This thesis investigates the difficulty in making accurate forecasts on opportunistic commercial real estate investments. The purpose is to quantify the differences between unlevered cash flows from underwriting estimates and actual outcomes, analyse them and arrive at conclusions about the difficulty in producing forecasts on opportunistic investments. The data used in this thesis comes from two opportunistic real estate portfolios previously owned by the private equity firm Niam. Both portfolios comprised Swedish office properties. The results from analysing Niam’s investments shows that operating cash flows on individual properties are most difficult to forecast since the strategy for the assets constantly needs to be updated in order to adjust for current events like for example change in demand of office properties. This can have great impact on the profit allocation between property cash flows and exit cash flows in comparison to underwriting. Furthermore the results show of an increased need of diversification for opportunistic investments, since individual investments have high volatility. Also, analysing investments on unlevered level has limitations. On an unlevered level an investment can have actual outcomes worse than in the underwriting, but when adding effects from financial leverage and currency movements the same asset can outperform the underwriting.

Värdet av det svenska fastighetsbeståndet utgör två tredjedelar av den svenska nationalförmögenheten och det kommersiella fastighetsbeståndet kan värderas till cirka 3 200 miljarder kronor. En av de viktigaste yrkesrollerna för en fungerande kommersiell fastighetsmarknad är i sin tur fastighetsförvaltaren. Detta medförde att Aff – Forum för förvaltning och service under slutet av 2010 införde en auktorisation för fastighetsförvaltare.   Det huvudsakliga syftet med uppsatsen är att undersöka var auktorisationen befinner sig i dagsläget samt hur framtiden för auktorisationen ser ut och vilka åtgärder som Aff behöver göra. Vidare syftar uppsatsen till att undersöka efterfrågan och behovet av auktorisationen hos olika aktörer. Syftet är även att klargöra hur Affs auktorisation är uppbyggd samt att undersöka om utformningen är den bästa möjliga. För att undersöka detta har författarna intervjuat elva företag inom branschen samt Professor Stellan Lundström och doktorand Sigrid Katzler från KTH. De intervjuade företagen bedriver sin verksamhet inom olika typer av fastighetsslag. För att undersöka den långsiktiga efterfrågan och behovet av auktorisationen har flera generella drivkrafter som oftast finns vid införandet av en auktorisation studerats. Dessa kan till exempel bestå av att skapa en konkurrensfördel, höja kompetensen eller höja inträdesbarriärerna.   Den empiriska studien visade på att de intervjuade aktörernas insikt i auktorisationen var att beteckna som relativt dålig. Trots detta hade tre av de intervjuade företagen auktoriserade förvaltare inom bolaget. Behovet av en auktorisation rådde de delade meningar om. Tre företag ansåg att det inte fanns ett behov, ett flertal företag uttryckte att auktorisationen kunde medföra nytta i olika hänseenden. De senare gick dock inte så långt som att kalla det ett behov. Inget företag ansåg att behovet för en auktorisering var större inom något specifikt fastighetsslag. Däremot såg företagen en skillnad i vilken konkurrensfördel auktorisationen skulle innebära för ägande bolag och konsultbolag. Konkurrensfördelen att kunna marknadsföra auktorisationen mot kund ansågs vara betydligt större för konsultbolagen. De flesta av de intervjuade företagen ansåg att auktorisationen kan fungera som ett verktyg för kompetensutveckling. Auktorisationen sågs även som ett medel för att skapa en enhetlig definition av fastighetsförvaltare. Slutligen tyckte alla företag samt Katzler och Lundström att utformningen var relevant, dock framhävde vissa att den skulle kunna delas upp i fler steg.   Slutsatsen från studien är att kännedomen är så låg att Aff har ett direkt behov av att marknadsföra organisationen samt auktorisationen. Detta skulle också bidra till att Aff uppfattas som mer legitima. Utifrån studien ter det sig som att de ägande bolagens kunder, till skillnad från konsultbolagens, inte kommer efterfråga en auktorisation. Det krävs dock fortsatt forskning för att bekräfta detta. / The Swedish property stock constitutes two-thirds of the Swedish national wealth and the value of the commercial real estate stock can be estimated to 3 200 billion SEK. One of the most important professions to maintain an efficient commercial real estate market is the real estate manager. This caused Aff – “Forum för förvaltning och service” to introduce a professional certification for real estate managers by the end of 2010.   The main purpose of this thesis is to analyse where the certification is on the market and how the future will look for the certification. Furthermore, the purpose is to establish the demand and need among different market actors. The purpose of the thesis is also to clarify the structure of the certification and examine the current format. To analyse this, the authors have conducted interviews with eleven companies operating in the real estate market. Professor Stellan Lundström and doctoral student Sigrid Katzler from KTH have also participated in interviews. Several different drivers have been studied in order to analyse the long-term demand and need for a professional certification for real estate managers. These drivers can for example be to create a competitive advantage, raise the competence level or to raise the entry barriers for the profession.   The empirical study revealed that the interviewed companies had little knowledge of the certification. Although the knowledge in general was modest, there were three of the interviewed companies that had certified real estate managers. There were different opinions concerning the need for a certification. Three of the companies explicitly claimed that they did not see any need, several of the companies expressed that the certification could bring advantages. The companies expressed a difference in the competitive advantage the certification could bring for companies that own real estate and for service firms. The competitive advantage to market the certification towards the customer was believed to be much greater for the service firms. Most of the companies thought that the certification could be used as a mean to increase competencies for the real estate managers. The certification was also thought of as a mean to create a unanimous definition of the real estate manager. Finally, all of the companies as well as Katzler and Lundström considered the disposition to be relevant although some of them expressed that it could be divided into different levels.   The conclusion is that the general knowledge is rather modest and that Aff have an urgent need to market the organisation and the certification. This would also contribute to Aff’s legitimacy. The study indicates that the customers of the companies that own real estate are not going to demand a certification as much as those of the service firms. However, further study is needed to confirm this.

In this study you as a reader are going to get an understanding how Swedish commercial real estate companies met the problems during the Corona pandemic. The consequences that the pandemic caused and how companies acted during a recession. The study was made with a qualitative method with an abductive approach. In this study personnel in leading positions from six different commercial real estate companies were interviewed.  There are lot of theories about what kind of impact the pandemic will cause in the real estate industry. Will the result be empty premises with lot of vacancies, loss of rental income and how will the predictions look like in the future. Will the demand for office properties decrease when people realizing the comfort of working from home?  The study showed, that among the interviewed real estate companies most of them did apply for the state rent subsidy. The loss of rental income during the period has not increased more than a few percent. However, the insight of the importance of frequent customer dialogues and to work proactively has improved during the recession. Some future actions involves strategies to invest in properties in different segments and in various places. Overall, all of the interviewed companies predicts a transformation in the real estate industry but to what, is still a question.

Thesis (S.M.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Program in Real Estate Development in Conjunction with the Center for Real Estate, 2009. / This electronic version was submitted by the student author. The certified thesis is available in the Institute Archives and Special Collections. / Cataloged from student submitted PDF version of thesis. / Includes bibliographical references (p. 121). / The commercial real estate industry is currently in a state of turmoil, as access to capital markets is as constrained as consumer demand. Today many real estate development firms find themselves in difficult positions, with plummeting net operating income and upwardly mobile capitalization rates. Tail events - market events that were believed, based on statistics, to be rare occurrences - seem to be occurring with more and more regularity. With increasing uncertainty and market volatility, the question must be asked: how well can real estate developers predict returns? The purpose of this thesis is threefold: First, to determine whether real estate developers are accurately projecting real estate development returns; second, to determine where input assumption estimation errors are made in the ex ante proforma; and third, we undertake an analysis and application of Monte Carlo Simulation to ascertain whether, by providing practitioners another layer of transaction information, simulation is additive to the development return forecasting process. Through the careful analysis of both ex ante and ex post proformas of real estate development projects, this thesis is one of the first to show how well developers predict the outcomes of their projects. Our findings are rather surprising. We determine that ex ante and ex post real estate returns vary dramatically. On average expected development returns are shown to be 23.2%, while realized returns are only 9.4%. To understand this discrepancy we analyze each project proforma to identify where, during the valuation and development processes, developers made mistakes. / (cont.) Our findings suggest that developers are overly optimistic, especially when estimating hard costs, soft cost, and cashflow timing. The thesis results are consistent with the findings of a study by Dr. James Shilling, who analyzed the discrepancy between ex ante and ex post proforma returns for stabilized institutional properties. Shilling deduced that institutional investors are also misjudging returns, overestimating by an average of nearly 650 basis points. We also seek to augment and improve the valuation process employed by developers by applying Monte Carlo Simulation to discounted cashflow analysis. Applying Monte Carlo Simulation to the ex ante proforma of a real development transaction, we assess whether discounted cashflow analysis coupled with simulation provides an ex ante return that more closely approximates the realized ex post return. Again, our results are surprising. Among our findings, we learn that the simulation preparation process better informs a developer of sensitivities in input assumption variables for the transaction. However, industry data is not comprehensive, transparent, or available for a sufficiently long period of time to apply Monte Carlo Simulation. Despite the additional information provided by simulation, there remains the risk that a simulation proforma using incomplete data will yield inaccurate results. Due to the limited sample size used in our study we acknowledge that our results must be interpreted with some caution. However, we are hopeful that this initial effort to better understand and forecast development returns will encourage further study in this important area. / by Jason J. Foster and Bryan D. Lee. / S.M.

Thesis: M.C.P., Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Department of Urban Studies and Planning, 2016. / Thesis: S.M. in Real Estate Development, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Program in Real Estate Development in conjunction with the Center for Real Estate, 2014. / Cataloged from PDF version of thesis. / Includes bibliographical references (pages 65-71). / Despite the rising representation of women in management, female managers continue to be devalued compared to male managers, presenting a challenge for gender inequality in organizations. This study helps address a significant gap in the literature by investigating if the devaluation of female managers can be explained by their lower effectiveness in motivating worker performance. We investigate this question by using a methodological framework that combines unique personnel records, ethnographic and field-experimental data in the context of a large Indian garment factory where female supervisors are devalued and paid 15% less than their male counterparts to manage a female workforce. First, we demonstrate that the devaluation of female supervisors cannot be explained by their lower managerial effectiveness. By exploiting within-worker changes in supervisor gender in the personnel data, we find that female supervisors elicit 5% higher worker performance than male supervisors. Second, we ethnographically and experimentally show that female supervisors outperform their male counterparts by adopting a "non-authoritative managerial style," and further suggest that this style could lead to devaluation by upper management. Combined, these results rule out managerial substance as an explanation for the devaluation of female managers, pointing instead to managerial style as a prime determinant of gender inequality in the workplace. / by Ranjitha Shivaram. / M.C.P. / S.M. in Real Estate Development

Thesis: M.C.P., Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Department of Urban Studies and Planning, February, 2021 / Thesis: S.M. in Real Estate Development, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Program in Real Estate Development in conjunction with the Center for Real Estate, February, 2021 / Cataloged from the official PDF of thesis. / Includes bibliographical references (pages 72-76). / This study responds to the accelerating application of technologies in the building environment and lack of academic research exploring how these technologies are developed over time. "Built environment technologies" refers to technologies that impact the built environment, including architecture, construction, urban planning, and real estate. This study employs a "technology awareness metric" system to quantitatively trace and analyze the "invention, innovation, and diffusion" process of built environment technologies. The technology awareness metric system contains three parts: 1) research and development awareness, defined by published academic papers and granted patents; 2) capital market awareness, signaled by the number of companies established and the amount of historical funding; and 3) general public awareness, measured by Twitter activities and Google Search traffic. Using Engle-Granger two-step cointegration test method, this study compares the awareness time-series of 208 built environment technologies in pairs. The results show that different awareness measures coexist and cointegrate, suggesting that invention, innovation, and diffusion are not necessarily successive. More specifically, papers and patents tend to cointegrate, as do companies and funding; Twitter activities tend to cointegrate with companies, funding, papers, and patents. Furthermore, general public awareness demonstrates the highest uniformity in time-series patterns, followed by capital market awareness, and research and development awareness. / by Yuehan Wang. / M.C.P. / S.M. in Real Estate Development / M.C.P. Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Department of Urban Studies and Planning / S.M.inRealEstateDevelopment Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Program in Real Estate Development in conjunction with the Center for Real Estate

A research Report submitted to the Faculty of Engineering and the Built Environment, University of the Witwatersrand, in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Science in Property Development and Management, September 2018 / Corporate real estate is required by firms to operate business and this can either be owned or leased. Either option requires substantial amounts of money. Despite this fact most studies conducted have focussed on tangible corporate assets in general and not corporate real estate in particular, the reason put forward being that this asset type has diverse intangible aspects which makes the own or lease equation a complex one. South Africa is the second largest economy on the continent and has a real estate market rivalling that of European countries by size; these facts are reason enough to support investigating the real estate market in detail. Gauteng Province accounts for 34.4% of the country’s GDP and 23% of this is from the industrial sector. This study, which is based on a 2011 UK study by Barkham and Park, sought to establish whether non-financial factors play a key role in the decision to own or lease industrial real estate in Gauteng Province. The study used an empirical approach using Thematic Network analysis to explore the non-financial determinants of owning or leasing industrial real estate from data obtained from 4 firms. Findings reveal that both financial and non-financial determinants are considered in the LVB decision for industrial CRE in Gauteng. Ranking of these factors showed that 3 of the four respondents ranked the non-financial ones first followed by some financial ones. It is suggested that further research be conducted to cover a larger population i.e. industrial firms in the major cities with a large industrial presence country wide. Additionally one which includes different firm sizes and a mixed method for data collection and analysis. / XL2019

Fastighetsbranschen har länge varit en konservativ bransch med låg benägenhet till förändring. Grunden till detta är branschens stabila affärskoncept, att hyra ut kvadratmeter. Fastighetsbolag har levererat goda resultat under många år då marknaden länge präglats av en stabil ekonomisk uppgång. Detta har föranlett till att branschen inte varit pressade till att följa samhällets digitala transformation. Under de senaste två till tre åren har man däremot kunnat identifiera en ny trend som lett till att många bolags förändringsvilja ökat. Denna rapport syftar följaktligen till att undersöka hur digitala verktyg och hjälpmedel kan effektivisera avyttrings-, förvärvs-, förvaltnings- och förmedlingsprocessen av kommersiella fastigheter. Branschfenomenet proptech och fastighetsdigitalisering har på senare tid förändrat branschen syn på digitalisering och värdet av digitala arbetsprocesser har blivit allt mer påtagligt. Detta har i sin tur resulterat i att branschen just nu genomgår en digital transformation där många bolag gör aktiva val att använda en bred skara digitala hjälpmedel för att effektivisera, spara kostnader eller stimulera intäkter. I och med denna transformation uppstår många frågor och oklarheter kring vilka för- respektive nackdelar som finns med att digitalisera. Genom flertalet intervjuer med representanter från en bred skara bolag så har branschens numera optimistiska inställning till vad som komma skall varit påtaglig. Samtliga intervjuade respondenter uttrycker att framtiden inom fastighetsbranschen kommer att vara digital. Rapporten kartlägger även varför vissa bolag är mer digitalt mogna än andra och hur framtiden kommer att se ut för branschen som helhet. / The real estate sector has long been a conservative industry with low activity for change. The reason for this is the industry's stable business concept, to rent out square meters. Real estate companies have delivered good results for many years as the market has long been characterized by a stable economic growth. This has led to real estate companies not being forced to follow society's digital transformation. Though, in the last two to three years a new trend has been seen which transformed many companies' willingness to change. This report aims to analyze how digital solutions and tools can streamline divestments-, acquisitions-, management- and brokerage process of commercial real estate. The industry phenomenon proptech and real estate digitization has recently changed the industry's view of digitization and the value of digital work processes has become more evident. This has resulted in the industry currently undergoing a digital transformation where many companies make active choices to use a wide range of digital tools to streamline the management process, save costs or stimulate revenue. With this transformation many questions and uncertainties arise regarding the advantages and disadvantages of digitalization. Through interviews with representatives from a wide range of companies, the industry's now optimistic approach to what is to come has been evident. All interviewed respondents express that the future within the real estate sector will be digital. The report also maps out why some companies are more digitally mature than others and what the future will look like for the industry.

This thesis discusses the general development of the Spanish property market over the last decade and future perspectives. A particular focus is on the city of Barcelona and the city’s local property market. The Spanish property market has since the latter half of 2007, beginning of 2008, dropped closer to 50 percent. Starting in the early years of the 21: st century, up to 2007 the Spanish construction sector in many ways drove the Spanish economy upwards. When the financial crisis hit, the economy stagnated and Spain fell into a deep recession. This resulted in an unemployment rate that as of today is running at 25 percent, weak domestic purchase power, an all-time high supply of property and a constantly declining number of property transactions. In May 2014 the country is at a junction trying to determine which way the Spanish property market is heading. Within some segments of the property market and in several areas where tourism is high there are, although weak, signs of growth in the property market prices. However in smaller regions with less tourism the property prices are still declining by up to 12 percent annually. The strong foreign demand on Spanish property contributes to a well-needed injection of foreign currency but these investments alone will not be enough to boost the Spanish economy. What we conclude is needed in order for property prices to increase in the long run is a stronger domestic purchase power, something we probably won’t see in years. Considering Barcelona, the city had the fourth most visitors of all the cities in Europe. This along with the unique culture, sports, food, and the constant stream of tourists as well as the modest property prices makes Barcelona an interesting city for property investment. In the thesis we compare investments being made in a hostel and short term housing for tourists. The result leads us to the conclusion that any property investment in Barcelona should be regarded as a risk and that you would need a steady stream of cash flow in order to hedge a continuing decline in property prices. Of the two options, short term housing for tourists would be the better of the two investments. / Sedan slutet av 2007, början av 2008 har de spanska fastighetspriserna sjunkit med närmare 50 procent. Åren innan krisen hade den expansiva spanska byggsektorn i mångt och mycket drivit ekonomin framåt och när den globala finanskrisen slog till med full kraft stagnerade den spanska ekonomin och vände ned i en djup recession. Detta resulterade i en arbetslöshet som idag uppgår till närmare 25 procent, svag inhemsk köpkraft, ett rekordstort utbud av fastigheter samt ett alltjämt sjunkande antal årliga transaktioner på bostadsmarknaden. I maj 2014 står vi i ett läge där det är svårt att sia om i vilken riktning den spanska fastighetsmarknaden är på väg. Inom vissa fastighetssegment och i flera turisttäta områden i Spanien ser man tendenser på en återhämtning samtidigt som mindre regioner med färre turister, årligen ser dubbelsiffriga nedgångar på fastighetsvärden. Den starka utländska efterfrågan på semesterbostäder och investeringsobjekt bidrar till en välbehövd injektion av utländskt kapital, men att det kan bidra med något annat än möjligtvis lokala värdeökningar har vi svårt att se. Vad vi tror krävs för en generell värdeökning av det spanska fastighetsbeståndet är en starkare inhemsk efterfråga, något som ligger flera år fram i tiden. Vi har vidare valt att fördjupa vårt arbete på staden Barcelona. Det finns indikationer på att stadens fastighetsmarknad börjar närma sig botten och med ett konstant tillflöde av turister skulle en investering i ett vandrarhem eller i korttidsboenden kunna ge en god avkastning fram tills dagen man väljer att avyttra fastigheten. I arbetet har vi jämfört två investeringsalternativ i Barcelona. Vandrarhemsverksamhet och bostadslägenheter för korttidsuthyrning till turister. Resultatet av arbetet leder oss till slutsatsen att en investering i den Spanska fastighetsmarknaden måste uppvägas av ett starkt kassaflöde. Vi finner därför alternativet korttidsboenden som den bästa investeringen av de två.

PropTech har kommit att bli ett världsomspännande fenomen inom fastighetsmarknaden. Digitaliseringens egenskaper gynnar hela spannet av ägare, investerare och hyresgäster. Kostnadseffektivisering, tidsoptimering och förnyandet av stereotypa processer är några av anledningarna till detta. I Sverige har intresset ökat kraftigt under den senaste tre årsperioden, men fastighetsbranschen är trögrörlig och det är först nu fastighetsbolagen börjar inse värdet av att tillämpa den nya tekniken. Syftet med rapporten är att få en marknadsbild av hur den svenska fastighetsbranschen ser på PropTech och digitalisering, samt undersöka hur bolagen ser på framtiden för det aktuella ämnet. Frågeställningen besvaras med hjälp av expertintervjuer som även ligger till grund för analysen. Uppfattningen om digitaliseringens betydelse varierar beroende på ägarstukturen och avkastningskrav, samtidigt står det klart att fastighetsägarens roll kommer att förändras i framtiden. / PropTech has become a worldwide phenomenon in the real estate market. The attribute of digitization benefit the entire range of owners, investors and tenants. Cost-efficiency, time optimization and the renewal of stereotypes are some of the reasons for this. In Sweden, interest has risen sharply over the past three years, but the real estate industry is slow moving and it is only until now that real estate companies begin to realize the value of applying the new technology. The purpose of the report is to get a market view of how the Swedish real estate industry defines PropTech and digitization, as well as investigate how companies look at the future of the subject. The problem is answered using expert interviews that also form the basis for the analysis. The perception of the significance of digitization varies depending on ownership and yield, while it is clear that the mission of a property owner will change in the future.