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This master thesis is focused on the analysis of the impact from trends of different demographic aspects on the current pension system in the Czech republic and Norway. The old age pension system including its reforms is described and compared within both countries. Furthermore it is investigated how the citizens perceive the development of particular demographic aspects, what they think about the status and reforms regarding the pension system, and how they provide themselves for retirement. In addition to the comparison between the Czech and Norwegian pension systems the thesis also provides suggestions for improvement within demographic aspects, the settings of the pension system, the government and the society itself.

Der neue Webauftritt der SLUB ist seit dem 1. Februar 2007 für die Öffentlichkeit online präsent.

政府機關委外執行民意調查已成為民主國家治理的趨勢之一；但民意調查的高度專業性和特殊性質，導致過程中有許多「看不見的黑手」介入的機會，故如何監督、控制民調的品質以確保信效度遂成為一項重要課題。全國各級政府機關中，以台北市在委外執行民調業務上的規定最為公開、完備，不僅訂有專法，更獨步全國成立「民意調查諮詢委員會」，協助各局處在委外執行民調過程中把關調查品質、解決問題。在這種「一個委託人（委託局處）、兩個代理人（執行廠商和民調諮詢委員）」的架構之下，本研究從交易成本理論出發，探討台北市的委託局處在這套委外與審查機制下必須付出的交易成本類型、背後的影響因素、與調查品質之間的關係。 本研究深度訪談5位民調諮詢委員、5個委託局處、研考會和4家執行民調的廠商共17人次，輔以次級資料分析，發現各局處在委外執行民調過程中的作法、程序和重視程度皆不一，付出的交易成本類型眾多，其中的「事前審查成本」、「搜尋廠商成本」、「事後審查成本」、「控制成本」在邏輯關係上較能對應後續之民調品質，其多寡深受「委託局處的重視程度」、「廠商的執行能力」影響。此外，為提昇調查品質，委託局處若付出較多事前成本（包括：事前審查成本和搜尋廠商成本）後能先行把關委託局處的需求與調查規格，且規模比起事後成本（包括控制成本、事後審查成本）來說較為減少許多，對調查品質將有正面影響；若未付出事前審查成本，則需於決標後耗費更多時間、精力與資源才有辦法確保調查品質。 然而，研究結果卻顯示民調諮詢委員會不見得能達到提昇調查品質的目的，仍有執行能力不佳、圖謀不軌的廠商無法達到審查委員的要求而遭到解約。因此，本研究歸納「民調諮詢委員會」兩項主要的缺失，包括未能事前把關調查規格與執行預算之間的合理性，無法克服「逆向選擇」執行廠商的問題；加上定位不明，難以保證可以完全發揮把關之功能與職責，委託局處未必完全依照委員的意見來要求廠商修正，以致淪為無人負責的窘境。 最後，本研究提出主要的政策建議，包括研考會的角色應更加積極、強化，確立民調諮詢委員會的定位，嚴肅思考業界委員協助審查的必要性，民調諮詢委員協助審查調查案的預算編列和招標文件；委託局處需掌握整個流程和民調諮詢委員的功能，顧及調查規格和預算的合理性並不以預算為唯一考量，與民調諮詢委員、執行廠商和研考會保持密切關係。

This thesis approaches the theoretical concepts of public opinion, its history and origins of public opinion research in the Czechoslovak Republic and abroad. It describes the circumstances of the creation, operation and termination of the Czechoslovak Institute for Public Opinion Research, which was established under the leadership of Josef Kopta and came under the I. Department of the Ministry of Information. More particularly provides a detailed view of The Veřejné mínění Journal, which was published between 1946 and 1948 and the publisher was the institute. Among the personalities associated with the institute and the magazine belonged Čeněk Adamec, Bohuš Pospíšil and Milan A. Tesař. The journal represented a Europe-wide unique. No other institution published a similar format of the journal, which conceived as the major topic of public opinion. It was a professional and popularization journal, which was addressed to experts and the general public. Individual subsections describe the specific content of the journal, which, inter alia, consist of professional articles of various kinds, reports on domestic and foreign researches, comments from readers and other sections. Special attention is given to information related to the field of media.

我國行政院在1982年即訂定《行政院所屬各機關民意調查作業要點》，透過社會科學研究方法的運用，瞭解相關人員對政府施政之意見，以作為政策研擬、評估及提升服務品質與機關內部管理等之參考。隨著1987年宣布解嚴，以及後續政黨政治、公職選舉、媒體發展等等因素，使得民意調查的應用更為廣泛，並且成為台灣民主政治發展歷程中相當重要的一環。同一時期，Sidney Blumenthal於1980年出版《永無止盡選戰》(The Permanent Campaign)一書，指出民選首長當選之後，即不斷為連任作準備，為了達到此一目的，不僅過去的輔選團隊會隨著進入到白宮擔任政治顧問的角色，並且選戰思維也會影響著民選首長的決策作為，讓選戰模式變成是一種治理方式，當中最明顯的特點就是民意調查的執行與應用。 台灣從解嚴之後，選舉次數亦十分地頻繁，從地方到中央，從民意代表到行政首長，儼然已經形成一個相當完整的職涯歷程。為探求我國民選首長就任之後，是否會藉由民意調查機制協助他們解決問題並進行相關的決策，本研究透過次級資料分析法、深度訪談法、民意調查法，針對我們地方政府的民意調查執行及應用情形進行調查。研究發現我國地方政府在民意調查的執行部分受到行政程序及財政狀況之影響，因此不若選舉時期來的有彈性。其次，在民意調查機制的應用部份，受訪者表示對於政策環境的釐清相當具有幫助，可以協助他們決定政策方案的採行。最後，為了瞭解「從眾效應」策略性民調結果的公佈是否會影響到一般民眾既有的認知，本研究透過兩階段民意調查的實驗，分別針對雲林縣、台中市的民眾進行電話民意調查，依據差異分析顯示，無法證實民意調查結果的公佈的確對於民眾既有的認知會造成改變。 / In the field of public opinion polls initiated in the 1930s, seeking collective preferences of citizens and customers for the government and the business sector by means of mail, telephone, or face-to-face interviews has brought about a significant impact on human political and business life in the 20th century. In the 1980, Sidney Blumenthal published the book "The Permanent Campaign". In this book, Blumenthal explained how the changes in American politics from old-style patronage and party organization to that based on the modern technology of computer driven polling created a fundamentally new system. The concept of a permanent campaign describes the focus which recent presidents have given to electoral concerns during their tenures in office, with the distinction between the time they have spent governing and the time they have spent campaigning having become blurred and political consultants had replaced the party bosses and brought with them a new model by which campaigning became the forms of governing. Is campaigning becoming the forms of governing in Taiwan? To answer this questions, this dissertation is beginning with the theory discussion of the perspective of the “permanent campaign” and the “democratic governance”. Then, with the help of the method of interview and secondary data analysis, author discuss the application and limitation of the public opinion poll using in the governance of the local government. Public opinion poll can help the elected leader to find out the problems but it is limited by financial condition of the government itself. The author also designed a two-stage public opinion poll and divided the respondents into experimental group and contrast group. The author hypothesizes that respondents will change their choices because of the impact of “Conformity” and used an evidence-based analysis to testify the hypothesis. Finally, the author gives his conclusion and suggestion.