&D. However, there hasbeen relatively less exploration of PPM within internal development departments, warrantingfurther investigation. To contribute to the understanding on strategy implementation throughPPM and its conditional factors, this qualitative case study expands the existing research bystudying the PPM process within an internal development department. The study wasconducted at the Business Improvement department, which oversees improvement projects forthe service branch of EnergyComp, a company specializing in the development of complexenergy solutions. Using an abductive research approach, a literature review was conducted inparallel with data collection and analysis. The empirical data was mainly collected throughsemi-structured interviews at the company, but also through meetings and companydocumentation. The results of the study show that PPM actions connected to projects, portfolio and resourceallocation are undertaken to effectively implement the organization's strategy within theinternal development department. Common to all areas is the importance of accurate andavailable information that effects the decisions connected to strategy implementation. On aproject level, Insufficient information poses challenges in accurately assessing project success,resulting in measurements that fail to cover all strategic objectives. In the context of theportfolio, the absence of project information and uncertainties can lead to a misalignmentbetween the actual prioritization criteria employed in the selection process and the strategicobjectives of the organization. Additionally, it may contribute to a less detailed and formalstrategic plan. Furthermore, the cost associated with adjusting the portfolio is directly linked tothe effort and expenses involved in obtaining project information. Regarding resources,insufficient information on supply and demand creates challenges in considering projectdependencies and synergies during the evaluation of project groups. Moreover, limitedtransparency across functional boundaries within the organization leads to a system wheredecision rules cannot be established at the portfolio level. Instead, it encourages bottom-uppriority decisions. Furthermore, a biased assessment by stakeholders in the functionaldepartments may result in an inadequate screening process, leading to an increased workloadin the portfolio structuring process. Finally, the large variation in project types, coupled withdiverse impact targets spanning individual and multiple functions, makes it difficult to createrelevant project categories for budgeting and portfolio structuring.
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